Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, January 31, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Raptors | 26% | 97 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Nets | 34% | 98 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Heat | 94% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Magic | 52% | 98 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Mavericks | 81% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Bobcats | 40% | 92 | 78 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Bucks | 49% | 95 | 98 |
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Sunday, January 30, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 55% | 99 | 108 |
 | 12 | Thunder | 45% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Celtics | 37% | 92 | 109 |
 | 1 | Lakers | 63% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 9% | 92 | 87 |
| 3 | Magic | 91% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 55% | 103 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Pistons | 28% | 97 | 106 |
 | 10 | Knicks | 72% | 105 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 39% | 96 | 102 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 47% | 102 | 81 |
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Saturday, January 29, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 33% | 91 | 89 |
 | 9 | Bulls | 67% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 28% | 92 | 93 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 72% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 39% | 104 | 87 |
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 61% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Mavericks | 65% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 24% | 86 | 81 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 76% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 68% | 96 | 96 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 38% | 95 | 88 |
| 22 | Clippers | 62% | 99 | 103 |
Friday, January 28, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 30% | 93 | 92 | |
| 17 | Pacers | 70% | 100 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 44% | 96 | 99 |
| 19 | 76ers | 56% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 56% | 97 | 116 |
| 26 | Raptors | 44% | 95 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 39% | 100 | 102 |
| 12 | Hawks | 61% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 79% | 109 | 117 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 21% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 18% | 87 | 87 |
| 1 | Heat | 82% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 49% | 95 | 90 |
| 8 | Bulls | 51% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 24% | 96 | 117 |
| 11 | Thunder | 76% | 105 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 30% | 100 | 100 |
| 16 | Jazz | 70% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 46% | 98 | 71 |
| 10 | Suns | 54% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 40% | 98 | 121 |
| 20 | Warriors | 60% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 17% | 91 | 100 |
| 2 | Lakers | 83% | 104 | 95 |
Thursday, January 27, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heat | 51% | 102 | 88 |
| 11 | Knicks | 49% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 33% | 97 | 106 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 67% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 51% | 92 | 88 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 15 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 91 | 78 |
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 61% | 101 | 111 |
| 20 | Pacers | 39% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 59% | 97 | 88 |
| 27 | Nets | 41% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 56% | 102 | 107 |
| 26 | Raptors | 44% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 55% | 102 | 109 |
| 24 | Pistons | 45% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 91 | 90 |
| 22 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 63% | 106 | 118 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 37% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 29% | 101 | 83 |
| 12 | Rockets | 71% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 26% | 95 | 114 |
| 8 | Suns | 74% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 100 | 112 |
| 16 | Jazz | 40% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 52% | 99 | 112 | |
| 19 | Warriors | 48% | 98 | 103 |
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 70% | 106 | 120 |
| 27 | Wizards | 30% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 9% | 84 | 95 |
| 6 | Celtics | 91% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 30% | 95 | 105 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 70% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 54% | 95 | 94 |
| 28 | Kings | 46% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 26% | 94 | 91 |
| 1 | Lakers | 74% | 103 | 120 |
Monday, January 24, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 32% | 93 | 101 |
| 28 | Nets | 68% | 99 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 16% | 91 | 103 |
| 2 | Magic | 84% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 49% | 101 | 95 |
| 17 | 76ers | 51% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 57% | 102 | 100 |
| 25 | Raptors | 43% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 26% | 98 | 106 |
| 11 | Knicks | 74% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 30% | 86 | 83 |
| 10 | Bulls | 70% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 59% | 108 | 129 |
| 27 | Timberwolves | 41% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 45% | 93 | 89 |
| 13 | Hornets | 55% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 25% | 91 | 96 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 100 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 59% | 104 | 113 |
| 18 | Warriors | 41% | 101 | 102 |
Sunday, January 23, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 25% | 99 | 107 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 75% | 108 | 121 |
Saturday, January 22, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 47% | 94 | 103 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 53% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 71% | 97 | 87 |
| 29 | Nets | 29% | 89 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 68% | 97 | 83 |
| 24 | Wizards | 32% | 90 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 60% | 102 | 74 |
| 26 | Pistons | 40% | 99 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 13% | 91 | 103 |
| 2 | Heat | 87% | 106 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jazz | 43% | 96 | 85 |
| 20 | 76ers | 57% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 11% | 85 | 79 |
| 11 | Bulls | 89% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 53% | 94 | 72 |
| 14 | Hornets | 47% | 93 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 36% | 102 | 98 |
| 9 | Thunder | 64% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 52% | 103 | 118 |
| 13 | Rockets | 48% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 45% | 92 | 94 |
| 22 | Bucks | 55% | 94 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 33% | 93 | 92 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 38% | 103 | 109 |
| 18 | Clippers | 62% | 107 | 113 |
Friday, January 21, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 48% | 94 | 74 |
| 29 | Nets | 52% | 95 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 19% | 97 | 72 |
| 4 | Magic | 81% | 109 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 46% | 93 | 100 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 54% | 95 | 59 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jazz | 33% | 92 | 86 |
| 5 | Celtics | 67% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 69% | 97 | 102 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 31% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 59% | 104 | 109 |
| 25 | Wizards | 41% | 101 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 47% | 100 | 110 |
| 17 | Grizzlies | 53% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 29% | 100 | 92 |
| 3 | Spurs | 71% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 49% | 103 | 107 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 51% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 33% | 99 | 112 |
| 20 | Warriors | 67% | 105 | 119 |
Thursday, January 20, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 44% | 93 | 97 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 56% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 38% | 89 | 77 |
| 12 | Bulls | 62% | 93 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Clippers | 31% | 94 | 93 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 100 | 108 |
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 72% | 107 | 106 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 28% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 67% | 99 | 95 |
| 29 | Nets | 33% | 94 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 24% | 95 | 98 |
| 3 | Magic | 76% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 19% | 88 | 82 |
| 5 | Celtics | 81% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 37% | 91 | 87 |
| 22 | Bucks | 63% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 37% | 91 | 102 |
| 15 | Hornets | 63% | 96 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 44% | 106 | 89 |
| 14 | Rockets | 56% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 19% | 96 | 95 |
| 4 | Spurs | 81% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 57% | 96 | 100 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 43% | 94 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 41% | 102 | 107 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 59% | 105 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 99 | 94 |
| 28 | Kings | 33% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 45% | 102 | 108 |
| 20 | Warriors | 55% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 33% | 102 | 111 |
| 17 | Clippers | 67% | 107 | 126 |
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 31% | 93 | 93 |
| 4 | Heat | 69% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 28% | 86 | 83 |
| 11 | Bulls | 72% | 94 | 82 |