| ORTG | #Poss | Pace | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA | 108.6 | 93 | 95.9 |
 LAL | 102.2 | 93 | 90.3 |
Scoring Opportunities
MIA
81
+9
-12
90
LAL
76
+15
-17
91
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
MIA
1.12 56.1%
LAL
1.04 52.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS
Win Probability
Scoring Margin
Play-by-Play
| Score / WinProb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clock | Team | Event | MIA | LAL |
| Q4 - 0:00.0 | MIA | 101 100% | 95 0% | |
| Q4 - 0:13.0 | MIA | Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5) | 101 99.9% | 95 0.1% |
| Q4 - 0:16.0 | LAL | MISS Young 28' 3PT Jump Shot | 101 99.9% | 95 0.1% |
| Q4 - 0:21.0 | MIA | MISS James Free Throw 2 of 2 | 101 99.7% | 95 0.3% |
| Q4 - 0:21.0 | MIA | James Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS) | 101 99.8% | 95 0.2% |
| Q4 - 0:26.0 | MIA | James Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS) | 100 99.9% | 92 0.1% |
| Q4 - 0:26.0 | MIA | James Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS) | 99 99.9% | 92 0.1% |
| Q4 - 0:30.0 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8) | 98 99.8% | 92 0.2% |
| Q4 - 0:31.0 | LAL | MISS Farmar 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 98 99.7% | 92 0.3% |
| Q4 - 0:39.0 | LAL | LAKERS Rebound | 98 99.1% | 92 0.9% |
| Q4 - 0:40.0 | LAL | MISS Meeks 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 98 99.5% | 92 0.5% |
| Q4 - 0:52.0 | MIA | Wade 2' Reverse Layup (23 PTS) (James 4 AST) | 98 98.7% | 92 1.3% |
| Q4 - 1:07 | MIA | Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 96 96.9% | 92 3.1% |
| Q4 - 1:09 | MIA | MISS Chalmers 11' Floating Jump Shot | 96 95.1% | 92 4.9% |
| Q4 - 1:25 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5) | 96 96.3% | 92 3.7% |
| Q4 - 1:26 | LAL | MISS Meeks Free Throw 2 of 2 | 96 95.9% | 92 4.1% |
| Q4 - 1:26 | LAL | Meeks Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS) | 96 94.0% | 92 6.0% |
| Q4 - 1:27 | LAL | Meeks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 96 95.9% | 91 4.1% |
| Q4 - 1:28 | MIA | MISS James 21' Jump Shot | 96 96.6% | 91 3.4% |
| Q4 - 1:51 | LAL | Young 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (20 PTS) | 96 96.9% | 91 3.1% |
| Q4 - 2:17 | MIA | Wade 2' Driving Layup (21 PTS) (Chalmers 7 AST) | 96 98.7% | 88 1.3% |
| Q4 - 2:35 | LAL | Farmar Traveling Turnover (P4.T17) | 94 98.2% | 88 1.8% |
| Q4 - 2:39 | MIA | Gasol STEAL (1 STL) | 94 96.7% | 88 3.3% |
| Q4 - 3:06 | LAL | W. Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) | 94 97.6% | 88 2.4% |
| Q4 - 3:24 | MIA | Wade 3' Driving Layup (19 PTS) | 94 98.9% | 85 1.1% |
| Q4 - 3:48 | LAL | Gasol 12' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Farmar 2 AST) | 92 97.5% | 85 2.5% |
| Q4 - 4:04 | MIA | Cole 8' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Wade 7 AST) | 92 98.3% | 83 1.7% |
| Q4 - 4:09 | LAL | W. Johnson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T16) | 90 97.6% | 83 2.4% |
| Q4 - 4:36 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9) | 90 96.5% | 83 3.5% |
| Q4 - 4:37 | MIA | MISS James 17' Jump Shot | 90 96.9% | 83 3.1% |
| Q4 - 4:58 | LAL | Henry Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T15) | 90 97.7% | 83 2.3% |
| Q4 - 5:09 | LAL | Young REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 90 95.3% | 83 4.7% |
| Q4 - 5:11 | MIA | MISS James Free Throw 1 of 1 | 90 95.5% | 83 4.5% |
| Q4 - 5:24 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7) | 88 93.8% | 83 6.2% |
| Q4 - 5:25 | LAL | MISS Young 17' Jump Shot | 88 93.1% | 83 6.9% |
| Q4 - 5:38 | LAL | Henry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3) | 88 91.3% | 83 8.7% |
| Q4 - 5:41 | MIA | MISS Cole 4' Layup | 88 92.2% | 83 7.8% |
| Q4 - 5:59 | MIA | Cole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 88 93.9% | 83 6.1% |
| Q4 - 6:00 | LAL | MISS Farmar 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 88 93.2% | 83 6.8% |
| Q4 - 6:19 | MIA | Cole 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wade 6 AST) | 88 90.6% | 83 9.4% |
| Q4 - 6:25 | MIA | Lewis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 85 84.5% | 83 15.5% |
| Q4 - 6:26 | MIA | MISS Haslem 17' Jump Shot | 85 81.1% | 83 18.9% |
| Q4 - 6:40 | MIA | Cole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 85 84.5% | 83 15.5% |
