Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, May 2, 2006

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	5	Kings	25%	86	98
	2	Spurs	75%	95	109

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
SAC	112.6	87	86.9
SAS	123.9	88	88.1

Scoring Opportunities

SAC

+12

-9

SAS

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.08 53.8%

SAS

1.31 65.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	SAC	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		98 0%	109 100%
Q4 - 0:10.0	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:9)	98 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:12.0	SAC	Ginobili BLOCK (2 BLK)	98 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0	SAC	Potapenko REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	98 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:19.0	SAC	MISS Hart 21' Jump Shot	98 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:27.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)	98 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:27.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)	98 0.1%	108 99.9%
Q4 - 0:29.0	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	98 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:29.0	SAC	Wells 1' Layup (38 PTS)	98 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:29.0	SAC	MISS World Peace 2' Layup	96 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (25 PTS)	96 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)	96 0.1%	106 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)	96 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 0:40.0	SAC	MISS World Peace 29' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	96 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 0:46.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)	96 0.2%	105 99.8%
Q4 - 0:46.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)	96 0.2%	104 99.8%
Q4 - 0:49.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	96 0.4%	103 99.6%
Q4 - 0:51.0	SAC	MISS Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot	96 0.5%	103 99.5%
Q4 - 0:54.0	SAS	Finley Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	96 0.9%	103 99.1%
Q4 - 0:54.0	SAS	Finley Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	96 1.0%	102 99.0%
Q4 - 0:55.0	SAC	Finley STEAL (1 STL)	96 1.6%	101 98.4%
Q4 - 1:00	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (24 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	96 3.4%	101 96.6%
Q4 - 1:20	SAC	Wells Free Throw 2 of 2 (36 PTS)	96 6.5%	99 93.5%
Q4 - 1:20	SAC	MISS Wells Free Throw 1 of 2	95 5.7%	99 94.3%
Q4 - 1:30	SAS	Ginobili 1' Layup (21 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	95 7.5%	99 92.5%
Q4 - 1:48	SAC	Wells Layup (35 PTS)	95 12.6%	97 87.4%
Q4 - 2:06	SAS	Bowen 2' Layup (16 PTS) (Finley 3 AST)	93 9.1%	97 90.9%
Q4 - 2:24	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	93 11.6%	95 88.4%
Q4 - 2:26	SAC	MISS World Peace 15' Jump Shot	93 13.9%	95 86.1%
Q4 - 2:47	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (22 PTS)	93 20.8%	95 79.2%
Q4 - 3:00	SAC	World Peace Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	93 26.0%	93 74.0%
Q4 - 3:00	SAC	World Peace Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)	92 24.1%	93 75.9%
Q4 - 3:18	SAS	Ginobili 2' Layup (19 PTS) (Duncan 5 AST)	91 21.3%	93 78.7%
Q4 - 3:36	SAC	Wells 24' 3PT Jump Shot (33 PTS) (World Peace 4 AST)	91 27.4%	91 72.6%
Q4 - 3:48	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	88 15.5%	91 84.5%
Q4 - 3:50	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	88 14.0%	91 86.0%
Q4 - 4:05	SAC	World Peace 1' Layup (22 PTS)	88 10.9%	91 89.1%
Q4 - 4:20	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	86 7.9%	91 92.1%
Q4 - 4:53	SAC	World Peace 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS)	86 10.8%	89 89.2%
Q4 - 5:19	SAS	Parker 16' Jump Shot (19 PTS)	83 6.5%	89 93.5%
Q4 - 5:29	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	83 8.7%	87 91.3%
Q4 - 5:31	SAC	MISS Bibby 1' Layup	83 9.6%	87 90.4%
Q4 - 5:39	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	83 11.9%	87 88.1%
