Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, May 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Magic | 24% | 85 | 95 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 1 | Cavaliers | 76% | 94 | 96 |
Thursday, May 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFC627;}%20.st1{fill:%238B2332;}%20.st2{fill:%230D2240;}%20.st3{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M199.8,50c40,0,77.7,15.6,106.1,44c28.4,28.4,44,66.1,44,106.1c0,82.8-67.3,150.1-150.1,150.1%20c-40.1,0-77.9-15.6-106.2-44c-28.3-28.4-43.9-66.1-43.9-106.2c0-39.9,15.7-77.8,43.9-106.1C122.1,65.6,159.8,50,199.8,50'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M199.8,338.3c76.1,0,138.1-62,138.1-138.3c0-76.1-62-138.2-138.1-138.2c-76.2,0-138.2,62.1-138.2,138.2%20C61.7,276.3,123.7,338.3,199.8,338.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M71.9,200.1c0-70.4,57.4-127.8,127.9-127.8c70.5-0.1,127.9,57.3,127.9,127.8s-57.3,127.9-127.8,127.9%20C129.3,328.1,71.9,270.7,71.9,200.1'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M300.6,146.6l2.8-1.6l-9.2-14.2l-2.5,1.9c-15.6-19.7-43.4-41.7-69.8-45c19.9,9.1,42.3,32.3,55.9,50.2%20l-14.4,10.3l1.8,2.6l-64.8,42.1l-64.8-42.1l1.8-2.6L123,137.7c13.7-17.8,36.1-41,55.9-50.2c-26.4,3.3-54.2,25.2-69.7,44.9l-2.7-1.9%20l-9.2,14.2l2.8,1.7l-0.1,0.1c-11.4,22.4-19.8,57.1-11.6,82.4c-0.2-21.9,11.6-52,22.1-72.1l15.5,8.8l1.6-2.4l60.2,37.8l-79.4,51.6%20l-0.1-0.2l-10.6,2.8l0.1,0.3c-0.5,1.9,0.5,5.7,2.7,9.2c2.2,3.6,5.1,5.9,7.2,6.3l0.2,0.3l7.1-8.6l-0.1-0.2L273.1,163l1.6,2.4%20l15.5-8.8c10.5,20.1,22.3,50.2,22.2,72.1C320.5,203.7,312,169,300.6,146.6'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M292.4,252.5l-0.1,0.2l-73.1-47.5l-12.8,7.6l79.3,50l-0.1,0.2l7,8.6l0.2-0.3c2.1-0.4,5-2.7,7.2-6.3%20c2.2-3.5,3.2-7.2,2.7-9.2l0.1-0.3L292.4,252.5z'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st0'%20points='212.9,100.4%20207.4,107.5%20199.8,89.4%20199.8,173.2%20225.3,140.5%20251,147.1%20'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st3'%20points='212.9,120%20212.9,100.4%20207.4,107.5%20'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st3'%20points='199.8,89.4%20153.5,145.9%20173.8,140.6%20199.8,173.2%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M172.6,300.8c6.5-6.3,14.9-10.1,24-11v-12.6h-34.6C162.7,286.4,166.5,294.6,172.6,300.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M196.4,312.4v-14.8c-6.7,0.8-13,3.6-18,8.3C183.8,309.4,189.9,311.7,196.4,312.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M204.1,235.4v14.8c6.7-0.8,13-3.6,18-8.2C216.9,238.4,210.8,236.1,204.1,235.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M228.1,247.1c-6.5,6.2-14.9,10.1-23.9,10.9v11.4h34.6C237.7,260.9,233.8,253,228.1,247.1'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M196.4,250.2v-14.8c-6.6,0.7-12.8,3-17.9,6.6C183.6,246.6,189.8,249.5,196.4,250.2'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M204.1,277.2v12.6c9,0.9,17.3,4.7,23.9,11c6-6.2,10-14.4,10.7-23.6L204.1,277.2L204.1,277.2z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M161.9,269.4h34.5V258c-9-0.8-17.3-4.8-24-10.9C166.8,253,162.9,260.9,161.9,269.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M204.1,312.4c6.6-0.7,12.8-3,18-6.6c-5-4.7-11.3-7.5-18-8.3V312.4z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 3 | Nuggets | 36% | 98 | 106 |
 | 2 | Lakers | 64% | 102 | 103 |
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 27% | 85 | 107 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 73% | 93 | 106 |
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 35% | 97 | 103 |
| 3 | Lakers | 65% | 102 | 105 |
