Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, February 1, 10:13 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	13.8	23.2	19.0	17.3	73.3
BOS	East	99.8	18.2	26.8	19.8	15.9	80.7
NYK	East	99.7	11.2	20.2	18.0	17.3	66.6
CLE	East	99.4	13.6	21.6	19.5	16.6	71.2
TOR	East	88.5	2.2	4.9	8.1	8.3	23.5
PHI	East	82.5	2.0	4.4	7.4	7.8	21.6
ORL	East	80.7	2.6	5.4	8.8	8.5	25.2
MIA	East	80.8	2.4	5.0	8.5	8.4	24.2
ATL	East	34.8	0.6	1.4	2.6	2.7	7.3
CHI	East	16.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.0	2.6
CHA	East	16.9	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.3	3.5
MIL	East	0.8	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.8	33.9	16.9	9.5	94.1
SAS	West	99.4	9.0	17.3	16.8	17.1	60.3
HOU	West	99.6	10.7	19.0	18.2	17.0	64.8
DEN	West	98.2	6.4	13.2	14.8	15.5	49.9
MIN	West	96.5	6.4	12.1	15.4	14.5	48.4
PHX	West	93.0	3.4	7.1	10.7	11.0	32.2
LAL	West	73.9	1.1	2.8	4.8	5.2	13.9
GSW	West	80.1	3.4	6.6	10.2	9.1	29.4
LAC	West	34.9	0.4	1.1	2.0	1.8	5.3
POR	West	14.2	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7
MEM	West	9.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
DAL	West	1.2	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, February 1, 10:13 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	55.9			83.8	11.3
BOS	East	50.8			6.1	38.3
NYK	East	50.4			7.0	32.5
CLE	East	49.3			2.9	14.7
TOR	East	45.3			0.1	1.2
PHI	East	44.5			0.1	1.0
ORL	East	44.2			<0.1	0.4
MIA	East	44.1			<0.1	0.4
ATL	East	40.0				<0.1
CHI	East	37.9
CHA	East	37.8				<0.1
MIL	East	32.3
IND	East	26.0
BKN	East	25.1
WAS	East	21.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.0			99.6	0.4
SAS	West	52.1			0.3	40.6
HOU	West	51.9			0.1	32.3
DEN	West	50.1			0.1	14.0
MIN	West	49.3			<0.1	8.1
PHX	West	47.9			<0.1	3.8
LAL	West	45.2				0.5
GSW	West	45.0				0.4
LAC	West	40.6				<0.1
POR	West	38.3
MEM	West	36.0
DAL	West	32.9
NOP	West	25.3
UTA	West	24.4
SAC	West	22.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.