for complete access.
All Games Wednesday, April 18, 2007
FinalWin Prob.pScore
20
Heat
36%89
68
11
Magic
64%94
94
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
81.98381.3
ORL logo ORL
111.98485.8

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

MagicHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

MagicHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIAORL
Q4 - 0:00.0ORL68
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:09.0MIAWright Dunk (17 PTS) (Payton 7 AST)68
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:14.0ORLArroyo Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:33.0ORLArroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:35.0ORLOutlaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:35.0ORLMISS Outlaw Tip Shot66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:37.0ORLMISS Bogans 3PT Jump Shot66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:51.0ORLOutlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 0:52.0MIAMISS Kapono 26' 3PT Jump Shot66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 1:03ORLOutlaw Layup (2 PTS) (Arroyo 1 AST)66
0%
94
100%
Q4 - 1:11ORLOutlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)66
0%
92
100%
Q4 - 1:13MIAMISS Barron 15' Jump Shot66
0%
92
100%
Q4 - 1:29MIAHeat Rebound66
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 1:29ORLMISS Bogans 25' 3PT Jump Shot66
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 1:50MIABarron REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)66
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 1:50MIABarron Tip Shot (2 PTS)66
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 1:51MIAMISS Simien 5' Running Jump Shot64
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 2:06ORLBogans 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Garrity 1 AST)64
0.1%
92
99.9%
Q4 - 2:23ORLRedick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)64
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 2:25ORLMISS Arroyo 25' 3PT Jump Shot64
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 2:40ORLOutlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)64
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 2:42MIAMISS Simien 19' Jump Shot64
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 2:54ORLRedick Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)64
0.1%
89
99.9%
Q4 - 2:54ORLRedick Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)64
0.1%
88
99.9%
Q4 - 3:13MIAWright Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P5.T15)64
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 3:30ORLGarrity Layup (2 PTS) (Ariza 1 AST)64
0.1%
87
99.9%
Q4 - 3:51MIAKapono 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Payton 6 AST)64
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 3:57MIAHeat Rebound62
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 3:58MIAMISS Barron 12' Jump Shot62
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 4:10ORLAriza Slam Dunk (8 PTS) (Outlaw 2 AST)62
0.1%
85
99.9%
Q4 - 4:29MIAWright 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Payton 5 AST)62
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 4:49MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)59
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 4:50ORLMISS Ariza Free Throw 2 of 259
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 4:50ORLMISS Ariza Free Throw 1 of 259
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 4:57ORLArroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)59
