Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, December 19, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Raptors | 28% | 91 | 92 |
 | 23 | Magic | 72% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Celtics | 58% | 98 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Bobcats | 34% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Pistons | 47% | 87 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 13 | SuperSonics | 65% | 106 | 111 | |
Sunday, December 18, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 25 | Raptors | 42% | 99 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 39% | 95 | 90 |
| 9 | Nets | 61% | 98 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Timberwolves | 29% | 87 | 95 |
 | 1 | Mavericks | 71% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 68% | 96 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Lakers | 60% | 92 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Hornets | 36% | 88 | 89 | |
Saturday, December 17, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 48% | 90 | 81 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Knicks | 40% | 89 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 62% | 94 | 103 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 38% | 91 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Heat | 35% | 95 | 107 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Grizzlies | 58% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 40% | 93 | 86 |
 | 23 | Bulls | 60% | 96 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 18 | Jazz | 41% | 91 | 88 |
 | 22 | Bucks | 59% | 94 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 30% | 93 | 89 |
| 3 | Spurs | 70% | 100 | 90 |
Friday, December 16, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 58% | 102 | 108 |
| 27 | Raptors | 42% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 46% | 95 | 112 |
| 11 | 76ers | 54% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 51% | 96 | 111 |
| 29 | Hawks | 49% | 95 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 33% | 84 | 83 |
| 14 | Pacers | 67% | 90 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 40% | 95 | 100 |
| 20 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 35% | 91 | 106 |
| 12 | Nets | 65% | 96 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 23% | 87 | 82 |
| 2 | Pistons | 77% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 64% | 99 | 101 |
| 25 | Hornets | 36% | 94 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 16% | 83 | 103 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 84% | 96 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 56% | 96 | 111 | |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 37% | 96 | 91 |
| 17 | Lakers | 63% | 100 | 97 |
Thursday, December 15, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 35% | 95 | 85 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 65% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 51% | 90 | 90 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 49% | 89 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 42% | 95 | 104 |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 58% | 98 | 98 | |
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 105 |
| 24 | Raptors | 53% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 18% | 91 | 101 |
| 9 | 76ers | 82% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 49% | 91 | 71 |
| 21 | Celtics | 51% | 92 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 24% | 90 | 91 |
| 11 | Nets | 76% | 99 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 39% | 89 | 105 |
| 25 | Knicks | 61% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 25% | 92 | 98 |
| 1 | Pistons | 75% | 100 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 46% | 96 | 100 |
| 18 | Bucks | 54% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 32% | 88 | 94 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 68% | 94 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clippers | 51% | 94 | 89 |
| 26 | Hornets | 49% | 93 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 36% | 94 | 96 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 64% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 83 | 77 |
| 23 | Jazz | 78% | 93 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 46% | 93 | 111 |
| 13 | Warriors | 54% | 94 | 105 |
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 49% | 98 | 74 | |
| 19 | Wizards | 51% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 13% | 91 | 100 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 87% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 56% | 97 | 101 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 44% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 44% | 94 | 93 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 56% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 52% | 95 | 100 |
| 21 | Bulls | 48% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clippers | 28% | 89 | 87 |
| 4 | Spurs | 72% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 46% | 102 | 110 |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 54% | 104 | 107 | |
Monday, December 12, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 44% | 91 | 89 |
| 11 | 76ers | 56% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 46% | 97 | 112 |
| 24 | Knicks | 54% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 25% | 88 | 109 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 75% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 62% | 90 | 78 |
| 23 | Jazz | 38% | 86 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 13% | 91 | 91 | |
| 3 | Suns | 87% | 105 | 87 |
Sunday, December 11, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 27% | 94 | 101 |
| 6 | Heat | 73% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 61% | 93 | 109 |
| 12 | Clippers | 39% | 90 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 25% | 93 | 100 | |
| 7 | Kings | 75% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 74% | 91 | 100 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 83 | 86 |
Saturday, December 10, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 32% | 95 | 118 |
| 18 | Wizards | 68% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 78% | 99 | 84 |
| 29 | Hawks | 22% | 89 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 56% | 94 | 83 |
| 28 | Magic | 44% | 92 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 31% | 93 | 107 |
| 7 | Nets | 69% | 99 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 40% | 97 | 111 |
| 24 | Bobcats | 60% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grizzlies | 45% | 87 | 66 |
| 17 | Pacers | 55% | 89 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 27% | 88 | 82 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 73% | 95 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 53% | 101 | 106 |
| 21 | Bucks | 47% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 23% | 87 | 94 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 77% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 47% | 104 | 123 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 53% | 105 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 46% | 99 | 91 |
| 15 | Clippers | 54% | 100 | 101 |
Friday, December 9, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bobcats | 33% | 92 | 115 |
| 16 | 76ers | 67% | 98 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 40% | 93 | 100 |
| 9 | Heat | 60% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nets | 30% | 94 | 109 | |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 70% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 38% | 86 | 90 |
| 5 | Grizzlies | 62% | 90 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 44% | 94 | 93 |
| 21 | Bulls | 56% | 96 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 17% | 88 | 89 |
| 1 | Spurs | 83% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 46% | 95 | 106 | |
| 23 | Jazz | 54% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Knicks | 17% | 93 | 81 |
| 4 | Suns | 83% | 105 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 59% | 91 | 95 | |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 88 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 56% | 95 | 106 |
| 13 | Warriors | 44% | 93 | 103 |
Thursday, December 8, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 42% | 94 | 87 |
| 19 | Pacers | 58% | 96 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 39% | 93 | 106 |
| 7 | Kings | 61% | 97 | 95 |
Wednesday, December 7, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 53% | 100 | 102 |
| 26 | Raptors | 47% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 28% | 96 | 88 |
| 13 | 76ers | 72% | 103 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 54% | 91 | 102 |
| 28 | Magic | 46% | 90 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nets | 54% | 96 | 97 | |
| 24 | Bobcats | 46% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 45% | 93 | 101 |
| 25 | Hornets | 55% | 95 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 27% | 89 | 84 |
| 1 | Spurs | 73% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 25% | 88 | 83 |
| 23 | Jazz | 75% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 77% | 92 | 84 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 83 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Knicks | 21% | 90 | 79 |
| 11 | Clippers | 79% | 100 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 41% | 100 | 118 |
| 12 | Warriors | 59% | 103 | 110 |
Tuesday, December 6, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 26% | 97 | 111 |
| 17 | Wizards | 74% | 105 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 37% | 86 | 84 |
| 8 | Pacers | 63% | 91 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Lakers | 42% | 98 | 111 |
| 21 | Bucks | 58% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 21% | 86 | 73 | |
| 4 | Grizzlies | 79% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 37% | 90 | 73 |
| 18 | Rockets | 63% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 18% | 90 | 116 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 82% | 102 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 88 | 85 |
| 6 | Suns | 86% | 102 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 51% | 102 | 102 |
| 13 | Kings | 49% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Knicks | 32% | 97 | 104 |
| 16 | SuperSonics | 68% | 103 | 101 | |