Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, December 14, 10:20 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
BOS	East	100	29.2	32.3	18.7	11.3	91.6
CLE	East	99.9	16.7	25.2	19.7	16.4	77.9
ORL	East	99.8	10.8	18.8	18.4	16.9	64.8
NYK	East	99.5	9.8	17.7	17.6	17.0	62.1
MIA	East	94.8	4.3	8.7	12.4	12.3	37.7
MIL	East	94.0	3.4	7.3	11.1	11.2	33.0
ATL	East	64.4	1.0	2.3	4.1	4.5	11.9
IND	East	44.1	0.5	1.2	2.5	2.7	7.0
PHI	East	41.7	0.7	1.6	3.0	3.1	8.4
CHI	East	23.4	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.9	2.2
BKN	East	20.3	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	2.1
DET	East	10.8	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9
TOR	East	4.5	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
CHA	East	2.6	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	99.9	20.9	28.4	20.2	15.0	84.5
DAL	West	98.4	10.5	18.8	18.1	17.2	64.6
HOU	West	94.8	6.3	13.0	14.6	15.0	48.9
MEM	West	93.4	6.3	12.6	14.8	14.7	48.4
GSW	West	86.9	4.9	9.9	12.4	12.6	39.8
DEN	West	76.1	3.1	6.4	9.4	9.6	28.6
MIN	West	77.8	4.3	8.4	11.2	10.7	34.5
LAC	West	60.3	1.9	4.3	6.7	6.8	19.8
PHX	West	54.2	1.5	3.4	5.3	5.4	15.6
SAC	West	44.1	1.5	3.0	4.6	4.7	13.6
LAL	West	8.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	1.1
SAS	West	5.6	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7
NOP	West	<0.1		<0.1			<0.1
POR	West	<0.1
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, December 14, 10:20 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
BOS	East	60.1			80.4	17.6
CLE	East	55.7			18.1	65.2
ORL	East	49.6			0.9	9.5
NYK	East	48.6			0.6	6.2
MIA	East	44.7			<0.1	0.9
MIL	East	44.3			<0.1	0.6
ATL	East	39.4				<0.1
IND	East	37.1				<0.1
PHI	East	36.4				<0.1
CHI	East	34.9				<0.1
BKN	East	34.5
DET	East	32.8
TOR	East	30.6
CHA	East	29.8
WAS	East	18.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	60.5			92.6	6.1
DAL	West	52.1			4.0	40.5
HOU	West	49.8			1.5	19.5
MEM	West	49.5			1.2	15.3
GSW	West	48.0			0.4	9.6
DEN	West	46.2			0.1	3.4
MIN	West	46.0			0.1	2.9
LAC	West	44.3			<0.1	1.2
PHX	West	43.7			<0.1	1.0
SAC	West	42.6			<0.1	0.5
LAL	West	37.8				<0.1
SAS	West	37.0				<0.1
NOP	West	27.2
POR	West	25.3
UTA	West	22.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.