FinalWin Prob.pScore
339%99
87
161%103
111
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
87.99998.6
SAS logo SAS
112.19999.4

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

SpursHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

SpursHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIASAS
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA87
0%
111
100%
Q4 - 0:12.0SASBonner 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Daye 1 AST)87
0%
111
100%
Q4 - 0:25.0SASMills REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)87
0%
109
100%
Q4 - 0:26.0MIAMISS Cole 21' Jump Shot87
0%
109
100%
Q4 - 0:44.0SASDaye 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mills 4 AST)87
0%
109
100%
Q4 - 0:57.0SASBaynes REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)87
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 0:59.0SASMISS Joseph 6' Running Jump Shot87
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 1:06SASDaye REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)87
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 1:07MIAMISS Beasley 19' Jump Shot87
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 1:20SASDaye 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Mills 3 AST)87
0.1%
106
99.9%
Q4 - 1:27SASBonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 1:28SASMISS Joseph 19' Jump Shot87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 1:46SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 1:47MIAMISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 1:55MIABeasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 1:56SASMISS Leonard 9' Jump Shot87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 2:17MIAWade 19' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST)87
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 2:38SASGinobili 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)85
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 2:56MIADiaw STEAL (1 STL)85
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 3:11SASDuncan 9' Jump Bank Shot (23 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)85
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 3:17MIAHeat Turnover: Backcourt (T#20)85
0.1%
99
99.9%
Q4 - 3:37SASDuncan 18' Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Diaw 5 AST)85
0.5%
99
99.5%
Q4 - 4:01MIAJames 2' Reverse Layup (19 PTS) (Allen 5 AST)85
0.7%
97
99.3%
Q4 - 4:22SASDuncan 2' Layup (19 PTS) (Belinelli 3 AST)83
0.5%
97
99.5%
Q4 - 4:34SASSPURS Rebound83
0.6%
95
99.4%
Q4 - 4:35MIAMISS Wade 14' Turnaround Fadeaway Shot83
0.7%
95
99.3%
Q4 - 4:44MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)83
1.0%
95
99.0%
Q4 - 4:45SASMISS Leonard 25' 3PT Jump Shot83
0.9%
95
99.1%
Q4 - 5:08MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 1 (24 PTS)83
1.1%
95
98.9%
Q4 - 5:13MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)80
0.6%
95
99.4%
Q4 - 5:15SASMISS Leonard 4' Driving Jump Shot80
0.5%
95
99.5%
Q4 - 5:20MIALeonard STEAL (5 STL)80
0.4%
95
99.6%
Q4 - 5:31SASBelinelli Traveling Turnover (P1.T18)80
0.6%
95
99.4%
Q4 - 5:41SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)80
0.4%
95
99.6%
Q4 - 5:42MIAMISS Beasley 19' Jump Shot80
0.5%
95
99.5%
Q4 - 5:54MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)80
0.6%
95
99.4%
Q4 - 5:55SASMISS Duncan 5' Jump Shot80
0.5%
95
99.5%
Q4 - 6:02MIAJames Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P5.T18)80
0.7%
95
99.3%
Q4 - 6:18SASLeonard Dunk (11 PTS)80
0.9%
95
99.1%
Q4 - 6:21MIALeonard STEAL (4 STL)80
1.2%
93
98.8%
Q4 - 6:31SASDuncan Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T17)80
1.7%
93
98.3%
Q4 - 6:40SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)80
