Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Celtics | 32% | 87 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Mavericks | 44% | 97 | 102 |
 | 7 | Pistons | 56% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Raptors | 57% | 94 | 83 |
Saturday, January 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 59% | 97 | 84 | |
 | 28 | Bulls | 41% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Bucks | 43% | 98 | 88 |
 | 21 | Knicks | 57% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Heat | 14% | 87 | 77 |
 | 3 | Timberwolves | 86% | 100 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SuperSonics | 43% | 101 | 110 | |
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Friday, January 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 56% | 91 | 81 | |
| 19 | 76ers | 44% | 89 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 42% | 99 | 92 |
 | 25 | Magic | 58% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 35% | 94 | 78 |
| 21 | Raptors | 65% | 99 | 68 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 15 | Celtics | 65% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 47% | 90 | 94 |
| 12 | Hornets | 53% | 91 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 35% | 97 | 92 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 65% | 102 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Heat | 26% | 92 | 94 |
| 13 | Bucks | 74% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 42% | 95 | 96 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 58% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 73% | 104 | 113 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 29% | 96 | 67 |
 | 17 | Lakers | 71% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 39% | 100 | 116 |
| 7 | SuperSonics | 61% | 103 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 96 | 87 |
| 29 | Bulls | 56% | 98 | 78 |
Thursday, January 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 94 | 75 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 77% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 42% | 90 | 111 |
| 16 | Knicks | 58% | 93 | 79 |
Wednesday, January 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 41% | 92 | 95 |
| 27 | Heat | 59% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 26% | 97 | 93 |
| 16 | Celtics | 74% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 27% | 93 | 80 |
| 15 | 76ers | 73% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 32% | 89 | 69 |
| 22 | Raptors | 68% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 38% | 85 | 66 |
| 7 | Pistons | 62% | 88 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 27% | 95 | 87 |
| 13 | Bucks | 73% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 22% | 100 | 99 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 78% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 38% | 101 | 91 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 62% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 52% | 106 | 93 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 48% | 105 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 19% | 90 | 87 |
| 10 | Hornets | 81% | 101 | 97 | |
Tuesday, January 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 22% | 92 | 75 |
| 4 | Nets | 78% | 101 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 47% | 95 | 96 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 53% | 96 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 22% | 90 | 107 |
| 5 | Pacers | 78% | 100 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 29% | 99 | 90 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 71% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 24% | 86 | 72 |
| 7 | Spurs | 76% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 12% | 93 | 89 |
| 1 | Kings | 88% | 107 | 105 |
Monday, January 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 40% | 94 | 88 |
| 18 | 76ers | 60% | 97 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 98 | 108 |
| 11 | SuperSonics | 63% | 103 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 94 |
| 20 | Jazz | 39% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 57% | 94 | 98 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 43% | 92 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 30% | 89 | 65 |
| 10 | Rockets | 70% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 42% | 95 | 82 |
| 28 | Bulls | 58% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 62% | 91 | 87 |
| 26 | Heat | 38% | 87 | 65 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 53% | 93 | 78 |
| 19 | Celtics | 47% | 92 | 68 |
Sunday, January 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 61% | 107 | 98 |
| 24 | Clippers | 39% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 26% | 100 | 99 | |
| 1 | Kings | 74% | 108 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 53% | 91 | 95 | |
| 16 | Knicks | 47% | 90 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 54% | 99 | 100 |
| 26 | Wizards | 46% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 42% | 94 | 73 |
| 23 | Raptors | 58% | 97 | 83 |
Saturday, January 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 46% | 97 | 88 |
| 26 | Bulls | 54% | 98 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 15% | 82 | 83 |
| 2 | Spurs | 85% | 95 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 108 | 116 |
| 23 | Clippers | 31% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 27% | 89 | 93 |
| 7 | Pistons | 73% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 84 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 66% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 23% | 96 | 103 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 77% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 30% | 100 | 112 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 70% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jazz | 28% | 87 | 63 |
| 12 | Rockets | 72% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hawks | 27% | 94 | 84 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 73% | 102 | 76 |
Friday, January 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 30% | 92 | 104 |
| 17 | Knicks | 70% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 51% | 98 | 79 |
| 30 | Wizards | 49% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 52% | 94 | 86 | |
| 24 | Raptors | 48% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 54% | 93 | 103 |
| 19 | Celtics | 46% | 92 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 26% | 87 | 82 |
| 6 | Nets | 74% | 95 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 37% | 94 | 101 |
| 26 | Heat | 63% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 18% | 90 | 75 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 82% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 36% | 95 | 88 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 64% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 107 | 101 |
| 14 | Bucks | 45% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 41% | 98 | 106 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 59% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 46% | 104 | 109 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 54% | 105 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 30% | 90 | 81 |
| 12 | Pistons | 70% | 97 | 93 |
Wednesday, December 31, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 30% | 86 | 72 |
| 10 | Rockets | 70% | 92 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 42% | 101 | 104 |
| 24 | Clippers | 58% | 104 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 25% | 90 | 70 |
| 5 | Nets | 75% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 90 | 71 |
| 9 | Pistons | 70% | 97 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 49% | 97 | 96 | |
| 20 | Celtics | 51% | 98 | 94 |
Tuesday, December 30, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 22% | 101 | 92 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 78% | 111 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 41% | 94 | 83 |
| 29 | Wizards | 59% | 97 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 52% | 91 | 92 |
| 21 | Cavaliers | 48% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 33% | 90 | 73 |
| 18 | Knicks | 67% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 12% | 89 | 93 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 88% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 35% | 98 | 105 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 65% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 37% | 95 | 81 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 63% | 99 | 74 |
Monday, December 29, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 44% | 98 | 114 |
| 25 | Magic | 56% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 35% | 96 | 100 |
| 19 | Warriors | 65% | 101 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 39% | 99 | 113 |
| 21 | Clippers | 61% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 36% | 90 | 97 |
| 14 | Jazz | 64% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 36% | 92 | 87 | |
| 10 | Rockets | 64% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Heat | 42% | 92 | 90 |
| 27 | Bulls | 58% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 37% | 90 | 99 | |
| 8 | Pistons | 63% | 94 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 89 | 91 |
| 5 | Nets | 78% | 99 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 36% | 90 | 86 |
| 7 | Pacers | 64% | 95 | 94 |