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All Games Monday, February 11, 2019
FinalWin Prob.pScore
14
Heat
30%105
87
8
Nuggets
70%112
103
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
88.89892.5
DEN logo DEN
105.198104.2

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

NuggetsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

NuggetsHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIADEN
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.87
0%
103
100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.91 45.3%
DEN
1.08 54.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
16
27
59%
DEN
13
25
52%
Midrange
MIA
9
22
41%
DEN
9
27
33%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
9
13.5
33
27%
41%
DEN
16
24.0
37
43%
65%
Free Throws
MIA
10
16
63%
DEN
11
13
85%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Winslow1542%7.5 / 18
J. Johnson1478%7.0 / 9
J. Richardson1260%6.0 / 10
D. Waiters1155%5.5 / 10
K. Olynyk1139%5.5 / 14
D. Wade850%4.0 / 8
R. McGruder867%4.0 / 6
H. Whiteside638%3.0 / 8
B. Adebayo225%1.0 / 4
D. Robinson0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
DEN logo Nuggets
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
N. Jokić2361%11.5 / 19
M. Beasley23105%11.5 / 11
M. Morris1777%8.5 / 11
M. Plumlee1192%5.5 / 6
J. Murray1045%5.0 / 11
P. Millsap956%4.5 / 8
W. Barton833%4.0 / 12
T. Craig233%1.0 / 3
T. Lyles0-0.0 / 5
J. Hernangomez0-0.0 / 1
J. Vanderbilt0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
82
+13
-16
95
DEN
83
+12
-15
95
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
0.91 45.3%
DEN
1.08 54.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
107.5
112.6
MIA 88.8 +16.3
DEN 105.1
Pace
98.1
98.0
MIA 92.5
DEN 104.2 +11.7
Avg. Poss. Time
15.0
14.7
MIA 15.6
DEN 13.8 +1.8
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
51.5%
52.7%
MIA 47.0%
DEN 51.7% +4.7%
TO %
14.3%
13.1%
MIA 17.6%
DEN 13.7% +3.9%
ORB %
24.8%
26.6%
MIA 16.7%
DEN 20.0% +3.3%
FTrt
24.7
23.2
MIA 19.5 +4.9
DEN 14.6
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
61.2%
65.3%
MIA 67.6%
DEN 71.1% +3.5%
STL %
7.8%
7.9%
MIA 10.2% +3.1%
DEN 7.1%
BLK %
10.2%
8.2%
MIA 9.6%
DEN 12.2% +2.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
52.9%
54.5%
MIA 45.3%
DEN 54.2% +8.9%
Rim FG%
60.8%
59.6%
MIA 59.3% +7.3%
DEN 52.0%
Mid FG%
36.8%
43.3%
MIA 40.9% +7.6%
DEN 33.3%
3P %
34.9%
35.1%
MIA 27.3%
DEN 43.2% +15.9%
FT %
69.5%
75.5%
MIA 62.5%
DEN 84.6% +22.1%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
37.3%
37.5%
MIA 32.9% +4.8%
DEN 28.1%
Mid Att. %
25.9%
27.7%
MIA 26.8% +3.5%
DEN 30.3%
3P Att. %
36.8%
34.8%
MIA 40.2%
DEN 41.6% +1.3%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.25 and 2.25.
Game TotalsMIADEN
Possessions9898
Possession Minutes25.422.6
Points87103
Rebounds4745
Assists2327
Steals107
Blocks56
Turnovers (Team)16 (3)15 (0)
Fouls1617
Off. Rebounds (Team)7 (6)10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)40 (0)35 (3)
Field Goals34-8238-89
At-the-Rim FG16-2713-25
Midrange FG9-229-27
2-Point FG25-4922-52
3-Point FG9-3316-37
Free Throws10-1611-13
Fast Break Pts825
2nd Chance Pts28
Points in Paint4636
Pts off Turnovers1321
Bench Points3228
Biggest Lead420

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
14 Miami Heat
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
Justise Winslow
#20 · PG · 6'7" 225 · 23
36.5
15
42%
4
0
2
0
2
1
0
4
2-4
50%
5-12
42%
1-4
25%
Josh Richardson
#0 · SF · 6'6" 200 · 25
32.8
12
60%
1
8
1
0
7
4
0
1
2-2
100%
2-2
100%
2-7
29%
Dion Waiters
#11 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 27
30.1
11
55%
3
6
0
0
1
1
0
3
0-2
0%
1-3
33%
3-6
50%
Kelly Olynyk
#9 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 28
28.2
11
39%
7
2
2
2
2
4
2
5
2-2
100%
3-7
43%
1-6
17%
Hassan Whiteside
#21 · C · 7'0" 265 · 30
19.9
6
38%
8
0
1
0
0
1
2
6
0-2
0%
3-7
43%
0-0
-
James Johnson
#16 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 32
27.4
14
78%
6
2
1
3
1
1
0
6
2-2
100%
3-4
75%
2-5
40%
Dwyane Wade
#3 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 37
22.1
8
50%
1
3
2
0
1
2
0
1
0-0
-
4-7
57%
0-2
0%
Rodney McGruder
#17 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 28
20.6
8
67%
10
0
0
0
1
1
2
8
2-2
100%
3-3
100%
0-2
0%
Bam Adebayo
#13 · C · 6'9" 255 · 22
18.7
2
25%
5
1
1
0
1
1
1
4
0-0
-
1-4
25%
0-0
-
Ryan Anderson
#31 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 31
1.9
0
0%
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Duncan Robinson
#55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 25
1.9
0
0%
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-1
0%
Udonis Haslem
#40 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39
DNP - Coach's Decision
Derrick Jones Jr.
#5 · SF · 6'6" 210 · 22
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Knee Bone Bruises
Yante Maten
#00 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 22
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
Goran Dragic
#7 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 33
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Knee Surgery
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
87
45%
47
23
10
5
16
16
7
40
10-16
63%
25-49
51%
9-33
27%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.