Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, December 22, 2012

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	10	Bulls	45%	93	75
	14	Hawks	55%	94	92

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
CHI	88.2	85	85.8
ATL	108.2	85	84.2

Scoring Opportunities

CHI

+10

-15

ATL

+12

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHI

0.90 45.2%

ATL

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	CHI	ATL
Q4 - 0:00.0	CHI		75 0%	92 100%
Q4 - 0:24.0	CHI	Mohammed 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Teague 3 AST)	75 0%	92 100%
Q4 - 0:37.0	ATL	Morrow 14' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	73 0%	92 100%
Q4 - 0:47.0	CHI	Teague 1' Running Layup (8 PTS) (Robinson 5 AST)	73 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:51.0	ATL	Jenkins Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T16)	71 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 0:59.0	CHI	Radmanovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Robinson 4 AST)	71 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:15	ATL	Tolliver Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	68 0.1%	90 99.9%
Q4 - 1:15	ATL	MISS Tolliver Free Throw 1 of 2	68 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:32	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	68 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:35	CHI	MISS Teague 20' Jump Shot	68 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:52	ATL	Scott Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T15)	68 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:16	CHI	Butler 1' Dunk (9 PTS) (Robinson 3 AST)	68 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:20	ATL	Scott Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T14)	66 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:22	CHI	Scott STEAL (1 STL)	66 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:58	ATL	Johnson 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Morrow 1 AST)	66 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:21	CHI	Teague 1' Running Layup (6 PTS) (Butler 2 AST)	66 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 3:26	ATL	Scott Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 3:35	ATL	Tolliver REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 3:37	CHI	MISS Mohammed 15' Turnaround Jump Shot	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 3:51	ATL	Scott Traveling Turnover (P1.T12)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 3:52	ATL	Scott REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 3:56	ATL	MISS Jenkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:02	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:03	CHI	MISS Robinson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:13	CHI	Radmanovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:14	ATL	MISS Scott 20' Jump Shot	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:29	CHI	Radmanovic Foul Turnover (P1.T15)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:48	ATL	Johnson 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jenkins 1 AST)	64 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 5:08	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	64 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:10	CHI	MISS Teague Free Throw 2 of 2	64 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:10	CHI	MISS Teague Free Throw 1 of 2	64 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:24	CHI	Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	64 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:26	ATL	MISS Jenkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot	64 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:46	CHI	Butler 1' Running Dunk (7 PTS)	64 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:48	CHI	Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	62 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:50	ATL	MISS Morrow 6' Turnaround Jump Shot	62 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:04	ATL	Tolliver REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	62 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:05	CHI	MISS Radmanovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot	62 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:19	ATL	Johnson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)	62 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:28	CHI	Butler 1' Putback Layup (5 PTS)	62 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:29	CHI	Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:31	CHI	MISS Gibson 19' Jump Shot	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:45	CHI	Bulls Rebound	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:45	ATL	MISS Johnson 1' Driving Layup	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:55	CHI	Teague Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T14)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:59	CHI	Teague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:02	ATL	MISS Teague 20' Jump Shot	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:23	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:24	CHI	MISS Mohammed 18' Jump Shot	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:38	ATL	Jump Ball Pachulia vs. Gibson: Tip to Robinson	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:40	ATL	MISS Morrow 11' Turnaround Jump Shot	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:53	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:54	CHI	MISS Robinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:58	ATL	Pachulia Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:59	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 8:01	CHI	MISS Butler 19' Jump Shot	60 0.2%	85 99.8%
Q4 - 8:20	ATL	Teague 2' Running Dunk (11 PTS)	60 0.2%	85 99.8%
Q4 - 8:24	ATL	Teague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	60 0.2%	83 99.8%
Q4 - 8:25	CHI	MISS Teague 20' Jump Shot	60 0.2%	83 99.8%
Q4 - 8:38	CHI	Gibson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	60 0.3%	83 99.7%
Q4 - 8:39	ATL	MISS Teague 19' Jump Shot	60 0.3%	83 99.7%
Q4 - 8:55	CHI	Teague Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	60 0.2%	83 99.8%
Q4 - 9:12	CHI	Mohammed REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	60 0.4%	83 99.6%
Q4 - 9:14	ATL	MISS Horford 20' Jump Shot	60 0.4%	83 99.6%
Q4 - 9:26	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	60 0.3%	83 99.7%
Q4 - 9:29	CHI	MISS Robinson 13' Driving Jump Shot	60 0.4%	83 99.6%
Q4 - 9:51	CHI	Robinson Free Throw Technical (9 PTS)	60 0.4%	83 99.6%
Q4 - 9:52	ATL	Morrow Free Throw Technical (5 PTS)	59 0.3%	83 99.7%
Q4 - 9:52	ATL	Morrow 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	59 0.4%	82 99.6%
Q4 - 10:14	CHI	Teague 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Robinson 2 AST)	59 0.7%	80 99.3%
Q4 - 10:29	ATL	Pachulia Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)	57 0.6%	80 99.4%
Q4 - 10:54	CHI	Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gibson 2 AST)	57 0.4%	80 99.6%
Q4 - 11:17	ATL	Horford 20' Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Teague 8 AST)	54 0.4%	80 99.6%
Q4 - 11:25	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	54 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 11:26	CHI	MISS Teague 26' 3PT Jump Shot	54 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q4 - 11:44	CHI	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	54 0.6%	78 99.4%
Q4 - 11:46	ATL	MISS Pachulia 5' Hook Shot	54 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHI		54 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHI	Bulls Rebound	54 0.6%	78 99.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHI	MISS Deng 26' 3PT Jump Shot	54 0.5%	78 99.5%
Q3 - 0:12.0	CHI	Deng REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	54 0.7%	78 99.3%
Q3 - 0:14.0	ATL	MISS Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot	54 0.7%	78 99.3%
Q3 - 0:33.0	CHI	Pachulia STEAL (3 STL)	54 0.6%	78 99.4%
Q3 - 0:50.0	ATL	Korver 15' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Pachulia 4 AST)	54 0.7%	78 99.3%
