Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, April 4, 10:00 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	14.0	23.8	19.2	17.6	74.6
BOS	East	100	21.4	29.6	19.3	15.4	85.8
NYK	East	100	12.1	22.1	18.3	18.7	71.3
CLE	East	100	12.7	22.9	18.9	18.3	72.8
ATL	East	97.4	1.9	4.3	8.5	8.4	23.2
PHI	East	90.9	2.3	4.9	9.2	8.8	25.3
TOR	East	83.2	1.6	3.3	6.4	6.3	17.5
CHA	East	50.0	1.4	2.6	5.2	4.6	13.9
ORL	East	41.0	0.5	1.1	2.3	2.4	6.2
MIA	East	37.6	0.8	1.8	3.5	3.4	9.5
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	34.6	34.4	16.6	9.3	94.9
SAS	West	100	18.7	28.2	19.6	16.3	82.7
LAL	West	100	1.4	4.0	5.3	8.6	19.3
DEN	West	100	10.3	18.7	17.9	17.8	64.7
HOU	West	100	9.5	14.6	17.0	13.4	54.5
MIN	West	99.8	11.8	17.0	19.3	13.0	61.1
PHX	West	81.8	1.1	2.4	4.8	4.6	12.9
POR	West	49.9	0.3	0.6	1.6	1.6	4.1
LAC	West	50.1	0.3	0.8	1.8	2.0	4.9
GSW	West	18.4	<0.1	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.8
NOP	West
MEM	West
DAL	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, April 4, 10:00 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	59.3			99.9	0.1
BOS	East	55.6			0.1	96.7
NYK	East	52.4				3.2
CLE	East	51.8				<0.1
ATL	East	46.6
PHI	East	45.7
TOR	East	45.4
CHA	East	43.7
ORL	East	43.6
MIA	East	43.3
MIL	East	32.3
CHI	East	31.0
BKN	East	19.7
IND	East	19.7
WAS	East	18.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.9			92.7	7.3
SAS	West	62.5			7.3	92.7
LAL	West	52.1
DEN	West	51.8
HOU	West	50.9
MIN	West	48.7
PHX	West	45.0
POR	West	41.9
LAC	West	41.9
GSW	West	39.1
NOP	West	26.5
MEM	West	26.4
DAL	West	25.6
UTA	West	22.1
SAC	West	21.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.