Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, January 13, 10:16 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	12.0	21.2	18.2	17.6	69.0
BOS	East	99.7	18.3	27.0	19.8	15.8	80.9
NYK	East	99.6	10.2	18.6	17.3	17.5	63.7
CLE	East	95.4	10.2	17.0	18.0	15.1	60.4
PHI	East	88.9	3.2	7.0	10.0	10.3	30.4
ORL	East	85.6	3.7	7.7	10.9	10.6	33.0
TOR	East	82.7	2.2	5.0	7.8	8.3	23.2
MIA	East	71.4	2.1	4.6	7.3	7.3	21.4
ATL	East	56.7	1.5	3.1	5.3	5.5	15.5
MIL	East	12.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	1.7
CHI	East	6.7	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
CHA	East	1.4	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
BKN	East	0.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	32.9	33.4	17.2	10.1	93.5
SAS	West	99.2	8.6	16.2	16.3	16.7	57.8
HOU	West	99.3	12.0	21.0	19.0	16.6	68.6
DEN	West	97.5	7.3	13.9	15.4	15.3	51.8
MIN	West	95.3	5.4	10.7	13.5	13.5	43.0
GSW	West	88.3	5.5	10.0	13.5	12.1	41.1
PHX	West	84.3	2.0	4.7	7.6	8.2	22.5
LAL	West	60.4	0.7	1.8	3.5	3.6	9.6
MEM	West	33.3	0.6	1.2	2.4	2.2	6.4
LAC	West	26.3	0.4	0.9	1.4	1.4	4.1
POR	West	15.7	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	1.4
DAL	West	0.4		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
SAC	West
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, January 13, 10:16 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	54.0			60.0	23.7
BOS	East	51.4			19.5	33.3
NYK	East	51.1			17.3	29.4
CLE	East	47.2			1.6	5.9
PHI	East	45.8			0.8	3.8
ORL	East	45.0			0.4	1.7
TOR	East	44.5			0.3	1.2
MIA	East	43.3			0.1	0.7
ATL	East	41.8			<0.1	0.2
MIL	East	36.4
CHI	East	35.3
CHA	East	32.1
BKN	East	28.1
IND	East	24.8
WAS	East	21.4
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.8			99.7	0.3
SAS	West	51.9			0.2	38.3
HOU	West	51.7			0.1	32.5
DEN	West	49.8			0.1	14.2
MIN	West	49.1			<0.1	10.1
GSW	West	46.5				2.4
PHX	West	46.3			<0.1	1.9
LAL	West	43.6				0.3
MEM	West	40.3				<0.1
LAC	West	39.7				<0.1
POR	West	38.7				<0.1
DAL	West	31.6
UTA	West	27.5
SAC	West	23.2
NOP	West	22.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.