for complete access.
All Games Monday, March 4, 2019
FinalWin Prob.pScore
7
Nuggets
53%115
103
10
Spurs
47%114
104
ORTG#PossPace
DEN logo DEN
107.396103.2
SAS logo SAS
110.69487.9

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

SpursNuggetsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

SpursNuggetsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDENSAS
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.103
0%
104
100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN
1.04 52.0%
SAS
1.08 54.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DEN
9
26
35%
SAS
15
24
63%
Midrange
DEN
15
29
52%
SAS
18
36
50%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DEN
17
25.5
40
43%
64%
SAS
8
12.0
25
32%
48%
Free Throws
DEN
4
4
100%
SAS
14
19
74%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DEN logo Nuggets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Murray2563%12.5 / 20
N. Jokić2285%11.0 / 13
M. Beasley1568%7.5 / 11
W. Barton1267%6.0 / 9
G. Harris844%4.0 / 9
I. Thomas732%3.5 / 11
P. Millsap536%2.5 / 7
T. Craig563%2.5 / 4
M. Morris425%2.0 / 8
M. Plumlee0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
D. DeRozan2460%12.0 / 20
L. Aldridge2258%11.0 / 19
R. Gay1450%7.0 / 14
D. White1142%5.5 / 13
M. Belinelli857%4.0 / 7
P. Mills880%4.0 / 5
B. Forbes770%3.5 / 5
J. Poeltl675%3.0 / 4
D. Bertans225%1.0 / 4
D. Eubanks2100%1.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN
84
+15
-12
99
SAS
85
+10
-9
95
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN
1.04 52.0%
SAS
1.08 54.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
112.6
112.6
DEN 107.3
SAS 110.6 +3.3
Pace
98.0
98.6
DEN 103.2 +15.3
SAS 87.9
Avg. Poss. Time
14.7
15.0
DEN 14.0 +2.4
SAS 16.4
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
52.7%
53.4%
DEN 52.1%
SAS 52.9% +0.8%
TO %
13.1%
11.9%
DEN 11.8%
SAS 8.8% +3.0%
ORB %
26.6%
20.9%
DEN 17.8% +3.2%
SAS 14.6%
FTrt
23.2
23.7
DEN 4.2
SAS 22.4 +18.2
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
65.3%
58.0%
DEN 65.9%
SAS 65.9%
STL %
7.9%
6.2%
DEN 5.2%
SAS 8.5% +3.3%
BLK %
8.2%
8.3%
DEN 5.0%
SAS 12.7% +7.7%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
54.5%
56.0%
DEN 52.0%
SAS 54.2% +2.2%
Rim FG%
59.6%
62.7%
DEN 34.6%
SAS 62.5% +27.9%
Mid FG%
43.3%
44.0%
DEN 51.7% +1.7%
SAS 50.0%
3P %
35.1%
39.2%
DEN 42.5% +10.5%
SAS 32.0%
FT %
75.5%
81.8%
DEN 100.0% +26.3%
SAS 73.7%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
37.5%
27.8%
DEN 27.4%
SAS 28.2% +0.9%
Mid Att. %
27.7%
43.7%
DEN 30.5% +11.8%
SAS 42.4%
3P Att. %
34.8%
28.6%
DEN 42.1% +12.7%
SAS 29.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.9 and 2.9.
Game TotalsDENSAS
Possessions9694
Possession Minutes22.325.7
Points103104
Rebounds4343
Assists2727
Steals58
Blocks37
Turnovers (Team)12 (1)9 (0)
Fouls1713
Off. Rebounds (Team)8 (7)6 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)35 (1)37 (2)
Field Goals41-9541-85
At-the-Rim FG9-2615-24
Midrange FG15-2918-36
2-Point FG24-5533-60
3-Point FG17-408-25
Free Throws4-414-19
Fast Break Pts812
2nd Chance Pts86
Points in Paint4648
Pts off Turnovers915
Bench Points3134
Biggest Lead021

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
7 Denver Nuggets
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
Nikola Jokic
#15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 24
38.4
22
85%
10
6
0
0
3
2
4
6
0-0
-
8-12
67%
2-2
100%
Will Barton
#5 · SF · 6'6" 190 · 28
32.2
12
67%
6
1
0
1
2
1
0
6
0-0
-
3-4
75%
2-6
33%
Paul Millsap
#4 · PF · 6'8" 246 · 34
30.1
5
36%
11
2
1
0
0
4
0
11
0-0
-
1-5
20%
1-3
33%
Jamal Murray
#27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 22
28.3
25
63%
2
8
1
0
4
3
0
2
3-3
100%
2-9
22%
6-10
60%
Gary Harris
#14 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24
26.6
8
44%
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
0-0
-
1-5
20%
2-4
50%
Malik Beasley
#25 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 22
22.1
15
68%
3
3
1
0
0
2
0
3
1-1
100%
4-5
80%
2-6
33%
Monte Morris
#11 · PG · 6'3" 175 · 24
18.9
4
25%
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0-0
-
2-7
29%
0-1
0%
Isaiah Thomas
#0 · PG · 5'9" 185 · 30
15.8
7
32%
2
2
1
0
1
0
1
1
0-0
-
2-6
33%
1-5
20%
Mason Plumlee
#24 · PF · 6'10" 254 · 29
14.3
0
0%
4
3
0
1
1
3
2
2
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-0
-
Torrey Craig
#3 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 28
13.2
5
63%
2
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0-0
-
1-1
100%
1-3
33%
Juancho Hernangomez
#41 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23
DNP - Coach's Decision
Thomas Welsh
#45 · C · 7'0" 255 · 23
DNP - Coach's Decision
Jarred Vanderbilt
#8 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 20
DNP - Coach's Decision
Michael Porter Jr.
#1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 21
Inactive - Injury/Illness | lower back surgery
Tyler Lydon
#20 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 23
Inactive - G League Team | Assignment
Trey Lyles
#7 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 23
Inactive - Injury/Illness | left hamstring strain
Brandon Goodwin
#6 · PG · 6'2" 180 · 23
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
103
52%
43
27
5
3
12
17
8
35
4-4
100%
24-55
44%
17-40
43%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.