FinalWin Prob.pScore
338%95
80
262%99
110
ORTG#PossPace
SAS logo SAS
86.09396.1
MIA logo MIA
117.09491.0

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventSASMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA80
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:19.0MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)80
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:20.0SASMISS Anderson 25' 3PT Jump Shot80
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:31.0MIAMiller Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)80
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:43.0SASSplitter 3' Reverse Layup (2 PTS)80
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:44.0SASSplitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)78
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:46.0SASMISS Neal 25' 3PT Jump Shot78
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 0:53.0MIAHoward 5' Turnaround Hook Shot (4 PTS)78
0%
110
100%
Q4 - 1:10SASAnderson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)78
0%
108
100%
Q4 - 1:10SASAnderson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)77
0%
108
100%
Q4 - 1:19MIAHoward 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Miller 6 AST)76
0%
108
100%
Q4 - 1:44SASNovak 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Neal 1 AST)76
0%
106
100%
Q4 - 1:50MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)73
0%
106
100%
Q4 - 2:01MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)73
0%
103
100%
Q4 - 2:02SASMISS Anderson 20' Jump Shot73
0%
103
100%
Q4 - 2:18MIAMagloire 3' Dunk (4 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)73
0%
103
100%
Q4 - 2:42MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)73
0%
101
100%
Q4 - 2:43SASMISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 273
0%
101
100%
Q4 - 2:43SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 273
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 2:48MIAJames 12' Fadeaway Jumper (21 PTS)73
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 3:03MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)73
0.1%
99
99.9%
Q4 - 3:04SASMISS Anderson 21' Jump Shot73
0.1%
99
99.9%
Q4 - 3:11MIABosh 14' Jump Shot (30 PTS) (Chalmers 5 AST)73
0.1%
99
99.9%
Q4 - 3:28MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)73
0.1%
97
99.9%
Q4 - 3:29SASMISS Hill 17' Jump Shot73
0.1%
97
99.9%
Q4 - 3:46MIABosh 12' Jump Shot (28 PTS) (James 8 AST)73
0.1%
97
99.9%
Q4 - 4:02MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)73
0.1%
95
99.9%
Q4 - 4:03SASJames BLOCK (2 BLK)73
0.1%
95
99.9%
Q4 - 4:09MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)73
0.1%
95
99.9%
Q4 - 4:09MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)73
0.1%
94
99.9%
Q4 - 4:20MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)73
0.1%
93
99.9%
Q4 - 4:21SASMagloire BLOCK (1 BLK)73
0.1%
93
99.9%
Q4 - 4:39MIABosh Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)73
0.1%
93
99.9%
Q4 - 4:52SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)73
0.1%
93
99.9%
Q4 - 4:52SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 272
0.1%
93
99.9%
Q4 - 4:56MIAWade 3' Running Dunk (29 PTS) (James 7 AST)72
0.1%
93
99.9%
Q4 - 4:59MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)72
0.1%
91
99.9%
Q4 - 5:00SASMISS Parker 9' Floating Jump Shot72
0.1%
91
99.9%
Q4 - 5:18SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)72
0.2%
91
99.8%
Q4 - 5:19MIAMISS Wade 16' Jump Shot72
0.1%
91
99.9%
