Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, April 10, 10:00 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	12.9	23.0	18.4	18.1	72.3
BOS	East	100	22.9	31.1	19.2	14.4	87.5
NYK	East	100	12.2	22.3	18.4	18.5	71.3
CLE	East	100	12.0	22.4	18.3	18.3	71.0
TOR	East	99.3	2.6	5.7	10.5	9.9	28.6
ATL	East	98.7	2.6	5.1	10.2	9.5	27.4
ORL	East	65.3	0.7	1.7	3.6	3.9	9.9
PHI	East	68.2	0.8	2.0	4.0	4.1	10.9
CHA	East	50.2	1.8	3.6	6.3	5.3	16.9
MIA	East	18.3	0.3	0.8	1.5	1.6	4.2
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.7	34.4	16.1	8.5	95.7
SAS	West	100	19.9	28.6	19.9	15.7	84.1
DEN	West	100	11.1	20.4	17.2	18.1	66.9
HOU	West	100	24.2	26.3	18.9	11.5	81.0
LAL	West	100	0.5	1.5	2.6	4.0	8.5
MIN	West	100	7.7	10.7	14.1	11.0	43.6
PHX	West	81.8	0.8	1.7	4.2	4.1	10.9
LAC	West	55.2	0.4	0.8	2.0	2.1	5.3
POR	West	49.5	0.3	0.6	1.4	1.5	3.8
GSW	West	13.4	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
NOP	West
DAL	West
MEM	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, April 10, 10:00 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	59.2			100
BOS	East	55.7				99.4
NYK	East	53.3				0.6
CLE	East	52.3
TOR	East	46.2
ATL	East	46.1
ORL	East	45.0
PHI	East	44.4
CHA	East	44.0
MIA	East	42.4
MIL	East	31.9
CHI	East	31.6
BKN	East	20.4
IND	East	19.6
WAS	East	17.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.0			100
SAS	West	62.5				100
DEN	West	53.2
HOU	West	52.5
LAL	West	52.1
MIN	West	48.1
PHX	West	44.8
LAC	West	42.1
POR	West	41.3
GSW	West	38.0
NOP	West	26.3
DAL	West	25.7
MEM	West	25.5
UTA	West	21.9
SAC	West	21.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.