Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 9, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Heat | 44% | 103 | 98 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 56% | 105 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 4 | Suns | 75% | 106 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Knicks | 58% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Raptors | 64% | 102 | 109 |
Saturday, January 8, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 15% | 87 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 36% | 98 | 79 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 64% | 106 | 108 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Timberwolves | 49% | 103 | 114 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 35% | 93 | 101 | |
 | 16 | Magic | 65% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 34 | Hornets | 37% | 95 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Celtics | 48% | 96 | 91 |
 | 30 | Bulls | 52% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Bucks | 65% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 27% | 94 | 101 |
 | 3 | Mavericks | 73% | 102 | 121 |
Friday, January 7, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 39% | 95 | 104 |
 | 14 | Lakers | 61% | 99 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 62% | 100 | 103 |
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Jazz | 40% | 94 | 78 |
| 30 | Bulls | 60% | 98 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | Timberwolves | 72% | 104 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 22% | 87 | 76 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 76% | 105 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Warriors | 42% | 92 | 72 |
| 25 | Nets | 58% | 95 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Pistons | 42% | 91 | 110 |
| 16 | Celtics | 58% | 94 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 35 | Bobcats | 25% | 94 | 91 |
| 15 | Magic | 75% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 36% | 98 | 107 |
| 23 | Raptors | 64% | 103 | 105 |
Thursday, January 6, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 21% | 84 | 98 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 94 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 48% | 104 | 96 | |
| 21 | Wizards | 52% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 37% | 88 | 101 |
| 8 | Pistons | 63% | 92 | 79 |
Wednesday, January 5, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 55% | 105 | 87 | |
| 14 | Magic | 45% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Warriors | 36% | 99 | 83 |
| 15 | Celtics | 64% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 51% | 102 | 93 |
| 25 | Raptors | 49% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 69% | 101 | 84 |
| 35 | Bobcats | 31% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 19% | 92 | 85 |
| 13 | Cavaliers | 81% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Knicks | 19% | 97 | 94 |
| 6 | Heat | 81% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 45% | 95 | 74 | |
| 29 | Bucks | 55% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bulls | 51% | 92 | 95 |
| 34 | Hornets | 49% | 91 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 16% | 96 | 104 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 84% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 54% | 103 | 108 | |
| 18 | Rockets | 46% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 51% | 100 | 106 |
| 31 | Jazz | 49% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 92 | 98 |
| 24 | Clippers | 61% | 96 | 102 |
Tuesday, January 4, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 17% | 88 | 83 |
| 2 | Spurs | 83% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 41% | 104 | 122 | |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 59% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 54% | 104 | 105 |
| 18 | Knicks | 46% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bucks | 25% | 91 | 99 |
| 11 | Pacers | 75% | 100 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 44% | 95 | 88 | |
| 25 | Wizards | 56% | 98 | 112 |
Monday, January 3, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 36% | 100 | 98 | |
| 7 | Heat | 64% | 105 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Jazz | 18% | 91 | 82 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 82% | 103 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 61% | 91 | 87 |
| 32 | Bulls | 39% | 87 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 34% | 93 | 102 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 66% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 39% | 98 | 112 |
| 26 | Warriors | 61% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cavaliers | 62% | 98 | 94 |
| 35 | Bobcats | 38% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 46% | 101 | 94 |
| 23 | Raptors | 54% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 30% | 92 | 90 | |
| 16 | Celtics | 70% | 99 | 108 |
Sunday, January 2, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 36% | 97 | 91 |
| 13 | Lakers | 64% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 56% | 98 | 81 |
| 9 | Kings | 44% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bucks | 16% | 95 | 104 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 84% | 108 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Jazz | 34% | 93 | 80 |
| 22 | Rockets | 66% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 16% | 96 | 98 |
| 5 | Suns | 84% | 108 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 31% | 90 | 88 |
| 8 | Pistons | 69% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 48% | 96 | 83 |
| 27 | Clippers | 52% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 24% | 96 | 101 |
| 26 | Wizards | 76% | 105 | 104 |
Saturday, January 1, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Warriors | 40% | 96 | 88 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 38% | 94 | 93 | |
| 17 | Knicks | 62% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 10% | 90 | 90 |
| 6 | Heat | 90% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 34% | 95 | 104 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 66% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 57% | 99 | 90 |
| 32 | Bulls | 43% | 97 | 105 |
Friday, December 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 34% | 94 | 90 |
| 21 | Rockets | 66% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 95 | 98 |
| 26 | Clippers | 33% | 89 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kings | 64% | 104 | 109 |
| 31 | Jazz | 36% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 41% | 96 | 92 |
| 18 | Nuggets | 59% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 65% | 101 | 103 | |
| 35 | Bobcats | 35% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 36% | 101 | 103 |
| 15 | Celtics | 64% | 106 | 108 |
Thursday, December 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 75% | 105 | 94 | |
| 36 | Hawks | 25% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 43% | 88 | 96 |
| 21 | Nets | 57% | 90 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 94 | 114 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 88 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 43% | 92 | 89 |
| 8 | Pistons | 57% | 94 | 78 |
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 36% | 97 | 105 |
| 24 | Warriors | 64% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Jazz | 42% | 95 | 90 |
| 28 | Clippers | 58% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 66% | 102 | 107 | |
| 34 | Hornets | 34% | 97 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 30% | 95 | 109 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 70% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 58% | 102 | 87 |
| 16 | Knicks | 42% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 30% | 91 | 98 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 70% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bucks | 20% | 98 | 111 |
| 13 | Magic | 80% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 65% | 96 | 74 |
| 35 | Bobcats | 35% | 92 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 60% | 96 | 107 |
| 27 | Wizards | 40% | 92 | 105 |
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 27% | 96 | 114 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 73% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 73% | 100 | 111 |
| 36 | Hawks | 27% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 52% | 97 | 87 |
| 32 | Bucks | 48% | 96 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 41% | 89 | 84 | |
| 31 | Bulls | 59% | 92 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 24% | 98 | 94 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 76% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 34% | 98 | 94 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 66% | 103 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 33% | 97 | 99 |
| 14 | Lakers | 67% | 102 | 117 |
Monday, December 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 30% | 96 | 87 |
| 27 | Wizards | 70% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 46% | 97 | 101 |
| 25 | Warriors | 54% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 40% | 93 | 111 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 58% | 103 | 98 | |
| 29 | Jazz | 42% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 25% | 91 | 76 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Nets | 19% | 79 | 90 | |
| 9 | Pistons | 81% | 90 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 10% | 91 | 102 |
| 6 | Heat | 90% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 14% | 83 | 82 | |
| 11 | Pacers | 86% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 27% | 99 | 119 |
| 14 | Magic | 73% | 107 | 111 |