Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Raptors | 49% | 96 | 78 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Bobcats | 42% | 99 | 70 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Mavericks | 73% | 100 | 100 |
 | 30 | Pistons | 27% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Bucks | 51% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Thunder | 56% | 98 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Bulls | 67% | 98 | 111 |
 | 20 | Timberwolves | 33% | 92 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Lakers | 70% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Heat | 74% | 103 | 106 |
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Monday, January 9, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 43% | 98 | 87 |
| 24 | Raptors | 57% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | 76ers | 66% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Nets | 36% | 91 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 22% | 97 | 87 |
 | 13 | Knicks | 78% | 107 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 13% | 86 | 68 |
| 2 | Bulls | 87% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 17% | 93 | 94 | |
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Sunday, January 8, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 54% | 100 | 93 |
| 28 | Wizards | 46% | 99 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Magic | 72% | 100 | 104 |
| 26 | Kings | 28% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Spurs | 31% | 95 | 96 |
| 5 | Thunder | 69% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 32% | 94 | 93 |
| 15 | Suns | 68% | 100 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 22% | 94 | 78 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 78% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 27% | 92 | 82 |
| 3 | Lakers | 73% | 100 | 90 |
Saturday, January 7, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls | 53% | 92 | 94 |
| 12 | Hawks | 47% | 91 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 24% | 92 | 77 |
| 16 | Pacers | 76% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heat | 77% | 100 | 101 |
| 24 | Nets | 23% | 90 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 59% | 101 | 103 |
| 26 | Pistons | 41% | 98 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 24% | 92 | 62 |
| 11 | 76ers | 76% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 58% | 102 | 98 |
| 18 | Rockets | 42% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 48% | 101 | 117 |
| 14 | Spurs | 52% | 102 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 16% | 88 | 81 | |
| 8 | Mavericks | 84% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 27% | 95 | 86 |
| 10 | Clippers | 73% | 103 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 46% | 98 | 88 |
| 25 | Warriors | 54% | 99 | 87 |
Friday, January 6, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 40% | 95 | 97 | |
| 21 | Raptors | 60% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 24% | 93 | 73 |
| 11 | 76ers | 76% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Knicks | 65% | 102 | 99 |
| 30 | Wizards | 35% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 62% | 100 | 102 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 38% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 32% | 88 | 87 |
 | 9 | Celtics | 68% | 95 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls | 45% | 92 | 97 |
| 4 | Magic | 55% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 70% | 102 | 96 |
| 27 | Hornets | 30% | 95 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 28% | 97 | 94 |
| 6 | Thunder | 72% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 41% | 99 | 98 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 59% | 102 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 49% | 97 | 85 |
| 22 | Jazz | 51% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 102 | 77 |
| 15 | Suns | 48% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 21% | 92 | 90 |
| 5 | Lakers | 79% | 103 | 97 |
Thursday, January 5, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 47% | 97 | 116 |
| 11 | Hawks | 53% | 98 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 53% | 99 | 71 |
| 15 | Spurs | 47% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 63% | 99 | 100 |
| 28 | Kings | 37% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 42% | 99 | 96 |
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 101 | 107 |
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 40% | 97 | 77 |
| 23 | Raptors | 60% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 16% | 86 | 85 |
| 4 | Magic | 84% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 23% | 87 | 70 | |
| 11 | Celtics | 77% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 15% | 95 | 118 |
| 13 | Knicks | 85% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 25% | 94 | 83 |
| 1 | Heat | 75% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bulls | 66% | 97 | 99 |
| 24 | Pistons | 34% | 91 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 65% | 97 | 101 |
| 28 | Hornets | 35% | 92 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Grizzlies | 39% | 98 | 90 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 61% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 28% | 96 | 89 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 72% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Warriors | 33% | 94 | 95 |
| 16 | Spurs | 67% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 13% | 96 | 83 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 87% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 28% | 99 | 89 |
| 9 | Clippers | 72% | 106 | 117 |
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bobcats | 33% | 95 | 101 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 67% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 27% | 89 | 74 |