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 4:59MIAMISS Simien 16' Turnaround Jump Shot59
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 5:19ORLRedick 21' Jump Shot (8 PTS)59
0.1%
83
99.9%
Q4 - 5:37ORLAriza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)59
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 5:38MIAMISS Wright Free Throw 1 of 159
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 5:46MIABarron REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)57
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 5:48MIAMISS Payton 8' Running Jump Shot57
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 6:06ORLDooling Double Dribble Turnover (P1.T10)57
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 6:22MIAWright Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)57
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 6:22MIAWright Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)56
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 6:49ORLArroyo 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Dooling 5 AST)55
0.1%
81
99.9%
Q4 - 7:09MIADoleac 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Payton 4 AST)55
0.1%
78
99.9%
Q4 - 7:28ORLRedick 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Dooling 4 AST)53
0.1%
78
99.9%
Q4 - 7:36MIADooling STEAL (3 STL)53
0.1%
75
99.9%
Q4 - 7:57ORLRedick 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Dooling 3 AST)53
0.2%
75
99.8%
Q4 - 8:17MIAWalker Layup (8 PTS) (Wright 4 AST)53
0.4%
72
99.6%
Q4 - 8:30ORLMAGIC Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)51
0.3%
72
99.7%
Q4 - 8:30ORLMAGIC Rebound51
0.2%
72
99.8%
Q4 - 8:30ORLMISS Dooling 27' 3PT Jump Shot51
0.3%
72
99.7%
Q4 - 8:45ORLDooling Free Throw Technical (4 PTS)51
0.2%
72
99.8%
Q4 - 8:59ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:11)51
0.3%
71
99.7%
Q4 - 9:01MIAMISS Doleac 17' Jump Shot51
0.5%
71
99.5%
Q4 - 9:18ORLAriza Driving Dunk (6 PTS) (Dooling 2 AST)51
0.5%
71
99.5%
Q4 - 9:22ORLAriza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)51
0.7%
69
99.3%
Q4 - 9:24MIAAriza BLOCK (1 BLK)51
0.7%
69
99.3%
Q4 - 9:42ORLAriza Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)51
0.9%
69
99.1%
Q4 - 9:42ORLAriza Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)51
0.9%
68
99.1%
Q4 - 9:45ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:10)51
1.1%
67
98.9%
Q4 - 9:47MIAHoward BLOCK (1 BLK)51
1.2%
67
98.8%
Q4 - 9:56MIAPayton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)51
1.4%
67
98.6%
Q4 - 9:59ORLMISS Dooling 19' Jump Shot51
1.3%
67
98.7%
Q4 - 10:21MIADoleac 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Simien 1 AST)51
1.3%
67
98.7%
Q4 - 10:34ORLHoward Traveling Turnover (P3.T8)49
1.1%
67
98.9%
Q4 - 10:56MIAWright 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS)49
0.8%
67
99.2%
Q4 - 11:13ORLArroyo 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS)47
0.8%
67
99.2%
Q4 - 11:19ORLOutlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)47
1.0%
65
99.0%
Q4 - 11:21MIAMISS Walker 24' 3PT Jump Shot47
1.1%
65
98.9%
Q4 - 11:42MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)47
1.3%
65
98.7%
Q4 - 11:44ORLMISS Ariza 20' Jump Shot47
1.2%
65
98.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0ORL47
1.0%
65
99.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0ORLMAGIC Rebound47
1.0%
65
99.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0ORLMISS Arroyo Layup47
1.2%
65
98.8%
Q3 - 0:17.0MIASimien 17' Jump Shot (10 PTS)47
1.3%
65
98.7%
Q3 - 0:31.0ORLTurkoglu Free Throw 3 of 3 (15 PTS)45
1.0%
65
99.0%
Q3 - 0:31.0ORLTurkoglu Free Throw 2 of 3 (14 PTS)45
1.1%
64
98.9%
Q3 - 0:31.0ORLTurkoglu Free Throw 1 of 3 (13 PTS)45
1.1%
63
98.9%
Q3 - 0:53.0ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)45
1.5%
62
98.5%
Q3 - 0:55.0MIAMISS Doleac 5' Hook Shot45
1.6%
62
98.4%
Q3 - 1:16ORLTurkoglu Traveling Turnover (P1.T7)45
2.2%
62
97.8%
Q3 - 1:22ORLMAGIC Rebound45
1.8%
62
98.2%
Q3 - 1:23ORLMISS Turkoglu Free Throw 2 of 245
2.2%
62
97.8%
Q3 - 1:23ORLMISS Turkoglu Free Throw 1 of 245
1.9%
62
98.1%
Q3 - 1:45ORLOutlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)45
1.8%
62
98.2%
Q3 - 1:47MIAMISS Quinn 20' Jump Shot45
1.9%
62
98.1%
Q3 - 2:11MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)45
2.5%
62
97.5%
Q3 - 2:13ORLMISS Nelson 3PT Jump Shot45
2.4%
62
97.6%
Q3 - 2:41MIASimien 8' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS) (Wright 3 AST)45
2.1%
62
97.9%
Q3 - 3:04ORLTurkoglu 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Nelson 6 AST)43
2.0%
62
98.0%
Q3 - 3:16ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)43
2.8%
59
97.2%
Q3 - 3:18MIAMISS Wright 9' Hook Shot43
2.9%
59
97.1%
Q3 - 3:41ORLHoward Alley Oop Dunk (12 PTS) (Hill 3 AST)43
3.3%
59
96.7%
Q3 - 3:54ORLMAGIC Rebound43
3.9%
57
96.1%
Q3 - 3:56MIAMISS Haslem 16' Jump Shot43
4.1%
57
95.9%
Q3 - 4:04MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)43
5.1%
57
94.9%
Q3 - 4:06ORLMISS Battie 12' Jump Shot43
4.8%
57
95.2%
Q3 - 4:18ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)43
4.2%
57
95.8%
Q3 - 4:20ORLMISS Turkoglu 25' 3PT Jump Shot43
4.8%
57
95.2%
Q3 - 4:26ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)43
4.2%
57
95.8%
Q3 - 4:28MIAMISS Quinn 18' Jump Shot43
4.4%
57
95.6%
Q3 - 4:46ORLHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)43
5.1%
57
94.9%
Q3 - 4:46ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 243
5.3%
56
94.7%
Q3 - 4:55MIATurkoglu STEAL (2 STL)43
4.9%
56
95.1%
Q3 - 5:18ORLTurkoglu 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Battie 2 AST)43
6.4%
56
93.6%
Q3 - 5:33MIAMourning 3 Second Violation Turnover (P3.T12)43
8.6%
53
91.4%
Q3 - 5:55ORLHoward Alley Oop Layup (9 PTS) (Nelson 5 AST)43
10.1%
53
89.9%
Q3 - 6:15MIAPayton 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Kapono 1 AST)43
12.0%
51
88.0%
Q3 - 6:43ORLNelson Layup (8 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)40
9.1%
51
90.9%
Q3 - 6:46MIATurkoglu STEAL (1 STL)40
10.4%
49
89.6%
Q3 - 6:53MIAKapono REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)40
12.1%
49
87.9%
Q3 - 6:55ORLMISS Battie 17' Jump Shot40
11.6%
49
88.4%
Q3 - 7:05ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)40
10.7%
49
89.3%
Q3 - 7:06MIAMISS Mourning 6' Hook Shot40
11.2%
49
88.8%
Q3 - 7:29ORLHill Driving Dunk (17 PTS) (Nelson 4 AST)40
12.5%
49
87.5%
Q3 - 7:33MIAHill STEAL (1 STL)40
14.0%
47
86.0%
Q3 - 7:49ORLTurkoglu Driving Layup (6 PTS)40
16.3%
47
83.7%
Q3 - 8:09MIAHaslem 18' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Walker 1 AST)40
18.5%
45
81.5%
Q3 - 8:29ORLTurkoglu 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Hill 2 AST)38
16.6%
45
83.4%
Q3 - 8:35ORLHill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)38
18.5%
43
81.5%
Q3 - 8:36MIAMISS Kapono 20' Jump Shot38
19.3%
43
80.7%
Q3 - 8:54ORLHill 13' Jump Shot (15 PTS)38
21.2%
43
78.8%
Q3 - 9:15ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)38
23.5%
41
76.5%
Q3 - 9:15MIAMISS Haslem Free Throw 2 of 238
23.9%
41
76.1%
Q3 - 9:15MIAHaslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)38
25.6%
41
74.4%
Q3 - 9:23MIAPayton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)37
23.6%
41
76.4%
Q3 - 9:25ORLMISS Battie 12' Turnaround Jump Shot37
22.8%
41
77.2%
Q3 - 9:34ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)37
21.0%
41
79.0%
Q3 - 9:36MIAMISS Mourning 5' Hook Shot37
21.8%
41
78.2%
Q3 - 9:55ORLBattie Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)37
23.6%
41
76.4%
Q3 - 9:55ORLBattie Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)37
24.4%
40
75.6%
Q3 - 10:10MIAMourning Traveling Turnover (P2.T9)37
26.1%
39
73.9%
Q3 - 10:34MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)37
29.3%
39
70.7%
Q3 - 10:36ORLMISS Howard Layup37
28.3%
39
71.7%
Q3 - 10:58ORLBattie REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)37
26.1%
39
73.9%
Q3 - 11:00MIAMISS Mourning 9' Hook Shot37
27.0%
39
73.0%
Q3 - 11:12MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)37
29.0%
39
71.0%
Q3 - 11:14ORLMISS Howard 9' Hook Shot37
28.1%
39
71.9%
Q3 - 11:36ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)37
26.2%
39
73.8%
Q3 - 11:38MIAMISS Payton 26' 3PT Jump Shot37
27.0%
39
73.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORL37
29.1%
39
70.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORLMAGIC Rebound37
26.1%
39
73.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0ORLMISS Nelson 23' Jump Shot37
28.2%
39
71.8%
Q2 - 0:05.0ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)37
26.9%
39
73.1%
Q2 - 0:07.0MIAMISS Mourning 3' Hook Shot37
27.5%
39
72.5%
Q2 - 0:21.0MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)37
28.7%
39
71.3%
Q2 - 0:23.0MIAMISS Walker 26' 3PT Jump Shot37
27.4%
39
72.6%
Q2 - 0:37.0MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)37
28.7%
39
71.3%
Q2 - 0:39.0ORLMISS Hill 17' Jump Shot37
28.2%
39
71.8%
Q2 - 0:50.0MIAHaslem 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)37
26.8%
39
73.2%
Q2 - 1:11MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)35
23.7%
39
76.3%
Q2 - 1:13ORLMISS Redick 3PT Jump Shot35
23.3%
39
76.7%
Q2 - 1:29ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)35
22.5%
39
77.5%
Q2 - 1:31MIAMISS Walker 27' 3PT Jump Shot35
22.8%
39
77.2%
Q2 - 1:53ORLJump Ball Battie vs. Mourning: Tip to Walker35
23.7%
39
76.3%
Q2 - 1:53ORLMISS Battie Dunk35
23.3%
39
76.7%
Q2 - 1:54ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)35
22.5%
39
77.5%
Q2 - 1:56ORLMISS Redick 21' Jump Shot35
23.3%
39
76.7%
Q2 - 2:18MIAKapono Traveling Turnover (P1.T8)35
22.3%
39
77.7%
Q2 - 2:28ORLHill Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)35
24.3%
39
75.7%
Q2 - 2:28ORLHill Layup (12 PTS)35
26.7%
38
73.3%
Q2 - 2:31ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)35
29.4%
36
70.6%
Q2 - 2:33MIAMISS Wright 18' Jump Shot35
30.2%
36
69.8%
Q2 - 2:54ORLHoward Alley Oop Dunk (7 PTS) (Battie 1 AST)35
31.8%
36
68.2%
Q2 - 3:13MIAWright Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Payton 3 AST)35
34.2%
34
65.8%
Q2 - 3:24MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)33
31.9%
34
68.1%
Q2 - 3:25ORLMISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 233
31.5%
34
68.5%
Q2 - 3:25ORLHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)33
30.2%
34
69.8%
Q2 - 3:31MIASimien Layup (6 PTS) (Wright 2 AST)33
31.6%
33
68.4%
Q2 - 3:40MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)31
29.4%
33
70.6%
Q2 - 3:42ORLMISS Bogans 21' Jump Shot31
28.5%
33
71.5%
Q2 - 3:59MIABarron 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T7)31
26.7%
33
73.3%
Q2 - 4:18MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)31
29.1%
33
70.9%
