Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, February 23, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Hornets | 41% | 106 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Celtics | 56% | 103 | 110 |
 | 19 | Pistons | 44% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Bucks | 27% | 104 | 122 |
 | 3 | Raptors | 73% | 112 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Heat | 44% | 104 | 123 |
 | 17 | Pelicans | 56% | 106 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23707271;}%20.st1{fill:%2312173F;}%20.st2{fill:%235D76A9;}%20.st3{fill:%23FFBB22;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M328.9,129.2c3.7-7,5.4-13.9,5.4-20.6c0-15.1-8.5-28.8-20.4-36.9c-16.6-11.2-41.4-12.9-58.9,8.2%20c-25.6-3.5-47.1,3.5-55.3,7c-8.2-3.3-29.7-10.4-55.3-7c-17.6-21-42.5-19.4-59-8.2c-11.9,8.1-20.4,21.7-20.4,36.9%20c0,6.7,1.7,13.6,5.4,20.6c-13.2,19.1-22.5,41.8-22.5,64.9c0,27.8,11.9,42.2,16.4,48.4c0,0,1.9-1.9,3.6-3.6%20c12.6,32,34.2,49.3,60.2,65c0,0,0.6-3.1,1-6c28,24.3,41.3,18.3,70.5,51.2c29-32.9,42.8-27.1,70.5-51.2c0.5,2.9,1,6,1,6%20c11.6-7,44.3-24.6,60.2-65c1.6,1.6,3.6,3.6,3.6,3.6c2.8-3.8,16.4-19,16.4-48.4C351.4,171.1,342.3,148.3,328.9,129.2'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M320.9,129.6c26.8-41-33.9-83.7-63.2-42.4c-29.6-5.2-54.7,5.5-58,7.1c-3.3-1.5-28.4-12.4-58-7.1%20c-29.3-41.3-90,1.4-63.2,42.4C48,171.4,51,212.7,65.2,232.1l5.8-5.8c0,0,8.3,40.3,52.2,66.8l1.6-8.7c27,28.9,51.7,28.2,74.9,54.6%20c23.2-26.4,47.9-25.7,74.9-54.6l1.6,8.7c43.9-26.5,52.2-66.8,52.2-66.8l5.8,5.8C348.4,212.6,351.4,171.4,320.9,129.6'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M200,283c0,0-21,0.3-24.2,2.3c0,0-3.6,6.3,24.2,6.2c26.5-0.1,22.6-5,22.8-5.6C222.6,285.7,213.8,283,200,283'%20/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M181.7,258.5c0,0,3.2-9.5,6.8-6.5c4.9,4.2,11.2,12.7,11.2,13.5v11.3l-7.7,0.4c-4.4,0.1-18.7,3.5-18.7,3.5%20c-19.6-48.5-8.8-85.1-3.5-98.3c-19.4,4.2-22.6-19-22.6-19c2-0.4,5,0.5,8.4,2.1c5.1,2.5,11.3,6.7,16.2,10.5l0,0%20c1.4,1.1,2.8,2.2,3.9,3.1c13.2,11.1,23.9,8.9,23.9,8.9v47.4C199.7,235.4,161.2,232.5,181.7,258.5'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M217.8,258.5c24.5-24.9-15.5-23.4-18-23C203.9,235.7,234.9,235.9,217.8,258.5'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M234.1,183.3c22.1,59.4-5.9,97.6-6.1,97.8c17.3-45.4,6.2-83.2-1.4-97.3c-3.9,0.4-8.6,0.2-8.6,0.2%20s5.9-3.6,9.6-7c0.3-0.3,0.6-0.5,0.9-0.8c3.1-2.8,9.1-7.7,16.5-10.6l0,0c2.7-1,5.5-1.8,8.5-2.1C253.5,163.4,251.4,183.1,234.1,183.3%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M269,106.4c0,0,9-22.5,36.6-17c0,0-25.3-16.7-42.9,13.4c0,0-25.2-11.8-62.9,4.5c0,0-35.4-12.5-62.3-5.4%20c0,0-15.7-27.2-37.8-16S89,123,92.8,129.7c0,0-36.7,37.3-22.9,83.4l7.3-9.2c0,0,10.5,50.3,37.7,66.1l1.6-12.4%20c0,0,28.4,34.2,61.7,48.8c3.1,1.5,20.9,10.3,21.3,14.6v-23.9c0,0-23.1,1.9-29.2-8.8c-4.2-7.2-30.8-54.7-17.6-104.4%20c0,0-12.8-1.9-15.2-23.5c0,0-9.5-4.7-21.4-3.7c0,0,21.2-6.7,41,1c19.9,7.7,25.1,27.2,38.7,18.6l3.7-55.1l4.2,55.3%20c13.4,8.7,18.8-11,38.7-18.6c19.9-7.7,41-1,41-1s-8.5-6-22.1-8.7c-11.3-2.3-28.1,5-28.1,5s2.3-15.6,9.9-24%20C249.7,122,264.5,120.4,269,106.4z%20M97.6,125.5c-0.8-7.5,8.7-15,8.7-15c-3.9-4-10.8-0.6-10.8-0.6c6.2-12.1,20.1-6.2,20.1-6.2%20c-5.2-6.5-16.4-6-16.4-6C113,84,129.7,105,129.7,105C114.8,108.3,97.6,125.5,97.6,125.5z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M171.9,176c-2.1-0.7-5.6,1.5-7.6,5.3c-6.6-1.9-8.9-9-8.6-15.8l0,0C160.8,168,166.9,172.2,171.9,176'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M236.6,181.4c-2.1-4-5.8-6.3-7.9-5.2c3.1-2.8,9.1-7.7,16.5-10.6l0,0C245.4,172.3,243,179.4,236.6,181.4'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 24 | Grizzlies | 51% | 109 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 36% | 109 | 102 