| Q4 - 6:42 | LAL | MISS Young 19' Step Back Jump Shot | 85 83.0% | 83 17.0% |
| Q4 - 7:01 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6) | 85 80.1% | 83 19.9% |
| Q4 - 7:02 | MIA | MISS Lewis 3PT Jump Shot | 85 81.5% | 83 18.5% |
| Q4 - 7:15 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 85 84.5% | 83 15.5% |
| Q4 - 7:17 | LAL | MISS Hill 8' Hook Shot | 85 83.2% | 83 16.8% |
| Q4 - 7:30 | LAL | Henry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 85 80.0% | 83 20.0% |
| Q4 - 7:31 | MIA | MISS Wade 20' Jump Shot | 85 81.5% | 83 18.5% |
| Q4 - 7:41 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 85 84.5% | 83 15.5% |
| Q4 - 7:42 | LAL | MISS Hill 19' Jump Shot | 85 83.2% | 83 16.8% |
| Q4 - 8:00 | MIA | Wade 3' Layup (17 PTS) (Cole 3 AST) | 85 80.0% | 83 20.0% |
| Q4 - 8:25 | LAL | Young 7' Running Jump Shot (17 PTS) | 83 75.5% | 83 24.5% |
| Q4 - 8:35 | MIA | Cole 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Allen 2 AST) | 83 80.0% | 81 20.0% |
| Q4 - 8:38 | LAL | Henry Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T14) | 81 75.5% | 81 24.5% |
| Q4 - 8:51 | LAL | Farmar REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 81 70.4% | 81 29.6% |
| Q4 - 8:53 | MIA | Hill BLOCK (3 BLK) | 81 72.0% | 81 28.0% |
| Q4 - 9:06 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 81 75.6% | 81 24.4% |
| Q4 - 9:09 | LAL | MISS Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 | 81 75.0% | 81 25.0% |
| Q4 - 9:09 | LAL | MISS Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 | 81 72.3% | 81 27.7% |
| Q4 - 9:21 | MIA | Haslem 12' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 5 AST) | 81 70.9% | 81 29.1% |
| Q4 - 9:40 | LAL | Farmar Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13) | 79 65.6% | 81 34.4% |
| Q4 - 9:57 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5) | 79 60.0% | 81 40.0% |
| Q4 - 9:57 | MIA | MISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 | 79 60.8% | 81 39.2% |
| Q4 - 9:57 | MIA | MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 | 79 64.4% | 81 35.6% |
| Q4 - 10:17 | LAL | Henry 2' Driving Layup (14 PTS) | 79 66.5% | 81 33.5% |
| Q4 - 10:23 | MIA | Haslem Foul Turnover (P1.T11) | 79 71.3% | 79 28.7% |
| Q4 - 10:30 | LAL | Kelly Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 79 75.8% | 79 24.2% |
| Q4 - 10:30 | LAL | MISS Kelly Free Throw 1 of 2 | 79 76.9% | 78 23.1% |
| Q4 - 10:34 | LAL | Farmar REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 79 75.7% | 78 24.3% |
| Q4 - 10:35 | MIA | MISS Allen 3PT Jump Shot | 79 77.0% | 78 23.0% |
| Q4 - 10:58 | LAL | Henry 21' Jump Shot (12 PTS) | 79 79.7% | 78 20.3% |
| Q4 - 11:27 | MIA | Allen 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Cole 2 AST) | 79 82.5% | 76 17.5% |
| Q4 - 11:52 | LAL | Henry 3' Driving Dunk (10 PTS) | 76 75.5% | 76 24.5% |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | 76 79.2% | 74 20.8% | |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 76 82.6% | 74 17.4% |
| Q3 - 0:01.0 | MIA | MISS James 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 76 80.4% | 74 19.6% |
| Q3 - 0:08.0 | LAL | Young 26' 3PT Fadeaway Jumper (15 PTS) | 76 82.5% | 74 17.5% |
| Q3 - 0:29.0 | LAL | LAKERS Rebound | 76 87.7% | 71 12.3% |
| Q3 - 0:30.0 | MIA | MISS Lewis 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 76 88.4% | 71 11.6% |
| Q3 - 0:47.0 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 76 89.7% | 71 10.3% |
| Q3 - 0:49.0 | LAL | MISS Henry Free Throw 2 of 2 | 76 89.5% | 71 10.5% |
| Q3 - 0:49.0 | LAL | MISS Henry Free Throw 1 of 2 | 76 88.3% | 71 11.7% |
| Q3 - 0:49.0 | MIA | Henry STEAL (2 STL) | 76 87.7% | 71 12.3% |
| Q3 - 0:49.0 | LAL | Henry Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS) | 76 89.7% | 71 10.3% |
| Q3 - 0:49.0 | LAL | Henry Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS) | 76 90.3% | 70 9.7% |
| Q3 - 1:02 | LAL | Kelly REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 76 91.2% | 69 8.8% |
| Q3 - 1:03 | MIA | MISS Cole 16' Jump Shot | 76 91.6% | 69 8.4% |
| Q3 - 1:16 | LAL | Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS) | 76 92.6% | 69 7.4% |
| Q3 - 1:16 | LAL | Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS) | 76 93.0% | 68 7.0% |
| Q3 - 1:31 | MIA | Lewis 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Haslem 1 AST) | 76 93.9% | 67 6.1% |
| Q3 - 1:41 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 73 91.2% | 67 8.8% |
