NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 50,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, October 20, 10:19 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 23.6 | 30.0 | 19.3 | 14.0 | 86.9 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 99.1 | 11.5 | 20.2 | 18.4 | 17.1 | 67.2 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 98.7 | 10.9 | 19.2 | 17.9 | 17.3 | 65.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 88.7 | 9.5 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 13.6 | 55.5 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 85.5 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 36.2 | |||||||||||||||
DET  | East | 74.1 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 25.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 61.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 17.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 59.9 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 16.4 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 44.0 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||
IND  | East | 37.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 33.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | 13.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 3.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 25.4 | 31.3 | 19.0 | 13.2 | 88.9 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.1 | 13.4 | 22.2 | 19.2 | 16.9 | 71.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 97.6 | 7.7 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 54.6 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 96.4 | 7.6 | 14.6 | 16.2 | 15.5 | 53.8 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 93.9 | 5.5 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 43.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 80.1 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 27.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 75.1 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 23.8 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 62.7 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 17.2 | |||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | 52.2 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 31.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | 5.9 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 3.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | 1.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 0.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, October 20, 10:19 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 55.4 | 77.7 | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 48.8 | 10.8 | 35.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 48.3 | 9.3 | 31.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 43.1 | 0.8 | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 42.8 | 0.8 | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 40.9 | 0.3 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 39.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 39.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 37.4 | <0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 36.5 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 36.0 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 33.0 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 29.6 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 25.7 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 61.2 | 90.5 | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.0 | 4.3 | 34.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 50.6 | 2.4 | 23.5 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 49.7 | 1.7 | 17.6 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 48.5 | 0.9 | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 45.0 | 0.1 | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 44.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 42.6 | <0.1 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 41.3 | <0.1 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 38.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 33.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 32.1 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 30.8 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 29.2 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 20.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jalen Johnson - Oct 22, 2025
BKN
Haywood Highsmith - Dec 18, 2025
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
Jaylen Brown - Oct 22, 2025
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 22, 2025
CHI
Ayo Dosunmu - Oct 22, 2025
Zach Collins - Nov 16, 2025
CLE
Darius Garland - Nov 1, 2025
Max Strus - Dec 1, 2025
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
DET
Jaden Ivey - Nov 24, 2025
GSW
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 30, 2025
Moses Moody - Oct 23, 2025
HOU
Dorian Finney-Smith - Oct 21, 2025
Jae'Sean Tate - Oct 21, 2025
Kevin Durant - Oct 21, 2025
Fred VanVleet - Apr 12, 2026
Clint Capela - Oct 21, 2025
IND
Kam Jones - Nov 11, 2025
Quenton Jackson - Oct 29, 2025
T.J. McConnell - Nov 11, 2025
Jarace Walker - Oct 23, 2025
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Adou Thiero - Oct 31, 2025
LeBron James - Nov 14, 2025
MEM
Ja Morant - Oct 22, 2025
Zach Edey - Nov 7, 2025
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Jan 15, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Nov 15, 2025
MIA
Tyler Herro - Nov 17, 2025
MIN
Joe Ingles - Oct 22, 2025
NOP
OKC
Jalen Williams - Oct 21, 2025
Nikola Topic - Nov 11, 2025
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Kenrich Williams - Nov 11, 2025
ORL
Jalen Suggs - Oct 22, 2025
Moritz Wagner - Oct 22, 2025
PHI
PHX
POR
Deni Avdija - Oct 22, 2025
Robert Williams III - Oct 22, 2025
Damian Lillard - Apr 1, 2026
Scoot Henderson - Nov 10, 2025
SAC
Russell Westbrook - Oct 22, 2025
Keegan Murray - Nov 30, 2025
Malik Monk - Oct 22, 2025
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 26, 2025
SAS
Jeremy Sochan - Nov 2, 2025
De'Aaron Fox - Nov 2, 2025
Lindy Waters III - Oct 24, 2025
Kelly Olynyk - Oct 22, 2025
TOR
Jakob Poeltl - Oct 22, 2025
UTA
WAS
Bilal Coulibaly - Nov 1, 2025