Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, March 18, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Bulls | 59% | 95 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Magic | 62% | 103 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Raptors | 66% | 103 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Heat | 62% | 95 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Knicks | 54% | 105 | 95 |
 | 23 | Pistons | 46% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Bobcats | 21% | 88 | 82 |
 | 9 | Thunder | 79% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Celtics | 48% | 97 | 77 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 36% | 88 | 95 | |
 | 24 | Bucks | 64% | 93 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 98 |
 | 1 | Lakers | 86% | 107 | 106 |
Thursday, March 17, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 66% | 95 | 84 |
| 22 | Nets | 34% | 90 | 73 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Knicks | 61% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 55% | 99 | 102 |
| 16 | Hawks | 45% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 21% | 89 | 80 |
| 9 | Celtics | 79% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 39% | 99 | 93 |
| 24 | Pistons | 61% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 28% | 92 | 96 |
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 69% | 95 | 93 |
| 22 | Bucks | 31% | 89 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 34% | 95 | 95 |
| 13 | Hornets | 66% | 100 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 27% | 94 | 78 |
| 12 | Rockets | 73% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 36% | 100 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 30% | 96 | 97 |
| 25 | Kings | 70% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 103 | 112 |
| 18 | Warriors | 40% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 55% | 97 | 104 |
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 38% | 87 | 85 |
| 16 | Hawks | 62% | 91 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 59% | 106 | 117 |
| 22 | Pacers | 41% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 9% | 84 | 79 |
| 7 | Bulls | 91% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 44% | 94 | 101 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 96 | 104 |
Monday, March 14, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 57% | 96 | 79 |
| 19 | Nets | 43% | 93 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 69% | 102 | 116 |
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 38% | 95 | 80 |
| 2 | Heat | 62% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 34% | 93 | 82 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 66% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 45% | 96 | 114 |
| 14 | Hornets | 55% | 98 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 30% | 102 | 93 |
| 12 | Rockets | 70% | 109 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 54% | 99 | 107 |
| 23 | Jazz | 46% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 49% | 102 | 119 |
| 28 | Kings | 51% | 103 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 30% | 94 | 84 |
| 1 | Lakers | 70% | 101 | 97 |
Sunday, March 13, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 78% | 105 | 95 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 22% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 47% | 96 | 95 |
| 26 | Raptors | 53% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 55% | 103 | 111 |
| 13 | Suns | 45% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 22% | 84 | 56 |
| 6 | Celtics | 78% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pacers | 26% | 98 | 106 |
| 10 | Knicks | 74% | 107 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 37% | 103 | 77 |
| 19 | Warriors | 63% | 108 | 100 |
Saturday, March 12, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 25% | 92 | 85 |
| 1 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 95 | 82 |
| 18 | Hawks | 40% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 53% | 99 | 122 |
| 29 | Wizards | 47% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 20% | 87 | 100 |
| 8 | Bulls | 80% | 98 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 49% | 91 | 74 |
| 20 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 21% | 90 | 103 |
| 16 | Hornets | 79% | 100 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 48% | 96 | 96 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 52% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 48% | 102 | 115 |
| 12 | Rockets | 52% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 24% | 96 | 101 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 76% | 105 | 131 |
Friday, March 11, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 96 | 92 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 26% | 88 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 49% | 96 | 98 |
| 24 | Nets | 51% | 97 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 52% | 95 | 86 |
| 12 | 76ers | 48% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 55% | 101 | 98 |
| 26 | Raptors | 45% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 32% | 88 | 76 |
| 9 | Bulls | 68% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 51% | 103 | 101 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 49% | 102 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 23% | 94 | 94 |
| 8 | Thunder | 77% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 14% | 91 | 103 |
| 4 | Spurs | 86% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 64% | 104 | 120 |
| 19 | Warriors | 36% | 99 | 123 |
Thursday, March 10, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 38% | 94 | 88 |
| 1 | Heat | 62% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Knicks | 28% | 97 | 109 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 72% | 105 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 42% | 103 | 116 |
| 10 | Suns | 58% | 105 | 97 |
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bulls | 75% | 94 | 101 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 25% | 85 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 46% | 99 | 90 |
| 26 | Nets | 54% | 101 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 49% | 97 | 110 |
| 14 | 76ers | 51% | 98 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 49% | 98 | 96 |
| 21 | Raptors | 51% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 19% | 88 | 108 |
| 4 | Celtics | 81% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 36% | 97 | 110 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 64% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 24% | 88 | 90 |
| 17 | Bucks | 76% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 46% | 102 | 75 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 54% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 65% | 96 | 92 |
| 23 | Hornets | 35% | 91 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 20% | 93 | 104 |
| 6 | Spurs | 80% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Magic | 73% | 103 | 106 |
| 27 | Kings | 27% | 95 | 102 |
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 59% | 96 | 101 |
| 15 | Hawks | 41% | 93 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 60% | 105 | 95 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 40% | 102 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 56% | 98 | 110 |
| 19 | Pacers | 44% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 59% | 94 | 95 |
| 29 | Wizards | 41% | 91 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 27% | 91 | 105 |
| 1 | Heat | 73% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 33% | 103 | 110 |
| 10 | Suns | 67% | 108 | 113 |
Monday, March 7, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 52% | 93 | 92 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 48% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 94 | 89 |
| 3 | Magic | 65% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 41% | 99 | 109 |
| 16 | Knicks | 59% | 103 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 28% | 87 | 77 | |
| 6 | Bulls | 72% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 46% | 96 | 101 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 54% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 66% | 105 | 108 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 34% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 65% | 105 | 123 |
| 27 | Kings | 35% | 100 | 101 |
Sunday, March 6, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 35% | 91 | 87 |
| 1 | Heat | 65% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 43% | 96 | 99 |
| 5 | Spurs | 57% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 40% | 98 | 92 |
| 15 | Hawks | 60% | 102 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 34% | 96 | 102 |
| 24 | Pistons | 66% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 32% | 98 | 117 |
| 12 | 76ers | 68% | 104 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 72% | 99 | 96 | |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 28% | 92 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 39% | 99 | 118 |
| 9 | Thunder | 61% | 103 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 32% | 93 | 104 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 68% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 67% | 93 | 89 |
| 21 | Bucks | 33% | 87 | 83 |
Saturday, March 5, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 42% | 99 | 136 |
| 23 | Nets | 58% | 101 | 137 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 44% | 100 | 96 |
| 29 | Wizards | 56% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 28% | 99 | 95 |
| 12 | Rockets | 72% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 31% | 95 | 102 |
| 18 | Jazz | 69% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 15% | 85 | 69 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 85% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 55% | 103 | 94 |
| 20 | Clippers | 45% | 101 | 100 |