FinalWin Prob.pScore
246%93
95
654%95
106
ORTG#PossPace
MIA logo MIA
100.09593.4
DAL logo DAL
111.69596.6

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

MavericksHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

MavericksHeatQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventMIADAL
Q4 - 0:00.0MIA95
0%
106
100%
Q4 - 0:19.0DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)95
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 0:20.0MIAMISS James 4' Jump Shot95
0.1%
103
99.9%
Q4 - 0:27.0DALTerry Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)95
0.2%
103
99.8%
Q4 - 0:27.0DALMISS Terry Free Throw 1 of 295
0.2%
102
99.8%
Q4 - 0:29.0MIAChalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (James 4 AST)95
0.2%
102
99.8%
Q4 - 0:43.0DALKidd Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)92
0.1%
102
99.9%
Q4 - 0:43.0DALKidd Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)92
0.1%
101
99.9%
Q4 - 0:54.0DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)92
0.3%
100
99.7%
Q4 - 0:55.0MIAMISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot92
0.4%
100
99.6%
Q4 - 1:00DALButler 1' Running Layup (20 PTS) (Kidd 13 AST)92
0.8%
100
99.2%
Q4 - 1:17DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)92
2.3%
98
97.7%
Q4 - 1:18MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot92
2.8%
98
97.2%
Q4 - 1:27MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)92
4.9%
98
95.1%
Q4 - 1:29DALChandler REBOUND (Off:7 Def:10)92
2.8%
98
97.2%
Q4 - 1:29DALMISS Chandler 1' Tip Shot92
4.2%
98
95.8%
Q4 - 1:30DALChandler REBOUND (Off:6 Def:10)92
2.8%
98
97.2%
Q4 - 1:30DALMISS Chandler 1' Tip Shot92
4.2%
98
95.8%
Q4 - 1:32DALMISS Butler 3' Jump Hook Shot92
4.4%
98
95.6%
Q4 - 1:34DALButler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)92
3.1%
98
96.9%
Q4 - 1:35DALMISS Nowitzki 24' 3PT Jump Shot92
4.6%
98
95.4%
Q4 - 1:43DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)92
3.5%
98
96.5%
Q4 - 1:44MIAMISS Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot92
4.2%
98
95.8%
Q4 - 2:00MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)92
6.1%
98
93.9%
Q4 - 2:01DALMISS Terry 19' Jump Shot92
5.5%
98
94.5%
Q4 - 2:20MIAWade 19' Pullup Jump Shot (22 PTS)92
3.5%
98
96.5%
Q4 - 2:28MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)90
2.5%
98
97.5%
Q4 - 2:30DALMISS Nowitzki 3PT Jump Shot90
2.1%
98
97.9%
Q4 - 2:48MIAJames Foul Turnover (P5.T15)90
1.3%
98
98.7%
Q4 - 2:55MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)90
3.5%
98
96.5%
Q4 - 2:56DALMISS Nowitzki 11' Step Back Jump Shot90
2.9%
98
97.1%
Q4 - 3:19MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)90
1.9%
98
98.1%
Q4 - 3:19MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 289
1.8%
98
98.2%
Q4 - 3:30DALButler 15' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Kidd 12 AST)89
2.1%
98
97.9%
Q4 - 3:46MIATerry STEAL (1 STL)89
5.4%
96
94.6%
Q4 - 3:57DALNowitzki Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)89
7.7%
96
92.3%
Q4 - 3:57DALNowitzki Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)89
8.0%
95
92.0%
Q4 - 4:19MIAChalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (James 3 AST)89
10.4%
94
89.6%
Q4 - 4:35DALNowitzki 2' Driving Hook Shot (20 PTS) (Kidd 11 AST)86
5.2%
94
94.8%
Q4 - 5:06MIAJames 3' Driving Reverse Layup (23 PTS) (Bosh 2 AST)86
9.9%
92
90.1%
Q4 - 5:14MIAChalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)84
7.4%
92
92.6%
Q4 - 5:15DALMISS Terry 12' Jump Shot84
6.7%
92
93.3%
Q4 - 5:19DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)84
5.2%
92
94.8%
Q4 - 5:22MIAChandler BLOCK (3 BLK)84
5.8%
92
94.2%
Q4 - 5:28MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)84
7.3%
92
92.7%
Q4 - 5:29DALMISS Nowitzki 18' Jump Shot84
6.6%
92
93.4%
