Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, November 23, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.8	16.3	25.1	19.1	16.3	76.8
DET	East	97.0	6.1	12.4	14.1	15.1	47.7
ORL	East	93.4	6.6	12.8	14.8	14.7	48.9
MIA	East	91.4	5.8	11.2	13.8	13.7	44.6
NYK	East	91.5	6.3	12.4	14.7	14.1	47.6
ATL	East	85.9	4.3	8.9	12.0	11.8	36.9
BOS	East	85.8	8.8	14.6	16.5	13.6	53.5
TOR	East	70.9	2.1	4.7	7.2	8.0	22.0
PHI	East	61.1	1.7	3.9	6.3	6.6	18.6
CHI	East	13.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.8	2.0
MIL	East	10.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.5
CHA	East	0.1			<0.1		<0.1
IND	East	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.5	34.4	15.9	8.5	95.3
HOU	West	99.9	17.2	26.5	19.4	16.6	79.7
DEN	West	98.9	8.8	17.0	17.1	16.3	59.2
LAL	West	96.0	4.5	9.6	12.5	13.3	39.9
GSW	West	94.3	6.8	12.8	15.2	14.2	49.1
SAS	West	84.8	2.7	6.0	9.1	9.1	26.9
MIN	West	84.9	3.5	6.9	10.1	9.6	30.1
MEM	West	43.9	0.8	1.6	2.9	2.9	8.1
LAC	West	39.9	0.5	1.3	2.4	2.3	6.6
PHX	West	34.6	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.3	3.3
POR	West	20.4	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.9
DAL	West	2.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, November 23, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	55.1			59.7	19.9
DET	East	51.2			15.0	23.6
ORL	East	49.3			7.1	14.5
MIA	East	48.7			5.8	12.3
NYK	East	48.7			5.9	11.5
ATL	East	47.4			2.8	7.6
BOS	East	46.8			2.2	5.8
TOR	East	45.2			1.2	3.2
PHI	East	43.9			0.4	1.7
CHI	East	37.6			<0.1	<0.1
MIL	East	36.8			<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	26.9
IND	East	26.3
BKN	East	23.9
WAS	East	15.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.5			98.0	2.0
HOU	West	57.4			1.9	77.4
DEN	West	51.3			0.1	12.1
LAL	West	49.2			<0.1	4.4
GSW	West	47.8				2.4
SAS	West	45.9			<0.1	0.9
MIN	West	45.8				0.7
MEM	West	40.1				<0.1
LAC	West	39.8				<0.1
PHX	West	39.7				<0.1
POR	West	37.5
DAL	West	32.2
SAC	West	26.1
UTA	West	23.4
NOP	West	22.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.