NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Sunday, March 22, 4:37 PM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 12.9 | 22.8 | 18.7 | 17.9 | 72.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 19.7 | 28.6 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 83.7 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.9 | 23.4 | 19.1 | 18.0 | 74.4 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 16.2 | 25.9 | 19.7 | 17.0 | 78.8 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 90.7 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 73.4 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 17.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 69.7 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 21.6 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 58.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 58.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 49.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 13.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 32.4 | 33.9 | 17.7 | 10.0 | 94.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 16.6 | 26.3 | 19.6 | 17.2 | 79.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 99.9 | 6.7 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 17.2 | 53.4 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 99.9 | 10.6 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 17.0 | 66.2 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.9 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 13.6 | 40.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 98.5 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 38.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 80.7 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 15.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 55.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 35.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 29.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Sunday, March 22, 4:37 PM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.9 | 92.6 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 55.0 | 6.8 | 68.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 53.0 | 0.5 | 22.9 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.9 | <0.1 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.2 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 44.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.4 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.3 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 44.2 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 43.3 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 33.7 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.1 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 18.9 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.2 | 95.0 | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 60.3 | 5.0 | 95.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.7 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.6 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.5 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.5 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 44.9 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 41.7 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 41.1 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 39.6 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 29.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 27.9 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.5 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.2 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Jalen Johnson - Mar 23, 2026
BKN
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Terance Mann - Mar 22, 2026
Noah Clowney - Mar 23, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Nic Claxton - Mar 23, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 24, 2026
CHI
Jalen Smith - Mar 23, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 23, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Mar 23, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Mar 23, 2026
CLE
Jaylon Tyson - Mar 24, 2026
Jarrett Allen - Mar 24, 2026
Olivier Sarr - Mar 24, 2026
Craig Porter Jr. - Mar 24, 2026
Tyrese Proctor - Mar 24, 2026
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 23, 2026
Moussa Cisse - Mar 22, 2026
Brandon Williams - Mar 23, 2026
DEN
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
Peyton Watson - Mar 22, 2026
DET
Kevin Huerter - Mar 23, 2026
Marcus Sasser - Mar 25, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
Wendell Moore Jr. - Mar 22, 2026
Isaiah Stewart - Mar 28, 2026
GSW
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Kristaps Porzingis - Mar 23, 2026
Al Horford - Mar 25, 2026
Gary Payton II - Mar 23, 2026
Moses Moody - Mar 23, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 25, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 25, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
IND
LAC
LAL
Maxi Kleber - Mar 23, 2026
MEM
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 25, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Cedric Coward - Mar 25, 2026
Ty Jerome - Mar 23, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Mar 25, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Mar 27, 2026
MIA
Jaime Jaquez Jr. - Mar 23, 2026
Andrew Wiggins - Mar 23, 2026
Norman Powell - Mar 23, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
MIL
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 23, 2026
Gary Harris - Mar 23, 2026
Bobby Portis - Mar 23, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 28, 2026
MIN
Naz Reid - Mar 22, 2026
Anthony Edwards - Mar 25, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 24, 2026
NYK
OKC
Jalen Williams - Mar 23, 2026
Luguentz Dort - Mar 23, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Branden Carlson - Mar 23, 2026
ORL
PHI
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
Joel Embiid - Mar 25, 2026
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
PHX
Royce O'Neale - Mar 22, 2026
Mark Williams - Mar 28, 2026
Grayson Allen - Mar 24, 2026
Dillon Brooks - Mar 24, 2026
Haywood Highsmith - Mar 24, 2026
Amir Coffey - Mar 24, 2026
POR
SAC
Russell Westbrook - Mar 24, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Mar 24, 2026
Nique Clifford - Mar 22, 2026
Malik Monk - Mar 22, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 28, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
TOR
Collin Murray-Boyles - Mar 22, 2026
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 23, 2026
UTA
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Mar 23, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Brice Sensabaugh - Mar 23, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
WAS
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Tre Johnson - Mar 25, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 25, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Leaky Black - Mar 25, 2026