Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, June 7, 2007

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	8	Cavaliers	27%	84	76
	3	Spurs	73%	92	85

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
CLE	96.2	79	88.0
SAS	106.3	80	72.6

Scoring Opportunities

CLE

+11

-11

SAS

+18

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CLE

0.95 47.5%

SAS

1.01 50.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	CLE	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		76 0%	85 100%
Q4 - 0:12.0	CLE	Gibson 15' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	76 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (27 PTS)	74 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	CLE	Gibson 21' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	74 0.1%	82 99.9%
Q4 - 0:54.0	SAS	Duncan 1' Dunk (24 PTS) (Horry 6 AST)	72 0.1%	82 99.9%
Q4 - 1:10	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)	72 0.4%	80 99.6%
Q4 - 1:12	CLE	MISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot	72 0.5%	80 99.5%
Q4 - 1:29	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T14)	72 1.0%	80 99.0%
Q4 - 1:53	CLE	Gibson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (James 4 AST)	72 0.8%	80 99.2%
Q4 - 2:05	CLE	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	69 0.4%	80 99.6%
Q4 - 2:07	SAS	MISS Parker 4' Driving Layup	69 0.3%	80 99.7%
Q4 - 2:13	CLE	Parker STEAL (2 STL)	69 0.2%	80 99.8%
Q4 - 2:27	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	69 0.4%	80 99.6%
Q4 - 2:27	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	69 0.4%	79 99.6%
Q4 - 2:49	CLE	Pavlovic 1' Reverse Layup (13 PTS) (Gibson 4 AST)	69 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 2:56	SAS	Horry Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	67 0.6%	78 99.4%
Q4 - 3:11	CLE	Parker STEAL (1 STL)	67 0.3%	78 99.7%
Q4 - 3:15	CLE	Pavlovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	67 0.6%	78 99.4%
Q4 - 3:16	CLE	MISS Pavlovic Free Throw 2 of 2	67 0.4%	78 99.6%
Q4 - 3:16	CLE	Pavlovic Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	67 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 3:33	SAS	Parker Foul Turnover (P3.T12)	66 0.8%	78 99.2%
Q4 - 3:47	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:5 Def:8)	66 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 3:49	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	66 0.6%	78 99.4%
Q4 - 3:57	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	66 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 3:59	CLE	MISS Gooden 12' Fadeaway Jumper	66 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 4:13	CLE	Cavaliers Rebound	66 0.7%	78 99.3%
Q4 - 4:13	CLE	Duncan BLOCK (5 BLK)	66 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 4:20	SAS	Bowen Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T11)	66 0.7%	78 99.3%
Q4 - 4:46	CLE	Varejao 2' Dunk (10 PTS) (James 3 AST)	66 0.4%	78 99.6%
Q4 - 5:06	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (22 PTS)	64 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 5:08	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)	64 0.7%	76 99.3%
Q4 - 5:10	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	64 0.9%	76 99.1%
Q4 - 5:37	CLE	Pavlovic 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	64 0.7%	76 99.3%
Q4 - 5:50	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	62 0.5%	76 99.5%
Q4 - 5:52	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Fadeaway Jumper	62 0.5%	76 99.5%
Q4 - 6:19	CLE	James 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS)	62 0.5%	76 99.5%
Q4 - 6:38	SAS	Parker 2' Layup (24 PTS)	59 0.3%	76 99.7%
Q4 - 6:54	CLE	James 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS)	59 0.4%	74 99.6%
Q4 - 7:15	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)	56 0.4%	74 99.6%
Q4 - 7:15	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)	56 0.4%	73 99.6%
