Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, November 12, 10:19 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.9	19.3	27.4	19.5	15.6	81.8
NYK	East	98.6	11.0	19.9	18.0	16.9	65.9
MIA	East	89.4	6.2	11.9	13.9	13.5	45.5
DET	East	86.8	4.2	9.1	11.4	12.1	36.9
BOS	East	86.0	9.9	16.3	16.8	13.6	56.6
PHI	East	73.6	3.1	6.7	8.8	9.2	27.8
ATL	East	71.1	3.2	6.5	8.9	8.9	27.5
ORL	East	62.8	2.8	5.6	7.7	7.7	23.8
MIL	East	60.7	1.7	3.6	5.7	6.3	17.3
CHI	East	36.1	0.9	1.7	3.1	3.2	8.8
TOR	East	34.6	0.7	1.7	2.7	3.0	8.2
IND	East	0.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	34.7	33.7	16.9	9.2	94.5
HOU	West	99.9	15.7	24.6	19.5	17.0	76.8
DEN	West	99.5	11.1	19.9	18.2	17.3	66.5
LAL	West	93.7	4.2	8.9	11.6	12.3	37.0
GSW	West	91.1	6.2	11.3	14.1	12.9	44.5
MIN	West	85.5	3.5	7.1	10.3	10.1	31.1
SAS	West	82.7	2.5	5.2	8.2	8.4	24.4
LAC	West	54.4	1.2	2.5	4.2	4.2	12.1
MEM	West	39.3	0.7	1.4	2.5	2.4	6.9
POR	West	35.0	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.8	4.7
DAL	West	10.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.1
PHX	West	7.8	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
SAC	West	0.5		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
NOP	West	0.1			<0.1		<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, November 12, 10:19 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	55.9			69.3	20.3
NYK	East	51.6			20.0	36.4
MIA	East	47.5			3.9	12.8
DET	East	47.0			2.6	9.9
BOS	East	46.1			1.6	6.9
PHI	East	44.7			0.9	4.4
ATL	East	44.3			0.7	3.8
ORL	East	43.4			0.4	2.3
MIL	East	43.3			0.4	2.3
CHI	East	40.5			0.1	0.5
TOR	East	40.4			0.1	0.5
IND	East	29.5
CHA	East	27.9
BKN	East	19.6
WAS	East	17.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	66.3			97.2	2.6
HOU	West	55.8			2.1	59.5
DEN	West	53.2			0.7	29.0
LAL	West	47.9			<0.1	3.7
GSW	West	46.9			<0.1	2.5
MIN	West	45.8			<0.1	1.3
SAS	West	45.5			<0.1	1.3
LAC	West	41.4				0.1
MEM	West	39.6				<0.1
POR	West	39.4				<0.1
DAL	West	35.1
PHX	West	34.9
SAC	West	29.2
NOP	West	26.0
UTA	West	23.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.