Q3 - 1:04	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	54 1.1%	76 98.9%
Q3 - 1:05	CHI	MISS Robinson 21' Jump Shot	54 1.2%	76 98.8%
Q3 - 1:28	ATL	Johnson 2' Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Pachulia 3 AST)	54 1.3%	76 98.7%
Q3 - 1:49	CHI	Teague 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	54 1.6%	74 98.4%
Q3 - 2:17	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	52 1.6%	74 98.4%
Q3 - 2:17	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	52 1.7%	73 98.3%
Q3 - 2:36	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	52 1.9%	72 98.1%
Q3 - 2:39	CHI	MISS Teague 9' Driving Jump Shot	52 2.0%	72 98.0%
Q3 - 2:50	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	52 2.3%	72 97.7%
Q3 - 2:51	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	52 1.9%	72 98.1%
Q3 - 2:51	ATL	MISS Pachulia 1' Tip Shot	52 2.2%	72 97.8%
Q3 - 2:53	ATL	MISS Williams 20' Jump Shot	52 2.2%	72 97.8%
Q3 - 3:18	CHI	Noah 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Teague 2 AST)	52 2.3%	72 97.7%
Q3 - 3:28	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	50 1.9%	72 98.1%
Q3 - 3:30	ATL	MISS Smith 9' Hook Shot	50 1.8%	72 98.2%
Q3 - 3:47	CHI	Robinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Teague 1 AST)	50 1.6%	72 98.4%
Q3 - 3:58	CHI	Bulls Rebound	47 1.1%	72 98.9%
Q3 - 3:58	CHI	MISS Deng 2' Driving Layup	47 1.0%	72 99.0%
Q3 - 4:24	ATL	Williams 2' Running Layup (16 PTS) (Teague 7 AST)	47 1.3%	72 98.7%
Q3 - 4:28	ATL	Teague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	47 1.5%	70 98.5%
Q3 - 4:29	CHI	MISS Hinrich 24' 3PT Jump Shot	47 1.6%	70 98.4%
Q3 - 4:49	CHI	Boozer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	47 1.8%	70 98.2%
Q3 - 4:50	ATL	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	47 1.7%	70 98.3%
Q3 - 5:07	ATL	Teague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	47 1.7%	70 98.3%
Q3 - 5:07	CHI	Smith BLOCK (2 BLK)	47 1.8%	70 98.2%
Q3 - 5:27	ATL	Smith 2' Driving Reverse Layup (12 PTS) (Teague 6 AST)	47 2.0%	70 98.0%
Q3 - 5:36	CHI	Smith STEAL (3 STL)	47 2.3%	68 97.7%
Q3 - 5:49	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	47 2.8%	68 97.2%
Q3 - 5:50	ATL	MISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot	47 2.6%	68 97.4%
Q3 - 6:06	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	47 2.7%	68 97.3%
Q3 - 6:07	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	47 3.2%	68 96.8%
Q3 - 6:07	CHI	MISS Noah 1' Tip Shot	47 2.8%	68 97.2%
Q3 - 6:08	CHI	MISS Hinrich 20' Jump Shot	47 2.8%	68 97.2%
Q3 - 6:18	CHI	Bulls Rebound	47 3.2%	68 96.8%
Q3 - 6:20	CHI	MISS Deng 13' Fadeaway Jumper	47 2.8%	68 97.2%
Q3 - 6:33	ATL	Teague Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T8)	47 3.2%	68 96.8%
Q3 - 6:50	ATL	Korver REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	47 2.7%	68 97.3%
Q3 - 6:51	CHI	MISS Noah 5' Hook Shot	47 2.8%	68 97.2%
Q3 - 7:08	ATL	Smith Layup (10 PTS) (Teague 5 AST)	47 3.5%	68 96.5%
Q3 - 7:26	CHI	Belinelli 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	47 4.0%	66 96.0%
Q3 - 7:48	ATL	Horford 16' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)	45 3.5%	66 96.5%
Q3 - 8:12	CHI	Noah Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T10)	45 4.3%	64 95.7%
Q3 - 8:29	ATL	Teague 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)	45 5.0%	64 95.0%
Q3 - 8:38	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	45 6.6%	61 93.4%
Q3 - 8:39	CHI	MISS Boozer 17' Jump Shot	45 6.9%	61 93.1%
Q3 - 8:55	ATL	Teague 7' Driving Jump Shot (6 PTS)	45 7.7%	61 92.3%
Q3 - 9:08	CHI	Hinrich 2' Driving Layup (7 PTS)	45 9.2%	59 90.8%
Q3 - 9:26	ATL	Horford 17' Fadeaway Jumper (16 PTS)	43 8.1%	59 91.9%
Q3 - 9:38	CHI	Boozer 11' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	43 9.1%	57 90.9%
Q3 - 9:47	ATL	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T7)	41 8.1%	57 91.9%
Q3 - 9:48	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	41 7.0%	57 93.0%
Q3 - 9:56	CHI	MISS Deng 21' Jump Shot	41 7.3%	57 92.7%
Q3 - 10:20	CHI	Hinrich REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	41 8.5%	57 91.5%
