Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Timberwolves | 60% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Heat | 29% | 99 | 74 |
 | 4 | Thunder | 71% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Mavericks | 19% | 95 | 83 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Lakers | 30% | 104 | 95 |
Saturday, January 16, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Bucks | 30% | 99 | 105 |
 | 13 | Hornets | 70% | 106 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Nets | 21% | 98 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Celtics | 55% | 106 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Pistons | 34% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Knicks | 38% | 98 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 30% | 97 | 82 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, January 15, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 35% | 101 | 118 |
| 8 | Pacers | 65% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 21% | 100 | 93 |
| 4 | Thunder | 79% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 21% | 102 | 103 |
| 6 | Celtics | 79% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 107 | 116 |
| 29 | Nets | 37% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 47% | 103 | 83 |
 | 12 | Bulls | 53% | 104 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 49% | 106 | 107 |
 | 21 | Pelicans | 51% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 59% | 105 | 101 |
| 25 | Bucks | 41% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 54% | 103 | 98 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 46% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 3 | Cavaliers | 55% | 108 | 91 |
| 9 | Rockets | 45% | 106 | 77 |
Thursday, January 14, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Raptors | 59% | 104 | 106 |
 | 24 | Magic | 41% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 75% | 107 | 115 |
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 44% | 99 | 101 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 56% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 36% | 99 | 95 |
| 1 | Spurs | 64% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 41% | 101 | 103 |
| 18 | Jazz | 59% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 12% | 100 | 98 |
| 2 | Warriors | 88% | 116 | 116 |
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 49% | 105 | 84 |
| 15 | Hornets | 51% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 32% | 100 | 101 |
| 18 | Wizards | 68% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 56% | 105 | 104 |
| 29 | Nets | 44% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 41% | 102 | 94 |
| 7 | Celtics | 59% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 25% | 102 | 104 |
| 6 | Rockets | 75% | 111 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 27% | 103 | 89 |
| 4 | Thunder | 73% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 78% | 113 | 110 |
| 24 | Nuggets | 22% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 44% | 100 | 85 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 36% | 108 | 109 |
| 20 | Kings | 64% | 113 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 31% | 100 | 90 |
| 5 | Clippers | 69% | 106 | 104 |
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 25% | 100 | 97 |
| 10 | Pacers | 75% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 104 | 109 |
| 15 | Pistons | 36% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 55% | 107 | 114 |
| 21 | Knicks | 45% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 47% | 102 | 107 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 53% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 54% | 103 | 101 |
| 26 | Bucks | 46% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 72% | 110 | 101 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 28% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 60% | 107 | 110 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 40% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 59% | 110 | 91 |
| 28 | Lakers | 41% | 106 | 95 |
Monday, January 11, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 85% | 107 | 106 |
| 29 | Nets | 15% | 93 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 40% | 102 | 114 |
| 13 | Bulls | 60% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 22% | 100 | 103 |
| 2 | Warriors | 78% | 110 | 111 |
Sunday, January 10, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 31% | 104 | 111 |
| 5 | Clippers | 69% | 111 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 57% | 107 | 93 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 43% | 104 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 89% | 111 | 95 |
| 30 | 76ers | 11% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 49% | 100 | 98 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 51% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 47% | 105 | 103 |
| 10 | Rockets | 53% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 37% | 101 | 88 |
| 19 | Knicks | 63% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 47% | 103 | 92 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 53% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 63% | 111 | 110 |
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 55% | 102 | 86 |
| 28 | Lakers | 45% | 100 | 74 |
Saturday, January 9, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 30% | 102 | 83 |
| 5 | Clippers | 70% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 43% | 103 | 105 |
| 9 | Hawks | 57% | 106 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 49% | 103 | 105 |
| 24 | Magic | 51% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 22% | 99 | 89 |
| 15 | Pistons | 78% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 75% | 107 | 108 |
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 47% | 97 | 83 |
| 22 | Jazz | 53% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 64% | 113 | 128 |
| 20 | Kings | 36% | 108 | 116 |
Friday, January 8, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 51% | 104 | 97 |
| 16 | Wizards | 49% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 54% | 104 | 83 |
| 28 | Nets | 46% | 102 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nuggets | 34% | 97 | 84 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 66% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 71% | 107 | 125 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 29% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 51% | 106 | 91 |
| 17 | Pelicans | 49% | 105 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 58% | 105 | 95 |
| 25 | Bucks | 42% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 16% | 94 | 99 |
| 1 | Spurs | 84% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 63% | 106 | 103 |
| 27 | Suns | 37% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 67% | 111 | 128 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 80% | 114 | 117 |
| 29 | Lakers | 20% | 102 | 113 |
Thursday, January 7, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 76% | 108 | 126 |
| 30 | 76ers | 24% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 44% | 103 | 92 |
| 12 | Bulls | 56% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 29% | 99 | 94 |
| 6 | Rockets | 71% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 30% | 105 | 115 |
| 18 | Kings | 70% | 113 | 118 |
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 31% | 99 | 98 |
| 11 | Heat | 69% | 105 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 58% | 103 | 95 |
| 26 | Magic | 42% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 106 | 121 |
| 16 | Wizards | 37% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 38% | 103 | 99 |
| 8 | Celtics | 62% | 108 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Raptors | 66% | 107 | 91 |
| 28 | Nets | 34% | 101 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nuggets | 43% | 104 | 78 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 57% | 107 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 40% | 105 | 100 |
| 17 | Pelicans | 60% | 108 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 16% | 89 | 98 |
| 1 | Spurs | 84% | 102 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 62% | 108 | 102 |
| 27 | Suns | 38% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 31% | 100 | 94 |
| 4 | Thunder | 69% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 61% | 107 | 109 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 103 | 98 |
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 32% | 101 | 107 |
| 10 | Hawks | 68% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 27% | 97 | 106 |
| 14 | Bulls | 73% | 106 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 33% | 107 | 116 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 67% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 77% | 112 | 109 |
| 29 | Lakers | 23% | 102 | 88 |
Monday, January 4, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 29% | 99 | 100 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 71% | 107 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 64% | 104 | 99 |
| 30 | 76ers | 36% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 71% | 110 | 103 |
| 28 | Nets | 29% | 103 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 35% | 102 | 89 |
| 14 | Pistons | 65% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 54% | 102 | 100 |
| 18 | Heat | 46% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 80% | 104 | 123 |
| 26 | Bucks | 20% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 32% | 107 | 116 |
| 5 | Thunder | 68% | 113 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 52% | 103 | 93 |
| 21 | Jazz | 48% | 102 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 53% | 102 | 91 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 101 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 28% | 102 | 101 |
| 2 | Warriors | 72% | 110 | 111 |