NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, April 7, 9:59 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 13.5 | 23.4 | 18.9 | 18.0 | 73.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 21.3 | 29.8 | 19.7 | 14.8 | 85.7 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.1 | 23.4 | 18.7 | 18.2 | 73.4 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 11.1 | 21.5 | 18.1 | 18.5 | 69.1 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 97.7 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 27.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 82.1 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 78.4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 57.1 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 54.7 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 16.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 29.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 32.1 | 34.4 | 17.6 | 10.1 | 94.3 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 19.6 | 29.1 | 19.6 | 15.9 | 84.1 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 13.1 | 22.6 | 18.4 | 17.6 | 71.7 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 100 | 22.0 | 24.8 | 19.0 | 11.6 | 77.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 99.7 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 40.7 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 81.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 53.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 46.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 19.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, April 7, 9:59 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 59.1 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 55.8 | 96.8 | ||||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.8 | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 52.1 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 46.3 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.3 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.9 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 44.6 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 44.2 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 43.3 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 32.6 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 30.7 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.2 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 19.5 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 18.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.9 | 97.5 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 62.2 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 52.7 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 51.5 | |||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 51.3 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.3 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.3 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.1 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 41.6 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 38.7 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.2 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 26.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 25.6 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 22.3 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Jock Landale - Apr 17, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
BKN
Terance Mann - Apr 9, 2026
Ziaire Williams - Apr 9, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Nic Claxton - Apr 9, 2026
Noah Clowney - Apr 9, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Danny Wolf - Oct 1, 2026
CHA
Coby White - Apr 10, 2026
PJ Hall - Apr 10, 2026
CHI
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Nick Richards - Apr 9, 2026
Josh Giddey - Apr 9, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Jalen Smith - Oct 1, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Apr 9, 2026
Matas Buzelis - Apr 9, 2026
CLE
Max Strus - Apr 8, 2026
James Harden - Apr 8, 2026
Jaylon Tyson - Apr 8, 2026
Thomas Bryant - Apr 10, 2026
Donovan Mitchell - Apr 8, 2026
Dean Wade - Apr 8, 2026
DAL
DEN
DET
Duncan Robinson - Apr 8, 2026
Isaiah Stewart - Apr 8, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
Caris LeVert - Apr 8, 2026
Tobias Harris - Apr 8, 2026
GSW
Al Horford - Apr 12, 2026
Moses Moody - Dec 1, 2026
LJ Cryer - Apr 9, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Gui Santos - Apr 9, 2026
Quinten Post - Apr 12, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
IND
T.J. McConnell - Apr 9, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Apr 9, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Apr 9, 2026
Ivica Zubac - Oct 1, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
Aaron Nesmith - Apr 9, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Ben Sheppard - Apr 9, 2026
LAC
LAL
MEM
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2026
Taj Gibson - Apr 8, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Apr 8, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Javon Small - Apr 10, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Oct 1, 2026
Taylor Hendricks - Apr 8, 2026
Ty Jerome - Apr 8, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2026
MIA
Terry Rozier - Apr 15, 2026
MIL
Ryan Rollins - Apr 8, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Gary Trent Jr. - Apr 8, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Apr 8, 2026
Kyle Kuzma - Apr 8, 2026
Bobby Portis - Apr 8, 2026
Myles Turner - Apr 8, 2026
MIN
Jaden McDaniels - Apr 8, 2026
Anthony Edwards - Apr 8, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Apr 10, 2026
Karlo Matkovic - Apr 10, 2026
Dejounte Murray - Apr 10, 2026
Trey Murphy III - Apr 10, 2026
OKC
Jalen Williams - Apr 8, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
ORL
PHI
Cameron Payne - Apr 20, 2026
Johni Broome - Apr 9, 2026
PHX
Haywood Highsmith - Apr 8, 2026
POR
Vit Krejci - Apr 8, 2026
Jerami Grant - Apr 10, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 8, 2026
SAC
Russell Westbrook - Apr 10, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Apr 10, 2026
Keegan Murray - Apr 10, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
Emanuel Miller - Apr 8, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Apr 9, 2026
UTA
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Apr 10, 2026
Elijah Harkless - Apr 10, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Keyonte George - Apr 10, 2026
WAS
Trae Young - Oct 1, 2026
Tristan Vukcevic - Apr 9, 2026
Anthony Davis - Oct 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Oct 1, 2026
Tre Johnson - Apr 9, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 15, 2026
Alex Sarr - Apr 9, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026