Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, December 11, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Magic | 27% | 104 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Bulls | 56% | 108 | 92 |
 | 24 | Heat | 44% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, December 10, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 43% | 115 | 123 |
 | 24 | Hornets | 57% | 118 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 46% | 109 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Knicks | 42% | 107 | 87 |
 | 14 | Raptors | 58% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Nets | 42% | 113 | 113 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Bucks | 67% | 117 | 123 |
| 27 | Rockets | 33% | 111 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 54% | 108 | 123 |
 | 22 | Timberwolves | 46% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Pistons | 31% | 105 | 93 |
 | 20 | Pelicans | 69% | 112 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Lakers | 59% | 112 | 116 |
 | 28 | Thunder | 41% | 108 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Celtics | 36% | 107 | 90 |
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Thursday, December 9, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 49% | 109 | 118 |
| 4 | 76ers | 51% | 110 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 49% | 110 | 95 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 51% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 48% | 110 | 111 |
| 20 | Spurs | 52% | 111 | 123 |
Wednesday, December 8, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 62% | 113 | 110 |
| 21 | Hornets | 38% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 46% | 106 | 92 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 54% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 65% | 109 | 119 |
| 28 | Pistons | 35% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 35% | 105 | 102 |
| 11 | Pacers | 65% | 110 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 61% | 111 | 104 |
| 23 | Heat | 39% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 24% | 102 | 110 |
| 14 | Raptors | 76% | 112 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 72% | 116 | 136 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 28% | 107 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 40% | 109 | 104 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 60% | 113 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 57% | 111 | 120 |
| 25 | Pelicans | 43% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 52% | 113 | 104 |
| 26 | Rockets | 48% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 27 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 101 | 94 |
| 2 | Warriors | 86% | 116 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 31% | 108 | 130 |
| 24 | Kings | 69% | 115 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 38% | 106 | 111 |
| 7 | Clippers | 62% | 111 | 114 |
Tuesday, December 7, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 49% | 113 | 102 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 51% | 114 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 53% | 110 | 121 |
| 20 | Spurs | 47% | 109 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 49% | 111 | 102 |
| 18 | Lakers | 51% | 112 | 117 |
Monday, December 6, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 76ers | 69% | 113 | 127 |
| 22 | Hornets | 31% | 106 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 42% | 104 | 114 |
| 28 | Pistons | 58% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 34% | 105 | 110 |
| 12 | Pacers | 66% | 111 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 39% | 107 | 105 |
| 16 | Heat | 61% | 111 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 43% | 108 | 97 |
| 10 | Bulls | 57% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 33% | 106 | 104 |
| 5 | Bucks | 67% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 55% | 113 | 121 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 45% | 111 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 25% | 106 | 104 |
| 4 | Suns | 75% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 12% | 100 | 95 |
| 2 | Warriors | 88% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 65% | 110 | 102 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 105 | 90 |
Sunday, December 5, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz | 65% | 112 | 109 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 35% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 45% | 106 | 90 |
| 18 | Raptors | 55% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 30% | 111 | 130 |
| 6 | Hawks | 70% | 118 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 51% | 114 | 108 |
| 26 | Rockets | 49% | 113 | 118 |
Saturday, December 4, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 49% | 108 | 113 |
| 13 | Knicks | 51% | 109 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 33% | 105 | 102 |
| 10 | Bucks | 67% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bulls | 49% | 112 | 111 |
| 8 | Nets | 51% | 113 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Spurs | 22% | 104 | 112 |
| 2 | Warriors | 78% | 115 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grizzlies | 56% | 110 | 97 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 44% | 108 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 52% | 113 | 99 |
| 25 | Kings | 48% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 55% | 110 | 145 |
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 109 | 117 |
Friday, December 3, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 39% | 104 | 113 |
| 11 | Pacers | 61% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 45% | 106 | 116 |
| 16 | Wizards | 55% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Timberwolves | 36% | 110 | 105 |
| 7 | Nets | 64% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 46% | 110 | 98 |
| 6 | Hawks | 54% | 112 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 40% | 109 | 116 |
| 27 | Rockets | 60% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pelicans | 37% | 109 | 107 |
| 17 | Mavericks | 63% | 114 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 31% | 105 | 130 |
| 2 | Jazz | 69% | 112 | 137 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 34% | 108 | 96 |
| 1 | Warriors | 66% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 49% | 111 | 119 |
| 20 | Lakers | 51% | 112 | 115 |
Thursday, December 2, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 60% | 111 | 93 |
| 20 | Raptors | 40% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bulls | 52% | 109 | 119 |
| 12 | Knicks | 48% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 21% | 100 | 79 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 79% | 112 | 152 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 14% | 101 | 103 |
| 2 | Suns | 86% | 117 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Spurs | 40% | 110 | 114 |
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 114 | 83 |
Wednesday, December 1, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hawks | 53% | 112 | 114 |
| 11 | Pacers | 47% | 111 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 74% | 113 | 103 |
| 30 | Magic | 26% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Timberwolves | 43% | 110 | 107 |
| 14 | Wizards | 57% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 51% | 108 | 87 |
| 10 | Celtics | 49% | 107 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 44% | 105 | 111 |
| 19 | Heat | 56% | 107 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 54% | 112 | 139 |
| 24 | Pelicans | 46% | 111 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 29% | 111 | 125 |
| 4 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Rockets | 54% | 109 | 114 |
| 29 | Thunder | 46% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 30% | 107 | 124 |
| 18 | Clippers | 70% | 115 | 115 |
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Grizzlies | 43% | 106 | 98 |
| 19 | Raptors | 57% | 109 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 33% | 107 | 110 |
| 8 | Nets | 67% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lakers | 44% | 112 | 117 |
| 25 | Kings | 56% | 115 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 34% | 105 | 92 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 111 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 46% | 112 | 96 |
| 2 | Suns | 54% | 113 | 104 |
Monday, November 29, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 14% | 98 | 96 |
| 4 | 76ers | 86% | 114 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 39% | 103 | 120 |
| 12 | Heat | 61% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 35% | 111 | 119 |
| 9 | Bulls | 65% | 116 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Thunder | 45% | 109 | 89 |
| 27 | Rockets | 55% | 110 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 38% | 109 | 98 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 62% | 113 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 38% | 108 | 114 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 62% | 112 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 53% | 110 | 99 |
| 23 | Spurs | 47% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 110 | 107 |
| 2 | Jazz | 72% | 119 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 33% | 104 | 123 |
| 8 | Clippers | 67% | 111 | 104 |
Sunday, November 28, 2021
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 57% | 111 | 105 |
| 8 | Clippers | 43% | 108 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 52% | 110 | 118 |
| 12 | Pacers | 48% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 47% | 111 | 101 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 53% | 113 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 51% | 107 | 109 |
| 19 | Raptors | 49% | 106 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 29% | 106 | 106 |
| 21 | Lakers | 71% | 114 | 110 |