| Q3 - 1:43 | LAL | MISS Henry 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 73 90.7% | 67 9.3% |
| Q3 - 1:54 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4) | 73 89.5% | 67 10.5% |
| Q3 - 1:55 | MIA | MISS James 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 73 90.1% | 67 9.9% |
| Q3 - 2:29 | LAL | Henry Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T12) | 73 90.8% | 67 9.2% |
| Q3 - 2:35 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3) | 73 89.0% | 67 11.0% |
| Q3 - 2:36 | MIA | MISS Chalmers 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 73 89.6% | 67 10.4% |
| Q3 - 3:00 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7) | 73 90.8% | 67 9.2% |
| Q3 - 3:02 | LAL | MISS Henry Free Throw 2 of 2 | 73 90.4% | 67 9.6% |
| Q3 - 3:02 | LAL | Henry Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS) | 73 89.5% | 67 10.5% |
| Q3 - 3:03 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2) | 73 90.5% | 66 9.5% |
| Q3 - 3:04 | LAL | MISS Young 18' Jump Shot | 73 91.5% | 66 8.5% |
| Q3 - 3:19 | MIA | Allen 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Chalmers 6 AST) | 73 90.5% | 66 9.5% |
| Q3 - 3:40 | LAL | Hill Foul Turnover (P1.T11) | 70 87.1% | 66 12.9% |
| Q3 - 3:56 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6) | 70 84.7% | 66 15.3% |
| Q3 - 3:56 | MIA | Bosh 2' Tip Shot (23 PTS) | 70 84.7% | 66 15.3% |
| Q3 - 3:58 | MIA | MISS Wade 3' Layup | 68 80.4% | 66 19.6% |
| Q3 - 4:21 | LAL | Young 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS) | 68 82.6% | 66 17.4% |
| Q3 - 4:36 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6) | 68 84.4% | 64 15.6% |
| Q3 - 4:36 | MIA | Bosh 1' Tip Shot (21 PTS) | 68 84.4% | 64 15.6% |
| Q3 - 4:39 | MIA | MISS James 17' Step Back Jump Shot | 66 80.4% | 64 19.6% |
| Q3 - 4:59 | LAL | Young Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS) | 66 82.6% | 64 17.4% |
| Q3 - 5:21 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 66 88.1% | 60 11.9% |
| Q3 - 5:21 | MIA | Wade 2' Tip Shot (15 PTS) | 66 88.1% | 60 11.9% |
| Q3 - 5:23 | MIA | MISS Battier 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 64 85.0% | 60 15.0% |
| Q3 - 5:36 | LAL | Young Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS) | 64 86.6% | 60 13.4% |
| Q3 - 5:55 | MIA | James 1' Slam Dunk (14 PTS) (Wade 4 AST) | 64 89.8% | 57 10.2% |
| Q3 - 5:59 | MIA | Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 62 88.4% | 57 11.6% |
| Q3 - 6:00 | LAL | MISS Farmar 3' Layup | 62 87.8% | 57 12.2% |
| Q3 - 6:01 | LAL | Farmar REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 62 86.3% | 57 13.7% |
| Q3 - 6:03 | LAL | MISS Gasol 3' Jump Shot | 62 87.7% | 57 12.3% |
| Q3 - 6:09 | MIA | Meeks STEAL (2 STL) | 62 86.3% | 57 13.7% |
| Q3 - 6:17 | MIA | Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 62 88.3% | 57 11.7% |
| Q3 - 6:18 | LAL | MISS Gasol 15' Jump Shot | 62 87.7% | 57 12.3% |
| Q3 - 6:27 | MIA | Wade 2' Driving Layup (13 PTS) (Chalmers 5 AST) | 62 86.3% | 57 13.7% |
| Q3 - 6:31 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6) | 60 84.6% | 57 15.4% |
| Q3 - 6:33 | LAL | MISS Gasol 2' Layup | 60 83.9% | 57 16.1% |
| Q3 - 6:48 | MIA | Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS) | 60 82.1% | 57 17.9% |
| Q3 - 6:48 | MIA | Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS) | 59 81.7% | 57 18.3% |
| Q3 - 7:07 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5) | 58 79.8% | 57 20.2% |
| Q3 - 7:08 | LAL | MISS W. Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 58 79.0% | 57 21.0% |
| Q3 - 7:25 | MIA | Chalmers 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Battier 1 AST) | 58 77.0% | 57 23.0% |
| Q3 - 7:46 | LAL | Meeks 27' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Gasol 3 AST) | 55 71.4% | 57 28.6% |
| Q3 - 7:56 | LAL | Shaw. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 55 77.0% | 54 23.0% |
| Q3 - 7:58 | MIA | MISS Chalmers 3' Jump Shot | 55 77.9% | 54 22.1% |
| Q3 - 8:16 | LAL | Meeks 27' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Gasol 2 AST) | 55 80.1% | 54 19.9% |
| Q3 - 8:27 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8) | 55 84.1% | 51 15.9% |
| Q3 - 8:32 | MIA | MISS Wade 15' Fadeaway Jumper | 55 84.8% | 51 15.2% |
| Q3 - 8:52 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7) | 55 86.3% | 51 13.7% |
