Playoff Probabilities

NBA Playoff Probabilities

Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.

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Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, June 14, 3:19 PM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100				100	100
BOS	East	100
NYK	East	100			100		100
CLE	East	100				100	100
TOR	East	100
ATL	East	100
PHI	East	100				100	100
ORL	East	100
CHA	East
MIA	East
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	100				100
SAS	West	100		100			100
DEN	West	100
LAL	West	100			100		100
HOU	West	100
MIN	West	100			100		100
PHX	West	100
POR	West	100
LAC	West
GSW	West
DAL	West
NOP	West
MEM	West
SAC	West
UTA	West

· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (shown top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, June 14, 3:19 PM

		Win Totals			Seed
	Conf	Avg	Low	High	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
DET	East	60.0			100
BOS	East	56.0				100
NYK	East	53.0
CLE	East	52.0
TOR	East	46.0
ATL	East	46.0
PHI	East	45.0
ORL	East	45.0
CHA	East	44.0
MIA	East	43.0
MIL	East	32.0
CHI	East	31.0
BKN	East	20.0
IND	East	19.0
WAS	East	17.0
		Win Totals			Seed
	Conf	Avg	Low	High	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
OKC	West	64.0			100
SAS	West	62.0				100
DEN	West	54.0
LAL	West	53.0
HOU	West	52.0
MIN	West	49.0
PHX	West	45.0
POR	West	42.0
LAC	West	42.0
GSW	West	37.0
DAL	West	26.0
NOP	West	26.0
MEM	West	25.0
SAC	West	22.0
UTA	West	22.0

· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (shown top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.