Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Celtics | 51% | 107 | 99 |
 | 15 | Heat | 49% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Thunder | 55% | 113 | 147 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Pistons | 35% | 111 | 102 |
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Wednesday, January 9, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 4 | Celtics | 67% | 110 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Nets | 74% | 118 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 49% | 114 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 51% | 105 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 30 | Cavaliers | 10% | 106 | 124 |
 | 14 | Pelicans | 90% | 124 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Mavericks | 82% | 117 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 20% | 99 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Bulls | 22% | 103 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 45% | 107 | 100 |
 | 23 | Lakers | 55% | 109 | 113 |
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 80% | 114 | 123 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 20% | 102 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 35% | 111 | 115 |
| 11 | 76ers | 65% | 117 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 49% | 107 | 103 |
| 16 | Heat | 51% | 108 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 14% | 108 | 101 |
 | 2 | Raptors | 86% | 123 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Timberwolves | 33% | 109 | 119 |
| 6 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 57% | 116 | 111 |
| 29 | Suns | 43% | 114 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Knicks | 7% | 107 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Hornets | 35% | 115 | 109 |
| 15 | Clippers | 65% | 120 | 128 |
Monday, January 7, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 57% | 112 | 119 |
| 21 | Pistons | 43% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 24% | 105 | 95 |
| 6 | Celtics | 76% | 115 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 49% | 112 | 113 |
| 8 | Rockets | 51% | 113 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 43% | 110 | 102 |
| 4 | Bucks | 57% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 43% | 106 | 95 |
| 16 | Pelicans | 57% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Lakers | 32% | 108 | 107 |
| 17 | Mavericks | 68% | 115 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Knicks | 24% | 109 | 101 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 76% | 119 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 35% | 111 | 95 |
| 22 | Kings | 65% | 116 | 111 |
Sunday, January 6, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 61% | 111 | 117 |
| 28 | Bulls | 39% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lakers | 39% | 110 | 86 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 61% | 114 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 30% | 109 | 96 |
| 14 | Clippers | 70% | 116 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 68% | 114 | 82 |
| 29 | Hawks | 32% | 108 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 27% | 108 | 116 |
| 6 | Thunder | 73% | 117 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 49% | 107 | 105 |
| 8 | Raptors | 51% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 49% | 114 | 119 |
| 26 | Suns | 51% | 115 | 113 |
Saturday, January 5, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 24% | 108 | 110 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 76% | 118 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 59% | 108 | 110 |
| 21 | Pistons | 41% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 34% | 110 | 100 |
| 11 | 76ers | 66% | 116 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 77% | 120 | 133 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 23% | 110 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raptors | 49% | 114 | 123 |
| 7 | Bucks | 51% | 115 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 32% | 102 | 88 |
| 10 | Spurs | 68% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 51% | 112 | 101 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 111 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 70% | 123 | 127 |
| 22 | Kings | 30% | 115 | 123 |
Friday, January 4, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 84% | 114 | 117 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 16% | 101 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 38% | 105 | 93 |
| 10 | Celtics | 62% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 37% | 107 | 109 |
| 12 | Heat | 63% | 111 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 77% | 109 | 119 |
| 29 | Bulls | 23% | 98 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 38% | 102 | 109 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 62% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 33% | 107 | 103 |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 67% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 17% | 110 | 112 |
| 5 | Bucks | 83% | 123 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clippers | 64% | 118 | 121 |
| 26 | Suns | 36% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 30% | 108 | 119 |
| 23 | Lakers | 70% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Thunder | 54% | 111 | 111 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 110 | 109 |
Thursday, January 3, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 54% | 113 | 107 |
| 9 | Spurs | 46% | 112 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 61% | 118 | 117 |
| 22 | Kings | 39% | 114 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 26% | 110 | 135 |
| 1 | Warriors | 74% | 119 | 134 |
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mavericks | 48% | 113 | 122 |
| 22 | Hornets | 52% | 114 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 72% | 110 | 117 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 28% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 33% | 113 | 98 |
| 19 | Wizards | 67% | 119 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 48% | 115 | 121 |
| 23 | Nets | 52% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Timberwolves | 37% | 107 | 102 |
| 8 | Celtics | 63% | 111 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 51% | 105 | 112 |
| 26 | Bulls | 49% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 29% | 98 | 101 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 71% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 59% | 115 | 132 |
| 27 | Suns | 41% | 111 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 60% | 112 | 107 |
| 20 | Lakers | 40% | 108 | 100 |
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 45% | 106 | 116 |
| 5 | Raptors | 55% | 108 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 28% | 109 | 98 |
| 4 | Bucks | 72% | 117 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 15% | 105 | 108 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 85% | 120 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 117 | 113 |
| 22 | Kings | 49% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 46% | 116 | 119 |
| 16 | Clippers | 54% | 118 | 113 |
Monday, December 31, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 19% | 105 | 108 |
| 9 | Pacers | 81% | 117 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 29% | 106 | 100 |
| 13 | Hornets | 71% | 114 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 37% | 101 | 101 |
| 7 | Rockets | 63% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 54% | 112 | 111 |
| 10 | Spurs | 46% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 43% | 114 | 114 |
| 18 | Pelicans | 57% | 116 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mavericks | 32% | 107 | 102 |
| 8 | Thunder | 68% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 81% | 121 | 132 |
| 27 | Suns | 19% | 108 | 109 |
Sunday, December 30, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 49% | 106 | 107 |
| 25 | Magic | 51% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 45% | 106 | 113 |
| 15 | Heat | 55% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 19% | 101 | 89 |
| 8 | Raptors | 81% | 113 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 53% | 112 | 103 |
| 17 | Mavericks | 47% | 111 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 55% | 114 | 95 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kings | 46% | 114 | 114 |
| 24 | Lakers | 54% | 116 | 121 |
Saturday, December 29, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 24% | 109 | 115 |
| 6 | Bucks | 76% | 119 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 54% | 116 | 108 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 46% | 115 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 56% | 115 | 126 |
| 25 | Wizards | 44% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 33% | 110 | 108 |
| 26 | Hawks | 67% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 58% | 104 | 112 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 42% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 16% | 101 | 97 |
| 3 | Jazz | 84% | 115 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 72% | 114 | 122 |
| 28 | Suns | 28% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 68% | 119 | 115 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 112 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Spurs | 43% | 115 | 122 |
| 19 | Clippers | 57% | 117 | 111 |
Friday, December 28, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 39% | 112 | 87 |
| 15 | Hornets | 61% | 116 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 33% | 103 | 88 |
| 9 | Pacers | 67% | 109 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 72% | 113 | 87 |
| 25 | Magic | 28% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 34% | 106 | 101 |
| 23 | Wizards | 66% | 112 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 19% | 99 | 94 |
| 11 | Heat | 81% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 26% | 110 | 123 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 74% | 119 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mavericks | 42% | 114 | 112 |
| 18 | Pelicans | 58% | 117 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Spurs | 39% | 109 | 99 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 61% | 113 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 77% | 116 | 118 |
| 27 | Suns | 23% | 106 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 56% | 115 | 118 |
| 24 | Lakers | 44% | 113 | 107 |