Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, January 18, 10:15 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	13.5	22.5	18.9	17.4	72.3
BOS	East	99.9	20.1	28.0	19.8	15.5	83.4
CLE	East	98.9	12.9	20.9	19.2	16.4	69.4
NYK	East	98.6	8.3	15.5	16.6	16.2	56.6
ORL	East	91.3	3.9	8.3	11.3	11.5	35.0
MIA	East	88.2	3.1	6.5	9.6	9.9	29.0
TOR	East	86.2	2.2	4.9	8.3	8.4	23.7
PHI	East	82.5	2.1	4.7	7.4	7.8	22.0
ATL	East	33.5	0.5	1.1	2.2	2.4	6.2
CHI	East	10.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
MIL	East	6.9	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7
CHA	East	3.3	<0.1	<0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4
BKN	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	34.9	34.0	16.6	9.0	94.6
SAS	West	99.5	7.9	16.0	15.7	16.6	56.2
HOU	West	99.3	10.7	19.5	18.5	16.9	65.6
DEN	West	98.7	6.8	13.9	15.4	15.7	51.8
MIN	West	96.1	5.6	11.2	13.9	13.9	44.4
GSW	West	93.3	6.4	12.2	15.2	13.5	47.4
PHX	West	85.8	2.2	4.9	7.9	8.3	23.3
LAL	West	55.5	0.6	1.4	2.7	2.9	7.6
LAC	West	29.2	0.4	0.8	1.5	1.5	4.1
POR	West	18.6	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.5
MEM	West	23.9	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.2	3.5
DAL	West	0.2		<0.1		<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
SAC	West
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, January 18, 10:15 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	54.6			64.2	23.3
BOS	East	52.4			26.7	44.0
CLE	East	48.9			3.7	12.5
NYK	East	48.8			4.3	14.2
ORL	East	45.6			0.5	2.4
MIA	East	45.0			0.2	1.5
TOR	East	44.4			0.2	1.0
PHI	East	44.0			0.1	1.0
ATL	East	38.9			<0.1	<0.1
CHI	East	35.4				<0.1
MIL	East	34.3
CHA	East	32.7
BKN	East	27.7
IND	East	24.2
WAS	East	20.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.1			99.7	0.3
SAS	West	52.8			0.2	40.6
HOU	West	52.0			<0.1	27.5
DEN	West	51.2			0.1	18.1
MIN	West	49.8			<0.1	8.2
GSW	West	48.1				3.6
PHX	West	46.9				1.5
LAL	West	43.4				0.1
LAC	West	40.3				<0.1
POR	West	39.5
MEM	West	39.3				<0.1
DAL	West	31.2
UTA	West	25.6
SAC	West	25.1
NOP	West	22.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.