Q4 - 5:44MIAWade 15' Jump Shot (19 PTS)84
5.2%
92
94.8%
Q4 - 5:51MIAChalmers Free Throw Clear Path 2 of 2 (2 PTS)82
3.8%
92
96.2%
Q4 - 5:51MIAChalmers Free Throw Clear Path 1 of 2 (1 PTS)81
3.5%
92
96.5%
Q4 - 5:53DALTerry Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T11)80
2.0%
92
98.0%
Q4 - 6:17MIAWade Driving Reverse Layup (17 PTS)80
2.2%
92
97.8%
Q4 - 6:34MIAHeat Rebound78
1.6%
92
98.4%
Q4 - 6:35DALMISS Kidd 24' 3PT Jump Shot78
1.5%
92
98.5%
Q4 - 6:46DALBarea REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)78
1.2%
92
98.8%
Q4 - 6:47MIAMISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot78
1.3%
92
98.7%
Q4 - 7:03MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)78
2.3%
92
97.7%
Q4 - 7:04DALMISS Marion 10' Driving Jump Shot78
2.1%
92
97.9%
Q4 - 7:29MIABosh 21' Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)78
1.7%
92
98.3%
Q4 - 7:50DALBarea 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (13 PTS)76
1.3%
92
98.7%
Q4 - 8:03DALChandler REBOUND (Off:5 Def:10)76
2.3%
90
97.7%
Q4 - 8:04MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 276
2.4%
90
97.6%
Q4 - 8:04MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 276
2.8%
90
97.2%
Q4 - 8:10MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)76
3.0%
90
97.0%
Q4 - 8:12DALMISS Marion 11' Turnaround Jump Shot76
2.7%
90
97.3%
Q4 - 8:31DALMarion REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)76
2.3%
90
97.7%
Q4 - 8:32MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 176
2.4%
90
97.6%
Q4 - 8:33MIAWade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)74
1.8%
90
98.2%
Q4 - 8:34MIAMISS Bosh 9' Step Back Jump Shot74
1.5%
90
98.5%
Q4 - 8:43MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)74
1.8%
90
98.2%
Q4 - 8:45DALMISS Barea 4' Driving Jump Shot74
1.6%
90
98.4%
Q4 - 9:00MIAWade Foul Turnover (P6.T13)74
1.4%
90
98.6%
Q4 - 9:19DALMahinmi Foul Turnover (P1.T10)74
2.3%
90
97.7%
Q4 - 9:30MIAJones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)74
1.8%
90
98.2%
Q4 - 9:47DALBarea Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)71
1.1%
90
98.9%
Q4 - 9:47DALBarea Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)71
1.2%
89
98.8%
Q4 - 9:52MIANowitzki STEAL (3 STL)71
1.4%
88
98.6%
Q4 - 9:58MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)71
1.8%
88
98.2%
Q4 - 9:58DALMISS Nowitzki 25' 3PT Jump Shot71
1.7%
88
98.3%
Q4 - 10:14MIANowitzki STEAL (2 STL)71
1.8%
88
98.2%
Q4 - 10:23MIAJones Free Throw Technical (6 PTS)71
2.2%
88
97.8%
Q4 - 10:33DALTerry 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS)70
1.8%
88
98.2%
Q4 - 10:36DALTerry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)70
2.8%
85
97.2%
Q4 - 10:38DALMISS Marion 8' Driving Jump Shot70
3.2%
85
96.8%
Q4 - 10:56MIAWade 2' Driving Layup (13 PTS)70
2.8%
85
97.2%
Q4 - 11:12DALBarea Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)68
2.7%
85
97.3%
Q4 - 11:12DALBarea Driving Layup (8 PTS)68
3.3%
84
96.7%
Q4 - 11:26MIABosh 2' Layup (20 PTS)68
4.0%
82
96.0%
Q4 - 11:42DALBarea Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)66
3.3%
82
96.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA66
2.6%
82
97.4%
Q3 - 0:01.0DALBarea 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)66
3.8%
82
96.2%
Q3 - 0:06.0MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)66
4.7%
80
95.3%
Q3 - 0:06.0MIAMISS James Free Throw 1 of 265
4.5%
80
95.5%
Q3 - 0:10.0DALTerry Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)65
4.6%
80
95.4%
Q3 - 0:10.0DALTerry Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)65
4.7%
79
95.3%
Q3 - 0:30.0MIAHoward Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)65
5.7%
78
94.3%
Q3 - 0:30.0MIAHoward Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)64
5.5%
78
94.5%
