Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	8	Grizzlies	32%	90	82
	1	Spurs	68%	97	103

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MEM	94.3	87	87.8
SAS	119.8	86	85.2

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+11

-13

SAS

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.96 48.2%

SAS

1.27 63.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		82 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 0:30.0	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	82 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 0:31.0	MEM	MISS Haddadi 18' Jump Shot	82 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 0:45.0	SAS	De Colo Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T13)	82 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 0:58.0	MEM	Haddadi REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	82 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:58.0	MEM	Haddadi 1' Tip Shot (3 PTS)	82 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:59.0	MEM	MISS Selby 24' 3PT Jump Shot	80 0%	103 100%
Q4 - 1:04	MEM	Speights REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	80 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:05	SAS	MISS Blair 1' Layup	80 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:19	MEM	Haddadi Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	80 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:19	MEM	MISS Haddadi Free Throw 1 of 2	79 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:38	SAS	Mills 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Blair 1 AST)	79 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 1:53	SAS	Blair REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	79 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 1:55	MEM	MISS Ellington 19' Jump Shot	79 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 2:13	SAS	De Colo 2' Running Layup (2 PTS)	79 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 2:30	MEM	Selby 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	79 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 2:42	SAS	De Colo Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P1.T12)	77 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 3:00	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	77 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 3:01	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (5 BLK)	77 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 3:20	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	77 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 3:20	SAS	Duncan 2' Putback Dunk (19 PTS)	77 0.1%	98 99.9%
Q4 - 3:22	SAS	MISS Parker 5' Jump Shot	77 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 3:38	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	77 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 3:39	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (4 BLK)	77 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 3:52	MEM	Wroten REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	77 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 3:53	SAS	MISS Jackson 24' 3PT Jump Shot	77 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:12	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	77 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:12	MEM	MISS Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:19	MEM	Speights REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:20	SAS	MISS Duncan 12' Jump Shot	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:36	MEM	Speights Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T15)	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:44	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 4:45	SAS	MISS Duncan 10' Running Jump Shot	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:06	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:06	MEM	MISS Speights Free Throw 2 of 2	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:06	MEM	Speights Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	