FinalWin Prob.pScore
1030%96
92
170%103
101
ORTG#PossPace
ATL logo ATL
102.29083.9
MIA logo MIA
111.09198.2

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatHawksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatHawksQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventATLMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA92
0%
101
100%
Q4 - 0:10.0ATLPetro 6' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)92
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:11.0ATLPetro REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)90
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:12.0ATLMISS Jenkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot90
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:23.0MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)90
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:23.0MIAMISS Bosh Free Throw 1 of 290
0.1%
100
99.9%
Q4 - 0:45.0ATLJames STEAL (2 STL)90
0.1%
100
99.9%
Q4 - 0:50.0ATLJenkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)90
0.1%
100
99.9%
Q4 - 0:51.0MIAMISS Bosh 16' Jump Shot90
0.1%
100
99.9%
Q4 - 1:23ATLTolliver Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)90
0.2%
100
99.8%
Q4 - 1:23ATLTolliver Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)89
0.2%
100
99.8%
Q4 - 1:36ATLMorrow REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)88
0.2%
100
99.8%
Q4 - 1:37MIAMISS Bosh 19' Jump Shot88
0.2%
100
99.8%
Q4 - 1:51ATLJenkins 13' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)88
0.1%
100
99.9%
Q4 - 2:13MIAWade Dunk (26 PTS) (Cole 4 AST)86
0.1%
100
99.9%
Q4 - 2:23ATLMorrow 1' Layup (6 PTS) (Jenkins 1 AST)86
0.1%
98
99.9%
Q4 - 2:41MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)84
0.1%
98
99.9%
Q4 - 2:41MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 284
0.1%
97
99.9%
Q4 - 3:00MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:10)84
0.2%
97
99.8%
Q4 - 3:01ATLMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot84
0.2%
97
99.8%
Q4 - 3:12ATLStevenson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)84
0.3%
97
99.7%
Q4 - 3:13MIAMISS James 21' Jump Shot84
0.2%
97
99.8%
Q4 - 3:35MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)84
0.4%
97
99.6%
Q4 - 3:36ATLMISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot84
0.5%
97
99.5%
Q4 - 3:52MIAWade 20' Jump Shot (24 PTS)84
0.6%
97
99.4%
Q4 - 4:02MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:9)84
0.8%
95
99.2%
Q4 - 4:03ATLMISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot84
0.9%
95
99.1%
Q4 - 4:18ATLStevenson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)84
1.1%
95
98.9%
Q4 - 4:19MIAMISS Allen 24' 3PT Jump Shot84
1.0%
95
99.0%
Q4 - 4:44ATLTeague Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)84
0.7%
95
99.3%
Q4 - 4:44ATLTeague Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)83
0.7%
95
99.3%
Q4 - 4:57MIACole 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Allen 3 AST)82
0.5%
95
99.5%
Q4 - 5:19ATLHorford Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)82
1.7%
92
98.3%
Q4 - 5:19ATLHorford Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)81
1.6%
92
98.4%
Q4 - 5:24ATLWilliams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)80
1.3%
92
98.7%
Q4 - 5:25MIAMISS Wade 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup80
1.1%
92
98.9%
Q4 - 5:32MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)80
0.9%
92
99.1%
Q4 - 5:33ATLMISS Smith 10' Turnaround Hook Shot80
1.0%
92
99.0%
Q4 - 5:51ATLHawks Rebound80
1.2%
92
98.8%
Q4 - 5:52MIAMISS Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot80
1.1%
92
98.9%
Q4 - 6:09ATLHorford Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13)80
1.3%
92
98.7%
Q4 - 6:32MIAWade 22' Jump Shot (22 PTS)80
1.8%
92
98.2%
Q4 - 6:46MIAHEAT Rebound80
2.3%
90
97.7%
