Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Thunder | 57% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BEC0C2;}%20.st1{fill:%23002D62;}%20.st2{fill:%23FDBB30;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M318.6,100.7c-20.1-24.2-48.9-37.7-81.3-37.7l-129.5,0L47.7,336.1l110.6,0.1l15.9-66.1c14.8,0,53.9,0,53.8,0%20c37,0.3,67.4-12.3,87.9-36.3C353,193.4,346.4,134.3,318.6,100.7z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M168.4,262.9L152.6,329l-96,0l56.9-258.8l123.7,0.1c30.8,0.1,57.2,12.5,75.8,35c27.4,33.1,30.1,88.1-2.7,123.9%20c-20.1,23.6-49.6,34-82.3,33.7L168.4,262.9z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M100.8,127.7l54.2,0c6.2,0,12.9,5.2,10,13.1c-1.8,4.9-3.1,10.6-3.8,15.9c-0.5,4.2,4.2,6.8,6.8,6.8l110.5,0.1%20c2.1,0,3.2-0.6,3.2-1.6c0-1-0.1-4.7-0.5-7.2c-0.4-2.4-0.8-2.9-2.8-2.9c-13.8,0-19.4-6.1-33.8-15.5c-14.4-9.3-35.6-14.7-53.8-14.7%20l-88.7-0.1L100.8,127.7z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M167.7,199.3c-1.9-4.1-3.7-9-4.8-13.4c-1.4-5.7-6.2-10.4-14.5-10.4l-58.2,0l1.4-6.5l188.5,0.1%20c1.9,0,1.5,0.8,1.4,2.9c-0.1,2.1-0.6,5.9-0.9,8.2c-0.3,2.3-2.2,1.7-4,1.8c-4.2,0.1-12.1,1.1-16.7,4.5c-7.8,5.9-24.5,16.2-33.8,19.2%20c-10,3.2-47.6,14.7-58.6-6.5'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M79.9,222.8l98.4,0.1c4.3,0,8.1,1,11,3.4c8.3,6.9,19.1,11.8,30.5,15.1c5.1,1.5,14-0.4,21.9-4.9%20c19.7-11.1,32.4-32.3,36.5-46c1.1-3.6-1-3.3-3.8-3.1c-8.3,0.6-17,8.1-28.5,15.4c-11.5,7.3-34.8,14.2-57,14.2l-107.8-0.1L79.9,222.8%20z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M224.2,91c1.4-0.2,6.4-0.5,9.1,0.5c18.7,7.4,36.4,26.8,43.8,47.5c1.4,4,1.8,6.5,0,6.7%20c-8.6,0.9-12.6-3.3-22.6-10.1c-10.1-6.8-19.4-11.5-32.1-15.5c-12.6-4-35.5-4.6-38.5-4.7c-3-0.1-2.6-1.3-1.3-2.6%20C193.6,101.9,208.3,93.9,224.2,91z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M313.9,162c0.1,0.8-0.8,1.7-1.8,1.7c-0.1,0-21.6,0-21.6,0c-2.8,0-2.8-1.3-2.9-2.9c-0.1-1.6-0.6-4.7-0.6-6.6%20c-0.1-1.8-0.8-3.9,1.7-4.9c6-2.5,11.7-8.4,14.3-13.4c0.9-1.7,2.2-4.5,3.6-2.1C311.7,141.8,313.3,151.9,313.9,162z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M306.2,200.7c-0.4,0.7-1.7,1.3-2.2,0.1c-3.1-8.4-10.6-14.2-15.8-17.1c-1.6-0.9-1.7-1.9-1.5-3.4%20c0.2-1.5,0.9-6.4,1-8.5c0.1-1.6,0.7-2.8,2-2.8l22.5,0c0.8,0,1.8,0.7,1.8,1.3C313.9,181,310.7,191.6,306.2,200.7z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M247.8,242.9c-1.6,0.2-5-0.3,0.4-3.5c16.3-9.5,30.9-31.8,34.7-44.5c1.5-4.9,1.6-5.1,3.5-4.6%20c2.5,0.7,6.4,4.1,9.4,8.3c3,4.1,4.3,12.2,2.6,14.6C286.8,228.8,268.1,239.9,247.8,242.9z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M289.3,142.1c-3.8,2-4.5,1.7-5.3-1.2c-7.1-24.9-28-43.3-36.6-48.7c-1.6-1-1.2-1.7,0-1.6%20c20.5,2.7,40.5,13.9,50.6,29.2C303.8,128.5,293,140.1,289.3,142.1z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 9 | Pacers | 64% | 94 | 86 |
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Nets | 29% | 93 | 86 |
 | 6 | Heat | 71% | 101 | 107 |
Monday, May 5, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 43% | 104 | 122 |
| 4 | Thunder | 57% | 107 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 34% | 89 | 102 |
| 8 | Pacers | 66% | 95 | 96 |
Sunday, May 4, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Mavericks | 25% | 96 | 96 |
