FinalWin Prob.pScore
766%111
117
2634%105
122
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
115.810198.0
CHA logo CHA
123.299102.2

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HornetsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HornetsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIACHA
Q4 - 0:00.0End of 4th Quarter.117
0%
122
100%
Q4 - 0:05.9HeatKyle Lowry makes regular free throw 3 of 3117
0.1%
122
99.9%
Q4 - 0:05.9HeatKyle Lowry makes regular free throw 2 of 3116
0.1%
122
99.9%
Q4 - 0:05.9HeatKyle Lowry makes regular free throw 1 of 3115
0.1%
122
99.9%
Q4 - 0:05.9HornetsJalen McDaniels shooting foul (Kyle Lowry draws the foul)114
0.1%
122
99.9%
Q4 - 0:10.1HornetsTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 2 of 2114
0.1%
122
99.9%
Q4 - 0:10.1HornetsTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 1 of 2114
0.1%
121
99.9%
Q4 - 0:10.1HeatKyle Lowry personal foul (Take) (Terry Rozier draws the foul)114
0.1%
120
99.9%
Q4 - 0:13.1HeatKyle Lowry makes three point jump shot (Victor Oladipo assists)114
0.2%
120
99.8%
Q4 - 0:20.2HornetsMason Plumlee makes two point dunk (P.J. Washington assists)111
0.1%
120
99.9%
Q4 - 0:22.4HornetsP.J. Washington defensive rebound111
0.2%
118
99.8%
Q4 - 0:24.6HeatVictor Oladipo misses three point jump shot111
0.3%
118
99.7%
Q4 - 0:34.1HeatKyle Lowry offensive rebound111
0.6%
118
99.4%
Q4 - 0:35.8HeatTyler Herro misses three point jump shot111
0.3%
118
99.7%
Q4 - 0:45.9HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point putback layup111
1.8%
118
98.2%
Q4 - 0:45.9HornetsP.J. Washington offensive rebound111
3.2%
116
96.8%
Q4 - 0:47.4HornetsP.J. Washington misses two point hook shot111
5.4%
116
94.6%
Q4 - 1:00HeatTyler Herro makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)111
4.5%
116
95.5%
Q4 - 1:13HornetsLaMelo Ball makes two point driving layup108
2.2%
116
97.8%
Q4 - 1:26HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 2108
4.6%
114
95.4%
Q4 - 1:26HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 2107
4.3%
114
95.7%
Q4 - 1:26HornetsP.J. Washington shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)106
4.0%
114
96.0%
Q4 - 1:26HeatJimmy Butler offensive rebound106
3.0%
114
97.0%
Q4 - 1:28HeatKyle Lowry misses two point turnaround jump shot106
2.1%
114
97.9%
Q4 - 1:51HornetsLaMelo Ball makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)106
4.1%
114
95.9%
Q4 - 1:55HornetsTerry Rozier defensive rebound106
8.9%
111
91.1%
Q4 - 1:58HeatKyle Lowry misses three point jump shot106
10.3%
111
89.7%
Q4 - 2:12HornetsMason Plumlee makes two point driving layup106
15.5%
111
84.5%
Q4 - 2:32HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound106
19.3%
109
80.7%
Q4 - 2:36HeatVictor Oladipo misses three point jump shot106
22.9%
109
77.1%
Q4 - 2:53HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound106
34.1%
109
65.9%
Q4 - 2:55HornetsMason Plumlee misses regular free throw 2 of 2106
32.4%
109
67.6%
Q4 - 2:55HornetsMason Plumlee makes regular free throw 1 of 2106
28.1%
109
71.9%
Q4 - 2:55HeatKyle Lowry shooting foul (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)106
31.8%
108
68.2%
Q4 - 3:05HornetsP.J. Washington defensive rebound106
31.0%
108
69.0%
Q4 - 3:08HeatTyler Herro misses three point jump shot106
34.8%
108
65.2%
Q4 - 3:26HeatVictor Oladipo defensive rebound106
44.8%
108
55.2%
Q4 - 3:29HornetsJalen McDaniels misses three point jump shot106
40.2%
108
59.8%
Q4 - 3:31HornetsP.J. Washington offensive rebound106
37.4%
108
62.6%
Q4 - 3:33HornetsP.J. Washington misses three point jump shot106
43.5%
108
56.5%
Q4 - 3:51HeatBam Adebayo makes two point hook shot (Kyle Lowry assists)106
36.5%
108
63.5%
Q4 - 4:00HeatKyle Lowry defensive rebound104
29.0%
108
71.0%
Q4 - 4:03HornetsTerry Rozier misses three point jump shot104
26.5%
108
73.5%
Q4 - 4:20HeatKyle Lowry makes two point layup104
21.4%
108
78.6%
Q4 - 4:24HeatTyler Herro defensive rebound102
16.2%
108
83.8%
Q4 - 4:26HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot102
14.7%
108
85.3%
Q4 - 4:44HeatJimmy Butler makes two point running dunk (Bam Adebayo assists)102
11.5%
108
88.5%
Q4 - 4:47HornetsTerry Rozier turnover (bad pass) (Bam Adebayo steals)100
8.5%
108
91.5%
Q4 - 5:06HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot100
8.8%
108
91.2%
Q4 - 5:17HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound98
6.6%
108
93.4%
Q4 - 5:20HornetsP.J. Washington misses two point bank jump shot98
6.0%
108
94.0%
Q4 - 5:42HeatJimmy Butler makes two point cutting layup (Kyle Lowry assists)98
4.7%
108
95.3%
Q4 - 5:54HornetsTerry Rozier makes two point turnaround jump shot96
3.5%
108
96.5%
Q4 - 6:08HeatJimmy Butler personal foul (Gordon Hayward draws the foul)96
6.7%
106
93.3%
Q4 - 6:13HeatTyler Herro misses three point jump shot96
7.4%
106
92.6%
Q4 - 6:30HornetsTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 2 of 396
7.3%
106
92.7%
Q4 - 6:30HornetsTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 3 of 396
11.8%
105
88.2%
Q4 - 6:30HornetsTerry Rozier misses regular free throw 1 of 396
9.9%
104
90.1%
Q4 - 6:30HeatVictor Oladipo shooting foul (Terry Rozier draws the foul)96
7.9%
104
92.1%
Q4 - 6:43HeatVictor Oladipo makes two point driving layup96
11.2%
104
88.8%
Q4 - 6:54HeatTyler Herro makes technical free throw 1 of 194
9.0%
104
91.0%
Q4 - 6:54HornetsP.J. Washington technical foul93
8.5%
104
91.5%
Q4 - 6:54HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (offensive foul)93
8.5%
104
91.5%
Q4 - 6:54HornetsLaMelo Ball offensive foul (Charge) (Victor Oladipo draws the foul)93
5.0%
104
95.0%
Q4 - 6:56HornetsLaMelo Ball defensive rebound93
5.0%
104
95.0%
Q4 - 6:59HeatMark Williams blocks Bam Adebayo's two point layup93
5.5%
104
94.5%
Q4 - 7:14HornetsGordon Hayward makes two point pullup jump shot93
9.4%
104
90.6%
Q4 - 7:16HornetsMark Williams defensive rebound93
11.3%
102
88.7%
Q4 - 7:17HeatBam Adebayo misses two point tip layup93
12.3%
102
87.7%
Q4 - 7:17HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound93
14.9%
102
85.1%
Q4 - 7:24HeatTyler Herro misses two point driving floating jump shot93
12.3%
102
87.7%
Q4 - 7:35HeatVictor Oladipo defensive rebound93
14.8%
102
85.2%
Q4 - 7:39HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot93
13.6%
102
86.4%
Q4 - 7:51HeatTyler Herro makes two point driving floating jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)93
11.1%
102
88.9%
Q4 - 8:05HornetsLaMelo Ball makes three point pullup jump shot91
10.7%
102
89.3%
Q4 - 8:11HornetsMark Williams defensive rebound91
16.3%
99
83.7%
Q4 - 8:12HeatVictor Oladipo misses three point pullup jump shot91
17.4%
99
82.6%
Q4 - 8:27HornetsDennis Smith Jr. turnover (out of bounds lost ball)91
20.1%
99
79.9%
Q4 - 8:50HeatCaleb Martin makes regular free throw 2 of 291
16.2%
99
83.8%
Q4 - 8:50HeatCaleb Martin misses regular free throw 1 of 290
15.5%
99
84.5%
Q4 - 8:50HornetsLaMelo Ball shooting foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)90
18.1%
99
81.9%
Q4 - 9:05HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound90
19.0%
99
81.0%
Q4 - 9:07HornetsJT Thor misses two point jump shot90
17.8%
99
82.3%
Q4 - 9:24HeatCaleb Martin makes two point jump shot (Max Strus assists)90
15.2%
99
84.8%
Q4 - 9:42HornetsMark Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 188
12.6%
99
87.4%
Q4 - 9:42HeatMax Strus shooting foul (Mark Williams draws the foul)88
13.2%
98
86.8%
Q4 - 9:47HornetsDennis Smith Jr. defensive rebound88
18.3%
96
81.7%
Q4 - 9:51HeatMax Strus misses three point pullup jump shot88
19.5%
96
80.5%
Q4 - 10:16HornetsLaMelo Ball makes two point cutting layup (Gordon Hayward assists)88
24.6%
96
75.4%
Q4 - 10:28HeatMax Strus makes two point driving layup88
28.4%
94
71.6%
Q4 - 10:48HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (bad pass) (Gabe Vincent steals)86
24.6%
94
75.4%
Q4 - 10:53HornetsLaMelo Ball defensive rebound86
20.3%
94
79.7%
Q4 - 10:56HeatVictor Oladipo misses two point pullup bank jump shot86
21.5%
94
78.5%
Q4 - 11:07HornetsLaMelo Ball makes three point pullup jump shot86
26.0%
94
74.0%
Q4 - 11:19Jump ball. Mark Williams vs. Bam Adebayo (LaMelo Ball gains possession)86
34.6%
91
65.4%
Q4 - 11:29HeatGabe Vincent defensive rebound86
39.5%
91
60.5%
Q4 - 11:31HornetsDennis Smith Jr. misses two point driving floating jump shot86
38.0%
91
62.0%
Q4 - 11:46HornetsLaMelo Ball defensive rebound86
34.5%
91
65.5%
Q4 - 11:48HeatMax Strus misses three point jump shot86
36.0%
91
64.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0End of 3rd Quarter.86
39.5%
91
60.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0HornetsTerry Rozier makes three point stepback jump shot86
39.5%
91
60.5%
Q3 - 0:09.3HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound86
51.5%
88
48.5%
Q3 - 0:11.9HeatMax Strus misses three point jump shot86
53.0%
88
47.0%
Q3 - 0:14.7HeatHeat offensive rebound86
56.3%
88
43.7%
Q3 - 0:14.7HeatGabe Vincent misses two point layup86
52.9%
88
47.1%
Q3 - 0:30.9HornetsJalen McDaniels turnover (lost ball) (Victor Oladipo steals)86
56.2%
88
43.8%
Q3 - 0:37.6HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound86
51.4%
88
48.6%
Q3 - 0:41.5HeatGabe Vincent misses three point jump shot86
52.8%
88
47.2%
Q3 - 0:47.7HeatVictor Oladipo offensive rebound86
56.2%
88
43.8%
Q3 - 0:51.1HeatGabe Vincent misses three point jump shot86
52.8%
88
47.2%
Q3 - 0:59.7HornetsJalen McDaniels makes two point driving layup (P.J. Washington assists)86
56.1%
88
43.9%
Q3 - 1:18HeatGabe Vincent makes three point jump shot (Victor Oladipo assists)86
61.5%
86
38.5%
Q3 - 1:39HornetsP.J. Washington makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)83
52.6%
86
47.4%
Q3 - 1:55HeatGabe Vincent makes two point pullup jump shot83
61.5%
83
38.5%
Q3 - 2:17HornetsTerry Rozier makes three point stepback jump shot81
57.8%
83
42.2%
Q3 - 2:33HeatOrlando Robinson turnover (offensive foul)81
65.8%
80
34.2%
Q3 - 2:33HeatOrlando Robinson offensive foul (P.J. Washington draws the foul)81
70.0%
80
30.0%
Q3 - 2:49HornetsP.J. Washington makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)81
70.0%
80
30.0%
Q3 - 2:55HornetsTerry Rozier defensive rebound81
76.6%
77
23.4%
Q3 - 2:58HeatKyle Lowry misses three point jump shot81
77.7%
77
22.3%
Q3 - 3:17HornetsP.J. Washington makes three point jump shot (Mason Plumlee assists)81
79.7%
77
20.3%
Q3 - 3:24HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound81
84.3%
74
15.7%
Q3 - 3:26HeatJimmy Butler misses two point driving reverse layup81
85.1%
74
14.9%
Q3 - 3:36HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point driving hook shot (Terry Rozier assists)81
86.7%
74
13.3%
Q3 - 3:55HeatKyle Lowry makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)81
88.3%
72
11.7%
Q3 - 4:08HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (out of bounds bad pass)78
84.4%
72
15.6%
Q3 - 4:15HornetsP.J. Washington defensive rebound78
81.8%
72
18.2%
Q3 - 4:17HeatTyler Herro misses two point pullup jump shot78
82.6%
72
17.4%
Q3 - 4:23HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound78
84.5%
72
15.5%
Q3 - 4:28HornetsTerry Rozier misses three point stepback jump shot78
83.7%
72
16.3%
Q3 - 4:46HeatJimmy Butler makes two point turnaround jump shot78
81.8%
72
18.2%
Q3 - 4:53HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound76
79.7%
72
20.3%
Q3 - 4:57HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot76
78.7%
72
21.3%
Q3 - 5:00HornetsTerry Rozier defensive rebound76
76.3%
72
23.7%
Q3 - 5:04HeatTyler Herro misses three point jump shot76
77.0%
72
23.0%
Q3 - 5:15HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound76
79.1%
72
20.9%
Q3 - 5:16HornetsTerry Rozier misses two point running layup76
78.2%
72
21.8%
Q3 - 5:18HornetsLaMelo Ball defensive rebound76
76.1%
72
23.9%
Q3 - 5:23HeatTyler Herro misses two point stepback jump shot76
77.1%
72
22.9%
Q3 - 5:35HornetsTerry Rozier makes two point driving floating jump shot76
79.1%
72
20.9%
Q3 - 5:44HeatJimmy Butler makes two point turnaround hook shot (Tyler Herro assists)76
81.4%
70
18.6%
Q3 - 6:11HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point cutting dunk (LaMelo Ball assists)74
79.1%
70
20.9%
Q3 - 6:15HornetsLaMelo Ball defensive rebound74
81.3%
68
18.7%
Q3 - 6:17HeatBam Adebayo misses two point fadeaway jump shot74
82.1%
68
17.9%
Q3 - 6:23HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound74
83.6%
68
16.4%
Q3 - 6:25HornetsP.J. Washington misses two point driving hook shot74
83.0%
68
17.0%
Q3 - 6:41HeatKyle Lowry turnover (out of bounds bad pass)74
81.3%
68
18.7%
Q3 - 6:51HornetsTerry Rozier makes two point running layup (P.J. Washington assists)74
83.6%
68
16.4%
Q3 - 6:55HeatJimmy Butler turnover (lost ball) (P.J. Washington steals)74
85.5%
66
14.5%
Q3 - 7:12HornetsGordon Hayward makes three point jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)74
87.0%
66
13.0%
Q3 - 7:24HeatJimmy Butler makes two point driving layup (Bam Adebayo assists)74
89.8%
63
10.2%
Q3 - 7:47HornetsLaMelo Ball makes two point layup (Terry Rozier assists)72
88.6%
63
11.4%
Q3 - 7:50HeatJimmy Butler turnover (bad pass) (LaMelo Ball steals)72
89.9%
61
10.1%
Q3 - 8:20HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point turnaround hook shot (LaMelo Ball assists)72
91.0%
61
9.0%
Q3 - 8:32HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot72
91.9%
59
8.1%
Q3 - 8:47HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (traveling)70
91.0%
59
9.0%
Q3 - 8:59HeatTyler Herro makes three point pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)70
89.5%
59
10.5%
Q3 - 9:05HeatHeat offensive rebound67
86.6%
59
13.4%
Q3 - 9:05HeatLaMelo Ball blocks Tyler Herro's two point driving layup67
85.3%
59
14.7%
Q3 - 9:16HeatTyler Herro defensive rebound67
86.6%
59
13.4%
Q3 - 9:19HornetsMason Plumlee misses regular free throw 2 of 267
86.3%
59
13.7%
Q3 - 9:19HornetsMason Plumlee makes regular free throw 1 of 267
85.5%
59
14.5%
Q3 - 9:19HeatKyle Lowry shooting foul (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)67
86.2%
58
13.8%
Q3 - 9:21HornetsGordon Hayward offensive rebound67
86.4%
58
13.6%
Q3 - 9:23HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot67
87.6%
58
12.4%
Q3 - 9:33HornetsMason Plumlee defensive rebound67
86.4%
58
13.6%
Q3 - 9:36HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot67
86.9%
58
13.1%
Q3 - 9:49HeatTyler Herro defensive rebound67
88.1%
58
11.9%
Q3 - 9:53HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot67
87.6%
58
12.4%
Q3 - 10:02HornetsMason Plumlee defensive rebound67
86.0%
58
14.0%
Q3 - 10:05HeatBam Adebayo misses two point putback layup67
86.5%
58
13.5%
Q3 - 10:06HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound67
87.7%
58
12.3%
Q3 - 10:08HeatBam Adebayo misses two point driving layup67
86.5%
58
13.5%
Q3 - 10:19HornetsP.J. Washington turnover (bad pass) (Bam Adebayo steals)67
87.7%
58
12.3%
Q3 - 10:28HeatJimmy Butler personal foul (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)67
86.0%
58
14.0%
Q3 - 10:28HornetsMason Plumlee offensive rebound67
86.0%
58
14.0%
Q3 - 10:28HornetsTerry Rozier misses two point pullup jump shot67
87.2%
58
12.8%
Q3 - 10:44HeatTyler Herro makes three point jump shot (Kyle Lowry assists)67
86.0%
58
14.0%
Q3 - 11:00HeatHeat defensive rebound64
82.7%
58
17.3%
Q3 - 11:00HornetsP.J. Washington misses two point driving layup64
82.0%
58
18.0%
Q3 - 11:18HeatCaleb Martin makes two point cutting layup (Jimmy Butler assists)64
80.6%
58
19.4%
Q3 - 11:21HeatJimmy Butler offensive rebound62
78.5%
58
21.5%
Q3 - 11:23HeatCaleb Martin misses three point jump shot62
76.9%
58
23.1%
Q3 - 11:46HeatTyler Herro defensive rebound62
78.5%
58
21.5%
Q3 - 11:48HornetsLaMelo Ball misses two point pullup jump shot62
77.8%
58
22.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0End of 1st Half.62
76.1%
58
23.9%
Q2 - 0:00.9HornetsTerry Rozier makes three point bank jump shot62
78.6%
58
21.4%
Q2 - 0:05.4HeatJimmy Butler makes two point fadeaway jump shot62
82.9%
55
17.1%
Q2 - 0:28.5HornetsDennis Smith Jr. turnover (traveling)60
80.6%
55
19.4%
Q2 - 0:39.6HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 160
78.9%
55
21.1%
Q2 - 0:39.6HornetsJT Thor shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)59
78.6%
55
21.4%
Q2 - 0:55.6HornetsDennis Smith Jr. makes two point driving layup57
73.9%
55
26.1%
Q2 - 1:00HornetsDennis Smith Jr. offensive rebound57
76.7%
53
23.3%
Q2 - 1:02HornetsTerry Rozier misses three point jump shot57
78.2%
53
21.8%
Q2 - 1:03HornetsDennis Smith Jr. offensive rebound57
77.1%
53
22.9%
Q2 - 1:06HornetsDennis Smith Jr. misses two point floating jump shot57
78.2%
53
21.8%
Q2 - 1:19HornetsHornets offensive rebound57
77.0%
53
23.0%
Q2 - 1:20HornetsDennis Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot57
78.1%
53
21.9%
Q2 - 1:22HornetsJT Thor offensive rebound57
77.0%
53
23.0%
Q2 - 1:26HornetsTerry Rozier misses three point jump shot57
78.1%
53
21.9%
Q2 - 1:38HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 257
77.0%
53
23.0%
Q2 - 1:38HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 256
76.7%
53
23.3%
Q2 - 1:38HornetsJalen McDaniels personal foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)55
76.4%
53
23.6%
Q2 - 1:46HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound55
74.1%
53
25.9%
Q2 - 1:48HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot55
73.6%
53
26.4%
Q2 - 2:00HeatJimmy Butler makes two point layup (Kyle Lowry assists)55
72.3%
53
27.7%
Q2 - 2:04HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (bad pass) (Jimmy Butler steals)53
69.6%
53
30.4%
Q2 - 2:13HornetsMark Williams defensive rebound53
66.8%
53
33.2%
Q2 - 2:17HeatKyle Lowry misses three point jump shot53
67.7%
53
32.3%
Q2 - 2:34HornetsMark Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 253
69.5%
53
30.5%
Q2 - 2:34HornetsMark Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 253
70.2%
52
29.8%
Q2 - 2:34HeatJimmy Butler shooting foul (Mark Williams draws the foul)53
70.9%
51
29.1%
Q2 - 2:50HornetsJT Thor defensive rebound53
71.9%
51
28.1%
Q2 - 2:52HeatJimmy Butler misses regular free throw 2 of 253
72.3%
51
27.7%
Q2 - 2:52HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 253
74.0%
51
26.0%
Q2 - 2:52HornetsJT Thor shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)52
73.7%
51
26.3%
Q2 - 3:00HornetsTerry Rozier makes three point jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)52
72.0%
51
28.0%
Q2 - 3:16HeatVictor Oladipo makes three point jump shot52
76.2%
48
23.8%
Q2 - 3:36HeatHeat offensive rebound49
72.2%
48
27.8%
Q2 - 3:36HeatTerry Rozier blocks Victor Oladipo's two point layup49
70.3%
48
29.7%
Q2 - 3:39HeatTyler Herro defensive rebound49
72.2%
48
27.8%
Q2 - 3:41HornetsJalen McDaniels misses three point jump shot49
71.4%
48
28.6%
Q2 - 4:05HeatTyler Herro makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)49
70.1%
48
29.9%
Q2 - 4:22HornetsMason Plumlee turnover (offensive foul)46
65.2%
48
34.8%
Q2 - 4:22HornetsMason Plumlee offensive foul (Charge) (Victor Oladipo draws the foul)46
62.5%
48
37.5%
Q2 - 4:32HornetsGordon Hayward defensive rebound46
62.5%
48
37.5%
Q2 - 4:36HeatKyle Lowry misses three point jump shot46
63.3%
48
36.7%
Q2 - 4:41HornetsJalen McDaniels turnover (bad pass) (Jimmy Butler steals)46
65.1%
48
34.9%
Q2 - 5:03HeatOrlando Robinson makes regular free throw 2 of 246
62.8%
48
37.2%
Q2 - 5:03HeatOrlando Robinson makes regular free throw 1 of 245
62.2%
48
37.8%
Q2 - 5:03HornetsMason Plumlee shooting foul (Orlando Robinson draws the foul)44
61.4%
48
38.6%
Q2 - 5:03HeatOrlando Robinson offensive rebound44
60.8%
48
39.2%
Q2 - 5:03HeatTyler Herro misses two point driving layup44
58.5%
48
41.5%
Q2 - 5:18HornetsGordon Hayward makes three point jump shot (Jalen McDaniels assists)44
60.7%
48
39.3%
Q2 - 5:33HeatJimmy Butler makes two point driving layup44
65.4%
45
34.6%
Q2 - 5:49HornetsTerry Rozier makes two point driving layup42
63.3%
45
36.7%
Q2 - 5:54HornetsTerry Rozier defensive rebound42
65.4%
43
34.6%
Q2 - 5:58HeatTyler Herro misses two point pullup jump shot42
66.3%
43
33.7%
Q2 - 6:09HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point driving hook shot42
68.7%
43
31.3%
Q2 - 6:25HeatHeat turnover (shot clock violation)42
70.4%
41
29.6%
Q2 - 6:25HeatMax Strus offensive rebound42
73.1%
41
26.9%
Q2 - 6:28HeatJimmy Butler misses two point bank hook shot42
71.3%
41
28.7%
Q2 - 6:50HornetsTerry Rozier turnover (traveling)42
73.1%
41
26.9%
Q2 - 7:00HeatMax Strus makes two point driving hook shot42
70.4%
41
29.6%
Q2 - 7:09HeatMax Strus defensive rebound40
68.5%
41
31.5%
Q2 - 7:14HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot40
67.8%
41
32.2%
Q2 - 7:28HornetsMason Plumlee defensive rebound40
66.1%
41
33.9%
Q2 - 7:31HeatBam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 240
66.4%
41
33.6%
Q2 - 7:31HeatBam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 240
67.9%
41
32.1%
Q2 - 7:31HornetsMark Williams shooting foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)40
69.7%
41
30.3%
Q2 - 7:49HornetsGordon Hayward makes regular free throw 1 of 140
68.6%
41
31.4%
Q2 - 7:49HeatTyler Herro shooting foul (Gordon Hayward draws the foul)40
68.9%
40
31.1%
Q2 - 7:54HornetsGordon Hayward defensive rebound40
72.7%
38
27.3%
Q2 - 7:57HeatGabe Vincent misses three point jump shot40
73.4%
38
26.6%
Q2 - 8:07HornetsGordon Hayward makes regular free throw 2 of 240
74.8%
38
25.2%
Q2 - 8:07HornetsGordon Hayward makes regular free throw 1 of 240
75.0%
37
25.0%
Q2 - 8:07HeatCaleb Martin shooting foul (Gordon Hayward draws the foul)40
75.3%
36
24.7%
Q2 - 8:10HornetsGordon Hayward defensive rebound40
76.5%
36
23.5%
Q2 - 8:15HeatBam Adebayo misses two point driving floating jump shot40
77.1%
36
22.9%
Q2 - 8:23HornetsMark Williams personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)40
78.5%
36
21.5%
Q2 - 8:28HornetsMark Williams turnover (bad pass) (Victor Oladipo steals)40
78.5%
36
21.5%
Q2 - 8:43HeatVictor Oladipo makes two point running finger roll layup (Gabe Vincent assists)40
76.6%
36
23.4%
Q2 - 8:47HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (bad pass) (Caleb Martin steals)38
74.8%
36
25.2%
Q2 - 8:56HeatVictor Oladipo turnover (traveling)38
72.6%
36
27.4%
Q2 - 9:09HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound38
74.5%
36
25.5%
Q2 - 9:11HornetsP.J. Washington misses three point jump shot38
73.9%
36
26.1%
Q2 - 9:33HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot (Victor Oladipo assists)38
72.4%
36
27.6%
Q2 - 9:48HornetsDennis Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 236
70.4%
36
29.6%
Q2 - 9:48HornetsDennis Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 236
71.0%
35
29.0%
Q2 - 9:48HeatGabe Vincent shooting foul (Dennis Smith Jr. draws the foul)36
71.7%
34
28.3%
Q2 - 10:00HeatGabe Vincent makes regular free throw 1 of 136
72.4%
34
27.6%
Q2 - 10:00HornetsDennis Smith Jr. shooting foul (Gabe Vincent draws the foul)35
72.2%
34
27.8%
Q2 - 10:11HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point cutting dunk (Mark Williams assists)33
68.4%
34
31.6%
Q2 - 10:20HeatMax Strus makes two point floating jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)33
70.5%
32
29.5%
Q2 - 10:37HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point layup (LaMelo Ball assists)31
68.4%
32
31.6%
Q2 - 10:53HeatMax Strus makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)31
70.5%
30
29.5%
Q2 - 11:09HornetsP.J. Washington makes two point running layup28
66.5%
30
33.5%
Q2 - 11:16HeatBam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Mark Williams steals)28
68.7%
28
31.3%
Q2 - 11:36HornetsMark Williams makes two point turnaround hook shot (LaMelo Ball assists)28
70.6%
28
29.4%
Q2 - 11:48HeatGabe Vincent personal foul (P.J. Washington draws the foul)28
72.7%
26
27.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0End of 1st Quarter.28
72.7%
26
27.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0HornetsHornets offensive rebound28
72.7%
26
27.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0HornetsDennis Smith Jr. misses two point pullup jump shot28
73.9%
26
26.1%
Q1 - 0:30.7HeatMax Strus makes regular free throw 1 of 126
68.8%
26
31.2%
Q1 - 0:30.7HornetsLaMelo Ball personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)25
68.4%
26
31.6%
Q1 - 0:31.3HornetsLaMelo Ball turnover (lost ball) (Bam Adebayo steals)25
68.6%
26
31.4%
Q1 - 0:39.2HornetsLaMelo Ball makes technical free throw 1 of 125
66.8%
26
33.2%
Q1 - 0:39.2HeatChris Quinn technical foul25
67.3%
25
32.7%
Q1 - 0:39.2HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound25
68.8%
25
31.2%
Q1 - 0:40.7HeatVictor Oladipo misses two point pullup jump shot25
69.4%
25
30.6%
Q1 - 0:50.3HeatGabe Vincent defensive rebound25
70.6%
25
29.4%
Q1 - 0:53.7HornetsJalen McDaniels misses three point jump shot25
70.1%
25
29.9%
Q1 - 1:12HeatVictor Oladipo makes two point pullup jump shot25
69.0%
25
31.0%
Q1 - 1:15HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound23
66.8%
25
33.2%
Q1 - 1:20HornetsJalen McDaniels misses three point jump shot23
66.2%
25
33.8%
Q1 - 1:26HeatBam Adebayo turnover (bad pass) (JT Thor steals)23
64.9%
25
35.1%
Q1 - 1:46HornetsJT Thor makes two point jump shot (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)23
66.8%
25
33.2%
Q1 - 1:53HeatMax Strus personal foul (Jalen McDaniels draws the foul)23
69.0%
23
31.0%
Q1 - 2:07HornetsTerry Rozier defensive rebound23
69.1%
23
30.9%
Q1 - 2:11HeatJimmy Butler misses two point layup23
69.7%
23
30.3%
Q1 - 2:15HornetsJalen McDaniels turnover (lost ball) (Orlando Robinson steals)23
71.1%
23
28.9%
Q1 - 2:19HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound23
69.1%
23
30.9%
Q1 - 2:22HeatMax Strus misses three point jump shot23
69.7%
23
30.3%
Q1 - 2:41HeatHeat defensive rebound23
71.0%
23
29.0%
Q1 - 2:43HornetsTerry Rozier misses three point pullup jump shot23
70.5%
23
29.5%
Q1 - 2:47HeatMax Strus turnover (bad pass) (Mark Williams steals)23
69.1%
23
30.9%
Q1 - 2:57HornetsJalen McDaniels personal foul (Loose ball) (Orlando Robinson draws the foul)23
71.0%
23
29.0%
Q1 - 2:57HeatHeat offensive rebound23
71.0%
23
29.0%
Q1 - 2:57HeatOrlando Robinson misses two point tip layup23
69.7%
23
30.3%
Q1 - 2:57HeatOrlando Robinson offensive rebound23
71.0%
23
29.0%
Q1 - 2:57HeatVictor Oladipo misses two point jump shot23
69.7%
23
30.3%
Q1 - 3:11HornetsTerry Rozier makes three point pullup jump shot23
71.0%
23
29.0%
Q1 - 3:15HornetsJalen McDaniels defensive rebound23
74.2%
20
25.8%
Q1 - 3:18HeatTyler Herro misses two point pullup jump shot23
74.8%
20
25.2%
Q1 - 3:44HornetsTerry Rozier makes two point driving finger roll layup (P.J. Washington assists)23
76.2%
20
23.8%
Q1 - 3:54HornetsP.J. Washington offensive rebound23
77.4%
18
22.6%
Q1 - 3:56HornetsMason Plumlee misses two point driving layup23
78.7%
18
21.3%
Q1 - 4:14HeatTyler Herro makes three point jump shot (Victor Oladipo assists)23
77.3%
18
22.7%
Q1 - 4:28HornetsP.J. Washington makes regular free throw 2 of 220
74.5%
18
25.5%
Q1 - 4:28HornetsP.J. Washington makes regular free throw 1 of 220
74.8%
17
25.2%
Q1 - 4:28HeatKyle Lowry shooting foul (P.J. Washington draws the foul)20
75.2%
16
24.8%
Q1 - 4:30HornetsMason Plumlee defensive rebound20
75.8%
16
24.2%
Q1 - 4:34HeatVictor Oladipo misses three point jump shot20
76.4%
16
23.6%
Q1 - 4:44HornetsMason Plumlee turnover (lost ball) (Jimmy Butler steals)20
77.6%
16
22.4%
Q1 - 4:56HeatTyler Herro makes two point pullup jump shot20
75.8%
16
24.2%
Q1 - 5:09HeatHeat offensive rebound18
74.6%
16
25.4%
Q1 - 5:11HeatKyle Lowry misses three point jump shot18
73.4%
16
26.6%
Q1 - 5:22HeatOrlando Robinson defensive rebound18
74.6%
16
25.4%
Q1 - 5:25HornetsJalen McDaniels misses three point jump shot18
74.0%
16
26.0%
Q1 - 5:39HeatJimmy Butler makes two point jump shot18
72.8%
16
27.2%
Q1 - 5:49HornetsLaMelo Ball personal foul (Kyle Lowry draws the foul)16
71.4%
16
28.6%
Q1 - 5:52HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound16
71.4%
16
28.6%
Q1 - 5:54HornetsP.J. Washington misses three point jump shot16
70.8%
16
29.2%
Q1 - 6:12HeatCaleb Martin makes regular free throw 2 of 216
69.8%
16
30.2%
Q1 - 6:12HeatCaleb Martin misses regular free throw 1 of 215
69.4%
16
30.6%
Q1 - 6:12HornetsP.J. Washington shooting foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)15
70.7%
16
29.3%
Q1 - 6:17HeatKyle Lowry defensive rebound15
69.8%
16
30.2%
Q1 - 6:20HornetsTerry Rozier misses three point pullup jump shot15
69.3%
16
30.7%
Q1 - 6:36HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot15
68.0%
16
32.0%
Q1 - 7:02HornetsGordon Hayward makes two point layup (P.J. Washington assists)13
66.9%
16
33.1%
Q1 - 7:15HornetsMason Plumlee defensive rebound13
68.4%
14
31.6%
Q1 - 7:17HeatBam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 213
68.7%
14
31.3%
Q1 - 7:17HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 213
69.8%
14
30.2%
Q1 - 7:17HornetsP.J. Washington shooting foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)12
69.4%
14
30.6%
Q1 - 7:35HornetsMason Plumlee makes two point driving hook shot (LaMelo Ball assists)12
68.5%
14
31.5%
Q1 - 7:54HeatBam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Kyle Lowry assists)12
70.1%
12
29.9%
Q1 - 8:08HornetsMason Plumlee makes two point reverse layup10
69.0%
12
31.0%
Q1 - 8:09HornetsMason Plumlee offensive rebound10
70.5%
10
29.5%
Q1 - 8:12HornetsP.J. Washington misses three point jump shot10
71.7%
10
28.3%
Q1 - 8:29HeatCaleb Martin turnover (offensive foul)10
70.5%
10
29.5%
Q1 - 8:29HeatCaleb Martin offensive foul (Charge) (Terry Rozier draws the foul)10
72.2%
10
27.8%
Q1 - 8:34HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound10
72.2%
10
27.8%
Q1 - 8:37HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point jump shot10
71.7%
10
28.3%
Q1 - 8:58HeatJimmy Butler makes two point driving layup10
70.4%
10
29.6%
Q1 - 9:15HornetsGordon Hayward makes two point layup8
69.0%
10
31.0%
Q1 - 9:22HeatTyler Herro makes two point driving floating jump shot8
70.5%
8
29.5%
Q1 - 9:32HornetsMason Plumlee turnover (offensive foul)6
69.0%
8
31.0%
Q1 - 9:32HornetsMason Plumlee offensive foul (Charge) (Caleb Martin draws the foul)6
67.2%
8
32.8%
Q1 - 9:33HornetsGordon Hayward offensive rebound6
67.2%
8
32.8%
Q1 - 9:36HornetsLaMelo Ball misses three point pullup jump shot6
68.5%
8
31.5%
Q1 - 9:48HeatBam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)6
67.2%
8
32.8%
Q1 - 10:02HornetsLaMelo Ball makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)4
65.9%
8
34.1%
Q1 - 10:12HeatCaleb Martin makes two point fadeaway jump shot4
68.9%
5
31.1%
Q1 - 10:32HornetsGordon Hayward makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)2
67.5%
5
32.5%
Q1 - 10:45HeatTyler Herro makes two point pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)2
70.5%
2
29.5%
Q1 - 11:01HornetsTerry Rozier makes two point putback layup0
69.4%
2
30.6%
Q1 - 11:08HornetsTerry Rozier offensive rebound0
70.6%
0
29.4%
Q1 - 11:08HornetsMason Plumlee misses two point alley-oop layup0
71.8%
0
28.2%
Q1 - 11:14HornetsLaMelo Ball defensive rebound0
70.6%
0
29.4%
Q1 - 11:16HeatKyle Lowry misses two point fadeaway jump shot0
71.2%
0
28.8%
Q1 - 11:17HeatKyle Lowry offensive rebound0
72.3%
0
27.7%
Q1 - 11:19HeatKyle Lowry misses two point cutting layup0
71.2%
0
28.8%
Q1 - 11:33HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound0
72.3%
0
27.7%
Q1 - 11:36HornetsMason Plumlee misses regular free throw 2 of 20
72.1%
0
27.9%
Q1 - 11:36HornetsMason Plumlee misses regular free throw 1 of 20
71.3%
0
28.7%
Q1 - 11:36HeatCaleb Martin shooting foul (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)0
70.5%
0
29.5%
Q1 - 11:38HornetsMason Plumlee defensive rebound0
70.6%
0
29.4%
Q1 - 11:40HeatTyler Herro misses two point driving layup0
71.1%
0
28.9%
Q1 - 12:00Bam Adebayo vs. Mason Plumlee (Kyle Lowry gains possession)0
72.3%
0
27.7%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.09 54.7%
CHA
1.31 65.6%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
17
29
59%
CHA
21
24
88%
Midrange
MIA
18
33
55%
CHA
9
19
47%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
10
15.0
31
32%
48%
CHA
15
22.5
40
38%
56%
Free Throws
MIA
17
23
74%
CHA
17
22
77%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Butler2882%14.0 / 17
T. Herro2457%12.0 / 21
B. Adebayo1750%8.5 / 17
K. Lowry1146%5.5 / 12
M. Strus1056%5.0 / 9
V. Oladipo938%4.5 / 12
C. Martin867%4.0 / 6
G. Vincent857%4.0 / 7
O. Robinson250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
CHA logo Hornets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
T. Rozier3174%15.5 / 21
P. Washington2768%13.5 / 20
G. Hayward20125%10.0 / 8
L. Ball1956%9.5 / 17
M. Plumlee1056%5.0 / 9
M. Williams7117%3.5 / 3
D. Smith Jr.433%2.0 / 6
J. McDaniels217%1.0 / 6
J. Thor250%1.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
91
+15
-10
106
CHA
80
+13
-19
93
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.09 54.7%
CHA
1.31 65.6%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
112.9
108.9
MIA 115.8
CHA 123.2 +7.4
Pace
96.3
101.1
MIA 98.0
CHA 102.2 +4.2
Avg. Poss. Time
15.0
14.0
MIA 14.7
CHA 14.1 +0.6
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
53.0%
51.6%
MIA 53.8%
CHA 63.3% +9.5%
TO %
13.2%
13.4%
MIA 9.6% +7.4%
CHA 17.0%
ORB %
22.8%
23.8%
MIA 21.7%
CHA 29.7% +8.0%
FTrt
27.0
26.1
MIA 24.7
CHA 26.5 +1.8
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
60.8%
60.9%
MIA 57.8% +2.2%
CHA 55.6%
STL %
8.2%
7.6%
MIA 10.9% +4.8%
CHA 6.1%
BLK %
6.3%
9.3%
MIA 0.0%
CHA 4.8% +4.8%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.42 and 2.42.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
55.9%
53.8%
MIA 54.7%
CHA 65.6% +10.9%
Rim FG%
62.6%
60.9%
MIA 58.6%
CHA 87.5% +28.9%
Mid FG%
45.3%
40.8%
MIA 54.5% +7.1%
CHA 47.4%
3P %
34.4%
33.0%
MIA 32.3%
CHA 37.5% +5.2%
FT %
83.1%
74.8%
MIA 73.9%
CHA 77.3% +3.4%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
29.9%
38.1%
MIA 31.2% +2.3%
CHA 28.9%
Mid Att. %
29.4%
25.9%
MIA 35.5%
CHA 22.9% +12.6%
3P Att. %
40.8%
36.0%
MIA 33.3%
CHA 48.2% +14.9%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsMIACHA
Possessions10199
Possession Minutes24.723.3
Points117122
Rebounds3647
Assists2625
Steals116
Blocks03
Turnovers (Team)10 (1)19 (0)
Fouls1718
Off. Rebounds (Team)10 (5)11 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)26 (2)36 (0)
Field Goals45-9345-83
At-the-Rim FG17-2921-24
Midrange FG18-339-19
2-Point FG35-6230-43
3-Point FG10-3115-40
Free Throws17-2317-22
Fast Break Pts1025
2nd Chance Pts1411
Points in Paint5658
Pts off Turnovers2516
Bench Points2915
Biggest Lead1312

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
#13 · C · 6'9" 255 · 26
36.0
17
50%
4
6
3
0
2
0
2
2
1-4
25%
8-15
53%
0-0
-
#14 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 23
34.6
24
57%
5
3
0
0
0
1
0
5
1-1
100%
4-12
33%
5-9
56%
#22 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 33
33.3
28
82%
7
2
3
0
2
3
2
5
6-7
86%
11-14
79%
0-0
-
#7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 37
30.0
11
46%
4
5
0
0
1
4
2
2
3-3
100%
1-4
25%
2-7
29%
#16 · PF · 6'5" 205 · 27
27.5
8
67%
6
3
1
0
1
3
0
6
2-4
50%
3-3
100%
0-1
0%
#4 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31
32.2
9
38%
3
5
2
0
1
1
1
2
0-0
-
3-7
43%
1-5
20%
#2 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 27
18.0
8
57%
2
1
1
0
1
2
0
2
1-1
100%
2-3
67%
1-4
25%
#31 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 27
16.5
10
56%
2
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
1-1
100%
3-3
100%
1-5
20%
#25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23
12.0
2
50%
3
0
1
0
1
1
2
1
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
0-0
-
#24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 26
DNP – Coach's Decision
#21 · C · 7'0" 245 · 33
DNP – Coach's Decision
#40 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 43
DNP – Coach's Decision
#8 · SF · 6'6" 191 · 24
Inactive - G League - Two-Way
#5 · PF · 6'10" 205 · 20
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Lower Back; Stress reaction
#77 · C · 7'0" 275 · 25
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Left Ankle; Surgery
#55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 29
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right 2nd Finger; Surgery
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
117
55%
36
26
11
0
10
17
10
26
17-23
74%
35-62
56%
10-31
32%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.