Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, November 19, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.9	17.8	26.3	19.3	16.0	79.5
DET	East	97.2	6.5	13.2	14.5	15.1	49.3
NYK	East	94.5	8.0	15.1	16.2	15.2	54.5
BOS	East	93.1	11.8	18.9	18.6	15.2	64.5
ATL	East	87.6	4.7	9.7	12.3	12.4	39.1
ORL	East	85.7	5.0	9.9	12.5	12.1	39.6
MIA	East	75.2	3.3	6.6	9.5	9.6	29.1
PHI	East	67.3	2.3	4.5	7.3	7.4	21.5
TOR	East	55.8	1.3	3.1	5.1	5.3	14.8
CHI	East	23.4	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.6	4.5
MIL	East	20.1	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.3	3.6
CHA	East	0.1
IND	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.0	34.2	15.9	8.4	95.6
HOU	West	99.9	17.0	25.9	19.7	16.3	78.9
DEN	West	99.6	10.6	19.3	18.0	17.3	65.2
GSW	West	97.8	8.3	14.9	16.8	15.6	55.6
LAL	West	96.8	3.8	8.7	11.8	12.6	36.9
MIN	West	87.6	3.2	6.4	10.0	9.4	29.0
SAS	West	82.6	2.2	4.5	7.5	7.6	21.9
LAC	West	52.9	0.9	1.8	3.5	3.4	9.6
PHX	West	32.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.0	2.5
MEM	West	30.8	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.4	3.6
POR	West	15.7	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.1
DAL	West	3.8	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
SAC	West	0.3			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, November 19, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	55.6			64.3	19.2
DET	East	51.3			14.4	25.9
NYK	East	49.7			8.6	17.6
BOS	East	48.7			5.0	12.4
ATL	East	47.7			3.1	8.9
ORL	East	47.2			2.5	7.6
MIA	East	45.6			1.1	3.9
PHI	East	44.6			0.6	2.7
TOR	East	43.5			0.3	1.5
CHI	East	39.6			<0.1	0.1
MIL	East	39.2			<0.1	0.1
CHA	East	28.5
IND	East	24.6
BKN	East	21.5
WAS	East	16.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	66.9			97.3	2.5
HOU	West	56.9			2.2	66.5
DEN	West	52.8			0.4	19.8
GSW	West	49.6			<0.1	5.7
LAL	West	49.1			<0.1	4.2
MIN	West	45.8			<0.1	0.7
SAS	West	44.9				0.5
LAC	West	40.5				<0.1
PHX	West	38.5				<0.1
MEM	West	37.8				<0.1
POR	West	35.8
DAL	West	32.0
SAC	West	27.3
UTA	West	24.5
NOP	West	24.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.