| 2 | Bulls | 73% | 97 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 42% | 94 | 96 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 58% | 97 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 102 | 103 |
| 8 | Thunder | 54% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 54% | 98 | 73 |
| 21 | Jazz | 46% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 29% | 94 | 99 |
| 6 | Lakers | 71% | 102 | 108 |
Monday, January 2, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 38% | 96 | 91 |
| 18 | Suns | 62% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 18% | 87 | 92 |
| 8 | Celtics | 82% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 63% | 97 | 108 |
| 26 | Nets | 37% | 92 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 18% | 95 | 90 |
| 12 | Knicks | 82% | 107 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 32% | 95 | 100 |
| 1 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 64% | 98 | 78 |
| 23 | Pistons | 36% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 66% | 104 | 96 |
| 19 | Timberwolves | 34% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 44% | 100 | 87 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 56% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 37% | 100 | 86 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 63% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 35% | 94 | 90 | |
| 21 | Jazz | 65% | 99 | 94 |
Sunday, January 1, 2012
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 70% | 95 | 94 |
| 30 | Wizards | 30% | 88 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 17% | 90 | 96 |
| 2 | Magic | 83% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bobcats | 13% | 92 | 90 |
| 1 | Heat | 87% | 107 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 47% | 95 | 82 | |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 53% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 69% | 108 | 82 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 31% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 26% | 93 | 64 |
| 3 | Bulls | 74% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 38% | 100 | 90 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 62% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 52% | 93 | 80 | |
| 28 | Kings | 48% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 103 | 88 |
| 9 | Clippers | 56% | 105 | 93 |
Saturday, December 31, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 42% | 101 | 89 |
| 7 | Lakers | 58% | 103 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 57% | 97 | 88 |
| 26 | Pistons | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 47% | 97 | 84 |
| 17 | Rockets | 53% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Suns | 23% | 93 | 97 |
| 5 | Thunder | 77% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 60% | 100 | 114 |
| 25 | Kings | 40% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 19% | 93 | 89 |
| 10 | Spurs | 81% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 49% | 99 | 107 |
| 20 | Warriors | 51% | 100 | 79 |
Friday, December 30, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Magic | 65% | 99 | 100 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 35% | 94 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 29% | 90 | 91 |
| 17 | Pacers | 71% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 23% | 91 | 85 |
| 10 | Celtics | 77% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 24% | 89 | 98 | |
| 13 | Hawks | 76% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 34% | 93 | 93 |
| 15 | Grizzlies | 66% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Suns | 47% | 92 | 93 |
| 22 | Hornets | 53% | 93 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 108 | 103 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 28% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 26% | 90 | 81 |
| 16 | Bucks | 74% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 21% | 95 | 86 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 79% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 59% | 104 | 99 |
| 24 | Jazz | 41% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 38% | 97 | 114 |
| 7 | Clippers | 62% | 101 | 101 |
Thursday, December 29, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 21% | 90 | 78 | |
| 7 | Magic | 79% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 49% | 97 | 85 |
| 17 | Rockets | 51% | 98 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 43% | 100 | 102 |
| 3 | Thunder | 57% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bulls | 71% | 97 | 108 |
| 28 | Kings | 29% | 90 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 34% | 103 | 102 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 28% | 94 | 82 |
| 6 | Lakers | 72% | 102 | 99 |
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 57% | 96 | 90 |
| 23 | Raptors | 43% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 72% | 104 | 96 |
| 30 | Bobcats | 28% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 91 | 83 |
| 18 | Hawks | 68% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 40% | 94 | 105 |
| 20 | Pistons | 60% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 54% | 100 | 98 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 46% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 60% | 96 | 78 |
| 27 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 45% | 100 | 90 |
| 8 | Spurs | 55% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 17% | 95 | 100 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 83% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 47% | 100 | 103 |
| 16 | Suns | 53% | 101 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 64% | 104 | 78 |
| 26 | Warriors | 36% | 99 | 92 |