1.2%
93
98.8%
Q4 - 6:41MIAMISS James 17' Jump Shot80
1.3%
93
98.7%
Q4 - 7:01SASDuncan 3' Layup (17 PTS) (Diaw 4 AST)80
2.3%
93
97.7%
Q4 - 7:14MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)80
2.9%
91
97.1%
Q4 - 7:22MIAMISS James Free Throw Technical77
1.7%
91
98.3%
Q4 - 7:31SASGreen Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T16)77
1.7%
91
98.3%
Q4 - 7:38MIAChalmers Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T16)77
1.3%
91
98.7%
Q4 - 7:41SASMills Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T15)77
1.7%
91
98.3%
Q4 - 7:47SASMills Free Throw Technical (9 PTS)77
1.3%
91
98.7%
Q4 - 7:47SASMISS Mills Free Throw Technical77
1.7%
90
98.3%
Q4 - 7:47MIAWade Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T15)77
1.7%
90
98.3%
Q4 - 7:50SASLeonard Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T14)77
2.2%
90
97.8%
Q4 - 7:59SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)77
1.7%
90
98.3%
Q4 - 8:00SASMISS Diaw Free Throw 2 of 277
2.1%
90
97.9%
Q4 - 8:00SASDiaw Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)77
1.8%
90
98.2%
Q4 - 8:09SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)77
2.9%
89
97.1%
Q4 - 8:10MIAMISS Chalmers 16' Jump Shot77
3.1%
89
96.9%
Q4 - 8:16MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)77
3.7%
89
96.3%
Q4 - 8:17SASMISS Leonard 3' Driving Layup77
3.4%
89
96.6%
Q4 - 8:28SASMills REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)77
2.9%
89
97.1%
Q4 - 8:29MIAMISS James 14' Jump Shot77
3.1%
89
96.9%
Q4 - 8:40MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)77
3.7%
89
96.3%
Q4 - 8:41SASMISS Leonard 24' 3PT Jump Shot77
3.4%
89
96.6%
Q4 - 8:58MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T14)77
2.8%
89
97.2%
Q4 - 9:09SASBelinelli 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (8 PTS) (Green 3 AST)77
4.4%
89
95.6%
Q4 - 9:15SASMills REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)77
5.6%
87
94.4%
Q4 - 9:17MIAMISS Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot77
6.0%
87
94.0%
Q4 - 9:23MIACole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)77
7.0%
87
93.0%
Q4 - 9:24SASMISS Mills 26' 3PT Jump Shot77
6.5%
87
93.5%
Q4 - 9:33SASGreen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)77
5.5%
87
94.5%
Q4 - 9:33MIAMISS Beasley 6' Jump Shot77
5.9%
87
94.1%
Q4 - 9:44MIAAllen Free Throw Technical (6 PTS)77
6.9%
87
93.1%
Q4 - 9:55MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)76
5.5%
87
94.5%
Q4 - 9:57SASMISS Belinelli 24' 3PT Jump Shot76
5.1%
87
94.9%
Q4 - 10:18MIABeasley Traveling Turnover (P1.T13)76
5.1%
87
94.9%
Q4 - 10:35SASMills 27' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS)76
6.2%
87
93.8%
Q4 - 10:47SASMills REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)76
9.5%
84
90.5%
Q4 - 10:48SASMISS Mills 25' 3PT Jump Shot76
10.9%
84
89.1%
Q4 - 10:59MIABeasley 18' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Wade 7 AST)76
9.4%
84
90.6%
Q4 - 11:10SASDiaw Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)74
8.5%
84
91.5%
Q4 - 11:10SASDiaw Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)74
8.9%
83
91.1%
Q4 - 11:17MIAGreen STEAL (1 STL)74
10.3%
82
89.7%
Q4 - 11:27SASDiaw Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T13)74
12.5%
82
87.5%
Q4 - 11:38SASMills REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)74
10.2%
82
89.8%
Q4 - 11:39MIAMISS Wade 17' Jump Shot74
10.9%
82
89.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0SAS74
12.4%
82
87.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0SASSPURS Rebound74
10.2%
82
89.8%
Q3 - 0:01.0SASMISS Splitter 4' Jump Shot74
12.6%
82
87.4%
Q3 - 0:04.0MIAAllen Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)74
