Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, March 13, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 91 |
 | 19 | Hornets | 53% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Magic | 36% | 99 | 88 |
 | 20 | Celtics | 64% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Heat | 31% | 98 | 92 |
 | 6 | Raptors | 69% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Timberwolves | 26% | 101 | 99 |
 | 11 | Thunder | 74% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Mavericks | 49% | 105 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Pistons | 31% | 99 | 99 |
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Bucks | 36% | 94 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 12 | Jazz | 48% | 98 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Knicks | 32% | 97 | 101 |
 | 27 | Lakers | 68% | 104 | 94 |
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 35% | 99 | 113 |
| 18 | Hornets | 65% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 67% | 100 | 104 |
| 29 | 76ers | 33% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Grizzlies | 61% | 101 | 92 |
| 21 | Celtics | 39% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Nets | 36% | 95 | 98 |
| 20 | Heat | 64% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 28% | 94 | 91 |
| 19 | Bucks | 72% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 47% | 104 | 120 |
| 9 | Thunder | 53% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 62% | 106 | 102 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 38% | 102 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 36% | 101 | 97 |
| 17 | Suns | 64% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 13% | 96 | 98 |
| 1 | Warriors | 87% | 111 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 49% | 104 | 100 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 105 | 105 |
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 34% | 94 | 86 |
| 19 | Pacers | 66% | 100 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Pelicans | 45% | 101 | 111 |
| 23 | Nets | 55% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 56% | 106 | 127 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 44% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 34% | 100 | 107 |
| 3 | Spurs | 66% | 106 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 15% | 86 | 82 |
| 13 | Jazz | 85% | 101 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 53% | 105 | 85 |
| 27 | Lakers | 47% | 104 | 93 |
Monday, March 9, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 49% | 96 | 95 |
| 16 | Hornets | 51% | 97 | 69 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 28% | 98 | 105 |
| 10 | Hawks | 72% | 106 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 43% | 99 | 100 |
| 22 | Heat | 57% | 102 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Grizzlies | 58% | 97 | 101 |
| 15 | Bulls | 42% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 45% | 98 | 114 |
| 19 | Bucks | 55% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 27% | 98 | 78 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 73% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 64% | 108 | 98 |
| 13 | Suns | 36% | 103 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 29% | 99 | 76 |
| 6 | Clippers | 71% | 107 | 89 |
Sunday, March 8, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 27% | 94 | 105 |
| 3 | Spurs | 73% | 103 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 30% | 101 | 98 |
| 1 | Warriors | 70% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jazz | 51% | 98 | 95 |
| 24 | Nets | 49% | 97 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hornets | 48% | 98 | 108 |
| 22 | Pistons | 52% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 58% | 104 | 98 |
| 28 | Magic | 42% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 45% | 104 | 104 |
| 8 | Thunder | 55% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 63% | 107 | 100 |
| 27 | Lakers | 37% | 102 | 93 |
Saturday, March 7, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grizzlies | 55% | 99 | 89 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 45% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 22% | 102 | 79 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 78% | 112 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 37% | 96 | 109 |
| 21 | Heat | 63% | 101 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 66% | 99 | 92 |
| 30 | Knicks | 34% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 71% | 101 | 84 |
| 29 | 76ers | 29% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 105 | 113 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 37% | 100 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 43% | 95 | 85 |
| 20 | Bucks | 57% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 63% | 108 | 114 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 37% | 103 | 100 |
Friday, March 6, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Raptors | 55% | 101 | 94 |
| 18 | Hornets | 45% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 44% | 96 | 84 |
| 17 | Pacers | 56% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 48% | 100 | 114 |
| 28 | Magic | 52% | 101 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jazz | 66% | 96 | 89 |
| 29 | 76ers | 34% | 91 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 53% | 104 | 97 |
| 7 | Hawks | 47% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 52% | 105 | 108 |
| 23 | Nets | 48% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 28% | 99 | 93 |
| 5 | Rockets | 72% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lakers | 23% | 94 | 90 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 77% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 44% | 103 | 104 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 56% | 105 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 42% | 95 | 97 |
| 14 | Wizards | 58% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 21% | 97 | 111 |
| 3 | Spurs | 79% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 19% | 97 | 89 |
| 1 | Warriors | 81% | 110 | 104 |
Thursday, March 5, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 39% | 99 | 105 |
| 11 | Bulls | 61% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 40% | 102 | 75 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 106 | 94 |
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 16% | 90 | 82 |
| 14 | Pacers | 84% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 61% | 104 | 105 |
| 28 | Magic | 39% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jazz | 46% | 98 | 84 |
| 18 | Celtics | 54% | 100 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 38% | 96 | 115 |
| 19 | Nets | 62% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 47% | 104 | 120 |
| 9 | Raptors | 53% | 105 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 39% | 96 | 102 |
| 5 | Rockets | 61% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 39% | 103 | 100 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 61% | 107 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 44% | 101 | 85 |
| 24 | Pelicans | 56% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 19% | 93 | 118 |
| 11 | Thunder | 81% | 105 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lakers | 28% | 96 | 94 |
| 16 | Heat | 72% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 16% | 93 | 85 |
| 2 | Spurs | 84% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 15% | 94 | 93 |
| 1 | Warriors | 85% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 104 | 98 |
| 4 | Clippers | 62% | 108 | 93 |
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 57% | 100 | 124 |
| 30 | Knicks | 43% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lakers | 35% | 97 | 103 |
| 20 | Hornets | 65% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 27% | 102 | 79 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 73% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 49% | 102 | 96 |
| 9 | Hawks | 51% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 39% | 96 | 92 |
| 11 | Bulls | 61% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jazz | 31% | 90 | 93 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 69% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 55% | 101 | 95 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 45% | 100 | 106 |
Monday, March 2, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Raptors | 72% | 102 | 114 |
| 29 | 76ers | 28% | 94 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 66% | 107 | 108 |
| 19 | Nets | 34% | 101 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 44% | 99 | 98 |
| 14 | Heat | 56% | 102 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 62% | 108 | 110 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 38% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 29% | 99 | 93 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 71% | 107 | 102 |
Sunday, March 1, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 49% | 103 | 96 |
| 7 | Bulls | 51% | 104 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thunder | 65% | 107 | 108 |
| 26 | Lakers | 35% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 107 | 110 |
| 28 | Kings | 29% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 67% | 110 | 106 |
| 16 | Celtics | 33% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 27% | 91 | 74 |
| 15 | Pacers | 73% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 53% | 98 | 98 |
| 27 | Magic | 47% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 44% | 104 | 103 |
| 5 | Rockets | 56% | 106 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 48% | 103 | 99 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 52% | 104 | 92 |
Saturday, February 28, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 41% | 98 | 95 |
| 19 | Wizards | 59% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 56% | 99 | 93 |
| 15 | Heat | 44% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 71% | 103 | 98 |
| 30 | Knicks | 29% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Grizzlies | 62% | 101 | 101 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 38% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 30% | 98 | 104 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 70% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 51% | 104 | 101 |
| 12 | Suns | 49% | 103 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 43% | 93 | 75 |
| 14 | Jazz | 57% | 96 | 82 |