Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bulls | 80% | 103 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Heat | 61% | 100 | 96 |
 | 23 | Celtics | 39% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bobcats | 36% | 96 | 99 |
 | 15 | Nets | 64% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Raptors | 54% | 101 | 107 |
 | 20 | Pelicans | 46% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Knicks | 43% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 43% | 106 | 123 |
 | 7 | Mavericks | 57% | 108 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Pistons | 39% | 105 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Magic | 22% | 96 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Lakers | 22% | 100 | 109 |
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 74% | 105 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 52% | 102 | 113 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Bucks | 23% | 100 | 115 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 20% | 97 | 89 |
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Monday, March 17, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 53% | 100 | 97 |
| 19 | Bobcats | 47% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 11% | 91 | 90 |
| 10 | Pacers | 89% | 108 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 41% | 101 | 95 |
| 15 | Nets | 59% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Thunder | 44% | 95 | 97 |
| 12 | Bulls | 56% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 18% | 97 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 23% | 98 | 89 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 77% | 108 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 2 | Clippers | 63% | 109 | 100 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 37% | 105 | 110 |
Sunday, March 16, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bobcats | 60% | 101 | 101 |
| 28 | Bucks | 40% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 41% | 101 | 121 |
| 12 | Raptors | 59% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 35% | 100 | 104 |
| 1 | Heat | 65% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 41% | 98 | 120 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 59% | 101 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 22% | 100 | 102 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 78% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 34% | 102 | 109 |
| 4 | Thunder | 66% | 108 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 17% | 95 | 104 |
| 3 | Spurs | 83% | 107 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 54% | 105 | 113 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 18% | 97 | 80 |
| 2 | Clippers | 82% | 110 | 102 |
Saturday, March 15, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 32% | 98 | 94 |
| 18 | Knicks | 68% | 104 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 47% | 100 | 94 |
| 16 | Wizards | 53% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 35% | 104 | 92 |
| 17 | Hawks | 65% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 60% | 100 | 112 |
| 24 | Pistons | 40% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 78% | 105 | 103 |
| 30 | 76ers | 22% | 94 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 32% | 92 | 87 |
| 14 | Bulls | 68% | 98 | 94 |
Friday, March 14, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 61% | 105 | 93 |
| 19 | Bobcats | 39% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 59% | 102 | 105 |
| 27 | Magic | 41% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 83% | 106 | 101 |
| 30 | 76ers | 17% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 47% | 94 | 86 |
| 13 | Raptors | 53% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 61% | 105 | 87 |
| 25 | Celtics | 39% | 101 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 20% | 99 | 111 |
| 1 | Heat | 80% | 111 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 59% | 104 | 111 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 41% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 11% | 96 | 85 |
| 3 | Spurs | 89% | 113 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 75% | 107 | 96 |
| 26 | Jazz | 25% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 21% | 95 | 103 |
| 5 | Warriors | 79% | 106 | 94 |
Thursday, March 13, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 56% | 98 | 87 |
| 14 | Bulls | 44% | 96 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 31% | 99 | 97 |
| 17 | Hawks | 69% | 106 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 16% | 100 | 102 |
| 4 | Thunder | 84% | 113 | 131 |
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 25% | 95 | 96 |
| 2 | Heat | 75% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 54% | 105 | 120 |
| 27 | Magic | 46% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 64% | 107 | 115 |
| 30 | 76ers | 36% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 26% | 98 | 87 |
| 12 | Raptors | 74% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bobcats | 38% | 98 | 98 |
| 15 | Wizards | 62% | 102 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 53% | 101 | 116 |
| 24 | Celtics | 47% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 55% | 96 | 90 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 45% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 58% | 105 | 108 |
| 26 | Jazz | 42% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 101 | 90 |
| 3 | Spurs | 71% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 29% | 100 | 110 |
| 13 | Suns | 71% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 33% | 100 | 98 |
| 1 | Clippers | 67% | 106 | 111 |
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 25% | 92 | 83 |
| 10 | Pacers | 75% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 46% | 103 | 89 |
| 23 | Pistons | 54% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 58% | 95 | 104 |
| 12 | Bulls | 42% | 93 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 98 | 99 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 57% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 15% | 99 | 101 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 85% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 40% | 104 | 98 |
| 4 | Thunder | 60% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 37% | 101 | 85 |
| 6 | Warriors | 63% | 106 | 108 |
Monday, March 10, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 41% | 102 | 98 |
| 20 | Bobcats | 59% | 106 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 48% | 99 | 97 |
| 17 | Nets | 52% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 29% | 97 | 90 |
| 3 | Heat | 71% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 19% | 98 | 110 |
| 16 | Knicks | 81% | 110 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 47% | 99 | 98 |
| 27 | Bucks | 53% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 54% | 102 | 112 |
| 26 | Jazz | 46% | 101 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 21% | 100 | 105 |
| 2 | Clippers | 79% | 111 | 112 |
Sunday, March 9, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 54% | 95 | 88 |
| 11 | Bulls | 46% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 76% | 111 | 110 |
| 29 | Lakers | 24% | 101 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 45% | 104 | 107 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 55% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 46% | 102 | 111 |
| 25 | Celtics | 54% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 37% | 98 | 89 |
| 15 | Nets | 63% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 104 | 113 |
| 5 | Rockets | 66% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 36% | 102 | 111 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 64% | 107 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 41% | 98 | 94 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 59% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 31% | 99 | 107 |
| 6 | Warriors | 69% | 106 | 113 |
Saturday, March 8, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 49% | 101 | 107 |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 51% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 57% | 105 | 104 |
| 30 | 76ers | 43% | 103 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bobcats | 30% | 90 | 89 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 70% | 97 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 64% | 102 | 114 |
| 27 | Bucks | 36% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 13% | 92 | 112 |
| 1 | Spurs | 87% | 107 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 17% | 97 | 108 |
| 3 | Clippers | 83% | 111 | 109 |
Friday, March 7, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 43% | 88 | 85 |
| 11 | Bulls | 57% | 90 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 40% | 98 | 92 |
| 19 | Bobcats | 60% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 32% | 98 | 87 |
| 12 | Raptors | 68% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 54% | 100 | 84 |
| 26 | Celtics | 46% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 36% | 98 | 81 |
| 17 | Knicks | 64% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 26% | 103 | 101 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 74% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 35% | 97 | 104 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 65% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 105 | 98 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 62% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 31% | 104 | 126 |
| 22 | Nuggets | 69% | 111 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 40% | 97 | 86 |
| 5 | Rockets | 60% | 101 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 23% | 97 | 97 |
| 6 | Warriors | 77% | 106 | 111 |
Thursday, March 6, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 39% | 99 | 87 |
| 1 | Spurs | 61% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 57% | 105 | 122 |
| 14 | Suns | 43% | 103 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 76% | 111 | 142 |
| 27 | Lakers | 24% | 101 | 94 |