Q3 - 10:21	ATL	MISS Smith 22' Jump Shot	41 8.2%	57 91.8%
Q3 - 10:42	CHI	Boozer Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	41 7.4%	57 92.6%
Q3 - 10:42	CHI	Boozer Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	40 7.2%	57 92.8%
Q3 - 10:48	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	39 6.5%	57 93.5%
Q3 - 10:48	ATL	Smith 1' Tip Shot (8 PTS)	39 6.5%	57 93.5%
Q3 - 10:50	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	39 7.4%	55 92.6%
Q3 - 10:50	ATL	MISS Smith 1' Tip Shot	39 8.2%	55 91.8%
Q3 - 10:57	ATL	MISS Korver 24' 3PT Jump Shot	39 8.2%	55 91.8%
Q3 - 11:05	ATL	Korver REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	39 8.1%	55 91.9%
Q3 - 11:06	CHI	MISS Deng 16' Fadeaway Jumper	39 8.4%	55 91.6%
Q3 - 11:25	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	39 9.2%	55 90.8%
Q3 - 11:25	ATL	Horford Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	39 9.5%	54 90.5%
Q3 - 11:40	CHI	Noah 1' Running Layup (8 PTS) (Hinrich 4 AST)	39 10.3%	53 89.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	CHI		37 9.1%	53 90.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	ATL	Korver 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Teague 4 AST)	37 9.1%	53 90.9%
Q2 - 0:13.0	ATL	Korver REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	37 12.8%	50 87.2%
Q2 - 0:15.0	ATL	MISS Williams 2' Running Layup	37 13.5%	50 86.5%
Q2 - 0:19.0	ATL	Korver REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	37 12.8%	50 87.2%
Q2 - 0:20.0	CHI	Williams BLOCK (1 BLK)	37 13.1%	50 86.9%
Q2 - 0:37.0	ATL	Horford 1' Alley Oop Layup (12 PTS) (Smith 4 AST)	37 13.8%	50 86.2%
Q2 - 0:46.0	CHI	Belinelli Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	37 15.9%	48 84.1%
Q2 - 1:07	ATL	Korver 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Horford 2 AST)	37 17.8%	48 82.2%
Q2 - 1:31	CHI	Deng 1' Driving Layup (11 PTS) (Noah 1 AST)	37 22.6%	45 77.4%
Q2 - 1:39	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	35 19.7%	45 80.3%
Q2 - 1:41	ATL	MISS Teague Driving Layup	35 19.3%	45 80.7%
Q2 - 1:48	CHI	Boozer 2' Layup (4 PTS) (Hinrich 3 AST)	35 18.4%	45 81.6%
Q2 - 2:08	ATL	Horford 1' Layup (10 PTS) (Teague 3 AST)	33 16.9%	45 83.1%
Q2 - 2:32	CHI	Hinrich Foul Turnover (P1.T8)	33 18.7%	43 81.3%
Q2 - 2:55	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)	33 20.6%	43 79.4%
Q2 - 2:58	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	33 25.0%	40 75.0%
Q2 - 3:00	CHI	Smith BLOCK (1 BLK)	33 25.7%	40 74.3%
Q2 - 3:06	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	33 28.1%	40 71.9%
Q2 - 3:08	ATL	MISS Korver 25' 3PT Jump Shot	33 27.2%	40 72.8%
Q2 - 3:13	CHI	Smith STEAL (2 STL)	33 25.3%	40 74.7%
Q2 - 3:40	ATL	Horford 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	33 28.0%	40 72.0%
Q2 - 3:53	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	33 30.1%	38 69.9%
Q2 - 3:55	CHI	MISS Hinrich 17' Jump Shot	33 31.0%	38 69.0%
Q2 - 3:59	CHI	Gibson REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	33 33.1%	38 66.9%
Q2 - 4:02	CHI	Horford BLOCK (1 BLK)	33 31.4%	38 68.6%
Q2 - 4:21	ATL	Smith 1' Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)	33 33.3%	38 66.7%
Q2 - 4:27	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	33 35.7%	36 64.3%
Q2 - 4:28	CHI	MISS Hinrich 19' Jump Shot	33 36.6%	36 63.4%
Q2 - 4:34	CHI	Boozer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	33 38.7%	36 61.3%
Q2 - 4:36	ATL	MISS Williams 3PT Jump Shot	33 37.7%	36 62.3%
Q2 - 5:03	CHI	Hinrich 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Gibson 1 AST)	33 36.1%	36 63.9%
Q2 - 5:08	CHI	Gibson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	31 33.5%	36 66.5%
Q2 - 5:09	CHI	MISS Boozer 18' Jump Shot	31 31.8%	36 68.2%
Q2 - 5:31	ATL	Smith 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Pachulia 2 AST)	31 33.5%	36 66.5%
Q2 - 5:43	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	31 36.1%	34 63.9%
Q2 - 5:44	CHI	MISS Hinrich 25' 3PT Jump Shot	31 36.9%	34 63.1%
Q2 - 6:10	ATL	Korver 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	31 39.1%	34 60.9%
