Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, December 9, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
BOS	East	99.6	17.8	25.6	19.7	15.6	78.8
CLE	East	99.6	15.7	23.8	19.4	16.1	75.0
NYK	East	99.3	10.7	18.8	17.4	16.7	63.6
DET	East	99.0	6.6	13.1	14.1	15.0	48.7
ORL	East	97.4	7.4	13.8	15.4	14.9	51.5
ATL	East	85.3	2.9	6.2	9.9	9.4	28.4
MIA	East	84.3	2.9	5.8	9.3	9.3	27.2
PHI	East	61.6	1.1	2.5	4.8	4.9	13.4
TOR	East	59.6	0.9	2.3	4.2	4.5	11.9
MIL	East	7.9	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9
CHI	East	4.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
IND	East	1.7	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
CHA	East	0.4		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	0.2		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	34.7	34.0	16.6	9.4	94.7
HOU	West	99.9	17.0	26.2	19.7	16.4	79.4
DEN	West	98.4	8.1	15.6	16.0	16.2	55.9
GSW	West	95.1	8.7	15.0	16.4	14.7	54.8
LAL	West	92.3	2.9	6.7	9.6	10.2	29.5
SAS	West	92.1	3.9	8.3	10.8	11.5	34.6
MIN	West	82.6	3.1	6.0	9.0	8.9	27.1
MEM	West	65.3	1.7	3.6	5.9	5.7	16.9
PHX	West	42.8	0.4	0.9	1.7	1.9	4.9
DAL	West	14.7	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	1.3
POR	West	10.6	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7
LAC	West	6.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
SAC	West	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, December 9, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
BOS	East	52.6			28.7	22.9
CLE	East	52.4			24.5	23.3
NYK	East	51.4			21.1	20.0
DET	East	51.4			16.6	18.1
ORL	East	49.0			7.4	11.2
ATL	East	45.6			0.8	2.1
MIA	East	44.9			0.7	1.9
PHI	East	42.3			0.1	0.3
TOR	East	41.7			0.1	0.2
MIL	East	32.9
CHI	East	31.5
IND	East	29.0
CHA	East	26.8
BKN	East	25.5
WAS	East	15.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.3			98.9	1.1
HOU	West	57.1			1.1	78.1
DEN	West	51.3			<0.1	11.7
GSW	West	48.9			<0.1	3.2
LAL	West	47.9			<0.1	2.8
SAS	West	47.7			<0.1	2.3
MIN	West	46.1				0.7
MEM	West	43.4				0.1
PHX	West	41.1				<0.1
DAL	West	37.3
POR	West	36.7
LAC	West	35.1
SAC	West	26.2
UTA	West	24.7
NOP	West	22.4
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.