76 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:16	MEM	Speights REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	75 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:17	SAS	MISS Neal 6' Running Jump Shot	75 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:38	SAS	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	75 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 5:39	MEM	MISS Speights 18' Jump Shot	75 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 6:00	SAS	Jackson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Neal 1 AST)	75 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 6:10	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	75 0.2%	93 99.8%
Q4 - 6:11	MEM	MISS Conley 3' Layup	75 0.3%	93 99.7%
Q4 - 6:17	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T11)	75 0.3%	93 99.7%
Q4 - 6:35	SAS	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	75 0.2%	93 99.8%
Q4 - 6:35	MEM	MISS Wroten Free Throw 2 of 2	75 0.2%	93 99.8%
Q4 - 6:35	MEM	Wroten Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	75 0.3%	93 99.7%
Q4 - 6:49	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (17 PTS) (Jackson 5 AST)	74 0.2%	93 99.8%
Q4 - 6:55	SAS	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	74 0.3%	91 99.7%
Q4 - 6:57	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (3 BLK)	74 0.3%	91 99.7%
Q4 - 7:12	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)	74 0.6%	91 99.4%
Q4 - 7:24	MEM	Allen Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	74 1.0%	88 99.0%
Q4 - 7:40	SAS	Parker 17' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	71 0.6%	88 99.4%
Q4 - 7:46	MEM	Allen Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T14)	71 0.8%	86 99.2%
Q4 - 7:47	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10)	71 1.0%	86 99.0%
Q4 - 7:53	SAS	Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	71 0.8%	86 99.2%
Q4 - 7:54	MEM	MISS Arthur 17' Jump Shot	71 0.8%	86 99.2%
Q4 - 8:07	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	71 1.4%	86 98.6%
Q4 - 8:07	MEM	MISS Conley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	71 1.2%	86 98.8%
Q4 - 8:16	MEM	Conley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	71 1.4%	86 98.6%
Q4 - 8:17	SAS	MISS Neal 15' Jump Shot	71 1.3%	86 98.7%
Q4 - 8:31	MEM	Ellington Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	71 1.1%	86 98.9%
Q4 - 8:31	MEM	Ellington Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	70 1.0%	86 99.0%
Q4 - 8:51	SAS	Neal 6' Driving Bank Shot (9 PTS)	69 0.8%	86 99.2%
Q4 - 9:03	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	69 1.4%	84 98.6%
Q4 - 9:04	MEM	MISS Ellington 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 1.5%	84 98.5%
Q4 - 9:30	SAS	Diaw 18' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Mills 3 AST)	69 1.7%	84 98.3%
Q4 - 9:48	MEM	Gay Bad Pass Turnover (P6.T13)	69 2.2%	82 97.8%
Q4 - 10:01	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	69 3.2%	82 96.8%
Q4 - 10:02	SAS	MISS Neal 17' Jump Shot	69 3.0%	82 97.0%
Q4 - 10:12	SAS	Neal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	69 2.6%	82 97.4%
Q4 - 10:13	MEM	MISS Arthur 15' Jump Shot	69 2.8%	82 97.2%
Q4 - 10:25	MEM	Ellington REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	69 3.2%	82 96.8%
Q4 - 10:26	SAS	MISS Mills 26' 3PT Jump Shot	69 3.0%	82 97.0%
Q4 - 10:53	SAS	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	69 2.5%	82 97.5%
Q4 - 10:54	MEM	MISS Bayless 4' Jump Shot	69 2.7%	82 97.3%
Q4 - 11:02	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	69 3.7%	82 96.3%
Q4 - 11:03	SAS	MISS Splitter 2' Layup	69 3.4%	82 96.6%
Q4 - 11:18	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	69 3.0%	82 97.0%
Q4 - 11:20	MEM	MISS Gay 12' Jump Bank Shot	69 3.2%	82 96.8%
Q4 - 11:39	SAS	Jackson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)	69 3.6%	82 96.4%
Q4 - 11:43	MEM	Jackson STEAL (1 STL)	69 3.0%	82 97.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS		69 3.6%	82 96.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	69 2.9%	82 97.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Jackson 59' 3PT Jump Shot	69 3.4%	82 96.6%
