NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Sunday, November 23, 10:18 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE | East | 99.8 | 16.3 | 25.1 | 19.1 | 16.3 | 76.8 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 97.0 | 6.1 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 15.1 | 47.7 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 93.4 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 48.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 91.4 | 5.8 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 44.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 91.5 | 6.3 | 12.4 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 47.6 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 85.9 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 36.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 85.8 | 8.8 | 14.6 | 16.5 | 13.6 | 53.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 70.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 61.1 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 13.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 10.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
IND | East | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 100 | 36.5 | 34.4 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 95.3 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 99.9 | 17.2 | 26.5 | 19.4 | 16.6 | 79.7 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 98.9 | 8.8 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 16.3 | 59.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 96.0 | 4.5 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 39.9 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 94.3 | 6.8 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 14.2 | 49.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 84.8 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 26.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 84.9 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 30.1 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 43.9 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 39.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 34.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 20.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 2.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Sunday, November 23, 10:18 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 55.1 | 59.7 | 19.9 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 51.2 | 15.0 | 23.6 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 49.3 | 7.1 | 14.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 48.7 | 5.8 | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 48.7 | 5.9 | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 47.4 | 2.8 | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 46.8 | 2.2 | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.2 | 1.2 | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 43.9 | 0.4 | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 37.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 36.8 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 26.9 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 26.3 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 23.9 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 67.5 | 98.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 57.4 | 1.9 | 77.4 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 51.3 | 0.1 | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 49.2 | <0.1 | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 47.8 | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 45.9 | <0.1 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 45.8 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 40.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 39.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 39.7 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 37.5 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 32.2 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 26.1 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.4 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 22.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Trae Young - Nov 30, 2025
N'Faly Dante - Dec 18, 2025
BKN
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
CHA
Josh Green - Dec 1, 2025
Grant Williams - Dec 1, 2025
CHI
Trentyn Flowers - Nov 28, 2025
Dalen Terry - Nov 28, 2025
Zach Collins - Dec 1, 2025
Isaac Okoro - Nov 28, 2025
Patrick Williams - Nov 24, 2025
CLE
Craig Porter Jr. - Nov 24, 2025
Jarrett Allen - Nov 24, 2025
Lonzo Ball - Nov 24, 2025
Max Strus - Dec 1, 2025
Sam Merrill - Nov 24, 2025
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
Anthony Davis - Nov 24, 2025
D'Angelo Russell - Nov 24, 2025
Dereck Lively II - Nov 28, 2025
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
DET
Bobi Klintman - Nov 26, 2025
Marcus Sasser - Dec 18, 2025
GSW
HOU
IND
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Obi Toppin - Feb 2, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Dec 18, 2025
Quenton Jackson - Nov 26, 2025
Johnny Furphy - Nov 26, 2025
Kam Jones - Dec 3, 2025
LAC
Bogdan Bogdanovic - Nov 25, 2025
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
Derrick Jones Jr. - Dec 30, 2025
Jordan Miller - Nov 25, 2025
MEM
Javon Small - Dec 7, 2025
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Jan 15, 2026
Ty Jerome - Jan 15, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Dec 30, 2025
Ja Morant - Dec 2, 2025
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Nov 24, 2025
MIA
Andrew Wiggins - Nov 24, 2025
Nikola Jovic - Nov 24, 2025
Terry Rozier - Dec 18, 2025
Tyler Herro - Nov 24, 2025
MIL
MIN
Terrence Shannon Jr. - Nov 24, 2025
NOP
Herbert Jones - Nov 26, 2025
Karlo Matkovic - Nov 26, 2025
Zion Williamson - Nov 24, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Jan 2, 2026
Jordan Poole - Nov 26, 2025
NYK
OG Anunoby - Dec 2, 2025
OKC
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Kenrich Williams - Nov 30, 2025
Jalen Williams - Nov 26, 2025
Nikola Topic - Feb 20, 2026
Aaron Wiggins - Nov 30, 2025
ORL
Paolo Banchero - Nov 25, 2025
Moritz Wagner - Nov 25, 2025
PHI
PHX
POR
Jrue Holiday - Dec 5, 2025
Blake Wesley - Jan 30, 2026
Scoot Henderson - Dec 20, 2025
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Matisse Thybulle - Dec 2, 2025
Shaedon Sharpe - Nov 24, 2025
SAC
Domantas Sabonis - Dec 18, 2025
SAS
Jordan McLaughlin - Nov 26, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Dec 2, 2025
Stephon Castle - Nov 30, 2025
Dylan Harper - Nov 30, 2025
TOR
Jakob Poeltl - Nov 24, 2025
UTA
Georges Niang - Dec 7, 2025
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
AJ Johnson - Nov 25, 2025
Tre Johnson - Nov 25, 2025
Marvin Bagley III - Nov 25, 2025
Khris Middleton - Nov 25, 2025