Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, November 20, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 29% | 94 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Mavericks | 59% | 99 | 95 |
Wednesday, November 19, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 45% | 93 | 81 | |
 | 18 | Celtics | 55% | 95 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Raptors | 45% | 87 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Lakers | 53% | 102 | 104 |
 | 20 | Knicks | 47% | 101 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Pistons | 40% | 96 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Bucks | 48% | 100 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Heat | 25% | 90 | 93 |
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Tuesday, November 18, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Heat | 27% | 92 | 105 |
| 14 | SuperSonics | 73% | 99 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bulls | 27% | 94 | 82 |
| 16 | Suns | 73% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 18% | 88 | 81 |
| 3 | Spurs | 82% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nuggets | 30% | 91 | 76 |
 | 15 | Timberwolves | 70% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 22 | Hawks | 24% | 96 | 101 |
| 10 | Bucks | 76% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 45% | 99 | 96 |
| 7 | Pistons | 55% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 37% | 91 | 88 | |
| 6 | Nets | 63% | 95 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 41% | 100 | 95 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 59% | 103 | 103 |
Monday, November 17, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 39% | 89 | 74 |
| 13 | 76ers | 61% | 93 | 66 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 43% | 92 | 86 |
| 18 | Knicks | 57% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wizards | 38% | 94 | 106 |
| 21 | Hawks | 62% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 35% | 95 | 88 |
| 20 | Jazz | 65% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 97 | 98 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 77% | 106 | 105 |
Sunday, November 16, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 14% | 93 | 77 |
| 1 | Lakers | 86% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 17% | 96 | 104 |
| 3 | Kings | 83% | 108 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 63% | 89 | 97 |
| 30 | Raptors | 37% | 85 | 101 |
Saturday, November 15, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 48% | 92 | 100 | |
| 19 | Hawks | 52% | 93 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 95 | 79 |
| 9 | Hornets | 67% | 100 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 61% | 95 | 95 |
| 18 | Wizards | 39% | 92 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 53% | 91 | 95 |
| 21 | Knicks | 47% | 90 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 58% | 96 | 88 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 42% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 47% | 98 | 98 | |
| 28 | Bulls | 53% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 24% | 96 | 95 |
| 10 | Bucks | 76% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 44% | 95 | 100 |
| 14 | Suns | 56% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 41% | 103 | 92 |
| 26 | Clippers | 59% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 52% | 104 | 101 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 48% | 103 | 108 |
Friday, November 14, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 29% | 91 | 82 |
| 20 | Celtics | 71% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 28% | 88 | 80 |
| 5 | Nets | 72% | 95 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 49% | 93 | 101 |
| 29 | Heat | 51% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 33% | 89 | 78 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 67% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 53% | 91 | 96 |
| 13 | 76ers | 47% | 90 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 30% | 89 | 85 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 70% | 95 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 39% | 92 | 85 |
| 11 | Rockets | 61% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 20% | 89 | 64 |
| 1 | Kings | 80% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 34% | 95 | 101 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 66% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 29% | 98 | 89 |
| 2 | Lakers | 71% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Clippers | 36% | 102 | 104 |
| 24 | Warriors | 64% | 106 | 98 |
Thursday, November 13, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 57% | 101 | 110 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 65% | 97 | 92 |
| 29 | Bulls | 35% | 92 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 33% | 95 | 86 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 67% | 101 | 97 |
Wednesday, November 12, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 28% | 92 | 89 |
| 17 | Celtics | 72% | 99 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 44% | 88 | 85 |
| 6 | Nets | 56% | 90 | 71 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 51% | 100 | 107 |
| 25 | Magic | 49% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 44% | 93 | 83 |
| 28 | Heat | 56% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 30% | 92 | 89 |
| 8 | Hornets | 70% | 99 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 30% | 98 | 104 | |
| 10 | Bucks | 70% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 28% | 93 | 99 |
| 15 | Suns | 72% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 51% | 99 | 85 |
| 22 | Warriors | 49% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 12% | 88 | 79 |
| 1 | Lakers | 88% | 103 | 94 |
Tuesday, November 11, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 51% | 102 | 103 |
| 28 | Clippers | 49% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 33% | 87 | 80 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 92 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 34% | 96 | 91 |
| 2 | Kings | 66% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 23% | 85 | 70 |
| 11 | Rockets | 77% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 32% | 99 | 97 | |
| 3 | Mavericks | 68% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 36% | 94 | 89 | |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 64% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 30% | 86 | 78 |
| 6 | Pacers | 70% | 93 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 48% | 93 | 112 |
| 21 | Wizards | 52% | 94 | 105 |
Monday, November 10, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Knicks | 55% | 98 | 80 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 45% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 57% | 104 | 95 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 43% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 42% | 96 | 105 |
| 29 | Bulls | 58% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 49% | 99 | 99 |
| 22 | Warriors | 51% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 24% | 86 | 78 |
| 9 | Spurs | 76% | 95 | 87 |
Sunday, November 9, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 25% | 94 | 91 |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 75% | 103 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 41% | 89 | 84 | |
| 4 | Pistons | 59% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 43% | 89 | 85 |
| 10 | 76ers | 57% | 91 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 57% | 100 | 82 |
| 18 | Celtics | 43% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 45% | 90 | 76 |
| 28 | Raptors | 55% | 91 | 89 |
Saturday, November 8, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 17% | 91 | 109 |
| 7 | Hornets | 83% | 102 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Timberwolves | 47% | 89 | 88 |
| 25 | Heat | 53% | 90 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 53% | 95 | 98 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 47% | 94 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Knicks | 32% | 97 | 87 |
| 12 | Bucks | 68% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 17% | 88 | 86 |
| 9 | Rockets | 83% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 44% | 96 | 81 |
| 10 | Spurs | 56% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 47% | 95 | 89 |
| 22 | Jazz | 53% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 38% | 94 | 83 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 98 | 90 |
Friday, November 7, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 30% | 85 | 60 |
| 20 | Wizards | 70% | 91 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 99 | 82 |
| 18 | SuperSonics | 57% | 102 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 41% | 93 | 89 |
| 23 | Warriors | 59% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 42% | 97 | 88 |
| 16 | Suns | 58% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Clippers | 34% | 101 | 104 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 66% | 106 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 60% | 97 | 106 |
| 29 | Bulls | 40% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 30% | 92 | 99 |
| 4 | Pistons | 70% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 49% | 102 | 95 |
| 10 | Hornets | 51% | 103 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Timberwolves | 48% | 95 | 100 |
| 22 | Magic | 52% | 96 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 21% | 87 | 90 |
| 6 | Pacers | 79% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 61% | 101 | 111 |
| 17 | Knicks | 39% | 97 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 43% | 90 | 94 | |
| 14 | Celtics | 57% | 92 | 87 |