Q4 - 6:47ATLMISS Teague 12' Pullup Jump Shot80
2.6%
90
97.4%
Q4 - 7:02MIACole 21' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Bosh 2 AST)80
4.0%
90
96.0%
Q4 - 7:19ATLTeague Foul Turnover (P5.T12)80
5.0%
88
95.0%
Q4 - 7:28ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)80
6.7%
88
93.3%
Q4 - 7:29MIAMISS Allen 18' Jump Shot80
6.1%
88
93.9%
Q4 - 7:52ATLSmith Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)80
5.0%
88
95.0%
Q4 - 7:52ATLSmith Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)79
4.6%
88
95.4%
Q4 - 8:09ATLHawks Rebound78
4.7%
88
95.3%
Q4 - 8:10MIAMISS Battier 26' 3PT Jump Shot78
4.4%
88
95.6%
Q4 - 8:31MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)78
3.6%
88
96.4%
Q4 - 8:32ATLMISS Williams 1' Running Layup78
3.9%
88
96.1%
Q4 - 8:36MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T16)78
4.6%
88
95.4%
Q4 - 8:54ATLHorford 1' Layup (18 PTS) (Pachulia 1 AST)78
3.6%
88
96.4%
Q4 - 9:16MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)76
3.4%
88
96.6%
Q4 - 9:16MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)76
3.6%
87
96.4%
Q4 - 9:29ATLAnthony STEAL (2 STL)76
4.3%
86
95.7%
Q4 - 9:51MIAJames 1' Alley Oop Dunk (24 PTS) (Cole 3 AST)76
5.3%
86
94.7%
Q4 - 9:55MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)76
6.7%
84
93.3%
Q4 - 9:56ATLAnthony BLOCK (2 BLK)76
7.2%
84
92.8%
Q4 - 10:08ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)76
9.0%
84
91.0%
Q4 - 10:09MIAMISS James 8' Running Jump Shot76
8.4%
84
91.6%
Q4 - 10:21MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)76
7.3%
84
92.7%
Q4 - 10:22ATLMISS Horford 18' Jump Shot76
7.8%
84
92.2%
Q4 - 10:36ATLPachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)76
8.9%
84
91.1%
Q4 - 10:37MIAMISS Allen Layup76
8.4%
84
91.6%
Q4 - 10:51ATLWilliams Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)76
7.2%
84
92.8%
Q4 - 10:51ATLWilliams Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)75
7.0%
84
93.0%
Q4 - 10:57ATLPachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)74
5.9%
84
94.1%
Q4 - 10:58MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot74
5.5%
84
94.5%
Q4 - 11:14ATLBattier STEAL (2 STL)74
5.3%
84
94.7%
Q4 - 11:27MIAJames 5' Jump Shot (22 PTS)74
6.5%
84
93.5%
Q4 - 11:32MIACole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)74
7.9%
82
92.1%
Q4 - 11:33ATLMISS Horford 7' Floating Jump Shot74
8.4%
82
91.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0ATL74
9.6%
82
90.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0ATLHawks Rebound74
9.6%
82
90.4%
Q3 - 0:01.0ATLMISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot74
9.0%
82
91.0%
Q3 - 0:09.0MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)74
10.1%
82
89.9%
Q3 - 0:09.0MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)74
10.5%
81
89.5%
Q3 - 0:31.0ATLWilliams 1' Driving Layup (9 PTS)74
12.2%
80
87.8%
Q3 - 0:50.0MIAAllen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T15)72
10.1%
80
89.9%
Q3 - 1:02ATLSmith 24' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Williams 4 AST)72
8.9%
80
91.1%
Q3 - 1:24MIABattier 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (James 6 AST)69
6.1%
80
93.9%
Q3 - 1:42ATLSmith 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (17 PTS)69
8.8%
77
91.2%
Q3 - 2:00MIAHEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#14)67
7.3%
77
92.7%
Q3 - 2:01MIAHEAT Rebound67
6.6%
77
93.4%
Q3 - 2:02MIAMISS Allen 9' Running Hook Shot67
7.5%
77
92.5%
Q3 - 2:16MIAAllen Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)67
6.6%
77
93.4%
Q3 - 2:32ATLJames STEAL (1 STL)67
7.8%
76
92.2%
Q3 - 2:46MIAWade 1' Layup (20 PTS) (James 5 AST)67
9.3%
76
90.7%
Q3 - 2:52ATLAnthony STEAL (1 STL)67
10.9%
74
89.1%
Q3 - 3:09MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)67
13.3%
74
86.7%
Q3 - 3:09MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)67
