NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, March 31, 10:00 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 14.1 | 23.9 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 75.0 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 20.9 | 29.5 | 19.7 | 15.3 | 85.3 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.4 | 23.7 | 19.1 | 18.0 | 74.3 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 15.2 | 25.4 | 19.4 | 17.4 | 77.4 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 93.4 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 92.0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 19.9 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 80.6 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 54.0 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 40.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 39.7 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 36.8 | 34.5 | 15.9 | 8.4 | 95.7 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 18.0 | 27.6 | 19.8 | 16.7 | 82.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 7.0 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 17.8 | 55.4 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 10.2 | 19.5 | 17.9 | 18.2 | 65.9 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.9 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 38.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 99.6 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 39.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 81.6 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 70.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 24.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 23.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, March 31, 10:00 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.6 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 55.0 | 0.5 | 84.4 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.6 | <0.1 | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.9 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.3 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 45.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 43.6 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 43.1 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 43.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 31.9 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 31.7 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.1 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 19.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.5 | 94.0 | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 61.6 | 6.0 | 94.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.7 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 51.8 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.5 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.5 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 43.0 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.7 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 39.7 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 27.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 26.9 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.5 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 22.2 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 20.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jock Landale - Apr 1, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
BKN
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Terance Mann - Apr 3, 2026
Danny Wolf - Apr 9, 2026
BOS
Neemias Queta - Apr 1, 2026
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
Ron Harper Jr. - Apr 1, 2026
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Apr 1, 2026
CHI
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2026
Nick Richards - Apr 1, 2026
Mac McClung - Apr 1, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Apr 3, 2026
Jalen Smith - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
Dean Wade - Apr 5, 2026
Jaylon Tyson - Apr 5, 2026
DAL
Marvin Bagley III - Apr 3, 2026
P.J. Washington - Apr 3, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Naji Marshall - Apr 3, 2026
Caleb Martin - Apr 3, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
Aaron Gordon - Apr 1, 2026
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Apr 2, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
GSW
Al Horford - Apr 5, 2026
Stephen Curry - Apr 2, 2026
Quinten Post - Apr 1, 2026
Will Richard - Apr 1, 2026
Moses Moody - Dec 1, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
IND
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
Ivica Zubac - Oct 1, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Apr 3, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Jarace Walker - Apr 3, 2026
LAC
LAL
Marcus Smart - Apr 2, 2026
MEM
Jaylen Wells - Oct 1, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Taj Gibson - Apr 1, 2026
Javon Small - Apr 1, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Ty Jerome - Apr 3, 2026
Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Apr 1, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2026
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2026
MIA
Norman Powell - Apr 4, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 15, 2026
MIL
Gary Harris - Apr 1, 2026
Bobby Portis - Apr 1, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Thanasis Antetokounmpo - Apr 1, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Apr 1, 2026
MIN
Jaden McDaniels - Apr 7, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Apr 2, 2026
Trey Murphy III - Apr 2, 2026
Josh Oduro - Apr 2, 2026
Hunter Dickinson - Apr 2, 2026
NYK
Landry Shamet - Apr 1, 2026
OKC
ORL
PHI
Johni Broome - Apr 3, 2026
PHX
POR
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Vit Krejci - Apr 2, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 2, 2026
Jerami Grant - Apr 2, 2026
SAC
Keegan Murray - Apr 3, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Apr 1, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Apr 3, 2026
DeMar DeRozan - Apr 1, 2026
Malik Monk - Apr 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
TOR
UTA
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Apr 1, 2026
Elijah Harkless - Apr 1, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Keyonte George - Apr 1, 2026
WAS
Kyshawn George - Apr 4, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 9, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Bilal Coulibaly - Apr 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 15, 2026
Trae Young - Apr 4, 2026
Alex Sarr - Apr 1, 2026