Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, April 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Mavericks | 49% | 103 | 107 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 36% | 103 | 85 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Bulls | 31% | 89 | 114 |
 | 23 | Raptors | 69% | 95 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Nets | 69% | 93 | 89 | |
Saturday, April 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Heat | 54% | 97 | 80 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 57% | 109 | 99 |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 43% | 107 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Knicks | 56% | 99 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Pistons | 80% | 99 | 101 |
 | 30 | Magic | 20% | 88 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Celtics | 44% | 100 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 29% | 96 | 92 | |
 | 11 | Bucks | 71% | 103 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, April 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 30% | 93 | 91 |
| 14 | Heat | 70% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 32% | 91 | 83 |
| 22 | 76ers | 68% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 40% | 95 | 80 |
| 18 | Hornets | 60% | 98 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 21% | 83 | 66 |
| 7 | Pistons | 79% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 84 | 74 |
| 1 | Spurs | 78% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 27% | 86 | 80 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 39% | 93 | 103 |
| 10 | Rockets | 61% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 67% | 105 | 96 |
| 25 | Suns | 33% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 33% | 96 | 95 |
| 5 | Lakers | 67% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 54% | 95 | 92 |
| 16 | Warriors | 46% | 94 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 44% | 98 | 116 |
| 28 | Bulls | 56% | 100 | 101 |
Thursday, April 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 33% | 98 | 94 |
| 1 | Kings | 67% | 103 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 22% | 98 | 94 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 78% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 11% | 88 | 81 |
| 9 | Nets | 89% | 103 | 101 | |
Wednesday, April 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 25% | 98 | 107 |
| 12 | Bucks | 75% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 34% | 94 | 82 |
| 22 | Knicks | 66% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 35% | 94 | 101 |
| 15 | Heat | 65% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 60% | 90 | 94 |
| 23 | Raptors | 40% | 87 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 19% | 94 | 74 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 81% | 105 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 14% | 89 | 75 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 86% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 55% | 101 | 111 |
| 25 | Suns | 45% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Warriors | 34% | 91 | 81 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 58% | 96 | 102 |
| 28 | Clippers | 42% | 93 | 79 |
Tuesday, April 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 51% | 93 | 90 |
| 15 | Warriors | 49% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 21% | 95 | 91 | |
| 3 | Kings | 79% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 21% | 92 | 91 |
| 2 | Lakers | 79% | 102 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 25% | 104 | 108 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 75% | 113 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 24% | 88 | 86 |
| 8 | Pacers | 76% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 6% | 84 | 86 |
| 5 | Pistons | 94% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 48% | 95 | 103 |
| 26 | Hawks | 52% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 44% | 96 | 103 |
| 16 | Nets | 56% | 98 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 43% | 95 | 87 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 57% | 97 | 86 |
Monday, April 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 55% | 94 | 81 |
| 19 | Jazz | 45% | 92 | 92 |
Sunday, April 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 28% | 96 | 88 | |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 72% | 103 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 56% | 95 | 97 |
| 27 | Clippers | 44% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 29% | 92 | 89 |
| 17 | Nets | 71% | 99 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 35% | 86 | 61 |
| 5 | Pistons | 65% | 90 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 41% | 94 | 95 |
| 1 | Lakers | 59% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 37% | 94 | 82 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 63% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 55% | 100 | 102 |
| 28 | Wizards | 45% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 52% | 98 | 99 |
| 11 | Rockets | 48% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 49% | 96 | 90 |
| 22 | Raptors | 51% | 97 | 83 |
Saturday, April 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 15% | 99 | 103 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 85% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 34% | 90 | 86 |
| 21 | 76ers | 66% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 51% | 98 | 103 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 49% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 55% | 95 | 97 |
| 27 | Bulls | 45% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 94 | |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 95 | 81 |
Friday, April 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hawks | 63% | 103 | 95 |
| 30 | Magic | 37% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Warriors | 44% | 96 | 106 |
| 20 | Celtics | 56% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 24% | 85 | 64 |
| 7 | Pacers | 76% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 34% | 91 | 83 |
| 19 | Nets | 66% | 96 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 27% | 86 | 84 |
| 6 | Pistons | 73% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 15% | 91 | 73 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 85% | 104 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 41% | 96 | 110 |
| 28 | Bulls | 59% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 27% | 97 | 89 |
| 13 | Bucks | 73% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 37% | 92 | 100 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 63% | 96 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 91 | 94 |
| 15 | Jazz | 33% | 85 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 47% | 104 | 97 |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 53% | 105 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 23% | 93 | 99 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 77% | 102 | 109 |
Thursday, April 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 26% | 92 | 85 |
| 1 | Lakers | 74% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 37% | 106 | 117 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 63% | 110 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 89 | 88 |
| 21 | 76ers | 58% | 91 | 82 |
Wednesday, March 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 54% | 97 | 100 |
| 25 | Hawks | 46% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 95 | 105 |
| 21 | Celtics | 52% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 56% | 97 | 103 | |
| 26 | Wizards | 44% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 57% | 99 | 109 |
| 30 | Magic | 43% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 26% | 91 | 78 |
| 6 | Pacers | 74% | 99 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Clippers | 15% | 86 | 99 |
| 7 | Pistons | 85% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 23% | 95 | 83 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 77% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 39% | 95 | 89 |
| 3 | Spurs | 61% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 76 | |
| 16 | Jazz | 66% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 35% | 91 | 85 |
| 17 | Raptors | 65% | 96 | 78 |
Tuesday, March 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 15% | 97 | 109 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 85% | 110 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 46% | 92 | 71 |
| 22 | 76ers | 54% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 52% | 97 | 86 |
| 11 | Bucks | 48% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 42% | 101 | 119 | |
| 13 | Nuggets | 58% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 20% | 94 | 88 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 80% | 104 | 107 |
Monday, March 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 95 | 91 |
| 24 | Knicks | 49% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 34% | 96 | 95 |
| 25 | Suns | 66% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 17% | 87 | 93 |
| 3 | Spurs | 83% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 53% | 92 | 94 |
| 10 | Rockets | 47% | 91 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 61% | 100 | 136 |
| 27 | Hawks | 39% | 97 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 27% | 89 | 96 |
| 14 | Heat | 73% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 30% | 91 | 84 |
| 20 | Nets | 70% | 98 | 80 | |