NBA Season Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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NBA Cup Probabilities
Updated Thursday, October 22, 5:17 AM
· The NBA Cup knockout round is an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wildcard from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, October 22, 5:17 AM
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, October 22, 5:17 AM
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Injured players and estimated return date
ATL
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Nov 20, 2026
BKN
Tyler Bilodeau · Oct 24, 2026
BOS
Devin Carter · Nov 8, 2026
CHA
Kon Knueppel · Oct 23, 2026
Grant Williams · Oct 23, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Nov 2, 2026
Coby White · Oct 23, 2026
CHI
CLE
Khalifa Diop · Oct 24, 2026
Nae'Qwan Tomlin · Nov 16, 2026
DAL
Dereck Lively II · Oct 23, 2026
Jett Howard · Oct 23, 2026
Tarik Biberovic · Oct 23, 2026
Santi Aldama · Oct 23, 2026
Caleb Martin · Oct 23, 2026
DEN
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
DET
Taurean Prince · Oct 23, 2026
GSW
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
Brandin Podziemski · Oct 23, 2026
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Charles Bassey · Oct 23, 2026
Kristaps Porziņģis · Dec 1, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams · Oct 23, 2026
IND
LAC
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 8, 2026
Bradley Beal · Nov 8, 2026
Max Strus · Nov 8, 2026
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Brandon Ingram · Nov 8, 2026
LAL
MEM
Isaiah Stewart · Oct 23, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
OKC
ORL
Noah Penda · Nov 18, 2026
Jonathan Isaac · Oct 23, 2026
Anthony Black · Oct 23, 2026
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
PHI
Ariel Hukporti · Oct 1, 2027
Tacko Fall · Oct 24, 2026
Dean Wade · Oct 22, 2026
Dominick Barlow · Nov 2, 2026
PHX
Luke Kennard · Oct 24, 2026
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
POR
SAC
Maxime Raynaud · Nov 2, 2026
Malik Monk · Oct 23, 2026
Dylan Cardwell · Nov 2, 2026
Ben Simmons · Oct 1, 2027
SAS
Jayden Quaintance · Dec 3, 2026
Tobias Harris · Oct 23, 2026
TOR
Nate Bittle · Oct 28, 2026
UTA
Tony Bradley · Oct 23, 2026
Blake Hinson · Oct 23, 2026
Jusuf Nurkić · Nov 4, 2026
Trey Alexander · Oct 23, 2026
WAS
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.