Q4 - 5:40SASChalmers STEAL (3 STL)72
0.1%
91
99.9%
Q4 - 5:59MIAAnthony 3' Jump Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)72
0.2%
91
99.8%
Q4 - 6:18SASChalmers STEAL (2 STL)72
0.4%
89
99.6%
Q4 - 6:32MIAJames 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (19 PTS)72
0.5%
89
99.5%
Q4 - 6:56SASDuncan 19' Jump Shot (14 PTS)72
0.7%
87
99.3%
Q4 - 7:14SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)70
0.8%
87
99.2%
Q4 - 7:15MIAMISS James 10' Jump Shot70
0.7%
87
99.3%
Q4 - 7:31MIAHEAT Rebound70
0.6%
87
99.4%
Q4 - 7:32SASMISS Neal 26' 3PT Jump Shot70
0.6%
87
99.4%
Q4 - 7:38SASAnderson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)70
0.8%
87
99.2%
Q4 - 7:39MIAMISS James 22' Jump Shot70
0.7%
87
99.3%
Q4 - 7:59MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)70
0.6%
87
99.4%
Q4 - 8:00MIAMISS Miller 3PT Jump Shot70
0.7%
87
99.3%
Q4 - 8:18SASNeal Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)70
0.8%
87
99.2%
Q4 - 8:18SASNeal Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)69
0.8%
87
99.2%
Q4 - 8:37SASNovak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)68
0.6%
87
99.4%
Q4 - 8:38MIAMISS Bosh 2' Layup68
0.6%
87
99.4%
Q4 - 8:52SASNeal 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Hill 3 AST)68
0.5%
87
99.5%
Q4 - 9:13MIAJames 20' Jump Shot (17 PTS)65
0.4%
87
99.6%
Q4 - 9:37MIAWade REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)65
0.5%
85
99.5%
Q4 - 9:38MIAMISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot65
0.6%
85
99.4%
Q4 - 9:44MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)65
0.5%
85
99.5%
Q4 - 9:45SASMISS Neal 3' Driving Layup65
0.6%
85
99.4%
Q4 - 9:57MIAWade 2' Running Dunk (27 PTS)65
0.7%
85
99.3%
Q4 - 10:02SASWade STEAL (2 STL)65
1.1%
83
98.9%
Q4 - 10:14MIAJames 2' Running Dunk (15 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)65
1.4%
83
98.6%
Q4 - 10:18MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)65
1.7%
81
98.3%
Q4 - 10:19SASMISS Neal 4' Driving Layup65
1.8%
81
98.2%
Q4 - 10:22SASSpurs Rebound65
2.1%
81
97.9%
Q4 - 10:23SASMISS Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 165
1.7%
81
98.3%
Q4 - 10:34MIAWade 21' Jump Shot (25 PTS)63
1.3%
81
98.7%
Q4 - 10:46MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)63
1.7%
79
98.3%
Q4 - 10:47SASMISS Hill 3PT Jump Shot63
1.8%
79
98.2%
Q4 - 11:03MIAWade 17' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (James 6 AST)63
2.5%
79
97.5%
Q4 - 11:17MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)63
3.1%
77
96.9%
Q4 - 11:18SASMISS Neal 3PT Jump Shot63
3.3%
77
96.7%
Q4 - 11:24SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)63
3.8%
77
96.2%
Q4 - 11:25MIAMISS James 5' Running Hook Shot63
3.5%
77
96.5%
Q4 - 11:47MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)63
3.0%
77
97.0%
Q4 - 11:48SASMISS Neal 26' 3PT Jump Shot63
3.2%
77
96.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA63
3.7%
77
96.3%
Q3 - 0:03.0MIAHEAT Rebound63
3.6%
77
96.4%
Q3 - 0:04.0SASMISS Neal 18' Turnaround Jump Shot63
3.7%
77
96.3%
Q3 - 0:27.0SASBlair REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)63
4.2%
77
95.8%
Q3 - 0:28.0MIAMISS Wade 11' Turnaround Jump Shot63
4.0%
77
96.0%
Q3 - 0:39.0SASGinobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)63
3.5%
77
96.5%
Q3 - 0:39.0SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)62
3.4%
77
96.6%
Q3 - 0:47.0MIAWade 3' Finger Roll Layup (21 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)61
2.8%
77
97.2%
Q3 - 0:51.0SASMiller STEAL (1 STL)61
3.5%
75
96.5%
Q3 - 0:58.0MIAJames 19' Jump Shot (13 PTS)61
4.2%
75
95.8%
Q3 - 1:27SASNeal 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hill 2 AST)61
5.6%
73
94.4%
Q3 - 1:36MIAMagloire 3' Tip Shot (2 PTS)58
3.8%
73
96.2%
Q3 - 1:37MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)58
4.7%
71
95.3%
Q3 - 1:38MIAMISS James 14' Jump Shot58
5.3%
71
94.7%
Q3 - 1:53MIAHEAT Rebound58
4.7%
71
95.3%
Q3 - 1:54MIAMISS Wade 20' Jump Shot58
5.2%
71
94.8%
Q3 - 2:17SASParker 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Ginobili 5 AST)58
5.1%
71
94.9%
Q3 - 2:34MIAWade 2' Layup (19 PTS) (James 5 AST)55
3.5%
71
96.5%
Q3 - 2:58MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)55
4.2%
69
95.8%
Q3 - 2:59SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 255
4.3%
69
95.7%
Q3 - 2:59SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)55
4.8%
69
95.2%
Q3 - 3:01SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)54
4.7%
69
95.3%
Q3 - 3:02MIAMISS Howard 18' Jump Shot54
4.5%
69
95.5%
Q3 - 3:17SASParker 8' Floating Jump Shot (15 PTS)54
3.9%
69
96.1%
Q3 - 3:26SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)52
3.3%
69
96.7%
Q3 - 3:27MIAMISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot52
3.1%
69
96.9%
Q3 - 3:53SASParker 3' Driving Reverse Layup (13 PTS)52
2.8%
69
97.2%
Q3 - 4:09MIABosh 20' Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)50
2.6%
69
97.4%
Q3 - 4:14MIAWade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)50
3.0%
67
97.0%
Q3 - 4:15MIAMISS James 3' Driving Layup50
3.4%
67
96.6%
Q3 - 4:28SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)50
3.0%
67
97.0%
Q3 - 4:28SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 249
2.9%
67
97.1%
Q3 - 4:43MIABosh Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)49
3.0%
67
97.0%
Q3 - 4:52SASSpurs Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)49
2.5%
67
97.5%
Q3 - 5:17MIAChalmers Foul Turnover (P2.T8)49
3.3%
67
96.7%
Q3 - 5:32SASSpurs Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)49
2.8%
67
97.2%
Q3 - 5:32SASSpurs Rebound49
3.3%
67
96.7%
Q3 - 5:33SASMISS Duncan 4' Jump Shot49
2.9%
67
97.1%
Q3 - 5:40SASSpurs Rebound49
3.3%
67
96.7%
Q3 - 5:41SASJames BLOCK (1 BLK)49
2.9%
67
97.1%
Q3 - 5:56MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)49
3.3%
67
96.7%
Q3 - 5:56MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)49
3.4%
66
96.6%
Q3 - 5:56MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)49
3.8%
65
96.2%
Q3 - 5:57SASMISS Duncan 13' Turnaround Hook Shot49
4.1%
65
95.9%
Q3 - 6:20MIABosh 19' Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)49
5.0%
65
95.0%
Q3 - 6:34SASParker Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)49
5.8%
63
94.2%
Q3 - 6:34SASParker 3' Driving Layup (9 PTS)48
5.0%
63
95.0%
Q3 - 6:51MIAChalmers 19' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (James 4 AST)46
4.3%
63
95.7%
Q3 - 7:07MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)46
5.4%
61
94.6%
Q3 - 7:08SASMISS Parker 8' Hook Shot46
5.7%
61
94.3%
Q3 - 7:22MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)46
6.3%
61
93.7%
Q3 - 7:22MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)46
6.5%
60
93.5%
Q3 - 7:35MIAChalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)46
7.2%
59
92.8%
Q3 - 7:36SASWade BLOCK (2 BLK)46
7.6%
59
92.4%
Q3 - 7:45SASJefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)46
8.4%
59
91.6%
Q3 - 7:46MIAMISS Bosh 16' Jump Shot46
8.0%
59
92.0%
Q3 - 8:01SASChalmers STEAL (1 STL)46
7.5%
59
92.5%
Q3 - 8:21SASSpurs Rebound46
8.7%
59
91.3%
Q3 - 8:22MIAMISS Bosh 14' Jump Shot46
8.3%
59
91.7%
Q3 - 8:42SASBosh STEAL (2 STL)46
7.5%
59
92.5%
Q3 - 8:46SASJefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)46
8.7%
59
91.3%
Q3 - 8:47MIAMISS Bosh 15' Jump Shot46
8.3%
59
91.7%
Q3 - 9:14SASGinobili 3' Layup (7 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)46
7.8%
59
92.2%
Q3 - 9:30MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)44
6.8%
59
93.2%
Q3 - 9:55SASParker 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Jefferson 1 AST)44
8.9%
56
91.1%
Q3 - 10:15MIAChalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (James 3 AST)41
7.2%
56
92.8%
Q3 - 10:35SASMcDyess 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)41
9.3%
53
90.7%
Q3 - 10:45SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)39
8.2%
53
91.8%
Q3 - 10:46MIAMISS Wade 18' Jump Shot39
7.9%
53
92.1%
Q3 - 10:57MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)39
7.1%
53
92.9%
Q3 - 10:58SASMISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot39
7.5%
53
92.5%
Q3 - 11:10MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)39
8.7%
53
91.3%
Q3 - 11:10MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)39
8.8%
52
91.2%
Q3 - 11:25MIADampier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)39
9.7%
51
90.3%
Q3 - 11:26SASMISS McDyess 16' Jump Shot39
10.1%
51
89.9%
Q3 - 11:46MIAWade 15' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (James 2 AST)39
11.1%
51
88.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA39
12.4%
49
87.6%
Q2 - 0:01.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)39
13.3%
49
86.7%
Q2 - 0:01.0SASMISS Jefferson 26' 3PT Jump Shot39
13.6%
49
86.4%
Q2 - 0:07.0SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)39
14.5%
49
85.5%
Q2 - 0:08.0MIAMISS James 15' Jump Shot39
14.1%
49
85.9%
Q2 - 0:31.0MIAChalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)39
13.2%
49
86.8%
Q2 - 0:33.0SASMISS Duncan 15' Turnaround Jump Shot39
13.6%
49
86.4%
Q2 - 0:48.0MIABosh 10' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Magloire 1 AST)39
14.4%
49
85.6%
Q2 - 1:09SASDuncan 10' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)39
16.9%
47
83.1%
Q2 - 1:21SASJefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)37
14.7%
47
85.3%
Q2 - 1:22MIAMISS Wade 16' Jump Shot37
14.3%
47
85.7%
Q2 - 1:37SASGinobili Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)37
13.6%
47
86.4%
Q2 - 1:48MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)34
10.4%
47
89.6%
Q2 - 1:48MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)34
10.7%
46
89.3%
Q2 - 1:52MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)34
12.1%
45
87.9%
Q2 - 1:53MIAMISS Magloire 7' Hook Shot34
12.8%
45
87.2%
Q2 - 2:16MIAMagloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)34
12.2%
45
87.8%
Q2 - 2:17SASMISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 234
12.4%
45
87.6%
Q2 - 2:17SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)34
13.2%
45
86.8%
Q2 - 2:37MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)33
12.2%
45
87.8%
Q2 - 2:54SASJefferson 5' Running Hook Shot (5 PTS)33
15.2%
42
84.8%
Q2 - 3:25MIABibby Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)31
14.1%
42
85.9%
Q2 - 3:30SASBibby STEAL (1 STL)31
12.4%
42
87.6%
Q2 - 3:52MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)31
14.1%
42
85.9%
Q2 - 3:52MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)31
14.4%
41
85.6%
Q2 - 3:54MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
15.3%
40
84.7%
Q2 - 3:55SASWade BLOCK (1 BLK)31
15.9%
40
84.1%
Q2 - 4:03SASJefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
17.4%
40
82.6%
Q2 - 4:04MIAMISS Wade 18' Jump Shot31
16.9%
40
83.1%
Q2 - 4:23SASMcDyess 2' Jump Shot (8 PTS)31
15.6%
40
84.4%
Q2 - 4:24SASMcDyess REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)29
14.2%
40
85.8%
Q2 - 4:25SASMISS Parker 9' Jump Shot29
13.1%
40
86.9%
Q2 - 4:44SASMcDyess REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)29
14.2%
40
85.8%
Q2 - 4:45SASMISS Hill 24' 3PT Jump Shot29
13.1%
40
86.9%
Q2 - 4:58SASJefferson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)29
14.2%
40
85.8%
Q2 - 4:59MIAMISS Anthony 5' Jump Shot29
13.7%
40
86.3%
Q2 - 5:18SASDuncan 3' Tip Shot (8 PTS)29
13.1%
40
86.9%
Q2 - 5:19SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)27
11.8%
40
88.2%
Q2 - 5:20SASMISS Jefferson 18' Jump Shot27
11.0%
40
89.0%
Q2 - 5:39MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)27
11.8%
40
88.2%
Q2 - 5:39MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)27
12.1%
39
87.9%
Q2 - 5:45MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
13.1%
38
86.9%
Q2 - 5:46SASMISS Neal 8' Jump Shot27
13.5%
38
86.5%
Q2 - 6:10MIAWade 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST)27
15.1%
38
84.9%
Q2 - 6:29SASHill 8' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)27
16.4%
36
83.6%
Q2 - 6:36MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T6)25
15.1%
36
84.9%
Q2 - 6:38MIABibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
13.5%
36
86.5%
Q2 - 6:39SASMISS McDyess 16' Jump Shot25
13.9%
36
86.1%
Q2 - 6:55MIABosh 3' Tip Shot (14 PTS)25
15.1%
36
84.9%
Q2 - 6:56MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)25
16.4%
34
83.6%
Q2 - 6:57MIAMISS Wade 11' Jump Shot25
17.6%
34
82.4%
Q2 - 7:02MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)25
16.7%
34
83.3%
Q2 - 7:03SASMISS Neal 7' Running Jump Shot25
17.2%
34
82.8%
Q2 - 7:17SASNeal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)25
18.4%
34
81.6%
Q2 - 7:18MIAMISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot25
17.9%
34
82.1%
Q2 - 7:21MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)25
16.7%
34
83.3%
Q2 - 7:22MIAMISS Wade 14' Fadeaway Jumper25
17.9%
34
82.1%
Q2 - 7:35SASGinobili Foul Turnover (P2.T4)25
16.7%
34
83.3%
Q2 - 7:51MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)25
18.4%
34
81.6%
Q2 - 7:51MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)25
18.8%
33
81.2%
Q2 - 7:59SASBosh STEAL (1 STL)25
20.0%
32
80.0%
Q2 - 8:12MIAWade Offensive Goaltending Turnover (P2.T5)25
22.3%
32
77.7%
Q2 - 8:22MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)25
20.4%
32
79.6%
Q2 - 8:23SASMISS Hill 24' 3PT Jump Shot25
21.0%
32
79.0%
Q2 - 8:46MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)25
22.2%
32
77.8%
Q2 - 8:46MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)25
22.6%
31
77.4%
Q2 - 8:59SASGinobili 6' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)25
24.1%
30
75.9%
Q2 - 9:18MIABosh 2' Layup (10 PTS) (James 1 AST)23
22.4%
30
77.6%
Q2 - 9:30MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)23
24.2%
28
75.8%
Q2 - 9:31SASMISS Ginobili 20' Fadeaway Jumper23
24.9%
28
75.1%
Q2 - 9:40SASBonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
26.3%
28
73.7%
Q2 - 9:41MIAMISS Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot23
25.7%
28
74.3%
Q2 - 9:48MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
24.2%
28
75.8%
Q2 - 9:49SASMISS Blair 2' Layup23
24.9%
28
75.1%
Q2 - 10:03SASBlair REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)23
26.4%
28
73.6%
Q2 - 10:04MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot23
25.8%
28
74.2%
Q2 - 10:15MIABibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
24.3%
28
75.7%
Q2 - 10:16SASMISS Neal 25' 3PT Jump Shot23
24.9%
28
75.1%
Q2 - 10:33MIAAnthony 3' Dunk (2 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)23
26.4%
28
73.6%
Q2 - 10:51SASBlair 2' Tip Shot (4 PTS)23
28.3%
26
71.7%
Q2 - 10:52SASBlair REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)21
26.4%
26
73.6%
Q2 - 10:53SASMISS Bonner 12' Floating Jump Shot21
24.9%
26
75.1%
Q2 - 11:12MIABosh 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS)21
26.5%
26
73.5%
Q2 - 11:37SASBlair 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Hill 1 AST)21
28.4%
24
71.6%
Q2 - 11:48MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)19
26.5%
24
73.5%
Q2 - 11:48MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)19
26.8%
23
73.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA19
28.4%
22
71.6%
Q1 - 0:01.0MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)19
28.6%
22
71.4%
Q1 - 0:03.0SASMISS Blair 2' Hook Shot19
29.1%
22
70.9%
Q1 - 0:25.0SASBlair REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)19
30.3%
22
69.7%
Q1 - 0:28.0MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot19
29.8%
22
70.2%
Q1 - 0:45.0SASJefferson 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)19
28.6%
22
71.4%
Q1 - 1:02MIAMiller 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)16
24.7%
22
75.3%
Q1 - 1:19MIAHEAT Rebound16
26.9%
20
73.1%
Q1 - 1:20SASMISS Jefferson 19' Jump Shot16
27.4%
20
72.6%
Q1 - 1:46SASBlair REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
28.3%
20
71.7%
Q1 - 1:47MIAMISS James 4' Jump Shot16
27.9%
20
72.1%
Q1 - 1:59MIAHEAT Rebound16
26.9%
20
73.1%
Q1 - 2:00SASMISS Parker 18' Jump Shot16
27.3%
20
72.7%
Q1 - 2:22MIAJames 12' Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS)16
28.7%
20
71.3%
Q1 - 2:44MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)16
30.8%
18
69.2%
Q1 - 2:45SASMISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot16
31.4%
18
68.6%
Q1 - 3:05MIAChalmers 3' Layup (6 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)16
32.7%
18
67.3%
Q1 - 3:07SASWade STEAL (1 STL)16
34.7%
16
65.3%
Q1 - 3:09MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)16
36.9%
16
63.1%
Q1 - 3:26MIAHEAT Rebound16
34.7%
16
65.3%
Q1 - 3:27SASMISS Jefferson 25' 3PT Jump Shot16
35.4%
16
64.6%
Q1 - 3:47MIAWade 4' Hook Shot (4 PTS)16
36.9%
16
63.1%
Q1 - 3:58SASJefferson Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)16
39.0%
14
61.0%
Q1 - 4:22MIAChalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS)16
40.7%
14
59.3%
Q1 - 4:39SASMcDyess 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)16
44.9%
11
55.1%
Q1 - 4:53MIAJames 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)14
42.9%
11
57.1%
Q1 - 5:06SASParker 3' Running Layup (4 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)14
44.3%
9
55.7%
Q1 - 5:10SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)12
42.5%
9
57.5%
Q1 - 5:11MIAMISS James 20' Jump Shot12
41.8%
9
58.2%
Q1 - 5:31MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)12
40.2%
9
59.8%
Q1 - 5:32SASMISS Parker 10' Jump Bank Shot12
40.9%
9
59.1%
Q1 - 5:58MIAWade 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS)12
42.5%
9
57.5%
Q1 - 6:09MIADampier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)12
44.0%
7
56.0%
Q1 - 6:10SASMISS Ginobili 2' Driving Layup12
44.6%
7
55.4%
Q1 - 6:16SASMcDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)12
46.1%
7
53.9%
Q1 - 6:17MIAMISS Wade 2' Driving Layup12
45.5%
7
54.5%
Q1 - 6:33SASDuncan 5' Hook Shot (6 PTS) (McDyess 1 AST)12
44.0%
7
56.0%
Q1 - 6:51SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)10
42.0%
7
58.0%
Q1 - 6:52MIAMISS Chalmers Free Throw 2 of 210
41.8%
7
58.2%
Q1 - 6:52MIAChalmers Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)10
40.3%
7
59.7%
Q1 - 7:05SASDuncan 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)10
41.4%
6
58.6%
Q1 - 7:24MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)8
39.7%
6
60.3%
Q1 - 7:29MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)8
37.6%
6
62.4%
Q1 - 7:30SASMISS Ginobili 3PT Jump Shot8
38.2%
6
61.8%
Q1 - 7:32SASGinobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)8
39.7%
6
60.3%
Q1 - 7:33SASMISS Duncan 4' Dunk8
38.2%
6
61.8%
Q1 - 7:49SASMcDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)8
39.7%
6
60.3%
Q1 - 7:50MIAMISS James 3' Layup8
39.1%
6
60.9%
Q1 - 7:57MIAHEAT Rebound8
37.6%
6
62.4%
Q1 - 7:57MIAMISS Bosh 14' Jump Shot8
39.1%
6
60.9%
Q1 - 8:08MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)8
37.5%
6
62.5%
Q1 - 8:09SASMISS Parker 16' Jump Shot8
38.1%
6
61.9%
Q1 - 8:27MIABosh 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)8
39.4%
6
60.6%
Q1 - 8:43SASMcDyess 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)8
41.3%
4
58.7%
Q1 - 9:00MIABosh 3' Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)6
39.4%
4
60.6%
Q1 - 9:08MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
41.1%
2
58.9%
Q1 - 9:09SASMISS Parker 8' Jump Shot6
41.7%
2
58.3%
Q1 - 9:20MIAWade Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)6
43.0%
2
57.0%
Q1 - 9:37SASDuncan 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)6
41.1%
2
58.9%
Q1 - 9:45SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)4
39.3%
2
60.7%
Q1 - 9:46SASMISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot4
38.0%
2
62.0%
Q1 - 10:02SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
39.0%
2
61.0%
Q1 - 10:03MIAMISS Wade 18' Jump Shot4
38.4%
2
61.6%
Q1 - 10:09MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
37.0%
2
63.0%
Q1 - 10:10SASMISS Jefferson 3PT Jump Shot4
37.6%
2
62.4%
Q1 - 10:23MIAChalmers Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)4
39.0%
2
61.0%
Q1 - 10:36SASParker 6' Jump Shot (2 PTS)4
37.1%
2
62.9%
Q1 - 10:42SASMcDyess REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
35.7%
2
64.3%
Q1 - 10:43MIAMISS Bosh 17' Jump Shot2
35.1%
2
64.9%
Q1 - 10:59MIADampier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)2
33.8%
2
66.2%
Q1 - 11:00SASMISS McDyess 13' Jump Shot2
34.4%
2
65.6%
Q1 - 11:18MIADampier 2' Layup (2 PTS)2
35.1%
2
64.9%
Q1 - 11:20MIADampier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)2
36.8%
0
63.2%
Q1 - 11:21MIAMISS Wade 11' Jump Shot2
37.8%
0
62.2%
Q1 - 11:44SASMcDyess 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)2
36.8%
0
63.2%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Dampier vs. Duncan: Tip to Parker0
35.2%
0
64.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
0.87 43.5%
MIA
1.18 59.1%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
SAS
13
25
52%
MIA
18
25
72%
Midrange
SAS
12
34
35%
MIA
21
44
48%
3PT | Effective 3PT
SAS
6
9.0
22
27%
41%
MIA
3
4.5
9
33%
50%
Free Throws
SAS
12
19
63%
MIA
23
24
96%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. Parker1847%9.0 / 19
T. Duncan1454%7.0 / 13
M. Ginobili1255%6.0 / 11
A. McDyess1063%5.0 / 8
G. Neal829%4.0 / 14
R. Jefferson536%2.5 / 7
D. Blair450%2.0 / 4
S. Novak3150%1.5 / 1
G. Hill217%1.0 / 6
J. Anderson225%1.0 / 4
T. Splitter2100%1.0 / 1
M. Bonner0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
C. Bosh3071%15.0 / 21
D. Wade2956%14.5 / 26
L. James2150%10.5 / 21
M. Chalmers11110%5.5 / 5
J. Magloire467%2.0 / 3
J. Anthony467%2.0 / 3
J. Howard467%2.0 / 3
J. Jones3150%1.5 / 1
E. Dampier2100%1.0 / 1
M. Miller233%1.0 / 3
M. Bibby0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS
82
+10
-11
92
MIA
83
+10
-11
93
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
0.87 43.5%
MIA
1.18 59.1%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
111.5
111.4
SAS 86.0 +31.0
MIA 117.0
Pace
92.7
91.3
SAS 96.1 +5.1
MIA 91.0
Avg. Poss. Time
15.7
16.2
SAS 15.0 +0.8
MIA 15.8
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
52.7%
52.4%
SAS 42.0%
MIA 55.8% +13.8%
TO %
13.8%
14.4%
SAS 12.7%
MIA 11.0% +1.7%
ORB %
25.0%
25.2%
SAS 15.2%
MIA 23.5% +8.3%
FTrt
29.9
36.3
SAS 23.5
MIA 30.8 +7.3
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
58.3%
54.1%
SAS 54.8%
MIA 59.5% +4.7%
STL %
7.9%
7.3%
SAS 5.4%
MIA 9.6% +4.2%
BLK %
6.7%
8.5%
SAS 2.9%
MIA 8.5% +5.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.24 and 2.24.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
55.3%
55.7%
SAS 43.5%
MIA 59.1% +15.6%
Rim FG%
60.3%
64.7%
SAS 52.0%
MIA 72.0% +20.0%
Mid FG%
41.6%
42.2%
SAS 35.3%
MIA 47.7% +12.4%
3P %
39.7%
37.0%
SAS 27.3%
MIA 33.3% +6.0%
FT %
76.7%
76.9%
SAS 63.2%
MIA 95.8% +32.6%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
34.3%
31.6%
SAS 30.9%
MIA 32.1% +1.2%
Mid Att. %
39.7%
44.9%
SAS 42.0% +14.4%
MIA 56.4%
3P Att. %
26.1%
23.5%
SAS 27.2% +15.6%
MIA 11.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.36 and 2.36.
Game TotalsSASMIA
Possessions9394
Possession Minutes23.224.8
Points80110
Rebounds3347
Assists1725
Steals59
Blocks25
Turnovers (Team)11 (2)11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)7 (3)8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)26 (1)39 (5)
Field Goals31-8142-78
At-the-Rim FG13-2518-25
Midrange FG12-3421-44
2-Point FG25-5939-69
3-Point FG6-223-9
Free Throws12-1923-24
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
G · 6'2" 185 · 29
32.6
18
47%
1
5
0
0
1
3
0
1
2-5
40%
5-14
36%
2-2
100%
G · 6'6" 205 · 34
30.8
12
55%
6
5
1
1
3
3
1
5
4-6
67%
4-6
67%
0-3
0%
F · 6'11" 250 · 35
30.5
14
54%
6
1
1
0
1
4
2
4
2-4
50%
6-11
55%
0-0
-
F · 6'7" 233 · 31
28.6
5
36%
5
1
0
0
2
2
0
5
0-0
-
1-3
33%
1-4
25%
C · 6'9" 245 · 37
28.3
10
63%
5
1
1
1
1
3
2
3
0-0
-
5-8
63%
0-0
-
G · 6'3" 188 · 25
29.8
2
17%
0
3
1
0
1
1
0
0
0-0
-
1-3
33%
0-3
0%
G · 6'4" 210 · 26
19.3
8
29%
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
2-2
100%
0-6
0%
2-7
29%
C-F · 6'7" 270 · 22
16.4
4
50%
5
0
1
0
0
2
1
4
0-0
-
2-4
50%
0-0
-
C-F · 6'10" 235 · 31
7.5
0
0%
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-1
0%
F · 6'10" 225 · 28
7.2
3
150%
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
1-1
100%
G-F · 6'6" 213 · 22
5.1
2
25%
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2-2
100%
0-2
0%
0-1
0%
C-F · 6'11" 245 · 26
3.8
2
100%
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
#11 · G · 6'2" 175 · 27
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
80
44%
33
17
5
2
11
0
7
26
12-19
63%
25-59
42%
6-22
27%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.