Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, February 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Mavericks | 81% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 35% | 94 | 92 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Magic | 33% | 96 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 70% | 104 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Heat | 24% | 86 | 86 |
| 4 | Nets | 76% | 94 | 92 | |
Friday, February 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 40% | 99 | 104 |
 | 9 | Bucks | 60% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Raptors | 40% | 89 | 75 |
 | 23 | Celtics | 60% | 92 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 27 | Magic | 51% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 43% | 90 | 77 |
| 13 | Hornets | 57% | 92 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 20% | 85 | 83 |
 | 7 | Pistons | 80% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 32% | 93 | 81 |
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 68% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 85 | 85 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | SuperSonics | 65% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Knicks | 42% | 98 | 94 |
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Thursday, February 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 48% | 104 | 103 |
| 4 | Lakers | 52% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 47% | 98 | 91 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 53% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 39% | 94 | 87 |
| 28 | Wizards | 61% | 98 | 95 |
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 95 |
| 20 | Suns | 65% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 101 | 106 |
| 24 | Celtics | 49% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 45% | 89 | 76 |
| 30 | Raptors | 55% | 91 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 22% | 95 | 93 |
| 11 | Hornets | 78% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 91 | 68 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 62% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 29% | 94 | 99 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 71% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 27% | 89 | 84 |
| 8 | Rockets | 73% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 48% | 102 | 112 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 52% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 37% | 95 | 93 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 63% | 99 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 67% | 95 | 107 |
| 28 | Bulls | 33% | 90 | 88 |
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 39% | 90 | 75 |
| 26 | Hawks | 61% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 98 | 94 |
| 28 | Magic | 51% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 35% | 90 | 96 |
| 13 | Pacers | 65% | 95 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 19% | 81 | 74 |
| 5 | Nets | 81% | 92 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 48% | 99 | 108 |
| 12 | Bucks | 52% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 20% | 102 | 91 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 80% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 30% | 83 | 77 |
| 1 | Spurs | 70% | 90 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 40% | 95 | 86 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 60% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 18% | 94 | 99 |
| 2 | Kings | 82% | 105 | 107 |
Monday, February 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 37% | 96 | 106 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 100 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 89 | 89 |
| 21 | Heat | 57% | 92 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 58% | 98 | 100 | |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 42% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 53% | 91 | 76 |
| 22 | 76ers | 47% | 90 | 66 |
Sunday, February 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 59% | 102 | 104 |
| 21 | Suns | 41% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 33% | 97 | 87 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 67% | 102 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 21% | 83 | 121 |
| 7 | Rockets | 79% | 93 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 16% | 90 | 87 |
| 8 | Pistons | 84% | 103 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 49% | 101 | 113 |
| 25 | Wizards | 51% | 102 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 47% | 91 | 94 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 53% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 29% | 84 | 80 |
| 9 | Pacers | 71% | 91 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 70% | 97 | 96 |
| 27 | Raptors | 30% | 91 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 38% | 94 | 92 |
| 23 | Knicks | 62% | 97 | 86 |
Saturday, February 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 33% | 95 | 88 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 67% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 84 | |
| 5 | Nets | 66% | 95 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 51% | 95 | 81 |
| 23 | Heat | 49% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 57% | 97 | 105 |
| 27 | Bulls | 43% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 31% | 99 | 105 |
| 15 | Bucks | 69% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 39% | 93 | 84 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 61% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 39% | 99 | 92 | |
| 14 | Warriors | 61% | 102 | 94 |
Friday, February 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 61% | 104 | 98 |
| 30 | Magic | 39% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 62% | 95 | 96 |
| 29 | Wizards | 38% | 91 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 41% | 90 | 92 |
| 22 | Knicks | 59% | 93 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 37% | 90 | 92 |
| 18 | Heat | 63% | 94 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 66% | 90 | 91 | |
| 28 | Raptors | 34% | 85 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 70% | 96 | 87 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 30% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 28% | 93 | 92 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 72% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 63% | 103 | 91 |
| 26 | Bulls | 37% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 20% | 92 | 88 |
| 6 | Lakers | 80% | 102 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 93 | 94 |
| 13 | Warriors | 64% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 40% | 91 | 88 |
| 7 | Pistons | 60% | 94 | 87 |
Thursday, February 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 46% | 100 | 100 |
| 21 | Clippers | 54% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 35% | 95 | 112 |
| 16 | SuperSonics | 65% | 100 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 45% | 101 | 75 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 55% | 102 | 92 |
Wednesday, February 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 22% | 88 | 92 |
| 5 | Nets | 78% | 98 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 51% | 99 | 77 |
| 30 | Magic | 49% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 72% | 89 | 86 |
| 18 | Raptors | 28% | 82 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 54% | 106 | 114 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 46% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 35% | 91 | 98 |
| 13 | Pistons | 65% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 24% | 92 | 98 |
| 11 | Hornets | 76% | 101 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 37% | 95 | 86 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 42% | 99 | 100 |
| 12 | Warriors | 58% | 101 | 99 |
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 30% | 87 | 89 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 70% | 94 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 94 | 86 |
| 8 | Lakers | 74% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 16% | 95 | 111 |
| 1 | Kings | 84% | 108 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 34% | 92 | 85 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 66% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 22% | 86 | 81 |
| 7 | Rockets | 78% | 96 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 49% | 91 | 73 |
| 29 | Bulls | 51% | 92 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 47% | 103 | 92 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 53% | 104 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 22% | 92 | 95 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 24% | 100 | 104 |
| 11 | Bucks | 76% | 109 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 43% | 89 | 85 |
| 19 | Heat | 57% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 55% | 91 | 88 |
| 27 | Knicks | 45% | 89 | 92 |