Q3 - 0:44.0DALNowitzki 16' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Barea 2 AST)63
4.6%
78
95.4%
Q3 - 1:00MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)63
5.6%
76
94.4%
Q3 - 1:00MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)62
5.4%
76
94.6%
Q3 - 1:03MIAHouse REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)61
5.1%
76
94.9%
Q3 - 1:04DALMISS Terry 4' Driving Jump Shot61
4.8%
76
95.2%
Q3 - 1:25DALMAVERICKS Rebound61
4.3%
76
95.7%
Q3 - 1:26MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot61
4.5%
76
95.5%
Q3 - 1:36MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)61
5.1%
76
94.9%
Q3 - 1:37DALMISS Terry 16' Jump Shot61
4.8%
76
95.2%
Q3 - 1:52DALChandler REBOUND (Off:5 Def:9)61
4.3%
76
95.7%
Q3 - 1:54DALMISS Kidd 25' 3PT Jump Shot61
4.8%
76
95.2%
Q3 - 2:16MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)61
4.8%
76
95.2%
Q3 - 2:16MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)60
4.6%
76
95.4%
Q3 - 2:18MIAJames REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)59
4.0%
76
96.0%
Q3 - 2:19MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot59
3.5%
76
96.5%
Q3 - 2:43DALButler 8' Fadeaway Jumper (16 PTS) (Kidd 10 AST)59
4.0%
76
96.0%
Q3 - 2:51DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)59
4.8%
74
95.2%
Q3 - 2:52MIAMISS Wade 9' Jump Shot59
5.0%
74
95.0%
Q3 - 3:14MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)59
6.4%
74
93.6%
Q3 - 3:14DALMISS Chandler Free Throw 2 of 259
6.3%
74
93.7%
Q3 - 3:14DALChandler Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)59
5.7%
74
94.3%
Q3 - 3:20DALMarion REBOUND (Off:4 Def:0)59
6.4%
73
93.6%
Q3 - 3:21DALMISS Terry 15' Jump Shot59
7.2%
73
92.8%
Q3 - 3:41MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)59
6.3%
73
93.7%
Q3 - 3:41MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)58
6.1%
73
93.9%
Q3 - 3:46MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)57
5.4%
73
94.6%
Q3 - 3:47DALMISS Kidd 8' Driving Jump Shot57
5.1%
73
94.9%
Q3 - 4:10MIAWade Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T10)57
4.8%
73
95.2%
Q3 - 4:21MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)57
5.8%
73
94.2%
Q3 - 4:22DALMISS Butler 5' Jump Shot57
5.5%
73
94.5%
Q3 - 4:35DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:9)57
4.8%
73
95.2%
Q3 - 4:36MIAMISS James 3PT Jump Shot57
5.1%
73
94.9%
Q3 - 4:49MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)57
5.8%
73
94.2%
Q3 - 4:50DALMISS Butler 20' Jump Shot57
5.5%
73
94.5%
Q3 - 5:13MIAWade 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (9 PTS)57
5.3%
73
94.7%
Q3 - 5:19MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)55
4.6%
73
95.4%
Q3 - 5:20MIAMISS Arroyo 21' Jump Shot55
4.1%
73
95.9%
Q3 - 5:35DALChandler 1' Slam Dunk (13 PTS) (Stevenson 2 AST)55
4.6%
73
95.4%
Q3 - 5:46MIAJames Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T9)55
5.3%
71
94.7%
Q3 - 5:58DALButler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Nowitzki 4 AST)55
6.3%
71
93.7%
Q3 - 6:10MIAArroyo 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wade 5 AST)55
9.2%
68
90.8%
Q3 - 6:16MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)53
8.1%
68
91.9%
Q3 - 6:18DALMISS Nowitzki 3' Driving Layup53
7.7%
68
92.3%
Q3 - 6:45MIABosh Foul Turnover (P1.T8)53
6.8%
68
93.2%
Q3 - 6:57DALStevenson 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Nowitzki 3 AST)53
8.0%
68
92.0%
Q3 - 7:11MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)53
11.4%
65
88.6%
Q3 - 7:11MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)52
11.2%
65
88.8%
Q3 - 7:14MIAArroyo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)51
10.0%
65
90.0%
Q3 - 7:15DALMISS Nowitzki 25' 3PT Jump Shot51
9.6%
65
90.4%
Q3 - 7:25DALNowitzki Free Throw Technical (16 PTS)51
8.6%
65
91.4%