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23061922;}%20.st1{fill:%23CE1141;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M249.8,189.4l0.4-33.3c0-15.6-16.3-18.2-28.3-18.1c8-2.7,17.7-7.2,24.7-14.8c7.4-6.8,12.6-16.4,11.7-29.8%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8l-2.3,2.3c-6.2,19.3-9.9,34.7-12.1,49%20c-27.9,4.8-47.5,11.2-47.5,11.2l-2.3,2.3c0,0,22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.3,0.1,57.1,0,109.6c-41.6-1.2-78.1,5.7-87,16.9%20c-2.9,2.4-4.5,5.1-4.4,7.9c0.5,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l2.3-2.3l3.7-49c0-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.3-2.1c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.6,2.2,4.1%20l1.6,64.5l2.3-2.3l4-52.5c0-1.2,0.1-2.1,0.3-2.9c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.8,2.1,4.8l1.8,67.2l2.3-2.3l3.2-97.8c6.1,0.2,12.3,0.3,18.7,0.3%20c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.3-2.3l2.7-53.4c0-1.1,0.1-2,0.3-2.7c1,0.2,2,1.8,2,4.6l2.8,74.9l2.3-2.3l2.8-64.7%20c0-0.9,0.2-1.7,0.4-2.3c1.3,0,2.7,1.6,2.7,4.7l2.3,85.7l2.3-2.3l3.4-143.6c45.4-4,79.9-13.1,88.5-23.7c2.8-2.4,4.4-4.9,4.4-7.4%20C341.4,197.9,299.3,187.1,249.8,189.4%20M152.3,227.9c-36.4-3.5-61-10.9-61-20.2c0-0.7,0.2-1.3,0.6-2c8.5-6,34.7-9.8,60.9-13.7%20c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8L152.3,227.9z%20M226.5,102.5c1.4,10.3-1.6,18.1-6.9,24c-9.5,8.6-24.4,12.5-36.5,14.3%20c0.2-19.4-0.1-39.6-1.8-59.4C204.7,83.9,224.8,89.8,226.5,102.5%20M219.6,229.9c-5.7,0.2-11.5,0.3-17.5,0.3c-7,0-13.9-0.1-20.5-0.4%20l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21,0.7-47.4,1.1-75.6c17.1,2,37.6,6.8,37.3,18.8L219.6,229.9z%20M310.2,213.7c-8.5,6.7-31,11.9-60.8,14.5l0.4-35.8%20c34.1,4.4,61.8,9.4,61.8,17.6C311.6,211.2,311.1,212.5,310.2,213.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M342,211.9c-0.6-14-42.7-24.8-92.2-22.4l0.4-33.3c-0.1-20.6-28.3-18.6-37.8-17.3c11.1-2,48.2-11.3,45.9-45.3%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8c-6.5,20.2-10.3,36.1-12.4,50.9%20c-29,4.8-49.5,11.6-49.5,11.6s22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.7,0.1,57.9,0,112c-49.2-1.7-91.9,7.8-91.4,22.4%20c0.4,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l3.7-49c0.1-6.1,4.7-5.5,4.7-0.3l1.7,64.5l4-52.5c-0.1-7.1,4.9-6.7,4.7-0.4l1.8,67.2%20l3.2-100.2c6.8,0.2,13.8,0.4,20.9,0.4c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.7-53.4c0-6.8,4.6-6.5,4.6-0.4l2.8,74.9l2.8-64.7%20c0.2-6.4,5.3-6.1,5.4,0l2.3,85.7l3.4-145.6v-0.1C303,236.3,342,224.6,342,211.9%20M228.8,100.2c3.8,28.2-25,37.5-45.7,40.6%20c0.2-20.3-0.1-41.4-2-62C205.5,81.2,227,87,228.8,100.2%20M91.3,207.7c0-8.6,31.9-13.2,63.8-18c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8l0.1,4.7%20C116.9,224.7,91.3,217.2,91.3,207.7%20M181.6,229.8l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21.7,0.8-49,1.1-78.1c17.4,1.8,39.9,6.5,39.5,19.1l-0.6,67.4%20c-6.4,0.2-13,0.3-19.8,0.3C195.1,230.1,188.3,230,181.6,229.8%20M249.4,228.2l0.5-38.4c35.1,4.5,64,9.6,64,17.9%20C313.9,217.2,287.5,224.8,249.4,228.2'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 2 | Rockets | 64% | 115 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Mavericks | 44% | 108 | 102 |
 | 21 | Lakers | 56% | 110 | 124 |
Thursday, February 22, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Nets | 31% | 106 | 96 |
| 14 | Hornets | 69% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Knicks | 47% | 108 | 120 |
 | 27 | Magic | 53% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Bulls | 31% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 47% | 110 | 110 |
| 16 | Cavaliers | 53% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Thunder | 72% | 110 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 19% | 110 | 127 |
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Thursday, February 15, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 48% | 108 | 134 |
| 16 | Bucks | 52% | 109 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Lakers | 19% | 107 | 111 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 81% | 120 | 119 |
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 30% | 98 | 102 |
| 5 | 76ers | 70% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 61% | 111 | 104 |
| 28 | Magic | 39% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 26% | 101 | 98 |
| 19 | Pistons | 74% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wizards | 64% | 110 | 118 |
| 27 | Knicks | 36% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 55% | 110 | 108 |
| 24 | Nets | 45% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 36% | 110 | 117 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 64% | 115 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 59% | 105 | 121 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 41% | 102 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 9% | 98 | 91 |
| 2 | Rockets | 91% | 117 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raptors | 68% | 113 | 122 |
| 23 | Bulls | 32% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 40% | 105 | 129 |
| 8 | Celtics | 60% | 109 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Suns | 15% | 99 | 97 |
| 6 | Jazz | 85% | 113 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 69% | 114 | 117 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 108 | 123 |
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 27% | 100 | 112 |
| 3 | Raptors | 73% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cavaliers | 36% | 108 | 120 |
| 9 | Thunder | 64% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 51% | 113 | 126 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 49% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hawks | 31% | 102 | 92 |
| 12 | Bucks | 69% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 31% | 99 | 114 |
| 22 | Mavericks | 69% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Spurs | 36% | 102 | 109 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 64% | 107 | 117 |
Monday, February 12, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 47% | 107 | 118 |
| 15 | Pistons | 53% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 17% | 100 | 92 |
| 6 | 76ers | 83% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 60% | 114 | 114 |
| 26 | Nets | 40% | 111 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 43% | 108 | 101 |
| 25 | Bulls | 57% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Spurs | 35% | 95 | 99 |
| 5 | Jazz | 65% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Suns | 7% | 105 | 83 |
| 1 | Warriors | 93% | 125 | 129 |
Sunday, February 11, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raptors | 58% | 110 | 123 |
| 13 | Hornets | 42% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 31% | 103 | 121 |
| 7 | Celtics | 69% | 110 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 60% | 106 | 115 |
| 24 | Hawks | 40% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 32% | 103 | 113 |
| 17 | Pacers | 68% | 109 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mavericks | 13% | 100 | 97 |
| 2 | Rockets | 87% | 115 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 14% | 99 | 106 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 86% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 33% | 97 | 92 |
| 20 | Thunder | 67% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 51% | 103 | 115 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 102 | 96 |
Saturday, February 10, 2018
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 49% | 110 | 138 |
| 25 | Nets | 51% | 111 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 36% | 107 | 98 |
| 7 | 76ers | 64% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bucks | 58% | 108 | 111 |
| 27 | Magic | 42% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wizards | 67% | 110 | 101 |
| 24 | Bulls | 33% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 22% | 101 | 105 |
| 1 | Warriors | 78% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lakers | 43% | 107 | 123 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 57% | 110 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 66% | 113 | 123 |
| 30 | Suns | 34% | 107 | 113 |