Q2 - 6:16	CHI	Smith STEAL (1 STL)	31 43.9%	31 56.1%
Q2 - 6:34	ATL	Williams Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	31 47.2%	31 52.8%
Q2 - 6:39	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	31 43.9%	31 56.1%
Q2 - 6:40	CHI	MISS Deng 21' Jump Shot	31 44.9%	31 55.1%
Q2 - 6:58	ATL	Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	31 47.2%	31 52.8%
Q2 - 7:21	CHI	Noah 1' Putback Dunk (6 PTS)	31 52.0%	28 48.0%
Q2 - 7:22	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	29 49.6%	28 50.4%
Q2 - 7:23	CHI	MISS Robinson 1' Driving Layup	29 47.5%	28 52.5%
Q2 - 7:47	ATL	Horford 4' Turnaround Hook Shot (6 PTS) (Pachulia 1 AST)	29 49.7%	28 50.3%
Q2 - 7:58	CHI	Pachulia STEAL (2 STL)	29 51.9%	26 48.1%
Q2 - 8:01	CHI	Gibson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	29 54.4%	26 45.6%
Q2 - 8:03	ATL	MISS Williams 20' Jump Shot	29 53.6%	26 46.4%
Q2 - 8:12	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	29 51.7%	26 48.3%
Q2 - 8:14	ATL	MISS Pachulia 5' Hook Shot	29 53.6%	26 46.4%
Q2 - 8:32	CHI	Robinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Deng 3 AST)	29 51.7%	26 48.3%
Q2 - 8:50	ATL	Williams 16' Driving Jump Shot (8 PTS)	26 46.7%	26 53.3%
Q2 - 9:11	CHI	Robinson 7' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	26 48.8%	24 51.2%
Q2 - 9:29	CHI	Robinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 46.5%	24 53.5%
Q2 - 9:30	ATL	MISS Morrow 25' 3PT Jump Shot	24 45.7%	24 54.3%
Q2 - 9:52	ATL	Morrow REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	24 43.9%	24 56.1%
Q2 - 9:54	ATL	MISS Tolliver 3PT Jump Shot	24 45.7%	24 54.3%
Q2 - 10:02	CHI	Pachulia STEAL (1 STL)	24 43.7%	24 56.3%
Q2 - 10:23	ATL	Pachulia 1' Running Dunk (4 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	24 46.6%	24 53.4%
Q2 - 10:31	CHI	Deng Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	24 48.6%	22 51.4%
Q2 - 10:54	ATL	Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS)	21 44.1%	22 55.9%
Q2 - 11:02	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	21 48.6%	19 51.4%
Q2 - 11:04	CHI	MISS Gibson 20' Jump Shot	21 49.3%	19 50.7%
Q2 - 11:28	ATL	Horford 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	21 51.1%	19 48.9%
Q2 - 11:47	CHI	Noah Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	21 53.4%	17 46.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL		21 56.0%	17 44.0%
Q1 - 0:01.0	CHI	Gibson 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Hinrich 2 AST)	21 53.4%	17 46.6%
Q1 - 0:08.0	CHI	Deng REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 50.4%	17 49.6%
Q1 - 0:09.0	ATL	MISS Teague 25' 3PT Jump Shot	19 49.9%	17 50.1%
Q1 - 0:27.0	CHI	Deng 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	19 48.7%	17 51.3%
Q1 - 0:37.0	ATL	Pachulia 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Teague 2 AST)	17 45.7%	17 54.3%
Q1 - 0:46.0	CHI	Hinrich 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Deng 2 AST)	17 48.6%	15 51.4%
Q1 - 1:07	ATL	Teague 2' Running Layup (4 PTS)	14 43.4%	15 56.6%
Q1 - 1:12	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 46.3%	13 53.7%
Q1 - 1:14	CHI	MISS Deng 21' Jump Shot	14 46.8%	13 53.2%
Q1 - 1:33	CHI	Gibson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 48.0%	13 52.0%
Q1 - 1:37	ATL	MISS Pachulia 4' Jump Shot	14 47.5%	13 52.5%
Q1 - 2:00	CHI	Deng 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Hinrich 1 AST)	14 46.3%	13 53.7%
Q1 - 2:20	ATL	Smith 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Teague 1 AST)	12 43.8%	13 56.2%
Q1 - 2:38	CHI	Deng 5' Driving Jump Shot (2 PTS)	12 46.2%	11 53.8%
Q1 - 2:55	ATL	Teague Traveling Turnover (P3.T5)	10 43.7%	11 56.3%
Q1 - 3:05	CHI	Gibson 4' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)	10 41.5%	11 58.5%
Q1 - 3:08	CHI	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	8 39.4%	11 60.6%
Q1 - 3:10	CHI	MISS Gibson 16' Jump Shot	8 37.9%	11 62.1%
Q1 - 3:29	ATL	Morrow 3' Layup (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	8 39.4%	11 60.6%
Q1 - 3:40	CHI	Belinelli Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	8 41.5%	9 58.5%
Q1 - 3:57	ATL	Teague Discontinue Dribble Turnover (P2.T4)	8 43.8%	9 56.2%
Q1 - 4:04	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	8 41.4%	9 58.6%
Q1 - 4:06	ATL	MISS Morrow 16' Jump Shot	8 43.0%	9 57.0%
Q1 - 4:08	ATL	Morrow REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	8 41.4%	9 58.6%
Q1 - 4:10	ATL	MISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot	8 43.0%	9 57.0%
Q1 - 4:16	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	8 41.4%	9 58.6%
Q1 - 4:18	ATL	MISS Teague 17' Jump Shot	8 43.0%	9 57.0%
Q1 - 4:35	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	8 41.4%	9 58.6%
Q1 - 4:36	CHI	MISS Belinelli 10' Turnaround Jump Shot	8 42.1%	9 57.9%
Q1 - 4:55	ATL	Korver Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	8 43.7%	9 56.3%
Q1 - 4:55	ATL	Korver Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	8 44.0%	8 56.0%
Q1 - 4:55	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	8 45.8%	7 54.2%
Q1 - 4:57	ATL	MISS Korver 18' Jump Shot	8 47.4%	7 52.6%
Q1 - 5:22	CHI	Belinelli 4' Turnaround Hook Shot (2 PTS)	8 45.5%	7 54.5%
Q1 - 5:40	ATL	Teague Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	6 43.5%	7 56.5%
Q1 - 5:50	CHI	Bulls Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)	6 41.3%	7 58.7%
Q1 - 6:17	ATL	Teague 4' Driving Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 43.3%	7 56.7%
Q1 - 6:37	CHI	Boozer Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	6 45.2%	5 54.8%
Q1 - 6:37	CHI	Boozer Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	5 44.7%	5 55.3%
Q1 - 6:59	CHI	Bulls Rebound	4 43.3%	5 56.7%
Q1 - 6:59	CHI	MISS Noah 15' Jump Shot	4 41.9%	5 58.1%
Q1 - 7:24	ATL	Horford 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 43.4%	5 56.6%
Q1 - 7:50	CHI	Noah 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Deng 1 AST)	4 45.0%	3 55.0%
Q1 - 8:10	ATL	Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Korver 1 AST)	2 43.4%	3 56.6%
Q1 - 8:19	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	2 47.0%	0 53.0%
Q1 - 8:20	CHI	MISS Noah 18' Jump Shot	2 47.7%	0 52.3%
Q1 - 8:30	CHI	Belinelli REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 49.1%	0 50.9%
Q1 - 8:31	ATL	MISS Smith 21' Jump Shot	2 48.5%	0 51.5%
Q1 - 8:49	CHI	Noah 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	2 47.0%	0 53.0%
Q1 - 9:03	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 45.4%	0 54.6%
Q1 - 9:05	ATL	MISS Horford 2' Layup	0 44.8%	0 55.2%
Q1 - 9:11	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 43.4%	0 56.6%
Q1 - 9:12	CHI	MISS Belinelli 18' Jump Shot	0 44.0%	0 56.0%
Q1 - 9:29	CHI	Noah REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 45.4%	0 54.6%
Q1 - 9:30	ATL	MISS Teague 21' Jump Shot	0 44.8%	0 55.2%
Q1 - 9:36	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 43.4%	0 56.6%
Q1 - 9:37	CHI	MISS Boozer 16' Jump Shot	0 44.0%	0 56.0%
Q1 - 9:55	ATL	Horford Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	0 45.4%	0 54.6%
Q1 - 10:08	ATL	Korver REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	0 43.4%	0 56.6%
Q1 - 10:10	CHI	MISS Boozer 17' Jump Shot	0 44.0%	0 56.0%
Q1 - 10:27	ATL	Williams Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	0 45.4%	0 54.6%
Q1 - 10:37	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 43.4%	0 56.6%
Q1 - 10:38	CHI	MISS Deng 4' Driving Jump Shot	0 44.0%	0 56.0%
Q1 - 10:45	CHI	Boozer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 45.4%	0 54.6%
Q1 - 10:48	ATL	MISS Teague 4' Driving Jump Shot	0 44.8%	0 55.2%
Q1 - 10:59	ATL	Korver REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 43.4%	0 56.6%
Q1 - 11:01	ATL	MISS Horford 21' Jump Shot	0 44.4%	0 55.6%
Q1 - 11:21	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 43.4%	0 56.6%
Q1 - 11:22	CHI	MISS Hinrich 24' 3PT Jump Shot	0 43.9%	0 56.1%
Q1 - 11:40	CHI	Boozer REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 44.9%	0 55.1%
Q1 - 11:41	ATL	MISS Korver 24' 3PT Jump Shot	0 44.5%	0 55.5%
Q1 - 12:00	ATL	Jump Ball Smith vs. Noah: Tip to Teague	0 43.4%	0 56.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