13.7%
73
86.3%
Q3 - 3:30ATLTeague 2' Driving Layup (9 PTS)67
15.4%
72
84.6%
Q3 - 3:58MIABattier 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (James 4 AST)65
13.3%
72
86.7%
Q3 - 4:09MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)65
17.8%
69
82.2%
Q3 - 4:10ATLMISS Smith 10' Turnaround Jump Shot65
18.7%
69
81.3%
Q3 - 4:38MIAWade 15' Jump Shot (16 PTS)65
21.0%
69
79.0%
Q3 - 4:47MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)65
23.5%
67
76.5%
Q3 - 4:48ATLMISS Teague 27' 3PT Jump Shot65
24.6%
67
75.4%
Q3 - 5:14MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T13)65
27.0%
67
73.0%
Q3 - 5:28MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)65
23.4%
67
76.6%
Q3 - 5:29ATLMISS Harris 25' 3PT Jump Shot65
24.5%
67
75.5%
Q3 - 5:51MIAJames 1' Driving Layup (18 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)65
27.0%
67
73.0%
Q3 - 5:56ATLChalmers STEAL (2 STL)65
29.9%
65
70.1%
Q3 - 6:08MIAWade 18' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (James 3 AST)65
33.6%
65
66.4%
Q3 - 6:31ATLTeague 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS)65
36.7%
63
63.3%
Q3 - 6:49ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)62
30.1%
63
69.9%
Q3 - 6:50MIAMISS Chalmers 24' 3PT Jump Shot62
29.0%
63
71.0%
Q3 - 7:04MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)62
26.3%
63
73.7%
Q3 - 7:05ATLMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot62
27.2%
63
72.8%
Q3 - 7:10MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)62
29.6%
63
70.4%
Q3 - 7:15ATLChalmers STEAL (1 STL)62
26.3%
63
73.7%
Q3 - 7:25MIAChalmers Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T11)62
29.6%
63
70.4%
Q3 - 7:28MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)62
26.3%
63
73.7%
Q3 - 7:29ATLMISS Horford 12' Turnaround Jump Shot62
27.3%
63
72.7%
Q3 - 7:50ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)62
29.6%
63
70.4%
Q3 - 7:51MIAMISS Lewis 24' 3PT Jump Shot62
28.6%
63
71.4%
Q3 - 8:05MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)62
26.1%
63
73.9%
Q3 - 8:06ATLMISS Smith 19' Jump Shot62
27.1%
63
72.9%
Q3 - 8:25MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)62
29.4%
63
70.6%
Q3 - 8:43ATLSmith 1' Layup (15 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)62
26.1%
63
73.9%
Q3 - 8:45ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)60
23.6%
63
76.4%
Q3 - 8:46ATLMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot60
21.5%
63
78.5%
Q3 - 9:04MIABosh 6' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)60
23.4%
63
76.6%
Q3 - 9:23ATLHorford 1' Dunk (16 PTS) (Smith 6 AST)60
25.9%
61
74.1%
Q3 - 9:34MIAWade 20' Jump Shot (12 PTS)58
23.4%
61
76.6%
Q3 - 9:50ATLHorford 1' Driving Layup (14 PTS)58
25.9%
59
74.1%
Q3 - 10:11MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)56
23.1%
59
76.9%
Q3 - 10:11MIAMISS Bosh Free Throw 1 of 256
23.4%
58
76.6%
Q3 - 10:18MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)56
22.9%
58
77.1%
Q3 - 10:19ATLMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot56
23.7%
58
76.3%
Q3 - 10:23ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)56
25.7%
58
74.3%
Q3 - 10:24ATLMISS Harris 25' 3PT Jump Shot56
23.7%
58
76.3%
Q3 - 10:37ATLHarris REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)56
25.7%
58
74.3%
Q3 - 10:38MIAMISS Bosh 1' Dunk56
24.8%
58
75.2%
Q3 - 10:46MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)56
22.9%
58
77.1%
Q3 - 10:47ATLMISS Horford 17' Jump Shot56
23.7%
58
76.3%
Q3 - 11:14MIABosh 1' Layup (10 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)56
25.5%
58
74.5%
Q3 - 11:32ATLHorford 2' Dunk (12 PTS) (Smith 5 AST)56
28.1%
56
71.9%
Q3 - 11:47MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)54
25.5%
56
74.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA54
22.9%
56
77.1%
Q2 - 0:01.0ATLBosh STEAL (1 STL)54
23.5%
56
76.5%