Q2 - 4:19ORLMISS Arroyo Free Throw 1 of 131
28.8%
33
71.2%
Q2 - 4:34ORLDooling REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)31
31.5%
31
68.5%
Q2 - 4:36ORLMISS Bogans 3PT Jump Shot31
33.3%
31
66.7%
Q2 - 4:57MIAWright Reverse Dunk (4 PTS) (Quinn 2 AST)31
31.5%
31
68.5%
Q2 - 5:01ORLHoward Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T6)29
29.1%
31
70.9%
Q2 - 5:01ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)29
26.6%
31
73.4%
Q2 - 5:04ORLMISS Bogans 3PT Jump Shot29
28.4%
31
71.6%
Q2 - 5:19MIAWright Offensive Goaltending Turnover (P2.T6)29
26.7%
31
73.3%
Q2 - 5:44MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)29
29.1%
31
70.9%
Q2 - 5:46ORLMISS Arroyo Free Throw 1 of 129
28.8%
31
71.2%
Q2 - 5:48MIADooling STEAL (2 STL)29
31.3%
29
68.7%
Q2 - 6:14ORLDooling Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)29
34.0%
29
66.0%
Q2 - 6:14ORLMISS Dooling Free Throw 1 of 229
34.4%
28
65.6%
Q2 - 6:39MIAWright Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)29
33.5%
28
66.5%
Q2 - 6:39MIAWright Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)28
33.0%
28
67.0%
Q2 - 6:39MIAWright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
31.6%
28
68.4%
Q2 - 6:40MIAMISS Barron 9' Hook Shot27
29.7%
28
70.3%
Q2 - 7:01ORLGarrity Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)27
31.5%
28
68.5%
Q2 - 7:13ORLDooling REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)27
29.1%
28
70.9%
Q2 - 7:15MIAMISS Barron 19' Jump Shot27
29.8%
28
70.2%
Q2 - 7:28MIAKapono REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)27
31.5%
28
68.5%
Q2 - 7:31ORLMISS Dooling 19' Jump Shot27
30.8%
28
69.2%
Q2 - 7:38ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)27
29.1%
28
70.9%
Q2 - 7:39MIAMISS Kapono 15' Jump Shot27
29.8%
28
70.2%
Q2 - 7:57ORLDooling 12' Jump Shot (2 PTS)27
31.5%
28
68.5%
Q2 - 8:02ORLDooling REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 8:05ORLMISS Garrity 25' 3PT Jump Shot27
35.2%
26
64.8%
Q2 - 8:22ORLJump Ball Dooling vs. Quinn: Tip to Ariza27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 8:22MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)27
36.1%
26
63.9%
Q2 - 8:23ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 8:23ORLMISS Turkoglu Tip Shot27
35.2%
26
64.8%
Q2 - 8:23ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 8:23ORLMISS Turkoglu Tip Shot27
35.2%
26
64.8%
Q2 - 8:24ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 8:24ORLMISS Turkoglu Tip Shot27
35.2%
26
64.8%
Q2 - 8:26ORLMISS Turkoglu Layup27
35.2%
26
64.8%
Q2 - 8:27ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 8:29ORLMISS Dooling 6' Hook Shot27
35.2%
26
64.8%
Q2 - 8:46MIAKapono 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS)27
33.4%
26
66.6%
Q2 - 9:07ORLAriza Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)25
31.2%
26
68.8%
Q2 - 9:07ORLAriza Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)25
31.9%
25
68.1%
Q2 - 9:27MIAQuinn Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)25
33.2%
24
66.8%
Q2 - 9:27MIAQuinn Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)24
32.7%
24
67.3%
Q2 - 9:41MIAWright REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
31.2%
24
68.8%
Q2 - 9:42ORLMISS Ariza Driving Layup23
30.5%
24
69.5%
Q2 - 9:55ORLAriza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)23
28.9%
24
71.1%
Q2 - 9:57MIAMISS Payton 12' Jump Shot23
29.6%
24
70.4%
Q2 - 10:19ORLTurkoglu 10' Jump Shot (2 PTS)23
31.3%
24
68.7%
Q2 - 10:31ORLAriza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)23
33.2%
22
66.8%
Q2 - 10:33MIAMISS Payton 3PT Jump Shot23
33.9%
22
66.1%
Q2 - 10:44MIAQuinn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
35.7%
22
64.3%
Q2 - 10:45ORLMISS Arroyo Layup23
34.9%
22
65.1%
Q2 - 10:52MIAAriza STEAL (1 STL)23
33.2%
22
66.8%
Q2 - 11:16ORLMAGIC Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)23
35.1%
22
64.9%
Q2 - 11:48MIAWright Foul Turnover (P1.T2)23
32.9%
22
67.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORL23
35.1%
22
64.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORLMAGIC Rebound23
32.9%
22
67.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0ORLMISS Hill 21' Jump Shot23
34.5%
22
65.5%
Q1 - 0:03.0MIASimien 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)23
33.0%
22
67.0%
Q1 - 0:13.0ORLNelson 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS)21
30.4%
22
69.6%
Q1 - 0:32.0MIAQuinn 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wright 1 AST)21
33.0%
20
67.0%
Q1 - 0:52.0ORLBattie 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Hill 1 AST)18
28.5%
20
71.5%
Q1 - 1:14MIAWalker Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS)18
30.9%
18
69.1%
Q1 - 1:18ORLNelson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)15
26.6%
18
73.4%
Q1 - 1:30MIASimien Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)15
25.2%
18
74.8%
Q1 - 1:30MIASimien Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)14
24.9%
18
75.1%
Q1 - 1:37MIAHeat Rebound13
23.1%
18
76.9%
Q1 - 1:38MIAMISS Walker 24' 3PT Jump Shot13
22.2%
18
77.8%
Q1 - 1:57ORLHill Layup (10 PTS) (Nelson 3 AST)13
23.1%
18
76.9%
Q1 - 2:02ORLHill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)13
25.2%
16
74.8%
Q1 - 2:04MIAMISS Walker 18' Jump Shot13
25.7%
16
74.3%
Q1 - 2:27MIAHeat Rebound13
26.8%
16
73.2%
Q1 - 2:28ORLMISS Battie 5' Hook Shot13
26.3%
16
73.7%
Q1 - 2:43ORLHill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)13
25.2%
16
74.8%
Q1 - 2:46MIAHill BLOCK (1 BLK)13
25.7%
16
74.3%
Q1 - 2:51ORLAriza Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)13
26.8%
16
73.2%
Q1 - 2:53ORLAriza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)13
25.2%
16
74.8%
Q1 - 2:55MIAMISS Quinn 21' Jump Shot13
25.7%
16
74.3%
Q1 - 3:20ORLHill Reverse Layup (8 PTS) (Outlaw 1 AST)13
27.0%
16
73.0%
Q1 - 3:41ORLMAGIC Rebound13
28.6%
14
71.4%
Q1 - 3:41ORLMISS Ariza 15' Turnaround Jump Shot13
30.0%
14
70.0%
Q1 - 3:48ORLAriza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)13
28.6%
14
71.4%
Q1 - 3:51ORLMISS Nelson 18' Jump Shot13
30.0%
14
70.0%
Q1 - 4:10ORLBattie REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)13
28.3%
14
71.7%
Q1 - 4:12ORLMISS Turkoglu 25' 3PT Jump Shot13
29.8%
14
70.2%
Q1 - 4:23MIAPayton Driving Layup (2 PTS)13
28.3%
14
71.7%
Q1 - 4:38ORLNelson 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS)11
26.9%
14
73.1%
Q1 - 4:55MIAWalker 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Payton 2 AST)11
28.3%
12
71.7%
Q1 - 5:01MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)8
25.1%
12
74.9%
Q1 - 5:03ORLMISS Turkoglu Driving Layup8
24.6%
12
75.4%
Q1 - 5:16MIAHaslem 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Payton 1 AST)8
23.4%
12
76.6%
Q1 - 5:26MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)6
22.1%
12
77.9%
Q1 - 5:27ORLMISS Hill 18' Jump Shot6
21.6%
12
78.4%
Q1 - 5:38MIAMourning 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T1)6
20.5%
12
79.5%
Q1 - 5:49ORLHill Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)6
22.1%
12
77.9%
Q1 - 5:49ORLMISS Hill Free Throw 1 of 26
22.3%
11
77.7%
Q1 - 5:51ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)6
21.9%
11
78.1%
Q1 - 5:53MIAMISS Haslem 17' Jump Shot6
22.4%
11
77.6%
Q1 - 6:20ORLHill 17' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Nelson 2 AST)6
23.6%
11
76.4%
Q1 - 6:28ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)6
25.0%
9
75.0%
Q1 - 6:30MIAMISS Walker 24' 3PT Jump Shot6
25.5%
9
74.5%
Q1 - 6:36MIAMourning REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
26.7%
9
73.3%
Q1 - 6:38ORLMISS Hill 10' Jump Bank Shot6
26.2%
9
73.8%
Q1 - 6:53MIAKapono Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)6
25.0%
9
75.0%
Q1 - 6:53MIAKapono Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)5
24.9%
9
75.1%
Q1 - 7:16ORLNelson 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)4
23.9%
9
76.1%
Q1 - 7:18ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)4
25.1%
7
74.9%
Q1 - 7:24MIAMISS Walker 21' Jump Shot4
25.6%
7
74.4%
Q1 - 7:27MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)4
26.7%
7
73.3%
Q1 - 7:30ORLMISS Howard Layup4
26.2%
7
73.8%
Q1 - 7:44MIAKapono 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)4
25.1%
7
74.9%
Q1 - 8:10ORLHoward Layup (4 PTS) (Turkoglu 1 AST)2
23.9%
7
76.1%
Q1 - 8:20ORLBattie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)2
25.1%
5
74.9%
Q1 - 8:22MIAMISS Kapono 18' Fadeaway Jumper2
25.6%
5
74.4%
Q1 - 8:44MIAWalker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
26.7%
5
73.3%
Q1 - 8:45ORLMISS Hill Free Throw 2 of 22
26.5%
5
73.5%
Q1 - 8:45ORLHill Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)2
25.5%
5
74.5%
Q1 - 8:47ORLBattie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
26.6%
4
73.4%
Q1 - 8:50MIABattie BLOCK (1 BLK)2
27.1%
4
72.9%
Q1 - 9:07MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)2
28.2%
4
71.8%
Q1 - 9:08MIAMISS Kapono 20' Jump Shot2
26.8%
4
73.2%
Q1 - 9:21MIAHaslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
28.2%
4
71.8%
Q1 - 9:23ORLMISS Turkoglu 17' Jump Shot2
27.6%
4
72.4%
Q1 - 9:39ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)2
26.3%
4
73.7%
Q1 - 9:42MIAMISS Haslem 15' Jump Shot2
26.9%
4
73.1%
Q1 - 9:59ORLHoward Dunk (2 PTS)2
28.2%
4
71.8%
Q1 - 10:00ORLHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)2
29.3%
2
70.7%
Q1 - 10:02ORLMISS Turkoglu Driving Layup2
30.6%
2
69.4%
Q1 - 10:09ORLTurkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
29.3%
2
70.7%
Q1 - 10:11MIAMISS Payton 3PT Jump Shot2
29.9%
2
70.1%
Q1 - 10:38ORLHill Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Nelson 1 AST)2
31.1%
2
68.9%
Q1 - 10:43ORLNelson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
32.5%
0
67.5%
Q1 - 10:44MIAMISS Mourning 15' Jump Shot2
33.1%
0
66.9%
Q1 - 10:58MIAKapono REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
34.4%
0
65.6%
Q1 - 11:00ORLMISS Turkoglu 19' Jump Shot2
33.8%
0
66.2%
Q1 - 11:21MIAMourning 7' Hook Shot (2 PTS)2
32.6%
0
67.4%
Q1 - 11:38ORLHoward Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)0
30.9%
0
69.1%
Q1 - 12:00ORLJump Ball Howard vs. Mourning: Tip to Nelson0
29.4%
0
70.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.91 45.3%
ORL
0.96 48.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
9
16
56%
ORL
18
32
56%
Midrange
MIA
13
40
33%
ORL
11
30
37%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
4
6.0
13
31%
46%
ORL
6
9.0
17
35%
53%
Free Throws
MIA
12
14
86%
ORL
18
29
62%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. Wright1777%8.5 / 11
W. Simien1063%5.0 / 8
J. Kapono844%4.0 / 9
A. Walker836%4.0 / 11
U. Haslem750%3.5 / 7
G. Payton536%2.5 / 7
C. Quinn550%2.5 / 5
M. Doleac440%2.0 / 5
A. Mourning214%1.0 / 7
E. Barron220%1.0 / 5