CHI

0.90 45.2%

ATL

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CHI

71%

ATL

63%

Midrange

CHI

26%

ATL

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CHI

7.5

36%

54%

ATL

10.5

37%

55%

Free Throws

CHI

75%

ATL

90%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bulls

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Deng	11	39%	5.5 / 14
J. Noah	10	56%	5.0 / 9
J. Butler	9	90%	4.5 / 5
N. Robinson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
C. Boozer	8	50%	4.0 / 8
M. Teague	8	44%	4.0 / 9
K. Hinrich	7	32%	3.5 / 11
M. Belinelli	4	40%	2.0 / 5
T. Gibson	4	40%	2.0 / 5
V. Radmanovic	3	75%	1.5 / 2
N. Mohammed	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Horford	20	77%	10.0 / 13
L. Williams	16	67%	8.0 / 12
K. Korver	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Smith	12	50%	6.0 / 12
J. Teague	11	46%	5.5 / 12
A. Morrow	7	50%	3.5 / 7
Z. Pachulia	6	43%	3.0 / 7
I. Johnson	6	75%	3.0 / 4
A. Tolliver	1	25%	0.5 / 2
M. Scott	0	-	0.0 / 1
J. Jenkins	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

CHI

+10

-15

ATL

+12

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHI

0.90 45.2%

ATL

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	104.1 104.6	CHI 88.2 +20.0 ATL 108.2
Pace	88.9 92.9	CHI 85.8 +1.5 ATL 84.2
Avg. Poss. Time	16.6 15.4	CHI 16.8 +0.3 ATL 17.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	47.0% 51.7%	CHI 45.4% ATL 53.9% +8.5%
TO %	15.3% 15.2%	CHI 16.8% +0.5% ATL 17.3%
ORB %	29.4% 22.2%	CHI 15.4% ATL 32.4% +17.0%
FTrt	25.9 24.4	CHI 10.5 ATL 13.0 +2.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	64.5% 65.1%	CHI 62.5% ATL 63.2% +0.7%
STL %	8.0% 8.7%	CHI 11.8% +3.6% ATL 8.2%
BLK %	7.9% 7.1%	CHI 5.2% ATL 6.5% +1.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	49.8% 53.2%	CHI 45.2% ATL 55.4% +10.2%
Rim FG%	56.6% 62.5%	CHI 70.8% +7.8% ATL 63.0%
Mid FG%	36.3% 38.3%	CHI 26.3% ATL 45.2% +18.9%
3P %	35.3% 37.1%	CHI 35.7% ATL 36.8% +1.1%
FT %	77.3% 71.5%	CHI 75.0% ATL 90.0% +15.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.2% 34.9%	CHI 31.6% ATL 35.1% +3.5%
Mid Att. %	44.0% 36.5%	CHI 50.0% ATL 40.3% +9.7%
3P Att. %	18.9% 28.6%	CHI 18.4% ATL 24.7% +6.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	CHI	ATL
Possessions	85	85
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	75	92
Rebounds	31	45
Assists	20	24
Steals	10	7
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (4)	12 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	25 (2)	33 (2)
Field Goals	32-76	38-77
At-the-Rim FG	17-24	17-27
Midrange FG	10-38	14-31
2-Point FG	27-62	31-58
3-Point FG	5-14	7-19
Free Throws	6-8	9-10
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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10 Chicago Bulls

