| ORTG | #Poss | Pace | |
|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) CLE | 94.8 | 96 | 80.7 |
 MIA | 114.0 | 93 | 114.7 |
Scoring Opportunities
CLE
78
+9
-18
87
MIA
82
+11
-11
93
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
CLE
1.03 51.7%
MIA
1.14 57.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS
Win Probability
Scoring Margin
Play-by-Play
| Score / WinProb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clock | Team | Event | CLE | MIA |
| Q4 - 0:00.0 | MIA | 91 0% | 106 100% | |
| Q4 - 0:14.0 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 91 0% | 106 100% |
| Q4 - 0:16.0 | CLE | MISS Kapono 19' Jump Shot | 91 0% | 106 100% |
| Q4 - 0:31.0 | MIA | Butler 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Alston 4 AST) | 91 0.1% | 106 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:48.0 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:50.0 | CLE | Butler BLOCK (1 BLK) | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:53.0 | CLE | Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:55.0 | MIA | MISS Odom Reverse Layup | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:07 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7) | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:09 | CLE | MISS Nailon 18' Jump Shot | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:22 | CLE | Nailon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:25 | MIA | MISS Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:25 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS) | 91 0.1% | 104 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:42 | CLE | Nailon 18' Jump Shot (18 PTS) | 91 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:56 | CLE | Nailon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:58 | MIA | MISS Jones Layup | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:04 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:05 | CLE | MISS Wagner 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:12 | CLE | Ollie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:14 | MIA | MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:32 | CLE | Wagner 6' Jump Shot (13 PTS) | 89 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:55 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS) | 87 0.1% | 103 99.9% |
| Q4 - 2:55 | MIA | Odom Layup (16 PTS) (Wade 7 AST) | 87 0.1% | 102 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:08 | CLE | Nailon Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS) | 87 0.2% | 100 99.8% |
| Q4 - 3:08 | CLE | MISS Nailon Free Throw 1 of 2 | 86 0.1% | 100 99.9% |
| Q4 - 3:19 | MIA | Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) | 86 0.2% | 100 99.8% |
| Q4 - 3:29 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 86 0.4% | 97 99.6% |
| Q4 - 3:31 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas 7' Hook Shot | 86 0.9% | 97 99.1% |
| Q4 - 3:34 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3) | 86 1.2% | 97 98.8% |
| Q4 - 3:36 | CLE | MISS James 15' Jump Shot | 86 0.9% | 97 99.1% |
| Q4 - 3:50 | CLE | Cavaliers Rebound | 86 1.1% | 97 98.9% |
| Q4 - 3:51 | CLE | MISS Nailon 16' Jump Shot | 86 0.8% | 97 99.2% |
| Q4 - 4:09 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS) | 86 1.1% | 97 98.9% |
| Q4 - 4:09 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS) | 86 1.1% | 96 98.9% |
| Q4 - 4:11 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 86 1.5% | 95 98.5% |
| Q4 - 4:13 | CLE | MISS Newble 18' Jump Shot | 86 1.7% | 95 98.3% |
| Q4 - 4:37 | MIA | Grant Layup (19 PTS) (Alston 3 AST) | 86 2.1% | 95 97.9% |
| Q4 - 4:53 | CLE | Newble Traveling Turnover (P3.T18) | 86 3.0% | 93 97.0% |
| Q4 - 5:07 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3) | 86 5.5% | 93 94.5% |
| Q4 - 5:09 | MIA | MISS Alston 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 86 5.0% | 93 95.0% |
| Q4 - 5:19 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 86 4.0% | 93 96.0% |
| Q4 - 5:20 | CLE | MISS Newble 17' Jump Shot | 86 4.4% | 93 95.6% |
| Q4 - 5:30 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6) | 86 5.5% | 93 94.5% |
