Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, January 7, 10:16 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	11.8	20.3	18.2	17.6	67.9
BOS	East	99.9	20.5	28.5	19.8	14.9	83.6
NYK	East	99.1	9.4	17.1	17.1	16.7	60.2
CLE	East	97.6	11.9	19.3	19.1	15.8	66.2
PHI	East	85.2	2.6	5.4	8.7	9.4	26.0
MIA	East	86.4	3.5	6.9	10.3	10.2	30.9
ORL	East	84.5	3.5	7.0	10.2	10.1	30.7
TOR	East	81.7	2.0	4.5	7.3	7.7	21.4
ATL	East	42.0	0.9	2.0	3.7	3.6	10.1
MIL	East	14.7	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.9
CHI	East	6.8	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7
CHA	East	1.6	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
BKN	East	0.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
IND	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	32.9	33.4	17.4	10.0	93.8
HOU	West	99.9	15.1	24.4	19.3	17.0	75.7
SAS	West	98.7	8.2	15.3	15.9	16.3	55.7
DEN	West	95.5	6.9	13.1	15.0	14.0	49.0
MIN	West	93.6	5.3	10.6	12.9	12.9	41.7
GSW	West	90.3	5.9	10.9	14.0	12.7	43.5
LAL	West	79.7	1.3	3.2	5.6	6.3	16.4
PHX	West	71.1	1.2	2.7	5.1	5.0	14.1
MEM	West	39.1	0.6	1.3	2.6	2.6	7.1
LAC	West	18.5	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	2.1
POR	West	11.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
DAL	West	2.5	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, January 7, 10:16 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	54.5			52.2	29.5
BOS	East	53.6			35.9	37.8
NYK	East	50.3			8.5	19.1
CLE	East	48.4			2.3	8.2
PHI	East	45.2			0.4	1.9
MIA	East	45.1			0.3	1.5
ORL	East	44.7			0.2	1.1
TOR	East	44.3			0.2	0.9
ATL	East	40.1			<0.1	<0.1
MIL	East	36.8
CHI	East	35.0
CHA	East	32.2
BKN	East	29.8
WAS	East	22.6
IND	East	21.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.2			98.4	1.5
HOU	West	54.7			1.3	65.5
SAS	West	51.2			0.2	20.2
DEN	West	48.6			<0.1	5.1
MIN	West	48.5			<0.1	4.8
GSW	West	46.7				1.7
LAL	West	45.7			<0.1	0.9
PHX	West	44.4				0.3
MEM	West	40.6				<0.1
LAC	West	38.3				<0.1
POR	West	37.4
DAL	West	33.9
UTA	West	26.4
NOP	West	23.6
SAC	West	21.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.