Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, November 29, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.6	15.7	23.8	19.3	16.4	75.3
ORL	East	97.5	8.4	16.0	16.6	15.9	56.9
NYK	East	97.3	8.2	15.5	16.4	15.6	55.8
DET	East	96.4	5.6	11.3	13.3	14.4	44.6
MIA	East	93.5	5.1	10.5	13.5	13.6	42.7
BOS	East	89.2	8.9	14.8	17.5	14.1	55.3
TOR	East	83.2	2.5	5.5	8.7	9.4	26.2
ATL	East	84.6	3.4	7.2	10.6	10.6	31.8
PHI	East	38.7	0.8	1.6	3.1	3.1	8.6
MIL	East	10.6	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.6
CHI	East	9.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	1.3
IND	East	0.2	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.0	34.1	16.2	8.8	95.1
HOU	West	99.9	19.0	27.4	19.8	15.9	82.1
DEN	West	98.3	8.0	15.3	16.6	16.0	55.9
LAL	West	96.9	4.3	9.3	11.8	13.3	38.7
SAS	West	94.0	4.5	9.2	12.3	12.4	38.4
GSW	West	94.1	7.0	12.8	15.1	13.7	48.7
MIN	West	79.8	2.6	5.1	8.3	7.8	23.9
PHX	West	46.5	0.4	0.9	1.7	2.0	5.0
MEM	West	53.1	0.9	1.9	3.3	3.4	9.6
LAC	West	18.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	1.5
POR	West	16.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.1
DAL	West	2.8	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
SAC	West	0.1				<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, November 29, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	52.4			43.8	22.5
ORL	East	50.1			16.2	18.8
NYK	East	50.0			14.5	17.5
DET	East	49.0			11.9	16.1
MIA	East	48.2			6.9	10.9
BOS	East	45.9			2.7	5.4
TOR	East	45.8			2.0	4.3
ATL	East	45.5			2.0	4.3
PHI	East	39.9			<0.1	0.2
MIL	East	35.1				<0.1
CHI	East	34.8			<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	26.5
CHA	East	25.8
BKN	East	22.7
WAS	East	15.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.4			97.2	2.8
HOU	West	57.8			2.8	87.1
DEN	West	49.2			<0.1	4.7
LAL	West	49.0			<0.1	3.1
SAS	West	47.4				1.4
GSW	West	46.5			<0.1	0.8
MIN	West	43.5				0.1
PHX	West	40.4				<0.1
MEM	West	40.0				<0.1
LAC	West	35.7
POR	West	35.7
DAL	West	31.2
SAC	West	25.8
UTA	West	23.8
NOP	West	22.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.