Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 5, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 21 | SuperSonics | 46% | 90 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Raptors | 62% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Celtics | 63% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Bucks | 32% | 92 | 86 |
| 8 | Nets | 68% | 98 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Heat | 51% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 27 | Magic | 29% | 92 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | Hornets | 65% | 95 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Knicks | 39% | 93 | 81 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Timberwolves | 24% | 94 | 112 |
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Thursday, December 4, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Lakers | 45% | 106 | 114 |
 | 5 | Mavericks | 55% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Bulls | 26% | 91 | 82 |
| 10 | 76ers | 74% | 99 | 83 |
Wednesday, December 3, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 32% | 91 | 96 |
| 5 | Nets | 68% | 97 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 57% | 90 | 95 |
| 24 | Raptors | 43% | 88 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 19% | 86 | 73 |
 | 4 | Pistons | 81% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 22% | 92 | 91 |
| 8 | Hornets | 78% | 102 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 31% | 88 | 101 |
| 12 | Rockets | 69% | 94 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 41% | 96 | 90 |
| 3 | Spurs | 59% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 52% | 91 | 95 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 45% | 94 | 87 |
| 21 | SuperSonics | 55% | 95 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 28 | Cavaliers | 37% | 98 | 80 |
| 29 | Clippers | 63% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 39% | 97 | 117 |
| 20 | Warriors | 61% | 100 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 49% | 94 | 92 |
| 22 | Suns | 51% | 95 | 79 |
Tuesday, December 2, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 27% | 93 | 103 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 73% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 20% | 96 | 72 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 80% | 106 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 43% | 98 | 106 |
| 23 | Hawks | 57% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 64% | 99 | 100 | |
| 25 | Magic | 36% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 26% | 83 | 95 |
| 10 | 76ers | 74% | 92 | 88 |
Monday, December 1, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 59% | 102 | 87 |
| 27 | Bulls | 41% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 41% | 95 | 96 |
| 15 | Celtics | 59% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistons | 56% | 94 | 79 |
| 17 | Knicks | 44% | 92 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 52% | 92 | 84 | |
| 21 | Jazz | 48% | 91 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 51% | 91 | 89 |
| 23 | Suns | 49% | 90 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 102 | 83 |
| 30 | Clippers | 24% | 93 | 91 |
Sunday, November 30, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pacers | 42% | 94 | 77 |
| 6 | Lakers | 58% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 31% | 94 | 92 | |
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 100 | 105 |
Saturday, November 29, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 55% | 95 | 74 | |
| 20 | Knicks | 45% | 93 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 54% | 94 | 89 |
| 17 | Warriors | 46% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 51% | 103 | 98 |
| 30 | Clippers | 49% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 49% | 92 | 88 |
| 21 | SuperSonics | 51% | 93 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 37% | 94 | 94 |
| 13 | Bucks | 63% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 34% | 97 | 88 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 66% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 58% | 99 | 122 |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 42% | 97 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 43% | 88 | 66 |
| 25 | Heat | 57% | 90 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pistons | 62% | 96 | 80 |
| 26 | Wizards | 38% | 92 | 69 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 28% | 89 | 86 |
| 12 | 76ers | 72% | 96 | 98 |
Friday, November 28, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 48% | 97 | 87 |
| 9 | Lakers | 52% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| 16 | Celtics | 57% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Heat | 41% | 93 | 83 |
| 23 | Hawks | 59% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 47% | 90 | 87 |
| 27 | Magic | 53% | 91 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 17% | 87 | 88 |
| 4 | Pistons | 83% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 36% | 85 | 77 |
| 3 | Pacers | 64% | 89 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 45% | 95 | 102 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 55% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 54% | 104 | 103 |
| 22 | Nuggets | 46% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 41% | 96 | 81 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 41% | 95 | 92 |
| 19 | Suns | 59% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 30% | 94 | 74 |
| 1 | Kings | 70% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 47% | 91 | 93 | |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 92 | 97 |
Thursday, November 27, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 69% | 99 | 102 | |
| 30 | Clippers | 31% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 21% | 85 | 70 |
| 3 | Pacers | 79% | 95 | 93 |
Wednesday, November 26, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 52% | 92 | 86 |
| 11 | 76ers | 48% | 91 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 58% | 94 | 94 |
| 29 | Magic | 42% | 91 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 39% | 88 | 99 |
| 23 | Hawks | 61% | 91 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Cavaliers | 22% | 90 | 72 |
| 7 | Hornets | 78% | 100 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 34% | 90 | 97 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 66% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 52% | 93 | 76 |
| 17 | Jazz | 48% | 92 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 60% | 103 | 90 |
| 21 | Suns | 40% | 100 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 15% | 93 | 99 |
| 8 | Lakers | 85% | 106 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 11% | 87 | 98 |
| 3 | Spurs | 89% | 102 | 109 |
Tuesday, November 25, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 45% | 93 | 93 | |
| 13 | SuperSonics | 55% | 95 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 30% | 92 | 81 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 98 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 24% | 98 | 89 |
| 2 | Kings | 76% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 47% | 98 | 80 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 53% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 14% | 97 | 98 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 86% | 110 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 39% | 95 | 91 |
| 11 | Bucks | 61% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hornets | 63% | 97 | 87 | |
| 24 | Heat | 37% | 93 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 39% | 86 | 75 |
| 7 | Pacers | 61% | 89 | 98 |
Monday, November 24, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pistons | 57% | 95 | 94 |
| 23 | Hawks | 43% | 93 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 36% | 89 | 94 |
| 18 | Celtics | 64% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 64% | 94 | 89 |
| 25 | Magic | 36% | 90 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 66% | 100 | 105 |
| 30 | Clippers | 34% | 95 | 90 |
Sunday, November 23, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 26% | 99 | 89 |
| 3 | Lakers | 74% | 107 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 32% | 97 | 85 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 68% | 103 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 14% | 95 | 99 |
| 2 | Kings | 86% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 96 | 72 |
| 20 | Warriors | 56% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 38% | 93 | 81 | |
| 5 | Pistons | 62% | 96 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 53% | 94 | 82 |
| 25 | Raptors | 47% | 93 | 62 |
Saturday, November 22, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 23% | 81 | 81 |
| 8 | Nets | 77% | 90 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 25% | 91 | 98 |
| 16 | Suns | 75% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nuggets | 13% | 95 | 101 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 87% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 23% | 93 | 91 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 77% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 48% | 92 | 88 |
| 21 | Knicks | 52% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 37% | 93 | 83 |
| 24 | Hawks | 63% | 98 | 92 |