Q3 - 0:01.0	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	69 3.4%	82 96.6%
Q3 - 0:03.0	MEM	MISS Ellington 16' Jump Shot	69 3.6%	82 96.4%
Q3 - 0:26.0	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	69 4.0%	82 96.0%
Q3 - 0:27.0	SAS	MISS Diaw 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 3.8%	82 96.2%
Q3 - 0:45.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	69 3.3%	82 96.7%
Q3 - 0:46.0	SAS	MISS Neal 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 3.8%	82 96.2%
Q3 - 1:01	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	69 3.7%	82 96.3%
Q3 - 1:02	MEM	MISS Bayless 18' Jump Shot	69 3.9%	82 96.1%
Q3 - 1:20	SAS	Neal 7' Driving Bank Shot (7 PTS)	69 4.4%	82 95.6%
Q3 - 1:31	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#11)	69 5.3%	80 94.7%
Q3 - 1:55	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	69 6.3%	80 93.7%
Q3 - 1:56	SAS	MISS Parker 17' Jump Shot	69 6.0%	80 94.0%
Q3 - 2:13	MEM	Gay Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	69 5.7%	80 94.3%
Q3 - 2:13	MEM	MISS Gay Free Throw 1 of 2	68 5.6%	80 94.4%
Q3 - 2:34	SAS	Leonard 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)	68 5.8%	80 94.2%
Q3 - 2:43	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	68 8.1%	77 91.9%
Q3 - 2:44	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	68 8.5%	77 91.5%
Q3 - 3:03	SAS	Parker 9' Floating Jump Shot (12 PTS)	68 10.1%	77 89.9%
Q3 - 3:12	MEM	Diaw STEAL (1 STL)	68 11.7%	75 88.3%
Q3 - 3:35	SAS	Leonard 3 Second Violation Turnover (P2.T8)	68 13.8%	75 86.2%
Q3 - 3:59	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	68 11.7%	75 88.3%
Q3 - 3:59	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	67 11.4%	75 88.6%
Q3 - 4:09	SAS	Green Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	66 10.5%	75 89.5%
Q3 - 4:12	MEM	Leonard STEAL (2 STL)	66 8.7%	75 91.3%
Q3 - 4:27	SAS	Parker 15' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Leonard 3 AST)	66 10.5%	75 89.5%
Q3 - 4:45	MEM	Conley Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	66 11.9%	73 88.1%
Q3 - 4:45	MEM	Conley Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	65 11.6%	73 88.4%
Q3 - 5:08	SAS	Parker 2' Driving Layup (8 PTS)	64 10.7%	73 89.3%
Q3 - 5:24	MEM	Splitter STEAL (2 STL)	64 12.2%	71 87.8%
Q3 - 5:34	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	64 14.4%	71 85.6%
Q3 - 5:35	SAS	Leonard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	64 12.2%	71 87.8%
Q3 - 5:35	SAS	MISS Leonard 1' Putback Dunk	64 13.7%	71 86.3%
Q3 - 5:37	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Shot	64 13.7%	71 86.3%
Q3 - 6:00	MEM	Gasol 18' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Conley 3 AST)	64 12.2%	71 87.8%
Q3 - 6:28	SAS	Splitter Dunk (10 PTS) (Parker 11 AST)	62 11.1%	71 88.9%
Q3 - 6:33	MEM	Green STEAL (1 STL)	62 12.5%	69 87.5%
Q3 - 6:38	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	62 14.7%	69 85.3%
Q3 - 6:58	MEM	Gasol 2' Dunk (7 PTS) (Gay 2 AST)	62 12.5%	69 87.5%
Q3 - 7:13	SAS	Parker Traveling Turnover (P1.T5)	60 11.4%	69 88.6%
Q3 - 7:27	MEM	Randolph 1' Layup (11 PTS) (Allen 1 AST)	60 9.8%	69 90.2%
Q3 - 7:42	SAS	Splitter 1' Dunk (8 PTS) (Parker 10 AST)	58 8.6%	69 91.4%
Q3 - 7:48	SAS	Leonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	58 9.8%	67 90.2%
Q3 - 7:49	MEM	Splitter BLOCK (1 BLK)	58 10.2%	67 89.8%
Q3 - 8:04	SAS	Green 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)	58 11.6%	67 88.4%
Q3 - 8:23	MEM	Allen 2' Driving Reverse Layup (8 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	58 14.8%	64 85.2%
Q3 - 8:44	SAS	Leonard 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 9 AST)	56 13.2%	64 86.8%
Q3 - 9:08	SAS	Leonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	56 17.0%	61 83.0%
Q3 - 9:09	MEM	MISS Randolph 15' Jump Shot	56 17.6%	61 82.4%
Q3 - 9:35	SAS	Duncan 3' Layup (15 PTS) (Parker 8 AST)	56 19.3%	61 80.7%
Q3 - 9:41	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	56 21.5%	59 78.5%
