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NBA Season Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
A premium subscription is required to unlock all columns of data.
NBA Cup Probabilities
Updated Thursday, October 29, 6:24 AM
· The NBA Cup knockout round is an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wildcard from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, October 29, 6:24 AM
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
BOS  | East | 56.8 | 7.9 | 37.3 | 20.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | |||||||||||
DET  | East | 52.4 | 16.2 | 19.4 | 18.5 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | |||||||||||
NYK  | East | 49.0 | 24.3 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 | |||||||||||
TOR  | East | 48.9 | 24.8 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 4.4 | |||||||||||
CLE  | East | 44.5 | 35.5 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 7.6 | |||||||||||
MIA  | East | 42.9 | 37.7 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 8.4 | |||||||||||
ATL  | East | 42.5 | 38.1 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | |||||||||||
PHI  | East | 41.8 | 39.6 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | |||||||||||
IND  | East | 41.4 | 40.1 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 9.7 | |||||||||||
ORL  | East | 41.1 | 39.6 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.8 | |||||||||||
CHA  | East | 38.9 | 41.4 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 11.8 | |||||||||||
WAS  | East | 27.4 | 18.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 7.2 | |||||||||||
CHI  | East | 26.7 | 16.7 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | |||||||||||
BKN  | East | 23.6 | 10.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 4.7 | |||||||||||
MIL  | East | 23.0 | 9.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.2 | |||||||||||
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
SAS  | West | 59.7 | 5.8 | 38.3 | 22.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
OKC  | West | 56.3 | 10.8 | 23.0 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | |||||||||||
HOU  | West | 54.7 | 14.7 | 18.4 | 18.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | |||||||||||
POR  | West | 47.8 | 30.5 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | |||||||||||
LAL  | West | 47.2 | 32.0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 6.0 | |||||||||||
MIN  | West | 44.9 | 37.6 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 7.6 | |||||||||||
DEN  | West | 44.2 | 37.6 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | |||||||||||
GSW  | West | 43.7 | 38.4 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | |||||||||||
MEM  | West | 39.6 | 40.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 10.9 | |||||||||||
DAL  | West | 39.2 | 39.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 10.9 | |||||||||||
PHX  | West | 37.9 | 37.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 10.7 | |||||||||||
LAC  | West | 35.2 | 33.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 10.6 | |||||||||||
UTA  | West | 31.0 | 23.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.8 | |||||||||||
NOP  | West | 27.2 | 14.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 5.8 | |||||||||||
SAC  | West | 20.4 | 4.0 | <0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, October 29, 6:24 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| BOS | East | 96.2 | 22.8 | 24.7 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 74.5 | |||||||||||||||
| DET | East | 90.2 | 11.8 | 16.9 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 53.8 | |||||||||||||||
| NYK | East | 83.7 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 50.5 | |||||||||||||||
| TOR | East | 82.8 | 10.4 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 47.7 | |||||||||||||||
| CLE | East | 69.0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 29.9 | |||||||||||||||
| MIA | East | 64.1 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 27.2 | |||||||||||||||
| ATL | East | 62.2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 26.5 | |||||||||||||||
| PHI | East | 58.8 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||
| IND | East | 58.3 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 24.4 | |||||||||||||||
| ORL | East | 57.4 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 21.8 | |||||||||||||||
