Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, March 19, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Pistons | 46% | 97 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Thunder | 48% | 100 | 115 |
 | 16 | Raptors | 52% | 101 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bobcats | 34% | 90 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Knicks | 58% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 27 | Bulls | 20% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Celtics | 52% | 97 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bucks | 60% | 98 | 114 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Timberwolves | 9% | 91 | 96 |
 | 1 | Lakers | 91% | 109 | 104 |
Thursday, March 18, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Magic | 52% | 94 | 108 |
 | 13 | Heat | 48% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 21% | 98 | 80 | |
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Thunder | 51% | 90 | 92 |
| 17 | Bobcats | 49% | 89 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 14% | 93 | 94 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 86% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 27% | 93 | 97 | |
| 22 | 76ers | 73% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 43% | 100 | 105 |
| 16 | Raptors | 57% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 23% | 93 | 97 |
| 6 | Celtics | 77% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 30% | 92 | 84 |
| 3 | Magic | 70% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 15% | 90 | 106 |
 | 10 | Mavericks | 85% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Rockets | 72% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 10% | 95 | 100 |
| 7 | Jazz | 90% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 42% | 106 | 121 | |
| 18 | Warriors | 58% | 108 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 65% | 98 | 93 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 26 | Clippers | 35% | 93 | 101 |
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 55% | 95 | 94 |
| 23 | Pacers | 45% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 80% | 103 | 113 |
| 25 | Pistons | 20% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spurs | 49% | 93 | 88 |
| 15 | Heat | 51% | 94 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 75% | 99 | 108 |
| 30 | Nets | 25% | 91 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 31% | 95 | 97 |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 69% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 11% | 93 | 87 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 89% | 108 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 17% | 100 | 114 |
| 8 | Suns | 83% | 113 | 152 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 70% | 102 | 106 |
| 24 | Kings | 30% | 95 | 99 |
Monday, March 15, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 46% | 100 | 94 |
| 20 | 76ers | 54% | 101 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 21% | 89 | 93 |
| 6 | Celtics | 79% | 99 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 54% | 103 | 123 |
| 15 | Rockets | 46% | 102 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 14% | 91 | 89 |
| 7 | Jazz | 86% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 109 | 124 |
| 19 | Warriors | 33% | 103 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 49% | 98 | 108 | |
| 26 | Clippers | 51% | 99 | 100 |
Sunday, March 14, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 25% | 93 | 94 |
| 10 | Bucks | 75% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 36% | 92 | 93 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 64% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 34% | 91 | 91 |
| 13 | Heat | 66% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 30% | 88 | 96 |
| 3 | Magic | 70% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 55% | 98 | 111 |
| 15 | Thunder | 45% | 96 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 30% | 101 | 106 | |
| 8 | Suns | 70% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 21% | 95 | 98 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 79% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 32% | 96 | 100 |
| 23 | Kings | 68% | 102 | 114 |
Saturday, March 13, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pistons | 18% | 92 | 99 |
| 10 | Hawks | 82% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 83% | 102 | 109 |
| 29 | Wizards | 17% | 90 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 61% | 104 | 125 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 39% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 18% | 95 | 128 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 82% | 107 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 17% | 92 | 108 | |
| 13 | Rockets | 83% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 17% | 89 | 88 |
| 8 | Spurs | 83% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 43% | 109 | 112 |
| 18 | Warriors | 57% | 112 | 124 |
Friday, March 12, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 27% | 87 | 98 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 73% | 95 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 66% | 98 | 100 |
| 21 | 76ers | 34% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 20% | 91 | 103 |
| 7 | Celtics | 80% | 102 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 19% | 88 | 95 |
| 13 | Heat | 81% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 93 | 87 |
| 25 | Pistons | 68% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 38% | 99 | 112 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 62% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 79% | 103 | 103 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 21% | 92 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 63% | 104 | 102 |
| 20 | Hornets | 37% | 100 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 23% | 89 | 102 | |
| 16 | Thunder | 77% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 51% | 98 | 87 |
| 12 | Bucks | 49% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 51% | 105 | 102 |
| 10 | Suns | 49% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 99 | 110 |
| 23 | Kings | 38% | 95 | 94 |
Thursday, March 11, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 77% | 102 | 105 |
| 29 | Wizards | 23% | 92 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 14% | 90 | 82 |
| 1 | Magic | 86% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 105 | 110 |
| 18 | Warriors | 40% | 102 | 105 |
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 49% | 91 | 102 |
| 20 | 76ers | 51% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Grizzlies | 25% | 91 | 111 |
| 4 | Celtics | 75% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 66% | 102 | 115 |
| 25 | Pistons | 34% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 23% | 89 | 97 |
| 13 | Heat | 77% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 78% | 108 | 110 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 22% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 35% | 94 | 83 | |
| 15 | Thunder | 65% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 16% | 91 | 87 | |
| 11 | Mavericks | 84% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 20% | 94 | 87 |
| 7 | Spurs | 80% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 49% | 103 | 90 |
| 23 | Kings | 51% | 104 | 113 |
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 46% | 89 | 78 |
| 16 | Bobcats | 54% | 90 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 47% | 100 | 96 |
| 22 | Pacers | 53% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 15% | 89 | 87 |
| 2 | Magic | 85% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 68% | 101 | 96 |
| 29 | Wizards | 32% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 65% | 101 | 132 |
| 24 | Bulls | 35% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 49% | 91 | 84 |
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 19% | 92 | 81 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 81% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 21% | 96 | 107 |
| 1 | Lakers | 79% | 106 | 109 |
Monday, March 8, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 51% | 96 | 95 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 49% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 61% | 103 | 98 |
| 22 | Knicks | 39% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 27% | 95 | 101 | |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 73% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 74% | 104 | 125 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 26% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 42% | 104 | 131 |
| 19 | Hornets | 58% | 107 | 135 | |
Sunday, March 7, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 40% | 99 | 114 |
| 17 | Raptors | 60% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 42% | 96 | 94 |
| 2 | Magic | 58% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 51% | 100 | 107 |
| 25 | Pistons | 49% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 12% | 85 | 83 |
| 3 | Celtics | 88% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Thunder | 61% | 98 | 108 |
| 26 | Kings | 39% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 99 | 106 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 63% | 103 | 118 |
Saturday, March 6, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 36% | 95 | 90 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 64% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 45% | 94 | 94 |
| 13 | Heat | 55% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 24% | 95 | 113 | |
| 21 | Knicks | 76% | 104 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 56% | 97 | 122 |
| 24 | Bulls | 44% | 95 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 55% | 100 | 102 |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 45% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rockets | 66% | 104 | 112 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 34% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 59% | 97 | 85 |
| 12 | Bucks | 41% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 21% | 101 | 105 |
| 9 | Suns | 79% | 112 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 15% | 92 | 85 |
| 7 | Jazz | 85% | 106 | 107 |