Q3 - 9:42	MEM	MISS Allen 9' Jump Shot	56 22.3%	59 77.7%
Q3 - 9:59	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	56 24.2%	59 75.8%
Q3 - 10:01	SAS	MISS Duncan 19' Jump Shot	56 23.1%	59 76.9%
Q3 - 10:17	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	56 21.3%	59 78.7%
Q3 - 10:18	MEM	MISS Allen 20' Jump Shot	56 22.1%	59 77.9%
Q3 - 10:38	SAS	Splitter 2' Layup (6 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)	56 24.0%	59 76.0%
Q3 - 10:44	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	56 26.5%	57 73.5%
Q3 - 10:45	MEM	Leonard BLOCK (2 BLK)	56 27.4%	57 72.6%
Q3 - 10:52	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	56 29.5%	57 70.5%
Q3 - 10:53	SAS	MISS Parker 17' Jump Shot	56 28.6%	57 71.4%
Q3 - 11:17	MEM	Gay 14' Turnaround Jump Shot (16 PTS)	56 26.3%	57 73.7%
Q3 - 11:41	MEM	Conley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	54 23.9%	57 76.1%
Q3 - 11:42	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Driving Bank Shot	54 23.1%	57 76.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM		54 21.4%	57 78.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	54 23.9%	57 76.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Randolph 54' 3PT Jump Shot	54 22.1%	57 77.9%
Q2 - 0:01.0	SAS	Leonard 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	54 23.7%	57 76.3%
Q2 - 0:21.0	MEM	Bayless 1' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	54 29.6%	54 70.4%
Q2 - 0:27.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	52 26.2%	54 73.8%
Q2 - 0:28.0	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	52 24.9%	54 75.1%
Q2 - 0:38.0	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	52 26.2%	54 73.8%
Q2 - 0:39.0	SAS	MISS Neal Free Throw 2 of 2	52 25.9%	54 74.1%
Q2 - 0:39.0	SAS	MISS Neal Free Throw 1 of 2	52 24.1%	54 75.9%
Q2 - 0:55.0	MEM	Allen Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	52 24.3%	54 75.7%
Q2 - 0:55.0	MEM	Allen Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	51 23.8%	54 76.2%
Q2 - 0:55.0	MEM	Allen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	50 21.4%	54 78.6%
Q2 - 0:56.0	MEM	MISS Gay 22' Jump Shot	50 20.3%	54 79.7%
Q2 - 1:12	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	50 21.5%	54 78.5%
Q2 - 1:13	MEM	MISS Bayless 22' Jump Shot	50 20.6%	54 79.4%
Q2 - 1:32	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	50 21.5%	54 78.5%
Q2 - 1:32	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	50 21.9%	53 78.1%
Q2 - 1:49	MEM	Gay 18' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	50 22.3%	53 77.7%
Q2 - 2:01	MEM	Conley Free Throw Technical (8 PTS)	48 19.9%	53 80.1%
Q2 - 2:01	SAS	Duncan 21' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	47 18.0%	53 82.0%
Q2 - 2:22	SAS	SPURS Rebound	47 19.9%	51 80.1%
Q2 - 2:24	MEM	MISS Randolph 9' Jump Shot	47 20.5%	51 79.5%
Q2 - 2:35	SAS	Leonard Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	47 21.9%	51 78.1%
Q2 - 2:39	MEM	Leonard STEAL (1 STL)	47 19.9%	51 80.1%
Q2 - 3:00	SAS	Duncan 20' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Green 1 AST)	47 21.9%	51 78.1%
Q2 - 3:27	MEM	Gay 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (12 PTS)	47 23.9%	49 76.1%
Q2 - 3:36	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	45 22.1%	49 77.9%
Q2 - 3:37	SAS	MISS Parker 2' Layup	45 21.4%	49 78.6%
Q2 - 3:46	SAS	Green REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	45 19.8%	49 80.2%
Q2 - 3:47	MEM	MISS Allen 3' Layup	45 20.5%	49 79.5%
Q2 - 3:57	SAS	Diaw 2' Driving Layup (12 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	45 22.1%	49 77.9%
Q2 - 4:11	MEM	Randolph Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	45 23.8%	47 76.2%
Q2 - 4:11	MEM	Randolph Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	44 23.4%	47 76.6%
Q2 - 4:31	SAS	Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	43 22.0%	47 78.0%
Q2 - 4:45	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	43 26.0%	44 74.0%
Q2 - 4:46	SAS	MISS Jackson 20' Jump Shot	43 27.8%	44 72.2%
Q2 - 5:08	MEM	Randolph Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	43 26.1%	44 73.9%
Q2 - 5:23	SAS	Diaw 2' Layup (10 PTS) (Splitter 1 AST)	40 21.9%	44 78.1%
Q2 - 5:39	MEM	Conley 9' Running Jump Shot (7 PTS)	40 24.0%	42 76.0%
Q2 - 5:55	MEM	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	38 21.9%	42 78.1%
Q2 - 5:56	SAS	MISS Splitter Free Throw 1 of 1	38 21.7%	42 78.3%
Q2 - 5:58	MEM	Gay Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P2.T5)	38 24.0%	40 76.0%
Q2 - 5:58	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	38 26.1%	40 73.9%
Q2 - 5:59	SAS	MISS Diaw 25' 3PT Jump Shot	38 25.4%	40 74.6%
Q2 - 6:11	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)	38 23.7%	40 76.3%
Q2 - 6:36	SAS	Diaw 16' Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	38 26.2%	40 73.8%
Q2 - 6:50	SAS	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 28.0%	38 72.0%
Q2 - 6:51	MEM	MISS Randolph 3' Layup	38 28.8%	38 71.2%
Q2 - 7:10	SAS	Diaw 2' Reverse Layup (6 PTS) (Mills 2 AST)	38 30.3%	38 69.7%
Q2 - 7:19	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 32.4%	36 67.6%
Q2 - 7:20	MEM	MISS Conley 1' Layup	38 33.2%	36 66.8%
Q2 - 7:33	SAS	Neal 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)	38 35.1%	36 64.9%
Q2 - 7:44	MEM	Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	38 39.7%	33 60.3%
Q2 - 7:58	SAS	Jackson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	35 35.1%	33 64.9%
Q2 - 8:02	SAS	Jackson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 39.2%	30 60.8%
Q2 - 8:04	SAS	MISS Neal 25' 3PT Jump Shot	35 41.0%	30 59.0%
Q2 - 8:21	MEM	Speights 4' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Ellington 1 AST)	35 39.2%	30 60.8%
Q2 - 8:40	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	33 36.9%	30 63.1%
Q2 - 9:01	MEM	Arthur 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	33 40.8%	27 59.2%
Q2 - 9:24	SAS	Diaw 2' Layup (4 PTS) (Jackson 3 AST)	31 38.7%	27 61.3%
Q2 - 9:42	MEM	Ellington Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	31 40.9%	25 59.1%
Q2 - 9:42	MEM	Ellington Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	30 40.6%	25 59.4%
Q2 - 9:58	SAS	Diaw 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Jackson 2 AST)	29 38.7%	25 61.3%
Q2 - 10:20	MEM	Gasol 20' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Conley 2 AST)	29 40.6%	23 59.4%
Q2 - 10:39	SAS	Jackson Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	27 38.6%	23 61.4%
Q2 - 10:51	MEM	Speights 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bayless 1 AST)	27 35.9%	23 64.1%
Q2 - 11:17	SAS	Splitter 1' Dunk (2 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)	25 33.7%	23 66.3%
Q2 - 11:23	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	25 35.8%	21 64.2%
Q2 - 11:24	MEM	MISS Gasol 6' Jump Shot	25 36.6%	21 63.4%
Q2 - 11:45	SAS	Neal 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mills 1 AST)	25 38.2%	21 61.8%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM		25 40.4%	19 59.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	25 42.9%	19 57.1%
Q1 - 0:01.0	MEM	MISS Ellington 3PT Jump Shot	25 40.8%	19 59.2%
Q1 - 0:06.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	25 42.0%	19 58.0%
Q1 - 0:06.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	25 42.5%	18 57.5%
Q1 - 0:13.0	MEM	Bayless 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	25 44.9%	17 55.1%
Q1 - 0:29.0	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	23 42.1%	17 57.9%
Q1 - 0:30.0	MEM	MISS Bayless 25' 3PT Jump Shot	23 40.8%	17 59.2%
Q1 - 0:41.0	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	23 42.1%	17 57.9%
Q1 - 0:42.0	SAS	MISS Diaw 20' Jump Shot	23 41.5%	17 58.5%
Q1 - 0:50.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	23 40.3%	17 59.7%
Q1 - 0:50.0	SAS	MISS Jackson 2' Layup	23 41.5%	17 58.5%
Q1 - 1:09	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	23 39.9%	17 60.1%
Q1 - 1:09	MEM	Gay 2' Putback Dunk (10 PTS)	23 39.9%	17 60.1%
Q1 - 1:11	MEM	MISS Randolph 24' 3PT Jump Shot	21 36.0%	17 64.0%
Q1 - 1:15	MEM	Bayless REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	21 37.1%	17 62.9%
Q1 - 1:17	MEM	Jackson BLOCK (1 BLK)	21 36.0%	17 64.0%
Q1 - 1:40	SAS	Jackson 4' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	21 37.2%	17 62.8%
Q1 - 2:00	MEM	Randolph 19' Step Back Jump Shot (4 PTS)	21 40.0%	15 60.0%
Q1 - 2:31	MEM	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 37.2%	15 62.8%
Q1 - 2:32	SAS	MISS Jackson 27' 3PT Jump Shot	19 36.6%	15 63.4%
Q1 - 2:52	MEM	Gay Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	19 35.3%	15 64.7%
Q1 - 2:52	MEM	Gay Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	18 34.9%	15 65.1%
Q1 - 3:04	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 32.8%	15 67.2%
Q1 - 3:06	SAS	MISS Parker 6' Floating Jump Shot	17 32.2%	15 67.8%
Q1 - 3:21	MEM	Gay 18' Pullup Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Randolph 1 AST)	17 30.8%	15 69.2%
Q1 - 3:43	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 29.0%	15 71.0%
Q1 - 3:44	SAS	MISS Duncan 12' Turnaround Bank Shot	15 28.4%	15 71.6%
Q1 - 4:05	MEM	Randolph 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	15 26.7%	15 73.3%
Q1 - 4:18	SAS	Duncan Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)	13 25.1%	15 74.9%
Q1 - 4:54	MEM	Gay 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	13 23.4%	15 76.6%
Q1 - 5:03	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	11 22.1%	15 77.9%
Q1 - 5:04	SAS	MISS Duncan 20' Jump Shot	11 21.6%	15 78.4%
Q1 - 5:17	MEM	Allen Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	11 20.6%	15 79.4%
Q1 - 5:20	MEM	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	11 22.1%	15 77.9%
Q1 - 5:21	SAS	MISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot	11 21.6%	15 78.4%
Q1 - 5:39	SAS	SPURS Rebound	11 20.6%	15 79.4%
Q1 - 5:41	MEM	MISS Randolph 17' Jump Shot	11 21.0%	15 79.0%
Q1 - 6:07	SAS	Duncan 14' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Leonard 2 AST)	11 22.0%	15 78.0%
Q1 - 6:28	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	11 23.3%	13 76.7%
Q1 - 6:30	MEM	Leonard BLOCK (1 BLK)	11 23.8%	13 76.2%
Q1 - 6:40	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	11 24.9%	13 75.1%
Q1 - 6:41	MEM	MISS Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	11 23.8%	13 76.2%
Q1 - 7:01	SAS	Leonard 16' Pullup Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	11 24.9%	13 75.1%
Q1 - 7:21	MEM	Gay 14' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	11 26.1%	11 73.9%
Q1 - 7:34	MEM	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 24.9%	11 75.1%
Q1 - 7:35	SAS	MISS Green Layup	9 24.3%	11 75.7%
Q1 - 7:47	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	9 23.2%	11 76.8%
Q1 - 8:04	SAS	Splitter Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	6 20.6%	11 79.4%
Q1 - 8:16	SAS	Leonard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 19.3%	11 80.7%
Q1 - 8:17	MEM	MISS Gay 20' Jump Shot	6 19.7%	11 80.3%
Q1 - 8:37	SAS	Green 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	6 20.6%	11 79.4%
Q1 - 8:49	MEM	Allen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	6 21.8%	9 78.2%
Q1 - 9:08	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	6 23.4%	9 76.6%
Q1 - 9:21	SAS	Splitter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 26.0%	6 74.0%
Q1 - 9:22	MEM	MISS Gay 1' Alley Oop Layup	6 26.4%	6 73.6%
Q1 - 9:43	SAS	Leonard 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	6 27.5%	6 72.5%
Q1 - 9:55	MEM	Allen 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Conley 1 AST)	6 28.9%	4 71.1%
Q1 - 10:15	SAS	Duncan 13' Pullup Bank Shot (4 PTS)	4 27.4%	4 72.6%
Q1 - 10:38	MEM	Conley 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 28.6%	2 71.4%
Q1 - 11:02	SAS	Duncan 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	2 26.9%	2 73.1%
Q1 - 11:17	MEM	Splitter STEAL (1 STL)	2 28.3%	0 71.7%
Q1 - 11:35	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	2 29.6%	0 70.4%
Q1 - 11:37	SAS	MISS Green 25' 3PT Jump Shot	2 29.2%	0 70.8%
Q1 - 11:54	MEM	Allen 1' Layup (2 PTS)	2 28.4%	0 71.6%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Gasol: Tip to Allen	0 26.9%	0 73.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.96 48.2%