Q2 - 0:14.0MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)54
25.2%
56
74.8%
Q2 - 0:35.0ATLStevenson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Teague 3 AST)54
31.3%
53
68.7%
Q2 - 0:52.0MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)51
25.2%
53
74.8%
Q2 - 1:02MIAHEAT Rebound51
23.7%
53
76.3%
Q2 - 1:03ATLMISS Smith 14' Fadeaway Jumper51
24.1%
53
75.9%
Q2 - 1:07ATLStevenson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)51
25.2%
53
74.8%
Q2 - 1:08ATLMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot51
24.1%
53
75.9%
Q2 - 1:16ATLTeague REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)51
25.2%
53
74.8%
Q2 - 1:18ATLMISS Smith 1' Driving Dunk51
24.1%
53
75.9%
Q2 - 1:38ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)51
25.2%
53
74.8%
Q2 - 1:39MIAMISS James 9' Running Hook Shot51
24.7%
53
75.3%
Q2 - 1:58ATLWilliams Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)51
23.7%
53
76.3%
Q2 - 1:58ATLWilliams Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)50
23.3%
53
76.7%
Q2 - 2:16MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS)49
21.1%
53
78.9%
Q2 - 2:25MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)49
25.5%
50
74.5%
Q2 - 2:25ATLMISS Smith 7' Hook Shot49
26.2%
50
73.8%
Q2 - 2:52MIAJames 1' Layup (10 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)49
27.9%
50
72.1%
Q2 - 3:00MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)49
30.5%
48
69.5%
Q2 - 3:01ATLMISS Teague 2' Driving Jump Shot49
30.8%
48
69.2%
Q2 - 3:18ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)49
32.9%
48
67.1%
Q2 - 3:19MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 249
32.5%
48
67.5%
Q2 - 3:19MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 249
30.8%
48
69.2%
Q2 - 3:24MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)49
29.9%
48
70.1%
Q2 - 3:25ATLMISS Smith 16' Jump Shot49
30.8%
48
69.2%
Q2 - 3:55ATLHarris REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)49
33.0%
48
67.0%
Q2 - 3:56MIAMISS Wade 17' Jump Shot49
32.0%
48
68.0%
Q2 - 4:07MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)49
29.6%
48
70.4%
Q2 - 4:08ATLMISS Stevenson 24' 3PT Jump Shot49
30.4%
48
69.6%
Q2 - 4:16ATLTeague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)49
32.3%
48
67.7%
Q2 - 4:17MIAMISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot49
31.5%
48
68.5%
Q2 - 4:34ATLHorford 7' Hook Shot (10 PTS)49
29.6%
48
70.4%
Q2 - 4:45MIAWade 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)47
27.5%
48
72.5%
Q2 - 4:53ATLStevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Smith 4 AST)47
32.1%
45
67.9%
Q2 - 5:15MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)44
27.2%
45
72.8%
Q2 - 5:15MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 244
27.7%
44
72.3%
Q2 - 5:24ATLSmith 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Teague 2 AST)44
27.3%
44
72.7%
Q2 - 5:53MIAJames 1' Putback Dunk (8 PTS)41
23.0%
44
77.0%
Q2 - 5:54MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)41
25.1%
42
74.9%
Q2 - 5:55MIAMISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot41
26.6%
42
73.4%
Q2 - 6:16ATLHorford Traveling Turnover (P1.T4)41
24.7%
42
75.3%
Q2 - 6:26MIAHEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#7)41
27.3%
42
72.7%
Q2 - 6:26MIAHEAT Rebound41
24.8%
42
75.2%
Q2 - 6:27MIAMISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot41
26.5%
42
73.5%
Q2 - 6:55ATLWilliams 1' Driving Layup (5 PTS)41
24.8%
42
75.2%
Q2 - 7:01MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)39
23.0%
42
77.0%
Q2 - 7:08MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)39
21.0%
42
79.0%
Q2 - 7:09ATLMISS Teague 19' Jump Shot39
21.6%
42
78.4%
Q2 - 7:37MIABosh 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Cole 2 AST)39
23.1%
42
76.9%
Q2 - 7:55ATLHorford 1' Dunk (8 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)39
24.7%
40
75.3%
Q2 - 8:16MIAAnthony 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)37
23.0%
40
77.0%
Q2 - 8:33ATLHorford 1' Layup (6 PTS)37
24.8%
38
75.2%
Q2 - 8:34ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)35
23.0%
38
77.0%
Q2 - 8:35ATLMISS Teague 10' Floating Jump Shot35
21.7%
38
78.3%
Q2 - 8:42ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)35
23.0%
38
77.0%
Q2 - 8:43ATLMISS Horford 9' Jump Shot35
21.7%
38
78.3%
Q2 - 9:08MIACole 20' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST)35
22.8%
38
77.2%
Q2 - 9:25ATLHorford Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)35
24.5%
36
75.5%
Q2 - 9:25ATLHorford Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)34
24.0%
36
76.0%
Q2 - 9:32ATLMorrow REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)33
22.8%
36
77.2%
Q2 - 9:33MIAMISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot33
22.2%
36
77.8%
Q2 - 9:52ATLMorrow 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)33
21.0%
36
79.0%
Q2 - 10:14MIAMiller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)31
19.7%
36
80.3%
Q2 - 10:22MIAMiller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)31
22.7%
33
77.3%
Q2 - 10:23ATLMISS Horford 14' Turnaround Jump Shot31
23.3%
33
76.7%
Q2 - 10:44MIABattier 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Allen 2 AST)31
24.7%
33
75.3%
Q2 - 11:00ATLWilliams Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)31
28.3%
30
71.7%
Q2 - 11:05ATLMorrow REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)28
24.6%
30
75.4%
Q2 - 11:06MIAMISS Allen 11' Jump Shot28
24.0%
30
76.0%
Q2 - 11:20ATLMorrow 17' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS)28
22.8%
30
77.2%
Q2 - 11:38MIABosh 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)26
21.2%
30
78.8%
Q1 - 0:00.0ATL26
22.8%
28
77.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIAJames 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)26
24.6%
28
75.4%
Q1 - 0:04.0ATLSmith 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Teague 1 AST)26
26.5%
26
73.5%
Q1 - 0:27.0MIACole 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Allen 1 AST)23
22.6%
26
77.4%
Q1 - 0:37.0MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)23
26.5%
23
73.5%
Q1 - 0:38.0ATLMISS Morrow 25' 3PT Jump Shot23
26.9%
23
73.1%
Q1 - 0:43.0ATLPachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)23
28.0%
23
72.0%
Q1 - 0:45.0MIAMISS James 10' Running Jump Shot23
27.5%
23
72.5%
Q1 - 1:00ATLSmith 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)23
26.5%
23
73.5%
Q1 - 1:23MIAAllen 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (2 PTS)20
22.6%
23
77.4%
Q1 - 1:44MIACole REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)20
24.7%
21
75.3%
Q1 - 1:45ATLAnthony BLOCK (1 BLK)20
25.1%
21
74.9%
Q1 - 1:59MIACole Foul Turnover (P2.T5)20
26.0%
21
74.0%
Q1 - 2:08ATLSmith Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)20
24.5%
21
75.5%
Q1 - 2:08ATLSmith Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)19
24.0%
21
76.0%
Q1 - 2:24MIAJames 1' Dunk (4 PTS) (Cole 1 AST)18
22.8%
21
77.2%
Q1 - 2:28ATLAllen STEAL (1 STL)18
24.6%
19
75.4%
Q1 - 2:35MIACole Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)18
26.2%
19
73.8%
Q1 - 2:44MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)18
24.6%
19
75.4%
Q1 - 2:45MIAMISS James 16' Jump Shot18
25.7%
19
74.3%
Q1 - 3:02MIAJump Ball Battier vs. Smith: Tip to18
24.3%
19
75.7%
Q1 - 3:02ATLSmith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)18
26.0%
19
74.0%
Q1 - 3:03ATLBattier BLOCK (1 BLK)18
24.8%
19
75.2%
Q1 - 3:14ATLTeague REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)18
26.0%
19
74.0%
Q1 - 3:15MIAMISS Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot18
25.5%
19
74.5%
Q1 - 3:29MIAHEAT Rebound18
24.3%
19
75.7%