Q4 - 5:40	SAC	MISS Abdur-Rahim 3' Layup	83 9.6%	87 90.4%
Q4 - 5:50	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T14)	83 11.9%	87 88.1%
Q4 - 6:15	SAC	Martin 1' Dunk (11 PTS) (Bibby 4 AST)	83 9.3%	87 90.7%
Q4 - 6:18	SAS	Bowen Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T13)	81 7.3%	87 92.7%
Q4 - 6:38	SAC	World Peace 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (17 PTS)	81 5.3%	87 94.7%
Q4 - 6:55	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (20 PTS) (Barry 3 AST)	79 4.1%	87 95.9%
Q4 - 7:14	SAC	World Peace 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Abdur-Rahim 1 AST)	79 6.1%	85 93.9%
Q4 - 7:39	SAS	Parker 17' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	76 3.7%	85 96.3%
Q4 - 8:05	SAC	Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Martin 2 AST)	76 5.5%	83 94.5%
Q4 - 8:08	SAC	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	73 3.4%	83 96.6%
Q4 - 8:09	SAC	MISS Wells 15' Jump Shot	73 2.9%	83 97.1%
Q4 - 8:35	SAC	Kings Rebound	73 3.4%	83 96.6%
Q4 - 8:35	SAS	MISS Finley 26' 3PT Jump Shot	73 3.1%	83 96.9%
Q4 - 8:58	SAC	Martin Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	73 2.6%	83 97.4%
Q4 - 8:58	SAC	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	72 2.5%	83 97.5%
Q4 - 9:10	SAC	Kings Rebound	71 2.4%	83 97.6%
Q4 - 9:12	SAS	MISS Finley 6' Jump Shot	71 2.2%	83 97.8%
Q4 - 9:17	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	71 1.9%	83 98.1%
Q4 - 9:19	SAC	MISS Wells 6' Jump Shot	71 2.0%	83 98.0%
Q4 - 9:26	SAS	Van Exel Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T12)	71 2.4%	83 97.6%
Q4 - 9:42	SAC	World Peace Layup (12 PTS)	71 1.9%	83 98.1%
Q4 - 9:45	SAS	Ginobili Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T11)	69 1.5%	83 98.5%
Q4 - 9:56	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	69 1.2%	83 98.8%
Q4 - 9:58	SAS	MISS Barry 25' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	69 1.4%	83 98.6%
Q4 - 10:17	SAC	Abdur-Rahim Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	69 1.4%	83 98.6%
Q4 - 10:32	SAC	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	69 1.8%	83 98.2%
Q4 - 10:33	SAS	MISS Ginobili 16' Jump Shot	69 1.6%	83 98.4%
Q4 - 10:37	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	69 1.4%	83 98.6%
Q4 - 10:41	SAS	MISS Finley 1' Layup	69 1.6%	83 98.4%
Q4 - 10:54	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	69 1.4%	83 98.6%
Q4 - 10:56	SAC	MISS Wells 2' Layup	69 1.5%	83 98.5%
Q4 - 11:03	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)	69 2.0%	83 98.0%
Q4 - 11:10	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	69 1.6%	83 98.4%
Q4 - 11:11	SAC	MISS Bibby 17' Jump Shot	69 1.7%	83 98.3%
Q4 - 11:23	SAS	Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS)	69 2.0%	83 98.0%
Q4 - 11:40	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	69 3.1%	80 96.9%
Q4 - 11:42	SAC	MISS Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 2 of 2	69 3.1%	80 96.9%
Q4 - 11:42	SAC	Abdur-Rahim Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	69 3.6%	80 96.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC		68 3.1%	80 96.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC	Kings Rebound	68 3.1%	80 96.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC	MISS Miller 64' 3PT Jump Shot	68 2.6%	80 97.4%
Q3 - 0:01.0	SAS	Finley 19' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)	68 3.4%	80 96.6%
Q3 - 0:09.0	SAC	World Peace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS)	68 4.2%	78 95.8%
Q3 - 0:28.0	SAS	Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Van Exel 4 AST)	65 2.8%	78 97.2%
Q3 - 0:48.0	SAC	Wells Free Throw 2 of 2 (30 PTS)	65 4.1%	75 95.9%
Q3 - 0:48.0	SAC	Wells Free Throw 1 of 2 (29 PTS)	64 3.9%	75 96.1%
Q3 - 1:03	SAS	Ginobili 2' Dunk (14 PTS)	63 3.8%	75 96.2%
Q3 - 1:25	SAC	Miller Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)	63 4.5%	73 95.5%
Q3 - 1:46	SAS	Barry 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Finley 2 AST)	60 3.1%	73 96.9%
Q3 - 1:56	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	60 4.5%	70 95.5%
Q3 - 1:58	SAC	MISS Wells 18' Jump Shot	60 4.7%	70 95.3%
