Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, March 25, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 16% | 89 | 85 | |
 | 5 | Magic | 84% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Bobcats | 16% | 82 | 83 |
 | 8 | Celtics | 84% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Pistons | 63% | 102 | 91 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bucks | 36% | 96 | 102 |
 | 13 | Knicks | 64% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Bulls | 69% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Timberwolves | 12% | 92 | 103 |
 | 9 | Thunder | 88% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 36% | 96 | 106 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Raptors | 37% | 102 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Lakers | 81% | 104 | 112 |
Thursday, March 24, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 12% | 93 | 96 |
 | 4 | Mavericks | 88% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 64% | 97 | 121 | |
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 54% | 95 | 111 |
| 27 | Bobcats | 46% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 61% | 98 | 98 | |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 39% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 15 | 76ers | 67% | 98 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 32% | 89 | 90 |
| 9 | Celtics | 68% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 102 | 100 |
| 23 | Pistons | 28% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 51% | 105 | 111 |
| 12 | Knicks | 49% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 32% | 90 | 97 |
| 17 | Bucks | 68% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 24% | 92 | 94 |
| 8 | Thunder | 76% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 29% | 101 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 24% | 99 | 106 |
| 10 | Suns | 76% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 41% | 101 | 112 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 59% | 104 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 19% | 94 | 119 |
| 19 | Clippers | 81% | 106 | 127 |
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 51% | 93 | 114 |
| 17 | Hawks | 49% | 92 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 10% | 88 | 76 |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 90% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 28% | 96 | 137 |
| 2 | Lakers | 72% | 104 | 139 |
Monday, March 21, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 84% | 105 | 97 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 16% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 56% | 96 | 102 |
| 26 | Nets | 44% | 94 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 53% | 101 | 96 |
| 11 | Knicks | 47% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 16% | 88 | 92 |
| 8 | Bulls | 84% | 101 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 30% | 94 | 85 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 70% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 18% | 96 | 96 |
| 5 | Spurs | 82% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 16% | 97 | 90 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 84% | 110 | 123 |
Sunday, March 20, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 59% | 97 | 92 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 41% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 36% | 93 | 96 |
| 17 | Hawks | 64% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 55% | 99 | 95 |
| 18 | Bucks | 45% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 43% | 101 | 127 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 57% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 56% | 104 | 108 |
| 20 | Clippers | 44% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 30% | 99 | 108 |
| 11 | Rockets | 70% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 20% | 95 | 95 |
| 9 | Thunder | 80% | 106 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 21% | 98 | 73 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 79% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 92 | 80 |
| 2 | Lakers | 69% | 98 | 84 |
Saturday, March 19, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 23% | 94 | 92 |
| 19 | Clippers | 77% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 32% | 96 | 98 |
| 2 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 31% | 94 | 78 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 69% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 42% | 89 | 89 |
| 14 | Hornets | 58% | 91 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 16% | 88 | 98 |
| 7 | Spurs | 84% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 23% | 91 | 101 |
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 77% | 100 | 110 |
Friday, March 18, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 59% | 95 | 108 |
| 21 | Pacers | 41% | 92 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 38% | 99 | 82 |
| 4 | Magic | 62% | 103 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 34% | 98 | 107 |
| 26 | Raptors | 66% | 103 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 62% | 95 | 106 |
| 17 | Hawks | 38% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 54% | 105 | 95 |
| 23 | Pistons | 46% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 21% | 88 | 82 |
| 9 | Thunder | 79% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 40% | 97 | 97 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 48% | 97 | 77 |
| 12 | Rockets | 52% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 36% | 88 | 95 | |
| 24 | Bucks | 64% | 93 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 35% | 103 | 97 |
| 15 | Suns | 65% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 60% | 100 | 102 |
| 25 | Kings | 40% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 98 |
| 1 | Lakers | 86% | 107 | 106 |
Thursday, March 17, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 66% | 95 | 84 |
| 22 | Nets | 34% | 90 | 73 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 39% | 101 | 99 |
| 11 | Knicks | 61% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 8% | 87 | 70 |
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 92% | 106 | 111 |
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 55% | 99 | 102 |
| 16 | Hawks | 45% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 21% | 89 | 80 |
| 9 | Celtics | 79% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 39% | 99 | 93 |
| 24 | Pistons | 61% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 28% | 92 | 96 |
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 69% | 95 | 93 |
| 22 | Bucks | 31% | 89 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 34% | 95 | 95 |
| 13 | Hornets | 66% | 100 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 27% | 94 | 78 |
| 12 | Rockets | 73% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 36% | 100 | 104 |
| 20 | Jazz | 64% | 104 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 30% | 96 | 97 |
| 25 | Kings | 70% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 103 | 112 |
| 18 | Warriors | 40% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 55% | 97 | 104 |
| 23 | Clippers | 45% | 95 | 94 |
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 38% | 87 | 85 |
| 16 | Hawks | 62% | 91 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 59% | 106 | 117 |
| 22 | Pacers | 41% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 9% | 84 | 79 |
| 7 | Bulls | 91% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 44% | 94 | 101 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 96 | 104 |
Monday, March 14, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 57% | 96 | 79 |
| 19 | Nets | 43% | 93 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 69% | 102 | 116 |
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 38% | 95 | 80 |
| 2 | Heat | 62% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 34% | 93 | 82 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 66% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 45% | 96 | 114 |
| 14 | Hornets | 55% | 98 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 30% | 102 | 93 |
| 12 | Rockets | 70% | 109 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 54% | 99 | 107 |
| 23 | Jazz | 46% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 49% | 102 | 119 |
| 28 | Kings | 51% | 103 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 30% | 94 | 84 |
| 1 | Lakers | 70% | 101 | 97 |
Sunday, March 13, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 78% | 105 | 95 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 22% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 47% | 96 | 95 |
| 26 | Raptors | 53% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 55% | 103 | 111 |
| 13 | Suns | 45% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 22% | 84 | 56 |
| 6 | Celtics | 78% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pacers | 26% | 98 | 106 |
| 10 | Knicks | 74% | 107 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 37% | 103 | 77 |
| 19 | Warriors | 63% | 108 | 100 |
Saturday, March 12, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 25% | 92 | 85 |
| 1 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 95 | 82 |
| 18 | Hawks | 40% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 53% | 99 | 122 |
| 29 | Wizards | 47% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 20% | 87 | 100 |
| 8 | Bulls | 80% | 98 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 49% | 91 | 74 |
| 20 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 21% | 90 | 103 |
| 16 | Hornets | 79% | 100 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 48% | 96 | 96 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 52% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 48% | 102 | 115 |
| 12 | Rockets | 52% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 24% | 96 | 101 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 76% | 105 | 131 |