Q3 - 7:40MIABosh 19' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (James 2 AST)51
9.9%
64
90.1%
Q3 - 7:55DALButler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Kidd 9 AST)49
8.7%
64
91.3%
Q3 - 8:02DALButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)49
11.8%
61
88.2%
Q3 - 8:03MIAMISS Arroyo 3PT Jump Shot49
12.3%
61
87.7%
Q3 - 8:25DALButler 2' Layup (8 PTS) (Kidd 8 AST)49
13.6%
61
86.4%
Q3 - 8:29DALStevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)49
15.3%
59
84.7%
Q3 - 8:30MIAMISS James 22' Jump Shot49
16.0%
59
84.0%
Q3 - 8:53DALNowitzki 12' Turnaround Fadeaway (15 PTS)49
17.5%
59
82.5%
Q3 - 9:02DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)49
20.2%
57
79.8%
Q3 - 9:03MIAMISS Arroyo 22' Jump Shot49
20.9%
57
79.1%
Q3 - 9:28DALNowitzki 1' Driving Reverse Layup (13 PTS) (Kidd 7 AST)49
22.6%
57
77.4%
Q3 - 9:32DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)49
25.3%
55
74.7%
Q3 - 9:33MIAMISS Wade 21' Jump Shot49
26.1%
55
73.9%
Q3 - 9:50DALButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)49
28.2%
55
71.8%
Q3 - 9:50DALButler Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)49
28.6%
54
71.4%
Q3 - 9:54DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)49
31.2%
53
68.8%
Q3 - 9:55MIAMISS James 2' Alley Oop Layup49
32.2%
53
67.8%
Q3 - 10:02MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)49
34.9%
53
65.1%
Q3 - 10:03DALMISS Nowitzki 11' Jump Shot49
33.9%
53
66.1%
Q3 - 10:15DALStevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)49
31.6%
53
68.4%
Q3 - 10:16MIAMISS Bosh 9' Turnaround Fadeaway Shot49
32.6%
53
67.4%
Q3 - 10:37MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)49
34.9%
53
65.1%
Q3 - 10:39DALMISS Butler 20' Jump Shot49
33.9%
53
66.1%
Q3 - 10:43DALButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)49
31.6%
53
68.4%
Q3 - 10:45MIAChandler BLOCK (2 BLK)49
32.6%
53
67.4%
Q3 - 10:48MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)49
34.9%
53
65.1%
Q3 - 10:49MIAMISS Bosh 12' Jump Shot49
32.6%
53
67.4%
Q3 - 10:59DALChandler 1' Dunk (11 PTS) (Kidd 6 AST)49
34.9%
53
65.1%
Q3 - 11:13DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)49
38.3%
51
61.7%
Q3 - 11:14MIAMISS Bosh 19' Pullup Jump Shot49
39.4%
51
60.6%
Q3 - 11:21MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)49
41.9%
51
58.1%
Q3 - 11:22DALMISS Nowitzki 14' Step Back Jump Shot49
40.8%
51
59.2%
Q3 - 11:43DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)49
38.3%
51
61.7%
Q3 - 11:44MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot49
39.4%
51
60.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA49
41.9%
51
58.1%
Q2 - 0:01.0MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)49
41.6%
51
58.4%
Q2 - 0:03.0DALMISS Terry 3PT Jump Shot49
40.9%
51
59.1%
Q2 - 0:16.0MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)49
39.2%
51
60.8%
Q2 - 0:16.0MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)48
38.5%
51
61.5%
Q2 - 0:34.0DALMarion 12' Running Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Kidd 5 AST)47
35.4%
51
64.6%
Q2 - 0:52.0DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)47
39.1%
49
60.9%
Q2 - 0:53.0MIAMISS James 25' 3PT Jump Shot47
39.9%
49
60.1%
Q2 - 1:09DALTerry Driving Layup (6 PTS)47
41.7%
49
58.3%
Q2 - 1:14DALTerry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)47
45.8%
47
54.2%
Q2 - 1:16MIAMISS Wade 1' Driving Dunk47
46.5%
47
53.5%
Q2 - 1:40DALTerry Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)47
48.1%
47
51.9%
Q2 - 1:44DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)47
45.8%
47
54.2%
Q2 - 1:45MIAMISS James 1' Layup47
46.5%
47
53.5%
Q2 - 1:49MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)47
48.1%
47
51.9%
Q2 - 1:51DALMISS Marion 3' Layup47
47.4%
47
52.6%
Q2 - 2:03MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)47
