FinalWin Prob.pScore
264%112
113
1336%107
98
ORTG#PossPace
MIL logo MIL
110.8102104.5
MIA logo MIA
96.110299.6

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatBucksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatBucksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMILMIA
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.113
100%
98
0%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIL
1.15 57.7%
MIA
0.92 45.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIL
23
34
68%
MIA
24
43
56%
Midrange
MIL
7
21
33%
MIA
6
28
21%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIL
12
18.0
33
36%
55%
MIA
8
12.0
22
36%
55%
Free Throws
MIL
17
24
71%
MIA
14
25
56%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIL logo Bucks
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo3379%16.5 / 21
K. Middleton2166%10.5 / 16
E. Bledsoe1757%8.5 / 15
E. Ilyasova1575%7.5 / 10
P. Connaughton1372%6.5 / 9
N. Mirotic850%4.0 / 8
D. Wilson467%2.0 / 3
B. Lopez217%1.0 / 6
M. Brogdon0-0.0 / 3
G. Hill0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Winslow2059%10.0 / 17
H. Whiteside1458%7.0 / 12
J. Richardson1155%5.5 / 10
K. Olynyk1056%5.0 / 9
B. Adebayo1056%5.0 / 9
D. Waiters1056%5.0 / 9
D. Wade1031%5.0 / 16
D. Jones950%4.5 / 9
G. Dragic422%2.0 / 9
R. McGruder0-0.0 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIL
87
+10
-15
97
MIA
90
+17
-12
107
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIL
1.15 57.7%
MIA
0.92 45.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
113.9
107.5
MIL 110.8
MIA 96.1 +14.7
Pace
103.2
98.1
MIL 104.5 +5.0
MIA 99.6
Avg. Poss. Time
13.9
15.0
MIL 13.8 +0.7
MIA 14.5
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
55.0%
51.5%
MIL 54.5% +9.3%
MIA 45.2%
TO %
12.8%
14.3%
MIL 13.2%
MIA 10.3% +2.9%
ORB %
20.8%
24.8%
MIL 18.6% +0.1%
MIA 18.5%
FTrt
25.5
24.7
MIL 27.3 +0.4
MIA 26.9
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
60.1%
61.2%
MIL 69.0% +13.7%
MIA 55.3%
STL %
7.2%
7.8%
MIL 7.8% +0.9%
MIA 6.9%
BLK %
10.4%
10.2%
MIL 12.7% +3.6%
MIA 9.1%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
57.1%
52.9%
MIL 57.7% +11.9%
MIA 45.8%
Rim FG%
64.1%
60.8%
MIL 67.6% +11.8%
MIA 55.8%
Mid FG%
39.4%
36.8%
MIL 33.3% +11.9%
MIA 21.4%
3P %
35.2%
34.9%
MIL 36.4%
MIA 36.4%
FT %
77.2%
69.5%
MIL 70.8% +14.8%
MIA 56.0%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
40.2%
37.3%
MIL 38.6%
MIA 46.2% +7.6%
Mid Att. %
17.8%
25.9%
MIL 23.9% +6.2%
MIA 30.1%
3P Att. %
42.0%
36.8%
MIL 37.5% +13.8%
MIA 23.7%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.25 and 2.25.
Game TotalsMILMIA
Possessions102102
Possession Minutes23.424.6
Points11398
Rebounds5245
Assists2921
Steals87
Blocks95
Turnovers (Team)15 (0)12 (0)
Fouls2118
Off. Rebounds (Team)8 (2)10 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)44 (1)35 (1)
Field Goals42-8838-93
At-the-Rim FG23-3424-43
Midrange FG7-216-28
2-Point FG30-5530-71
3-Point FG12-338-22
Free Throws17-2414-25
Fast Break Pts1213
2nd Chance Pts1222
Points in Paint5854
Pts off Turnovers911
Bench Points4037
Biggest Lead1923

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
#34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 24
34.8
33
79%
16
9
2
3
6
4
2
14
8-11
73%
11-15
73%
1-4
25%
#6 · PG · 6'1" 205 · 29
33.9
17
57%
3
5
3
0
4
3
1
2
4-6
67%
5-9
56%
1-3
33%
#22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 28
32.4
21
66%
5
8
1
0
1
4
0
5
3-5
60%
6-11
55%
2-5
40%
#11 · C · 7'1" 282 · 31
30.4
2
17%
6
2
1
3
0
0
0
6
0-0
-
1-5
20%
0-1
0%
#13 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26
6.5
0
0%
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-2
0%
#41 · PF · 6'10" 238 · 28
28.9
8
50%
6
1
1
2
2
2
1
5
0-0
-
1-4
25%
2-5
40%
#24 · SG · 6'5" 209 · 26
25.0
13
72%
6
1
0
1
1
1
1
5
0-0
-
2-3
67%
3-6
50%
#77 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 32
20.8
15
75%
5
0
0
0
1
3
2
3
2-2
100%
2-4
50%
3-5
60%
#21 · SG · 6'7" 221 · 27
11.0
0
0%
3
1
0
0
0
3
0
3
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
#5 · PF · 6'10" 236 · 23
8.9
4
67%
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0-0
-
2-2
100%
0-2
0%
#3 · PG · 6'3" 188 · 33
7.4
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-0
-
#9 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 22
DNP - Injury/Illness | Injury - Bilateral Heel Bursitis
#17 · C · 7'0" 250 · 39
DNP - Coach's Decision
#23 · SG · 6'6" 230 · 24
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Wrist Soreness
#0 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 21
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
#35 · PF · 6'9" 214 · 23
Inactive - G League Team | Assignment
#50 · SF · 6'6" 225 · 23
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
113
58%
52
29
8
9
15
21
8
44
17-24
71%
30-55
55%
12-33
36%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.