SAS

1.27 63.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

48%

SAS

69%

Midrange

MEM

46%

SAS

53%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

1.5

11%

17%

SAS

13.5

50%

75%

Free Throws

MEM

82%

SAS

60%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Gay	17	57%	8.5 / 15
M. Gasol	12	75%	6.0 / 8
Z. Randolph	11	46%	5.5 / 12
T. Allen	11	69%	5.5 / 8
M. Conley	10	63%	5.0 / 8
M. Speights	5	50%	2.5 / 5
W. Ellington	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. Bayless	4	29%	2.0 / 7
H. Haddadi	3	50%	1.5 / 3
D. Arthur	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. Selby	2	50%	1.0 / 2
T. Wroten	1	25%	0.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Duncan	19	56%	9.5 / 17
T. Parker	17	65%	8.5 / 13
B. Diaw	14	70%	7.0 / 10
K. Leonard	13	108%	6.5 / 6
T. Splitter	10	83%	5.0 / 6
G. Neal	9	50%	4.5 / 9
D. Green	8	80%	4.0 / 5
S. Jackson	8	50%	4.0 / 8
P. Mills	3	75%	1.5 / 2
N. De Colo	2	100%	1.0 / 1
D. Blair	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+11

-13

SAS

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

0.96 48.2%

SAS

1.27 63.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	105.0 107.8	MEM 94.3 +25.5 SAS 119.8
Pace	88.5 94.7	MEM 87.8 +2.6 SAS 85.2
Avg. Poss. Time	16.7 15.4	MEM 16.4 +0.5 SAS 16.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	47.2% 53.1%	MEM 42.8% SAS 63.8% +21.0%
TO %	14.8% 14.8%	MEM 15.6% SAS 13.9% +1.7%
ORB %	31.0% 20.7%	MEM 17.1% +3.8% SAS 13.3%
FTrt	26.1 25.8	MEM 40.6 +27.4 SAS 13.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	57.9% 64.1%	MEM 37.9% SAS 75.0% +37.1%
STL %	9.6% 8.9%	MEM 4.6% SAS 8.1% +3.5%
BLK %	9.0% 8.1%	MEM 5.2% SAS 15.0% +9.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	49.8% 55.3%	MEM 48.2% SAS 63.6% +15.4%
Rim FG%	53.9% 60.8%	MEM 48.0% SAS 69.2% +21.2%
Mid FG%	40.0% 42.4%	MEM 45.7% SAS 53.1% +7.4%
3P %	34.5% 37.6%	MEM 11.1% SAS 50.0% +38.9%
FT %	77.3% 79.1%	MEM 82.1% +22.1% SAS 60.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	38.0% 37.7%	MEM 36.2% +2.0% SAS 34.2%
Mid Att. %	45.4% 35.9%	MEM 50.7% SAS 42.1% +8.6%
3P Att. %	16.6% 26.4%	MEM 13.0% SAS 23.7% +10.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	SAS
Possessions	87	86
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	82	103
Rebounds	32	33
Assists	11	33
Steals	4	7
Blocks	3	9
Turnovers (Team)	13 (2)	13 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (5)	4 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (1)	29 (2)
Field Goals	29-69	44-76
At-the-Rim FG	12-25	18-26
Midrange FG	16-35	17-32
2-Point FG	28-60	35-58
3-Point FG	1-9	9-18
Free Throws	23-28	6-10
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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8 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 26	39.0	17	57%	8	2	1	1	6	2	1	7	3-4	75%	7-13	54%	0-0	-
Zach Randolph F · 6'9" 250 · 32	33.0	11	46%	5	2	0	0	1	3	0	5	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	0-2	0%
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 25	31.2	10	63%	2	3	2	0	1	2	0	2	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 28	26.8	12	75%	3	1	0	0	0	3	1	2	4-5	80%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Tony Allen G · 6'4" 213 · 31	26.8	11	69%	4	1	1	0	3	2	1	3	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 25	22.5	2	25%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Wayne Ellington G · 6'5" 200 · 25	17.8	4	29%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4-4	100%	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Jerryd Bayless G · 6'3" 200 · 24	16.1	4	29%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Marreese Speights F-C · 6'10" 255 · 25	12.8	5	50%	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Tony Wroten G · 6'6" 205 · 20	6.8	1	25%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Josh Selby G · 6'2" 183 · 22	4.2	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Hamed Haddadi C · 7'2" 265 · 28	2.8	3	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Quincy Pondexter #20 · F · 6'7" 230 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	82	48%	32	11	4	3	13	0	6	26	23-28	82%	28-60	47%	1-9	11%

