NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, March 24, 10:02 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 13.5 | 23.8 | 19.2 | 17.9 | 74.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 19.9 | 28.7 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 84.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 14.1 | 23.9 | 19.1 | 17.8 | 74.9 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 17.1 | 26.7 | 19.9 | 16.8 | 80.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 89.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 70.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 60.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 64.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 15.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 61.6 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 17.2 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 54.3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 33.3 | 34.0 | 17.2 | 9.9 | 94.3 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 17.4 | 27.0 | 19.6 | 16.6 | 80.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 99.9 | 6.5 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 17.4 | 53.7 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 99.9 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 17.7 | 66.1 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.8 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 39.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 99.2 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 39.6 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 80.1 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 13.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 56.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 30.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 33.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, March 24, 10:02 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.5 | 98.6 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.2 | 1.2 | 60.4 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.9 | 0.2 | 33.8 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.9 | <0.1 | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.8 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 44.5 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.1 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 44.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 43.8 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 33.3 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 33.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 18.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.3 | 93.6 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 60.9 | 6.4 | 93.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.3 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.8 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.8 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.4 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.4 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 41.9 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.9 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 40.2 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 29.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 27.5 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.1 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Jalen Johnson - Mar 25, 2026
BKN
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Drake Powell - Mar 25, 2026
Danny Wolf - Mar 27, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Terance Mann - Mar 25, 2026
Noah Clowney - Mar 27, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 26, 2026
CHI
Anfernee Simons - Mar 25, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Guerschon Yabusele - Mar 25, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Mar 25, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Mar 27, 2026
CLE
Olivier Sarr - Mar 25, 2026
Craig Porter Jr. - Mar 30, 2026
Jarrett Allen - Mar 25, 2026
Jaylon Tyson - Mar 25, 2026
DAL
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Williams - Mar 25, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 27, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
Peyton Watson - Mar 25, 2026
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Mar 28, 2026
Marcus Sasser - Mar 25, 2026
Bobi Klintman - Mar 25, 2026
Wendell Moore Jr. - Mar 25, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
GSW
Al Horford - Mar 27, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Quinten Post - Mar 27, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 27, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 27, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
Bennedict Mathurin - Mar 25, 2026
John Collins - Mar 25, 2026
LAL
Rui Hachimura - Mar 25, 2026
Marcus Smart - Mar 25, 2026
MEM
Brandon Clarke - Mar 27, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Mar 25, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Javon Small - Mar 25, 2026
Cedric Coward - Mar 25, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 27, 2026
Cam Spencer - Mar 25, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
MIA
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
Jahmir Young - Mar 26, 2026
MIL
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Kyle Kuzma - Mar 25, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 28, 2026
Gary Harris - Mar 28, 2026
MIN
Anthony Edwards - Mar 28, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 26, 2026
NYK
Landry Shamet - Mar 26, 2026
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
OKC
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
ORL
Anthony Black - Mar 26, 2026
Jalen Suggs - Mar 26, 2026
Franz Wagner - Mar 26, 2026
Jonathan Isaac - Mar 26, 2026
PHI
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
Joel Embiid - Mar 25, 2026
Quentin Grimes - Mar 25, 2026
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
PHX
Mark Williams - Mar 28, 2026
Haywood Highsmith - Mar 28, 2026
Amir Coffey - Mar 28, 2026
Dillon Brooks - Mar 28, 2026
POR
Vit Krejci - Mar 25, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 2, 2026
Robert Williams III - Mar 25, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Jerami Grant - Mar 25, 2026
SAC
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Mar 26, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
Nique Clifford - Apr 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 28, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Mar 26, 2026
SAS
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 27, 2026
Brandon Ingram - Mar 25, 2026
Immanuel Quickley - Mar 25, 2026
Jakob Poeltl - Mar 25, 2026
UTA
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Cody Williams - Mar 25, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Mar 27, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
WAS
Trae Young - Mar 27, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Alex Sarr - Mar 27, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Tre Johnson - Mar 27, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026