Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, September 14, 5:46 PM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.9	22.3	29.2	19.7	14.3	85.5
NYK	East	99.5	13.3	22.3	18.6	16.9	71.2
ORL	East	99.3	12.9	21.5	19.0	17.0	70.4
ATL	East	87.6	5.1	9.4	11.8	12.0	38.3
BOS	East	86.8	8.4	13.9	15.4	13.3	50.9
DET	East	72.8	2.6	5.2	7.9	8.3	24.0
PHI	East	62.0	1.6	3.6	5.9	6.0	17.1
MIL	East	57.6	1.4	3.0	4.9	5.3	14.6
IND	East	40.0	0.8	1.8	3.3	3.3	9.2
TOR	East	39.6	0.7	1.7	2.9	3.1	8.3
MIA	East	36.9	0.7	1.6	2.7	3.0	8.0
CHI	East	15.8	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.0	2.4
CHA	East	1.8	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.2			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East	<0.1
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	99.9	24.5	30.7	19.4	13.8	88.3
HOU	West	99.9	14.7	23.8	19.6	17.0	75.2
LAC	West	97.6	8.3	15.6	16.5	16.5	56.9
DEN	West	94.8	6.4	12.7	14.4	14.7	48.3
GSW	West	90.2	4.7	9.6	12.5	12.6	39.4
LAL	West	81.3	3.2	6.5	9.7	9.9	29.4
MIN	West	77.3	2.7	5.5	8.8	8.4	25.5
MEM	West	66.0	1.9	4.0	6.3	6.5	18.6
DAL	West	48.1	1.2	2.5	4.2	4.3	12.2
SAS	West	31.0	0.4	1.0	1.8	1.9	5.1
SAC	West	6.6	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
POR	West	4.9	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
NOP	West	1.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
PHX	West	0.9		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, September 14, 5:46 PM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	54.6			65.7	22.3
NYK	East	50.1			17.9	35.0
ORL	East	49.5			14.1	30.6
ATL	East	43.2			1.0	4.7
BOS	East	42.8			0.7	3.9
DET	East	40.8			0.3	1.6
PHI	East	39.4			0.1	0.8
MIL	East	38.9			0.1	0.6
IND	East	36.8			<0.1	0.2
TOR	East	36.8			<0.1	0.2
MIA	East	36.5			<0.1	0.2
CHI	East	33.5				<0.1
CHA	East	28.6
BKN	East	25.4
WAS	East	23.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	60.3			79.0	16.6
HOU	West	55.2			16.7	52.6
LAC	West	50.3			2.4	14.7
DEN	West	48.6			1.1	7.8
GSW	West	46.9			0.5	4.5
LAL	West	45.0			0.2	1.8
MIN	West	44.3			0.1	1.3
MEM	West	42.8			<0.1	0.5
DAL	West	40.5			<0.1	0.2
SAS	West	38.6				<0.1
SAC	West	34.1				<0.1
POR	West	32.8
NOP	West	30.4
PHX	West	29.7
UTA	West	20.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.