Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, December 21, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
NYK	East	99.8	12.6	21.4	18.3	17.0	69.2
DET	East	99.7	9.0	16.9	16.5	16.6	59.0
BOS	East	99.5	15.7	23.8	19.5	16.2	75.2
ORL	East	97.8	7.6	14.8	15.9	15.2	53.5
CLE	East	95.7	9.1	15.8	17.4	15.0	57.4
PHI	East	84.4	2.4	5.4	8.6	8.7	25.2
MIA	East	83.9	3.0	6.2	9.7	9.6	28.3
TOR	East	62.2	1.2	2.7	4.7	5.1	13.8
ATL	East	61.9	1.6	3.3	6.0	5.9	16.7
CHI	East	9.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.1
MIL	East	4.7	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
CHA	East	0.7	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.3			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	0.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.0	33.7	16.0	8.4	95.2
HOU	West	99.9	16.6	25.6	19.7	16.4	78.3
DEN	West	99.2	8.0	15.7	16.3	16.8	56.8
SAS	West	97.6	5.9	11.3	13.8	14.2	45.2
MIN	West	92.8	4.4	9.0	12.2	11.6	37.2
GSW	West	93.2	6.3	11.7	14.8	13.0	45.8
LAL	West	89.8	2.2	4.9	7.9	8.6	23.6
MEM	West	63.0	1.4	2.7	4.9	4.5	13.5
PHX	West	37.2	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.2	3.0
POR	West	12.7	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7
DAL	West	8.7	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
LAC	West	5.6	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
NOP	West	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, December 21, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
NYK	East	53.3			39.7	24.8
DET	East	52.7			31.1	27.2
BOS	East	51.4			17.9	22.5
ORL	East	49.2			6.4	12.9
CLE	East	47.9			3.1	7.9
PHI	East	45.4			0.8	2.3
MIA	East	45.0			0.6	1.8
TOR	East	42.2			0.1	0.3
ATL	East	42.0			0.1	0.3
CHI	East	34.1
MIL	East	32.2
CHA	East	28.6
BKN	East	26.6
IND	East	25.3
WAS	East	18.6
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.6			99.2	0.8
HOU	West	56.6			0.7	71.1
DEN	West	52.3			0.1	15.5
SAS	West	50.5			<0.1	7.9
MIN	West	48.1			<0.1	2.1
GSW	West	47.5				1.2
LAL	West	47.3			<0.1	1.4
MEM	West	42.3				<0.1
PHX	West	40.5				<0.1
POR	West	36.5				<0.1
DAL	West	35.2
LAC	West	34.2
NOP	West	27.0
UTA	West	26.1
SAC	West	23.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.