Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, April 11, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Heat | 64% | 97 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bobcats | 46% | 92 | 105 |
| 29 | Nets | 54% | 93 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Magic | 47% | 96 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Celtics | 68% | 97 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Pistons | 62% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Raptors | 23% | 90 | 86 |
 | 18 | Bucks | 77% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 15 | Hornets | 62% | 97 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Mavericks | 42% | 102 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Timberwolves | 28% | 101 | 127 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Thunder | 64% | 102 | 120 |
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Sunday, April 10, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Bulls | 44% | 93 | 102 |
| 5 | Magic | 56% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 34% | 91 | 77 |
| 1 | Heat | 66% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 49% | 96 | 112 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 51% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 44% | 96 | 92 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 56% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 37% | 91 | 89 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Knicks | 46% | 103 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 32% | 99 | 90 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 68% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 36% | 101 | 104 |
| 17 | Warriors | 64% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Thunder | 35% | 94 | 120 |
 | 2 | Lakers | 65% | 99 | 106 |
Saturday, April 9, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 61% | 99 | 83 |
| 30 | Wizards | 39% | 95 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Rockets | 75% | 110 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 25% | 90 | 101 |
| 20 | Bucks | 75% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 19% | 93 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 18% | 97 | 106 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 82% | 109 | 130 |
Friday, April 8, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 44% | 97 | 102 |
| 18 | Pacers | 56% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Knicks | 66% | 104 | 116 |
| 29 | Nets | 34% | 98 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 22% | 93 | 93 |
| 13 | 76ers | 78% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 13% | 87 | 88 |
| 9 | Celtics | 87% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bulls | 74% | 100 | 93 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 26% | 92 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 53% | 96 | 100 |
| 24 | Pistons | 47% | 95 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 12% | 86 | 103 |
| 1 | Heat | 88% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 25% | 93 | 96 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 40% | 97 | 97 |
| 15 | Hornets | 60% | 100 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 42% | 100 | 89 |
| 6 | Thunder | 58% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 28% | 95 | 96 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 72% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 49% | 95 | 86 |
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Thursday, April 7, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 38% | 89 | 81 |
| 4 | Bulls | 62% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 98 | 98 |
| 23 | Jazz | 33% | 92 | 87 |
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 75% | 97 | 111 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 25% | 89 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 22% | 95 | 112 |
| 18 | Pacers | 78% | 105 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 21% | 86 | 90 |
| 3 | Heat | 79% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 42% | 102 | 97 |
| 15 | 76ers | 58% | 104 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 37% | 98 | 104 |
| 25 | Raptors | 63% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 35% | 95 | 109 | |
| 24 | Pistons | 65% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 65% | 107 | 108 |
| 29 | Timberwolves | 35% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 43% | 99 | 93 |
| 16 | Hornets | 57% | 101 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 22% | 93 | 108 |
| 7 | Thunder | 78% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 18% | 93 | 92 |
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 105 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 39% | 99 | 104 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 61% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 63% | 103 | 87 |
| 17 | Warriors | 37% | 98 | 95 |
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 60% | 99 | 97 |
| 17 | Hawks | 40% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 51% | 96 | 89 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 49% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 37% | 100 | 105 |
| 24 | Nets | 63% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 26% | 88 | 72 |
| 4 | Magic | 74% | 97 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 55% | 101 | 105 |
| 30 | Wizards | 45% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 34% | 90 | 82 |
| 10 | Celtics | 66% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 22% | 100 | 118 |
| 13 | Knicks | 78% | 110 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 25% | 93 | 94 |
| 5 | Bulls | 75% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 30% | 94 | 82 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 70% | 101 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 24% | 99 | 104 |
| 9 | Rockets | 76% | 109 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 41% | 99 | 101 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 59% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 23% | 95 | 108 |
| 2 | Trail Blazers | 77% | 105 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 15% | 89 | 86 |
| 1 | Lakers | 85% | 102 | 85 |
Sunday, April 3, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 27% | 99 | 97 |
| 4 | Spurs | 73% | 107 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 33% | 98 | 95 |
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 21% | 88 | 90 |
| 8 | Celtics | 79% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 36% | 93 | 97 |
| 27 | Bobcats | 64% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 78% | 103 | 108 |
| 25 | Nets | 22% | 93 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 17% | 99 | 107 |
| 13 | Knicks | 83% | 111 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 79% | 103 | 98 |
| 26 | Raptors | 21% | 92 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 44% | 97 | 97 |
| 22 | Kings | 56% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 34% | 98 | 109 |
| 11 | Rockets | 66% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 37% | 93 | 96 |
| 17 | Hornets | 63% | 98 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 34% | 94 | 96 |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 100 | 104 |
Saturday, April 2, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 16% | 89 | 106 |
| 7 | Bulls | 84% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 20% | 94 | 89 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 80% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 47% | 92 | 87 |
| 18 | Bucks | 53% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 63% | 104 | 92 |
| 20 | Warriors | 37% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 58% | 102 | 92 |
| 19 | Clippers | 42% | 99 | 98 |
Friday, April 1, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 47% | 93 | 88 |
| 21 | Pacers | 53% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 16% | 87 | 77 |
| 5 | Magic | 84% | 101 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 28% | 94 | 90 | |
| 13 | 76ers | 72% | 102 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 45% | 98 | 107 |
| 30 | Wizards | 55% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 70% | 99 | 101 |
| 24 | Pistons | 30% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 51% | 91 | 83 |
| 17 | Hawks | 49% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 82% | 107 | 111 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 18% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 45% | 93 | 93 |
| 16 | Hornets | 55% | 94 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spurs | 42% | 102 | 114 |
| 11 | Rockets | 58% | 104 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Clippers | 35% | 103 | 98 |
| 12 | Suns | 65% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 37% | 94 | 91 |
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 66% | 105 | 99 |
| 22 | Kings | 34% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 69% | 99 | 96 |
| 25 | Jazz | 31% | 92 | 85 |
Thursday, March 31, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 42% | 93 | 107 |
| 9 | Spurs | 58% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 33% | 95 | 82 |
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 100 | 110 |
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 56% | 96 | 82 |
| 16 | Hawks | 44% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 29% | 91 | 97 |
| 28 | Bobcats | 71% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 38% | 98 | 101 |
| 21 | Pacers | 62% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 38% | 100 | 97 |
| 14 | 76ers | 62% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 61% | 97 | 104 |
| 26 | Raptors | 39% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 84% | 106 | 123 |
| 30 | Wizards | 16% | 93 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 22% | 100 | 116 | |
| 13 | Knicks | 78% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 29% | 97 | 91 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 71% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bulls | 75% | 102 | 108 |
| 27 | Timberwolves | 25% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 94 | 91 |
| 17 | Hornets | 45% | 92 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 19% | 97 | 90 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 81% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 43% | 101 | 116 |
| 11 | Suns | 57% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 65% | 103 | 106 |
| 20 | Clippers | 35% | 98 | 100 |
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 88% | 106 | 90 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 12% | 91 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 68% | 103 | 112 |
| 27 | Nets | 32% | 97 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 25% | 98 | 114 |
| 7 | Thunder | 75% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 58% | 104 | 113 |
| 22 | Kings | 42% | 102 | 116 |