Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, January 9, 10:15 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	12.8	21.6	18.8	17.5	70.7
BOS	East	99.9	19.5	27.6	19.7	15.5	82.2
NYK	East	99.5	9.7	18.4	17.3	17.1	62.4
CLE	East	97.2	11.5	18.5	18.4	15.5	63.9
ORL	East	87.4	3.6	7.4	11.0	10.6	32.5
PHI	East	85.8	2.6	5.6	8.7	8.8	25.7
TOR	East	85.1	2.0	4.5	7.7	7.9	22.1
MIA	East	86.6	3.3	6.5	10.2	10.0	30.0
ATL	East	36.9	0.7	1.6	2.7	3.0	7.9
MIL	East	14.2	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	1.9
CHI	East	6.1	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6
CHA	East	0.9	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.7	33.5	17.2	9.7	94.1
HOU	West	99.8	14.9	23.8	19.5	16.6	74.8
SAS	West	98.7	8.2	15.4	16.0	16.2	55.7
DEN	West	97.3	7.4	14.3	15.8	15.3	52.8
MIN	West	95.1	5.3	10.6	13.2	13.5	42.6
GSW	West	90.5	5.9	10.5	14.0	12.1	42.5
LAL	West	76.6	1.2	2.7	4.9	5.2	13.9
PHX	West	77.6	1.5	3.1	5.5	6.1	16.2
MEM	West	30.6	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.6	4.4
POR	West	15.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
LAC	West	17.2	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	1.8
DAL	West	1.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, January 9, 10:15 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	55.0			62.0	24.3
BOS	East	52.7			24.1	38.7
NYK	East	50.9			11.2	24.5
CLE	East	48.0			1.8	6.6
ORL	East	45.2			0.2	1.5
PHI	East	45.0			0.3	1.9
TOR	East	44.7			0.2	1.1
MIA	East	44.5			0.2	1.4
ATL	East	39.4			<0.1	<0.1
MIL	East	36.3
CHI	East	34.0
CHA	East	30.7
BKN	East	29.5
IND	East	22.8
WAS	East	22.6
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.3			98.8	1.2
HOU	West	54.1			0.9	55.9
SAS	West	51.5			0.2	23.1
DEN	West	49.9			0.1	9.6
MIN	West	49.2			<0.1	6.9
GSW	West	47.1				2.1
LAL	West	45.4			<0.1	0.7
PHX	West	45.3			<0.1	0.6
MEM	West	39.8				<0.1
POR	West	38.4				<0.1
LAC	West	38.0
DAL	West	32.9
UTA	West	28.0
NOP	West	22.7
SAC	West	21.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.