NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, November 24, 10:18 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE | East | 99.9 | 17.6 | 26.3 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 79.1 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 97.2 | 6.0 | 12.3 | 13.8 | 15.1 | 47.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 95.2 | 6.7 | 13.3 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 50.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 92.5 | 6.6 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 48.4 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 90.4 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 44.2 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 86.5 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 35.8 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 86.9 | 9.1 | 14.6 | 16.7 | 13.7 | 54.1 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 74.0 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 23.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 53.2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 14.7 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 13.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 10.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 100 | 37.6 | 34.2 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 95.7 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 99.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 19.5 | 16.6 | 79.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 98.5 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 16.9 | 16.5 | 58.8 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 96.7 | 4.5 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 94.5 | 7.1 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 14.0 | 49.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 85.4 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 31.4 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 83.3 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 25.4 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 46.7 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 31.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 16.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 2.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, November 24, 10:18 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 55.8 | 65.7 | 18.5 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 51.2 | 12.9 | 24.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 49.8 | 7.7 | 17.9 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 48.8 | 5.2 | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 48.1 | 3.4 | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 47.4 | 2.3 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 46.9 | 1.8 | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.4 | 1.0 | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 42.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 37.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 36.9 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 27.2 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 26.3 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 23.8 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 67.8 | 98.4 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 57.2 | 1.5 | 78.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.7 | <0.1 | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 49.4 | <0.1 | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 47.8 | <0.1 | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 45.8 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 45.5 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 40.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 40.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 38.7 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 36.7 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 32.2 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 26.2 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 24.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Luke Kennard - Nov 25, 2025
Trae Young - Nov 30, 2025
Kristaps Porzingis - Nov 25, 2025
N'Faly Dante - Dec 18, 2025
BKN
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
CHA
Ryan Kalkbrenner - Nov 26, 2025
Brandon Miller - Nov 26, 2025
Pat Connaughton - Nov 26, 2025
Grant Williams - Dec 1, 2025
LaMelo Ball - Nov 26, 2025
Josh Green - Dec 1, 2025
CHI
Trentyn Flowers - Nov 28, 2025
Zach Collins - Dec 1, 2025
Dalen Terry - Nov 28, 2025
Isaac Okoro - Nov 28, 2025
Patrick Williams - Nov 24, 2025
CLE
Sam Merrill - Nov 24, 2025
Lonzo Ball - Nov 24, 2025
Jarrett Allen - Nov 24, 2025
Craig Porter Jr. - Nov 24, 2025
Max Strus - Dec 1, 2025
DAL
D'Angelo Russell - Nov 24, 2025
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Nov 28, 2025
Anthony Davis - Nov 24, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
DEN
DET
Bobi Klintman - Nov 26, 2025
Marcus Sasser - Dec 18, 2025
GSW
HOU
Tari Eason - Dec 18, 2025
Kevin Durant - Nov 30, 2025
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Dorian Finney-Smith - Nov 30, 2025
IND
Johnny Furphy - Nov 26, 2025
Quenton Jackson - Nov 26, 2025
Obi Toppin - Feb 2, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Dec 18, 2025
Kam Jones - Dec 3, 2025
LAC
Derrick Jones Jr. - Dec 30, 2025
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
Bogdan Bogdanovic - Nov 25, 2025
Jordan Miller - Nov 25, 2025
MEM
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Nov 24, 2025
Javon Small - Dec 7, 2025
Ja Morant - Dec 2, 2025
Brandon Clarke - Dec 30, 2025
Ty Jerome - Jan 15, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Jan 15, 2026
MIA
Nikola Jovic - Nov 24, 2025
Terry Rozier - Dec 18, 2025
Andrew Wiggins - Nov 24, 2025
Tyler Herro - Nov 24, 2025
MIL
MIN
Terrence Shannon Jr. - Nov 24, 2025
NOP
Herbert Jones - Nov 26, 2025
Karlo Matkovic - Nov 26, 2025
Zion Williamson - Nov 24, 2025
Jordan Poole - Nov 26, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Jan 2, 2026
NYK
Landry Shamet - Nov 26, 2025
OG Anunoby - Dec 2, 2025
OKC
Kenrich Williams - Nov 30, 2025
Nikola Topic - Feb 20, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Jalen Williams - Nov 26, 2025
Aaron Wiggins - Nov 30, 2025
ORL
Wendell Carter Jr. - Nov 25, 2025
Paolo Banchero - Nov 25, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Nov 25, 2025
Moritz Wagner - Nov 25, 2025
Goga Bitadze - Nov 25, 2025
PHI
Joel Embiid - Nov 25, 2025
Adem Bona - Nov 28, 2025
VJ Edgecombe - Nov 25, 2025
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Dec 4, 2025
PHX
Grayson Allen - Nov 24, 2025
Jalen Green - Dec 18, 2025
Ryan Dunn - Nov 24, 2025
Rasheer Fleming - Nov 24, 2025
POR
Matisse Thybulle - Dec 2, 2025
Blake Wesley - Jan 30, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Nov 24, 2025
Scoot Henderson - Dec 20, 2025
Jrue Holiday - Dec 5, 2025
Robert Williams III - Nov 24, 2025
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
SAC
Domantas Sabonis - Dec 18, 2025
SAS
Jordan McLaughlin - Nov 26, 2025
Stephon Castle - Nov 30, 2025
Dylan Harper - Nov 30, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Dec 2, 2025
TOR
Jakob Poeltl - Nov 24, 2025
UTA
Georges Niang - Dec 7, 2025
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
Marvin Bagley III - Nov 25, 2025
AJ Johnson - Nov 25, 2025
Tre Johnson - Nov 25, 2025
Khris Middleton - Nov 25, 2025