Q4 - 7:31	CLE	Varejao REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	56 0.4%	72 99.6%
Q4 - 7:31	CLE	Varejao 1' Layup (8 PTS)	56 0.4%	72 99.6%
Q4 - 7:33	CLE	MISS Pavlovic 3' Layup	54 0.3%	72 99.7%
Q4 - 7:52	CLE	Cavaliers Rebound	54 0.3%	72 99.7%
Q4 - 7:54	SAS	MISS Parker 17' Jump Shot	54 0.3%	72 99.7%
Q4 - 8:22	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	54 0.4%	72 99.6%
Q4 - 8:24	CLE	MISS Gooden 15' Jump Shot	54 0.4%	72 99.6%
Q4 - 8:51	SAS	Parker 21' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	54 0.5%	72 99.5%
Q4 - 9:12	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	54 0.8%	70 99.2%
Q4 - 9:15	CLE	MISS Marshall 24' 3PT Jump Shot	54 0.8%	70 99.2%
Q4 - 9:22	CLE	Marshall REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	54 1.0%	70 99.0%
Q4 - 9:24	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	54 0.9%	70 99.1%
Q4 - 9:43	CLE	Gibson 1' Layup (9 PTS)	54 0.8%	70 99.2%
Q4 - 9:50	CLE	Varejao REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	52 0.6%	70 99.4%
Q4 - 9:52	CLE	MISS James 17' Jump Shot	52 0.5%	70 99.5%
Q4 - 10:16	SAS	Ginobili 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Vaughn 1 AST)	52 0.8%	70 99.2%
Q4 - 10:32	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	52 1.2%	67 98.8%
Q4 - 10:34	SAS	MISS Ginobili 19' Jump Shot	52 1.4%	67 98.6%
Q4 - 10:55	CLE	Marshall 2' Layup (5 PTS) (Gibson 3 AST)	52 1.2%	67 98.8%
Q4 - 10:58	SAS	Horry Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)	50 1.0%	67 99.0%
Q4 - 11:15	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	50 0.9%	67 99.1%
Q4 - 11:16	CLE	MISS Varejao Free Throw 2 of 2	50 1.0%	67 99.0%
Q4 - 11:16	CLE	Varejao Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	50 1.1%	67 98.9%
Q4 - 11:43	SAS	Horry 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	49 0.9%	67 99.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS		49 1.4%	64 98.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	49 1.4%	64 98.6%
Q3 - 0:01.0	SAS	MISS Horry 24' 3PT Jump Shot	49 1.9%	64 98.1%
Q3 - 0:05.0	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	49 1.7%	64 98.3%
Q3 - 0:06.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 19' Fadeaway Jumper	49 1.9%	64 98.1%
Q3 - 0:30.0	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	49 1.6%	64 98.4%
Q3 - 0:32.0	CLE	MISS Marshall 3PT Jump Shot	49 1.8%	64 98.2%
Q3 - 0:47.0	SAS	Duncan 4' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	49 2.0%	64 98.0%
Q3 - 1:04	SAS	SPURS Rebound	49 2.8%	62 97.2%
Q3 - 1:05	CLE	MISS Gibson 6' Running Jump Shot	49 2.9%	62 97.1%
Q3 - 1:24	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Horry 5 AST)	49 3.3%	62 96.7%
Q3 - 1:43	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	49 4.8%	59 95.2%
Q3 - 1:46	SAS	MISS Ginobili 2' Layup	49 5.5%	59 94.5%
Q3 - 1:53	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	49 4.8%	59 95.2%
Q3 - 1:55	CLE	MISS James 6' Jump Shot	49 5.1%	59 94.9%
Q3 - 2:07	CLE	Varejao REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	49 6.2%	59 93.8%
Q3 - 2:21	SAS	MISS Vaughn 13' Jump Shot	49 5.9%	59 94.1%
Q3 - 2:21	SAS	SPURS Rebound	49 5.1%	59 94.9%
Q3 - 2:21	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	49 5.1%	59 94.9%
Q3 - 2:21	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2	49 5.3%	58 94.7%
Q3 - 2:23	CLE	Ginobili STEAL (1 STL)	49 6.1%	58 93.9%
Q3 - 2:47	CLE	Cavaliers Rebound	49 7.4%	58 92.6%
Q3 - 2:47	SAS	MISS Duncan 2' Alley Oop Dunk	49 7.0%	58 93.0%
Q3 - 2:53	CLE	Horry STEAL (1 STL)	49 6.1%	58 93.9%
Q3 - 2:57	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	49 7.4%	58 92.6%
Q3 - 2:59	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	49 7.0%	58 93.0%
Q3 - 3:09	CLE	James Driving Layup (8 PTS) (Gibson 2 AST)	49 6.5%	58 93.5%
Q3 - 3:23	SAS	Parker 3' Driving Layup (18 PTS)	47 5.6%	58 94.4%
Q3 - 3:35	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	47 6.5%	56 93.5%
Q3 - 3:38	CLE	MISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot	47 6.9%	56 93.1%