11.1%
82
88.9%
Q3 - 0:27.0SASMills 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)74
13.2%
82
86.8%
Q3 - 0:50.0SASGreen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)74
18.7%
79
81.3%
Q3 - 0:51.0MIAMISS James 26' 3PT Jump Shot74
19.6%
79
80.4%
Q3 - 0:59.0MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)74
21.9%
79
78.1%
Q3 - 1:01SASMISS Splitter 8' Jump Shot74
21.4%
79
78.6%
Q3 - 1:15SASMills REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)74
19.3%
79
80.7%
Q3 - 1:16SASMISS Ginobili 2' Layup74
21.4%
79
78.6%
Q3 - 1:24SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)74
19.3%
79
80.7%
Q3 - 1:25MIAMISS Beasley 14' Jump Shot74
20.2%
79
79.8%
Q3 - 1:41MIAHeat Rebound74
22.4%
79
77.6%
Q3 - 1:42SASMISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot74
21.4%
79
78.6%
Q3 - 1:50SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)74
19.3%
79
80.7%
Q3 - 1:52SASMISS Green 25' 3PT Jump Shot74
21.4%
79
78.6%
Q3 - 2:14MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)74
19.6%
79
80.4%
Q3 - 2:14MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)73
19.0%
79
81.0%
Q3 - 2:18MIABeasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)72
17.0%
79
83.0%
Q3 - 2:20SASMISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot72
16.1%
79
83.9%
Q3 - 2:34MIAAndersen 2' Driving Reverse Layup (6 PTS) (Allen 3 AST)72
14.4%
79
85.6%
Q3 - 2:56MIAJames REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)70
12.3%
79
87.7%
Q3 - 2:56SASMISS Parker 4' Running Layup70
11.7%
79
88.3%
Q3 - 3:10MIAAllen 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (James 7 AST)70
11.0%
79
89.0%
Q3 - 3:25SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)67
8.1%
79
91.9%
Q3 - 3:25SASMISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 267
8.3%
78
91.7%
Q3 - 3:41MIABosh 20' Jump Shot (21 PTS) (James 6 AST)67
7.9%
78
92.1%
Q3 - 4:07SASLeonard 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)65
7.4%
78
92.6%
Q3 - 4:16MIALeonard STEAL (3 STL)65
9.8%
75
90.2%
Q3 - 4:33SASLeonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)65
11.8%
75
88.2%
Q3 - 4:33SASLeonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)65
12.1%
74
87.9%
Q3 - 4:37SASParker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)65
13.3%
73
86.7%
Q3 - 4:38MIAMISS Chalmers 4' Driving Bank Shot65
14.0%
73
86.0%
Q3 - 4:59SASDiaw 15' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)65
15.8%
73
84.2%
Q3 - 5:10MIAJames REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)65
18.2%
71
81.8%
Q3 - 5:10MIAJames 1' Tip Shot (15 PTS)65
18.2%
71
81.8%
Q3 - 5:11MIAMISS Bosh 3' Layup63
14.5%
71
85.5%
Q3 - 5:19MIAChalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)63
16.2%
71
83.8%
Q3 - 5:20SASMISS Leonard 3PT Jump Shot63
15.4%
71
84.6%
Q3 - 5:29SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)63
13.8%
71
86.2%
Q3 - 5:30MIAMISS Wade 18' Jump Shot63
14.5%
71
85.5%
Q3 - 5:39SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T12)63
16.2%
71
83.8%
Q3 - 5:48SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)63
13.8%
71
86.2%
Q3 - 5:49MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot63
14.5%
71
85.5%
Q3 - 5:56MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)63
16.2%
71
83.8%
Q3 - 5:57SASMISS Parker 7' Jump Shot63
15.4%
71
84.6%
Q3 - 6:05MIALeonard STEAL (2 STL)63
14.4%
71
85.6%
Q3 - 6:16MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)63
16.7%
71
83.3%
Q3 - 6:17SASMISS Parker 17' Jump Shot63
15.9%
71
84.1%
Q3 - 6:36MIAJames 16' Jump Shot (13 PTS)63
14.3%
71
85.7%
Q3 - 6:49MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)61
12.7%
71
87.3%
Q3 - 6:50SASMISS Leonard 15' Jump Shot61
12.1%
71
87.9%
