Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 13, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Heat | 57% | 103 | 117 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 43% | 101 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Knicks | 66% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bucks | 44% | 95 | 103 |
 | 26 | Bobcats | 56% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Celtics | 36% | 95 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nets | 35% | 86 | 69 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Hornets | 51% | 97 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Timberwolves | 62% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Magic | 47% | 89 | 108 |
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Thursday, January 12, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Lakers | 52% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Pistons | 37% | 87 | 83 |
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Wednesday, January 11, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heat | 49% | 99 | 110 |
| 18 | Warriors | 51% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bobcats | 36% | 96 | 86 |
 | 24 | Raptors | 64% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | 76ers | 61% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 27% | 96 | 72 |
| 20 | Wizards | 73% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Mavericks | 70% | 99 | 115 |
| 26 | Knicks | 30% | 93 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 26% | 88 | 88 |
| 12 | Pacers | 74% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Bulls | 37% | 88 | 93 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 63% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 43% | 92 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 69% | 95 | 103 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 88 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 28% | 94 | 104 |
| 14 | SuperSonics | 72% | 102 | 113 | |
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 56% | 101 | 137 |
| 13 | Nuggets | 44% | 99 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 49% | 98 | 98 |
| 29 | Hawks | 51% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 22% | 92 | 92 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 78% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 51% | 91 | 106 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 49% | 90 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 52% | 94 | 92 |
| 22 | Bucks | 48% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 72% | 93 | 96 |
| 24 | Hornets | 28% | 86 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 26% | 86 | 91 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 74% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 42% | 90 | 73 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 27 | Clippers | 58% | 92 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 28% | 88 | 85 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 72% | 95 | 99 |
Monday, January 9, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 35% | 89 | 90 |
| 10 | Lakers | 65% | 93 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 30% | 94 | 104 |
| 19 | Bulls | 70% | 101 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 97 | 104 |
| 15 | Celtics | 40% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 42% | 93 | 97 |
| 17 | Wizards | 58% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 31% | 98 | 98 | |
| 11 | 76ers | 69% | 104 | 107 |
Sunday, January 8, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 40% | 93 | 108 |
| 11 | Kings | 60% | 97 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 60% | 99 | 105 | |
| 23 | Raptors | 40% | 95 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | SuperSonics | 47% | 99 | 116 | |
| 28 | Knicks | 53% | 100 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 45% | 92 | 92 |
| 14 | Rockets | 55% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 68% | 95 | 118 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 89 | 89 |
Saturday, January 7, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 42% | 92 | 93 | |
| 28 | Hawks | 58% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 43% | 92 | 112 |
| 19 | Clippers | 57% | 94 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 41% | 94 | 86 |
| 4 | Suns | 59% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 26% | 88 | 79 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 74% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Grizzlies | 58% | 91 | 82 |
| 21 | Bulls | 42% | 88 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 22% | 94 | 88 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 78% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 17% | 81 | 94 |
| 1 | Pistons | 83% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bobcats | 49% | 92 | 92 |
| 26 | Magic | 51% | 93 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 41% | 99 | 102 |
| 20 | Wizards | 59% | 102 | 103 |
Friday, January 6, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 19% | 91 | 85 | |
| 1 | Pistons | 81% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 51% | 94 | 92 |
| 27 | Raptors | 49% | 93 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 30% | 95 | 103 |
| 17 | Celtics | 70% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 24% | 87 | 106 |
| 8 | Nets | 76% | 96 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 54% | 99 | 92 |
| 28 | Knicks | 46% | 98 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 27% | 82 | 65 |
| 5 | Grizzlies | 73% | 90 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 83 | 80 |
| 24 | Hornets | 71% | 90 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 27% | 85 | 77 |
| 2 | Spurs | 73% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 40% | 96 | 105 |
| 21 | Bucks | 60% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 98 | 114 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 45% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 36% | 95 | 114 |
| 12 | Kings | 64% | 99 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 36% | 96 | 93 |
| 4 | Suns | 64% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 46% | 93 | 93 |
| 19 | Lakers | 54% | 95 | 119 |
Thursday, January 5, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 36% | 92 | 99 |
| 13 | Warriors | 64% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 31% | 89 | 90 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 69% | 95 | 81 |
Wednesday, January 4, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 35% | 94 | 106 |
| 15 | Celtics | 65% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 42% | 93 | 97 |
| 25 | Raptors | 58% | 96 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cavaliers | 60% | 101 | 91 |
| 21 | Bucks | 40% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Heat | 66% | 96 | 92 |
| 26 | Hornets | 34% | 91 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 47% | 92 | 78 |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 53% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 9% | 80 | 75 |
| 2 | Spurs | 91% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 40% | 92 | 86 |
| 13 | Nuggets | 60% | 95 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 23% | 96 | 85 |
| 3 | Suns | 77% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 42% | 99 | 101 | |
| 22 | Bulls | 58% | 102 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 3, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 44% | 98 | 111 |
| 12 | Kings | 56% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 49% | 90 | 80 |
| 17 | Jazz | 51% | 91 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 13% | 84 | 81 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 87% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Warriors | 28% | 91 | 94 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 72% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 17% | 84 | 99 |
| 1 | Pistons | 83% | 95 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 48% | 99 | 108 |
| 30 | Hawks | 52% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rockets | 39% | 92 | 123 |
| 19 | Wizards | 61% | 96 | 111 |
Monday, January 2, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 39% | 97 | 110 |
| 12 | Nuggets | 61% | 101 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SuperSonics | 38% | 93 | 96 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 62% | 97 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 73% | 103 | 133 |
| 28 | Knicks | 27% | 95 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 40% | 95 | 93 |
| 18 | Bulls | 60% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 43% | 91 | 86 |
| 27 | Hornets | 57% | 93 | 103 | |
Sunday, January 1, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 30% | 87 | 98 |
| 10 | Lakers | 70% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 52% | 91 | 100 |
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 90 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 29% | 90 | 70 |
| 5 | Heat | 71% | 97 | 97 |
Saturday, December 31, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 49% | 94 | 84 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 51% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 35% | 93 | 111 |
| 19 | Clippers | 65% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 49% | 94 | 100 |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 51% | 95 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 59% | 96 | 98 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 41% | 93 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 49% | 92 | 102 |
| 22 | Jazz | 51% | 93 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 42% | 93 | 94 |
| 24 | Rockets | 58% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 62% | 93 | 95 |
| 27 | Hornets | 38% | 90 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 57% | 99 | 107 |
| 20 | Bulls | 43% | 97 | 98 |