| Q3 - 8:52 | LAL | Gasol 2' Putback Layup (11 PTS) | 55 86.3% | 51 13.7% |
| Q3 - 8:53 | LAL | MISS Gasol 3' Jump Shot | 55 89.0% | 49 11.0% |
| Q3 - 9:07 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7) | 55 87.8% | 49 12.2% |
| Q3 - 9:08 | MIA | MISS Battier 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 55 88.3% | 49 11.7% |
| Q3 - 9:17 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 55 89.3% | 49 10.7% |
| Q3 - 9:18 | LAL | MISS Shaw. Williams 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 55 88.9% | 49 11.1% |
| Q3 - 9:34 | LAL | W. Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 55 87.8% | 49 12.2% |
| Q3 - 9:35 | MIA | MISS Bosh 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 55 88.3% | 49 11.7% |
| Q3 - 9:44 | LAL | W. Johnson Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10) | 55 89.3% | 49 10.7% |
| Q3 - 10:01 | MIA | Bosh 3' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST) | 55 88.1% | 49 11.9% |
| Q3 - 10:21 | MIA | Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 53 86.5% | 49 13.5% |
| Q3 - 10:22 | LAL | MISS Shaw. Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 53 86.0% | 49 14.0% |
| Q3 - 10:36 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6) | 53 84.7% | 49 15.3% |
| Q3 - 10:38 | MIA | MISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 53 85.3% | 49 14.7% |
| Q3 - 10:48 | LAL | Shaw. Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST) | 53 86.5% | 49 13.5% |
| Q3 - 10:58 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5) | 53 89.5% | 46 10.5% |
| Q3 - 11:00 | MIA | MISS Chalmers 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 53 89.9% | 46 10.1% |
| Q3 - 11:21 | LAL | Meeks Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9) | 53 90.8% | 46 9.2% |
| Q3 - 11:35 | MIA | Bosh 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS) | 53 89.5% | 46 10.5% |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | LAL | 51 88.2% | 46 11.8% | |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | LAL | LAKERS Rebound | 51 86.7% | 46 13.3% |
| Q2 - 0:01.0 | LAL | MISS Meeks 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 51 87.5% | 46 12.5% |
| Q2 - 0:07.0 | LAL | Farmar REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 51 86.7% | 46 13.3% |
| Q2 - 0:09.0 | MIA | MISS Bosh 21' Jump Shot | 51 87.0% | 46 13.0% |
| Q2 - 0:32.0 | LAL | W. Johnson 27' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Meeks 2 AST) | 51 87.8% | 46 12.2% |
| Q2 - 0:39.0 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4) | 51 90.6% | 43 9.4% |
| Q2 - 0:40.0 | LAL | MISS Farmar 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 51 91.2% | 43 8.8% |
| Q2 - 0:55.0 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 51 90.7% | 43 9.3% |
| Q2 - 0:56.0 | MIA | MISS Cole 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 51 90.9% | 43 9.1% |
| Q2 - 1:17 | LAL | Gasol 6' Jump Hook Shot (9 PTS) | 51 91.2% | 43 8.8% |
| Q2 - 1:33 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 51 92.5% | 41 7.5% |
| Q2 - 1:35 | MIA | MISS Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 | 51 92.6% | 41 7.4% |
| Q2 - 1:35 | MIA | Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS) | 51 93.2% | 41 6.8% |
| Q2 - 1:42 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4) | 50 92.2% | 41 7.8% |
| Q2 - 1:44 | LAL | MISS W. Johnson 14' Jump Shot | 50 92.0% | 41 8.0% |
| Q2 - 2:06 | MIA | Bosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS) | 50 91.2% | 41 8.8% |
| Q2 - 2:06 | MIA | Bosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS) | 49 91.0% | 41 9.0% |
| Q2 - 2:20 | LAL | Gasol 18' Jump Shot (7 PTS) | 48 90.1% | 41 9.9% |
| Q2 - 2:37 | MIA | James 4' Alley Oop Dunk (12 PTS) (Wade 3 AST) | 48 91.2% | 39 8.8% |
| Q2 - 2:40 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6) | 46 90.1% | 39 9.9% |
| Q2 - 2:42 | LAL | MISS W. Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 46 89.8% | 39 10.2% |
| Q2 - 2:50 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 46 89.0% | 39 11.0% |
| Q2 - 2:52 | MIA | MISS Wade 15' Fadeaway Jumper | 46 89.4% | 39 10.6% |
| Q2 - 3:06 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 46 90.3% | 39 9.7% |
| Q2 - 3:06 | LAL | MISS Meeks 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 46 89.9% | 39 10.1% |
| Q2 - 3:16 | MIA | Bosh 2' Slam Dunk (10 PTS) | 46 88.9% | 39 11.1% |
