Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 30, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Heat | 51% | 100 | 128 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Timberwolves | 58% | 92 | 87 |
 | 24 | Magic | 42% | 89 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Raptors | 27% | 89 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Nets | 81% | 101 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Bobcats | 30% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Knicks | 31% | 94 | 108 |
 | 21 | Bucks | 69% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Mavericks | 74% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Celtics | 37% | 97 | 112 |
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Thursday, December 29, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 29% | 99 | 112 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 13% | 82 | 84 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Heat | 33% | 90 | 101 |
 | 1 | Pistons | 67% | 96 | 106 |
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 39% | 97 | 109 |
| 17 | Warriors | 61% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 38% | 97 | 102 |
| 26 | Raptors | 62% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 56% | 103 | 104 |
| 16 | Wizards | 44% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 38% | 90 | 95 |
| 23 | Magic | 62% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Bulls | 54% | 95 | 80 |
| 24 | Bobcats | 46% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 25 | Hornets | 63% | 89 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 30% | 96 | 95 | |
| 9 | Timberwolves | 70% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 30 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 91 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 45% | 89 | 100 |
 | 10 | Lakers | 55% | 91 | 99 |
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 42% | 97 | 108 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 58% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 48% | 97 | 93 |
| 29 | Hawks | 52% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | Nets | 60% | 97 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 21% | 93 | 98 |
| 5 | Heat | 79% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 13% | 86 | 106 |
| 1 | Pistons | 87% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 21% | 82 | 86 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kings | 32% | 95 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 22 | Jazz | 36% | 83 | 82 |
| 23 | Rockets | 64% | 87 | 74 |
Monday, December 26, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 64% | 96 | 109 | |
| 28 | Knicks | 36% | 91 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 39% | 97 | 91 |
| 16 | Wizards | 61% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 51% | 94 | 93 |
| 25 | Magic | 49% | 93 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 27% | 93 | 91 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 73% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 47% | 96 | 103 |
| 9 | Timberwolves | 53% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 32% | 87 | 80 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 68% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 58% | 87 | 102 |
| 22 | Jazz | 42% | 84 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 89 | 105 |
| 17 | Kings | 78% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 37% | 98 | 111 |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 63% | 102 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 48% | 99 | 118 |
| 18 | Warriors | 52% | 100 | 112 |
Sunday, December 25, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 33% | 93 | 92 |
| 4 | Heat | 67% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 34% | 86 | 70 |
| 1 | Pistons | 66% | 91 | 85 |
Friday, December 23, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 18% | 81 | 91 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 82% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 49% | 99 | 101 |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 51% | 100 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 28% | 98 | 112 |
| 3 | Suns | 72% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 34% | 88 | 86 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 66% | 93 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 18% | 88 | 90 |
| 5 | Spurs | 82% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 33% | 91 | 94 | |
| 19 | Bucks | 67% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 27% | 86 | 77 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 73% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 40% | 91 | 89 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 60% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 22% | 90 | 85 |
| 1 | Pistons | 78% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 40% | 94 | 95 | |
| 7 | Heat | 60% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clippers | 53% | 95 | 97 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 47% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 40% | 90 | 90 |
| 26 | Knicks | 60% | 93 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 54% | 92 | 104 |
| 24 | Magic | 46% | 91 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 76ers | 66% | 100 | 108 |
| 28 | Hawks | 34% | 95 | 111 |
Thursday, December 22, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 49% | 98 | 105 |
| 7 | Kings | 51% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 51% | 98 | 108 |
| 20 | Bulls | 49% | 97 | 100 |
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 24% | 87 | 94 |
| 17 | Rockets | 76% | 96 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 37% | 97 | 100 |
| 12 | 76ers | 63% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 52% | 91 | 96 | |
| 24 | Magic | 48% | 90 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 33% | 87 | 75 |
| 11 | Pacers | 67% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 27% | 87 | 89 |
| 22 | Celtics | 73% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 64% | 94 | 109 |
| 26 | Knicks | 36% | 90 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 11% | 78 | 79 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 89% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 26% | 86 | 69 | |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 74% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 40% | 97 | 116 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 60% | 100 | 110 |
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 60% | 96 | 107 |
| 20 | Bucks | 40% | 92 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 19% | 89 | 85 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 81% | 100 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 36% | 91 | 85 |
| 10 | Nets | 64% | 95 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 17% | 91 | 92 |
| 6 | Heat | 83% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 11% | 78 | 89 |
| 1 | Pistons | 89% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bobcats | 30% | 92 | 105 |
| 21 | Bulls | 70% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SuperSonics | 22% | 99 | 83 | |
| 3 | Suns | 78% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 57% | 94 | 90 |
| 15 | Lakers | 43% | 92 | 112 |
Monday, December 19, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 35% | 101 | 101 |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 65% | 106 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 47% | 87 | 106 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 53% | 88 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kings | 66% | 103 | 103 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 34% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 42% | 95 | 98 |
| 22 | Celtics | 58% | 98 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 28% | 91 | 92 |
| 23 | Magic | 72% | 98 | 90 |
Sunday, December 18, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 68% | 96 | 92 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 58% | 101 | 107 |
| 25 | Raptors | 42% | 99 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 63% | 98 | 107 |
| 28 | Hawks | 37% | 93 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 39% | 95 | 90 |
| 9 | Nets | 61% | 98 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 29% | 87 | 95 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 71% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 40% | 89 | 76 |
| 17 | Lakers | 60% | 92 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 64% | 92 | 76 |
| 24 | Hornets | 36% | 88 | 89 | |
Saturday, December 17, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 48% | 90 | 81 |
| 19 | Clippers | 52% | 91 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 30% | 93 | 89 |
| 3 | Spurs | 70% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 41% | 91 | 88 |
| 22 | Bucks | 59% | 94 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 40% | 93 | 86 |
| 23 | Bulls | 60% | 96 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 42% | 92 | 87 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 58% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 35% | 95 | 107 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 65% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 62% | 94 | 103 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 38% | 91 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 60% | 92 | 102 |
| 28 | Knicks | 40% | 89 | 96 |