| 2 | Spurs | 75% | 105 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 35% | 95 | 104 |
 | 15 | Raptors | 65% | 100 | 103 |
Saturday, May 3, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3 | Thunder | 71% | 100 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Pacers | 64% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Clippers | 70% | 109 | 126 |
Friday, May 2, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23061922;}%20.st1{fill:%23CE1141;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M249.8,189.4l0.4-33.3c0-15.6-16.3-18.2-28.3-18.1c8-2.7,17.7-7.2,24.7-14.8c7.4-6.8,12.6-16.4,11.7-29.8%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8l-2.3,2.3c-6.2,19.3-9.9,34.7-12.1,49%20c-27.9,4.8-47.5,11.2-47.5,11.2l-2.3,2.3c0,0,22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.3,0.1,57.1,0,109.6c-41.6-1.2-78.1,5.7-87,16.9%20c-2.9,2.4-4.5,5.1-4.4,7.9c0.5,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l2.3-2.3l3.7-49c0-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.3-2.1c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.6,2.2,4.1%20l1.6,64.5l2.3-2.3l4-52.5c0-1.2,0.1-2.1,0.3-2.9c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.8,2.1,4.8l1.8,67.2l2.3-2.3l3.2-97.8c6.1,0.2,12.3,0.3,18.7,0.3%20c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.3-2.3l2.7-53.4c0-1.1,0.1-2,0.3-2.7c1,0.2,2,1.8,2,4.6l2.8,74.9l2.3-2.3l2.8-64.7%20c0-0.9,0.2-1.7,0.4-2.3c1.3,0,2.7,1.6,2.7,4.7l2.3,85.7l2.3-2.3l3.4-143.6c45.4-4,79.9-13.1,88.5-23.7c2.8-2.4,4.4-4.9,4.4-7.4%20C341.4,197.9,299.3,187.1,249.8,189.4%20M152.3,227.9c-36.4-3.5-61-10.9-61-20.2c0-0.7,0.2-1.3,0.6-2c8.5-6,34.7-9.8,60.9-13.7%20c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8L152.3,227.9z%20M226.5,102.5c1.4,10.3-1.6,18.1-6.9,24c-9.5,8.6-24.4,12.5-36.5,14.3%20c0.2-19.4-0.1-39.6-1.8-59.4C204.7,83.9,224.8,89.8,226.5,102.5%20M219.6,229.9c-5.7,0.2-11.5,0.3-17.5,0.3c-7,0-13.9-0.1-20.5-0.4%20l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21,0.7-47.4,1.1-75.6c17.1,2,37.6,6.8,37.3,18.8L219.6,229.9z%20M310.2,213.7c-8.5,6.7-31,11.9-60.8,14.5l0.4-35.8%20c34.1,4.4,61.8,9.4,61.8,17.6C311.6,211.2,311.1,212.5,310.2,213.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M342,211.9c-0.6-14-42.7-24.8-92.2-22.4l0.4-33.3c-0.1-20.6-28.3-18.6-37.8-17.3c11.1-2,48.2-11.3,45.9-45.3%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8c-6.5,20.2-10.3,36.1-12.4,50.9%20c-29,4.8-49.5,11.6-49.5,11.6s22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.7,0.1,57.9,0,112c-49.2-1.7-91.9,7.8-91.4,22.4%20c0.4,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l3.7-49c0.1-6.1,4.7-5.5,4.7-0.3l1.7,64.5l4-52.5c-0.1-7.1,4.9-6.7,4.7-0.4l1.8,67.2%20l3.2-100.2c6.8,0.2,13.8,0.4,20.9,0.4c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.7-53.4c0-6.8,4.6-6.5,4.6-0.4l2.8,74.9l2.8-64.7%20c0.2-6.4,5.3-6.1,5.4,0l2.3,85.7l3.4-145.6v-0.1C303,236.3,342,224.6,342,211.9%20M228.8,100.2c3.8,28.2-25,37.5-45.7,40.6%20c0.2-20.3-0.1-41.4-2-62C205.5,81.2,227,87,228.8,100.2%20M91.3,207.7c0-8.6,31.9-13.2,63.8-18c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8l0.1,4.7%20C116.9,224.7,91.3,217.2,91.3,207.7%20M181.6,229.8l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21.7,0.8-49,1.1-78.1c17.4,1.8,39.9,6.5,39.5,19.1l-0.6,67.4%20c-6.4,0.2-13,0.3-19.8,0.3C195.1,230.1,188.3,230,181.6,229.8%20M249.4,228.2l0.5-38.4c35.1,4.5,64,9.6,64,17.9%20C313.9,217.2,287.5,224.8,249.4,228.2'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 5 | Rockets | 38% | 106 | 98 |
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 110 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 48% | 101 | 111 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 52% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 41% | 96 | 83 |
| 16 | Nets | 59% | 99 | 97 |
Thursday, May 1, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 39% | 103 | 99 |
| 4 | Warriors | 61% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 51% | 97 | 104 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 49% | 96 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 47% | 95 | 95 |
| 17 | Hawks | 53% | 96 | 88 |
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 38% | 96 | 113 |
| 12 | Raptors | 62% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 105 | 98 |
| 5 | Rockets | 68% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 29% | 98 | 103 |
| 2 | Spurs | 71% | 105 | 109 |
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 33% | 101 | 103 |
| 2 | Clippers | 67% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 31% | 93 | 100 |
| 3 | Thunder | 69% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 37% | 89 | 75 |
 | 14 | Bulls | 63% | 94 | 69 |
Monday, April 28, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 51% | 103 | 93 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 49% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 58% | 97 | 109 |
 | 18 | Bobcats | 42% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 37% | 92 | 107 |
| 12 | Pacers | 63% | 97 | 97 |
Sunday, April 27, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 45% | 98 | 87 |
| 15 | Nets | 55% | 100 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 38% | 89 | 89 |
| 13 | Wizards | 62% | 93 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 44% | 103 | 97 |
| 6 | Warriors | 56% | 105 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 40% | 106 | 120 |
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 109 | 123 |
Saturday, April 26, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 49% | 96 | 92 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 51% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 47% | 101 | 108 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 53% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Heat | 53% | 96 | 98 |
| 18 | Bobcats | 47% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 47% | 94 | 91 |
| 17 | Hawks | 53% | 95 | 88 |
Friday, April 25, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 43% | 107 | 121 |
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 57% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 42% | 91 | 100 |
| 13 | Wizards | 58% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 42% | 96 | 98 |
| 16 | Nets | 58% | 99 | 102 |
Thursday, April 24, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 45% | 93 | 85 |
| 18 | Hawks | 55% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 48% | 103 | 98 |
| 12 | Warriors | 52% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 51% | 97 | 95 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 49% | 96 | 98 |