Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, February 14, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 64% | 96 | 89 |
 | 23 | Bobcats | 36% | 92 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 25 | Nets | 29% | 93 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Pistons | 39% | 93 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Bucks | 68% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Timberwolves | 37% | 98 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, February 13, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Heat | 47% | 92 | 82 |
 | 3 | Celtics | 53% | 93 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 47% | 98 | 75 |
 | 6 | Magic | 53% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 96 | 105 |
| 24 | Pistons | 40% | 93 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 53% | 104 | 93 |
 | 27 | Raptors | 47% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 53% | 101 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Thunder | 49% | 103 | 94 |
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Saturday, February 12, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 29% | 90 | 88 |
| 15 | Hawks | 71% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Knicks | 54% | 101 | 105 |
| 25 | Nets | 46% | 100 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 71% | 101 | 118 |
| 28 | Wizards | 29% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Timberwolves | 37% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Bulls | 53% | 91 | 97 |
| 14 | Hornets | 47% | 89 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Mavericks | 49% | 102 | 106 |
| 10 | Rockets | 51% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 18 | Bucks | 59% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 64% | 101 | 99 |
| 27 | Kings | 36% | 96 | 97 |
Friday, February 11, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 38% | 91 | 94 | |
| 23 | Bobcats | 62% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 26% | 98 | 105 |
| 18 | Pacers | 74% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 30% | 92 | 99 | |
| 6 | Magic | 70% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 57% | 99 | 71 |
| 14 | 76ers | 43% | 97 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 104 | 102 |
| 29 | Raptors | 32% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 62% | 104 | 119 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 38% | 100 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 76% | 100 | 106 |
| 24 | Pistons | 24% | 91 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 53% | 104 | 113 |
| 13 | Knicks | 47% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 44% | 88 | 86 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 56% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 40% | 100 | 95 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 15 | Jazz | 60% | 103 | 83 |
Thursday, February 10, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 44% | 93 | 92 |
| 3 | Celtics | 56% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 26% | 102 | 88 |
| 8 | Suns | 74% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 42% | 101 | 120 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 58% | 104 | 121 |
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 54% | 99 | 103 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 46% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 93 | 103 |
| 16 | Pacers | 62% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 60% | 95 | 101 | |
| 28 | Nets | 40% | 91 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 53% | 99 | 99 |
| 15 | 76ers | 47% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 73% | 105 | 111 |
| 26 | Raptors | 27% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 54% | 93 | 85 |
| 25 | Wizards | 46% | 92 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 27% | 101 | 116 |
| 13 | Knicks | 73% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 53% | 96 | 91 |
| 18 | Jazz | 47% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 72% | 100 | 102 |
| 27 | Kings | 28% | 93 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 52% | 107 | 114 |
| 20 | Warriors | 48% | 106 | 116 |
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 42% | 96 | 117 |
| 14 | Hawks | 58% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 22% | 96 | 85 |
| 4 | Magic | 78% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 69% | 99 | 100 |
| 24 | Pistons | 31% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 19% | 91 | 112 |
| 1 | Heat | 81% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 30% | 93 | 74 |
| 17 | Bucks | 70% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 31% | 94 | 105 |
| 11 | Thunder | 69% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 21% | 100 | 112 |
| 10 | Rockets | 79% | 111 | 108 |
Monday, February 7, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 65% | 93 | 89 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 35% | 88 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 61% | 98 | 93 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 39% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 26% | 94 | 104 |
| 20 | Hornets | 74% | 102 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 11% | 90 | 96 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 89% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 42% | 105 | 108 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 58% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bulls | 51% | 93 | 103 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 92 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 107 |
| 28 | Kings | 41% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 49% | 106 | 104 |
| 16 | Warriors | 51% | 107 | 92 |
Sunday, February 6, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 17% | 92 | 79 |
| 1 | Heat | 83% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 59% | 99 | 105 |
| 27 | Nets | 41% | 95 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 39% | 101 | 103 |
| 12 | Knicks | 61% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 39% | 93 | 80 |
| 3 | Celtics | 61% | 97 | 91 |
Saturday, February 5, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 62% | 96 | 101 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 57% | 98 | 99 |
| 27 | Wizards | 43% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 72% | 100 | 111 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 28% | 92 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 60% | 96 | 101 |
| 17 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 33% | 97 | 93 |
| 10 | Rockets | 67% | 103 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 28% | 88 | 89 |
| 20 | Bucks | 72% | 96 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 67% | 109 | 113 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 33% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Thunder | 47% | 98 | 121 |
| 18 | Jazz | 53% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 56% | 100 | 90 |
| 21 | Warriors | 44% | 98 | 101 |
Friday, February 4, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 69% | 97 | 109 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 31% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 96 | 87 |
| 16 | Pacers | 53% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Knicks | 44% | 101 | 98 |
| 15 | 76ers | 56% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 44% | 104 | 100 |
| 28 | Raptors | 56% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 67% | 101 | 110 |
| 25 | Wizards | 33% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 32% | 96 | 100 |
| 11 | Hawks | 68% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 42% | 94 | 82 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 58% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 38% | 90 | 101 |
| 4 | Celtics | 62% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 19% | 91 | 105 |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 81% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Thunder | 40% | 101 | 111 |
| 9 | Suns | 60% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 69% | 100 | 113 |
| 26 | Kings | 31% | 93 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 27% | 98 | 113 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 73% | 106 | 106 |
Thursday, February 3, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 47% | 98 | 104 |
| 5 | Magic | 53% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 35% | 96 | 94 |
| 19 | Warriors | 65% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 39% | 96 | 89 |
| 2 | Lakers | 61% | 100 | 88 |
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 24% | 96 | 87 |
| 11 | Hawks | 76% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 75% | 103 | 117 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 25% | 94 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 58% | 97 | 106 |
| 27 | Nets | 42% | 94 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 49% | 94 | 97 |
| 24 | Pistons | 51% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 49% | 101 | 113 |
| 10 | Knicks | 51% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 61% | 102 | 102 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 39% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 38% | 94 | 93 | |
| 13 | Thunder | 62% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 97 | 90 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 70% | 104 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 33% | 96 | 77 |
| 9 | Suns | 67% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 44% | 99 | 97 |
| 20 | Jazz | 56% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 59% | 97 | 106 |
| 21 | Clippers | 41% | 94 | 88 |
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 19% | 88 | 89 |
| 10 | Hornets | 81% | 99 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 54% | 96 | 86 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 72% | 97 | 95 |
| 25 | Kings | 28% | 89 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 29% | 98 | 106 |
| 2 | Lakers | 71% | 106 | 114 |