45.1%
47
54.9%
Q2 - 2:04MIAJames REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)44
39.1%
47
60.9%
Q2 - 2:04MIAMISS Ilgauskas 17' Jump Shot44
36.9%
47
63.1%
Q2 - 2:20DALMarion REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)44
39.1%
47
60.9%
Q2 - 2:20DALMarion 1' Putback Dunk (12 PTS)44
39.1%
47
60.9%
Q2 - 2:22DALMISS Terry 2' Layup44
44.3%
45
55.7%
Q2 - 2:40MIAJames 2' Finger Roll Layup (11 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)44
42.1%
45
57.9%
Q2 - 2:46DALKidd Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)42
39.1%
45
60.9%
Q2 - 2:53MIAJames 10' Fadeaway Jumper (9 PTS)42
36.0%
45
64.0%
Q2 - 3:14DALTerry Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)40
33.8%
45
66.2%
Q2 - 3:14DALTerry Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)40
34.2%
44
65.8%
Q2 - 3:19DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)40
36.1%
43
63.9%
Q2 - 3:20MIAMISS Wade 15' Turnaround Jump Shot40
37.2%
43
62.8%
Q2 - 3:41DALButler 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS)40
39.5%
43
60.5%
Q2 - 3:48DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)40
42.0%
41
58.0%
Q2 - 3:50MIAMISS James 3' Driving Layup40
43.1%
41
56.9%
Q2 - 4:07DALButler 23' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Kidd 4 AST)40
45.2%
41
54.8%
Q2 - 4:25DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)40
48.0%
39
52.0%
Q2 - 4:27MIAChandler BLOCK (1 BLK)40
49.0%
39
51.0%
Q2 - 4:37MIAHeat Rebound40
51.3%
39
48.7%
Q2 - 4:37DALMISS Nowitzki 17' Jump Shot40
50.3%
39
49.7%
Q2 - 4:46MIANowitzki STEAL (1 STL)40
48.0%
39
52.0%
Q2 - 4:58DALTerry 8' Driving Jump Shot (2 PTS)40
51.3%
39
48.7%
Q2 - 5:18MIAJames 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (7 PTS)40
54.1%
37
45.9%
Q2 - 5:46DALKidd 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Terry 4 AST)38
51.1%
37
48.9%
Q2 - 6:02MIAHeat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#6)38
56.2%
34
43.8%
Q2 - 6:02MIAHeat Rebound38
59.5%
34
40.5%
Q2 - 6:02MIAMISS Bosh 25' 3PT Jump Shot38
57.2%
34
42.8%
Q2 - 6:28DALNowitzki 10' Jump Shot (11 PTS)38
59.5%
34
40.5%
Q2 - 6:54MIABosh 16' Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)38
61.9%
32
38.1%
Q2 - 7:00MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)36
59.6%
32
40.4%
Q2 - 7:01DALMISS Chandler 8' Jump Shot36
58.2%
32
41.8%
Q2 - 7:18MIAJones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)36
56.2%
32
43.8%
Q2 - 7:25MIAJones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)33
50.8%
32
49.2%
Q2 - 7:26MIAMISS Wade 19' Jump Shot33
48.8%
32
51.2%
Q2 - 7:43DALBarea Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)33
50.8%
32
49.2%
Q2 - 7:50MIAWade 1' Driving Layup (7 PTS)33
47.9%
32
52.1%
Q2 - 7:54MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)31
45.3%
32
54.7%
Q2 - 7:56DALMISS Marion 8' Jump Shot31
44.4%
32
55.6%
Q2 - 8:22MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)31
42.5%
32
57.5%
Q2 - 8:22MIAWade Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)30
42.0%
32
58.0%
Q2 - 8:33DALTerry Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)29
40.0%
32
60.0%
Q2 - 8:46MIAWade Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)29
37.4%
32
62.6%
Q2 - 8:46MIAMISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 228
36.8%
32
63.2%
Q2 - 9:03DALBarea 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS)28
37.5%
32
62.5%
Q2 - 9:10DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)28
39.9%
30
60.1%
Q2 - 9:11MIAMISS Chalmers 11' Running Jump Shot28
40.7%
30
59.3%
Q2 - 9:31DALMarion 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Nowitzki 2 AST)28
42.6%
30
57.4%
Q2 - 9:47MIABosh 13' Jump Shot (12 PTS)28
45.0%
28
55.0%
Q2 - 10:09DALMarion 2' Layup (8 PTS) (Barea 1 AST)26
42.5%
28
57.5%
Q2 - 10:17DALHaywood REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)26
44.8%
26
55.2%
Q2 - 10:18MIAMISS House 23' Jump Shot26
45.7%
26
54.3%
Q2 - 10:41DALNowitzki Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4)26
47.6%
26
52.4%
Q2 - 10:58DALMAVERICKS Rebound26
44.8%
26
55.2%
Q2 - 10:58MIAMISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot26
45.7%
26
54.3%
Q2 - 11:08MIADampier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
47.4%
26
52.6%
Q2 - 11:10DALMISS Nowitzki 3' Finger Roll Layup26
46.6%
26
53.4%
Q2 - 11:33DALHaywood REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)26
44.8%
26
55.2%
Q2 - 11:34MIAMISS Bosh 9' Turnaround Fadeaway Shot26
45.6%
26
54.4%
Q1 - 0:00.0MIA26
47.4%
26
52.6%
Q1 - 0:02.0DALMarion Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)26
46.8%
26
53.2%
Q1 - 0:02.0DALMarion Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)26
47.3%
25
52.7%
Q1 - 0:02.0DALMarion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)26
49.8%
24
50.2%
Q1 - 0:02.0DALMarion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)26
49.8%
24
50.2%
Q1 - 0:02.0DALMISS Marion 1' Tip Shot26
51.1%
24
48.9%
Q1 - 0:04.0DALMISS Barea 2' Layup26
51.1%
24
48.9%
Q1 - 0:11.0MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)26
49.8%
24
50.2%
Q1 - 0:11.0MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)25
49.3%
24
50.7%
Q1 - 0:27.0MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)24
46.9%
24
53.1%
Q1 - 0:29.0DALMISS Terry 24' 3PT Jump Shot24
46.3%
24
53.7%
Q1 - 0:41.0MIAJones 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Howard 2 AST)24
44.9%
24
55.1%
Q1 - 0:44.0MIAHoward REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)22
42.1%
24
57.9%
Q1 - 0:45.0MIAMISS James 18' Jump Shot22
40.7%
24
59.3%
Q1 - 1:04DALBarea 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)22
42.1%
24
57.9%
Q1 - 1:19MIAMarion STEAL (1 STL)22
45.1%
22
54.9%
Q1 - 1:40DALNowitzki 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Terry 3 AST)22
46.8%
22
53.2%
Q1 - 1:56MIAHouse 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)22
52.2%
19
47.8%
Q1 - 2:08MIAMISS James Free Throw Clear Path 2 of 219
47.1%
19
52.9%
Q1 - 2:08MIAJames Free Throw Clear Path 1 of 2 (3 PTS)19
48.8%
19
51.2%
Q1 - 2:09DALMarion Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)18
44.8%
19
55.2%
Q1 - 2:21MIAWade Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)18
42.7%
19
57.3%
Q1 - 2:41DALMarion 2' Running Layup (4 PTS) (Terry 2 AST)18
44.7%
19
55.3%
Q1 - 3:01MIABosh 1' Running Layup (10 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)18
47.1%
17
52.9%
Q1 - 3:13MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)16
45.0%
17
55.0%
Q1 - 3:14DALMISS Chandler 5' Driving Jump Shot16
44.2%
17
55.8%
Q1 - 3:27MIAWade 7' Driving Bank Shot (2 PTS)16
42.6%
17
57.4%
Q1 - 3:46DALMarion 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Terry 1 AST)14
40.5%
17
59.5%
Q1 - 3:58DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)14
42.6%
15
57.4%
Q1 - 4:00MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)14
45.0%
15
55.0%
Q1 - 4:00MIAMISS Anthony 1' Running Tip Shot14
43.3%
15
56.7%
Q1 - 4:01MIAMISS Bosh 13' Jump Shot14
43.1%
15
56.9%
Q1 - 4:04MIABosh REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)14
44.8%
15
55.2%
Q1 - 4:05MIAMISS James 19' Jump Shot14
43.1%
15
56.9%
Q1 - 4:14MIAAnthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)14
44.8%
15
55.2%
Q1 - 4:15DALMISS Terry 16' Jump Shot14
44.1%
15
55.9%
Q1 - 4:40MIAKidd STEAL (2 STL)14
42.4%
15
57.6%
Q1 - 5:01DALNowitzki 17' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Kidd 3 AST)14
44.7%
15
55.3%
Q1 - 5:14MIABosh 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)14
46.6%
13
53.4%
Q1 - 5:34DALNowitzki 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Kidd 2 AST)12
44.7%
13
55.3%
Q1 - 5:54MIABosh 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)12
46.6%
11
53.4%
Q1 - 6:12DALChandler 1' Layup (9 PTS)10
44.5%
11
55.5%
Q1 - 6:16DALChandler REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)10
46.5%
9
53.5%
Q1 - 6:17DALMISS Nowitzki 18' Jump Shot10
48.0%
9
52.0%
Q1 - 6:24MIAKidd STEAL (1 STL)10
46.5%
9
53.5%
Q1 - 6:41DALNowitzki 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Stevenson 1 AST)10
48.7%
9
51.3%
Q1 - 6:56DALNowitzki REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)10
50.7%
7
49.3%
Q1 - 6:57MIAMISS Bosh 21' Jump Shot10
51.3%
7
48.7%
Q1 - 7:17MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)10
52.6%
7
47.4%
Q1 - 7:18DALMISS Kidd 13' Pullup Jump Shot10
51.9%
7
48.1%
Q1 - 7:26DALChandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)10
50.4%
7
49.6%
Q1 - 7:26MIAMISS Arroyo 21' Jump Shot10
51.1%
7
48.9%
Q1 - 7:53DALChandler 3' Driving Layup (7 PTS) (Kidd 1 AST)10
52.6%
7
47.4%
Q1 - 7:59MIAButler STEAL (1 STL)10
54.5%
5
45.5%
Q1 - 8:03MIAWade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)10
56.3%
5
43.7%
Q1 - 8:05DALMISS Stevenson 24' 3PT Jump Shot10
55.8%
5
44.2%
Q1 - 8:28MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)10
54.4%
5
45.6%
Q1 - 8:28MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)9
54.0%
5
46.0%
Q1 - 8:32MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)8
52.4%
5
47.6%
Q1 - 8:33DALMISS Butler 17' Jump Shot8
51.8%
5
48.2%
Q1 - 8:50MIAArroyo 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS)8
50.4%
5
49.6%
Q1 - 9:01DALNowitzki Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)6
48.5%
5
51.5%
Q1 - 9:09DALChandler REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)6
46.6%
5
53.4%
Q1 - 9:09DALMISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot6
48.0%
5
52.0%
Q1 - 9:24DALKidd REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
46.6%
5
53.4%
Q1 - 9:26MIAMISS Wade 1' Reverse Layup6
47.2%
5
52.8%
Q1 - 9:35MIAIlgauskas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)6
48.5%
5
51.5%
Q1 - 9:36MIAMISS Bosh 18' Jump Shot6
47.2%
5
52.8%
Q1 - 9:53DALChandler Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)6
48.5%
5
51.5%
Q1 - 9:53DALMISS Chandler Free Throw 1 of 26
49.1%
4
50.9%
Q1 - 9:53DALChandler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)6
48.5%
4
51.5%
Q1 - 9:54DALMISS Nowitzki 16' Jump Shot6
49.9%
4
50.1%
Q1 - 10:02MIABosh 13' Fadeaway Jumper (4 PTS) (James 1 AST)6
48.1%
4
51.9%
Q1 - 10:19DALChandler 1' Putback Layup (4 PTS)4
46.6%
4
53.4%
Q1 - 10:21DALChandler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)4
48.1%
2
51.9%
Q1 - 10:22DALMISS Nowitzki 13' Jump Shot4
49.6%
2
50.4%
Q1 - 10:35MIABosh Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)4
48.2%
2
51.8%
Q1 - 10:35MIABosh Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)3
47.9%
2
52.1%
Q1 - 10:42DALKidd Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)2
46.6%
2
53.4%
Q1 - 11:04MIAArroyo 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bosh 1 AST)2
44.7%
2
55.3%
Q1 - 11:15MIABosh REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
42.9%
2
57.1%
Q1 - 11:16DALMISS Butler 18' Jump Shot0
42.4%
2
57.6%
Q1 - 11:23DALChandler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)0
41.4%
2
58.6%
Q1 - 11:24MIAMISS Ilgauskas 11' Turnaround Jump Shot0
41.9%
2
58.1%
Q1 - 11:45DALChandler 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Nowitzki 1 AST)0
42.9%
2
57.1%
Q1 - 12:00DALJump Ball Chandler vs. Ilgauskas: Tip to Nowitzki0
44.6%
0
55.4%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.01 50.5%
DAL
1.08 54.1%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
MIA
10
20
50%
DAL
19
32
59%
Midrange
MIA
16
40
40%
DAL
14
38
37%
3PT | Effective 3PT