Q3 - 2:24	SAS	Duncan Layup (18 PTS) (Van Exel 3 AST)	60 5.7%	70 94.3%
Q3 - 2:30	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	60 6.7%	68 93.3%
Q3 - 2:31	SAC	MISS World Peace 1' Layup	60 7.1%	68 92.9%
Q3 - 2:53	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	60 8.1%	68 91.9%
Q3 - 2:54	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 2	60 7.9%	68 92.1%
Q3 - 2:54	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	60 7.1%	68 92.9%
Q3 - 2:59	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	60 8.0%	67 92.0%
Q3 - 3:01	SAC	MISS World Peace 24' 3PT Jump Shot	60 8.9%	67 91.1%
Q3 - 3:24	SAS	Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Barry 2 AST)	60 10.0%	67 90.0%
Q3 - 3:40	SAC	Miller 1' Layup (7 PTS) (Wells 2 AST)	60 13.6%	64 86.4%
Q3 - 3:56	SAS	Barry Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	58 11.7%	64 88.3%
Q3 - 3:56	SAS	Barry Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	58 12.1%	63 87.9%
Q3 - 4:04	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	58 13.5%	62 86.5%
Q3 - 4:05	SAC	MISS Miller 24' 3PT Jump Shot	58 14.2%	62 85.8%
Q3 - 4:21	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	58 16.0%	62 84.0%
Q3 - 4:23	SAS	MISS Parker 25' 3PT Jump Shot	58 15.2%	62 84.8%
Q3 - 4:26	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	58 13.5%	62 86.5%
Q3 - 4:28	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 5' Jump Shot	58 15.2%	62 84.8%
Q3 - 4:45	SAC	World Peace Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	58 13.5%	62 86.5%
Q3 - 4:45	SAC	World Peace Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	57 13.0%	62 87.0%
Q3 - 5:08	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	56 12.1%	62 87.9%
Q3 - 5:09	SAS	MISS Ginobili 1' Layup	56 11.5%	62 88.5%
Q3 - 5:18	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	56 10.3%	62 89.7%
Q3 - 5:19	SAC	MISS World Peace 24' 3PT Jump Shot	56 10.8%	62 89.2%
Q3 - 5:38	SAS	Ginobili 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Horry 4 AST)	56 12.1%	62 87.9%
Q3 - 5:52	SAC	Wells Free Throw 2 of 2 (28 PTS)	56 13.8%	60 86.2%
Q3 - 5:52	SAC	Wells Free Throw 1 of 2 (27 PTS)	55 13.3%	60 86.7%
Q3 - 6:13	SAS	Ginobili 1' Driving Layup (10 PTS) (Horry 3 AST)	54 12.2%	60 87.8%
Q3 - 6:31	SAC	Thomas Foul Turnover (P1.T7)	54 13.9%	58 86.1%
Q3 - 6:35	SAC	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	54 16.1%	58 83.9%
Q3 - 6:37	SAC	MISS World Peace 10' Jump Shot	54 14.6%	58 85.4%
Q3 - 7:00	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	54 16.1%	58 83.9%
Q3 - 7:00	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	54 16.7%	57 83.3%
Q3 - 7:05	SAC	Horry STEAL (1 STL)	54 18.1%	56 81.9%
Q3 - 7:20	SAS	Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	54 20.9%	56 79.1%
Q3 - 7:27	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	54 26.0%	53 74.0%
Q3 - 7:29	SAC	MISS Bibby 3PT Jump Shot	54 27.1%	53 72.9%
Q3 - 7:54	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	54 29.6%	53 70.4%
Q3 - 7:54	SAS	Duncan 1' Tip Shot (16 PTS)	54 29.6%	53 70.4%
Q3 - 7:56	SAS	MISS Duncan 2' Layup	54 35.2%	51 64.8%
Q3 - 8:12	SAC	Wells 19' Jump Shot (26 PTS)	54 32.0%	51 68.0%
Q3 - 8:29	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	52 29.3%	51 70.7%
Q3 - 8:31	SAS	MISS Horry 18' Jump Shot	52 28.2%	51 71.8%
Q3 - 8:52	SAC	Wells 21' Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)	52 25.8%	51 74.2%
Q3 - 9:13	SAS	Ginobili 2' Layup (8 PTS) (Duncan 4 AST)	50 22.7%	51 77.3%
Q3 - 9:27	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	50 25.3%	49 74.7%
Q3 - 9:29	SAC	MISS Thomas 17' Jump Shot	50 26.2%	49 73.8%
Q3 - 9:47	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)	50 28.3%	49 71.7%
Q3 - 9:47	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	50 34.5%	46 65.5%
Q3 - 9:50	SAS	MISS Ginobili 7' Finger Roll	50 36.9%	46 63.1%
Q3 - 10:10	SAC	Thomas 7' Turnaround Hook Shot (2 PTS)	50 33.3%	46 66.7%
Q3 - 10:31	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)	48 30.6%	46 69.4%
Q3 - 10:58	SAC	Wells 15' Jump Bank Shot (22 PTS)	48 36.6%	43 63.4%
Q3 - 11:08	SAS	Duncan Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T9)	46 32.6%	43 67.4%
