NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Sunday, February 8, 10:13 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET | East | 100 | 16.0 | 25.2 | 20.1 | 16.9 | 78.1 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 99.9 | 20.6 | 29.3 | 19.8 | 15.4 | 85.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 99.9 | 17.8 | 26.3 | 19.9 | 16.4 | 80.5 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 99.4 | 10.3 | 18.6 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 63.2 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 91.7 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 22.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 86.7 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 22.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 77.8 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 19.5 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 75.5 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 37.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 29.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 1.7 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 0.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
IND | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 100 | 36.6 | 33.4 | 16.0 | 8.7 | 94.8 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 99.9 | 9.5 | 18.1 | 17.1 | 17.7 | 62.3 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 99.4 | 8.6 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 58.3 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 98.4 | 6.9 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 15.6 | 51.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 96.5 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 14.3 | 49.4 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 90.3 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 27.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 87.0 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 86.8 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 35.6 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 21.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 15.8 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 4.0 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Sunday, February 8, 10:13 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.3 | 83.5 | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 53.3 | 10.3 | 53.7 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 52.0 | 5.2 | 23.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 49.7 | 0.9 | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.2 | <0.1 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 45.3 | <0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 43.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 40.4 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 33.9 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 33.6 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 25.6 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 23.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 62.5 | 98.8 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 54.2 | 1.2 | 70.8 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 51.2 | <0.1 | 14.7 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.0 | <0.1 | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.0 | <0.1 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 46.5 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 45.5 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 39.1 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 37.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 34.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 31.1 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 25.6 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 25.5 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Feb 19, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
BKN
Haywood Highsmith - Feb 9, 2026
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
John Tonje - Feb 8, 2026
CHA
Xavier Tillman - Feb 9, 2026
Mason Plumlee - Feb 19, 2026
Coby White - Feb 19, 2026
Malaki Branham - Feb 9, 2026
CHI
Zach Collins - Feb 19, 2026
Jalen Smith - Feb 9, 2026
Tre Jones - Feb 9, 2026
Josh Giddey - Feb 9, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
Max Strus - Feb 19, 2026
Evan Mobley - Feb 11, 2026
DAL
DEN
Peyton Watson - Mar 9, 2026
Aaron Gordon - Feb 27, 2026
Spencer Jones - Feb 9, 2026
Tamar Bates - Apr 1, 2026
DET
Tolu Smith - Feb 11, 2026
Jalen Duren - Feb 9, 2026
Bobi Klintman - Feb 9, 2026
Dario Saric - Feb 9, 2026
GSW
Kristaps Porzingis - Feb 19, 2026
Seth Curry - Feb 19, 2026
Stephen Curry - Feb 9, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
HOU
IND
Ivica Zubac - Feb 10, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Obi Toppin - Feb 19, 2026
Kobe Brown - Feb 10, 2026
LAC
Isaiah Jackson - Feb 10, 2026
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
Darius Garland - Feb 10, 2026
Bennedict Mathurin - Feb 10, 2026
LAL
MEM
Santi Aldama - Feb 9, 2026
Georges Niang - Feb 9, 2026
Cam Spencer - Feb 8, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Feb 8, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Feb 20, 2026
Zach Edey - Mar 4, 2026
Ja Morant - Feb 20, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Feb 9, 2026
Cedric Coward - Feb 8, 2026
MIA
Tyler Herro - Feb 9, 2026
Terry Rozier - Feb 20, 2026
MIL
Taurean Prince - Feb 20, 2026
Ousmane Dieng - Feb 9, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Feb 20, 2026
Kyle Kuzma - Feb 9, 2026
MIN
NOP
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
Karl-Anthony Towns - Feb 8, 2026
Jose Alvarado - Feb 8, 2026
OG Anunoby - Feb 8, 2026
OKC
Ajay Mitchell - Feb 9, 2026
Nikola Topic - Feb 20, 2026
Jalen Williams - Feb 9, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Feb 20, 2026
ORL
Franz Wagner - Feb 9, 2026
Colin Castleton - Feb 9, 2026
PHI
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
PHX
POR
Kris Murray - Feb 9, 2026
Deni Avdija - Feb 9, 2026
Matisse Thybulle - Feb 9, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Robert Williams III - Feb 9, 2026
Scoot Henderson - Feb 9, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Feb 9, 2026
SAC
Zach LaVine - Feb 9, 2026
Malik Monk - Feb 9, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Feb 9, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Feb 9, 2026
Keegan Murray - Feb 19, 2026
SAS
Lindy Waters III - Feb 10, 2026
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Feb 19, 2026
RJ Barrett - Feb 8, 2026
Jakob Poeltl - Feb 8, 2026
Trayce Jackson-Davis - Feb 8, 2026
UTA
WAS
Jaden Hardy - Feb 8, 2026
Tre Johnson - Feb 8, 2026
Anthony Davis - Oct 1, 2026
Trae Young - Feb 19, 2026
Kyshawn George - Feb 8, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Alex Sarr - Feb 8, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Feb 8, 2026
Bilal Coulibaly - Feb 8, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026