Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, December 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Heat | 52% | 102 | 104 |
 | 14 | Lakers | 48% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Pistons | 51% | 88 | 98 |
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Thursday, December 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 33% | 100 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 4 | Suns | 77% | 109 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Timberwolves | 34% | 91 | 82 |
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Wednesday, December 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Bucks | 51% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Knicks | 32% | 99 | 109 |
 | 13 | Celtics | 68% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Raptors | 61% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 87 |
 | 14 | Magic | 36% | 95 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 18 | Pacers | 61% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 31 | Nets | 47% | 91 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Mavericks | 76% | 102 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 32 | Bulls | 18% | 83 | 89 |
| 8 | Pistons | 82% | 94 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 33 | Bobcats | 20% | 88 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 54% | 99 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | SuperSonics | 69% | 102 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 17% | 88 | 89 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 83% | 100 | 101 |
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 59% | 100 | 97 |
| 20 | Cavaliers | 41% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nets | 47% | 91 | 94 | |
| 33 | Bobcats | 53% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 56% | 104 | 123 |
| 16 | Knicks | 44% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 8 | Kings | 79% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 27% | 87 | 91 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 30% | 98 | 100 |
| 9 | Heat | 70% | 105 | 108 |
Monday, December 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 48% | 103 | 103 |
| 27 | Warriors | 52% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 36% | 97 | 82 |
| 11 | Lakers | 64% | 102 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 57% | 105 | 107 | |
| 15 | Nuggets | 43% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 30% | 92 | 102 |
| 19 | Rockets | 70% | 98 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 94 | 87 |
| 32 | Bulls | 48% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 31% | 95 | 103 |
| 23 | 76ers | 69% | 102 | 101 |
Sunday, December 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 22% | 98 | 107 |
| 9 | Heat | 78% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nets | 38% | 90 | 99 | |
| 25 | Raptors | 62% | 94 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 34% | 99 | 93 |
| 15 | Knicks | 66% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 12% | 89 | 71 | |
| 4 | Kings | 88% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 46% | 96 | 92 |
| 19 | Clippers | 54% | 98 | 82 |
Saturday, December 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 22% | 103 | 96 |
| 6 | Suns | 78% | 113 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Warriors | 12% | 86 | 85 |
| 2 | Spurs | 88% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 7% | 90 | 68 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 93% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 38% | 97 | 116 |
| 26 | Bucks | 62% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 51% | 94 | 71 |
| 32 | Bulls | 49% | 93 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 37% | 97 | 114 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 63% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 83 | 75 |
| 8 | Pistons | 80% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 39% | 99 | 95 |
| 16 | Magic | 61% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 54% | 94 | 100 |
| 33 | Bobcats | 46% | 93 | 101 |
Friday, December 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 42% | 105 | 112 | |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 58% | 108 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 39% | 101 | 120 |
| 12 | Lakers | 61% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 44% | 99 | 113 |
| 23 | 76ers | 56% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 35% | 92 | 86 |
| 14 | Pacers | 65% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Jazz | 32% | 97 | 106 |
| 17 | Celtics | 68% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 96 | 100 |
| 36 | Hawks | 35% | 92 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 32% | 96 | 100 |
| 10 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 30% | 88 | 84 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 70% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 93 | 83 |
| 35 | Hornets | 18% | 81 | 67 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Clippers | 26% | 94 | 86 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 74% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 37% | 94 | 83 |
| 20 | Rockets | 63% | 98 | 100 |
Thursday, December 16, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 23% | 98 | 115 |
| 3 | Kings | 77% | 108 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 53% | 99 | 77 |
| 32 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 26% | 86 | 69 |
| 8 | Pistons | 74% | 94 | 81 |
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 59% | 102 | 90 |
| 27 | Raptors | 41% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 39% | 97 | 100 |
| 19 | Celtics | 61% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 54% | 104 | 98 |
| 21 | Wizards | 46% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 93 | 88 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 66% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 56% | 93 | 94 |
| 16 | Knicks | 44% | 91 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 54% | 93 | 89 |
| 35 | Hornets | 46% | 92 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 17% | 88 | 69 |
| 22 | Rockets | 83% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 17% | 91 | 91 |
| 2 | Spurs | 83% | 103 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Jazz | 15% | 98 | 86 |
| 7 | Suns | 85% | 112 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bulls | 22% | 92 | 96 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 78% | 102 | 88 |
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 43% | 91 | 93 | |
| 32 | Bobcats | 57% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 48% | 97 | 102 |
| 23 | 76ers | 52% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 47% | 94 | 87 |
| 27 | Nets | 53% | 95 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 69% | 97 | 108 |
| 36 | Hawks | 31% | 91 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 66% | 106 | 89 |
| 25 | Bucks | 34% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 92 | 89 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 77% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Warriors | 22% | 96 | 111 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 78% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 44% | 97 | 91 |
| 31 | Jazz | 56% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 31% | 99 | 93 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 69% | 105 | 108 | |
Monday, December 13, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 41% | 96 | 134 |
| 15 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 21% | 103 | 100 |
| 7 | Suns | 79% | 113 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 73% | 104 | 94 |
| 33 | Bulls | 27% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 34% | 94 | 92 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 66% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 25% | 99 | 83 |
| 8 | Heat | 75% | 107 | 106 |
Sunday, December 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 47% | 99 | 96 |
| 20 | Knicks | 53% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 41% | 101 | 98 |
| 11 | Lakers | 59% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bobcats | 31% | 96 | 87 |
| 28 | Warriors | 69% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Jazz | 35% | 93 | 88 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 37% | 96 | 101 |
| 22 | 76ers | 63% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 24% | 93 | 69 | |
| 18 | Wizards | 76% | 102 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 59% | 101 | 106 |
| 25 | Raptors | 41% | 98 | 98 |