Q3 - 3:57	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (18 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)	47 7.8%	56 92.2%
Q3 - 4:13	CLE	Gooden 14' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (James 2 AST)	47 9.2%	54 90.8%
Q3 - 4:39	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Horry 4 AST)	45 8.0%	54 92.0%
Q3 - 5:01	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	45 11.2%	51 88.8%
Q3 - 5:03	SAS	MISS Horry 3PT Jump Shot	45 12.4%	51 87.6%
Q3 - 5:10	SAS	SPURS Rebound	45 11.1%	51 88.9%
Q3 - 5:11	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Jump Bank Shot	45 12.4%	51 87.6%
Q3 - 5:27	CLE	Gooden Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	45 11.1%	51 88.9%
Q3 - 5:27	CLE	Gooden Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	44 10.7%	51 89.3%
Q3 - 5:45	SAS	Ginobili 2' Alley Oop Layup (7 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	43 9.7%	51 90.3%
Q3 - 6:00	CLE	Gooden 3' Layup (10 PTS)	43 11.1%	49 88.9%
Q3 - 6:02	CLE	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	41 9.9%	49 90.1%
Q3 - 6:04	CLE	MISS Ilgauskas 15' Jump Shot	41 8.9%	49 91.1%
Q3 - 6:27	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Oberto 2 AST)	41 9.9%	49 90.1%
Q3 - 6:40	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	41 13.1%	46 86.9%
Q3 - 6:42	CLE	MISS Ilgauskas 17' Jump Shot	41 13.7%	46 86.3%
Q3 - 6:55	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)	41 15.1%	46 84.9%
Q3 - 7:15	CLE	James 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	41 13.2%	46 86.8%
Q3 - 7:33	SAS	Parker 15' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	39 11.7%	46 88.3%
Q3 - 7:51	CLE	Gooden 2' Dunk (8 PTS)	39 13.1%	44 86.9%
Q3 - 8:13	SAS	Parker 2' Layup (14 PTS)	37 11.9%	44 88.1%
Q3 - 8:19	CLE	Duncan STEAL (2 STL)	37 13.3%	42 86.7%
Q3 - 8:37	CLE	Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	37 15.4%	42 84.6%
Q3 - 8:39	SAS	MISS Finley 15' Jump Shot	37 14.7%	42 85.3%
Q3 - 8:55	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	37 13.3%	42 86.7%
Q3 - 8:57	CLE	MISS Pavlovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot	37 13.9%	42 86.1%
Q3 - 9:14	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	37 15.2%	42 84.8%
Q3 - 9:15	SAS	MISS Oberto 11' Jump Shot	37 14.6%	42 85.4%
Q3 - 9:37	CLE	Gooden 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS)	37 13.3%	42 86.7%
Q3 - 9:50	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	35 11.8%	42 88.2%
Q3 - 10:15	CLE	James Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T7)	35 10.3%	42 89.7%
Q3 - 10:21	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	35 11.9%	42 88.1%
Q3 - 10:24	SAS	MISS Parker 7' Jump Shot	35 11.4%	42 88.6%
Q3 - 10:41	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	35 10.3%	42 89.7%
Q3 - 10:43	CLE	MISS Hughes 14' Jump Shot	35 10.8%	42 89.2%
Q3 - 10:48	CLE	Hughes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	35 11.9%	42 88.1%
Q3 - 10:50	SAS	MISS Duncan 6' Jump Shot	35 11.4%	42 88.6%
Q3 - 11:07	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	35 10.4%	42 89.6%
Q3 - 11:09	CLE	MISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot	35 10.8%	42 89.2%
Q3 - 11:20	CLE	Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	35 11.8%	42 88.2%
Q3 - 11:23	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	35 11.4%	42 88.6%
Q3 - 11:29	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	35 10.4%	42 89.6%
Q3 - 11:30	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1	35 11.6%	42 88.4%
Q3 - 11:31	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	35 13.3%	40 86.7%
Q3 - 11:33	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	35 14.5%	40 85.5%
Q3 - 11:43	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	35 13.3%	40 86.7%
Q3 - 11:46	CLE	MISS Gooden 12' Jump Shot	35 13.8%	40 86.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0	CLE		35 15.0%	40 85.0%
Q2 - 0:01.0	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	35 15.0%	40 85.0%