Sunday, May 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23061922;}%20.st1{fill:%23CE1141;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M249.8,189.4l0.4-33.3c0-15.6-16.3-18.2-28.3-18.1c8-2.7,17.7-7.2,24.7-14.8c7.4-6.8,12.6-16.4,11.7-29.8%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8l-2.3,2.3c-6.2,19.3-9.9,34.7-12.1,49%20c-27.9,4.8-47.5,11.2-47.5,11.2l-2.3,2.3c0,0,22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.3,0.1,57.1,0,109.6c-41.6-1.2-78.1,5.7-87,16.9%20c-2.9,2.4-4.5,5.1-4.4,7.9c0.5,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l2.3-2.3l3.7-49c0-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.3-2.1c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.6,2.2,4.1%20l1.6,64.5l2.3-2.3l4-52.5c0-1.2,0.1-2.1,0.3-2.9c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.8,2.1,4.8l1.8,67.2l2.3-2.3l3.2-97.8c6.1,0.2,12.3,0.3,18.7,0.3%20c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.3-2.3l2.7-53.4c0-1.1,0.1-2,0.3-2.7c1,0.2,2,1.8,2,4.6l2.8,74.9l2.3-2.3l2.8-64.7%20c0-0.9,0.2-1.7,0.4-2.3c1.3,0,2.7,1.6,2.7,4.7l2.3,85.7l2.3-2.3l3.4-143.6c45.4-4,79.9-13.1,88.5-23.7c2.8-2.4,4.4-4.9,4.4-7.4%20C341.4,197.9,299.3,187.1,249.8,189.4%20M152.3,227.9c-36.4-3.5-61-10.9-61-20.2c0-0.7,0.2-1.3,0.6-2c8.5-6,34.7-9.8,60.9-13.7%20c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8L152.3,227.9z%20M226.5,102.5c1.4,10.3-1.6,18.1-6.9,24c-9.5,8.6-24.4,12.5-36.5,14.3%20c0.2-19.4-0.1-39.6-1.8-59.4C204.7,83.9,224.8,89.8,226.5,102.5%20M219.6,229.9c-5.7,0.2-11.5,0.3-17.5,0.3c-7,0-13.9-0.1-20.5-0.4%20l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21,0.7-47.4,1.1-75.6c17.1,2,37.6,6.8,37.3,18.8L219.6,229.9z%20M310.2,213.7c-8.5,6.7-31,11.9-60.8,14.5l0.4-35.8%20c34.1,4.4,61.8,9.4,61.8,17.6C311.6,211.2,311.1,212.5,310.2,213.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M342,211.9c-0.6-14-42.7-24.8-92.2-22.4l0.4-33.3c-0.1-20.6-28.3-18.6-37.8-17.3c11.1-2,48.2-11.3,45.9-45.3%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8c-6.5,20.2-10.3,36.1-12.4,50.9%20c-29,4.8-49.5,11.6-49.5,11.6s22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.7,0.1,57.9,0,112c-49.2-1.7-91.9,7.8-91.4,22.4%20c0.4,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l3.7-49c0.1-6.1,4.7-5.5,4.7-0.3l1.7,64.5l4-52.5c-0.1-7.1,4.9-6.7,4.7-0.4l1.8,67.2%20l3.2-100.2c6.8,0.2,13.8,0.4,20.9,0.4c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.7-53.4c0-6.8,4.6-6.5,4.6-0.4l2.8,74.9l2.8-64.7%20c0.2-6.4,5.3-6.1,5.4,0l2.3,85.7l3.4-145.6v-0.1C303,236.3,342,224.6,342,211.9%20M228.8,100.2c3.8,28.2-25,37.5-45.7,40.6%20c0.2-20.3-0.1-41.4-2-62C205.5,81.2,227,87,228.8,100.2%20M91.3,207.7c0-8.6,31.9-13.2,63.8-18c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8l0.1,4.7%20C116.9,224.7,91.3,217.2,91.3,207.7%20M181.6,229.8l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21.7,0.8-49,1.1-78.1c17.4,1.8,39.9,6.5,39.5,19.1l-0.6,67.4%20c-6.4,0.2-13,0.3-19.8,0.3C195.1,230.1,188.3,230,181.6,229.8%20M249.4,228.2l0.5-38.4c35.1,4.5,64,9.6,64,17.9%20C313.9,217.2,287.5,224.8,249.4,228.2'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 11 | Rockets | 25% | 89 | 70 |
| 3 | Lakers | 75% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 38% | 89 | 101 |
 | 7 | Celtics | 62% | 93 | 82 |
Thursday, May 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 47% | 93 | 80 |
| 12 | Rockets | 53% | 94 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 34% | 89 | 75 |
| 4 | Magic | 66% | 94 | 83 |
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Mavericks | 29% | 96 | 110 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 71% | 104 | 124 |
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 26% | 89 | 78 |
| 3 | Lakers | 74% | 98 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 40% | 91 | 88 |
| 7 | Celtics | 60% | 94 | 92 |
Monday, May 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 42% | 98 | 117 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 58% | 100 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 62% | 92 | 84 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 18 | Hawks | 38% | 88 | 74 |
Sunday, May 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 43% | 92 | 87 |
| 6 | Rockets | 57% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 38% | 90 | 95 |
| 5 | Magic | 62% | 94 | 94 |
Saturday, May 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 59% | 91 | 97 |
| 18 | Hawks | 41% | 88 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 42% | 97 | 106 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 58% | 100 | 105 |