NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, March 12, 10:03 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 14.2 | 23.3 | 19.2 | 17.6 | 74.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 20.4 | 29.2 | 19.7 | 15.4 | 84.7 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.9 | 23.5 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 74.4 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 14.8 | 24.2 | 19.4 | 17.5 | 76.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 92.1 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 27.3 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 86.5 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 19.9 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 78.6 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 48.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 42.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 51.9 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 17.4 | 10.0 | 94.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 14.1 | 23.9 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 74.9 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 99.7 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 18.7 | 17.7 | 67.3 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.1 | 6.0 | 12.4 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 48.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 97.9 | 4.6 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 41.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 92.6 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 30.7 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 85.9 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 23.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 65.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 41.7 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 18.0 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, March 12, 10:03 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.2 | 93.7 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.7 | 5.9 | 69.2 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.2 | 0.3 | 19.5 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.8 | 0.1 | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 46.3 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 45.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 44.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 42.9 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 42.6 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 42.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 34.3 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.5 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 22.1 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 63.4 | 92.1 | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 59.5 | 7.9 | 92.0 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.3 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.0 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 49.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 47.9 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.5 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 43.7 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 41.7 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 29.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 27.8 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.3 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 24.4 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 20.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Mar 12, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
BKN
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Mar 14, 2026
Ziaire Williams - Mar 12, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Mar 14, 2026
Nolan Traore - Mar 14, 2026
BOS
Payton Pritchard - Mar 12, 2026
Nikola Vucevic - Mar 29, 2026
CHA
Liam McNeeley - Mar 14, 2026
Ryan Kalkbrenner - Mar 14, 2026
Grant Williams - Mar 14, 2026
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 14, 2026
CHI
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Collin Sexton - Mar 12, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 12, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Mar 12, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Patrick Williams - Mar 12, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Mar 16, 2026
CLE
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
Peyton Watson - Mar 17, 2026
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
Ausar Thompson - Mar 13, 2026
Caris LeVert - Mar 12, 2026
GSW
Moses Moody - Mar 13, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Quinten Post - Mar 13, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 13, 2026
De'Anthony Melton - Mar 13, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 23, 2026
HOU
Jae'Sean Tate - Mar 16, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
Dorian Finney-Smith - Mar 13, 2026
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
IND
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
Ivica Zubac - Mar 12, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Mar 12, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Mar 12, 2026
T.J. McConnell - Mar 12, 2026
LAC
LAL
MEM
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Mar 13, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Mar 18, 2026
Santi Aldama - Mar 23, 2026
Taj Gibson - Mar 12, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 20, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Walter Clayton Jr. - Mar 12, 2026
MIA
Kel'el Ware - Mar 12, 2026
Nikola Jovic - Mar 23, 2026
Andrew Wiggins - Mar 14, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
Tyler Herro - Mar 12, 2026
Norman Powell - Mar 14, 2026
MIL
Cormac Ryan - Mar 14, 2026
Bobby Portis - Mar 12, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 12, 2026
Jericho Sims - Mar 12, 2026
MIN
Ayo Dosunmu - Mar 13, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 13, 2026
NYK
Josh Hart - Mar 13, 2026
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
OKC
Chet Holmgren - Mar 12, 2026
Branden Carlson - Mar 15, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Hartenstein - Mar 15, 2026
Alex Caruso - Mar 12, 2026
Jalen Williams - Mar 15, 2026
ORL
Franz Wagner - Mar 16, 2026
Anthony Black - Mar 16, 2026
PHI
Joel Embiid - Mar 14, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
PHX
Dillon Brooks - Mar 28, 2026
Mark Williams - Mar 28, 2026
POR
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 2, 2026
SAC
Dylan Cardwell - Mar 19, 2026
Devin Carter - Mar 14, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Malik Monk - Mar 14, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Mar 14, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 14, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
TOR
UTA
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
John Konchar - Mar 13, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Mar 13, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
WAS
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 12, 2026
Jamir Watkins - Mar 12, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026