| Q2 - 3:18 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3) | 44 88.0% | 39 12.0% |
| Q2 - 3:19 | MIA | Gasol BLOCK (1 BLK) | 44 86.8% | 39 13.2% |
| Q2 - 3:27 | MIA | Cole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 44 87.9% | 39 12.1% |
| Q2 - 3:28 | LAL | MISS Meeks 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 44 87.5% | 39 12.5% |
| Q2 - 3:42 | MIA | Bosh 3' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST) | 44 86.3% | 39 13.7% |
| Q2 - 4:00 | LAL | Farmar Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8) | 42 85.1% | 39 14.9% |
| Q2 - 4:07 | MIA | Bosh 2' Layup (6 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST) | 42 83.4% | 39 16.6% |
| Q2 - 4:21 | LAL | Farmar Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T7) | 40 81.8% | 39 18.2% |
| Q2 - 4:36 | MIA | Bosh 3' Layup (4 PTS) (James 3 AST) | 40 79.9% | 39 20.1% |
| Q2 - 4:45 | LAL | Gasol Traveling Turnover (P1.T6) | 38 78.1% | 39 21.9% |
| Q2 - 5:00 | MIA | Bosh 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (James 2 AST) | 38 76.0% | 39 24.0% |
| Q2 - 5:14 | LAL | Farmar 17' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (W. Johnson 2 AST) | 36 74.2% | 39 25.8% |
| Q2 - 5:28 | MIA | Wade 3' Layup (11 PTS) (Cole 1 AST) | 36 76.4% | 37 23.6% |
| Q2 - 5:35 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 34 74.2% | 37 25.8% |
| Q2 - 5:36 | LAL | MISS Shaw. Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 34 73.6% | 37 26.4% |
| Q2 - 6:02 | LAL | Meeks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 34 72.2% | 37 27.8% |
| Q2 - 6:04 | MIA | Hill BLOCK (2 BLK) | 34 73.0% | 37 27.0% |
| Q2 - 6:05 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 34 74.8% | 37 25.2% |
| Q2 - 6:07 | MIA | Hill BLOCK (1 BLK) | 34 73.0% | 37 27.0% |
| Q2 - 6:30 | LAL | Meeks 3' Driving Layup (10 PTS) | 34 74.7% | 37 25.3% |
| Q2 - 6:34 | MIA | Meeks STEAL (1 STL) | 34 76.4% | 35 23.6% |
| Q2 - 6:43 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 34 78.7% | 35 21.3% |
| Q2 - 6:45 | LAL | MISS W. Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 34 78.0% | 35 22.0% |
| Q2 - 6:53 | MIA | Hill STEAL (3 STL) | 34 76.4% | 35 23.6% |
| Q2 - 7:04 | MIA | Cole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 34 78.8% | 35 21.2% |
| Q2 - 7:08 | LAL | MISS Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 | 34 78.6% | 35 21.4% |
| Q2 - 7:08 | LAL | Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS) | 34 77.5% | 35 22.5% |
| Q2 - 7:34 | MIA | Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) | 34 78.6% | 34 21.4% |
| Q2 - 7:39 | MIA | Andersen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 31 75.0% | 34 25.0% |
| Q2 - 7:42 | LAL | MISS Young 12' Step Back Jump Shot | 31 74.3% | 34 25.7% |
| Q2 - 7:56 | MIA | Wade 4' Floating Jump Shot (9 PTS) | 31 72.7% | 34 27.3% |
| Q2 - 8:12 | LAL | Henry Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5) | 29 71.1% | 34 28.9% |
| Q2 - 8:26 | MIA | Wade 4' Slam Dunk (7 PTS) (Allen 1 AST) | 29 68.8% | 34 31.2% |
| Q2 - 8:37 | MIA | Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 27 66.6% | 34 33.4% |
| Q2 - 8:39 | LAL | MISS Young 3PT Jump Shot | 27 65.9% | 34 34.1% |
| Q2 - 8:43 | LAL | Meeks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 27 64.2% | 34 35.8% |
| Q2 - 8:44 | LAL | MISS W. Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 27 65.9% | 34 34.1% |
| Q2 - 9:03 | MIA | Hill STEAL (2 STL) | 27 65.2% | 34 34.8% |
| Q2 - 9:16 | LAL | Hill 2' Slam Dunk (6 PTS) | 27 67.5% | 34 32.5% |
| Q2 - 9:18 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2) | 27 69.6% | 32 30.4% |
| Q2 - 9:19 | LAL | MISS Young 20' Jump Shot | 27 71.1% | 32 28.9% |
| Q2 - 9:39 | MIA | Wade 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Lewis 2 AST) | 27 69.5% | 32 30.5% |
| Q2 - 9:56 | LAL | Young 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Kelly 1 AST) | 24 65.2% | 32 34.8% |
| Q2 - 10:18 | MIA | Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5) | 24 69.4% | 29 30.6% |
| Q2 - 10:31 | LAL | Young Traveling Turnover (P2.T4) | 24 71.8% | 29 28.2% |
| Q2 - 10:41 | LAL | Young REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 24 69.4% | 29 30.6% |
| Q2 - 10:43 | LAL | MISS Hill 3' Layup | 24 71.1% | 29 28.9% |
| Q2 - 10:46 | LAL | Henry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1) | 24 69.4% | 29 30.6% |
| Q2 - 10:51 | LAL | MISS Young 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 24 71.1% | 29 28.9% |
| Q2 - 11:02 | LAL | Farmar REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 24 69.7% | 29 30.3% |
| Q2 - 11:03 | MIA | MISS Lewis 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 24 70.3% | 29 29.7% |
| Q2 - 11:22 | LAL | Henry 3' Driving Layup (5 PTS) (Hill 1 AST) | 24 71.7% | 29 28.3% |
| Q2 - 11:24 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 24 73.5% | 27 26.5% |
| Q2 - 11:27 | LAL | MISS Young 11' Step Back Jump Shot | 24 74.9% | 27 25.1% |
| Q2 - 11:40 | MIA | Allen 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Lewis 1 AST) | 24 73.5% | 27 26.5% |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | LAL | 21 69.7% | 27 30.3% | |
| Q1 - 0:01.0 | MIA | James 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) | 21 68.2% | 27 31.8% |
| Q1 - 0:11.0 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 19 65.5% | 27 34.5% |
| Q1 - 0:14.0 | LAL | MISS Farmar 2' Driving Layup | 19 65.0% | 27 35.0% |
| Q1 - 0:34.0 | MIA | James Traveling Turnover (P1.T4) | 19 63.9% | 27 36.1% |
| Q1 - 0:38.0 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 19 65.5% | 27 34.5% |
| Q1 - 0:39.0 | LAL | MISS Kelly 12' Jump Shot | 19 65.0% | 27 35.0% |
| Q1 - 0:51.0 | MIA | Andersen 3' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (James 1 AST) | 19 63.9% | 27 36.1% |
| Q1 - 1:07 | LAL | Farmar Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS) | 17 62.1% | 27 37.9% |
| Q1 - 1:07 | LAL | MISS Farmar Free Throw 1 of 2 | 17 62.4% | 26 37.6% |
| Q1 - 1:16 | LAL | LAKERS Rebound | 17 62.6% | 26 37.4% |
| Q1 - 1:18 | LAL | MISS Young 20' Jump Shot | 17 63.7% | 26 36.3% |
| Q1 - 1:40 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2) | 17 62.6% | 26 37.4% |
| Q1 - 1:41 | MIA | MISS James 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 17 63.0% | 26 37.0% |
| Q1 - 2:02 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 17 64.8% | 26 35.2% |
| Q1 - 2:04 | LAL | MISS Hill Free Throw 1 of 1 | 17 64.6% | 26 35.4% |
| Q1 - 2:18 | MIA | Hill STEAL (1 STL) | 17 67.0% | 24 33.0% |
| Q1 - 2:41 | LAL | Henry Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS) | 17 68.8% | 24 31.2% |
| Q1 - 2:45 | MIA | Henry STEAL (1 STL) | 17 72.7% | 21 27.3% |
| Q1 - 3:00 | LAL | Kelly 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Henry 2 AST) | 17 74.3% | 21 25.7% |
| Q1 - 3:05 | LAL | Henry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 17 77.9% | 18 22.1% |
| Q1 - 3:06 | MIA | MISS Lewis 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 17 78.4% | 18 21.6% |
| Q1 - 3:28 | LAL | Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS) | 17 79.5% | 18 20.5% |
| Q1 - 3:28 | LAL | Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS) | 17 79.9% | 17 20.1% |
| Q1 - 3:50 | MIA | James 3' Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Wade 2 AST) | 17 80.8% | 16 19.2% |
| Q1 - 3:54 | LAL | Young Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3) | 15 79.5% | 16 20.5% |
| Q1 - 4:03 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 15 78.3% | 16 21.7% |
| Q1 - 4:05 | MIA | MISS Wade 14' Turnaround Jump Shot | 15 78.8% | 16 21.2% |
| Q1 - 4:14 | MIA | Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 15 79.9% | 16 20.1% |
| Q1 - 4:15 | LAL | MISS Henry 2' Layup | 15 79.4% | 16 20.6% |
| Q1 - 4:16 | LAL | Henry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 15 78.3% | 16 21.7% |
| Q1 - 4:18 | LAL | MISS Hill 3' Layup | 15 79.4% | 16 20.6% |
| Q1 - 4:19 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 15 78.3% | 16 21.7% |
| Q1 - 4:20 | LAL | MISS Meeks 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 15 79.4% | 16 20.6% |
| Q1 - 4:39 | LAL | Hill REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 15 78.3% | 16 21.7% |
| Q1 - 4:40 | MIA | MISS Bosh 19' Jump Shot | 15 78.8% | 16 21.2% |
| Q1 - 4:56 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 15 79.9% | 16 20.1% |
| Q1 - 4:58 | LAL | MISS Young 14' Jump Shot | 15 79.4% | 16 20.6% |
| Q1 - 5:09 | LAL | Meeks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 15 78.2% | 16 21.8% |
| Q1 - 5:10 | MIA | MISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 15 78.7% | 16 21.3% |
| Q1 - 5:25 | MIA | Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 15 79.7% | 16 20.3% |
| Q1 - 5:27 | LAL | MISS Gasol 8' Hook Shot | 15 79.3% | 16 20.7% |
