NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Saturday, March 28, 10:01 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 19.1 | 17.7 | 74.8 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 19.8 | 28.9 | 19.9 | 15.6 | 84.2 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.8 | 23.9 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 74.8 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 15.1 | 24.7 | 19.4 | 17.4 | 76.7 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 87.2 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 17.1 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 75.2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 64.1 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 56.9 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 13.6 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 61.9 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 54.6 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 35.0 | 34.2 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 95.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 17.4 | 26.7 | 19.9 | 16.6 | 80.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 99.9 | 7.2 | 15.7 | 15.6 | 17.9 | 56.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 10.3 | 19.9 | 18.5 | 18.2 | 66.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 99.8 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 38.3 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.9 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 38.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 80.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 68.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 25.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 25.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Saturday, March 28, 10:01 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.3 | 97.5 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 55.0 | 2.5 | 77.5 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.8 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.8 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 45.1 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.6 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 44.1 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 44.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 43.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 32.8 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.3 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.3 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 63.9 | 89.5 | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 61.2 | 10.5 | 89.5 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.7 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 51.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.7 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.7 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 44.9 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.8 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.6 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 39.9 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 27.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 26.8 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.6 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 22.4 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jock Landale - Mar 28, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
BKN
Danny Wolf - Mar 29, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
Jaylen Brown - Mar 29, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Apr 5, 2026
Liam McNeeley - Mar 28, 2026
CHI
Yuki Kawamura - Mar 28, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 28, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2026
Jalen Smith - Oct 1, 2026
Nick Richards - Mar 28, 2026
CLE
DAL
Daniel Gafford - Mar 30, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 30, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Khris Middleton - Mar 30, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
Duncan Robinson - Mar 28, 2026
Caris LeVert - Mar 28, 2026
Isaiah Stewart - Mar 30, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
GSW
De'Anthony Melton - Mar 29, 2026
Quinten Post - Mar 29, 2026
Moses Moody - Dec 1, 2026
Al Horford - Apr 5, 2026
Stephen Curry - Apr 1, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 29, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Adou Thiero - Mar 30, 2026
Marcus Smart - Mar 30, 2026
MEM
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Mar 28, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Mar 28, 2026
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2026
Ty Jerome - Mar 28, 2026
MIA
Jahmir Young - Mar 29, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
MIL
Myles Turner - Mar 28, 2026
Bobby Portis - Mar 28, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 29, 2026
Gary Harris - Mar 28, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 29, 2026
Kyle Kuzma - Mar 28, 2026
MIN
NOP
NYK
OKC
ORL
PHI
PHX
Amir Coffey - Mar 30, 2026
Haywood Highsmith - Mar 30, 2026
Ryan Dunn - Mar 28, 2026
Dillon Brooks - Apr 5, 2026
Mark Williams - Mar 30, 2026
POR
SAC
Nique Clifford - Mar 28, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Apr 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Apr 1, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
TOR
UTA
Keyonte George - Mar 28, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Mar 28, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
WAS
Trae Young - Mar 29, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Apr 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026