FinalWin Prob.pScore
1230%107
100
470%114
107
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
106.49493.1
OKC logo OKC
111.59697.0

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

ThunderHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

ThunderHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIAOKC
Q4 - 0:00.0End of 4th Quarter.100
0%
107
100%
Q4 - 0:15.1ThunderChet Holmgren defensive rebound100
0.1%
107
99.9%
Q4 - 0:19.5HeatShai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Terry Rozier's three point stepback jump shot100
0.1%
107
99.9%
Q4 - 0:23.2ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2100
0.4%
107
99.6%
Q4 - 0:23.2ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2100
0.4%
106
99.6%
Q4 - 0:23.2HeatTerry Rozier shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)100
0.2%
106
99.8%
Q4 - 0:28.6ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound100
0.4%
106
99.6%
Q4 - 0:31.1HeatJimmy Butler misses three point jump shot100
0.5%
106
99.5%
Q4 - 0:39.7ThunderJalen Williams makes two point driving layup100
1.8%
106
98.2%
Q4 - 0:45.7HeatTerry Rozier personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)100
3.8%
104
96.2%
Q4 - 0:50.2ThunderLuguentz Dort offensive rebound100
4.4%
104
95.6%
Q4 - 0:52.4ThunderJalen Williams misses two point fadeaway jump shot100
7.1%
104
92.9%
Q4 - 1:13HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point pullup jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)100
5.4%
104
94.6%
Q4 - 1:25ThunderJaylin Williams personal foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)97
2.5%
104
97.5%
Q4 - 1:36ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point stepback jump shot97
3.0%
104
97.0%
Q4 - 1:47HeatTerry Rozier makes two point pullup jump shot97
7.6%
101
92.4%
Q4 - 1:57ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot95
5.3%
101
94.7%
Q4 - 2:11HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 295
6.9%
99
93.1%
Q4 - 2:11HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 294
6.4%
99
93.6%
Q4 - 2:11ThunderLuguentz Dort shooting foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)93
5.8%
99
94.2%
Q4 - 2:29ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 293
5.2%
99
94.8%
Q4 - 2:29ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 293
5.5%
98
94.5%
Q4 - 2:29HeatBam Adebayo shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)93
5.8%
97
94.2%
Q4 - 2:47ThunderLuguentz Dort defensive rebound93
6.7%
97
93.3%
Q4 - 2:50HeatJimmy Butler misses regular free throw 1 of 193
7.3%
97
92.7%
Q4 - 2:50ThunderLuguentz Dort shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)93
9.9%
97
90.1%
Q4 - 3:04ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point pullup jump shot91
6.6%
97
93.4%
Q4 - 3:22HeatTerry Rozier makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)91
8.5%
95
91.5%
Q4 - 3:41ThunderJaylin Williams makes two point tip layup88
6.3%
95
93.7%
Q4 - 3:41ThunderJaylin Williams offensive rebound88
8.4%
93
91.6%
Q4 - 3:42ThunderIsaiah Joe misses two point finger roll layup88
10.8%
93
89.2%
Q4 - 4:08HeatTerry Rozier makes two point driving layup88
8.2%
93
91.8%
Q4 - 4:15HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound86
6.0%
93
94.0%
Q4 - 4:18ThunderIsaiah Joe misses three point jump shot86
5.4%
93
94.6%
Q4 - 4:33ThunderJaylin Williams defensive rebound86
4.1%
93
95.9%
Q4 - 4:37HeatCaleb Martin misses three point jump shot86
4.6%
93
95.4%
Q4 - 5:01ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point pullup jump shot86
7.6%
93
92.4%
Q4 - 5:12ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound86
9.8%
91
90.2%
Q4 - 5:15HeatBam Adebayo misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot86
10.8%
91
89.2%
Q4 - 5:39HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound86
13.2%
91
86.8%
Q4 - 5:41ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point stepback jump shot86
12.1%
91
87.9%
Q4 - 6:01ThunderLuguentz Dort defensive rebound86
10.9%
91
89.1%
Q4 - 6:03HeatCaleb Martin misses two point driving bank jump shot86
11.9%
91
88.1%
Q4 - 6:19ThunderIsaiah Joe makes two point jump shot (Aaron Wiggins assists)86
14.6%
91
85.4%
Q4 - 6:21ThunderAaron Wiggins offensive rebound86
17.7%
89
82.3%
Q4 - 6:24ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point stepback jump shot86
21.4%
89
78.6%
Q4 - 6:33ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound86
17.7%
89
82.3%
Q4 - 6:38HeatShai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s two point turnaround jump shot86
19.2%
89
80.8%
Q4 - 6:58ThunderAaron Wiggins makes two point driving dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)86
23.2%
89
76.8%
Q4 - 7:07HeatNikola Jovic personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)86
27.2%
87
72.8%
Q4 - 7:16HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 286
27.2%
87
72.8%
Q4 - 7:16HeatJimmy Butler misses regular free throw 1 of 285
26.5%
87
73.5%
Q4 - 7:16ThunderAaron Wiggins shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)85
31.0%
87
69.0%
Q4 - 7:21HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound85
28.4%
87
71.6%
Q4 - 7:23ThunderJosh Giddey misses three point jump shot85
26.4%
87
73.6%
Q4 - 7:37HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point cutting layup (Jimmy Butler assists)85
22.3%
87
77.7%
Q4 - 7:50HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound83
19.0%
87
81.0%
Q4 - 7:52ThunderJosh Giddey misses two point running finger roll layup83
17.6%
87
82.4%
Q4 - 7:57ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound83
14.6%
87
85.4%
Q4 - 8:00HeatPatty Mills misses three point jump shot83
15.8%
87
84.2%
Q4 - 8:19ThunderChet Holmgren makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)83
19.2%
87
80.8%
Q4 - 8:30HeatCaleb Martin personal foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)83
27.6%
84
72.4%
Q4 - 8:40HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)83
27.6%
84
72.4%
Q4 - 8:45HeatJimmy Butler offensive rebound81
23.3%
84
76.7%
Q4 - 8:46HeatAaron Wiggins blocks Jimmy Butler's two point driving layup81
20.2%
84
79.8%
Q4 - 9:10ThunderJosh Giddey makes two point driving bank jump shot (Luguentz Dort assists)81
23.6%
84
76.4%
Q4 - 9:27HeatJimmy Butler makes two point tip layup81
27.4%
82
72.6%
Q4 - 9:27HeatJimmy Butler offensive rebound79
23.5%
82
76.5%
Q4 - 9:28HeatJimmy Butler misses two point driving bank jump shot79
20.4%
82
79.6%
Q4 - 9:34ThunderJalen Williams turnover (bad pass) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)79
23.5%
82
76.5%
Q4 - 9:44HeatNikola Jovic makes two point floating jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)79
19.2%
82
80.8%
Q4 - 10:03ThunderJalen Williams turnover (offensive foul)77
17.1%
82
82.9%
Q4 - 10:03ThunderJalen Williams offensive foul (Charge) (Patty Mills draws the foul)77
13.9%
82
86.1%
Q4 - 10:25HeatCaleb Martin makes two point driving floating jump shot77
13.8%
82
86.2%
Q4 - 10:36ThunderAaron Wiggins makes two point driving reverse layup (Josh Giddey assists)75
11.7%
82
88.3%
Q4 - 10:43ThunderJalen Williams defensive rebound75
13.8%
80
86.2%
Q4 - 10:45HeatJimmy Butler misses two point driving bank jump shot75
14.7%
80
85.3%
Q4 - 10:58HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound75
17.0%
80
83.0%
Q4 - 11:00ThunderJosh Giddey misses three point jump shot75
15.9%
80
84.1%
Q4 - 11:07ThunderAaron Wiggins offensive rebound75
14.7%
80
85.3%
Q4 - 11:11ThunderChet Holmgren misses three point jump shot75
16.5%
80
83.5%
Q4 - 11:25HeatPatty Mills makes two point cutting layup (Nikola Jovic assists)75
14.6%
80
85.4%
Q4 - 11:43ThunderAaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)73
12.2%
80
87.8%
Q4 - 11:46ThunderJalen Williams offensive rebound73
17.4%
77
82.6%
Q4 - 11:48ThunderJalen Williams misses two point driving floating jump shot73
19.6%
77
80.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0End of 3rd Quarter.73
17.4%
77
82.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0ThunderThunder offensive rebound73
17.4%
77
82.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0ThunderIsaiah Joe misses three point pullup jump shot73
19.6%
77
80.4%
Q3 - 0:01.6ThunderIsaiah Joe defensive rebound73
17.9%
77
82.1%
Q3 - 0:03.7HeatNikola Jovic misses three point jump shot73
18.8%
77
81.2%
Q3 - 0:19.4HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound73
20.8%
77
79.2%
Q3 - 0:22.5ThunderCason Wallace misses three point jump shot73
19.9%
77
80.1%
Q3 - 0:31.5ThunderLuguentz Dort defensive rebound73
17.9%
77
82.1%
Q3 - 0:34.9HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot73
18.7%
77
81.3%
Q3 - 0:49.4ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot73
20.8%
77
79.2%
Q3 - 0:59.6HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving layup73
24.4%
75
75.6%
Q3 - 1:15ThunderLuguentz Dort makes two point cutting layup (Gordon Hayward assists)71
21.3%
75
78.7%
Q3 - 1:31HeatJimmy Butler makes two point turnaround jump shot71
24.4%
73
75.6%
Q3 - 1:55ThunderIsaiah Joe makes three point stepback jump shot (Luguentz Dort assists)69
21.2%
73
78.8%
Q3 - 2:03ThunderIsaiah Joe offensive rebound69
27.9%
70
72.1%
Q3 - 2:06ThunderGordon Hayward misses three point jump shot69
30.5%
70
69.5%
Q3 - 2:22HeatNikola Jovic makes regular free throw 2 of 269
27.9%
70
72.1%
Q3 - 2:22HeatNikola Jovic makes regular free throw 1 of 268
27.0%
70
73.0%
Q3 - 2:22ThunderGordon Hayward shooting foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)67
26.0%
70
74.0%
Q3 - 2:37ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 267
24.7%
70
75.3%
Q3 - 2:37ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 267
25.1%
69
74.9%
Q3 - 2:37HeatCaleb Martin shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)67
25.5%
68
74.5%
Q3 - 2:50HeatHeat turnover (shot clock violation)67
27.9%
68
72.1%
Q3 - 3:04ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)67
32.0%
68
68.0%
Q3 - 3:14HeatTerry Rozier defensive rebound67
32.0%
68
68.0%
Q3 - 3:18ThunderIsaiah Joe misses three point jump shot67
30.7%
68
69.3%
Q3 - 3:38HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving bank jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)67
27.9%
68
72.1%
Q3 - 3:50HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound65
25.1%
68
74.9%
Q3 - 3:54ThunderIsaiah Joe misses two point stepback jump shot65
24.0%
68
76.0%
Q3 - 4:04ThunderJaylin Williams defensive rebound65
21.8%
68
78.2%
Q3 - 4:06HeatBam Adebayo misses two point tip layup65
22.8%
68
77.2%
Q3 - 4:08HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound65
25.0%
68
75.0%
Q3 - 4:09HeatTerry Rozier misses two point driving bank jump shot65
22.8%
68
77.2%
Q3 - 4:24HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound65
25.0%
68
75.0%
Q3 - 4:28ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point driving finger roll layup65
24.0%
68
76.0%
Q3 - 4:40HeatBam Adebayo turnover (out of bounds bad pass)65
21.8%
68
78.2%
Q3 - 4:50ThunderJalen Williams personal foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)65
25.1%
68
74.9%
Q3 - 5:01ThunderJalen Williams makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)65
25.1%
68
74.9%
Q3 - 5:20ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound65
31.0%
65
69.0%
Q3 - 5:24HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot65
32.1%
65
67.9%
Q3 - 5:30ThunderJalen Williams personal foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)65
34.7%
65
65.3%
Q3 - 5:45ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 165
34.7%
65
65.3%
Q3 - 5:45HeatCaleb Martin shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)65
35.1%
64
64.9%
Q3 - 5:56HeatNikola Jovic turnover (out of bounds step)65
41.6%
62
58.4%
Q3 - 6:12ThunderLuguentz Dort makes two point running layup65
45.1%
62
54.9%
Q3 - 6:15HeatBam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Luguentz Dort steals)65
48.3%
60
51.7%
Q3 - 6:25HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound65
52.5%
60
47.5%
Q3 - 6:30ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point driving floating jump shot65
51.2%
60
48.8%
Q3 - 6:47ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound65
48.3%
60
51.7%
Q3 - 6:49HeatTerry Rozier misses three point jump shot65
49.6%
60
50.4%
Q3 - 7:09ThunderJalen Williams makes two point driving floating jump shot65
51.5%
60
48.5%
Q3 - 7:19HeatBam Adebayo turnover (out of bounds bad pass)65
54.5%
58
45.5%
Q3 - 7:33ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)65
58.7%
58
41.3%
Q3 - 7:43HeatTerry Rozier personal foul (Josh Giddey draws the foul)65
61.6%
56
38.4%
Q3 - 7:45ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound65
61.6%
56
38.4%
Q3 - 7:47HeatTerry Rozier misses two point stepback jump shot65
62.8%
56
37.2%
Q3 - 8:03ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot65
64.0%
56
36.0%
Q3 - 8:18HeatDuncan Robinson turnover (lost ball) (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)65
66.6%
54
33.4%
Q3 - 8:21HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound65
70.2%
54
29.8%
Q3 - 8:24HeatBam Adebayo misses two point floating jump shot65
67.8%
54
32.2%
Q3 - 8:45HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound65
70.3%
54
29.7%
Q3 - 8:48ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point running pullup jump shot65
69.2%
54
30.8%
Q3 - 8:54ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound65
66.7%
54
33.3%
Q3 - 8:56HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot65
67.8%
54
32.2%
Q3 - 9:11ThunderJosh Giddey makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)65
68.6%
54
31.4%
Q3 - 9:31HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)65
73.7%
51
26.3%
Q3 - 9:47HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound62
68.7%
51
31.3%
Q3 - 9:50ThunderLuguentz Dort misses three point jump shot62
67.7%
51
32.3%
Q3 - 10:01HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 262
63.7%
51
36.3%
Q3 - 10:01HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 261
63.4%
51
36.6%
Q3 - 10:01ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)60
62.9%
51
37.1%
Q3 - 10:11ThunderJosh Giddey makes two point driving layup60
61.4%
51
38.6%
Q3 - 10:33HeatNikola Jovic makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)60
63.8%
49
36.2%
Q3 - 10:44HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound57
58.3%
49
41.7%
Q3 - 10:46ThunderBam Adebayo blocks Chet Holmgren's two point pullup jump shot57
57.1%
49
42.9%
Q3 - 10:56ThunderJalen Williams defensive rebound57
54.4%
49
45.6%
Q3 - 10:59HeatJimmy Butler misses three point jump shot57
55.6%
49
44.4%
Q3 - 11:15ThunderChet Holmgren makes two point running dunk (Josh Giddey assists)57
56.9%
49
43.1%
Q3 - 11:23ThunderChet Holmgren defensive rebound57
59.9%
47
40.1%
Q3 - 11:23HeatJalen Williams blocks Terry Rozier's two point driving layup57
60.8%
47
39.2%
Q3 - 11:31HeatTerry Rozier defensive rebound57
63.1%
47
36.9%
Q3 - 11:33ThunderLuguentz Dort misses three point running pullup jump shot57
62.1%
47
37.9%
Q3 - 11:38ThunderLuguentz Dort defensive rebound57
59.9%
47
40.1%
Q3 - 11:42HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point pullup jump shot57
60.9%
47
39.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0End of 1st Half.57
63.1%
47
36.9%
Q2 - 0:00.5ThunderThunder offensive rebound57
59.0%
47
41.0%
Q2 - 0:00.5ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot57
60.8%
47
39.2%
Q2 - 0:12.8HeatTerry Rozier makes three point jump shot (Haywood Highsmith assists)57
59.1%
47
40.9%
Q2 - 0:31.6ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 254
52.5%
47
47.5%
Q2 - 0:31.6ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 254
52.8%
46
47.2%
Q2 - 0:31.6HeatHaywood Highsmith shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)54
53.2%
45
46.8%
Q2 - 0:41.9HeatJimmy Butler makes two point layup (Terry Rozier assists)54
56.1%
45
43.9%
Q2 - 0:48.5HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound52
52.5%
45
47.5%
Q2 - 0:51.3ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point running pullup jump shot52
51.7%
45
48.3%
Q2 - 0:57.0ThunderGordon Hayward defensive rebound52
49.9%
45
50.1%
Q2 - 0:58.9HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot52
50.7%
45
49.3%
Q2 - 1:14HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound52
51.9%
45
48.1%
Q2 - 1:18ThunderGordon Hayward misses two point driving floating jump shot52
51.1%
45
48.9%
Q2 - 1:30HeatJimmy Butler turnover (offensive foul)52
49.4%
45
50.6%
Q2 - 1:30HeatJimmy Butler offensive foul (Charge) (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)52
51.9%
45
48.1%
Q2 - 1:57ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround fadeaway bank jump shot52
51.9%
45
48.1%
Q2 - 2:10ThunderIsaiah Joe defensive rebound52
53.7%
43
46.3%
Q2 - 2:13HeatBam Adebayo misses two point putback layup52
54.7%
43
45.3%
Q2 - 2:15HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound52
56.9%
43
43.1%
Q2 - 2:18HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point pullup jump shot52
54.7%
43
45.3%
Q2 - 2:26HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound52
57.0%
43
43.0%
Q2 - 2:29ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot52
56.0%
43
44.0%
Q2 - 2:49HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point cutting dunk (Bam Adebayo assists)52
53.9%
43
46.1%
Q2 - 3:05HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound50
50.1%
43
49.9%
Q2 - 3:07ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point driving reverse layup50
49.0%
43
51.0%
Q2 - 3:17ThunderAaron Wiggins defensive rebound50
46.7%
43
53.3%
Q2 - 3:19HeatTerry Rozier misses two point driving floating jump shot50
47.8%
43
52.2%
Q2 - 3:42ThunderIsaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)50
50.2%
43
49.8%
Q2 - 3:53HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 250
55.3%
40
44.7%
Q2 - 3:53HeatBam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 249
54.8%
40
45.2%
Q2 - 3:53ThunderJaylin Williams shooting foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)49
57.0%
40
43.0%
Q2 - 3:58HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound49
55.8%
40
44.2%
Q2 - 4:01HeatCaleb Martin misses two point stepback jump shot49
52.3%
40
47.7%
Q2 - 4:17ThunderJalen Williams personal foul (Duncan Robinson draws the foul)49
54.4%
40
45.6%
Q2 - 4:25ThunderJalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 249
54.5%
40
45.5%
Q2 - 4:25ThunderJalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 249
54.9%
39
45.1%
Q2 - 4:25HeatTerry Rozier shooting foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)49
55.4%
38
44.6%
Q2 - 4:29HeatTerry Rozier turnover (bad pass) (Jaylin Williams steals)49
56.9%
38
43.1%
Q2 - 4:37HeatTerry Rozier defensive rebound49
59.9%
38
40.1%
Q2 - 4:39ThunderAaron Wiggins misses three point running jump shot49
59.0%
38
41.0%
Q2 - 4:44ThunderJalen Williams defensive rebound49
56.9%
38
43.1%
Q2 - 4:48HeatCaleb Martin misses two point driving floating jump shot49
57.8%
38
42.2%
Q2 - 5:00HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound49
59.9%
38
40.1%
Q2 - 5:02ThunderJaylin Williams misses two point turnaround jump shot49
58.2%
38
41.8%
Q2 - 5:17HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving layup (Bam Adebayo assists)49
55.9%
38
44.1%
Q2 - 5:32ThunderJaylin Williams makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)47
53.9%
38
46.1%
Q2 - 5:45HeatBam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Gordon Hayward steals)47
58.6%
35
41.4%
Q2 - 6:00ThunderLuguentz Dort turnover (bad pass) (Bam Adebayo steals)47
61.8%
35
38.2%
Q2 - 6:13HeatCaleb Martin personal foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)47
57.7%
35
42.3%
Q2 - 6:15ThunderJalen Williams defensive rebound47
57.7%
35
42.3%
Q2 - 6:20HeatNikola Jovic misses three point jump shot47
58.7%
35
41.3%
Q2 - 6:37ThunderLuguentz Dort makes two point driving layup (Gordon Hayward assists)47
60.9%
35
39.1%
Q2 - 6:58HeatCaleb Martin makes two point running layup (Jimmy Butler assists)47
62.9%
33
37.1%
Q2 - 7:03ThunderJosh Giddey turnover (lost ball) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)45
59.8%
33
40.2%
Q2 - 7:16HeatPatty Mills makes three point jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)45
57.2%
33
42.8%
Q2 - 7:30HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound42
52.2%
33
47.8%
Q2 - 7:33ThunderAaron Wiggins misses three point jump shot42
51.4%
33
48.6%
Q2 - 7:49ThunderThunder defensive rebound42
49.5%
33
50.5%
Q2 - 7:50HeatAaron Wiggins blocks Patty Mills's two point pullup jump shot42
50.3%
33
49.7%
Q2 - 8:03HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound42
51.8%
33
48.2%
Q2 - 8:07ThunderJalen Williams misses three point stepback jump shot42
50.9%
33
49.1%
Q2 - 8:15HeatPatty Mills personal foul (Josh Giddey draws the foul)42
49.0%
33
51.0%
Q2 - 8:19ThunderLuguentz Dort defensive rebound42
49.0%
33
51.0%
Q2 - 8:23HeatCaleb Martin misses three point running jump shot42
49.9%
33
50.1%
Q2 - 8:28HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound42
51.8%
33
48.2%
Q2 - 8:30ThunderLuguentz Dort misses three point jump shot42
51.0%
33
49.0%
Q2 - 8:53HeatPatty Mills makes two point pullup jump shot42
49.0%
33
51.0%
Q2 - 9:13ThunderJalen Williams makes two point driving layup (Chet Holmgren assists)40
46.2%
33
53.8%
Q2 - 9:29HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving hook shot40
48.6%
31
51.4%
Q2 - 9:40HeatPatty Mills defensive rebound38
46.2%
31
53.8%
Q2 - 9:45ThunderJalen Williams misses three point stepback jump shot38
45.4%
31
54.6%
Q2 - 9:59HeatPatty Mills makes three point jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)38
43.6%
31
56.4%
Q2 - 10:11HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound35
38.6%
31
61.4%
Q2 - 10:12ThunderChet Holmgren misses three point jump shot35
37.8%
31
62.2%
Q2 - 10:18ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound35
36.1%
31
63.9%
Q2 - 10:21HeatCaleb Martin misses two point driving finger roll layup35
36.9%
31
63.1%
Q2 - 10:34ThunderJalen Williams makes two point layup (Josh Giddey assists)35
38.6%
31
61.4%
Q2 - 10:48HeatPatty Mills turnover (lost ball) (Jalen Williams steals)35
40.9%
29
59.1%
Q2 - 10:50HeatPatty Mills defensive rebound35
43.4%
29
56.6%
Q2 - 10:53ThunderNikola Jovic blocks Jalen Williams's two point driving layup35
42.6%
29
57.4%
Q2 - 11:04HeatPatty Mills makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)35
40.1%
29
59.9%
Q2 - 11:27ThunderJosh Giddey makes two point layup (Cason Wallace assists)32
35.6%
29
64.4%
Q2 - 11:45HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 132
37.9%
27
62.1%
Q2 - 11:45ThunderCason Wallace shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)31
37.6%
27
62.4%
Q1 - 0:00.0End of 1st Quarter.29
33.5%
27
66.5%
Q1 - 0:00.1ThunderThunder defensive rebound29
30.8%
27
69.2%
Q1 - 0:00.3HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point pullup jump shot29
31.4%
27
68.6%
Q1 - 0:01.5HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound29
32.8%
27
67.2%
Q1 - 0:01.5ThunderNikola Jovic blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two point driving layup29
32.2%
27
67.8%
Q1 - 0:11.8HeatCaleb Martin makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)29
30.8%
27
69.2%
Q1 - 0:31.3ThunderCason Wallace makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)26
26.9%
27
73.1%
Q1 - 0:42.1ThunderJaylin Williams offensive rebound26
30.8%
24
69.2%
Q1 - 0:44.3ThunderCason Wallace misses three point jump shot26
32.2%
24
67.8%
Q1 - 0:59.7HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)26
30.8%
24
69.2%
Q1 - 1:14HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound23
26.9%
24
73.1%
Q1 - 1:17ThunderIsaiah Joe misses three point jump shot23
26.3%
24
73.7%
Q1 - 1:39ThunderJaylin Williams defensive rebound23
25.2%
24
74.8%
Q1 - 1:41HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 223
25.4%
24
74.6%
Q1 - 1:41HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 223
26.6%
24
73.4%
Q1 - 1:41ThunderJaylin Williams shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)23
28.2%
24
71.8%
Q1 - 1:44ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)23
26.9%
24
73.1%
Q1 - 1:58HeatCaleb Martin turnover (out of bounds bad pass)23
25.1%
24
74.9%
Q1 - 2:14ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point jump shot (Gordon Hayward assists)23
27.0%
24
73.0%
Q1 - 2:16ThunderIsaiah Joe offensive rebound23
30.4%
21
69.6%
Q1 - 2:21ThunderBam Adebayo blocks Cason Wallace's two point driving floating jump shot23
32.0%
21
68.0%
Q1 - 2:38HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point running layup23
30.4%
21
69.6%
Q1 - 2:42ThunderIsaiah Joe turnover (bad pass) (Duncan Robinson steals)21
28.8%
21
71.2%
Q1 - 3:02HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)21
26.5%
21
73.5%
Q1 - 3:15ThunderIsaiah Joe makes two point running layup (Gordon Hayward assists)18
23.6%
21
76.4%
Q1 - 3:20ThunderGordon Hayward defensive rebound18
24.8%
19
75.2%
Q1 - 3:21HeatJaylin Williams blocks Terry Rozier's two point putback layup18
25.5%
19
74.5%
Q1 - 3:22HeatTerry Rozier offensive rebound18
27.0%
19
73.0%
Q1 - 3:23HeatCason Wallace blocks Terry Rozier's two point running layup18
25.5%
19
74.5%
Q1 - 3:27ThunderCason Wallace turnover (lost ball) (Terry Rozier steals)18
27.0%
19
73.0%
Q1 - 3:42ThunderJaylin Williams defensive rebound18
24.8%
19
75.2%
Q1 - 3:45HeatCaleb Martin misses three point jump shot18
25.5%
19
74.5%
Q1 - 4:00ThunderCason Wallace turnover (out of bounds lost ball)18
27.0%
19
73.0%
Q1 - 4:07HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 218
24.8%
19
75.2%
Q1 - 4:07HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 217
24.6%
19
75.4%
Q1 - 4:07ThunderGordon Hayward shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)16
24.3%
19
75.7%
Q1 - 4:20ThunderGordon Hayward makes three point jump shot (Isaiah Joe assists)16
23.6%
19
76.4%
Q1 - 4:26ThunderThunder offensive rebound16
26.4%
16
73.6%
Q1 - 4:26ThunderCaleb Martin blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two point driving layup16
27.8%
16
72.2%
Q1 - 4:33ThunderJaylin Williams defensive rebound16
26.5%
16
73.5%
Q1 - 4:36HeatLuguentz Dort blocks Bam Adebayo's two point turnaround jump shot16
27.1%
16
72.9%
Q1 - 4:45HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound16
28.5%
16
71.5%
Q1 - 4:47ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 2 of 216
28.2%
16
71.8%
Q1 - 4:47ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 216
26.9%
16
73.1%
Q1 - 4:47HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)16
27.1%
15
72.9%
Q1 - 4:56HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving bank hook shot16
28.1%
15
71.9%
Q1 - 5:11ThunderLuguentz Dort makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)14
26.5%
15
73.5%
Q1 - 5:19HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)14
29.7%
12
70.3%
Q1 - 5:31HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 214
29.7%
12
70.3%
Q1 - 5:31HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 213
29.4%
12
70.6%
Q1 - 5:31ThunderChet Holmgren shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)12
29.1%
12
70.9%
Q1 - 5:44ThunderJalen Williams turnover (traveling)12
28.2%
12
71.8%
Q1 - 6:02HeatBam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)12
26.3%
12
73.7%
Q1 - 6:17ThunderChet Holmgren makes two point alley-oop dunk (Jalen Williams assists)10
24.8%
12
75.2%
Q1 - 6:29ThunderThunder defensive rebound10
26.3%
10
73.7%
Q1 - 6:29HeatJimmy Butler misses three point jump shot10
26.8%
10
73.2%
Q1 - 6:57ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point running finger roll layup (Josh Giddey assists)10
27.9%
10
72.1%
Q1 - 7:02ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound10
29.1%
8
70.9%
Q1 - 7:06HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point running pullup jump shot10
29.7%
8
70.3%
Q1 - 7:09HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound10
31.0%
8
69.0%
Q1 - 7:11ThunderChet Holmgren misses two point driving layup10
30.4%
8
69.6%
Q1 - 7:25HeatTerry Rozier makes two point hook shot10
29.1%
8
70.9%
Q1 - 7:41ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point fadeaway jump shot8
27.8%
8
72.2%
Q1 - 7:45ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound8
29.1%
6
70.9%
Q1 - 7:47HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot8
29.7%
6
70.3%
Q1 - 7:58HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound8
31.1%
6
68.9%
Q1 - 8:03ThunderLuguentz Dort misses three point jump shot8
30.2%
6
69.8%
Q1 - 8:11HeatTerry Rozier makes two point driving finger roll layup8
28.9%
6
71.1%
Q1 - 8:23ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point cutting dunk (Josh Giddey assists)6
27.6%
6
72.4%
Q1 - 8:25HeatDuncan Robinson personal foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)6
28.9%
4
71.1%
Q1 - 8:39ThunderJosh Giddey offensive rebound6
28.9%
4
71.1%
Q1 - 8:39ThunderJosh Giddey misses two point cutting layup6
30.2%
4
69.8%
Q1 - 8:47HeatJimmy Butler makes two point running dunk (Terry Rozier assists)6
28.9%
4
71.1%
Q1 - 8:49HeatTerry Rozier defensive rebound4
27.6%
4
72.4%
Q1 - 8:53ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point fadeaway jump shot4
27.1%
4
72.9%
Q1 - 9:03ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound4
25.9%
4
74.1%
Q1 - 9:05HeatJimmy Butler misses two point driving floating jump shot4
26.4%
4
73.6%
Q1 - 9:17ThunderJosh Giddey makes two point cutting finger roll layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)4
27.5%
4
72.5%
Q1 - 9:28HeatJimmy Butler makes two point cutting layup (Bam Adebayo assists)4
28.9%
2
71.1%
Q1 - 9:46ThunderJalen Williams makes two point cutting layup (Josh Giddey assists)2
27.5%
2
72.5%
Q1 - 10:03HeatJimmy Butler makes two point driving floating jump shot2
28.5%
0
71.5%
Q1 - 10:06HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound0
27.2%
0
72.8%
Q1 - 10:11ThunderLuguentz Dort misses three point jump shot0
26.7%
0
73.3%
Q1 - 10:18ThunderChet Holmgren defensive rebound0
25.6%
0
74.4%
Q1 - 10:20HeatNikola Jovic misses two point driving hook shot0
26.1%
0
73.9%
Q1 - 10:40HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound0
27.2%
0
72.8%
Q1 - 10:43ThunderChet Holmgren misses three point jump shot0
26.7%
0
73.3%
Q1 - 10:53ThunderJosh Giddey defensive rebound0
25.6%
0
74.4%
Q1 - 10:56HeatJimmy Butler misses two point pullup jump shot0
26.1%
0
73.9%
Q1 - 11:08HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound0
26.8%
0
73.2%
Q1 - 11:12ThunderChet Holmgren misses two point driving floating jump shot0
26.3%
0
73.7%
Q1 - 11:26ThunderLuguentz Dort defensive rebound0
25.2%
0
74.8%
Q1 - 11:29HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot0
25.7%
0
74.3%
Q1 - 11:44HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound0
26.8%
0
73.2%
Q1 - 11:48ThunderJalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot0
26.3%
0
73.7%
Q1 - 12:00Bam Adebayo vs. Chet Holmgren (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gains possession)0
25.2%
0
74.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.10 54.9%
OKC
1.08 54.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
19
29
66%
OKC
19
26
73%
Midrange
MIA
8
24
33%
OKC
11
25
44%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
11
16.5
29
38%
57%
OKC
12
18.0
38
32%
47%
Free Throws
MIA
13
18
72%
OKC
11
13
85%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Jaquez2578%12.5 / 16
J. Butler2056%10.0 / 18
T. Rozier1450%7.0 / 14
P. Mills1393%6.5 / 7
D. Robinson956%4.5 / 8
N. Jović758%3.5 / 6
C. Martin735%3.5 / 10
B. Adebayo523%2.5 / 11
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
OKC logo Thunder
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander3762%18.5 / 30
J. Williams1558%7.5 / 13
J. Giddey1161%5.5 / 9
I. Joe1050%5.0 / 10
L. Dort950%4.5 / 9
C. Holmgren739%3.5 / 9
A. Wiggins770%3.5 / 5
J. Williams583%2.5 / 3
G. Hayward350%1.5 / 3
C. Wallace338%1.5 / 4
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
84
+7
-10
91
OKC
87
+12
-9
99
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.10 54.9%
OKC
1.08 54.0%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
113.5
118.4
MIA 106.4
OKC 111.5 +5.1
Pace
96.7
100.8
MIA 93.1
OKC 97.0 +3.9
Avg. Poss. Time
14.8
14.1
MIA 15.5
OKC 14.8 +0.6
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
53.8%
57.3%
MIA 53.0%
OKC 53.9% +0.9%
TO %
12.2%
11.7%
MIA 10.9%
OKC 8.7% +2.2%
ORB %
21.8%
21.2%
MIA 16.3%
OKC 20.0% +3.7%
FTrt
25.7
24.0
MIA 22.0 +7.4
OKC 14.6
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
64.8%
60.9%
MIA 63.2%
OKC 66.7% +3.5%
STL %
7.8%
8.4%
MIA 6.4% +1.2%
OKC 5.2%
BLK %
6.9%
12.6%
MIA 9.8%
OKC 15.1% +5.3%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.27 and 2.27.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
56.2%
59.2%
MIA 54.9% +0.9%
OKC 54.0%
Rim FG%
61.2%
65.1%
MIA 65.5%
OKC 73.1% +7.6%
Mid FG%
44.2%
46.4%
MIA 33.3%
OKC 44.0% +10.7%
3P %
37.0%
38.8%
MIA 37.9% +6.3%
OKC 31.6%
FT %
81.8%
82.5%
MIA 72.2%
OKC 84.6% +12.4%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
30.4%
34.1%
MIA 35.4% +6.2%
OKC 29.2%
Mid Att. %
30.2%
27.5%
MIA 29.3%
OKC 28.1% +1.2%
3P Att. %
39.4%
38.3%
MIA 35.4%
OKC 42.7% +7.3%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIAOKC
Possessions9496
Possession Minutes24.223.8
Points100107
Rebounds4345
Assists2428
Steals65
Blocks58
Turnovers (Team)10 (1)9 (0)
Fouls1616
Off. Rebounds (Team)7 (0)9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)36 (0)36 (3)
Field Goals38-8242-89
At-the-Rim FG19-2919-26
Midrange FG8-2411-25
2-Point FG27-5330-51
3-Point FG11-2912-38
Free Throws13-1811-13
Fast Break Pts812
2nd Chance Pts523
Points in Paint4846
Pts off Turnovers1018
Bench Points4528
Biggest Lead147

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
#22 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 34
37.0
20
56%
10
8
0
0
1
1
2
8
4-6
67%
8-13
62%
0-3
0%
#2 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 30
32.5
14
50%
5
4
1
0
1
4
1
4
0-0
-
4-10
40%
2-4
50%
#13 · C · 6'9" 255 · 27
30.8
5
23%
10
4
1
2
4
1
4
6
3-4
75%
1-9
11%
0-0
-
#5 · PF · 6'10" 205 · 21
29.6
7
58%
8
3
0
2
1
1
0
8
2-2
100%
1-2
50%
1-3
33%
#55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30
28.0
9
56%
2
1
1
0
1
1
0
2
0-0
-
0-0
-
3-8
38%
#11 · SF · 6'6" 225 · 23
31.3
25
78%
3
3
3
0
0
2
0
3
4-6
67%
9-10
90%
1-3
33%
#16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28
30.4
7
35%
3
0
0
1
1
4
0
3
0-0
-
2-6
33%
1-4
25%
#88 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36
15.7
13
93%
2
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
0-0
-
2-3
67%
3-4
75%
#24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27
4.9
0
0%
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
#31 · C · 6'10" 248 · 27
DNP – Coach's Decision
#25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24
DNP – Coach's Decision
#4 · PG · 6'5" 190 · 32
DNP – Coach's Decision
#8 · SF · 6'6" 191 · 25
DNP – Coach's Decision
#21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25
DNP – Coach's Decision
#0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Shoulder; Surgery
#15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25
INACTIVE
#14 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 24
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Foot; Medial Tendinitis
#42 · PF · 6'8" 251 · 35
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Heel; Bruise
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
100
55%
43
24
6
5
10
16
7
36
13-18
72%
27-53
51%
11-29
38%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.