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8 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 26	39.0	17	57%	8	2	1	1	6	2	1	7	3-4	75%	7-13	54%	0-0	-
Zach Randolph F · 6'9" 250 · 32	33.0	11	46%	5	2	0	0	1	3	0	5	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	0-2	0%
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 25	31.2	10	63%	2	3	2	0	1	2	0	2	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 28	26.8	12	75%	3	1	0	0	0	3	1	2	4-5	80%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Tony Allen G · 6'4" 213 · 31	26.8	11	69%	4	1	1	0	3	2	1	3	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 25	22.5	2	25%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Wayne Ellington G · 6'5" 200 · 25	17.8	4	29%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4-4	100%	0-3	0%	0-2	0%
Jerryd Bayless G · 6'3" 200 · 24	16.1	4	29%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Marreese Speights F-C · 6'10" 255 · 25	12.8	5	50%	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Tony Wroten G · 6'6" 205 · 20	6.8	1	25%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Josh Selby G · 6'2" 183 · 22	4.2	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Hamed Haddadi C · 7'2" 265 · 28	2.8	3	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Quincy Pondexter #20 · F · 6'7" 230 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	82	48%	32	11	4	3	13	0	6	26	23-28	82%	28-60	47%	1-9	11%

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1 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 31	34.9	17	65%	1	11	0	0	4	0	0	1	5-6	83%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 37	31.0	19	56%	8	4	0	5	1	3	1	7	1-1	100%	9-17	53%	0-0	-
Tiago Splitter C · 6'11" 245 · 28	28.2	10	83%	9	1	2	1	1	3	1	8	0-1	0%	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Kawhi Leonard F · 6'7" 225 · 22	23.1	13	108%	4	3	2	2	2	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-3	100%
Danny Green G · 6'6" 215 · 26	20.1	8	80%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Boris Diaw C-F · 6'8" 250 · 31	28.8	14	70%	4	3	1	0	0	5	0	4	0-0	-	7-8	88%	0-2	0%
Stephen Jackson G-F · 6'8" 220 · 35	23.6	8	50%	2	5	1	1	2	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Gary Neal G · 6'4" 210 · 28	23.4	9	50%	2	1	0	0	0	3	0	2	0-2	0%	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Patty Mills G · 6'0" 185 · 24	13.1	3	75%	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Nando De Colo G · 6'5" 195 · 26	4.6	2	100%	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 33	3.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DeJuan Blair C-F · 6'7" 270 · 24	2.8	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Cory Joseph G · 6'2" 200 · 21	2.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 35	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	64%	33	33	7	9	13	0	4	29	6-10	60%	35-58	60%	9-18	50%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE