Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, January 28, 10:14 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	14.7	23.6	19.3	17.2	74.8
BOS	East	99.9	19.6	27.8	20.1	15.3	82.8
CLE	East	99.5	14.0	22.4	19.5	16.7	72.7
NYK	East	98.6	8.5	15.8	16.5	16.2	57.0
TOR	East	94.4	3.3	7.1	10.2	10.8	31.3
MIA	East	88.1	3.1	6.5	9.9	9.9	29.5
PHI	East	78.2	1.8	4.2	6.9	7.1	20.0
ORL	East	68.4	1.8	3.9	6.8	6.6	19.0
ATL	East	41.3	0.6	1.5	3.0	3.2	8.4
CHI	East	22.6	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.2	3.1
CHA	East	7.3	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
MIL	East	1.6	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.5	33.8	17.2	9.5	94.1
HOU	West	99.7	12.9	21.8	19.2	17.3	71.2
SAS	West	99.4	9.3	17.3	17.4	17.4	61.4
DEN	West	97.8	7.4	14.5	15.6	15.7	53.2
MIN	West	91.1	5.1	9.9	13.0	12.2	40.1
PHX	West	85.0	2.5	5.2	8.1	8.5	24.3
LAL	West	80.0	1.5	3.7	6.1	6.5	17.9
GSW	West	78.9	3.3	6.4	9.9	8.8	28.4
LAC	West	36.0	0.5	1.3	2.2	2.2	6.3
POR	West	16.2	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	1.2
MEM	West	14.9	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.7	2.0
DAL	West	1.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
UTA	West
NOP	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, January 28, 10:14 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	56.0			81.6	12.8
BOS	East	51.9			11.1	50.8
CLE	East	49.9			4.3	17.9
NYK	East	48.7			2.4	13.6
TOR	East	46.6			0.5	3.1
MIA	East	45.2			0.1	1.2
PHI	East	43.8			<0.1	0.5
ORL	East	42.6			<0.1	0.1
ATL	East	40.2				<0.1
CHI	East	38.2				<0.1
CHA	East	35.3
MIL	East	32.5
IND	East	25.0
BKN	East	24.5
WAS	East	21.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.0			99.8	0.2
HOU	West	52.2			0.1	43.3
SAS	West	51.8			0.1	36.8
DEN	West	49.2			<0.1	13.3
MIN	West	47.4			<0.1	3.4
PHX	West	46.1				1.3
LAL	West	45.9				1.2
GSW	West	45.0				0.5
LAC	West	41.0				<0.1
POR	West	39.1
MEM	West	37.6
DAL	West	33.3
UTA	West	25.4
NOP	West	24.8
SAC	West	23.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.