Q1 - 3:30ATLMISS Williams 27' 3PT Jump Shot18
24.8%
19
75.2%
Q1 - 3:49MIAChalmers Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)18
26.1%
19
73.9%
Q1 - 3:55ATLHarris 8' Driving Jump Shot (4 PTS)18
24.3%
19
75.7%
Q1 - 4:14ATLSmith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
22.5%
19
77.5%
Q1 - 4:15MIAMISS Bosh Free Throw 2 of 216
22.3%
19
77.7%
Q1 - 4:15MIAMISS Bosh Free Throw 1 of 216
21.2%
19
78.8%
Q1 - 4:26MIAHEAT Rebound16
20.9%
19
79.1%
Q1 - 4:27ATLMISS Smith 5' Turnaround Jump Shot16
21.4%
19
78.6%
Q1 - 4:43MIAWade 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)16
22.5%
19
77.5%
Q1 - 4:52MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)16
24.0%
17
76.0%
Q1 - 4:53ATLMISS Smith 17' Fadeaway Jumper16
24.5%
17
75.5%
Q1 - 5:16MIABosh 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)16
25.6%
17
74.4%
Q1 - 5:30MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
27.2%
15
72.8%
Q1 - 5:31ATLMISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 116
27.4%
15
72.6%
Q1 - 5:49MIABosh 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)14
25.6%
15
74.4%
Q1 - 6:12ATLStevenson 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)14
26.8%
13
73.2%
Q1 - 6:33MIAWade 5' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS)11
23.9%
13
76.1%
Q1 - 6:55ATLHorford 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)11
25.2%
11
74.8%
Q1 - 7:00ATLSmith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
23.9%
11
76.1%
Q1 - 7:01MIAMISS Bosh 18' Jump Shot9
23.3%
11
76.7%
Q1 - 7:11MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)9
22.1%
11
77.9%
Q1 - 7:12ATLMISS Harris 24' 3PT Jump Shot9
22.6%
11
77.4%
Q1 - 7:38MIAChalmers Driving Layup (4 PTS)9
23.8%
11
76.2%
Q1 - 7:43MIALewis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)9
25.0%
9
75.0%
Q1 - 7:44ATLMISS Harris Driving Layup9
25.5%
9
74.5%
Q1 - 7:54MIAWade Driving Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (James 2 AST)9
26.7%
9
73.3%
Q1 - 8:05ATLTeague 10' Driving Jump Shot (4 PTS)9
27.8%
7
72.2%
Q1 - 8:28MIABosh Foul Turnover (P2.T2)7
26.4%
7
73.6%
Q1 - 8:36ATLTeague Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)7
24.8%
7
75.2%
Q1 - 8:36ATLTeague Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)6
24.6%
7
75.4%
Q1 - 8:45MIALewis 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (James 1 AST)5
23.6%
7
76.4%
Q1 - 9:07ATLHarris 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS)5
26.2%
4
73.8%
Q1 - 9:33MIAChalmers Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)3
24.9%
4
75.1%
Q1 - 9:33MIAChalmers Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)3
25.2%
3
74.8%
Q1 - 9:40MIAHEAT Rebound3
26.2%
2
73.8%
Q1 - 9:41ATLMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot3
26.7%
2
73.3%
Q1 - 10:04MIAJames 12' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)3
27.6%
2
72.4%
Q1 - 10:23MIALewis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)3
28.8%
0
71.2%
Q1 - 10:24ATLMISS Teague 24' 3PT Jump Shot3
29.3%
0
70.7%
Q1 - 10:30MIABosh Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)3
30.5%
0
69.5%
Q1 - 10:45ATLStevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)3
28.8%
0
71.2%
Q1 - 11:03ATLStevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
25.7%
0
74.3%
Q1 - 11:04MIAMISS Bosh 20' Jump Shot0
25.3%
0
74.7%
Q1 - 11:14MIAJames REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
24.6%
0
75.4%
Q1 - 11:15ATLMISS Harris 26' 3PT Jump Shot0
24.9%
0
75.1%
Q1 - 11:26ATLHorford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
25.7%
0
74.3%
Q1 - 11:27MIAMISS Lewis 25' 3PT Jump Shot0
25.4%
0
74.6%
Q1 - 11:48ATLTeague Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)0
24.6%
0
75.4%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Bosh vs. Smith: Tip to Teague0
25.8%
0
74.2%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL
1.07 53.5%
MIA
1.25 62.3%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
ATL
12
18
67%
MIA
19
22
86%
Midrange
ATL
11
29
38%
MIA
11
24
46%
3PT | Effective 3PT
ATL
9
13.5
28
32%
48%
MIA
9
13.5
21
43%
64%
Free Throws
ATL
19
20
95%
MIA
14
22
64%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
ATL logo Hawks
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Smith2255%11.0 / 20
A. Horford2063%10.0 / 16
D. Stevenson1255%6.0 / 11
J. Teague1146%5.5 / 12
L. Williams1155%5.5 / 10
A. Morrow675%3.0 / 4
D. Harris429%2.0 / 7
A. Tolliver2100%1.0 / 1
J. Jenkins250%1.0 / 2
J. Petro2100%1.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
L. James2771%13.5 / 19
D. Wade2681%13.0 / 16
C. Bosh1450%7.0 / 14
N. Cole10125%5.0 / 4
S. Battier990%4.5 / 5
M. Chalmers450%2.0 / 4
R. Lewis350%1.5 / 3
R. Allen319%1.5 / 8
M. Miller350%1.5 / 3
J. Anthony2100%1.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL
76
+9
-14
85
MIA
77
+4
-14
81
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL
1.07 53.5%
MIA
1.25 62.3%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
104.6
112.1
ATL 102.2
MIA 111.0 +8.8
Pace
92.9
90.9
ATL 83.9
MIA 98.2 +14.3
Avg. Poss. Time
15.4
16.0
ATL 17.2
MIA 14.7 +2.5
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
51.7%
55.2%
ATL 48.7%
MIA 64.9% +16.2%
TO %
15.2%
14.5%
ATL 14.3% +3.0%
MIA 17.3%
ORB %
22.2%
22.2%
ATL 21.1% +13.4%
MIA 7.7%
FTrt
24.4
29.7
ATL 26.7
MIA 32.8 +6.1
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
65.1%
60.0%
ATL 50.0%
MIA 59.0% +9.0%
STL %
8.7%
9.5%
ATL 8.9%
MIA 11.0% +2.1%
BLK %
7.1%
9.1%
ATL 2.2%
MIA 6.4% +4.2%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.51 and 2.51.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
53.2%
57.0%
ATL 53.5%
MIA 62.3% +8.8%
Rim FG%
62.5%
65.9%
ATL 66.7%
MIA 86.4% +19.7%
Mid FG%
38.3%
41.9%
ATL 37.9%
MIA 45.8% +7.9%
3P %
37.1%
39.6%
ATL 32.1%
MIA 42.9% +10.8%
FT %
71.5%
75.4%
ATL 95.0% +31.4%
MIA 63.6%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
34.9%
34.8%
ATL 24.0%
MIA 32.8% +8.8%
Mid Att. %
36.5%
36.7%
ATL 38.7%
MIA 35.8% +2.8%
3P Att. %
28.6%
28.5%
ATL 37.3% +6.0%
MIA 31.3%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.68 and 2.68.
Game TotalsATLMIA
Possessions9091
Possession Minutes25.822.3
Points92101
Rebounds3232
Assists1623
Steals810
Blocks13
Turnovers (Team)14 (0)14 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)8 (1)2 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)24 (2)30 (5)
Field Goals32-7539-67
At-the-Rim FG12-1819-22
Midrange FG11-2911-24
2-Point FG23-4730-46
3-Point FG9-289-21
Free Throws19-2014-22
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
C · 6'10" 245 · 27
39.8
20
63%
11
1
2
0
3
3
4
7
4-4
100%
8-14
57%
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 189 · 25
39.2
11
46%
3
3
2
0
5
1
1
2
4-4
100%
2-7
29%
1-3
33%
F · 6'9" 225 · 27
37.3
22
55%
3
6
0
1
2
2
1
2
4-5
80%
3-13
23%
4-5
80%
F · 6'5" 218 · 32
26.9
12
55%
4
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
0-0
-
0-0
-
4-11
36%
G · 6'3" 185 · 30
23.1
4
29%
2
0
1
0
0
5
0
2
0-0
-
2-3
67%
0-4
0%
G · 6'1" 175 · 26
31.0
11
55%
1
4
2
0
1
0
0
1
5-5
100%
3-5
60%
0-3
0%
C · 6'11" 270 · 29
18.6
0
0%
3
1
0
0
1
2
0
3
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
G · 6'5" 210 · 27
16.1
6
75%
3
0
1
0
1
1
0
3
0-0
-
3-3
100%
0-1
0%
F · 6'8" 240 · 28
2.7
2
100%
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
2-2
100%
0-0
-
0-0
-
G · 6'4" 215 · 22
2.7
2
50%
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-1
0%
C · 7'0" 247 · 27
2.7
2
100%
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0-0
-
1-1
100%
0-0
-
G · 6'7" 212 · 32
F · 6'8" 255 · 29
#32 · F · 6'8" 237 · 24
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
92
54%
32
16
8
1
14
0
8
24
19-20
95%
23-47
49%
9-28
32%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.