Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, November 28, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.8	17.5	25.2	19.1	16.2	77.9
DET	East	97.5	5.8	11.9	13.7	14.8	46.2
NYK	East	97.3	8.3	15.8	16.2	15.9	56.2
ORL	East	96.4	8.2	15.0	16.1	15.2	54.5
MIA	East	95.2	5.8	11.1	13.4	13.9	44.1
BOS	East	91.1	9.4	15.9	17.5	14.5	57.3
TOR	East	86.2	2.8	6.0	8.8	9.8	27.3
ATL	East	77.1	2.7	5.7	8.8	8.7	25.9
PHI	East	35.4	0.5	1.3	2.6	2.7	7.2
CHI	East	12.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	1.6
MIL	East	11.8	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	1.7
IND	East	0.1	<0.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.9	33.9	15.8	8.2	95.7
HOU	West	99.9	19.9	28.4	19.5	15.4	83.1
DEN	West	98.9	8.9	16.6	17.0	16.8	59.3
LAL	West	97.1	4.4	9.5	12.1	13.3	39.3
GSW	West	94.7	7.1	13.2	15.8	14.1	50.2
SAS	West	90.7	3.6	7.5	10.6	10.6	32.3
MIN	West	81.8	2.8	5.6	8.4	8.2	25.0
PHX	West	47.1	0.3	0.8	1.5	1.9	4.5
MEM	West	46.0	0.7	1.3	2.7	2.6	7.3
LAC	West	23.3	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	2.1
POR	West	17.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	1.2
DAL	West	3.2	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
SAC	West	0.1				<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, November 28, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	54.6			51.5	21.9
DET	East	50.8			13.0	18.4
NYK	East	50.6			12.9	17.5
ORL	East	49.8			9.3	15.4
MIA	East	49.4			7.5	13.2
BOS	East	47.3			2.7	6.3
TOR	East	46.7			2.3	4.9
ATL	East	45.0			0.7	2.3
PHI	East	40.2			<0.1	0.1
CHI	East	36.3				<0.1
MIL	East	36.2				<0.1
IND	East	26.0
CHA	East	25.6
BKN	East	23.9
WAS	East	18.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	68.4			96.8	3.1
HOU	West	59.5			3.1	86.3
DEN	West	51.4			<0.1	6.4
LAL	West	49.6			<0.1	2.4
GSW	West	47.7				0.8
SAS	West	47.0				0.7
MIN	West	44.9				0.2
PHX	West	40.8				<0.1
MEM	West	40.1				<0.1
LAC	West	37.5
POR	West	36.7
DAL	West	32.3
SAC	West	26.9
UTA	West	23.7
NOP	West	23.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.