| Q4 - 5:32 | MIA | MISS Jones 17' Jump Bank Shot | 86 5.0% | 93 95.0% |
| Q4 - 5:49 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 86 3.9% | 93 96.1% |
| Q4 - 5:50 | MIA | MISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 | 86 5.2% | 93 94.8% |
| Q4 - 5:50 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS) | 86 4.3% | 93 95.7% |
| Q4 - 6:00 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 86 5.4% | 92 94.6% |
| Q4 - 6:01 | MIA | MISS Alston Layup | 86 7.8% | 92 92.2% |
| Q4 - 6:05 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 86 6.2% | 92 93.8% |
| Q4 - 6:09 | CLE | MISS Wagner 9' Jump Shot | 86 6.9% | 92 93.1% |
| Q4 - 6:23 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS) | 86 8.6% | 92 91.4% |
| Q4 - 6:23 | MIA | Odom Driving Layup (13 PTS) | 86 11.3% | 91 88.7% |
| Q4 - 6:41 | CLE | James 24' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Wagner 3 AST) | 86 14.1% | 89 85.9% |
| Q4 - 6:57 | MIA | Odom 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) | 83 8.5% | 89 91.5% |
| Q4 - 7:10 | CLE | Ilgauskas Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T17) | 83 15.1% | 86 84.9% |
| Q4 - 7:25 | CLE | Cavaliers Rebound | 83 19.5% | 86 80.5% |
| Q4 - 7:27 | MIA | MISS Wade 15' Turnaround Jump Shot | 83 18.1% | 86 81.9% |
| Q4 - 7:46 | CLE | James Layup (21 PTS) | 83 15.1% | 86 84.9% |
| Q4 - 8:05 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS) | 81 13.1% | 86 86.9% |
| Q4 - 8:05 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS) | 81 13.7% | 85 86.3% |
| Q4 - 8:08 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 81 16.2% | 84 83.8% |
| Q4 - 8:09 | CLE | MISS James Layup | 81 17.3% | 84 82.7% |
| Q4 - 8:31 | MIA | Wade Driving Finger Roll (15 PTS) | 81 20.0% | 84 80.0% |
| Q4 - 8:46 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6) | 81 24.3% | 82 75.7% |
| Q4 - 8:48 | CLE | MISS James 12' Fadeaway Jumper | 81 25.8% | 82 74.2% |
| Q4 - 9:02 | MIA | Walker Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11) | 81 29.2% | 82 70.8% |
| Q4 - 9:36 | CLE | Nailon 12' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Wagner 2 AST) | 81 24.3% | 82 75.7% |
| Q4 - 9:55 | MIA | Butler Dunk (10 PTS) (Wade 6 AST) | 79 20.3% | 82 79.7% |
| Q4 - 10:00 | CLE | Wade STEAL (5 STL) | 79 24.3% | 80 75.7% |
| Q4 - 10:23 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS) | 79 29.2% | 80 70.8% |
| Q4 - 10:23 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS) | 79 30.2% | 79 69.8% |
| Q4 - 10:40 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 79 33.8% | 78 66.2% |
| Q4 - 10:42 | CLE | MISS Ollie 9' Jump Shot | 79 35.5% | 78 64.5% |
| Q4 - 11:04 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 79 39.1% | 78 60.9% |
| Q4 - 11:04 | MIA | Haslem Tip Shot (4 PTS) | 79 39.1% | 78 60.9% |
| Q4 - 11:05 | MIA | MISS Butler Layup | 79 48.0% | 76 52.0% |
| Q4 - 11:18 | CLE | James Traveling Turnover (P7.T15) | 79 44.1% | 76 55.9% |
| Q4 - 11:29 | MIA | Alston Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10) | 79 49.8% | 76 50.2% |
| Q4 - 11:36 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5) | 79 44.1% | 76 55.9% |
| Q4 - 11:38 | CLE | MISS Nailon 18' Jump Shot | 79 45.8% | 76 54.2% |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | CLE | 79 49.8% | 76 50.2% | |
| Q3 - 0:18.0 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS) | 79 48.3% | 76 51.7% |
| Q3 - 0:18.0 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS) | 79 49.4% | 75 50.6% |
| Q3 - 0:31.0 | CLE | Nailon Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS) | 79 53.5% | 74 46.5% |
| Q3 - 0:31.0 | CLE | Nailon Layup (12 PTS) (James 8 AST) | 78 48.3% | 74 51.7% |
| Q3 - 0:35.0 | MIA | Haslem Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9) | 76 43.2% | 74 56.8% |
| Q3 - 0:56.0 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 76 38.3% | 74 61.7% |
| Q3 - 0:58.0 | CLE | MISS Nailon 12' Jump Shot | 76 39.8% | 74 60.2% |
| Q3 - 1:24 | MIA | Wade Driving Layup (11 PTS) | 76 42.1% | 74 57.9% |
| Q3 - 1:42 | CLE | Ilgauskas 12' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Newble 1 AST) | 76 46.9% | 72 53.1% |