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
ORL logo Magic
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
G. Hill1761%8.5 / 14
H. Turkoglu1544%7.5 / 17
D. Howard1260%6.0 / 10
J. Redick1083%5.0 / 6
C. Arroyo964%4.5 / 7
J. Nelson857%4.0 / 7
T. Ariza850%4.0 / 8
T. Battie429%2.0 / 7
K. Dooling433%2.0 / 6
K. Bogans325%1.5 / 6
B. Outlaw250%1.0 / 2
P. Garrity250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
68
+7
-15
75
ORL
75
+21
-9
96
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.91 45.3%
ORL
0.96 48.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
104.2
105.1
MIA 81.9 +30.0
ORL 111.9
Pace
90.1
89.8
MIA 81.3
ORL 85.8 +4.6
Avg. Poss. Time
16.5
16.2
MIA 17.7
ORL 16.8 +0.9
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
50.6%
50.0%
MIA 40.6%
ORL 48.1% +7.5%
TO %
15.3%
18.0%
MIA 16.6%
ORL 10.7% +5.9%
ORB %
24.9%
29.3%
MIA 11.9%
ORL 36.6% +24.7%
FTrt
32.1
39.3
MIA 20.3
ORL 36.7 +16.4
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
57.6%
53.0%
MIA 61.5%
ORL 65.7% +4.2%
STL %
7.6%
7.6%
MIA 7.2%
ORL 8.3% +1.1%
BLK %
8.8%
8.5%
MIA 8.1% +1.0%
ORL 7.1%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.16 and 2.16.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
52.4%
53.0%
MIA 45.3%
ORL 48.0% +2.7%
Rim FG%
61.8%
61.6%
MIA 56.3%
ORL 56.3%
Mid FG%
40.5%
38.3%
MIA 32.5%
ORL 36.7% +4.2%
3P %
34.3%
35.6%
MIA 30.8%
ORL 35.3% +4.5%
FT %
69.0%
70.2%
MIA 85.7% +23.6%
ORL 62.1%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
34.9%
40.1%
MIA 23.2%
ORL 40.5% +17.3%
Mid Att. %
40.7%
44.1%
MIA 58.0%
ORL 38.0% +20.0%
3P Att. %
24.5%
15.8%
MIA 18.8%
ORL 21.5% +2.7%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.
Game TotalsMIAORL
Possessions8384
Possession Minutes24.523.5
Points6894
Rebounds3152
Assists1623
Steals67
Blocks54
Turnovers (Team)15 (0)9 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)5 (2)15 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)26 (3)37 (1)
Field Goals26-6935-79
At-the-Rim FG9-1618-32
Midrange FG13-4011-30
2-Point FG22-5629-62
3-Point FG4-136-17
Free Throws12-1418-29
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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20 Miami Heat
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
Gary Payton
G · 6'4" 190 · 39
35.4
5
36%
2
7
2
0
1
2
0
2
0-0
-
1-3
33%
1-4
25%
Jason Kapono
G · 6'8" 215 · 26
31.7
8
44%
3
1
1
0
1
3
0
3
2-2
100%
3-7
43%
0-1
0%
Antoine Walker
F · 6'9" 245 · 31
29.4
8
36%
4
1
1
0
2
2
0
4
1-1
100%
2-5
40%
1-6
17%
Udonis Haslem
F · 6'8" 235 · 27
20.2
7
50%
8
0
0
1
0
2
2
6
1-2
50%
3-6
50%
0-0
-
Alonzo Mourning
C · 6'10" 261 · 37
18.9
2
14%
1
0
0
3
3
1
0
1
0-0
-
1-7
14%
0-0
-
Dorell Wright
F-G · 6'9" 205 · 21
34.9
17
77%
8
4
0
1
5
4
1
7
4-5
80%
5-8
63%
1-1
100%
Wayne Simien
F · 6'9" 250 · 24
25.9
10
63%
0
1
1
0
1
2
0
0
2-2
100%
4-7
57%
0-0
-
Chris Quinn
G · 6'2" 175 · 24
17.7
5
50%
3
2
1
0
1
2
0
3
2-2
100%
0-3
0%
1-1
100%
Michael Doleac
C · 6'11" 262 · 30
15.2
4
40%
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0-0
-
2-5
40%
0-0
-
Earl Barron
F-C · 7'0" 250 · 26
10.8
2
20%
2
0
0
0
1
3
2
0
0-0
-
1-5
20%
0-0
-
Jason Williams
G · 6'1" 180 · 31
Eddie Jones
G-F · 6'6" 200 · 35
Shaquille O'Neal
#32 · C · 7'1" 325 · 35
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
Dwyane Wade
#3 · G · 6'4" 220 · 25
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
James Posey
#42 · F · 6'8" 217 · 30
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
68
45%
31
16
6
5
15
0
5
26
12-14
86%
22-56
39%
4-13
31%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.