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NBA Season Probabilities

Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.

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NBA Cup Probabilities

Updated Thursday, October 22, 5:17 AM
EastKnockoutSemisFinalChampion
BOS BOS logo 70.6
DET DET logo 54.4
NYK NYK logo 35.5
TOR TOR logo 42.5
CLE CLE logo 22.0
PHI PHI logo 22.8
MIA MIA logo 21.3
IND IND logo 21.5
ORL ORL logo 36.0
CHA CHA logo 27.2
ATL ATL logo 25.4
WAS WAS logo 7.4
CHI CHI logo 4.5
MIL MIL logo 5.3
BKN BKN logo 3.7
WestKnockoutSemisFinalChampion
OKC OKC logo 77.6
SAS SAS logo 71.1
HOU HOU logo 46.5
DEN DEN logo 43.4
LAL LAL logo 24.2
MIN MIN logo 23.0
POR POR logo 25.7
GSW GSW logo 12.9
MEM MEM logo 16.2
DAL DAL logo 17.0
PHX PHX logo 14.8
LAC LAC logo 7.2
UTA UTA logo 9.6
NOP NOP logo 7.8
SAC SAC logo 3.2
· The NBA Cup knockout round is an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wildcard from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, October 22, 5:17 AM
Win TotalsStandings Finish
ConfAvgLowHighPlay-In123456789101112131415
BOS BOS logo East 56.610.234.019.43.82.92.01.5
DET DET logo East 52.019.517.416.06.45.54.33.3
NYK NYK logo East 48.927.211.111.68.37.36.35.3
TOR TOR logo East 47.830.19.110.58.88.07.26.1
CLE CLE logo East 45.434.05.88.09.39.08.47.3
PHI PHI logo East 44.536.74.86.79.69.88.98.4
MIA MIA logo East 44.137.04.16.79.69.59.48.5
IND IND logo East 43.937.34.56.29.99.69.38.6
ORL ORL logo East 43.337.53.95.99.59.69.68.8
CHA CHA logo East 41.339.12.64.39.29.610.210.1
ATL ATL logo East 41.239.02.64.19.49.79.810.2
WAS WAS logo East 28.019.00.10.32.43.65.27.7
CHI CHI logo East 26.014.80.10.11.72.74.16.3
MIL MIL logo East 24.411.7<0.10.11.32.13.35.0
BKN BKN logo East 21.66.9<0.1<0.10.71.11.93.2
Win TotalsStandings Finish
ConfAvgLowHighPlay-In123456789101112131415
OKC OKC logo West 63.62.052.824.11.00.50.30.2
SAS SAS logo West 59.55.227.331.12.41.40.90.6
HOU HOU logo West 50.920.37.313.67.55.54.23.2
DEN DEN logo West 48.725.15.29.88.66.65.54.4
LAL LAL logo West 43.835.01.94.710.19.68.37.0
MIN MIN logo West 43.635.81.84.510.19.68.57.6
POR POR logo West 43.336.21.64.610.59.88.57.5
GSW GSW logo West 40.538.20.82.89.79.99.68.9
MEM MEM logo West 37.737.90.51.58.79.59.810.0
DAL DAL logo West 36.537.10.31.28.38.99.710.1
PHX PHX logo West 36.136.00.31.17.98.99.39.8
LAC LAC logo West 32.530.10.10.55.36.88.39.7
UTA UTA logo West 30.726.0<0.10.34.35.67.38.8
NOP NOP logo West 30.324.70.10.34.35.37.08.2
SAC SAC logo West 23.210.3<0.1<0.11.32.12.84.1
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, October 22, 5:17 AM
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
BOS BOS logo East 94.923.224.315.011.573.9
DET DET logo East 86.910.815.612.011.449.7
NYK NYK logo East 80.812.315.312.09.849.4
TOR TOR logo East 76.18.312.010.69.440.4
CLE CLE logo East 68.45.28.48.37.829.6
PHI PHI logo East 66.26.28.78.77.631.2
MIA MIA logo East 64.34.87.87.77.327.6
IND IND logo East 63.85.07.87.87.227.9
ORL ORL logo East 62.24.47.27.36.825.7
CHA CHA logo East 55.13.76.06.45.822.0
ATL ATL logo East 53.62.74.95.25.518.3
WAS WAS logo East 11.00.20.40.70.61.9
CHI CHI logo East 7.60.10.30.40.41.2
MIL MIL logo East 6.10.10.20.30.30.9
BKN BKN logo East 3.1<0.10.10.10.10.4
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC OKC logo West 99.235.129.113.69.487.3
SAS SAS logo West 97.628.226.814.710.580.3
HOU HOU logo West 87.013.216.612.610.352.8
DEN DEN logo West 81.211.214.411.89.847.3
LAL LAL logo West 65.84.36.87.26.725.0
MIN MIN logo West 64.73.25.86.26.321.5
POR POR logo West 65.04.77.27.46.625.9
GSW GSW logo West 55.03.45.35.75.119.5
MEM MEM logo West 42.51.52.83.43.311.0
DAL DAL logo West 38.21.12.02.82.78.6
PHX PHX logo West 37.61.22.42.93.09.6
LAC LAC logo West 24.00.51.01.31.44.1
UTA UTA logo West 19.30.40.81.11.23.5
NOP NOP logo West 17.70.30.71.01.03.0
SAC SAC logo West 5.20.10.10.20.20.5
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.

Injured players and estimated return date

ATL
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Nov 20, 2026
BKN
Tyler Bilodeau · Oct 24, 2026
BOS
Devin Carter · Nov 8, 2026
CHA
Kon Knueppel · Oct 23, 2026
Grant Williams · Oct 23, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Nov 2, 2026
Coby White · Oct 23, 2026
CHI
Jordan Hawkins · Oct 24, 2026
Nic Claxton · Nov 4, 2026
Dailyn Swain · Oct 24, 2026
CLE
Khalifa Diop · Oct 24, 2026
Nae'Qwan Tomlin · Nov 16, 2026
DAL
Dereck Lively II · Oct 23, 2026
Jett Howard · Oct 23, 2026
Tarik Biberovic · Oct 23, 2026
Santi Aldama · Oct 23, 2026
Caleb Martin · Oct 23, 2026
DEN
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
DET
Taurean Prince · Oct 23, 2026
GSW
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
Brandin Podziemski · Oct 23, 2026
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Charles Bassey · Oct 23, 2026
Kristaps Porziņģis · Dec 1, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams · Oct 23, 2026
IND
Johnny Furphy · Jan 2, 2027
Aaron Nesmith · Oct 23, 2026
T.J. McConnell · Oct 23, 2026
LAC
Bradley Beal · Nov 8, 2026
Max Strus · Nov 8, 2026
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Brandon Ingram · Nov 8, 2026
LAL
Cameron Carr · Oct 23, 2026
Adou Thiero · Oct 23, 2026
Collin Sexton · Oct 23, 2026
MEM
Isaiah Stewart · Oct 23, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
OKC
Thomas Sorber · Oct 26, 2026
Nikola Topic · Oct 26, 2026
Otega Oweh · Jul 1, 2027
ORL
Noah Penda · Nov 18, 2026
Jonathan Isaac · Oct 23, 2026
Anthony Black · Oct 23, 2026
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
PHI
Ariel Hukporti · Oct 1, 2027
Tacko Fall · Oct 24, 2026
Dean Wade · Oct 22, 2026
Dominick Barlow · Nov 2, 2026
PHX
Luke Kennard · Oct 24, 2026
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
POR
Chris Youngblood · Oct 23, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe · Mar 2, 2027
Branden Carlson · Oct 23, 2026
SAC
Maxime Raynaud · Nov 2, 2026
Malik Monk · Oct 23, 2026
Dylan Cardwell · Nov 2, 2026
Ben Simmons · Oct 1, 2027
SAS
Jayden Quaintance · Dec 3, 2026
Tobias Harris · Oct 23, 2026
TOR
Nate Bittle · Oct 28, 2026
UTA
Tony Bradley · Oct 23, 2026
Blake Hinson · Oct 23, 2026
Jusuf Nurkić · Nov 4, 2026
Trey Alexander · Oct 23, 2026
WAS
Tristan Vukcevic · Nov 2, 2026
AJ Dybantsa · Oct 23, 2026
Jamir Watkins · Apr 2, 2027

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.