| Q3 - 2:06 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS) | 74 40.9% | 72 59.1% |
| Q3 - 2:06 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS) | 74 41.9% | 71 58.1% |
| Q3 - 2:12 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4) | 74 45.1% | 70 54.9% |
| Q3 - 2:14 | CLE | MISS Wagner 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 74 46.6% | 70 53.4% |
| Q3 - 2:37 | MIA | Alston 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) | 74 50.2% | 70 49.8% |
| Q3 - 2:52 | CLE | James 17' Jump Shot (19 PTS) | 74 59.1% | 67 40.9% |
| Q3 - 3:17 | MIA | Grant 18' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Alston 2 AST) | 72 53.8% | 67 46.2% |
| Q3 - 3:35 | CLE | Newble Dunk (2 PTS) | 72 58.0% | 65 42.0% |
| Q3 - 3:38 | MIA | Alston Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8) | 70 53.9% | 65 46.1% |
| Q3 - 3:49 | CLE | Ilgauskas Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS) | 70 49.1% | 65 50.9% |
| Q3 - 3:49 | CLE | Ilgauskas Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS) | 69 48.2% | 65 51.8% |
| Q3 - 4:03 | MIA | Grant Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS) | 68 43.8% | 65 56.2% |
| Q3 - 4:03 | MIA | Grant Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS) | 68 44.5% | 64 55.5% |
| Q3 - 4:13 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3) | 68 47.4% | 63 52.6% |
| Q3 - 4:14 | MIA | MISS Butler 7' Jump Shot | 68 50.9% | 63 49.1% |
| Q3 - 4:31 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 68 47.5% | 63 52.5% |
| Q3 - 4:32 | CLE | MISS Wagner 11' Jump Shot | 68 49.1% | 63 50.9% |
| Q3 - 4:43 | MIA | Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Butler 3 AST) | 68 52.5% | 63 47.5% |
| Q3 - 5:04 | CLE | James Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS) | 68 59.2% | 60 40.8% |
| Q3 - 5:04 | CLE | James Layup (16 PTS) | 67 55.1% | 60 44.9% |
| Q3 - 5:05 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5) | 65 51.3% | 60 48.7% |
| Q3 - 5:06 | CLE | MISS James Free Throw 2 of 2 | 65 47.4% | 60 52.6% |
| Q3 - 5:06 | CLE | James Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS) | 65 50.2% | 60 49.8% |
| Q3 - 5:24 | MIA | Butler 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jones 3 AST) | 64 47.2% | 60 52.8% |
| Q3 - 5:43 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 64 51.0% | 58 49.0% |
| Q3 - 5:45 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas 16' Jump Shot | 64 52.4% | 58 47.6% |
| Q3 - 5:59 | CLE | Boozer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 64 55.5% | 58 44.5% |
| Q3 - 6:01 | MIA | MISS Odom 8' Hook Shot | 64 52.5% | 58 47.5% |
| Q3 - 6:23 | CLE | Ilgauskas 15' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (James 7 AST) | 64 49.7% | 58 50.3% |
| Q3 - 6:31 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 62 46.0% | 58 54.0% |
| Q3 - 6:32 | MIA | MISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 62 44.7% | 58 55.3% |
| Q3 - 6:48 | CLE | Wagner Driving Layup (11 PTS) | 62 41.8% | 58 58.2% |
| Q3 - 7:08 | MIA | Grant 18' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Jones 2 AST) | 60 37.6% | 58 62.4% |
| Q3 - 7:22 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 60 40.8% | 56 59.2% |
| Q3 - 7:23 | CLE | MISS James Free Throw 2 of 2 | 60 41.4% | 56 58.6% |
| Q3 - 7:23 | CLE | James Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS) | 60 43.8% | 56 56.2% |
| Q3 - 7:23 | CLE | James Free Throw Technical (12 PTS) | 59 41.3% | 56 58.7% |
| Q3 - 7:25 | CLE | Boozer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 58 37.6% | 56 62.4% |
| Q3 - 7:27 | MIA | MISS Odom Layup | 58 36.4% | 56 63.6% |
| Q3 - 7:43 | CLE | Boozer Layup (9 PTS) | 58 33.6% | 56 66.4% |
| Q3 - 8:00 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS) | 56 30.7% | 56 69.3% |
| Q3 - 8:00 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS) | 56 31.4% | 55 68.6% |
| Q3 - 8:15 | CLE | Boozer 14' Turnaround Jump Shot (7 PTS) | 56 33.3% | 54 66.7% |
| Q3 - 8:29 | CLE | Wagner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 54 30.5% | 54 69.5% |
