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All Games Wednesday, November 7, 2018
FinalWin Prob.pScore
20
Spurs
42%112
88
17
Heat
58%115
95
ORTG#PossPace
SAS logo SAS
91.796109.2
MIA logo MIA
99.09685.7

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatSpursQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventSASMIA
Q4 - End of 4th Quarter.88
0%
95
100%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
0.87 43.6%
MIA
0.91 45.7%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
SAS
10
26
38%
MIA
16
34
47%
Midrange
SAS
8
36
22%
MIA
10
27
37%
3PT | Effective 3PT
SAS
13
19.5
32
41%
61%
MIA
10
15.0
32
31%
47%
Free Throws
SAS
13
14
93%
MIA
13
18
72%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
SAS logo Spurs
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
P. Mills2050%10.0 / 20
D. Bertans1986%9.5 / 11
D. DeRozan1856%9.0 / 16
B. Forbes1246%6.0 / 13
M. Belinelli831%4.0 / 13
L. Aldridge620%3.0 / 15
J. Poeltl330%1.5 / 5
D. Cunningham2100%1.0 / 1
D. White0-0.0 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
H. Whiteside2966%14.5 / 22
W. Ellington2083%10.0 / 12
J. Winslow1650%8.0 / 16
J. Richardson1433%7.0 / 21
T. Johnson941%4.5 / 11
R. McGruder425%2.0 / 8
B. Adebayo250%1.0 / 2
K. Olynyk150%0.5 / 1
D. Jones0-0.0 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAS
84
+17
-12
101
MIA
83
+20
-13
103
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS
0.87 43.6%
MIA
0.91 45.7%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
112.6
107.5
SAS 91.7
MIA 99.0 +7.3
Pace
98.6
98.1
SAS 109.2 +23.5
MIA 85.7
Avg. Poss. Time
15.0
15.0
SAS 13.2 +3.6
MIA 16.8
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
53.4%
51.5%
SAS 39.9%
MIA 44.1% +4.2%
TO %
11.9%
14.3%
SAS 10.7% +0.7%
MIA 11.4%
ORB %
20.9%
24.8%
SAS 20.7%
MIA 27.5% +6.8%
FTrt
23.7
24.7
SAS 14.9
MIA 19.4 +4.5
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
58.0%
61.2%
SAS 61.3% +3.0%
MIA 58.3%
STL %
6.2%
7.8%
SAS 8.3%
MIA 8.3%
BLK %
8.3%
10.2%
SAS 8.2%
MIA 17.7% +9.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
56.0%
52.9%
SAS 43.6%
MIA 45.7% +2.1%
Rim FG%
62.7%
60.8%
SAS 38.5%
MIA 47.1% +8.6%
Mid FG%
44.0%
36.8%
SAS 22.2%
MIA 37.0% +14.8%
3P %
39.2%
34.9%
SAS 40.6% +9.3%
MIA 31.3%
FT %
81.8%
69.5%
SAS 92.9% +20.7%
MIA 72.2%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
27.8%
37.3%
SAS 27.7%
MIA 36.6% +8.9%
Mid Att. %
43.7%
25.9%
SAS 38.3%
MIA 29.0% +9.3%
3P Att. %
28.6%
36.8%
SAS 34.0%
MIA 34.4% +0.4%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.9 and 2.9.
Game TotalsSASMIA
Possessions9696
Possession Minutes21.126.9
Points8895
Rebounds4960
Assists1921
Steals88
Blocks511
Turnovers (Team)12 (0)13 (0)
Fouls1917
Off. Rebounds (Team)12 (5)14 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)37 (3)46 (1)
Field Goals31-9436-93
At-the-Rim FG10-2616-34
Midrange FG8-3610-27
2-Point FG18-6226-61
3-Point FG13-3210-32
Free Throws13-1413-18
Fast Break Pts115
2nd Chance Pts1610
Points in Paint2446
Pts off Turnovers1417
Bench Points5012
Biggest Lead219

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
20 San Antonio Spurs
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
DeMar DeRozan
#10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 29
36.6
18
56%
14
8
2
1
3
3
3
11
5-5
100%
5-13
38%
1-2
50%
LaMarcus Aldridge
#12 · C · 6'11" 260 · 33
35.6
6
20%
16
0
0
2
1
3
4
12
2-2
100%
2-14
14%
0-0
-
Bryn Forbes
#11 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 25
31.9
12
46%
1
3
1
0
0
4
0
1
2-2
100%
2-7
29%
2-5
40%
Dante Cunningham
#33 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 32
21.6
2
100%
4
1
1
1
1
2
1
3
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
Derrick White
#4 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24
16.0
0
0%
1
3
1
0
2
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-3
0%
0-0
-
Patty Mills
#8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 30
27.8
20
50%
4
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
0-0
-
4-10
40%
4-12
33%
Marco Belinelli
#18 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 33
27.6
8
31%
0
3
2
0
2
1
0
0
0-0
-
1-7
14%
2-6
33%
Davis Bertans
#42 · SF · 6'10" 210 · 26
26.4
19
86%
4
1
1
1
0
3
1
3
3-3
100%
2-3
67%
4-7
57%
Jakob Poeltl
#25 · C · 7'0" 260 · 23
12.4
3
30%
4
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
1-2
50%
1-4
25%
0-0
-
Quincy Pondexter
#3 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 31
4.2
0
0%
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
Rudy Gay
#22 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32
DND - Injury/Illness | Right Heel Soreness
Chimezie Metu
#7 · PF · 6'10" 219 · 22
DNP - Coach's Decision
Dejounte Murray
#5 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 22
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right ACL
Lonnie Walker IV
#1 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 20
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Medial Meniscus
Pau Gasol
#16 · C · 7'0" 250 · 38
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Foot Soreness
Drew Eubanks
#14 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 22
Inactive - G League Team | Two-Way
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
88
44%
49
19
8
5
12
19
12
37
13-14
93%
18-62
29%
13-32
41%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.