| CHA | East | 48.1 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 16.6 | |||||||||||||||
| WAS | East | 10.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
| CHI | East | 9.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
| BKN | East | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
| MIL | East | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| SAS | West | 97.5 | 26.4 | 26.6 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 79.4 | |||||||||||||||
| OKC | West | 94.2 | 16.2 | 21.2 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 64.1 | |||||||||||||||
| HOU | West | 91.5 | 17.0 | 20.5 | 13.8 | 11.4 | 62.7 | |||||||||||||||
| POR | West | 75.6 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 38.6 | |||||||||||||||
| LAL | West | 74.1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 36.8 | |||||||||||||||
| MIN | West | 65.4 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 25.5 | |||||||||||||||
| DEN | West | 62.3 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 25.0 | |||||||||||||||
| GSW | West | 61.2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 24.3 | |||||||||||||||
| MEM | West | 44.0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||
| DAL | West | 41.8 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||
| PHX | West | 38.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||
| LAC | West | 28.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||
| UTA | West | 15.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||
| NOP | West | 8.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
| SAC | West | 1.8 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Injured players and estimated return date
ATL
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Nov 20, 2026
BKN
Tyler Bilodeau · Oct 30, 2026
BOS
Devin Carter · Nov 8, 2026
CHA
Grant Williams · Nov 2, 2026
Coby White · Nov 2, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Nov 2, 2026
Kon Knueppel · Nov 2, 2026
CHI
CLE
Khalifa Diop · Oct 29, 2026
Nae'Qwan Tomlin · Nov 16, 2026
DAL
Sergio de Larrea · Oct 30, 2026
Tarik Biberovic · Oct 29, 2026
Naji Marshall · Oct 29, 2026
Dereck Lively II · Nov 2, 2026
Santi Aldama · Oct 29, 2026
DEN
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
Spencer Jones · Oct 29, 2026
Cameron Johnson · Oct 29, 2026
Alpha Diallo · Oct 29, 2026
DET
Isaiah Joe · Oct 29, 2026
Jalen Duren · Nov 9, 2026
GSW
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
Gui Santos · Oct 30, 2026
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Kristaps Porziņģis · Dec 1, 2026
HOU
IND
Johnny Furphy · Jan 2, 2027
Ben Sheppard · Jan 2, 2027
T.J. McConnell · Oct 29, 2026
Ivica Zubac · Oct 29, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton · Oct 29, 2026
LAC
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Bradley Beal · Nov 8, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 8, 2026
Rui Hachimura · Oct 30, 2026
Brandon Ingram · Nov 8, 2026
Max Strus · Nov 8, 2026
LAL
Ziaire Williams · Oct 30, 2026
Adou Thiero · Oct 29, 2026
Luka Doncic · Oct 30, 2026
Cameron Carr · Oct 29, 2026
MIA
Simone Fontecchio · Oct 30, 2026
MIN
Anthony Edwards · Oct 29, 2026
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
NOP
Yves Missi · Nov 2, 2026
NYK
Jose Alvarado · Oct 29, 2026
OKC
Nikola Topic · Oct 29, 2026
Thomas Sorber · Oct 29, 2026
Alex Caruso · Nov 4, 2026
Cason Wallace · Mar 2, 2027
Jalen Williams · Mar 2, 2027
Otega Oweh · Jul 1, 2027
Chet Holmgren · Oct 29, 2026
ORL
Jonathan Isaac · Oct 29, 2026
Noah Penda · Nov 18, 2026
Paolo Banchero · Nov 21, 2026
Jalen Suggs · Nov 9, 2026
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
PHI
Dominick Barlow · Nov 4, 2026
Tacko Fall · Oct 29, 2026
Ariel Hukporti · Oct 1, 2027
Jabari Walker · Oct 29, 2026
PHX
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
Oso Ighodaro · Oct 30, 2026
POR
Chris Youngblood · Oct 29, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe · Mar 2, 2027
SAC
Keegan Murray · Nov 6, 2026
Maxime Raynaud · Nov 10, 2026
Ben Simmons · Oct 1, 2027
Dylan Cardwell · Nov 6, 2026
SAS
Jayden Quaintance · Dec 3, 2026
Tobias Harris · Oct 29, 2026
TOR
Kawhi Leonard · Nov 23, 2026
Nate Bittle · Oct 29, 2026
UTA
Jusuf Nurkić · Nov 4, 2026
Trey Alexander · Oct 29, 2026
Lauri Markkanen · Oct 31, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Dec 14, 2026
WAS
Jamir Watkins · Apr 2, 2027
Justin Champagnie · Feb 25, 2027
Tre Johnson · Oct 30, 2026
Tristan Vukcevic · Nov 2, 2026
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.