| Q1 - 5:45 | MIA | James Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS) | 15 78.3% | 16 21.7% |
| Q1 - 5:45 | MIA | James Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS) | 14 78.0% | 16 22.0% |
| Q1 - 5:48 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 13 77.0% | 16 23.0% |
| Q1 - 5:50 | LAL | MISS Henry 3' Layup | 13 76.5% | 16 23.5% |
| Q1 - 6:05 | MIA | Chalmers 3' Driving Dunk (4 PTS) (Bosh 2 AST) | 13 75.9% | 16 24.1% |
| Q1 - 6:10 | LAL | Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS) | 11 74.5% | 16 25.5% |
| Q1 - 6:10 | LAL | MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 | 11 74.8% | 15 25.2% |
| Q1 - 6:32 | MIA | James 4' Driving Dunk (4 PTS) | 11 74.3% | 15 25.7% |
| Q1 - 6:47 | LAL | Meeks 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Henry 1 AST) | 9 72.9% | 15 27.1% |
| Q1 - 7:02 | MIA | James 2' Alley Oop Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST) | 9 76.2% | 12 23.8% |
| Q1 - 7:08 | LAL | Meeks Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2) | 7 75.0% | 12 25.0% |
| Q1 - 7:19 | LAL | Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 7 73.3% | 12 26.7% |
| Q1 - 7:20 | LAL | MISS Meeks 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 7 74.5% | 12 25.5% |
| Q1 - 7:28 | LAL | Shaw. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 7 73.3% | 12 26.7% |
| Q1 - 7:32 | MIA | MISS Bosh 27' 3PT Jump Shot | 7 73.8% | 12 26.2% |
| Q1 - 7:55 | MIA | Bosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 75.0% | 12 25.0% |
| Q1 - 7:56 | LAL | MISS Gasol 15' Jump Shot | 7 74.5% | 12 25.5% |
| Q1 - 8:05 | LAL | Shaw. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 7 74.2% | 12 25.8% |
| Q1 - 8:07 | MIA | MISS Bosh 3' Layup | 7 74.6% | 12 25.4% |
| Q1 - 8:21 | LAL | Meeks Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1) | 7 75.6% | 12 24.4% |
| Q1 - 8:31 | MIA | Chalmers Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1) | 7 74.1% | 12 25.9% |
| Q1 - 8:33 | MIA | Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 75.6% | 12 24.4% |
| Q1 - 8:35 | LAL | MISS W. Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 7 75.2% | 12 24.8% |
| Q1 - 8:47 | LAL | Shaw. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 7 74.1% | 12 25.9% |
| Q1 - 8:48 | MIA | Heat Rebound | 7 75.6% | 12 24.4% |
| Q1 - 8:48 | MIA | MISS James Free Throw 2 of 2 | 7 74.3% | 12 25.7% |
| Q1 - 8:48 | MIA | MISS James Free Throw 1 of 2 | 7 75.2% | 12 24.8% |
| Q1 - 8:56 | LAL | Meeks 3' Layup (5 PTS) (Farmar 1 AST) | 7 75.6% | 12 24.4% |
| Q1 - 9:00 | LAL | Shaw. Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 76.8% | 10 23.2% |
| Q1 - 9:03 | MIA | MISS Battier 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 7 77.8% | 10 22.2% |
| Q1 - 9:10 | MIA | James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 7 78.8% | 10 21.2% |
| Q1 - 9:11 | LAL | MISS Farmar 28' 3PT Jump Shot | 7 78.3% | 10 21.7% |
| Q1 - 9:36 | MIA | Wade 2' Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST) | 7 77.4% | 10 22.6% |
| Q1 - 9:49 | LAL | Gasol 16' Turnaround Fadeaway (4 PTS) | 5 76.2% | 10 23.8% |
| Q1 - 10:05 | LAL | W. Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 5 77.7% | 8 22.3% |
| Q1 - 10:07 | MIA | MISS Bosh 22' Jump Shot | 5 78.1% | 8 21.9% |
| Q1 - 10:19 | LAL | Meeks 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (W. Johnson 1 AST) | 5 79.0% | 8 21.0% |
| Q1 - 10:40 | MIA | Chalmers 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS) | 5 81.1% | 5 18.9% |
| Q1 - 10:59 | LAL | Gasol 10' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 3 80.1% | 5 19.9% |
| Q1 - 11:22 | MIA | Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST) | 3 81.3% | 3 18.7% |
| Q1 - 11:38 | LAL | W. Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Meeks 1 AST) | 0 79.0% | 3 21.0% |
| Q1 - 12:00 | LAL | Jump Ball Gasol vs. Bosh: Tip to Farmar | 0 81.2% | 0 18.8% |
SHOOTING
Scoring Efficiency
MIA
1.12 56.1%
LAL
1.04 52.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Scoring by Shot Type
At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
28
36
78%
LAL
10
19
53%
Midrange
MIA
4
17
24%
LAL
9
24
38%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
9
13.5
27
33%
50%
LAL
14
21.0
36
39%
58%
Free Throws
MIA
10
17
59%
LAL
15
26
58%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency Misses
Bars scaled to point value.