Q3 - 11:23	SAC	Miller Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	46 29.6%	43 70.4%
Q3 - 11:36	SAC	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	46 32.7%	43 67.3%
Q3 - 11:38	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	46 31.7%	43 68.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		46 29.6%	43 70.4%
Q2 - 0:01.0	SAC	World Peace 1' Driving Layup (5 PTS)	46 29.7%	43 70.3%
Q2 - 0:09.0	SAS	Parker Foul Turnover (P3.T8)	44 26.2%	43 73.8%
Q2 - 0:29.0	SAC	Bibby Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	44 24.5%	43 75.5%
Q2 - 0:34.0	SAS	Ginobili Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)	44 26.3%	43 73.7%
Q2 - 0:53.0	SAC	Wells 1' Dunk (20 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	44 24.4%	43 75.6%
Q2 - 1:08	SAC	World Peace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	42 21.3%	43 78.7%
Q2 - 1:11	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	42 20.9%	43 79.1%
Q2 - 1:29	SAC	Martin 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (World Peace 3 AST)	42 20.2%	43 79.8%
Q2 - 1:48	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)	39 15.5%	43 84.5%
Q2 - 2:01	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	39 17.8%	41 82.2%
Q2 - 2:03	SAC	MISS Miller Free Throw 2 of 2	39 18.0%	41 82.0%
Q2 - 2:03	SAC	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	39 19.4%	41 80.6%
Q2 - 2:03	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	38 17.7%	41 82.3%
Q2 - 2:05	SAC	Bowen BLOCK (1 BLK)	38 16.5%	41 83.5%
Q2 - 2:23	SAS	Bowen 1' Layup (8 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	38 17.7%	41 82.3%
Q2 - 2:42	SAC	Martin Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	38 19.8%	39 80.2%
Q2 - 2:42	SAC	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	37 19.5%	39 80.5%
Q2 - 2:53	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	36 17.7%	39 82.3%
Q2 - 2:53	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	36 18.1%	38 81.9%
Q2 - 3:08	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	36 17.5%	38 82.5%
Q2 - 3:10	SAC	MISS Bibby 19' Jump Shot	36 18.1%	38 81.9%
Q2 - 3:16	SAC	World Peace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	36 19.6%	38 80.4%
Q2 - 3:18	SAS	MISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot	36 18.9%	38 81.1%
Q2 - 3:38	SAC	Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	36 17.6%	38 82.4%
Q2 - 3:54	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	33 14.5%	38 85.5%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	33 14.3%	38 85.7%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	33 13.5%	38 86.5%
Q2 - 4:09	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	33 14.4%	37 85.6%
Q2 - 4:11	SAC	MISS Martin 24' 3PT Jump Shot	33 14.8%	37 85.2%
Q2 - 4:30	SAC	Kings Rebound	33 15.9%	37 84.1%
Q2 - 4:30	SAS	MISS Van Exel 9' Jump Shot	33 15.4%	37 84.6%
Q2 - 4:37	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	33 14.4%	37 85.6%
Q2 - 4:39	SAC	MISS Martin 9' Jump Shot	33 14.8%	37 85.2%
Q2 - 4:53	SAC	World Peace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	33 15.9%	37 84.1%
Q2 - 4:55	SAS	MISS Bowen 25' 3PT Jump Shot	33 15.4%	37 84.6%
Q2 - 5:07	SAS	Van Exel REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	33 14.3%	37 85.7%
Q2 - 5:09	SAC	MISS Wells 13' Jump Shot	33 14.8%	37 85.2%
Q2 - 5:25	SAS	Van Exel Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	33 15.9%	37 84.1%
Q2 - 5:25	SAS	Van Exel Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	33 16.2%	36 83.8%
Q2 - 5:46	SAC	Wells 25' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Martin 1 AST)	33 17.3%	35 82.7%
Q2 - 5:49	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	30 14.4%	35 85.6%
Q2 - 5:51	SAC	MISS Bibby 6' Jump Shot	30 13.4%	35 86.6%
Q2 - 6:02	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	30 14.6%	35 85.4%
Q2 - 6:04	SAS	MISS Finley 1' Layup	30 14.1%	35 85.9%
Q2 - 6:23	SAC	Wells Layup (15 PTS) (World Peace 2 AST)	30 13.0%	35 87.0%
Q2 - 6:27	SAS	Van Exel Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	28 12.0%	35 88.0%
Q2 - 6:31	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	28 10.7%	35 89.3%
Q2 - 6:33	SAC	Horry BLOCK (1 BLK)	28 11.1%	35 88.9%
Q2 - 6:42	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	28 12.0%	35 88.0%
Q2 - 6:42	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	28 12.4%	34 87.6%
Q2 - 6:57	SAC	Wells 17' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	28 13.0%	33 87.0%
Q2 - 7:17	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	26 12.2%	33 87.8%
Q2 - 7:17	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	26 12.4%	32 87.6%
Q2 - 7:36	SAC	Wells 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Bibby 3 AST)	26 13.3%	31 86.7%
Q2 - 7:44	SAC	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	23 11.1%	31 88.9%
Q2 - 7:47	SAS	MISS Horry 3PT Jump Shot	23 10.8%	31 89.2%
Q2 - 8:12	SAC	Martin 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wells 1 AST)	23 10.1%	31 89.9%
Q2 - 8:38	SAS	Horry 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Van Exel 2 AST)	21 9.3%	31 90.7%
Q2 - 8:55	SAC	Abdur-Rahim 4' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)	21 10.1%	29 89.9%
Q2 - 9:15	SAS	Barry 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	19 9.4%	29 90.6%
Q2 - 9:16	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	19 10.2%	27 89.8%
Q2 - 9:20	SAS	MISS Van Exel 12' Turnaround Jump Shot	19 10.9%	27 89.1%
Q2 - 9:42	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	19 10.2%	27 89.8%
Q2 - 9:44	SAC	MISS Wells 16' Jump Shot	19 10.5%	27 89.5%
Q2 - 10:19	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	19 11.4%	27 88.6%
Q2 - 10:19	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	19 11.8%	26 88.2%
Q2 - 10:31	SAS	SPURS Rebound	19 12.4%	25 87.6%
Q2 - 10:31	SAS	MISS Duncan 19' Jump Shot	19 13.2%	25 86.8%
Q2 - 10:41	SAC	Barry STEAL (1 STL)	19 12.4%	25 87.6%
Q2 - 10:55	SAS	Duncan 8' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Van Exel 1 AST)	19 13.6%	25 86.4%
Q2 - 10:59	SAS	SPURS Rebound	19 14.7%	23 85.3%
Q2 - 10:59	SAS	MISS Barry 1' Dunk	19 15.7%	23 84.3%
Q2 - 11:25	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 14.6%	23 85.4%
Q2 - 11:27	SAC	MISS Martin 25' 3PT Jump Shot	19 15.0%	23 85.0%
Q2 - 11:43	SAS	Ginobili 2' Reverse Layup (4 PTS)	19 15.8%	23 84.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAC		19 17.2%	21 82.8%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Parker 32' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)	19 18.6%	21 81.4%
Q1 - 0:03.0	SAC	Abdur-Rahim 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bibby 2 AST)	19 21.7%	18 78.3%
Q1 - 0:24.0	SAC	Abdur-Rahim REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 19.8%	18 80.2%
Q1 - 0:26.0	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 19.4%	18 80.6%
Q1 - 0:33.0	SAC	Wells 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (World Peace 1 AST)	17 18.7%	18 81.3%
Q1 - 0:42.0	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	15 17.0%	18 83.0%
Q1 - 0:44.0	SAS	MISS Parker 13' Jump Shot	15 16.6%	18 83.4%
Q1 - 1:14	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 16.0%	18 84.0%
Q1 - 1:16	SAC	Ginobili BLOCK (1 BLK)	15 16.3%	18 83.7%
Q1 - 1:31	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 17.0%	18 83.0%
Q1 - 1:32	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	15 16.7%	18 83.3%
Q1 - 1:50	SAS	SPURS Rebound	15 16.0%	18 84.0%
Q1 - 1:52	SAC	MISS Wells Free Throw 2 of 2	15 16.1%	18 83.9%
Q1 - 1:52	SAC	Wells Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	15 16.9%	18 83.1%
Q1 - 1:52	SAC	Wells REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 15.7%	18 84.3%
Q1 - 1:52	SAC	World Peace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 15.7%	18 84.3%
Q1 - 1:52	SAC	MISS World Peace 1' Tip Shot	14 15.0%	18 85.0%
Q1 - 1:54	SAC	MISS World Peace 1' Reverse Layup	14 15.0%	18 85.0%
Q1 - 2:04	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	14 15.8%	18 84.2%
Q1 - 2:12	SAC	Wells Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	14 14.7%	18 85.3%
Q1 - 2:12	SAC	Wells Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	13 14.4%	18 85.6%
Q1 - 2:31	SAS	Parker 10' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	12 13.5%	18 86.5%
Q1 - 2:48	SAC	Miller 10' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	12 14.7%	16 85.3%
Q1 - 3:10	SAS	Bowen 22' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)	10 13.6%	16 86.4%
Q1 - 3:29	SAC	Wells 1' Dunk (3 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	10 14.6%	14 85.4%
Q1 - 3:41	SAC	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	8 13.6%	14 86.4%
Q1 - 3:42	SAC	MISS Miller 15' Jump Shot	8 12.8%	14 87.2%
Q1 - 4:04	SAS	Duncan 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)	8 13.5%	14 86.5%
Q1 - 4:13	SAC	Wells Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2)	8 14.4%	12 85.6%
Q1 - 4:45	SAS	Duncan Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	8 15.8%	12 84.2%
Q1 - 4:45	SAS	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 14.4%	12 85.6%
Q1 - 4:46	SAC	MISS Martin 18' Jump Shot	8 14.8%	12 85.2%
Q1 - 4:59	SAS	Bowen Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	8 15.8%	12 84.2%
Q1 - 5:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	8 14.4%	12 85.6%
Q1 - 5:16	SAC	MISS Bibby 20' Jump Shot	8 14.7%	12 85.3%
Q1 - 5:39	SAS	Duncan Layup (2 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	8 15.6%	12 84.4%
Q1 - 6:02	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	8 16.5%	10 83.5%
Q1 - 6:04	SAC	MISS World Peace 26' 3PT Jump Shot	8 16.9%	10 83.1%
Q1 - 6:16	SAC	Martin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 17.8%	10 82.3%
Q1 - 6:18	SAS	MISS Parker 16' Jump Shot	8 17.4%	10 82.6%
Q1 - 6:32	SAC	World Peace 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	8 16.6%	10 83.4%
Q1 - 6:41	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	5 14.5%	10 85.5%
Q1 - 6:43	SAS	MISS Ginobili 3' Layup	5 14.2%	10 85.8%
Q1 - 6:45	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	5 13.5%	10 86.5%
Q1 - 6:46	SAS	MISS Bowen 25' 3PT Jump Shot	5 14.2%	10 85.8%
Q1 - 6:52	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	5 13.5%	10 86.5%
Q1 - 6:56	SAC	MISS Wells 1' Dunk	5 13.8%	10 86.2%
Q1 - 7:09	SAS	Ginobili Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	5 14.6%	10 85.4%
Q1 - 7:25	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	5 15.4%	8 84.6%
Q1 - 7:26	SAC	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	5 15.8%	8 84.2%
Q1 - 7:44	SAS	Bowen 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	5 16.6%	8 83.4%
Q1 - 8:10	SAC	Wells Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	5 17.3%	6 82.7%
Q1 - 8:32	SAS	Bowen 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Horry 1 AST)	5 18.6%	6 81.4%
Q1 - 8:47	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	5 19.6%	4 80.4%
Q1 - 8:49	SAC	MISS Wells Free Throw 2 of 2	5 19.8%	4 80.2%
Q1 - 8:49	SAC	Wells Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	5 20.5%	4 79.5%
Q1 - 9:00	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	4 19.8%	4 80.2%
Q1 - 9:18	SAC	Miller 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bibby 1 AST)	4 20.6%	2 79.4%
Q1 - 9:34	SAC	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 19.7%	2 80.3%
Q1 - 9:36	SAS	MISS Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot	2 19.2%	2 80.8%
Q1 - 9:55	SAC	Bibby 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 18.2%	2 81.8%
Q1 - 9:59	SAS	Parker Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T2)	0 17.4%	2 82.6%
Q1 - 10:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 16.1%	2 83.9%
Q1 - 10:15	SAC	MISS Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot	0 16.5%	2 83.5%
Q1 - 10:19	SAC	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 17.3%	2 82.7%
Q1 - 10:21	SAC	MISS World Peace 16' Jump Shot	0 16.5%	2 83.5%
Q1 - 10:42	SAS	Parker Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	0 17.3%	2 82.7%
Q1 - 11:00	SAS	SPURS Rebound	0 16.1%	2 83.9%
Q1 - 11:03	SAC	MISS Thomas 6' Jump Shot	0 16.5%	2 83.5%
Q1 - 11:22	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	0 17.1%	2 82.9%
Q1 - 11:39	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 18.3%	0 81.7%
Q1 - 11:41	SAC	MISS World Peace 10' Jump Bank Shot	0 18.6%	0 81.4%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Miller: Tip to Thomas	0 19.3%	0 80.7%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.08 53.8%

SAS

1.31 65.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAC

52%

SAS

73%

Midrange

SAC

38%

SAS

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAC

15.0

45%

68%

SAS

10.5

44%

66%

Free Throws

SAC

80%

SAS

89%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Wells	38	73%	19.0 / 26
M. World Peace	24	52%	12.0 / 23
K. Martin	11	61%	5.5 / 9
B. Miller	10	50%	5.0 / 10
M. Bibby	8	33%	4.0 / 12
S. Abdur-Rahim	5	63%	2.5 / 4
K. Thomas	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Hart	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Ginobili	27	75%	13.5 / 18
T. Duncan	24	80%	12.0 / 15
T. Parker	21	62%	10.5 / 17
B. Bowen	16	89%	8.0 / 9
M. Finley	10	50%	5.0 / 10
B. Barry	7	70%	3.5 / 5
R. Horry	2	33%	1.0 / 3
N. Van Exel	2	33%	1.0 / 3
R. Nesterovic	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAC

+12

-9

SAS

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.08 53.8%

SAS

1.31 65.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Playoff Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	107.9 112.6	SAC 112.6 SAS 123.9 +11.2
Pace	88.6 89.4	SAC 86.9 SAS 88.1 +1.2
Avg. Poss. Time	15.2 16.5	SAC 16.6 SAS 16.3 +0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	47.7% 53.3%	SAC 50.6% SAS 62.5% +11.9%
TO %	14.0% 13.8%	SAC 9.3% +5.6% SAS 14.9%
ORB %	29.0% 22.9%	SAC 25.0% SAS 26.9% +1.9%
FTrt	36.9 42.0	SAC 32.5 SAS 39.7 +7.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	44.2% 47.9%	SAC 50.0% SAS 69.2% +19.2%
STL %	8.2% 7.2%	SAC 12.6% +9.2% SAS 3.4%
BLK %	4.4% 8.5%	SAC 5.8% SAS 7.3% +1.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Playoff Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.9% 56.9%	SAC 53.8% SAS 65.7% +11.9%
Rim FG%	59.4% 62.8%	SAC 52.2% SAS 73.1% +20.9%
Mid FG%	36.5% 41.0%	SAC 37.5% SAS 50.0% +12.5%
3P %	33.0% 39.2%	SAC 45.5% +1.7% SAS 43.8%
FT %	79.2% 77.7%	SAC 80.0% SAS 88.9% +8.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.3% 39.4%	SAC 29.9% SAS 38.2% +8.4%
Mid Att. %	42.6% 40.0%	SAC 41.6% SAS 38.2% +3.3%
3P Att. %	20.0% 20.7%	SAC 28.6% +5.0% SAS 23.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAC	SAS
Possessions	87	88
Possession Minutes	24.0	24.0
Points	98	109
Rebounds	30	40
Assists	17	27
Steals	11	3
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	9 (0)	14 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (1)	7 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	19 (3)	33 (2)
Field Goals	34-77	39-68
At-the-Rim FG	12-23	19-26
Midrange FG	12-32	13-26
2-Point FG	24-55	32-52
3-Point FG	10-22	7-16
Free Throws	20-25	24-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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5 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Metta World Peace F · 6'7" 260 · 26	46.2	24	52%	4	4	5	1	0	2	1	3	4-4	100%	4-13	31%	4-8	50%
Bonzi Wells G · 6'5" 210 · 30	46.0	38	73%	12	2	1	0	3	4	3	9	9-12	75%	10-17	59%	3-3	100%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 28	42.9	8	33%	2	4	2	0	2	4	1	1	0-0	-	1-7	14%	2-5	40%
Brad Miller C · 7'0" 261 · 30	31.0	10	50%	2	4	2	1	1	4	2	0	2-3	67%	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Kenny Thomas F · 6'7" 245 · 29	10.1	2	33%	3	0	1	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Kevin Martin G · 6'7" 199 · 23	37.9	11	61%	5	2	0	1	0	1	2	3	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Shareef Abdur-Rahim F · 6'9" 245 · 29	16.5	5	63%	1	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jason Hart G · 6'3" 180 · 28	5.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Francisco Garcia G-F · 6'7" 215 · 24	3.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ronnie Price G · 6'2" 190 · 23	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Vitaly Potapenko C-F · 6'10" 285 · 31	0.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Corliss Williamson F · 6'7" 245 · 32
Jamal Sampson #31 · F-C · 6'11" 235 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	54%	30	17	11	3	9	0	11	19	20-25	80%	24-55	44%	10-22	45%

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5 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Metta World Peace F · 6'7" 260 · 26	46.2	24	52%	4	4	5	1	0	2	1	3	4-4	100%	4-13	31%	4-8	50%
Bonzi Wells G · 6'5" 210 · 30	46.0	38	73%	12	2	1	0	3	4	3	9	9-12	75%	10-17	59%	3-3	100%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 28	42.9	8	33%	2	4	2	0	2	4	1	1	0-0	-	1-7	14%	2-5	40%
Brad Miller C · 7'0" 261 · 30	31.0	10	50%	2	4	2	1	1	4	2	0	2-3	67%	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Kenny Thomas F · 6'7" 245 · 29	10.1	2	33%	3	0	1	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Kevin Martin G · 6'7" 199 · 23	37.9	11	61%	5	2	0	1	0	1	2	3	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Shareef Abdur-Rahim F · 6'9" 245 · 29	16.5	5	63%	1	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jason Hart G · 6'3" 180 · 28	5.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Francisco Garcia G-F · 6'7" 215 · 24	3.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ronnie Price G · 6'2" 190 · 23	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Vitaly Potapenko C-F · 6'10" 285 · 31	0.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Corliss Williamson F · 6'7" 245 · 32
Jamal Sampson #31 · F-C · 6'11" 235 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	54%	30	17	11	3	9	0	11	19	20-25	80%	24-55	44%	10-22	45%

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2 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 24	38.3	21	62%	4	3	0	0	3	2	0	4	4-6	67%	7-12	58%	1-2	50%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 30	36.1	24	80%	9	5	0	0	3	4	2	7	6-7	86%	9-12	75%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 29	36.0	27	75%	9	4	0	2	4	2	0	9	8-8	100%	8-12	67%	1-2	50%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 35	31.7	16	89%	0	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0-0	-	5-5	100%	2-4	50%
Robert Horry C · 6'10" 240 · 36	18.6	2	33%	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Michael Finley G-F · 6'7" 225 · 33	30.7	10	50%	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	2-5	40%
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 34	22.9	7	70%	3	3	1	0	0	2	1	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Nick Van Exel G · 6'1" 190 · 34	14.3	2	33%	4	4	0	0	2	2	1	3	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 30	10.5	0	0%	4	0	0	0	0	4	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Beno Udrih G · 6'3" 205 · 24	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 31	0.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 29
Sean Marks #40 · F-C · 6'10" 250 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	66%	40	27	3	4	14	0	7	33	24-27	89%	32-52	62%	7-16	44%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Playoff Avg

Playoff Avg

BOXSCORE