Q2 - 0:23.0	CLE	Gibson Layup (7 PTS)	35 19.3%	37 80.7%
Q2 - 0:47.0	SAS	Elson 3' Layup (5 PTS) (Horry 3 AST)	33 16.8%	37 83.2%
Q2 - 1:10	CLE	Marshall 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gibson 1 AST)	33 19.7%	35 80.3%
Q2 - 1:22	CLE	Gibson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	30 15.1%	35 84.9%
Q2 - 1:23	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	30 14.8%	35 85.2%
Q2 - 1:47	CLE	James Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	30 14.3%	35 85.7%
Q2 - 1:47	CLE	James Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	29 13.8%	35 86.2%
Q2 - 1:59	SAS	Duncan 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (14 PTS)	28 12.1%	35 87.9%
Q2 - 2:28	CLE	Pavlovic 1' Layup (8 PTS)	28 14.1%	33 85.9%
Q2 - 2:33	CLE	Pavlovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	26 12.6%	33 87.4%
Q2 - 2:35	SAS	MISS Parker 9' Running Jump Shot	26 12.2%	33 87.8%
Q2 - 2:45	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	26 11.4%	33 88.6%
Q2 - 2:46	CLE	MISS Hughes 24' 3PT Jump Shot	26 11.7%	33 88.3%
Q2 - 3:07	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (12 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	26 12.9%	33 87.1%
Q2 - 3:25	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	26 14.1%	31 85.9%
Q2 - 3:26	SAS	MISS Bowen 19' Jump Shot	26 15.3%	31 84.7%
Q2 - 3:42	SAS	SPURS Rebound	26 14.1%	31 85.9%
Q2 - 3:42	SAS	MISS Parker 2' Layup	26 15.3%	31 84.7%
Q2 - 3:47	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	26 14.1%	31 85.9%
Q2 - 3:49	CLE	MISS James 6' Jump Shot	26 14.6%	31 85.4%
Q2 - 3:58	CLE	Hughes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	26 15.8%	31 84.2%
Q2 - 4:00	SAS	MISS Duncan 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	26 15.3%	31 84.7%
Q2 - 4:23	CLE	Varejao Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	26 14.2%	31 85.8%
Q2 - 4:23	CLE	MISS Varejao Free Throw 1 of 2	25 13.7%	31 86.3%
Q2 - 4:51	SAS	Duncan 1' Dunk (12 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	25 14.2%	31 85.8%
Q2 - 5:03	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	25 15.6%	29 84.4%
Q2 - 5:04	CLE	MISS Pavlovic 2' Layup	25 16.1%	29 83.9%
Q2 - 5:23	SAS	Elson Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	25 17.3%	29 82.7%
Q2 - 5:23	SAS	Elson 1' Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	25 19.0%	28 81.0%
Q2 - 5:26	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	25 20.6%	26 79.4%
Q2 - 5:28	CLE	MISS Ilgauskas 6' Jump Shot	25 21.2%	26 78.8%
Q2 - 5:46	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	25 22.7%	26 77.3%
Q2 - 5:46	SAS	Parker 9' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS)	25 22.7%	26 77.3%
Q2 - 5:49	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 1	25 26.6%	24 73.4%
Q2 - 6:11	CLE	Hughes 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	25 28.5%	22 71.5%
Q2 - 6:22	CLE	Gooden REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	23 26.8%	22 73.2%
Q2 - 6:24	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	23 26.0%	22 74.0%
Q2 - 6:32	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	23 24.3%	22 75.7%
Q2 - 6:34	SAS	MISS Parker 16' Jump Shot	23 26.0%	22 74.0%
Q2 - 7:00	CLE	Pavlovic 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Ilgauskas 1 AST)	23 24.3%	22 75.7%
Q2 - 7:13	SAS	Barry Foul Turnover (P1.T7)	21 22.5%	22 77.5%
Q2 - 7:25	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 20.6%	22 79.4%
Q2 - 7:28	CLE	Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	21 22.5%	22 77.5%
Q2 - 7:28	CLE	Duncan BLOCK (4 BLK)	21 21.2%	22 78.8%
Q2 - 7:30	CLE	MISS Ilgauskas 1' Reverse Layup	21 21.2%	22 78.8%
Q2 - 7:42	CLE	Hughes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 22.5%	22 77.5%
Q2 - 7:44	SAS	MISS Duncan 14' Jump Bank Shot	21 21.9%	22 78.1%
Q2 - 8:02	SAS	Elson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 20.5%	22 79.5%
Q2 - 8:05	CLE	MISS Varejao 9' Turnaround Hook Shot	21 21.1%	22 78.9%
Q2 - 8:25	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	21 22.5%	22 77.5%
Q2 - 8:25	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	21 23.0%	21 77.0%
Q2 - 8:37	CLE	Varejao Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	21 24.1%	20 75.9%
Q2 - 8:37	CLE	Varejao Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	20 23.5%	20 76.5%
Q2 - 8:45	SAS	Ginobili Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T6)	19 22.5%	20 77.5%
Q2 - 8:50	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	19 20.5%	20 79.5%
Q2 - 8:51	CLE	MISS James 18' Jump Shot	19 21.1%	20 78.9%
Q2 - 9:08	CLE	Marshall REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 22.2%	20 77.8%
Q2 - 9:10	SAS	MISS Parker 15' Jump Shot	19 21.7%	20 78.3%
Q2 - 9:24	CLE	James Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	19 20.4%	20 79.6%
Q2 - 9:40	SAS	Horry Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	19 22.3%	20 77.7%
Q2 - 10:03	CLE	Gibson 1' Layup (5 PTS)	19 20.5%	20 79.5%
Q2 - 10:08	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	17 19.1%	20 80.9%
Q2 - 10:13	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	17 17.4%	20 82.6%
Q2 - 10:16	CLE	MISS James 11' Turnaround Jump Shot	17 17.9%	20 82.1%
Q2 - 10:39	CLE	Cavaliers Rebound	17 19.1%	20 80.9%
Q2 - 10:39	SAS	MISS Finley 17' Jump Shot	17 18.6%	20 81.4%
Q2 - 10:55	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	17 17.4%	20 82.6%
Q2 - 10:56	CLE	MISS Varejao 1' Layup	17 17.9%	20 82.1%
Q2 - 11:13	CLE	Cavaliers Rebound	17 18.7%	20 81.3%
Q2 - 11:14	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 18.3%	20 81.7%
Q2 - 11:39	CLE	MISS Varejao Free Throw 1 of 1	17 17.5%	20 82.5%
Q2 - 11:39	CLE	Varejao REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	17 17.3%	20 82.7%
Q2 - 11:39	CLE	Varejao Layup (2 PTS)	17 17.3%	20 82.7%
Q2 - 11:40	CLE	MISS Gibson 3PT Jump Shot	15 15.1%	20 84.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		15 16.0%	20 84.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	15 14.7%	20 85.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 20' Jump Shot	15 15.6%	20 84.4%
Q1 - 0:03.0	CLE	James Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	15 14.9%	20 85.1%
Q1 - 0:25.0	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	15 15.8%	20 84.2%
Q1 - 0:26.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 17' Jump Shot	15 15.5%	20 84.5%
Q1 - 0:38.0	CLE	Marshall Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	15 14.8%	20 85.2%
Q1 - 0:55.0	SAS	Vaughn 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Horry 2 AST)	15 15.8%	20 84.2%
Q1 - 1:12	CLE	James Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	15 17.4%	18 82.6%
Q1 - 1:12	CLE	James Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	14 17.1%	18 82.9%
Q1 - 1:17	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	13 15.8%	18 84.2%
Q1 - 1:19	SAS	MISS Vaughn 18' Jump Shot	13 15.5%	18 84.5%
Q1 - 1:42	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	13 14.9%	18 85.1%
Q1 - 1:43	CLE	MISS Marshall 3PT Jump Shot	13 15.2%	18 84.8%
Q1 - 2:05	SAS	Duncan Traveling Turnover (P2.T3)	13 16.0%	18 84.0%
Q1 - 2:26	CLE	Cavaliers Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	13 14.8%	18 85.2%
Q1 - 2:26	CLE	Cavaliers Rebound	13 16.0%	18 84.0%
Q1 - 2:26	CLE	Duncan BLOCK (3 BLK)	13 15.2%	18 84.8%
Q1 - 2:52	SAS	Ginobili 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Horry 1 AST)	13 16.0%	18 84.0%
Q1 - 2:58	CLE	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	13 17.4%	16 82.6%
Q1 - 3:12	CLE	Pavlovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	13 18.7%	16 81.3%
Q1 - 3:14	SAS	MISS Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot	13 18.2%	16 81.8%
Q1 - 3:41	CLE	Gibson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	13 17.2%	16 82.8%
Q1 - 4:03	SAS	Oberto Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	10 14.9%	16 85.1%
Q1 - 4:22	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	10 13.6%	16 86.4%
Q1 - 4:24	CLE	MISS Hughes 20' Jump Shot	10 14.0%	16 86.0%
Q1 - 4:39	CLE	Pavlovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 14.9%	16 85.1%
Q1 - 4:42	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	10 14.5%	16 85.5%
Q1 - 4:57	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 13.6%	16 86.4%
Q1 - 4:59	CLE	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	10 14.0%	16 86.0%
Q1 - 5:20	CLE	Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	10 14.8%	16 85.2%
Q1 - 5:22	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	10 13.7%	16 86.3%
Q1 - 5:22	SAS	MISS Oberto 1' Tip Shot	10 14.5%	16 85.5%
Q1 - 5:23	SAS	MISS Duncan 1' Layup	10 14.5%	16 85.5%
Q1 - 5:34	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 13.7%	16 86.3%
Q1 - 5:36	CLE	MISS James 17' Jump Shot	10 14.0%	16 86.0%
Q1 - 5:52	CLE	Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 14.8%	16 85.2%
Q1 - 5:53	CLE	MISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot	10 14.0%	16 86.0%
Q1 - 5:55	CLE	James REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	10 14.8%	16 85.2%
Q1 - 5:58	CLE	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	10 14.0%	16 86.0%
Q1 - 6:17	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	10 14.9%	16 85.1%
Q1 - 6:17	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	10 15.2%	15 84.8%
Q1 - 6:18	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 15.9%	14 84.1%
Q1 - 6:21	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 2	10 16.9%	14 83.1%
Q1 - 6:21	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	10 16.2%	14 83.8%
Q1 - 6:25	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 15.9%	14 84.1%
Q1 - 6:26	CLE	MISS Pavlovic 1' Layup	10 16.2%	14 83.8%
Q1 - 6:48	SAS	Duncan 15' Jump Bank Shot (6 PTS)	10 17.0%	14 83.0%
Q1 - 7:04	SAS	SPURS Rebound	10 18.0%	12 82.0%
Q1 - 7:06	CLE	MISS Ilgauskas 1' Layup	10 18.4%	12 81.6%
Q1 - 7:16	CLE	Ilgauskas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10 19.3%	12 80.7%
Q1 - 7:17	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	10 18.9%	12 81.1%
Q1 - 7:35	CLE	Gooden 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	10 18.1%	12 81.9%
Q1 - 7:56	SAS	Duncan Dunk (4 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	8 17.1%	12 82.9%
Q1 - 8:13	CLE	Pavlovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	8 17.9%	10 82.1%
Q1 - 8:13	CLE	Pavlovic 1' Tip Shot (4 PTS)	8 17.9%	10 82.1%
Q1 - 8:15	CLE	MISS Hughes 20' Jump Shot	6 16.1%	10 83.9%
Q1 - 8:32	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	6 17.0%	10 83.0%
Q1 - 8:36	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 17.9%	8 82.1%
Q1 - 8:39	CLE	MISS James 14' Fadeaway Jumper	6 18.3%	8 81.7%
Q1 - 8:53	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (4 PTS)	6 19.2%	8 80.8%
Q1 - 9:10	CLE	Gooden Driving Layup (2 PTS)	6 20.0%	6 80.0%
Q1 - 9:30	SAS	Duncan Dunk (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	4 19.1%	6 80.9%
Q1 - 9:53	CLE	Pavlovic 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 20.0%	4 80.0%
Q1 - 10:00	CLE	Gooden REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 19.1%	4 80.9%
Q1 - 10:03	SAS	MISS Bowen 8' Running Jump Shot	2 18.6%	4 81.4%
Q1 - 10:09	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 17.7%	4 82.3%
Q1 - 10:12	CLE	MISS Ilgauskas 12' Turnaround Jump Shot	2 18.1%	4 81.9%
Q1 - 10:42	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (2 PTS)	2 19.0%	4 81.0%
Q1 - 10:55	CLE	Ilgauskas 2' Layup (2 PTS) (James 1 AST)	2 20.0%	2 80.0%
Q1 - 11:16	SAS	Duncan 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T1)	0 18.8%	2 81.2%
Q1 - 11:28	CLE	Gooden Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	0 17.8%	2 82.2%
Q1 - 11:37	SAS	Finley 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	0 18.8%	2 81.2%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Ilgauskas: Tip to Parker	0 20.1%	0 79.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

CLE

0.95 47.5%

SAS

1.01 50.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CLE

62%

SAS

75%

Midrange

CLE

31%

SAS

23%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CLE

7.5

33%

50%

SAS

9.0

38%

56%

Free Throws

CLE

73%

SAS

69%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Cavaliers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Gibson	16	89%	8.0 / 9
L. James	14	39%	7.0 / 18
D. Gooden	14	70%	7.0 / 10
S. Pavlovic	13	50%	6.5 / 13
A. Varejao	10	50%	5.0 / 10
D. Marshall	5	50%	2.5 / 5
Z. Ilgauskas	2	13%	1.0 / 8
L. Hughes	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Parker	27	54%	13.5 / 25
T. Duncan	24	63%	12.0 / 19
M. Ginobili	16	62%	8.0 / 13
B. Bowen	6	50%	3.0 / 6
F. Elson	5	83%	2.5 / 3
R. Horry	3	50%	1.5 / 3
M. Finley	2	14%	1.0 / 7
J. Vaughn	2	33%	1.0 / 3
F. Oberto	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

CLE

+11

-11

SAS

+18

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CLE

0.95 47.5%

SAS

1.01 50.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Playoff Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	102.1 107.6	CLE 96.2 +10.0 SAS 106.3
Pace	86.1 89.0	CLE 88.0 +15.4 SAS 72.6
Avg. Poss. Time	16.7 17.1	CLE 16.4 +3.5 SAS 19.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	45.6% 50.8%	CLE 46.4% SAS 49.3% +2.9%
TO %	14.1% 14.9%	CLE 13.5% +1.1% SAS 14.6%
ORB %	28.6% 26.4%	CLE 23.1% SAS 36.1% +13.0%
FTrt	34.1 31.7	CLE 21.4 +0.1 SAS 21.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	54.5% 56.3%	CLE 30.0% SAS 52.9% +22.9%
STL %	8.3% 8.0%	CLE 10.1% +2.6% SAS 7.5%
BLK %	6.1% 8.6%	CLE 3.4% SAS 9.1% +5.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Playoff Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	48.8% 53.1%	CLE 47.5% SAS 50.6% +3.1%
Rim FG%	55.0% 60.4%	CLE 61.5% SAS 75.0% +13.5%
Mid FG%	37.0% 38.9%	CLE 31.0% +8.4% SAS 22.6%
3P %	32.6% 38.4%	CLE 33.3% SAS 37.5% +4.2%
FT %	73.7% 72.4%	CLE 73.3% +4.5% SAS 68.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	33.6% 33.2%	CLE 37.1% SAS 37.3% +0.2%
Mid Att. %	44.7% 41.2%	CLE 41.4% SAS 41.3% +0.1%
3P Att. %	21.7% 25.6%	CLE 21.4% +0.1% SAS 21.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	CLE	SAS
Possessions	79	80
Possession Minutes	21.6	26.4
Points	76	85
Rebounds	32	43
Assists	9	18
Steals	8	6
Blocks	2	5
Turnovers (Team)	11 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	13 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	23 (4)	30 (2)
Field Goals	30-70	34-75
At-the-Rim FG	16-26	21-28
Midrange FG	9-29	7-31
2-Point FG	25-55	28-59
3-Point FG	5-15	6-16
Free Throws	11-15	11-16
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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8 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LeBron James F · 6'9" 250 · 22	44.0	14	39%	7	4	1	1	6	1	1	6	4-4	100%	2-10	20%	2-6	33%
Sasha Pavlovic G · 6'7" 235 · 24	36.8	13	50%	5	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	1-2	50%	6-11	55%	0-1	0%
Drew Gooden F · 6'10" 250 · 26	25.8	14	70%	4	0	1	0	2	4	1	3	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Zydrunas Ilgauskas C · 7'3" 260 · 32	23.4	2	13%	6	1	1	1	0	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-8	13%	0-0	-
Larry Hughes G · 6'5" 185 · 28	23.4	2	20%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Anderson Varejao F · 6'11" 260 · 25	31.0	10	50%	4	0	0	0	1	3	3	1	4-7	57%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Daniel Gibson G · 6'2" 200 · 21	27.8	16	89%	1	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	5-6	83%	2-3	67%
Donyell Marshall F · 6'9" 245 · 34	15.5	5	50%	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Damon Jones G · 6'3" 195 · 31	11.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Eric Snow G · 6'3" 205 · 34	0.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ira Newble G-F · 6'7" 220 · 32
Scot Pollard C-F · 6'11" 278 · 32
David Wesley #4 · G · 6'1" 203 · 37	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Shannon Brown #6 · G · 6'3" 215 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dwayne Jones #27 · F-C · 6'11" 248 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	76	48%	32	9	8	2	11	0	9	23	11-15	73%	25-55	45%	5-15	33%

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8 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LeBron James F · 6'9" 250 · 22	44.0	14	39%	7	4	1	1	6	1	1	6	4-4	100%	2-10	20%	2-6	33%
Sasha Pavlovic G · 6'7" 235 · 24	36.8	13	50%	5	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	1-2	50%	6-11	55%	0-1	0%
Drew Gooden F · 6'10" 250 · 26	25.8	14	70%	4	0	1	0	2	4	1	3	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Zydrunas Ilgauskas C · 7'3" 260 · 32	23.4	2	13%	6	1	1	1	0	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-8	13%	0-0	-
Larry Hughes G · 6'5" 185 · 28	23.4	2	20%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Anderson Varejao F · 6'11" 260 · 25	31.0	10	50%	4	0	0	0	1	3	3	1	4-7	57%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Daniel Gibson G · 6'2" 200 · 21	27.8	16	89%	1	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	5-6	83%	2-3	67%
Donyell Marshall F · 6'9" 245 · 34	15.5	5	50%	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Damon Jones G · 6'3" 195 · 31	11.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Eric Snow G · 6'3" 205 · 34	0.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ira Newble G-F · 6'7" 220 · 32
Scot Pollard C-F · 6'11" 278 · 32
David Wesley #4 · G · 6'1" 203 · 37	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Shannon Brown #6 · G · 6'3" 215 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dwayne Jones #27 · F-C · 6'11" 248 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	76	48%	32	9	8	2	11	0	9	23	11-15	73%	25-55	45%	5-15	33%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 36	40.5	6	50%	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-4	50%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 31	39.2	24	63%	13	1	2	5	2	2	5	8	4-5	80%	10-17	59%	0-0	-
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 25	38.1	27	54%	4	7	2	0	4	1	1	3	3-6	50%	12-23	52%	0-0	-
Michael Finley G · 6'7" 225 · 34	19.9	2	14%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 32	17.1	0	0%	4	2	0	0	1	3	2	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 30	28.4	16	62%	8	0	1	0	2	3	0	8	3-4	75%	2-7	29%	3-5	60%
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 37	23.0	3	50%	1	6	1	0	3	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Francisco Elson C-F · 7'0" 240 · 31	15.8	5	83%	6	0	0	0	0	1	3	3	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 32	9.9	2	33%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 35	7.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 25	0.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 27
Melvin Ely #2 · C-F · 6'10" 260 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jackie Butler #45 · C · 6'10" 260 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
James White #33 · G-F · 6'7" 215 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	85	51%	43	18	6	5	14	0	13	30	11-16	69%	28-59	47%	6-16	38%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Playoff Avg

Playoff Avg

BOXSCORE