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luol Deng F · 6'9" 220 · 28	33.8	11	39%	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-1	100%	5-13	38%	0-1	0%
Joakim Noah C · 6'11" 230 · 28	33.8	10	56%	9	1	1	1	6	2	2	7	0-0	-	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Kirk Hinrich G · 6'4" 190 · 32	25.8	7	32%	1	4	1	0	1	4	0	1	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-4	25%
Marco Belinelli G · 6'5" 210 · 27	22.4	4	40%	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Carlos Boozer F · 6'9" 258 · 31	22.2	8	50%	4	0	1	0	0	2	0	4	4-4	100%	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Jimmy Butler F · 6'7" 230 · 23	27.8	9	90%	5	2	1	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Nate Robinson G · 5'9" 180 · 29	22.2	9	56%	1	5	3	1	0	1	0	1	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Taj Gibson F · 6'9" 235 · 27	17.5	4	40%	5	2	0	1	2	0	2	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Marquis Teague G · 6'2" 189 · 20	16.2	8	44%	1	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-2	0%	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 35	12.0	2	33%	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Vladimir Radmanovic F · 6'10" 235 · 32	6.3	3	75%	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 35
Derrick Rose #1 · G · 6'3" 190 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	75	45%	31	20	10	3	15	0	6	25	6-8	75%	27-62	44%	5-14	36%

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10 Chicago Bulls

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luol Deng F · 6'9" 220 · 28	33.8	11	39%	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-1	100%	5-13	38%	0-1	0%
Joakim Noah C · 6'11" 230 · 28	33.8	10	56%	9	1	1	1	6	2	2	7	0-0	-	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Kirk Hinrich G · 6'4" 190 · 32	25.8	7	32%	1	4	1	0	1	4	0	1	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-4	25%
Marco Belinelli G · 6'5" 210 · 27	22.4	4	40%	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Carlos Boozer F · 6'9" 258 · 31	22.2	8	50%	4	0	1	0	0	2	0	4	4-4	100%	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Jimmy Butler F · 6'7" 230 · 23	27.8	9	90%	5	2	1	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Nate Robinson G · 5'9" 180 · 29	22.2	9	56%	1	5	3	1	0	1	0	1	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Taj Gibson F · 6'9" 235 · 27	17.5	4	40%	5	2	0	1	2	0	2	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Marquis Teague G · 6'2" 189 · 20	16.2	8	44%	1	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-2	0%	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 35	12.0	2	33%	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Vladimir Radmanovic F · 6'10" 235 · 32	6.3	3	75%	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 35
Derrick Rose #1 · G · 6'3" 190 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	75	45%	31	20	10	3	15	0	6	25	6-8	75%	27-62	44%	5-14	36%

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14 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 27	33.9	20	77%	10	2	0	1	1	2	3	7	2-2	100%	9-12	75%	0-0	-
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 27	32.0	12	50%	5	4	3	2	1	0	3	2	0-0	-	6-11	55%	0-1	0%
Lou Williams G · 6'1" 175 · 26	31.1	16	67%	4	3	0	1	2	1	0	4	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	3-6	50%
Jeff Teague G · 6'2" 189 · 25	29.9	11	46%	3	8	0	0	4	0	0	3	0-0	-	4-10	40%	1-2	50%
Kyle Korver F · 6'7" 212 · 32	27.0	13	72%	6	1	0	0	0	3	2	4	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 29	21.1	6	43%	8	4	3	0	2	0	1	7	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Anthony Morrow G · 6'5" 210 · 27	20.9	7	50%	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Anthony Tolliver F · 6'8" 240 · 28	16.1	1	25%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Ivan Johnson F · 6'8" 255 · 29	14.8	6	75%	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Mike Scott F · 6'8" 237 · 24	6.9	0	0%	1	0	1	0	4	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
John Jenkins G · 6'4" 215 · 22	6.3	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
DeShawn Stevenson F-G · 6'5" 218 · 32
Johan Petro C · 7'0" 247 · 27
Devin Harris #34 · G · 6'3" 185 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	55%	45	24	7	4	16	0	12	33	9-10	90%	31-58	53%	7-19	37%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE