Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 3, 2015

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	15	Wizards	28%	93	92
	4	Spurs	72%	101	101

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
WAS	109.5	84	83.4
SAS	120.2	84	84.6

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+14

-6

SAS

+15

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.99 49.5%

SAS

1.13 56.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		92 0%	101 100%
Q4 - 0:21.0	SAS	Joseph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	92 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 0:22.0	WAS	MISS Beal 26' 3PT Jump Shot	92 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 0:31.0	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	92 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 0:32.0	SAS	MISS Green Free Throw 2 of 2	92 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 0:32.0	SAS	Green Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	92 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 0:33.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	92 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	92 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0	SAS	MISS Green Free Throw 2 of 2	92 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 0:34.0	SAS	MISS Green Free Throw 1 of 2	92 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 0:36.0	WAS	Wall 2' Layup (15 PTS) (Porter 3 AST)	92 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 0:39.0	SAS	Belinelli Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	90 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 0:39.0	SAS	Belinelli Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	90 0.1%	99 99.9%
Q4 - 0:50.0	WAS	Beal REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	90 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 0:50.0	WAS	Beal 1' Tip Shot (15 PTS)	90 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 0:53.0	WAS	MISS Butler 26' 3PT Jump Shot	88 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 0:56.0	WAS	Wizards Rebound	88 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 0:57.0	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Jump Shot	88 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 1:20	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	88 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 1:22	WAS	Joseph BLOCK (2 BLK)	88 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 1:43	WAS	Gortat REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	88 0.5%	98 99.5%
Q4 - 1:45	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	88 0.5%	98 99.5%
Q4 - 1:45	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	88 0.4%	98 99.6%
Q4 - 2:01	WAS	Wizards Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)	88 0.4%	98 99.6%
Q4 - 2:33	SAS	Diaw 2' Running Reverse Layup (14 PTS) (Ginobili 5 AST)	88 0.8%	98 99.2%
Q4 - 2:57	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	88 1.4%	96 98.6%
Q4 - 2:58	WAS	MISS Nene 15' Jump Shot	88 1.7%	96 98.3%
Q4 - 3:13	WAS	Wall REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	88 2.5%	96 97.5%
Q4 - 3:14	SAS	MISS Duncan 12' Jump Shot	88 2.1%	96 97.9%
Q4 - 3:34	WAS	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	88 2.5%	96 97.5%
Q4 - 3:44	SAS	Belinelli 1' Alley Oop Layup (10 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)	88 3.5%	96 96.5%
Q4 - 3:47	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	88 4.8%	94 95.2%
Q4 - 3:48	SAS	MISS Belinelli 24' 3PT Jump Shot	88 6.3%	94 93.7%
Q4 - 4:09	WAS	MISS Wall 25' 3PT Jump Shot	88 5.2%	94 94.8%
Q4 - 4:23	SAS	SPURS Rebound	88 4.6%	94 95.4%
Q4 - 4:23	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	88 6.8%	94 93.2%
Q4 - 4:23	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2	88 7.2%	93 92.8%
Q4 - 4:31	SAS	Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	88 6.5%	93 93.5%
Q4 - 4:32	WAS	MISS Beal 20' Jump Shot	88 7.3%	93 92.7%
Q4 - 4:48	SAS	Belinelli Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	88 9.5%	93 90.5%
Q4 - 4:48	SAS	Belinelli Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	88 9.9%	92 90.1%
Q4 - 4:59	SAS	Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	88 12.8%	91 87.2%
Q4 - 5:00	WAS	MISS Wall 16' Jump Shot	88 14.3%	91 85.7%
Q4 - 5:11	WAS	Seraphin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	88 19.4%	91 80.6%
Q4 - 5:12	SAS	MISS Joseph 8' Running Jump Shot	88 17.7%	91 82.3%
Q4 - 5:36	WAS	Beal 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS)	88 14.3%	91 85.7%
Q4 - 5:59	SAS	Belinelli 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)	85 8.1%	91 91.9%
Q4 - 6:03	SAS	SPURS Rebound	85 11.6%	89 88.4%
Q4 - 6:03	SAS	MISS Belinelli 3' Jump Shot	85 14.3%	89 85.7%
Q4 - 6:12	WAS	Nene Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	85 11.6%	89 88.4%
Q4 - 6:12	WAS	Nene Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	84 10.7%	89 89.3%
Q4 - 6:36	SAS	Green 2' Driving Reverse Layup (9 PTS)	83 9.2%	89 90.8%
Q4 - 7:00	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	83 11.5%	87 88.5%
Q4 - 7:01	WAS	MISS A. Miller 2' Running Layup	83 13.5%	87 86.5%
Q4 - 7:19	WAS	Nene REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	83 16.1%	87 83.9%
Q4 - 7:20	WAS	MISS Seraphin 6' Jump Shot	83 13.5%	87 86.5%
Q4 - 7:40	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	83 16.1%	87 83.9%
Q4 - 7:41	SAS	MISS Belinelli 5' Driving Bank Shot	83 14.9%	87 85.1%
Q4 - 7:51	SAS	Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	83 12.4%	87 87.6%
Q4 - 7:52	WAS	MISS Humphries 3' Layup	83 13.4%	87 86.6%
Q4 - 8:13	SAS	Mills 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Splitter 2 AST)	83 16.8%	87 83.2%
Q4 - 8:26	WAS	Humphries 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (A. Miller 4 AST)	83 25.1%	84 74.9%
Q4 - 8:40	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#11)	81 20.6%	84 79.4%
Q4 - 8:44	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	81 16.7%	84 83.3%
Q4 - 8:45	SAS	MISS Green Layup	81 19.4%	84 80.6%
Q4 - 9:05	WAS	Porter 2' Driving Layup (11 PTS) (A. Miller 3 AST)	81 17.4%	84 82.6%
Q4 - 9:11	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	79 14.4%	84 85.6%
Q4 - 9:14	WAS	Splitter BLOCK (1 BLK)	79 12.4%	84 87.6%
Q4 - 9:17	WAS	Seraphin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	79 14.4%	84 85.6%
Q4 - 9:19	WAS	MISS A. Miller 3' Jump Shot	79 12.4%	84 87.6%
Q4 - 9:20	WAS	A. Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	79 14.4%	84 85.6%
Q4 - 9:21	WAS	MISS A. Miller 6' Jump Shot	79 12.4%	84 87.6%
Q4 - 9:28	WAS	Porter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	79 14.3%	84 85.7%
Q4 - 9:29	WAS	MISS Butler 26' 3PT Jump Shot	79 12.4%	84 87.6%
Q4 - 9:34	WAS	Wizards Rebound	79 14.3%	84 85.7%
Q4 - 9:35	WAS	MISS Seraphin 16' Jump Shot	79 12.4%	84 87.6%
Q4 - 9:55	SAS	Diaw 1' Reverse Layup (12 PTS) (Green 1 AST)	79 14.3%	84 85.7%
Q4 - 10:10	SAS	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	79 17.8%	82 82.2%
Q4 - 10:11	WAS	MISS Humphries 14' Turnaround Jump Shot	79 18.8%	82 81.2%
Q4 - 10:36	SAS	Splitter Dunk (16 PTS) (Joseph 4 AST)	79 21.4%	82 78.6%
Q4 - 10:52	WAS	Seraphin 8' Turnaround Bank Hook Shot (9 PTS)	79 25.3%	80 74.7%
Q4 - 11:14	SAS	Diaw 17' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Splitter 1 AST)	77 21.7%	80 78.3%
Q4 - 11:32	SAS	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	77 25.4%	78 74.6%
Q4 - 11:32	WAS	MISS Porter 9' Jump Shot	77 26.7%	78 73.3%
Q4 - 11:48	WAS	A. Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	77 29.9%	78 70.1%
Q4 - 11:49	SAS	MISS Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot	77 28.5%	78 71.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS		77 25.4%	78 74.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS	Wizards Rebound	77 29.9%	78 70.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	WAS	MISS Butler 15' Jump Shot	77 26.7%	78 73.3%
Q3 - 0:03.0	WAS	Wizards Rebound	77 29.5%	78 70.5%
Q3 - 0:03.0	WAS	Joseph BLOCK (1 BLK)	77 26.7%	78 73.3%
Q3 - 0:11.0	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	77 29.5%	78 70.5%
Q3 - 0:12.0	SAS	MISS Belinelli 21' Fadeaway Jumper	77 28.2%	78 71.8%
Q3 - 0:36.0	SAS	Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	77 25.5%	78 74.5%
Q3 - 0:37.0	WAS	MISS Gortat Free Throw 2 of 2	77 26.0%	78 74.0%
Q3 - 0:37.0	WAS	MISS Gortat Free Throw 1 of 2	77 28.5%	78 71.5%
Q3 - 0:40.0	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)	77 29.5%	78 70.5%
Q3 - 0:45.0	WAS	Ginobili STEAL (1 STL)	77 25.5%	78 74.5%
Q3 - 1:05	SAS	Joseph 3' Layup (19 PTS)	77 29.2%	78 70.8%
Q3 - 1:27	WAS	Humphries 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wall 8 AST)	77 33.3%	76 66.7%
Q3 - 1:39	SAS	Splitter 2' Layup (14 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)	75 29.2%	76 70.8%
Q3 - 1:58	WAS	Beal 1' Driving Layup (10 PTS)	75 33.3%	74 66.7%
Q3 - 2:04	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	73 28.7%	74 71.3%
Q3 - 2:05	SAS	MISS Diaw 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup	73 27.5%	74 72.5%
Q3 - 2:32	WAS	Wizards Turnover: Shot Clock (T#6)	73 24.9%	74 75.1%
Q3 - 3:00	SAS	Belinelli 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)	73 28.8%	74 71.2%
Q3 - 3:19	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	73 32.1%	72 67.9%
Q3 - 3:20	WAS	MISS Gortat 15' Jump Shot	73 33.4%	72 66.6%
Q3 - 3:36	SAS	Diaw 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	73 36.4%	72 63.6%
Q3 - 3:50	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	73 40.2%	70 59.8%
Q3 - 3:51	WAS	MISS Beal 17' Jump Shot	73 41.6%	70 58.4%
Q3 - 4:18	SAS	Diaw 6' Jump Hook Shot (6 PTS)	73 44.1%	70 55.9%
Q3 - 4:34	WAS	Pierce Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	73 47.5%	68 52.5%
Q3 - 4:58	SAS	Diaw 1' Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Duncan 4 AST)	73 52.6%	68 47.4%
Q3 - 5:13	SAS	SPURS Rebound	73 54.6%	66 45.4%
Q3 - 5:13	SAS	MISS Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot	73 57.8%	66 42.2%
Q3 - 5:33	WAS	Wall 4' Driving Finger Roll Layup (13 PTS)	73 54.6%	66 45.4%
Q3 - 5:43	SAS	Mills Foul Turnover (P1.T9)	71 51.2%	66 48.8%
Q3 - 6:08	WAS	Gortat Dunk (12 PTS) (Wall 7 AST)	71 45.1%	66 54.9%
Q3 - 6:24	SAS	Ginobili Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)	69 41.8%	66 58.2%
Q3 - 6:29	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	69 37.5%	66 62.5%
Q3 - 6:30	WAS	MISS Nene 14' Jump Shot	69 38.8%	66 61.2%
Q3 - 6:45	WAS	Wall REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	69 41.9%	66 58.1%
Q3 - 6:46	SAS	MISS Duncan 6' Jump Shot	69 40.5%	66 59.5%
Q3 - 7:05	WAS	Nene 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Beal 3 AST)	69 36.7%	66 63.3%
Q3 - 7:20	WAS	Wizards Rebound	67 33.7%	66 66.3%
Q3 - 7:20	SAS	MISS Ginobili 17' Jump Shot	67 32.5%	66 67.5%
Q3 - 7:40	WAS	Pierce Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	67 29.9%	66 70.1%
Q3 - 7:40	WAS	Pierce Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	66 29.4%	66 70.6%
Q3 - 7:43	WAS	Gortat REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	65 27.2%	66 72.8%
Q3 - 7:44	SAS	MISS Green 4' Jump Shot	65 26.2%	66 73.8%
Q3 - 8:00	WAS	Gortat 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Beal 2 AST)	65 23.9%	66 76.1%
Q3 - 8:19	SAS	Duncan 2' Alley Oop Layup (4 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	63 21.6%	66 78.4%
Q3 - 8:33	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	63 23.7%	64 76.3%
Q3 - 8:34	WAS	MISS Beal Free Throw 2 of 2	63 24.2%	64 75.8%
Q3 - 8:34	WAS	Beal Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	63 26.1%	64 73.9%
Q3 - 8:38	WAS	Gortat REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	62 24.2%	64 75.8%
Q3 - 8:39	SAS	MISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot	62 23.2%	64 76.8%
Q3 - 8:45	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	62 21.1%	64 78.9%
Q3 - 8:46	WAS	MISS Pierce 25' 3PT Jump Shot	62 22.0%	64 78.0%
Q3 - 9:12	SAS	Ginobili 2' Layup (4 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)	62 23.6%	64 76.4%
Q3 - 9:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	62 26.3%	62 73.7%
Q3 - 9:17	SAS	MISS Joseph 3' Layup	62 28.3%	62 71.7%
Q3 - 9:24	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	62 26.3%	62 73.7%
Q3 - 9:25	WAS	MISS Beal 18' Jump Shot	62 27.2%	62 72.8%
Q3 - 9:42	SAS	Duncan Foul Turnover (P2.T7)	62 29.3%	62 70.7%
Q3 - 9:48	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	62 26.3%	62 73.7%
Q3 - 9:49	WAS	MISS Wall 25' 3PT Jump Shot	62 27.2%	62 72.8%
Q3 - 10:17	SAS	Splitter 1' Layup (12 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	62 28.6%	62 71.4%
Q3 - 10:41	WAS	Nene Dunk (8 PTS) (Wall 6 AST)	62 31.6%	60 68.4%
Q3 - 10:49	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	60 28.7%	60 71.3%
Q3 - 11:11	WAS	Gortat 13' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wall 5 AST)	60 25.4%	60 74.6%
Q3 - 11:39	SAS	Green 1' Layup (7 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	58 23.0%	60 77.0%
Q3 - 11:47	WAS	Nene Foul Turnover (P1.T4)	58 25.4%	58 74.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	WAS		58 28.2%	58 71.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS	Joseph 19' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	58 28.2%	58 71.8%
Q2 - 0:06.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	58 31.1%	56 68.9%
Q2 - 0:06.0	WAS	MISS Porter 24' 3PT Jump Shot	58 31.7%	56 68.3%
Q2 - 0:30.0	SAS	Ginobili 6' Driving Jump Shot (2 PTS)	58 33.1%	56 66.9%
Q2 - 0:45.0	WAS	Porter 21' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wall 4 AST)	58 36.9%	54 63.1%
Q2 - 0:51.0	SAS	Joseph 3' Layup (15 PTS)	56 33.2%	54 66.8%
Q2 - 0:56.0	SAS	Joseph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	56 36.9%	52 63.1%
Q2 - 0:57.0	WAS	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	56 37.6%	52 62.4%
Q2 - 1:06	WAS	Wall REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	56 38.6%	52 61.4%
Q2 - 1:07	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	56 38.1%	52 61.9%
Q2 - 1:24	WAS	Beal 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Wall 3 AST)	56 36.9%	52 63.1%
Q2 - 1:30	WAS	Gortat REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	53 30.0%	52 70.0%
Q2 - 1:31	SAS	MISS Duncan 3' Reverse Layup	53 29.6%	52 70.4%
Q2 - 1:44	WAS	Wizards Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	53 28.5%	52 71.5%
Q2 - 1:44	WAS	Wizards Rebound	53 30.0%	52 70.0%
Q2 - 1:44	WAS	MISS Gortat 29' 3PT Jump Shot	53 29.0%	52 71.0%
Q2 - 2:11	SAS	Splitter Dunk (10 PTS) (Joseph 3 AST)	53 30.1%	52 69.9%
Q2 - 2:26	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	53 32.9%	50 67.1%
Q2 - 2:27	SAS	MISS Green 28' 3PT Jump Shot	53 34.7%	50 65.3%
Q2 - 2:35	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	53 32.9%	50 67.1%
Q2 - 2:36	WAS	MISS Porter 25' 3PT Jump Shot	53 33.7%	50 66.3%
Q2 - 2:50	SAS	Green Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T5)	53 35.6%	50 64.4%
Q2 - 3:03	WAS	Green STEAL (1 STL)	53 32.0%	50 68.0%
Q2 - 3:15	SAS	Joseph Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)	53 35.1%	50 64.9%
Q2 - 3:29	WAS	Porter 18' Pullup Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Nene 1 AST)	53 40.2%	47 59.8%
Q2 - 3:53	SAS	Splitter 6' Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Joseph 2 AST)	51 37.9%	47 62.1%
Q2 - 4:05	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	51 39.3%	45 60.7%
Q2 - 4:06	SAS	MISS Belinelli 24' 3PT Jump Shot	51 41.3%	45 58.7%
Q2 - 4:27	SAS	Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	51 39.4%	45 60.6%
Q2 - 4:29	WAS	MISS Nene 15' Jump Shot	51 40.3%	45 59.7%
Q2 - 4:52	WAS	Seraphin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	51 42.3%	45 57.7%
Q2 - 4:53	SAS	MISS Baynes 12' Jump Bank Shot	51 41.4%	45 58.6%
Q2 - 4:57	SAS	SPURS Rebound	51 39.4%	45 60.6%
Q2 - 4:57	SAS	MISS Anderson 1' Layup	51 41.5%	45 58.5%
Q2 - 5:03	WAS	Anderson STEAL (1 STL)	51 38.9%	45 61.1%
Q2 - 5:19	SAS	Mills 9' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	51 41.6%	45 58.4%
Q2 - 5:37	SAS	Mills REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	51 44.4%	43 55.6%
Q2 - 5:38	SAS	MISS Mills 24' 3PT Jump Shot	51 46.3%	43 53.7%
Q2 - 5:47	SAS	SPURS Rebound	51 44.4%	43 55.6%
Q2 - 5:48	SAS	MISS Mills 26' 3PT Jump Shot	51 46.3%	43 53.7%
Q2 - 6:11	SAS	Anderson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	51 43.4%	43 56.6%
Q2 - 6:12	WAS	MISS Seraphin 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	51 44.4%	43 55.6%
Q2 - 6:36	SAS	Baynes 5' Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Mills 1 AST)	51 46.7%	43 53.3%
Q2 - 6:50	WAS	Seraphin Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	51 48.9%	41 51.1%
Q2 - 6:56	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	48 44.0%	41 56.0%
Q2 - 6:58	SAS	MISS Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot	48 43.1%	41 56.9%
Q2 - 7:12	WAS	Porter Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	48 40.2%	41 59.8%
Q2 - 7:12	WAS	MISS Porter Free Throw 1 of 2	47 39.7%	41 60.3%
Q2 - 7:16	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	47 40.4%	41 59.6%
Q2 - 7:24	WAS	Porter 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (A. Miller 2 AST)	47 37.7%	41 62.3%
Q2 - 7:43	SAS	Diaw 3' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Anderson 3 AST)	45 35.5%	41 64.5%
Q2 - 7:56	SAS	SPURS Rebound	45 37.7%	39 62.3%
Q2 - 7:57	SAS	MISS Ginobili 2' Layup	45 39.7%	39 60.3%
Q2 - 8:10	WAS	Seraphin 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Porter 1 AST)	45 37.0%	39 63.0%
Q2 - 8:33	SAS	Joseph Free Throw 3 of 3 (10 PTS)	43 34.8%	39 65.2%
Q2 - 8:33	SAS	MISS Joseph Free Throw 2 of 3	43 35.3%	38 64.7%
Q2 - 8:33	SAS	Joseph Free Throw 1 of 3 (9 PTS)	43 33.5%	38 66.5%
Q2 - 8:57	WAS	Humphries 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)	43 37.1%	37 62.9%
Q2 - 9:15	SAS	Joseph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	41 34.1%	37 65.9%
Q2 - 9:15	SAS	Joseph Tip Shot (8 PTS)	41 34.1%	37 65.9%
Q2 - 9:16	SAS	MISS Duncan 12' Turnaround Bank Shot	41 37.9%	35 62.1%
Q2 - 9:35	SAS	SPURS Rebound	41 36.1%	35 63.9%
Q2 - 9:38	WAS	MISS Humphries 17' Jump Shot	41 36.9%	35 63.1%
Q2 - 10:03	SAS	Duncan 2' Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Belinelli 3 AST)	41 38.8%	35 61.2%
Q2 - 10:25	WAS	Humphries 14' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS)	41 40.7%	33 59.3%
Q2 - 10:40	SAS	Joseph 3' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	39 38.8%	33 61.2%
Q2 - 10:56	WAS	Seraphin 2' Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (A. Miller 1 AST)	39 40.7%	31 59.3%
Q2 - 11:05	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	37 38.0%	31 62.0%
Q2 - 11:07	SAS	MISS Duncan 12' Turnaround Bank Shot	37 37.4%	31 62.6%
Q2 - 11:25	WAS	Porter 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Seraphin 1 AST)	37 35.8%	31 64.2%
Q2 - 11:31	WAS	Seraphin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 33.7%	31 66.3%
Q2 - 11:32	WAS	MISS Butler 18' Jump Shot	35 32.1%	31 67.9%
Q2 - 11:41	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	35 33.7%	31 66.3%
Q2 - 11:42	WAS	MISS Butler 17' Jump Shot	35 32.1%	31 67.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		35 33.7%	31 66.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	35 31.5%	31 68.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	WAS	MISS Wall Free Throw 2 of 2	35 31.8%	31 68.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	WAS	Wall Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	35 33.2%	31 66.8%
Q1 - 0:13.0	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	34 30.8%	31 69.2%
Q1 - 0:14.0	SAS	MISS Belinelli 2' Layup	34 30.4%	31 69.6%
Q1 - 0:33.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	34 29.4%	31 70.6%
Q1 - 0:34.0	WAS	MISS Wall 20' Jump Shot	34 29.8%	31 70.2%
Q1 - 0:41.0	SAS	Green 18' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	34 30.9%	31 69.1%
Q1 - 0:53.0	WAS	Gortat 3' Running Layup (6 PTS)	34 33.5%	29 66.5%
Q1 - 1:05	WAS	Wizards Rebound	32 30.6%	29 69.4%
Q1 - 1:06	WAS	MISS Butler 6' Running Jump Shot	32 29.6%	29 70.4%
Q1 - 1:10	SAS	Belinelli Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	32 30.6%	29 69.4%
Q1 - 1:27	WAS	Humphries 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wall 2 AST)	32 29.1%	29 70.9%
Q1 - 1:42	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 26.8%	29 73.2%
Q1 - 1:43	SAS	MISS Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot	30 26.4%	29 73.6%
Q1 - 1:52	SAS	Baynes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	30 25.5%	29 74.5%
Q1 - 1:53	WAS	MISS Gortat 15' Turnaround Jump Shot	30 25.9%	29 74.1%
Q1 - 2:09	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 27.0%	29 73.0%
Q1 - 2:10	SAS	MISS Baynes 17' Jump Shot	30 26.4%	29 73.6%
Q1 - 2:30	SAS	Baynes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 25.3%	29 74.7%
Q1 - 2:31	WAS	MISS Wall 12' Floating Jump Shot	30 25.8%	29 74.2%
Q1 - 2:42	WAS	Humphries REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	30 26.9%	29 73.1%
Q1 - 2:43	SAS	MISS Anderson 19' Jump Shot	30 26.4%	29 73.6%
Q1 - 2:55	WAS	Wall 13' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	30 25.3%	29 74.7%
Q1 - 3:13	SAS	Baynes Dunk (2 PTS) (Anderson 2 AST)	28 23.4%	29 76.6%
Q1 - 3:26	WAS	Wall 1' Driving Layup (8 PTS)	28 24.9%	27 75.1%
Q1 - 3:34	WAS	Butler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 23.5%	27 76.5%
Q1 - 3:35	SAS	MISS Baynes 8' Jump Shot	26 22.9%	27 77.1%
Q1 - 3:49	WAS	Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wall 1 AST)	26 21.7%	27 78.3%
Q1 - 4:06	SAS	Mills 1' Layup (10 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	23 18.9%	27 81.1%
Q1 - 4:16	WAS	Beal 19' Pullup Jump Shot (4 PTS)	23 20.1%	25 79.9%
Q1 - 4:30	SAS	Mills 21' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Anderson 1 AST)	21 18.9%	25 81.1%
Q1 - 4:47	SAS	Baynes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 20.1%	23 79.9%
Q1 - 4:49	WAS	MISS Pierce 18' Jump Shot	21 20.6%	23 79.4%
Q1 - 5:03	SAS	Anderson 14' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	21 21.6%	23 78.4%
Q1 - 5:16	WAS	Gortat 2' Layup (4 PTS)	21 22.9%	21 77.1%
Q1 - 5:17	WAS	Gortat REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	19 21.6%	21 78.4%
Q1 - 5:18	WAS	MISS Nene 1' Layup	19 20.5%	21 79.5%
Q1 - 5:45	SAS	Mills 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)	19 21.6%	21 78.4%
Q1 - 5:59	WAS	Wall 1' Layup (6 PTS)	19 24.4%	18 75.6%
Q1 - 6:04	SAS	Diaw Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	17 22.8%	18 77.2%
Q1 - 6:12	WAS	Pierce 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gortat 1 AST)	17 21.3%	18 78.7%
Q1 - 6:29	SAS	Mills 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	14 18.9%	18 81.1%
Q1 - 6:34	SAS	Mills REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	14 21.3%	15 78.7%
Q1 - 6:35	SAS	MISS Splitter Layup	14 22.3%	15 77.7%
Q1 - 6:58	WAS	Gortat 3' Layup (2 PTS) (Pierce 1 AST)	14 21.3%	15 78.7%
Q1 - 7:09	SAS	Splitter Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	12 20.0%	15 80.0%
Q1 - 7:09	SAS	Splitter Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	12 20.3%	14 79.7%
Q1 - 7:27	WAS	Nene 2' Layup (6 PTS)	12 21.1%	13 78.9%
Q1 - 7:34	SAS	Splitter Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	10 20.0%	13 80.0%
Q1 - 7:50	WAS	Beal 20' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	10 18.6%	13 81.4%
Q1 - 8:15	SAS	Green 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	8 17.5%	13 82.5%
Q1 - 8:26	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 19.7%	10 80.3%
Q1 - 8:26	WAS	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	8 20.1%	10 79.9%
Q1 - 8:43	SAS	Joseph 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Belinelli 2 AST)	8 21.1%	10 78.9%
Q1 - 9:02	WAS	Nene 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Beal 1 AST)	8 22.1%	8 77.9%
Q1 - 9:14	SAS	Splitter 5' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Belinelli 1 AST)	6 20.9%	8 79.1%
Q1 - 9:38	WAS	Wall 19' Pullup Jump Shot (4 PTS)	6 22.1%	6 77.9%
Q1 - 9:44	SAS	Splitter 10' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS)	4 20.9%	6 79.1%
Q1 - 10:04	WAS	Wall 16' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 22.0%	4 78.0%
Q1 - 10:26	SAS	Joseph 18' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 20.9%	4 79.1%
Q1 - 10:51	SAS	Joseph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 22.1%	2 77.9%
Q1 - 10:52	WAS	MISS Pierce 27' 3PT Jump Shot	2 22.5%	2 77.5%
Q1 - 11:09	WAS	Pierce REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 23.1%	2 76.9%
Q1 - 11:10	SAS	MISS Belinelli 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot	2 22.7%	2 77.3%
Q1 - 11:23	WAS	Nene 17' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 21.9%	2 78.1%
Q1 - 11:43	SAS	Belinelli 23' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Joseph 1 AST)	0 20.6%	2 79.4%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Gortat: Tip to Joseph	0 21.9%	0 78.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.99 49.5%

SAS

1.13 56.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

65%

SAS

66%

Midrange

WAS

47%

SAS

59%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

6.0

29%

43%

SAS

6.0

25%

38%

Free Throws

WAS

62%

SAS

61%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Wall	15	54%	7.5 / 14
B. Beal	15	58%	7.5 / 13
M. Gortat	12	55%	6.0 / 11
Nene	12	60%	6.0 / 10
O. Porter Jr.	11	61%	5.5 / 9
K. Humphries	10	63%	5.0 / 8
K. Seraphin	9	56%	4.5 / 8
P. Pierce	5	50%	2.5 / 5
R. Butler	3	21%	1.5 / 7
A. Miller	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Joseph	19	86%	9.5 / 11
T. Splitter	16	89%	8.0 / 9
P. Mills	15	94%	7.5 / 8
B. Diaw	14	88%	7.0 / 8
M. Belinelli	12	46%	6.0 / 13
D. Green	10	45%	5.0 / 11
M. Ginobili	5	28%	2.5 / 9
T. Duncan	4	22%	2.0 / 9
A. Baynes	4	40%	2.0 / 5
K. Anderson	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+14

-6

SAS

+15

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.99 49.5%

SAS

1.13 56.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	103.9 108.5	WAS 109.5 SAS 120.2 +10.7
Pace	93.6 93.9	WAS 83.4 SAS 84.6 +1.2
Avg. Poss. Time	15.3 15.7	WAS 17.3 SAS 17.0 +0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.9% 51.7%	WAS 51.2% SAS 57.7% +6.5%
TO %	15.2% 14.2%	WAS 9.3% +2.0% SAS 11.3%
ORB %	25.0% 23.4%	WAS 23.7% SAS 29.0% +5.3%
FTrt	25.9 25.6	WAS 15.9 SAS 23.1 +7.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	62.7% 62.3%	WAS 57.5% SAS 62.8% +5.3%
STL %	7.7% 8.5%	WAS 7.1% +2.3% SAS 4.8%
BLK %	7.6% 8.4%	WAS 9.7% +2.3% SAS 7.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.8% 54.0%	WAS 49.5% SAS 56.7% +7.2%
Rim FG%	61.2% 59.6%	WAS 65.2% SAS 65.7% +0.5%
Mid FG%	39.6% 42.1%	WAS 46.7% SAS 59.3% +12.6%
3P %	36.0% 36.7%	WAS 28.6% +3.6% SAS 25.0%
FT %	74.2% 78.0%	WAS 61.5% +0.4% SAS 61.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	34.0% 35.3%	WAS 28.0% SAS 44.9% +16.8%
Mid Att. %	45.6% 37.8%	WAS 54.9% SAS 34.6% +20.3%
3P Att. %	20.3% 26.9%	WAS 17.1% SAS 20.5% +3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	SAS
Possessions	84	84
Possession Minutes	24.2	23.8
Points	92	101
Rebounds	31	38
Assists	23	27
Steals	6	4
Blocks	6	5
Turnovers (Team)	6 (3)	10 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (5)	9 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	22 (2)	29 (3)
Field Goals	40-82	43-78
At-the-Rim FG	15-23	23-35
Midrange FG	21-45	16-27
2-Point FG	36-68	39-62
3-Point FG	4-14	4-16
Free Throws	8-13	11-18
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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15 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
John Wall G · 6'4" 210 · 24	35.7	15	54%	3	8	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	7-11	64%	0-2	0%
Bradley Beal G · 6'4" 207 · 22	33.4	15	58%	1	3	0	0	1	3	1	0	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Marcin Gortat C · 6'11" 240 · 31	32.3	12	55%	5	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	0-2	0%	6-9	67%	0-1	0%
Nene F · 6'11" 250 · 32	25.9	12	60%	1	1	2	1	2	5	1	0	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Paul Pierce F · 6'7" 235 · 37	16.8	5	50%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Otto Porter Jr. F · 6'8" 198 · 22	28.6	11	61%	1	3	0	1	0	2	1	0	1-2	50%	5-6	83%	0-2	0%
Kris Humphries F · 6'9" 235 · 30	20.2	10	63%	8	0	1	0	0	1	1	7	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Rasual Butler F · 6'7" 215 · 36	19.2	3	21%	5	1	0	2	1	1	1	4	0-0	-	0-4	0%	1-3	33%
Kevin Seraphin F-C · 6'10" 278 · 25	15.7	9	56%	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	2	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 39	12.3	0	0%	2	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Martell Webster F-G · 6'7" 230 · 28
DeJuan Blair C-F · 6'7" 270 · 26
Garrett Temple G-F · 6'5" 195 · 29
Drew Gooden #90 · F · 6'10" 250 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Glen Rice #14 · G-F · 6'6" 206 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	50%	31	23	6	6	6	0	9	22	8-13	62%	36-68	53%	4-14	29%

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15 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
John Wall G · 6'4" 210 · 24	35.7	15	54%	3	8	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	7-11	64%	0-2	0%
Bradley Beal G · 6'4" 207 · 22	33.4	15	58%	1	3	0	0	1	3	1	0	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Marcin Gortat C · 6'11" 240 · 31	32.3	12	55%	5	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	0-2	0%	6-9	67%	0-1	0%
Nene F · 6'11" 250 · 32	25.9	12	60%	1	1	2	1	2	5	1	0	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Paul Pierce F · 6'7" 235 · 37	16.8	5	50%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Otto Porter Jr. F · 6'8" 198 · 22	28.6	11	61%	1	3	0	1	0	2	1	0	1-2	50%	5-6	83%	0-2	0%
Kris Humphries F · 6'9" 235 · 30	20.2	10	63%	8	0	1	0	0	1	1	7	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Rasual Butler F · 6'7" 215 · 36	19.2	3	21%	5	1	0	2	1	1	1	4	0-0	-	0-4	0%	1-3	33%
Kevin Seraphin F-C · 6'10" 278 · 25	15.7	9	56%	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	2	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 39	12.3	0	0%	2	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Martell Webster F-G · 6'7" 230 · 28
DeJuan Blair C-F · 6'7" 270 · 26
Garrett Temple G-F · 6'5" 195 · 29
Drew Gooden #90 · F · 6'10" 250 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Glen Rice #14 · G-F · 6'6" 206 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	50%	31	23	6	6	6	0	9	22	8-13	62%	36-68	53%	4-14	29%

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4 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Danny Green G · 6'6" 215 · 28	34.7	10	45%	6	1	1	0	1	1	3	3	1-4	25%	3-5	60%	1-4	25%
Cory Joseph G · 6'2" 200 · 23	32.7	19	86%	4	4	0	2	0	2	1	3	3-4	75%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 39	31.4	4	22%	9	4	1	2	2	2	3	6	0-2	0%	2-8	25%	0-0	-
Tiago Splitter C · 6'11" 245 · 30	27.6	16	89%	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	7-8	88%	0-0	-
Marco Belinelli F · 6'5" 210 · 29	25.8	12	46%	5	3	0	0	1	1	0	5	4-4	100%	4-8	50%	0-3	0%
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 37	27.9	5	28%	3	5	1	0	3	3	0	3	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-4	0%
Boris Diaw C-F · 6'8" 250 · 33	25.0	14	88%	2	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	7-8	88%	0-0	-
Patty Mills G · 6'0" 185 · 26	15.3	15	94%	2	1	0	0	1	5	2	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-5	60%
Kyle Anderson F-G · 6'9" 230 · 21	9.4	2	33%	1	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Aron Baynes C · 6'10" 260 · 28	8.2	4	40%	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 35	2.1	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jeff Ayres F-C · 6'9" 250 · 28
Austin Daye F · 6'11" 220 · 27
Tony Parker #9 · G · 6'2" 185 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Kawhi Leonard #2 · F · 6'7" 225 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	57%	38	27	4	5	10	0	9	29	11-18	61%	39-62	63%	4-16	25%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE