Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, December 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 33 | Bobcats | 46% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Magic | 61% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Pistons | 80% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Celtics | 37% | 97 | 114 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 32 | Bulls | 49% | 93 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Bucks | 62% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Mavericks | 93% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Suns | 78% | 113 | 110 | |
Friday, December 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Knicks | 44% | 99 | 113 |
| 23 | 76ers | 56% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Raptors | 35% | 92 | 86 |
| 14 | Pacers | 65% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Celtics | 68% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 96 | 100 |
| 36 | Hawks | 35% | 92 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 32% | 96 | 100 |
 | 10 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 30% | 88 | 84 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 93 | 83 |
| 35 | Hornets | 18% | 81 | 67 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Timberwolves | 74% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 37% | 94 | 83 |
| 20 | Rockets | 63% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 39% | 101 | 120 |
 | 12 | Lakers | 61% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 42% | 105 | 112 | |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 58% | 108 | 110 | |
Thursday, December 16, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 26% | 86 | 69 |
| 8 | Pistons | 74% | 94 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 53% | 99 | 77 |
| 32 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 23% | 98 | 115 |
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Wednesday, December 15, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 39% | 97 | 100 |
| 19 | Celtics | 61% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 59% | 102 | 90 |
| 27 | Raptors | 41% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 54% | 104 | 98 |
| 21 | Wizards | 46% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 93 | 88 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 66% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 56% | 93 | 94 |
| 16 | Knicks | 44% | 91 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bulls | 22% | 92 | 96 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 78% | 102 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 54% | 93 | 89 |
| 35 | Hornets | 46% | 92 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 17% | 88 | 69 |
| 22 | Rockets | 83% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 17% | 91 | 91 |
| 2 | Spurs | 83% | 103 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Jazz | 15% | 98 | 86 |
| 7 | Suns | 85% | 112 | 108 | |
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 48% | 97 | 102 |
| 23 | 76ers | 52% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 43% | 91 | 93 | |
| 32 | Bobcats | 57% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 47% | 94 | 87 |
| 27 | Nets | 53% | 95 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 69% | 97 | 108 |
| 36 | Hawks | 31% | 91 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 66% | 106 | 89 |
| 25 | Bucks | 34% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 92 | 89 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 77% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Warriors | 22% | 96 | 111 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 78% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 44% | 97 | 91 |
| 31 | Jazz | 56% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 31% | 99 | 93 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 69% | 105 | 108 | |
Monday, December 13, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 25% | 99 | 83 |
| 8 | Heat | 75% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 34% | 94 | 92 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 66% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 73% | 104 | 94 |
| 33 | Bulls | 27% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 21% | 103 | 100 |
| 7 | Suns | 79% | 113 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 41% | 96 | 134 |
| 15 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 127 |
Sunday, December 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 47% | 99 | 96 |
| 20 | Knicks | 53% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 59% | 101 | 106 |
| 25 | Raptors | 41% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 24% | 93 | 69 | |
| 18 | Wizards | 76% | 102 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 37% | 96 | 101 |
| 22 | 76ers | 63% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Jazz | 35% | 93 | 88 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bobcats | 31% | 96 | 87 |
| 28 | Warriors | 69% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 41% | 101 | 98 |
| 11 | Lakers | 59% | 103 | 105 |
Saturday, December 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 58% | 93 | 95 | |
| 36 | Hawks | 42% | 90 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 55% | 100 | 97 |
| 15 | Pacers | 45% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 44% | 88 | 68 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 56% | 90 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 74% | 102 | 88 |
| 33 | Bulls | 26% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 56% | 98 | 102 |
| 18 | Rockets | 44% | 97 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Cavaliers | 18% | 87 | 97 |
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 98 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 29% | 99 | 98 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 71% | 105 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 42% | 96 | 89 |
| 14 | Clippers | 58% | 99 | 87 |
Friday, December 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 51% | 98 | 101 |
| 25 | Raptors | 49% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 38% | 103 | 104 |
| 19 | Wizards | 62% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 29% | 83 | 91 | |
| 26 | Nets | 71% | 89 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 34% | 96 | 84 |
| 10 | Heat | 66% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 10% | 83 | 88 |
| 7 | Pistons | 90% | 99 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 55% | 98 | 93 |
| 33 | Bulls | 45% | 96 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 39% | 101 | 105 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 61% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 54% | 97 | 86 |
| 29 | Bucks | 46% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bobcats | 14% | 97 | 106 |
| 6 | Suns | 86% | 111 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 95 | 87 |
| 31 | Jazz | 60% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 51% | 103 | 113 |
| 28 | Warriors | 49% | 102 | 109 |
Thursday, December 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 59% | 91 | 80 |
| 17 | Rockets | 41% | 89 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 31% | 100 | 107 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 69% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 44% | 96 | 87 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 98 | 89 |
Wednesday, December 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 55% | 100 | 119 |
| 24 | 76ers | 45% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 46% | 100 | 111 |
| 21 | Wizards | 54% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 65% | 100 | 97 |
| 36 | Hawks | 35% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 25% | 89 | 86 |
| 6 | Pistons | 75% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 61% | 102 | 101 |
| 26 | Bucks | 39% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 56% | 96 | 86 |
| 35 | Hornets | 44% | 94 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 60% | 98 | 85 |
| 33 | Bulls | 40% | 95 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 28% | 92 | 102 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 72% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Magic | 51% | 104 | 106 |
| 31 | Jazz | 49% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 45% | 103 | 113 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 55% | 105 | 110 |
Tuesday, December 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 27% | 87 | 97 | |
| 17 | Cavaliers | 73% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 32% | 94 | 89 |
| 16 | Pacers | 68% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 37% | 99 | 88 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 63% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 29% | 97 | 97 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 71% | 104 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hornets | 20% | 83 | 81 | |
| 18 | Rockets | 80% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Warriors | 19% | 98 | 104 |
| 9 | Suns | 81% | 109 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bobcats | 11% | 93 | 92 |
| 4 | Kings | 89% | 108 | 109 |
Monday, December 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 53% | 93 | 86 |
| 32 | Nets | 47% | 92 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 66% | 100 | 92 |
| 34 | Hawks | 34% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 84% | 99 | 91 |
| 33 | Bulls | 16% | 86 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 38% | 92 | 101 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 62% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Magic | 45% | 98 | 102 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 55% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 56% | 101 | 100 |
| 29 | Jazz | 44% | 99 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bobcats | 24% | 92 | 93 |
| 12 | Clippers | 76% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 44% | 98 | 106 |
| 27 | Warriors | 56% | 100 | 110 |
Sunday, December 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 29% | 99 | 105 |
| 5 | Kings | 71% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 56% | 101 | 121 | |
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 99 | 99 |