Q3 - 7:01SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)61
11.3%
71
88.7%
Q3 - 7:02MIAMISS Bosh 5' Jump Bank Shot61
11.8%
71
88.2%
Q3 - 7:29SASParker 18' Jump Shot (16 PTS)61
13.0%
71
87.0%
Q3 - 7:54MIAWade 19' Jump Shot (11 PTS)61
14.7%
69
85.3%
Q3 - 8:04MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)59
13.4%
69
86.6%
Q3 - 8:05SASMISS Duncan 8' Running Jump Shot59
12.8%
69
87.2%
Q3 - 8:31MIAJames Foul Turnover (P2.T8)59
11.5%
69
88.5%
Q3 - 8:41MIABattier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)59
13.4%
69
86.6%
Q3 - 8:42SASMISS Leonard 7' Turnaround Jump Shot59
12.8%
69
87.2%
Q3 - 8:56MIAWade 3' Driving Jump Shot (9 PTS)59
11.5%
69
88.5%
Q3 - 9:14SASDuncan 6' Jump Bank Shot (15 PTS) (Belinelli 2 AST)57
10.5%
69
89.5%
Q3 - 9:32MIABosh 17' Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Wade 6 AST)57
11.9%
67
88.1%
Q3 - 9:41SASDiaw Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P3.T11)55
10.5%
67
89.5%
Q3 - 9:59MIABosh Layup (17 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)55
9.1%
67
90.9%
Q3 - 10:07MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)53
8.4%
67
91.6%
Q3 - 10:08SASMISS Green 6' Jump Bank Shot53
8.0%
67
92.0%
Q3 - 10:12SASSPURS Rebound53
7.3%
67
92.7%
Q3 - 10:12SASMISS Leonard 1' Layup53
8.0%
67
92.0%
Q3 - 10:18MIAParker STEAL (2 STL)53
7.3%
67
92.7%
Q3 - 10:32SASLeonard 7' Jump Shot (4 PTS)53
8.3%
67
91.7%
Q3 - 10:46MIAWade 2' Layup (7 PTS)53
9.5%
65
90.5%
Q3 - 10:50SASDiaw Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)51
8.3%
65
91.7%
Q3 - 11:09MIAJames Foul Turnover (P1.T6)51
7.8%
65
92.2%
Q3 - 11:13SASDiaw Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)51
8.8%
65
91.2%
Q3 - 11:21SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)51
7.7%
65
92.3%
Q3 - 11:22MIAMISS Bosh 12' Turnaround Jump Shot51
8.1%
65
91.9%
Q3 - 11:43SASGreen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)51
8.8%
65
91.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA51
11.2%
62
88.8%
Q2 - 0:01.0SASDiaw 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Splitter 4 AST)51
13.3%
62
86.7%
Q2 - 0:09.0MIABeasley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Allen 2 AST)51
17.1%
59
82.9%
Q2 - 0:30.0MIAJames Free Throw Clear Path 2 of 2 (11 PTS)48
13.2%
59
86.8%
Q2 - 0:30.0MIAJames Free Throw Clear Path 1 of 2 (10 PTS)47
12.9%
59
87.1%
Q2 - 0:30.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)46
10.5%
59
89.5%
Q2 - 0:31.0SASMISS Parker 3' Layup46
10.2%
59
89.8%
Q2 - 0:44.0MIAWade 1' Driving Dunk (5 PTS) (James 5 AST)46
9.6%
59
90.4%
Q2 - 0:54.0SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)44
8.2%
59
91.8%
Q2 - 0:54.0SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)44
8.4%
58
91.6%
Q2 - 1:10MIAChalmers 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wade 5 AST)44
10.1%
57
89.9%
Q2 - 1:34SASBelinelli Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)41
7.7%
57
92.3%
Q2 - 1:34SASBelinelli Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)41
7.8%
56
92.2%
Q2 - 1:39MIAWade Traveling Turnover (P1.T5)41
9.0%
55
91.0%
Q2 - 1:49SASDuncan Foul Turnover (P2.T8)41
9.7%
55
90.3%
Q2 - 2:01SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)41
9.3%
55
90.7%
Q2 - 2:02MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot41
9.6%
55
90.4%
Q2 - 2:06MIAOden REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)41
10.4%
55
89.6%
Q2 - 2:07SASMISS Parker 4' Jump Shot41
10.0%
55
90.0%
Q2 - 2:14SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)41
9.2%
55
90.8%
Q2 - 2:15MIAMISS James 16' Jump Shot41
9.6%
55
90.4%
Q2 - 2:25SASParker Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)41
10.4%
55
89.6%