MIA
5
7.5
15
33%
50%
DAL
7
10.5
17
41%
62%
Free Throws
MIA
28
35
80%
DAL
19
22
86%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
L. James2346%11.5 / 25
D. Wade2252%11.0 / 21
C. Bosh2255%11.0 / 20
J. Jones990%4.5 / 5
M. Chalmers8100%4.0 / 4
C. Arroyo643%3.0 / 7
E. House375%1.5 / 2
J. Howard2100%1.0 / 1
Z. Ilgauskas0-0.0 / 3
J. Anthony0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
DAL logo Mavericks
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
C. Butler2372%11.5 / 16
D. Nowitzki2246%11.0 / 24
T. Chandler1458%7.0 / 12
S. Marion1454%7.0 / 13
J. Barea1372%6.5 / 9
J. Terry1240%6.0 / 15
J. Kidd542%2.5 / 6
D. Stevenson350%1.5 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA
81
+11
-14
92
DAL
84
+13
-11
97
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA
1.01 50.5%
DAL
1.08 54.1%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
111.4
109.5
MIA 100.0
DAL 111.6 +11.6
Pace
91.3
91.5
MIA 93.4
DAL 96.6 +3.2
Avg. Poss. Time
16.2
15.9
MIA 15.4
DAL 14.9 +0.5
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
52.4%
52.5%
MIA 44.7%
DAL 50.0% +5.3%
TO %
14.4%
14.7%
MIA 14.2%
DAL 10.2% +4.0%
ORB %
25.2%
24.1%
MIA 23.3%
DAL 28.3% +5.0%
FTrt
36.3
28.6
MIA 46.7 +21.4
DAL 25.3
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
54.1%
63.7%
MIA 54.8%
DAL 62.5% +7.7%
STL %
7.3%
7.4%
MIA 8.4%
DAL 8.4%
BLK %
8.5%
6.8%
MIA 7.1% +2.1%
DAL 5.0%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.24 and 2.24.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
55.7%
54.9%
MIA 50.5%
DAL 54.1% +3.6%
Rim FG%
64.7%
62.5%
MIA 50.0%
DAL 59.4% +9.4%
Mid FG%
42.2%
44.0%
MIA 40.0% +3.2%
DAL 36.8%
3P %
37.0%
36.5%
MIA 33.3%
DAL 41.2% +7.9%
FT %
76.9%
77.7%
MIA 80.0%
DAL 86.4% +6.4%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
31.6%
29.9%
MIA 26.7%
DAL 36.8% +10.1%
Mid Att. %
44.9%
42.8%
MIA 53.3%
DAL 43.7% +9.7%
3P Att. %
23.5%
27.4%
MIA 20.0% +0.5%
DAL 19.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.42 and 2.42.
Game TotalsMIADAL
Possessions9595
Possession Minutes24.423.6
Points95106
Rebounds4346
Assists1725
Steals88
Blocks53
Turnovers (Team)14 (1)11 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)10 (1)13 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)33 (2)33 (2)
Field Goals31-7540-87
At-the-Rim FG10-2019-32
Midrange FG16-4014-38
2-Point FG26-6033-70
3-Point FG5-157-17
Free Throws28-3519-22
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
G · 6'4" 220 · 29
41.1
22
52%
9
5
0
2
7
3
1
8
6-11
55%
8-15
53%
0-1
0%
F · 6'11" 235 · 27
37.5
22
55%
8
2
2
0
1
5
1
7
4-4
100%
9-17
53%
0-1
0%
F · 6'9" 250 · 26
36.1
23
46%
8
4
1
0
5
3
2
6
13-15
87%
5-15
33%
0-4
0%
G · 6'2" 200 · 31
20.7
6
43%
3
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0-0
-
3-6
50%
0-1
0%
C · 7'3" 260 · 35
10.9
0
0%
3
0
2
0
0
3
2
1
0-0
-
0-3
0%
0-0
-
C · 6'9" 245 · 28
29.3
0
0%
3
0
0
3
0
2
1
2
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-0
-
G · 6'2" 190 · 25
20.8
8
100%
1
3
2
0
0
3
0
1
2-2
100%
0-1
0%
2-3
67%
G-F · 6'8" 218 · 30
17.1
9
90%
3
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
1-1
100%
1-1
100%
2-4
50%
G · 6'1" 190 · 33
9.6
3
75%
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0-0
-
0-1
0%
1-1
100%
F · 6'9" 250 · 38
8.8
2
100%
3
2
0
0
1
2
1
2
2-2
100%
0-0
-
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 265 · 35
8.0
0
0%
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 265 · 33
#40 · F · 6'8" 235 · 30
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#13 · G-F · 6'8" 218 · 31
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
#45 · C · 6'11" 285 · 23
INACTIVE | INACTIVE
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
95
51%
43
17
8
5
14
0
10
33
28-35
80%
26-60
43%
5-15
33%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.