NBA Season Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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NBA Cup Probabilities
Updated
· The NBA Cup knockout round is an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wildcard from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
BOS  | East | 58.0 | 4.6 | 44.8 | 21.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | |||||||||||
DET  | East | 53.7 | 11.5 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | |||||||||||
NYK  | East | 48.4 | 24.2 | 8.9 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 3.7 | |||||||||||
TOR  | East | 47.6 | 26.6 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | |||||||||||
PHI  | East | 46.3 | 30.6 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | |||||||||||
MIA  | East | 44.2 | 35.4 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 6.5 | |||||||||||
CLE  | East | 43.2 | 39.0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | |||||||||||
ATL  | East | 41.4 | 42.2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 9.1 | |||||||||||
ORL  | East | 38.9 | 42.8 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 10.6 | |||||||||||
IND  | East | 36.7 | 43.2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 12.4 | |||||||||||
CHA  | East | 32.6 | 36.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 12.5 | |||||||||||
WAS  | East | 28.4 | 23.3 | <0.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 9.3 | |||||||||||
CHI  | East | 25.3 | 16.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 6.7 | |||||||||||
BKN  | East | 25.1 | 14.8 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 6.4 | |||||||||||
MIL  | East | 22.4 | 9.2 | <0.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 4.2 | ||||||||||||
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
SAS  | West | 60.5 | 5.2 | 43.3 | 21.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | |||||||||||
HOU  | West | 54.5 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | |||||||||||
OKC  | West | 54.0 | 17.7 | 14.8 | 17.1 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | |||||||||||
POR  | West | 49.3 | 31.5 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | |||||||||||
LAL  | West | 48.9 | 32.6 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | |||||||||||
MIN  | West | 48.5 | 33.9 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 6.2 | |||||||||||
DEN  | West | 46.9 | 37.9 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | |||||||||||
GSW  | West | 46.2 | 39.2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 7.8 | |||||||||||
MEM  | West | 43.0 | 43.9 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 10.8 | |||||||||||
PHX  | West | 37.4 | 39.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 12.5 | |||||||||||
DAL  | West | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 12.1 | |||||||||||
NOP  | West | 31.9 | 24.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 9.7 | |||||||||||
LAC  | West | 31.4 | 23.6 | <0.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 9.4 | |||||||||||
UTA  | West | 28.4 | 15.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 6.7 | |||||||||||
SAC  | West | 20.3 | 2.9 | <0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| BOS | East | 98.0 | 24.6 | 26.7 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 78.6 | |||||||||||||||
| DET | East | 93.9 | 14.8 | 19.4 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 60.9 | |||||||||||||||
| NYK | East | 85.8 | 11.8 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 50.9 | |||||||||||||||
| TOR | East | 83.7 | 10.6 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 47.9 | |||||||||||||||
| PHI | East | 78.7 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 35.6 | |||||||||||||||
| MIA | East | 72.8 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 30.8 | |||||||||||||||
| CLE | East | 69.3 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 30.3 | |||||||||||||||
| ATL | East | 62.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 23.2 | |||||||||||||||
| ORL | East | 52.3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 17.3 | |||||||||||||||
| IND | East | 43.8 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 14.5 | |||||||||||||||
| CHA | East | 27.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||
| WAS | East | 13.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
| CHI | East | 7.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
| BKN | East | 7.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
| MIL | East | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| SAS | West | 97.9 | 25.5 | 26.8 | 15.2 | 11.7 | 79.1 | |||||||||||||||
| HOU | West | 91.4 | 16.0 | 19.5 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 61.4 | |||||||||||||||
| OKC | West | 90.4 | 12.0 | 16.4 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 53.6 | |||||||||||||||
| POR | West | 79.0 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 39.7 | |||||||||||||||
| LAL | West | 76.7 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 35.7 | |||||||||||||||
| MIN | West | 75.3 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 33.6 | |||||||||||||||
| DEN | West | 69.8 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 31.4 | |||||||||||||||
| GSW | West | 67.8 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 27.0 | |||||||||||||||
| MEM | West | 54.3 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 18.8 | |||||||||||||||
| PHX | West | 32.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||
| DAL | West | 27.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||
| NOP | West | 13.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||
| LAC | West | 14.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||
| UTA | West | 8.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
| SAC | West | 1.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Injured players and estimated return date
ATL
Jalen Johnson · Nov 5, 2026
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Nov 20, 2026
Jock Landale · Nov 5, 2026
BKN
Tyler Bilodeau · Nov 6, 2026
Egor Demin · Nov 7, 2026
BOS
Devin Carter · Nov 8, 2026
Jayson Tatum · Nov 6, 2026
CHA
Grant Williams · Nov 9, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Nov 5, 2026
CHI
Nic Claxton · Nov 5, 2026
CLE
Peyton Watson · Nov 5, 2026
Khalifa Diop · Nov 5, 2026
Nae'Qwan Tomlin · Nov 16, 2026
Jaylon Tyson · Nov 5, 2026
DAL
Sergio de Larrea · Nov 6, 2026
Santi Aldama · Nov 5, 2026
Max Christie · Nov 6, 2026
Dereck Lively II · Nov 12, 2026
Tarik Biberovic · Nov 12, 2026
DEN
Spencer Jones · Nov 5, 2026
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
DET
Jalen Duren · Nov 9, 2026
Isaiah Joe · Nov 5, 2026
GSW
Kristaps Porziņģis · Oct 1, 2027
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
Gui Santos · Nov 6, 2026
HOU
Clint Capela · Nov 5, 2026
Steven Adams · Nov 9, 2026
IND
Ben Sheppard · Jan 2, 2027
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Nov 5, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton · Nov 13, 2026
Johnny Furphy · Jan 2, 2027
T.J. McConnell · Nov 9, 2026
LAC
Brandon Ingram · Nov 8, 2026
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 8, 2026
Bradley Beal · Nov 8, 2026
LAL
Adou Thiero · Nov 6, 2026
MEM
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Nov 5, 2026
MIL
Kam Jones · Nov 6, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
Anthony Edwards · Dec 21, 2026
NOP
Trey Murphy III · Nov 6, 2026
Yves Missi · Nov 8, 2026
NYK
Josh Hart · Nov 7, 2026
OKC
Nikola Topic · Nov 5, 2026
Otega Oweh · Jul 1, 2027
Chet Holmgren · Jan 2, 2027
Thomas Sorber · Nov 5, 2026
Cason Wallace · Mar 2, 2027
Jaylin Williams · Nov 6, 2026
Jalen Williams · Mar 2, 2027
ORL
Jonathan Isaac · Nov 10, 2026
Anthony Black · Nov 5, 2026
Jalen Suggs · Nov 9, 2026
Noah Penda · Nov 18, 2026
Paolo Banchero · Nov 22, 2026
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
PHI
Dominick Barlow · Nov 5, 2026
Ariel Hukporti · Oct 1, 2027
PHX
POR
Ja Morant · Dec 1, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe · Mar 2, 2027
SAC
Daeqwon Plowden · Nov 6, 2026
Ben Simmons · Oct 1, 2027
Maxime Raynaud · Nov 10, 2026
Keegan Murray · Nov 10, 2026
SAS
Jayden Quaintance · Dec 3, 2026
Tobias Harris · Nov 9, 2026
TOR
Kawhi Leonard · Nov 23, 2026
Nate Bittle · Nov 9, 2026
UTA
WAS
Jamir Watkins · Apr 2, 2027
Reece Beekman · Dec 3, 2026
Justin Champagnie · Feb 25, 2027
Tristan Vukcevic · Nov 9, 2026
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.