Q2 - 2:25SASParker Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)41
10.5%
54
89.5%
Q2 - 2:25MIAParker STEAL (1 STL)41
11.5%
53
88.5%
Q2 - 2:43SASSPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#7)41
12.9%
53
87.1%
Q2 - 3:08SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)41
11.9%
53
88.1%
Q2 - 3:08MIAMISS James Free Throw 2 of 241
12.1%
53
87.9%
Q2 - 3:08MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)41
12.9%
53
87.1%
Q2 - 3:10MIAChalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)40
12.1%
53
87.9%
Q2 - 3:11SASMISS Belinelli 26' 3PT Jump Shot40
11.7%
53
88.3%
Q2 - 3:26SASBelinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)40
10.7%
53
89.3%
Q2 - 3:27MIAMISS James 17' Jump Shot40
11.1%
53
88.9%
Q2 - 3:43SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)40
12.1%
53
87.9%
Q2 - 4:05MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)40
15.2%
50
84.8%
Q2 - 4:05MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)39
14.9%
50
85.1%
Q2 - 4:09MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)38
13.8%
50
86.2%
Q2 - 4:10SASMISS Parker Layup38
13.4%
50
86.6%
Q2 - 4:19SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)38
12.5%
50
87.5%
Q2 - 4:20SASMISS Parker 18' Jump Shot38
13.4%
50
86.6%
Q2 - 4:38MIAJames 2' Layup (6 PTS)38
12.4%
50
87.6%
Q2 - 4:43SASParker Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)36
11.3%
50
88.7%
Q2 - 4:59SASSPURS Rebound36
10.1%
50
89.9%
Q2 - 5:01MIAMISS Bosh 25' 3PT Jump Shot36
10.9%
50
89.1%
Q2 - 5:28SASDuncan 1' Dunk (10 PTS) (Splitter 3 AST)36
11.6%
50
88.4%
Q2 - 5:38SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)36
12.8%
48
87.2%
Q2 - 5:39MIAMISS Bosh 5' Turnaround Jump Shot36
13.2%
48
86.8%
Q2 - 5:59MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)36
14.1%
48
85.9%
Q2 - 6:00SASMISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot36
13.7%
48
86.3%
Q2 - 6:24MIAJames 5' Running Jump Shot (4 PTS)36
13.1%
48
86.9%
Q2 - 6:35SASDuncan 6' Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Mills 2 AST)34
12.1%
48
87.9%
Q2 - 6:48MIABosh 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (James 4 AST)34
13.1%
46
86.9%
Q2 - 7:08SASSplitter Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)31
11.4%
46
88.6%
Q2 - 7:08SASMISS Splitter Free Throw 1 of 231
11.7%
45
88.3%
Q2 - 7:19SASMills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)31
11.3%
45
88.7%
Q2 - 7:20MIAGreen BLOCK (3 BLK)31
11.6%
45
88.4%
Q2 - 7:34SASBelinelli 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Green 2 AST)31
12.5%
45
87.5%
Q2 - 7:42MIABosh 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Cole 2 AST)31
13.5%
43
86.5%
Q2 - 7:56SASGreen Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5)29
12.5%
43
87.5%
Q2 - 8:06MIABosh 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Allen 1 AST)29
11.6%
43
88.4%
Q2 - 8:15MIABeasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)27
10.6%
43
89.4%
Q2 - 8:16SASMISS Green 25' 3PT Jump Shot27
10.3%
43
89.7%
Q2 - 8:22SASMills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)27
9.7%
43
90.3%
Q2 - 8:24MIAMISS Wade 6' Running Jump Shot27
9.9%
43
90.1%
Q2 - 8:37SASSplitter Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)27
10.6%
43
89.4%
Q2 - 8:37SASSplitter Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)27
10.9%
42
89.1%
Q2 - 8:53MIABeasley 9' Pullup Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)27
11.6%
41
88.4%
Q2 - 9:10SASGreen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)25
11.0%
41
89.0%
Q2 - 9:15SASSplitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
10.0%
41
90.0%
Q2 - 9:16MIASplitter BLOCK (1 BLK)25
10.3%
41
89.7%
Q2 - 9:33SASBelinelli 13' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)25
11.0%
41
89.0%
Q2 - 9:41SASMills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)25
12.0%
39
88.0%
Q2 - 9:42MIAMISS Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot25
12.3%
39
87.7%
Q2 - 10:00MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)25
13.1%
39
86.9%
Q2 - 10:01SASMISS Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot25
13.1%
39
86.9%
Q2 - 10:24MIABeasley 3' Layup (4 PTS)25
12.2%
39
87.8%
Q2 - 10:28MIABeasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)23
11.3%
39
88.7%
Q2 - 10:28MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 223
10.3%
39
89.7%
Q2 - 10:28MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)23
10.9%
39
89.1%
Q2 - 10:45SASSplitter 2' Dunk (4 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)22
10.4%
39
89.6%
Q2 - 11:00MIAAndersen Foul Turnover (P1.T3)22
11.1%
37
88.9%
Q2 - 11:07MIABeasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)22
12.7%
37
87.3%
Q2 - 11:09SASMISS Mills 3PT Jump Shot22
12.3%
37
87.7%
Q2 - 11:19SASBelinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)22
11.6%
37
88.4%
Q2 - 11:20MIAMISS Allen 16' Jump Shot22
11.9%
37
88.1%
Q2 - 11:25MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)22
12.6%
37
87.4%
Q2 - 11:26MIAMISS Cole 3PT Jump Shot22
11.9%
37
88.1%
Q2 - 11:45SASGinobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)22
12.6%
37
87.4%
Q1 - 0:00.0SAS22
11.5%
37
88.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)22
11.5%
37
88.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Cole 3' Driving Layup22
11.9%
37
88.1%
Q1 - 0:08.0SASGinobili 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Mills 1 AST)22
12.8%
37
87.2%
Q1 - 0:11.0SASMills REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)22
14.2%
35
85.8%
Q1 - 0:12.0MIAMISS James 3' Layup22
14.5%
35
85.5%
Q1 - 0:28.0MIABeasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)22
15.1%
35
84.9%
Q1 - 0:29.0SASMISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot22
14.8%
35
85.2%
Q1 - 0:40.0MIAAndersen 2' Dunk (4 PTS) (James 3 AST)22
14.2%
35
85.8%
Q1 - 1:00SASDiaw Free Throw 1 of 1 (8 PTS)20
12.8%
35
87.2%
Q1 - 1:17MIABeasley 2' Running Layup (2 PTS) (Cole 1 AST)20
15.7%
32
84.3%
Q1 - 1:35SASMills 2' Finger Roll Layup (2 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)18
14.2%
32
85.8%
Q1 - 1:55MIAAndersen Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)18
15.7%
30
84.3%
Q1 - 1:55MIAAndersen Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)17
15.3%
30
84.7%
Q1 - 2:08SASSplitter 3' Layup (2 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)16
14.6%
30
85.4%
Q1 - 2:13SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)16
15.9%
28
84.1%
Q1 - 2:14MIAMISS James 2' Reverse Layup16
16.2%
28
83.8%
Q1 - 2:24SASSplitter Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)16
17.0%
28
83.0%
Q1 - 2:36SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)16
15.9%
28
84.1%
Q1 - 2:37MIAMISS James 14' Jump Bank Shot16
16.2%
28
83.8%
Q1 - 2:57SASDuncan 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Splitter 1 AST)16
17.0%
28
83.0%
Q1 - 3:16SASSplitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
18.5%
26
81.5%
Q1 - 3:17MIAAndersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)16
20.0%
26
80.0%
Q1 - 3:17MIAMISS Andersen 1' Tip Shot16
18.9%
26
81.1%
Q1 - 3:18MIAMISS Chalmers 2' Running Layup16
18.9%
26
81.1%
Q1 - 3:32SASParker 1' Driving Layup (10 PTS)16
20.0%
26
80.0%
Q1 - 3:41MIAChalmers Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)16
21.3%
24
78.7%
Q1 - 3:55SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)16
22.9%
24
77.1%
Q1 - 3:55SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)16
23.3%
23
76.7%
