Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Heat | 28% | 97 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 51% | 95 | 90 |
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Wednesday, December 2, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Pistons | 41% | 91 | 85 |
 | 22 | Bulls | 59% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Raptors | 28% | 100 | 115 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Knicks | 14% | 95 | 104 |
 | 3 | Magic | 86% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bucks | 47% | 100 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Mavericks | 76% | 101 | 117 |
| 29 | Nets | 24% | 91 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Timberwolves | 46% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Thunder | 63% | 96 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 60% | 99 | 102 |
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Tuesday, December 1, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 15% | 91 | 99 | |
 | 4 | Lakers | 85% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 64% | 91 | 108 |
 | 15 | Bobcats | 36% | 86 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 36% | 103 | 106 |
| 13 | Raptors | 64% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 61% | 112 | 99 |
| 22 | Knicks | 39% | 108 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 17% | 104 | 107 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 83% | 117 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 31% | 91 | 107 |
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Monday, November 30, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 47% | 107 | 107 |
| 22 | Warriors | 53% | 108 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Grizzlies | 20% | 96 | 93 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 10 | Jazz | 80% | 107 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 17% | 92 | 102 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 83% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 40% | 94 | 97 |
| 17 | Bucks | 60% | 98 | 99 |
Sunday, November 29, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 48% | 99 | 96 | |
| 28 | Kings | 52% | 100 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 58% | 97 | 88 |
| 21 | Pistons | 42% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 43% | 99 | 88 |
| 25 | Clippers | 57% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 48% | 109 | 113 |
| 13 | Raptors | 52% | 110 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 64% | 96 | 92 |
| 14 | Heat | 36% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 65% | 105 | 114 |
| 22 | Knicks | 35% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 21% | 91 | 89 |
| 6 | Spurs | 79% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 10% | 95 | 106 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 90% | 112 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 47% | 95 | 100 |
| 16 | Thunder | 53% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 14% | 89 | 87 | |
| 3 | Lakers | 86% | 103 | 106 |
Saturday, November 28, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 69% | 109 | 130 |
| 19 | Warriors | 31% | 103 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 95 | 92 |
| 9 | Jazz | 57% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 71% | 102 | 100 |
| 20 | Bucks | 29% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 32% | 94 | 95 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 68% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 45% | 95 | 92 |
| 17 | Wizards | 55% | 96 | 76 |
Friday, November 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 37% | 98 | 94 |
| 13 | Heat | 63% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 52% | 100 | 100 |
| 19 | 76ers | 48% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Raptors | 19% | 93 | 103 |
| 1 | Celtics | 81% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 35% | 91 | 104 |
| 21 | Pistons | 65% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 59% | 103 | 113 |
| 16 | Pacers | 41% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 41% | 94 | 90 |
| 17 | Thunder | 59% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 45% | 98 | 92 |
| 12 | Rockets | 55% | 100 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 19% | 101 | 125 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 81% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 74% | 110 | 120 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 26% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Grizzlies | 16% | 92 | 106 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 84% | 105 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 43% | 96 | 96 | |
| 28 | Kings | 57% | 98 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 62% | 93 | 87 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 38% | 89 | 94 |
Thursday, November 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 31% | 93 | 86 |
| 10 | Jazz | 69% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 46% | 100 | 93 |
| 11 | Hawks | 54% | 101 | 76 |
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 25% | 92 | 99 |
| 4 | Magic | 75% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 40% | 95 | 81 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 60% | 98 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 45% | 99 | 73 |
| 25 | Pacers | 55% | 100 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 13% | 86 | 110 |
| 1 | Celtics | 87% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 66% | 96 | 98 |
| 22 | Pistons | 34% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 76% | 107 | 124 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 24% | 97 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 46% | 101 | 99 |
| 24 | Hornets | 54% | 102 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 37% | 97 | 130 |
| 9 | Rockets | 63% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 21% | 99 | 104 |
| 8 | Spurs | 79% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 22% | 103 | 111 |
| 7 | Suns | 78% | 114 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 11% | 84 | 83 | |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 89% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 44% | 104 | 97 |
| 28 | Kings | 56% | 106 | 111 |
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 17% | 97 | 90 |
| 5 | Lakers | 83% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Thunder | 31% | 91 | 104 |
| 11 | Jazz | 69% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 12% | 91 | 87 | |
| 3 | Nuggets | 88% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 23% | 101 | 111 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 77% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 40% | 99 | 107 |
| 15 | Wizards | 60% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 35% | 102 | 112 |
| 13 | Raptors | 65% | 107 | 123 |
Monday, November 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 43% | 102 | 105 |
| 27 | Grizzlies | 57% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 29% | 95 | 98 |
| 10 | Spurs | 71% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 33% | 97 | 87 |
| 26 | Clippers | 67% | 102 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 25% | 89 | 98 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 98 | 122 |
Sunday, November 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 22% | 90 | 85 |
| 2 | Lakers | 78% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 26% | 99 | 91 |
| 7 | Suns | 74% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 29% | 94 | 101 | |
| 14 | Heat | 71% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 40% | 93 | 88 |
| 17 | Bobcats | 60% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 104 | 107 |
| 24 | Knicks | 22% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 53% | 102 | 104 |
| 12 | Raptors | 47% | 101 | 96 |
Saturday, November 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 18% | 94 | 106 |
| 8 | Rockets | 82% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 52% | 99 | 98 |
| 29 | Nets | 48% | 98 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 20% | 90 | 91 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 80% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 52% | 102 | 103 |
| 27 | Grizzlies | 48% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 56% | 103 | 88 |
| 24 | Hornets | 44% | 101 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 29% | 97 | 84 |
| 12 | Spurs | 71% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 28% | 96 | 93 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 72% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 31% | 92 | 97 |
| 11 | Jazz | 69% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 13% | 88 | 78 |
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 87% | 103 | 106 |
Friday, November 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 62% | 101 | 105 |
| 20 | Pacers | 38% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 74% | 106 | 99 |
| 28 | Clippers | 26% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 107 | 94 |
| 21 | Warriors | 32% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 48% | 92 | 88 |
| 22 | Bucks | 52% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 16% | 92 | 102 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 84% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 52% | 98 | 108 |
| 23 | Thunder | 48% | 97 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 32% | 91 | 83 |
| 1 | Celtics | 68% | 97 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 42% | 100 | 103 |
| 10 | Hawks | 58% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 41% | 98 | 113 |
| 13 | Raptors | 59% | 101 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 34% | 96 | 102 |
| 18 | 76ers | 66% | 102 | 97 |