NBA Season Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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NBA Cup Probabilities
Updated
· The NBA Cup Knockout Rounds are an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wild card from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
BOS  | East | 60.4 | 2.0 | 61.0 | 18.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||||||||||
DET  | East | 52.1 | 13.0 | 15.6 | 23.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | |||||||||||
NYK  | East | 49.2 | 20.5 | 8.9 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.8 | |||||||||||
TOR  | East | 45.3 | 32.3 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 5.5 | |||||||||||
PHI  | East | 44.5 | 35.4 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 6.4 | |||||||||||
CLE  | East | 43.5 | 38.2 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 7.3 | |||||||||||
MIA  | East | 42.8 | 38.9 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.9 | |||||||||||
ATL  | East | 42.0 | 41.7 | 1.9 | 5.3 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 8.5 | |||||||||||
ORL  | East | 39.0 | 45.1 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 11.2 | |||||||||||
IND  | East | 38.3 | 46.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.5 | |||||||||||
CHA  | East | 31.9 | 35.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 13.1 | |||||||||||
BKN  | East | 26.2 | 17.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | |||||||||||
CHI  | East | 25.0 | 15.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 6.7 | |||||||||||
WAS  | East | 24.8 | 13.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | |||||||||||
MIL  | East | 19.9 | 5.1 | <0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | ||||||||||||
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
SAS  | West | 61.9 | 4.4 | 46.8 | 20.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | |||||||||||
HOU  | West | 55.4 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 18.1 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | |||||||||||
LAL  | West | 54.0 | 21.7 | 11.3 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 3.0 | |||||||||||
OKC  | West | 53.6 | 22.4 | 10.3 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 3.0 | |||||||||||
MIN  | West | 50.5 | 33.8 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 5.9 | |||||||||||
POR  | West | 49.6 | 36.6 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 6.5 | |||||||||||
DEN  | West | 48.0 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | |||||||||||
GSW  | West | 47.7 | 42.8 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 8.3 | |||||||||||
MEM  | West | 42.2 | 49.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 14.3 | |||||||||||
DAL  | West | 40.9 | 48.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 15.2 | |||||||||||
PHX  | West | 39.2 | 45.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.2 | |||||||||||
LAC  | West | 31.1 | 20.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 9.2 | |||||||||||
NOP  | West | 26.0 | 7.8 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.0 | |||||||||||
UTA  | West | 25.6 | 7.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | |||||||||||||
SAC  | West | 19.5 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| BOS | East | 99.4 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 87.7 | |||||||||||||||
| DET | East | 93.6 | 14.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 59.8 | |||||||||||||||
| NYK | East | 89.2 | 14.3 | 18.3 | 13.8 | 11.4 | 57.8 | |||||||||||||||
| TOR | East | 79.0 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 41.1 | |||||||||||||||
| PHI | East | 74.1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 28.4 | |||||||||||||||
| CLE | East | 72.7 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 31.5 | |||||||||||||||
| MIA | East | 69.8 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 26.4 | |||||||||||||||
| ATL | East | 66.6 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 24.5 | |||||||||||||||
| ORL | East | 55.1 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 18.2 | |||||||||||||||
| IND | East | 51.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||
| CHA | East | 25.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||
| BKN | East | 8.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
| CHI | East | 7.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
| WAS | East | 5.6 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
| MIL | East | 1.9 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| SAS | West | 98.5 | 25.2 | 27.2 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 79.8 | |||||||||||||||
| HOU | West | 92.2 | 15.0 | 19.4 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 60.6 | |||||||||||||||
| LAL | West | 88.3 | 8.5 | 13.8 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 44.7 | |||||||||||||||
| OKC | West | 88.7 | 11.3 | 16.2 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 52.4 | |||||||||||||||
| MIN | West | 78.9 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 34.9 | |||||||||||||||
| POR | West | 77.5 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 37.0 | |||||||||||||||
| DEN | West | 70.7 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 29.5 | |||||||||||||||
| GSW | West | 70.5 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 30.7 | |||||||||||||||
| MEM | West | 46.5 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||
| DAL | West | 38.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||
| PHX | West | 33.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||
| LAC | West | 10.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
| NOP | West | 2.8 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
| UTA | West | 2.9 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
| SAC | West | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Injured players and estimated return date
ATL
Keshon Gilbert · Nov 13, 2026
Asa Newell · Nov 13, 2026
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Nov 20, 2026
BKN
BOS
Paul George · Nov 15, 2026
Devin Carter · Nov 12, 2026
CHA
Moussa Diabate · Nov 12, 2026
Dennis Schroder · Nov 25, 2026
Brandon Miller · Nov 13, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Nov 13, 2026
Grant Williams · Nov 12, 2026
Kon Knueppel · Dec 12, 2026
CHI
CLE
DAL
DEN
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
DET
Isaiah Joe · Nov 17, 2026
Jalen Duren · Nov 24, 2026
GSW
Kristaps Porziņģis · Jan 2, 2027
Gary Payton II · Nov 12, 2026
Brandon Williams · Nov 22, 2026
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
HOU
Steven Adams · Nov 15, 2026
Clint Capela · Nov 15, 2026
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal · Nov 29, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 17, 2026
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Cam Christie · Nov 13, 2026
Brandon Ingram · Nov 13, 2026
LAL
Quentin Grimes · Nov 12, 2026
MEM
MIL
Myles Turner · Nov 13, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
Anthony Edwards · Dec 21, 2026
NOP
Trendon Watford · Nov 12, 2026
Bennedict Mathurin · Nov 13, 2026
Trey Murphy III · Nov 12, 2026
Yves Missi · Nov 16, 2026
OKC
Otega Oweh · Jul 1, 2027
Thomas Sorber · Nov 13, 2026
Ajay Mitchell · Nov 13, 2026
Jalen Williams · Mar 2, 2027
Nikola Topic · Nov 13, 2026
Jaylin Williams · Nov 12, 2026
Chet Holmgren · Jan 2, 2027
Cason Wallace · Mar 2, 2027
ORL
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
Jamal Cain · Nov 13, 2026
Tristan da Silva · Nov 13, 2026
Noah Penda · Nov 18, 2026
Jonathan Isaac · Nov 16, 2026
Paolo Banchero · Nov 22, 2026
Jalen Suggs · Nov 16, 2026
PHI
PHX
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
POR
Vit Krejci · Jan 12, 2027
Ja Morant · Dec 1, 2026
Chris Youngblood · Nov 13, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe · Mar 2, 2027
SAC
SAS
TOR
Kawhi Leonard · Nov 23, 2026
Trayce Jackson-Davis · Nov 12, 2026
Nate Bittle · Nov 15, 2026
Scottie Barnes · Nov 12, 2026
UTA
Trey Alexander · Nov 12, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Dec 14, 2026
Lauri Markkanen · Dec 9, 2026
Jusuf Nurkić · Nov 20, 2026
WAS
Reece Beekman · Dec 3, 2026
Justin Champagnie · Feb 25, 2027
Tristan Vukcevic · Nov 16, 2026
Jamir Watkins · Apr 2, 2027
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.