NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, February 19, 10:11 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 18.3 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 16.1 | 81.4 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 99.9 | 19.6 | 28.3 | 20.1 | 15.6 | 83.6 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 18.4 | 27.1 | 20.0 | 16.2 | 81.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 99.9 | 14.1 | 23.4 | 19.7 | 16.9 | 74.1 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 92.5 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 18.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 82.4 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 20.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 74.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 73.0 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 45.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 24.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 7.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 16.6 | 9.5 | 94.3 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 99.9 | 11.1 | 20.2 | 17.6 | 17.7 | 66.5 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.4 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 17.1 | 16.7 | 59.3 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 98.4 | 7.1 | 13.8 | 15.7 | 15.6 | 52.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 96.3 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 14.0 | 48.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 88.7 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 26.8 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 85.7 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 79.9 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 28.9 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 27.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 23.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 1.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, February 19, 10:11 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.7 | 92.5 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 53.2 | 3.7 | 48.9 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 52.4 | 2.9 | 25.3 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 51.1 | 0.9 | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.7 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 43.5 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 43.2 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 40.7 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 39.4 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 36.6 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.5 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 23.4 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 20.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 61.9 | 96.6 | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 55.3 | 3.3 | 81.9 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.9 | <0.1 | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 49.8 | <0.1 | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.8 | <0.1 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.7 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 46.6 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 44.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 40.4 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 33.6 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 28.8 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 25.8 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 25.5 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 19.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jonathan Kuminga - Feb 26, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
BKN
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Mar 4, 2026
CHA
Liam McNeeley - Feb 20, 2026
Coby White - Feb 20, 2026
CHI
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Collins - Feb 26, 2026
Jalen Smith - Feb 19, 2026
Tre Jones - Feb 19, 2026
Josh Giddey - Feb 19, 2026
CLE
Dean Wade - Feb 19, 2026
Nae'Qwan Tomlin - Feb 20, 2026
Evan Mobley - Feb 19, 2026
Max Strus - Feb 27, 2026
DAL
Naji Marshall - Feb 20, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Cooper Flagg - Feb 20, 2026
Daniel Gafford - Feb 20, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Caleb Martin - Feb 20, 2026
DEN
Jalen Pickett - Feb 19, 2026
Peyton Watson - Mar 9, 2026
Aaron Gordon - Feb 27, 2026
Spencer Jones - Feb 19, 2026
Tamar Bates - Apr 1, 2026
DET
Ronald Holland II - Feb 19, 2026
GSW
Kristaps Porzingis - Feb 19, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 5, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Stephen Curry - Feb 22, 2026
Will Richard - Feb 19, 2026
HOU
IND
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
T.J. McConnell - Feb 19, 2026
Ivica Zubac - Mar 1, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Feb 20, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Feb 19, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Obi Toppin - Mar 1, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Feb 19, 2026
LAC
LAL
Deandre Ayton - Feb 20, 2026
MEM
Santi Aldama - Feb 20, 2026
Walter Clayton Jr. - Feb 20, 2026
Zach Edey - Mar 4, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Feb 20, 2026
Cedric Coward - Feb 20, 2026
Ja Morant - Feb 20, 2026
MIA
Pelle Larsson - Feb 20, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
Andrew Wiggins - Feb 20, 2026
Tyler Herro - Feb 20, 2026
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Feb 20, 2026
Taurean Prince - Mar 2, 2026
Ryan Rollins - Feb 20, 2026
Myles Turner - Feb 20, 2026
MIN
Terrence Shannon Jr. - Feb 20, 2026
NOP
Micah Peavy - Feb 20, 2026
Yves Missi - Feb 20, 2026
Dejounte Murray - Feb 20, 2026
Trey Murphy III - Feb 20, 2026
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
OG Anunoby - Feb 19, 2026
OKC
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Ajay Mitchell - Feb 20, 2026
Branden Carlson - Feb 20, 2026
Jalen Williams - Feb 20, 2026
Isaiah Hartenstein - Feb 20, 2026
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Feb 20, 2026
ORL
Colin Castleton - Feb 19, 2026
Franz Wagner - Mar 11, 2026
PHI
PHX
Jalen Green - Feb 19, 2026
Cole Anthony - Feb 21, 2026
Isaiah Livers - Feb 19, 2026
Grayson Allen - Feb 19, 2026
POR
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Kris Murray - Feb 20, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Feb 20, 2026
Matisse Thybulle - Feb 20, 2026
Robert Williams III - Feb 20, 2026
SAC
Dylan Cardwell - Mar 19, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Feb 21, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Feb 19, 2026
Keegan Murray - Feb 19, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Malik Monk - Feb 19, 2026
SAS
TOR
Collin Murray-Boyles - Feb 19, 2026
Chucky Hepburn - Feb 20, 2026
UTA
Oscar Tshiebwe - Feb 20, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Feb 20, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Keyonte George - Feb 20, 2026
Elijah Harkless - Feb 20, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
Anthony Davis - Oct 1, 2026
Trae Young - Feb 28, 2026
Tristan Vukcevic - Feb 19, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Feb 28, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Alex Sarr - Feb 28, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026