| Q3 - 8:31 | CLE | MISS Newble 18' Jump Shot | 54 28.0% | 54 72.0% |
| Q3 - 8:43 | MIA | Grant Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T7) | 54 30.5% | 54 69.5% |
| Q3 - 9:01 | CLE | James Free Throw 3 of 3 (11 PTS) | 54 26.6% | 54 73.4% |
| Q3 - 9:01 | CLE | James Free Throw 2 of 3 (10 PTS) | 53 26.0% | 54 74.0% |
| Q3 - 9:01 | CLE | James Free Throw 1 of 3 (9 PTS) | 52 25.3% | 54 74.7% |
| Q3 - 9:16 | CLE | Wagner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 51 21.3% | 54 78.7% |
| Q3 - 9:18 | MIA | MISS Odom 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 51 20.6% | 54 79.4% |
| Q3 - 9:50 | CLE | Wagner 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (James 6 AST) | 51 18.9% | 54 81.1% |
| Q3 - 9:59 | MIA | Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T6) | 48 14.9% | 54 85.1% |
| Q3 - 10:03 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3) | 48 13.1% | 54 86.9% |
| Q3 - 10:05 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas 19' Jump Shot | 48 13.6% | 54 86.4% |
| Q3 - 10:11 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2) | 48 15.0% | 54 85.0% |
| Q3 - 10:13 | CLE | MISS James 19' Jump Shot | 48 13.6% | 54 86.4% |
| Q3 - 10:30 | MIA | Grant Dunk (11 PTS) (Odom 4 AST) | 48 15.0% | 54 85.0% |
| Q3 - 10:41 | CLE | Wade STEAL (4 STL) | 48 16.7% | 52 83.3% |
| Q3 - 11:03 | MIA | Butler Layup (6 PTS) (Jones 1 AST) | 48 18.8% | 52 81.2% |
| Q3 - 11:08 | CLE | Jones STEAL (1 STL) | 48 20.9% | 50 79.1% |
| Q3 - 11:16 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 48 23.4% | 50 76.6% |
| Q3 - 11:18 | MIA | MISS Wade 8' Jump Shot | 48 22.6% | 50 77.4% |
| Q3 - 11:39 | CLE | Ilgauskas Dunk (12 PTS) (Wagner 1 AST) | 48 20.9% | 50 79.1% |
| Q3 - 11:44 | MIA | Odom Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5) | 46 18.8% | 50 81.2% |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | CLE | 46 16.7% | 50 83.3% | |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 46 16.7% | 50 83.3% |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | MIA | MISS Wade 18' Jump Shot | 46 18.1% | 50 81.9% |
| Q2 - 0:22.0 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas Free Throw 1 of 1 | 46 17.5% | 50 82.5% |
| Q2 - 0:22.0 | CLE | Ilgauskas Dunk (10 PTS) | 46 17.3% | 50 82.7% |
| Q2 - 0:35.0 | MIA | Jones Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4) | 44 15.0% | 50 85.0% |
| Q2 - 0:44.0 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 44 13.8% | 50 86.2% |
| Q2 - 0:47.0 | CLE | MISS Brown 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 44 14.2% | 50 85.8% |
| Q2 - 1:04 | CLE | Nailon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 44 15.1% | 50 84.9% |
| Q2 - 1:05 | MIA | MISS Grant Free Throw 2 of 2 | 44 15.0% | 50 85.0% |
| Q2 - 1:05 | MIA | Grant Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS) | 44 13.9% | 50 86.1% |
| Q2 - 1:25 | CLE | Wagner Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T12) | 44 16.0% | 49 84.0% |
| Q2 - 1:44 | MIA | Jones Layup (15 PTS) (Wade 5 AST) | 44 16.9% | 49 83.1% |
| Q2 - 1:58 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 44 19.7% | 47 80.3% |
| Q2 - 2:00 | CLE | MISS James 19' Jump Shot | 44 20.0% | 47 80.0% |
| Q2 - 2:12 | MIA | Walker Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS) | 44 21.3% | 47 78.7% |
| Q2 - 2:12 | MIA | MISS Walker Free Throw 1 of 2 | 44 21.9% | 46 78.1% |
| Q2 - 2:25 | CLE | James Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS) | 44 21.5% | 46 78.5% |
| Q2 - 2:25 | CLE | James Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS) | 43 21.0% | 46 79.0% |
| Q2 - 2:31 | MIA | Wade Layup (9 PTS) | 42 19.3% | 46 80.7% |
| Q2 - 2:36 | CLE | Wade STEAL (3 STL) | 42 21.5% | 44 78.5% |
| Q2 - 2:47 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 42 23.4% | 44 76.6% |
| Q2 - 2:49 | MIA | MISS Butler 6' Hook Shot | 42 22.8% | 44 77.2% |
| Q2 - 3:00 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 42 21.5% | 44 78.5% |
| Q2 - 3:03 | CLE | MISS Battie 13' Turnaround Jump Shot | 42 21.9% | 44 78.1% |
| Q2 - 3:23 | MIA | Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS) | 42 23.5% | 44 76.5% |
| Q2 - 3:23 | MIA | MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 | 42 23.8% | 43 76.2% |
| Q2 - 3:23 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 42 23.3% | 43 76.7% |
| Q2 - 3:23 | CLE | MISS Nailon 16' Jump Shot | 42 24.0% | 43 76.0% |
| Q2 - 3:37 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS) | 42 25.7% | 43 74.3% |
| Q2 - 3:37 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS) | 42 26.2% | 42 73.8% |
| Q2 - 3:55 | CLE | Wagner Dunk (6 PTS) (Diop 2 AST) | 42 27.8% | 41 72.2% |
| Q2 - 3:57 | CLE | Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 40 25.8% | 41 74.2% |
| Q2 - 3:59 | MIA | MISS Jones Dunk | 40 25.0% | 41 75.0% |
| Q2 - 4:05 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 40 23.2% | 41 76.8% |
| Q2 - 4:07 | CLE | MISS Diop 13' Jump Shot | 40 23.8% | 41 76.2% |
| Q2 - 4:16 | CLE | Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 40 25.3% | 41 74.7% |
| Q2 - 4:18 | MIA | MISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 | 40 25.0% | 41 75.0% |
| Q2 - 4:18 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS) | 40 23.6% | 41 76.4% |
| Q2 - 4:29 | CLE | James Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T10) | 40 25.3% | 40 74.7% |
| Q2 - 4:40 | MIA | Walker Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS) | 40 27.6% | 40 72.4% |
| Q2 - 4:40 | MIA | MISS Walker Free Throw 1 of 2 | 40 28.2% | 39 71.8% |
| Q2 - 4:41 | MIA | Walker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 40 27.6% | 39 72.4% |
| Q2 - 4:43 | MIA | MISS Butler 19' Jump Shot | 40 29.2% | 39 70.8% |
| Q2 - 4:56 | CLE | James Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS) | 40 27.6% | 39 72.4% |
| Q2 - 4:56 | CLE | MISS James Free Throw 1 of 2 | 39 27.1% | 39 72.9% |
| Q2 - 5:00 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 39 27.6% | 39 72.4% |
| Q2 - 5:02 | MIA | MISS Butler 13' Turnaround Jump Shot | 39 26.7% | 39 73.3% |
| Q2 - 5:18 | CLE | James Foul Turnover (P3.T9) | 39 25.0% | 39 75.0% |
| Q2 - 5:40 | MIA | Wade 8' Jump Shot (6 PTS) | 39 27.4% | 39 72.6% |
| Q2 - 5:51 | CLE | Brown Foul Turnover (P1.T8) | 39 29.5% | 37 70.5% |
| Q2 - 6:06 | CLE | Cavaliers Rebound | 39 32.0% | 37 68.0% |
| Q2 - 6:07 | MIA | MISS Butler 19' Jump Shot | 39 31.1% | 37 68.9% |
| Q2 - 6:27 | CLE | Brown 17' Jump Shot (7 PTS) | 39 29.2% | 37 70.8% |
| Q2 - 6:42 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS) | 37 27.4% | 37 72.6% |
| Q2 - 6:42 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS) | 37 27.9% | 36 72.1% |
| Q2 - 7:00 | CLE | Nailon Layup (10 PTS) (Diop 1 AST) | 37 29.2% | 35 70.8% |
| Q2 - 7:10 | CLE | Ollie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 35 27.1% | 35 72.9% |
| Q2 - 7:12 | MIA | MISS Butler Layup | 35 26.5% | 35 73.5% |
| Q2 - 7:18 | CLE | Haslem STEAL (1 STL) | 35 25.0% | 35 75.0% |
| Q2 - 7:27 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 35 27.1% | 35 72.9% |
| Q2 - 7:27 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) | 35 27.6% | 34 72.4% |
| Q2 - 7:45 | CLE | Kapono Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6) | 35 29.1% | 33 70.9% |
| Q2 - 7:56 | CLE | Brown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 35 31.5% | 33 68.5% |
| Q2 - 7:58 | MIA | MISS Alston 24' Jump Shot | 35 30.8% | 33 69.2% |
| Q2 - 8:03 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 35 28.8% | 33 71.2% |
| Q2 - 8:05 | CLE | MISS Diop 18' Jump Shot | 35 29.6% | 33 70.4% |
| Q2 - 8:29 | CLE | Kapono REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 35 31.3% | 33 68.7% |
| Q2 - 8:31 | MIA | MISS Butler 22' Jump Shot | 35 30.6% | 33 69.4% |
| Q2 - 8:51 | CLE | James 7' Jump Shot (5 PTS) | 35 28.9% | 33 71.1% |
| Q2 - 8:59 | CLE | Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 33 27.0% | 33 73.0% |
| Q2 - 9:01 | CLE | MISS James 19' Jump Shot | 33 25.2% | 33 74.8% |
| Q2 - 9:22 | CLE | Brown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 33 26.8% | 33 73.2% |
| Q2 - 9:24 | MIA | MISS Wade Layup | 33 26.1% | 33 73.9% |
| Q2 - 9:43 | CLE | Nailon 14' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (James 5 AST) | 33 24.6% | 33 75.4% |
| Q2 - 10:07 | MIA | Grant 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wade 4 AST) | 31 23.1% | 33 76.9% |
| Q2 - 10:28 | CLE | Nailon 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (James 4 AST) | 31 24.7% | 31 75.3% |
| Q2 - 10:47 | MIA | Wade Layup (2 PTS) (Alston 1 AST) | 29 23.1% | 31 76.9% |
| Q2 - 10:52 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 29 24.7% | 29 75.3% |
| Q2 - 10:54 | CLE | MISS Ollie 16' Jump Shot | 29 25.3% | 29 74.7% |
| Q2 - 11:12 | MIA | Grant 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Butler 2 AST) | 29 26.2% | 29 73.8% |
| Q2 - 11:28 | CLE | James Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5) | 29 28.2% | 27 71.8% |
| Q2 - 11:43 | MIA | Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3) | 29 30.2% | 27 69.8% |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | CLE | 29 28.2% | 27 71.8% | |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | MIA | Grant 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Odom 3 AST) | 29 30.2% | 27 69.8% |
| Q1 - 0:11.0 | CLE | James Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS) | 29 32.2% | 25 67.8% |
| Q1 - 0:11.0 | CLE | MISS James Free Throw 1 of 2 | 28 31.7% | 25 68.3% |
| Q1 - 0:27.0 | CLE | Ollie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 28 31.7% | 25 68.3% |
| Q1 - 0:28.0 | MIA | MISS Butler Layup | 28 31.2% | 25 68.8% |
| Q1 - 0:30.0 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1) | 28 30.1% | 25 69.9% |
| Q1 - 0:32.0 | MIA | MISS Alston 19' Jump Shot | 28 31.2% | 25 68.8% |
| Q1 - 0:46.0 | CLE | Brown 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (James 3 AST) | 28 30.1% | 25 69.9% |
| Q1 - 0:52.0 | CLE | Nailon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 25 25.9% | 25 74.1% |
| Q1 - 0:54.0 | MIA | MISS Grant Dunk | 25 25.4% | 25 74.6% |
| Q1 - 1:08 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 25 24.5% | 25 75.5% |
| Q1 - 1:10 | CLE | MISS Wagner 12' Hook Shot | 25 24.9% | 25 75.1% |
| Q1 - 1:27 | MIA | Alston 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) | 25 25.9% | 25 74.1% |
| Q1 - 1:44 | CLE | Nailon 12' Jump Shot (4 PTS) | 25 30.1% | 22 69.9% |
| Q1 - 1:52 | CLE | Brown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 23 27.7% | 22 72.3% |
| Q1 - 1:55 | MIA | MISS Jones 18' Jump Shot | 23 27.3% | 22 72.7% |
| Q1 - 2:17 | CLE | Brown Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Nailon 1 AST) | 23 26.1% | 22 73.9% |
| Q1 - 2:39 | MIA | Jones 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Butler 1 AST) | 21 24.2% | 22 75.8% |
| Q1 - 2:44 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 21 28.0% | 19 72.0% |
| Q1 - 2:46 | CLE | MISS Nailon 16' Jump Shot | 21 28.5% | 19 71.5% |
| Q1 - 3:07 | MIA | Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) | 21 29.5% | 19 70.5% |
| Q1 - 3:26 | CLE | Wagner Finger Roll (4 PTS) | 21 33.1% | 16 66.9% |
| Q1 - 3:49 | MIA | Grant 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Odom 2 AST) | 19 31.4% | 16 68.6% |
| Q1 - 4:05 | CLE | Nailon 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 19 32.5% | 14 67.5% |
| Q1 - 4:07 | CLE | Nailon REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 17 31.0% | 14 69.0% |
| Q1 - 4:10 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas 19' Jump Shot | 17 29.4% | 14 70.6% |
| Q1 - 4:36 | MIA | Jones Reverse Layup (6 PTS) (Odom 1 AST) | 17 31.0% | 14 69.0% |
| Q1 - 4:47 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 17 32.5% | 12 67.5% |
| Q1 - 4:49 | CLE | MISS James Layup | 17 33.2% | 12 66.8% |
| Q1 - 5:05 | CLE | Cavaliers Rebound | 17 33.7% | 12 66.3% |
| Q1 - 5:06 | MIA | MISS Odom 8' Jump Shot | 17 33.1% | 12 66.9% |
| Q1 - 5:25 | CLE | James 11' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS) | 17 31.8% | 12 68.2% |
| Q1 - 5:34 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1) | 15 30.2% | 12 69.8% |
| Q1 - 5:36 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas Tip Shot | 15 28.8% | 12 71.2% |
| Q1 - 5:38 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 15 30.2% | 12 69.8% |
| Q1 - 5:40 | CLE | MISS James 8' Running Jump Shot | 15 28.8% | 12 71.2% |
| Q1 - 5:48 | CLE | Newble REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 15 30.2% | 12 69.8% |
| Q1 - 5:50 | MIA | MISS Jones 15' Jump Shot | 15 29.6% | 12 70.4% |
| Q1 - 6:03 | CLE | Boozer Foul Turnover (P1.T4) | 15 27.9% | 12 72.1% |
| Q1 - 6:08 | MIA | Grant Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2) | 15 29.6% | 12 70.4% |
| Q1 - 6:24 | CLE | Ilgauskas 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (8 PTS) | 15 27.9% | 12 72.1% |
| Q1 - 6:45 | MIA | Jones 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) | 13 26.4% | 12 73.6% |
| Q1 - 7:04 | CLE | Ilgauskas 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (James 2 AST) | 13 27.3% | 10 72.7% |
| Q1 - 7:19 | MIA | Butler Dunk (4 PTS) (Wade 3 AST) | 11 26.0% | 10 74.0% |
| Q1 - 7:24 | CLE | Grant STEAL (1 STL) | 11 27.3% | 8 72.7% |
| Q1 - 7:32 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 11 29.0% | 8 71.0% |
| Q1 - 7:33 | MIA | MISS Grant 19' Jump Shot | 11 28.5% | 8 71.5% |
| Q1 - 7:55 | CLE | Ilgauskas 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (James 1 AST) | 11 27.4% | 8 72.6% |
| Q1 - 8:18 | MIA | Jones 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 2 AST) | 9 25.8% | 8 74.2% |
| Q1 - 8:36 | CLE | Ilgauskas Layup (2 PTS) | 9 27.1% | 6 72.9% |
| Q1 - 8:45 | CLE | Newble REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 25.8% | 6 74.2% |
| Q1 - 8:47 | MIA | MISS Butler Layup | 7 25.4% | 6 74.6% |
| Q1 - 8:52 | CLE | Wade STEAL (2 STL) | 7 24.3% | 6 75.7% |
| Q1 - 9:03 | MIA | Butler Finger Roll (2 PTS) | 7 25.8% | 6 74.2% |
| Q1 - 9:04 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 7 26.8% | 4 73.2% |
| Q1 - 9:06 | MIA | MISS Jones Layup | 7 28.2% | 4 71.8% |
| Q1 - 9:14 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 26.8% | 4 73.2% |
| Q1 - 9:16 | CLE | MISS Newble 18' Jump Shot | 7 27.4% | 4 72.6% |
| Q1 - 9:22 | CLE | Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 28.8% | 4 71.2% |
| Q1 - 9:24 | MIA | MISS Jones Driving Layup | 7 28.2% | 4 71.8% |
| Q1 - 9:38 | CLE | Boozer Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS) | 7 26.9% | 4 73.1% |
| Q1 - 9:38 | CLE | Boozer Driving Layup (4 PTS) | 6 25.4% | 4 74.6% |
| Q1 - 9:55 | MIA | Odom Layup (4 PTS) (Wade 1 AST) | 4 24.4% | 4 75.6% |
| Q1 - 9:59 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0) | 4 25.4% | 2 74.6% |
| Q1 - 10:01 | MIA | MISS Grant Layup | 4 26.5% | 2 73.5% |
| Q1 - 10:04 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 4 25.4% | 2 74.6% |
| Q1 - 10:06 | MIA | MISS Wade 9' Jump Shot | 4 26.5% | 2 73.5% |
| Q1 - 10:20 | CLE | Boozer 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 4 25.4% | 2 74.6% |
| Q1 - 10:34 | CLE | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 2 24.2% | 2 75.8% |
| Q1 - 10:36 | MIA | MISS Odom 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 2 23.7% | 2 76.3% |
| Q1 - 10:46 | CLE | Wade STEAL (1 STL) | 2 22.6% | 2 77.4% |
| Q1 - 10:51 | MIA | Grant Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1) | 2 24.2% | 2 75.8% |
| Q1 - 10:52 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 2 22.6% | 2 77.4% |
| Q1 - 10:54 | MIA | MISS Butler 16' Jump Shot | 2 23.7% | 2 76.3% |
| Q1 - 11:18 | CLE | Wagner 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Boozer 1 AST) | 2 22.7% | 2 77.3% |
| Q1 - 11:35 | MIA | Odom 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 0 21.4% | 2 78.6% |
| Q1 - 11:41 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 0 22.7% | 0 77.3% |
| Q1 - 11:43 | CLE | MISS Ilgauskas 6' Jump Shot | 0 23.1% | 0 76.9% |
| Q1 - 12:00 | MIA | Jump Ball Grant vs. Ilgauskas: Tip to Wagner | 0 23.9% | 0 76.1% |
SHOOTING
Scoring Efficiency
CLE
1.03 51.7%
MIA
1.14 57.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Scoring by Shot Type
At the Rim (within 5 feet)
CLE
14
18
78%
MIA
17
31
55%
Midrange
CLE
19
49
39%
MIA
11
30
37%
3PT | Effective 3PT
CLE
3
4.5
6
50%
75%
MIA
7
10.5
12
58%
88%
Free Throws
CLE
16
22
73%
MIA
29
36
81%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency Misses
Bars scaled to point value.
Total Points
| Cavaliers| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. James | 24 | 57% | 12.0 / 21 | |
| Z. Ilgauskas | 18 | 56% | 9.0 / 16 | |
| L. Nailon | 18 | 56% | 9.0 / 16 | |
| D. Wagner | 13 | 54% | 6.5 / 12 | |
| C. Boozer | 9 | 90% | 4.5 / 5 | |
| K. Brown | 7 | 88% | 3.5 / 4 | |
| I. Newble | 2 | 20% | 1.0 / 5 | |
| K. Ollie | 0 | - | 0.0 / 2 | |
| J. Kapono | 0 | - | 0.0 / 1 | |
| D. Diop | 0 | - | 0.0 / 2 | |
| T. Battie | 0 | - | 0.0 / 1 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
Total Points
| Heat| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Wade | 20 | 63% | 10.0 / 16 | |
| B. Grant | 19 | 73% | 9.5 / 13 | |
| L. Odom | 18 | 56% | 9.0 / 16 | |
| R. Alston | 16 | 80% | 8.0 / 10 | |
| E. Jones | 15 | 47% | 7.5 / 16 | |
| C. Butler | 12 | 46% | 6.0 / 13 | |
| U. Haslem | 4 | 100% | 2.0 / 2 | |
| S. Walker | 2 | 50% | 1.0 / 2 | |
| R. Butler | 0 | - | 0.0 / 4 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
MATCHUP
Scoring Opportunities
CLE
78
+9
-18
87
MIA
82
+11
-11
93
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
CLE
1.03 51.7%
MIA
1.14 57.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency & Pace | This Game | |
| Efficiency | 99.3 99.3 | CLE 94.8 +19.2 MIA 114.0 |
| Pace | 92.8 90.6 | CLE 80.7 MIA 114.7 +33.9 |
| Avg. Poss. Time | 15.8 16.0 | CLE 17.8 MIA 12.6 +5.3 |
| Four Factors | This Game | |
| EFG % | 45.1% 46.3% | CLE 51.4% MIA 52.7% +1.3% |
| TO % | 15.2% 14.4% | CLE 17.9% MIA 11.0% +6.9% |
| ORB % | 31.1% 27.5% | CLE 21.6% MIA 22.2% +0.6% |
| FTrt | 30.1 29.8 | CLE 30.1 MIA 49.3 +19.2 |
| Misc. Stats | This Game | |
| AST % | 61.9% 57.3% | CLE 44.4% MIA 60.0% +15.6% |
| STL % | 7.6% 7.9% | CLE 7.3% MIA 8.6% +1.3% |
| BLK % | 9.6% 6.3% | CLE 14.8% +13.3% MIA 1.5% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting Efficiency | This Game | |
| TS% | 47.5% 48.3% | CLE 51.7% MIA 57.0% +5.3% |
| Rim FG% | 54.3% 53.9% | CLE 77.8% +23.0% MIA 54.8% |
| Mid FG% | 37.5% 36.9% | CLE 38.8% +2.1% MIA 36.7% |
| 3P % | 31.4% 35.7% | CLE 50.0% MIA 58.3% +8.3% |
| FT % | 75.3% 76.2% | CLE 72.7% MIA 80.6% +7.9% |
| Shot Distribution | This Game | |
| Rim Att. % | 38.5% 34.4% | CLE 24.7% MIA 42.5% +17.8% |
| Mid Att. % | 49.8% 44.5% | CLE 67.1% MIA 41.1% +26.0% |
| 3P Att. % | 11.6% 21.1% | CLE 8.2% MIA 16.4% +8.2% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
| Game Totals | CLE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Possessions | 96 | 93 |
| Possession Minutes | 28.5 | 19.5 |
| Points | 91 | 106 |
| Rebounds | 36 | 37 |
| Assists | 16 | 21 |
| Steals | 7 | 8 |
| Blocks | 9 | 1 |
| Turnovers (Team) | 18 (0) | 11 (0) |
| Fouls | ||
| Off. Rebounds (Team) | 8 (1) | 8 (3) |
| Def. Rebounds (Team) | 28 (3) | 29 (2) |
| Field Goals | 36-73 | 35-73 |
| At-the-Rim FG | 14-18 | 17-31 |
| Midrange FG | 19-49 | 11-30 |
| 2-Point FG | 33-67 | 28-61 |
| 3-Point FG | 3-6 | 7-12 |
| Free Throws | 16-22 | 29-36 |
| Fast Break Pts | ||
| 2nd Chance Pts | ||
| Points in Paint | ||
| Pts off Turnovers | ||
| Bench Points | ||
| Biggest Lead |
BOXSCORE
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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.
Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.
Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.
Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.
Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.