Q1 - 4:09MIAAllen 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (James 2 AST)16
24.5%
22
75.5%
Q1 - 4:25SASGinobili 3' Running Layup (2 PTS) (Belinelli 1 AST)14
23.1%
22
76.9%
Q1 - 4:37SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)14
24.5%
20
75.5%
Q1 - 4:38MIAMISS James 16' Step Back Jump Shot14
25.0%
20
75.0%
Q1 - 4:54SASDiaw 5' Jump Hook Shot (5 PTS)14
26.3%
20
73.7%
Q1 - 5:12MIAJames 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)14
28.1%
18
71.9%
Q1 - 5:32MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)12
26.6%
18
73.4%
Q1 - 5:33MIAMISS Battier 3PT Jump Shot12
25.4%
18
74.6%
Q1 - 5:44SASDuncan Foul Turnover (P1.T1)12
26.6%
18
73.4%
Q1 - 5:57MIABosh Dunk (8 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)12
24.9%
18
75.1%
Q1 - 6:20SASParker 2' Driving Layup (8 PTS)10
23.8%
18
76.2%
Q1 - 6:25MIALeonard STEAL (1 STL)10
25.1%
16
74.9%
Q1 - 6:26MIABosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)10
26.8%
16
73.2%
Q1 - 6:28MIAMISS Wade 4' Jump Shot10
25.6%
16
74.4%
Q1 - 6:40SASParker 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)10
26.8%
16
73.2%
Q1 - 7:04MIAWade 1' Layup (2 PTS) (James 1 AST)10
28.3%
14
71.7%
Q1 - 7:07MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)8
27.0%
14
73.0%
Q1 - 7:08MIAMISS Chalmers 4' Running Jump Shot8
25.8%
14
74.2%
Q1 - 7:24MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
27.0%
14
73.0%
Q1 - 7:25SASMISS Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot8
26.5%
14
73.5%
Q1 - 7:50SASLeonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)8
25.3%
14
74.7%
Q1 - 7:51MIAGreen BLOCK (2 BLK)8
25.8%
14
74.2%
Q1 - 7:56SASParker 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)8
27.0%
14
73.0%
Q1 - 8:02SASDiaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)8
28.5%
12
71.5%
Q1 - 8:03SASMISS Parker 17' Pullup Jump Shot8
29.6%
12
70.4%
Q1 - 8:25MIAChalmers 2' Layup (2 PTS)8
28.4%
12
71.6%
Q1 - 8:37SASDuncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)6
27.1%
12
72.9%
Q1 - 8:37SASDuncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)6
27.4%
11
72.6%
Q1 - 8:52MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)6
28.4%
10
71.6%
Q1 - 8:52MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)5
28.2%
10
71.8%
Q1 - 9:15SASGreen 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)4
27.4%
10
72.6%
Q1 - 9:28SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)4
30.2%
7
69.8%
Q1 - 9:29MIAMISS James 16' Jump Shot4
30.7%
7
69.3%
Q1 - 9:44SASParker 5' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Green 1 AST)4
31.8%
7
68.2%
Q1 - 9:59MIABosh 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)4
33.2%
5
66.8%
Q1 - 10:18SASLeonard 12' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)2
32.0%
5
68.0%
Q1 - 10:35MIABosh 9' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)2
33.3%
3
66.7%
Q1 - 10:46MIAHeat Rebound0
32.0%
3
68.0%
Q1 - 10:46SASMISS Green 2' Layup0
31.5%
3
68.5%
Q1 - 10:52SASGreen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
30.3%
3
69.7%
Q1 - 10:53MIADuncan BLOCK (1 BLK)0
30.8%
3
69.2%
Q1 - 11:06SASDiaw 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)0
31.7%
3
68.3%
Q1 - 11:27SASDuncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
34.8%
0
65.2%
Q1 - 11:28MIAGreen BLOCK (1 BLK)0
35.2%
0
64.8%
Q1 - 11:41MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)0
36.2%
0
63.8%
Q1 - 11:42MIAMISS Bosh 18' Jump Shot0
35.2%
0
64.8%
Q1 - 12:00SASJump Ball Duncan vs. Bosh: Tip to Chalmers0
36.2%
0
63.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.99 49.4%
SAS
1.19 59.7%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
17
30
57%
SAS
19
30
63%
Midrange
MIA
13
36
36%
SAS
12
26
46%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
4
6.0
13
31%
46%
SAS
9
13.5
23
39%
59%
Free Throws
MIA
15
18
83%
SAS
22
26
85%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
C. Bosh2471%12.0 / 17
L. James1945%9.5 / 21
D. Wade1650%8.0 / 16
M. Beasley1155%5.5 / 10
R. Allen660%3.0 / 5
C. Andersen675%3.0 / 4
M. Chalmers536%2.5 / 7
S. Battier0-0.0 / 1
N. Cole0-0.0 / 4
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. Duncan2377%11.5 / 15
T. Parker1750%8.5 / 17
B. Diaw16114%8.0 / 7
K. Leonard1139%5.5 / 14
P. Mills975%4.5 / 6
M. Belinelli867%4.0 / 6
T. Splitter758%3.5 / 6
D. Green638%3.0 / 8
M. Ginobili650%3.0 / 6
A. Daye6150%3.0 / 2
M. Bonner2100%1.0 / 1
C. Joseph0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
79
+8
-20
87
SAS
82
+10
-17
92
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.99 49.4%
SAS
1.19 59.7%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
110.7
110.3
MIA 87.9 +24.2
SAS 112.1
Pace
91.5
95.2
MIA 98.6
SAS 99.4 +0.8
Avg. Poss. Time
15.8
15.1
MIA 14.6
SAS 14.5 +0.1
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
55.4%
53.7%
MIA 45.6%
SAS 56.3% +10.7%
TO %
15.4%
14.7%
MIA 19.5%
SAS 16.6% +2.9%
ORB %
20.6%
22.8%
MIA 17.8%
SAS 22.2% +4.4%
FTrt
30.0
24.0
MIA 22.8
SAS 32.9 +10.1
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
58.8%
62.1%
MIA 73.5%
SAS 75.0% +1.5%
STL %
9.7%
7.7%
MIA 10.1% +1.0%
SAS 9.1%
BLK %
8.1%
7.7%
MIA 7.1%
SAS 7.6% +0.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.51 and 2.51.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
57.5%
56.0%
MIA 49.4%
SAS 59.7% +10.3%
Rim FG%
66.7%
63.1%
MIA 56.7%
SAS 63.3% +6.6%
Mid FG%
42.8%
40.6%
MIA 36.1%
SAS 46.2% +10.1%
3P %
36.4%
39.7%
MIA 30.8%
SAS 39.1% +8.3%
FT %
76.0%
78.6%
MIA 83.3%
SAS 84.6% +1.3%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
38.3%
36.5%
MIA 38.0%
SAS 38.0%
Mid Att. %
32.5%
37.8%
MIA 45.6%
SAS 32.9% +12.7%
3P Att. %
29.2%
25.7%
MIA 16.5%
SAS 29.1% +12.7%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.71 and 2.71.
Game TotalsMIASAS
Possessions9999
Possession Minutes24.123.9
Points87111
Rebounds3645
Assists2530
Steals109
Blocks45
Turnovers (Team)20 (1)17 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)8 (0)8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)28 (2)37 (2)
Field Goals34-7940-79
At-the-Rim FG17-3019-30
Midrange FG13-3612-26
2-Point FG30-6631-56
3-Point FG4-139-23
Free Throws15-1822-26
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
F · 6'9" 250 · 29
38.1
19
45%
8
7
2
0
5
5
3
5
7-9
78%
6-15
40%
0-3
0%
G · 6'4" 220 · 32
36.1
16
50%
3
7
1
0
2
2
0
3
2-3
67%
7-14
50%
0-1
0%
C · 6'11" 235 · 30
34.5
24
71%
7
1
2
0
3
0
2
5
3-3
100%
9-14
64%
1-2
50%
G · 6'2" 190 · 28
26.9
5
36%
2
3
2
1
4
5
0
2
0-0
-
1-6
17%
1-1
100%
F · 6'8" 220 · 35
16.1
0
0%
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-1
0%
G · 6'5" 205 · 39
21.7
6
60%
1
5
0
1
3
1
0
1
1-1
100%
1-2
50%
1-3
33%
F · 6'9" 235 · 25
21.0
11
55%
6
0
1
1
1
1
1
5
0-0
-
4-9
44%
1-1
100%
G · 6'2" 175 · 25
17.8
0
0%
1
2
0
0
1
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-3
0%
0-1
0%
F-C · 6'10" 245 · 36
17.0
6
75%
6
0
1
0
1
4
2
4
2-2
100%
2-3
67%
0-0
-
C · 7'0" 273 · 26
5.7
0
0%
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 195 · 28
1.7
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
F · 6'8" 235 · 34
1.7
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
F · 6'10" 235 · 35
1.7
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
#14 · G · 6'6" 209 · 26
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#22 · G-F · 6'8" 218 · 33
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
87
49%
36
25
10
4
20
0
8
28
15-18
83%
30-66
45%
4-13
31%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.