Total Points
| Heat| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Wade | 23 | 64% | 11.5 / 18 | |
| C. Bosh | 23 | 55% | 11.5 / 21 | |
| L. James | 19 | 56% | 9.5 / 17 | |
| R. Allen | 12 | 120% | 6.0 / 5 | |
| M. Chalmers | 7 | 50% | 3.5 / 7 | |
| N. Cole | 7 | 58% | 3.5 / 6 | |
| S. Battier | 3 | 30% | 1.5 / 5 | |
| R. Lewis | 3 | 30% | 1.5 / 5 | |
| U. Haslem | 2 | 50% | 1.0 / 2 | |
| C. Andersen | 2 | 100% | 1.0 / 1 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
Total Points
| Lakers| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Young | 20 | 56% | 10.0 / 18 | |
| J. Meeks | 17 | 65% | 8.5 / 13 | |
| X. Henry | 14 | 64% | 7.0 / 11 | |
| P. Gasol | 13 | 50% | 6.5 / 13 | |
| W. Johnson | 12 | 67% | 6.0 / 9 | |
| J. Hill | 9 | 45% | 4.5 / 10 | |
| R. Kelly | 4 | 67% | 2.0 / 3 | |
| J. Farmar | 3 | 19% | 1.5 / 8 | |
| S. Williams | 3 | 38% | 1.5 / 4 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
MATCHUP
Scoring Opportunities
MIA
81
+9
-12
90
LAL
76
+15
-17
91
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
MIA
1.12 56.1%
LAL
1.04 52.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency & Pace | This Game | |
| Efficiency | 110.7 104.2 | MIA 108.6 +6.5 LAL 102.2 |
| Pace | 91.5 98.8 | MIA 95.9 +5.6 LAL 90.3 |
| Avg. Poss. Time | 15.8 14.2 | MIA 15.0 +0.9 LAL 15.9 |
| Four Factors | This Game | |
| EFG % | 55.4% 50.5% | MIA 56.9% +6.3% LAL 50.6% |
| TO % | 15.4% 15.0% | MIA 12.1% +3.7% LAL 15.8% |
| ORB % | 20.6% 20.3% | MIA 16.7% LAL 25.0% +8.3% |
| FTrt | 30.0 26.3 | MIA 21.3 LAL 32.9 +11.6 |
| Misc. Stats | This Game | |
| AST % | 58.8% 63.9% | MIA 70.7% +25.2% LAL 45.5% |
| STL % | 9.7% 7.6% | MIA 9.7% +1.1% LAL 8.6% |
| BLK % | 8.1% 8.1% | MIA 4.7% LAL 7.5% +2.8% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.51 and 2.51.
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting Efficiency | This Game | |
| TS% | 57.5% 53.2% | MIA 56.1% +3.9% LAL 52.2% |
| Rim FG% | 66.7% 58.2% | MIA 77.8% +25.2% LAL 52.6% |
| Mid FG% | 42.8% 38.5% | MIA 23.5% LAL 37.5% +14.0% |
| 3P % | 36.4% 38.1% | MIA 33.3% LAL 38.9% +5.6% |
| FT % | 76.0% 75.7% | MIA 58.8% +1.1% LAL 57.7% |
| Shot Distribution | This Game | |
| Rim Att. % | 38.3% 33.5% | MIA 45.0% +20.9% LAL 24.1% |
| Mid Att. % | 32.5% 37.4% | MIA 21.3% +9.1% LAL 30.4% |
| 3P Att. % | 29.2% 29.1% | MIA 33.8% LAL 45.6% +11.8% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.71 and 2.71.
| Game Totals | MIA | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Possessions | 93 | 93 |
| Possession Minutes | 23.3 | 24.7 |
| Points | 101 | 95 |
| Rebounds | 43 | 47 |
| Assists | 29 | 15 |
| Steals | 9 | 8 |
| Blocks | 2 | 4 |
| Turnovers (Team) | 12 (0) | 17 (0) |
| Fouls | ||
| Off. Rebounds (Team) | 7 (2) | 12 (3) |
| Def. Rebounds (Team) | 36 (1) | 35 (1) |
| Field Goals | 41-80 | 33-79 |
| At-the-Rim FG | 28-36 | 10-19 |
| Midrange FG | 4-17 | 9-24 |
| 2-Point FG | 32-53 | 19-43 |
| 3-Point FG | 9-27 | 14-36 |
| Free Throws | 10-17 | 15-26 |
| Fast Break Pts | ||
| 2nd Chance Pts | ||
| Points in Paint | ||
| Pts off Turnovers | ||
| Bench Points | ||
| Biggest Lead |
BOXSCORE
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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.
Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.
Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.
Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.
Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.