Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 3, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	18	76ers	25%	87	106
	6	Spurs	75%	96	108

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
PHI	124.7	85	89.7
SAS	127.1	85	80.8

Scoring Opportunities

PHI

+11

-8

SAS

+10

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

PHI

1.15 57.6%

SAS

1.27 63.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	PHI	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	PHI		106 0%	108 100%
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS	Parker 15' Turnaround Fadeaway (15 PTS)	106 1.7%	108 98.3%
Q4 - 0:15.0	PHI	Ginobili STEAL (3 STL)	106 30.4%	106 69.6%
Q4 - 0:30.0	PHI	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	106 54.6%	106 45.4%
Q4 - 0:31.0	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	106 47.7%	106 52.3%
Q4 - 0:51.0	PHI	Iguodala 1' Slam Dunk (25 PTS)	106 33.2%	106 66.8%
Q4 - 1:01	SAS	Ginobili 1' Reverse Layup (21 PTS)	104 21.8%	106 78.2%
Q4 - 1:15	PHI	Miller 2' Reverse Layup (28 PTS) (Iguodala 8 AST)	104 34.7%	104 65.3%
Q4 - 1:29	SAS	Parker Traveling Turnover (P4.T13)	102 25.2%	104 74.8%
Q4 - 1:40	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:5 Def:7)	102 16.1%	104 83.9%
Q4 - 1:41	PHI	MISS Williams 17' Jump Shot	102 18.7%	104 81.3%
Q4 - 2:00	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Duncan 3 AST)	102 25.4%	104 74.6%
Q4 - 2:21	PHI	Miller 15' Jump Shot (26 PTS)	102 34.6%	102 65.4%
Q4 - 2:36	PHI	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	100 28.8%	102 71.2%
Q4 - 2:37	SAS	MISS Duncan 13' Jump Bank Shot	100 24.4%	102 75.6%
Q4 - 2:59	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	100 17.3%	102 82.7%
Q4 - 3:00	PHI	MISS Iguodala 18' Jump Shot	100 20.0%	102 80.0%
Q4 - 3:21	SAS	Duncan Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P2.T12)	100 28.2%	102 71.8%
Q4 - 3:44	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	100 19.6%	102 80.4%
Q4 - 3:45	PHI	MISS Iguodala 17' Turnaround Jump Shot	100 21.7%	102 78.3%
Q4 - 4:05	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	100 26.8%	102 73.2%
Q4 - 4:06	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 23' Jump Shot	100 24.4%	102 75.6%
Q4 - 4:26	PHI	Iguodala 1' Slam Dunk (23 PTS) (Williams 6 AST)	100 19.3%	102 80.7%
Q4 - 4:32	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)	98 14.3%	102 85.7%
Q4 - 4:48	PHI	Ratliff Layup (4 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	98 9.8%	102 90.2%
Q4 - 5:01	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	96 9.0%	102 91.0%
Q4 - 5:01	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	96 9.3%	101 90.7%
Q4 - 5:11	PHI	Bowen STEAL (2 STL)	96 11.9%	100 88.1%
Q4 - 5:26	SAS	Duncan 9' Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Mason Jr. 3 AST)	96 16.1%	100 83.9%
Q4 - 5:52	PHI	Ivey 22' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Iguodala 7 AST)	96 20.9%	98 79.1%
Q4 - 5:58	PHI	Ratliff REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	94 16.0%	98 84.0%
Q4 - 5:59	SAS	MISS Parker 8' Floating Jump Shot	94 14.6%	98 85.4%
Q4 - 6:12	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:5 Def:6)	94 13.0%	98 87.0%
Q4 - 6:13	PHI	MISS Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot	94 14.1%	98 85.9%
Q4 - 6:41	SAS	Bowen 3' Layup (4 PTS)	94 17.0%	98 83.0%
Q4 - 6:43	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	94 21.5%	96 78.5%
Q4 - 6:44	SAS	MISS Bonner 18' Pullup Jump Shot	94 25.5%	96 74.5%
Q4 - 7:09	PHI	Ratliff 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Iguodala 6 AST)	94 21.5%	96 78.5%
Q4 - 7:17	PHI	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	92 17.4%	96 82.6%
Q4 - 7:18	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:5 Def:5)	92 13.5%	96 86.5%
Q4 - 7:18	SAS	MISS Duncan 2' Layup	92 16.1%	96 83.9%
Q4 - 7:20	SAS	MISS Duncan 3' Layup	92 16.1%	96 83.9%
Q4 - 7:34	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	92 13.5%	96 86.5%
Q4 - 7:35	PHI	MISS Williams 1' Layup	92 14.6%	96 85.4%
Q4 - 7:43	PHI	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	92 17.4%	96 82.6%
Q4 - 7:44	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 17' Jump Shot	92 16.1%	96 83.9%
Q4 - 8:10	PHI	Ivey Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	92 14.5%	96 85.5%
Q4 - 8:10	PHI	MISS Ivey Free Throw 1 of 2	91 13.7%	96 86.3%
Q4 - 8:26	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Parker 10 AST)	91 14.3%	96 85.7%
Q4 - 8:42	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	91 22.0%	93 78.0%
Q4 - 8:43	PHI	MISS Ivey 25' 3PT Jump Shot	91 23.4%	93 76.6%
Q4 - 9:01	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	91 26.9%	93 73.1%
Q4 - 9:01	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	91 27.5%	92 72.5%
Q4 - 9:19	PHI	Speights 5' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Williams 5 AST)	91 32.1%	91 67.9%
Q4 - 9:42	SAS	Mason Jr. 21' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	89 26.8%	91 73.2%
Q4 - 9:55	PHI	Williams 29' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS)	89 32.1%	89 67.9%
Q4 - 10:13	SAS	Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Mason Jr. 2 AST)	86 22.5%	89 77.5%
Q4 - 10:29	PHI	Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS)	86 31.5%	86 68.5%
Q4 - 10:46	SAS	Bowen 9' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bonner 3 AST)	83 22.5%	86 77.5%
Q4 - 11:10	PHI	Young 13' Jump Shot (19 PTS)	83 26.7%	84 73.3%
Q4 - 11:30	PHI	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	81 22.5%	84 77.5%
Q4 - 11:31	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 18' Pullup Jump Shot	81 21.5%	84 78.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	PHI		81 19.2%	84 80.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	Mason Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Thomas 2 AST)	81 22.5%	84 77.5%
Q3 - 0:24.0	PHI	Miller 2' Layup (24 PTS)	81 31.0%	81 69.0%
Q3 - 0:35.0	SAS	Finley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Hill 1 AST)	79 26.4%	81 73.6%
Q3 - 0:57.0	PHI	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)	79 35.6%	78 64.4%
Q3 - 0:57.0	PHI	MISS Miller Free Throw 1 of 2	78 34.7%	78 65.3%
Q3 - 1:02	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	78 34.4%	78 65.6%
Q3 - 1:04	SAS	MISS Ginobili 1' Layup	78 33.2%	78 66.8%
Q3 - 1:28	PHI	Miller 21' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	78 30.5%	78 69.5%
Q3 - 1:52	PHI	Ratliff REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	76 26.2%	78 73.8%
Q3 - 1:53	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	76 25.1%	78 74.9%
Q3 - 2:12	PHI	Miller 2' Layup (19 PTS)	76 22.5%	78 77.5%
Q3 - 2:17	PHI	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	74 19.4%	78 80.6%
Q3 - 2:19	SAS	MISS Parker 2' Layup	74 18.5%	78 81.5%
Q3 - 2:42	PHI	Miller 2' Driving Layup (17 PTS)	74 16.6%	78 83.4%
Q3 - 2:58	SAS	Ginobili Foul Turnover (P1.T10)	72 14.2%	78 85.8%
Q3 - 3:12	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	72 12.1%	78 87.9%
Q3 - 3:13	PHI	MISS Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot	72 12.7%	78 87.3%
Q3 - 3:28	PHI	Young REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	72 14.3%	78 85.7%
Q3 - 3:30	SAS	MISS Parker 22' Jump Shot	72 13.6%	78 86.4%
Q3 - 3:50	PHI	Young 2' Alley Oop Dunk (17 PTS) (Iguodala 5 AST)	72 12.1%	78 87.9%
Q3 - 3:59	PHI	Young REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	70 10.4%	78 89.6%
Q3 - 4:01	SAS	MISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot	70 10.2%	78 89.8%
Q3 - 4:18	PHI	Iguodala Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)	70 8.9%	78 91.1%
Q3 - 4:18	PHI	Iguodala Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)	69 8.7%	78 91.3%
Q3 - 4:18	SAS	Bowen Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	68 7.8%	78 92.2%
Q3 - 4:20	PHI	Ginobili STEAL (2 STL)	68 6.5%	78 93.5%
Q3 - 4:36	PHI	Ratliff REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	68 7.8%	78 92.2%
Q3 - 4:37	PHI	MISS Miller 13' Jump Shot	68 6.9%	78 93.1%
Q3 - 4:40	PHI	Green REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	68 7.8%	78 92.2%
Q3 - 4:42	PHI	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	68 6.8%	78 93.2%
Q3 - 5:02	PHI	Ratliff REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	68 8.1%	78 91.9%
Q3 - 5:03	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	68 7.9%	78 92.1%
Q3 - 5:03	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	68 7.2%	78 92.8%
Q3 - 5:10	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	68 6.8%	78 93.2%
Q3 - 5:12	PHI	Young REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	68 8.1%	78 91.9%
Q3 - 5:12	PHI	MISS Young 2' Layup	68 7.1%	78 92.9%
Q3 - 5:15	PHI	MISS Green 8' Jump Shot	68 7.1%	78 92.9%
Q3 - 5:17	PHI	Green REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	68 8.1%	78 91.9%
Q3 - 5:19	PHI	MISS Iguodala 28' 3PT Jump Shot	68 7.1%	78 92.9%
Q3 - 5:43	SAS	Ginobili 18' Step Back Jump Shot (17 PTS)	68 8.0%	78 92.0%
Q3 - 6:02	PHI	Bowen STEAL (1 STL)	68 9.5%	76 90.5%
Q3 - 6:10	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	68 11.0%	76 89.0%
Q3 - 6:11	SAS	MISS Bonner 26' 3PT Jump Shot	68 10.5%	76 89.5%
Q3 - 6:31	PHI	Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)	68 9.4%	76 90.6%
Q3 - 6:31	PHI	Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)	67 9.2%	76 90.8%
Q3 - 6:48	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	66 8.2%	76 91.8%
Q3 - 6:48	SAS	Ginobili 2' Layup (15 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	66 8.2%	76 91.8%
Q3 - 6:51	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	66 10.5%	74 89.5%
Q3 - 7:13	PHI	Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS)	66 9.7%	74 90.3%
Q3 - 7:38	PHI	Dalembert REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	63 7.4%	74 92.6%
Q3 - 7:38	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	63 7.2%	74 92.8%
Q3 - 7:38	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)	63 6.6%	74 93.4%
Q3 - 7:56	PHI	Young Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)	63 7.3%	73 92.7%
Q3 - 7:56	PHI	Young Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)	62 7.1%	73 92.9%
Q3 - 8:01	PHI	Dalembert REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	61 6.6%	73 93.4%
Q3 - 8:02	SAS	MISS Finley 20' Jump Shot	61 6.3%	73 93.7%
Q3 - 8:11	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	61 5.6%	73 94.4%
Q3 - 8:12	PHI	MISS Green 26' 3PT Jump Shot	61 5.9%	73 94.1%
Q3 - 8:25	PHI	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	61 6.5%	73 93.5%
Q3 - 8:26	SAS	MISS Parker 3PT Jump Shot	61 6.2%	73 93.8%
Q3 - 8:41	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	61 5.6%	73 94.4%
Q3 - 8:42	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	61 6.2%	73 93.8%
Q3 - 9:02	PHI	Iguodala Dunk (19 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	61 5.8%	73 94.2%
Q3 - 9:08	SAS	Parker Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T8)	59 5.1%	73 94.9%
Q3 - 9:18	PHI	Green 1' Layup (2 PTS)	59 4.4%	73 95.6%
Q3 - 9:31	SAS	Finley 27' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Parker 9 AST)	57 3.8%	73 96.2%
Q3 - 9:34	PHI	Bonner STEAL (1 STL)	57 5.0%	70 95.0%
Q3 - 9:42	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	57 5.8%	70 94.2%
Q3 - 9:44	PHI	Finley BLOCK (1 BLK)	57 5.2%	70 94.8%
Q3 - 9:48	PHI	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	57 5.8%	70 94.2%
Q3 - 9:49	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	57 5.0%	70 95.0%
Q3 - 9:49	SAS	MISS Bonner Layup	57 5.5%	70 94.5%
Q3 - 9:52	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	57 5.5%	70 94.5%
Q3 - 10:12	PHI	Iguodala Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)	57 5.2%	70 94.8%
Q3 - 10:29	SAS	Duncan 3' Finger Roll Layup (23 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	54 4.0%	70 96.0%
Q3 - 10:51	PHI	Miller 16' Turnaround Fadeaway (10 PTS)	54 4.6%	68 95.4%
Q3 - 11:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	52 4.2%	68 95.8%
Q3 - 11:15	SAS	Duncan 1' Tip Shot (21 PTS)	52 4.2%	68 95.8%
Q3 - 11:16	SAS	MISS Bonner 3' Running Layup	52 5.2%	66 94.8%
Q3 - 11:42	PHI	Young 5' Turnaround Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Iguodala 4 AST)	52 4.7%	66 95.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	PHI		50 4.2%	66 95.8%
Q2 - 0:02.0	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (19 PTS)	50 4.3%	66 95.7%
Q2 - 0:13.0	PHI	Miller 1' Layup (8 PTS)	50 5.8%	63 94.2%
Q2 - 0:32.0	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (11 PTS)	48 4.9%	63 95.1%
Q2 - 0:44.0	PHI	76ers Turnover: Bad Pass (T#4)	48 5.8%	61 94.2%
Q2 - 1:08	SAS	Ginobili 1' Driving Layup (13 PTS)	48 6.5%	61 93.5%
Q2 - 1:14	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	48 7.6%	59 92.4%
Q2 - 1:15	SAS	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	48 8.1%	59 91.9%
Q2 - 1:31	PHI	Speights Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	48 7.6%	59 92.4%
Q2 - 1:31	PHI	Speights Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	47 7.4%	59 92.6%
Q2 - 1:32	PHI	Speights REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	46 6.5%	59 93.5%
Q2 - 1:33	PHI	MISS Young 8' Jump Shot	46 6.1%	59 93.9%
Q2 - 1:56	SAS	Ginobili 4' Running Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	46 6.5%	59 93.5%
Q2 - 1:59	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	46 7.6%	57 92.4%
Q2 - 2:01	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	46 8.2%	57 91.8%
Q2 - 2:18	PHI	Speights 3' Layup (6 PTS) (Iguodala 3 AST)	46 7.6%	57 92.4%
Q2 - 2:36	SAS	Finley Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T7)	44 6.7%	57 93.3%
Q2 - 2:49	SAS	SPURS Rebound	44 6.0%	57 94.0%
Q2 - 2:49	PHI	Ginobili BLOCK (1 BLK)	44 6.2%	57 93.8%
Q2 - 3:04	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (16 PTS)	44 6.9%	57 93.1%
Q2 - 3:15	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	44 7.6%	55 92.4%
Q2 - 3:17	SAS	MISS Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot	44 8.3%	55 91.7%
Q2 - 3:37	PHI	Miller 3' Layup (6 PTS)	44 7.6%	55 92.4%
Q2 - 3:55	PHI	Speights REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	42 6.9%	55 93.1%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	42 6.8%	55 93.2%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)	42 6.3%	55 93.7%
Q2 - 4:14	SAS	SPURS Rebound	42 6.9%	54 93.1%
Q2 - 4:15	PHI	Thomas BLOCK (1 BLK)	42 7.2%	54 92.8%
Q2 - 4:34	PHI	Evans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	42 7.8%	54 92.2%
Q2 - 4:36	SAS	MISS Thomas 1' Layup	42 7.5%	54 92.5%
Q2 - 4:54	PHI	Evans Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	42 6.9%	54 93.1%
Q2 - 4:54	PHI	Evans Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	41 6.6%	54 93.4%
Q2 - 5:09	SAS	Parker 20' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	40 6.4%	54 93.6%
Q2 - 5:28	PHI	Young 4' Driving Jump Shot (11 PTS)	40 7.2%	52 92.8%
Q2 - 5:48	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (13 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)	38 6.4%	52 93.6%
Q2 - 5:56	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	38 7.1%	50 92.9%
Q2 - 5:58	PHI	MISS Speights 12' Jump Shot	38 7.4%	50 92.6%
Q2 - 6:08	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#6)	38 8.3%	50 91.7%
Q2 - 6:36	PHI	Speights 13' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Williams 4 AST)	38 7.3%	50 92.7%
Q2 - 6:49	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	36 6.7%	50 93.3%
Q2 - 6:56	PHI	Ginobili STEAL (1 STL)	36 8.1%	47 91.9%
Q2 - 7:07	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (7 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	36 9.2%	47 90.8%
Q2 - 7:18	PHI	Williams 18' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	36 10.1%	45 89.9%
Q2 - 7:30	PHI	76ers Rebound	34 9.2%	45 90.8%
Q2 - 7:30	SAS	MISS Hill 3PT Jump Shot	34 8.9%	45 91.1%
Q2 - 7:52	PHI	Speights REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	34 8.2%	45 91.8%
Q2 - 7:52	PHI	Speights 2' Layup (2 PTS)	34 8.2%	45 91.8%
Q2 - 7:54	PHI	Speights REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	32 7.5%	45 92.5%
Q2 - 7:54	PHI	MISS Speights 3' Layup	32 6.9%	45 93.1%
Q2 - 7:55	PHI	MISS Speights 2' Running Layup	32 6.9%	45 93.1%
Q2 - 8:00	SAS	Hill Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	32 7.5%	45 92.5%
Q2 - 8:21	PHI	Iguodala Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)	32 6.9%	45 93.1%
Q2 - 8:24	PHI	Speights REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	29 5.6%	45 94.4%
Q2 - 8:26	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot	29 5.5%	45 94.5%
Q2 - 8:46	PHI	Williams 13' Step Back Jump Shot (3 PTS)	29 5.1%	45 94.9%
Q2 - 9:03	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Bonner 2 AST)	27 4.7%	45 95.3%
Q2 - 9:23	PHI	Iguodala 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	27 5.7%	42 94.3%
Q2 - 9:38	PHI	Ivey REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 5.2%	42 94.8%
Q2 - 9:40	SAS	MISS Tolliver 3PT Jump Shot	25 5.0%	42 95.0%
Q2 - 9:56	PHI	Iguodala 17' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)	25 4.7%	42 95.3%
Q2 - 10:18	PHI	Speights REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	23 4.4%	42 95.6%
Q2 - 10:20	SAS	MISS Finley 18' Jump Shot	23 4.3%	42 95.7%
Q2 - 10:33	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	23 4.0%	42 96.0%
Q2 - 10:34	PHI	MISS Evans 3' Layup	23 4.1%	42 95.9%
Q2 - 10:55	SAS	Finley 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Tolliver 2 AST)	23 4.4%	42 95.6%
Q2 - 11:15	PHI	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	23 5.1%	40 94.9%
Q2 - 11:15	PHI	MISS Williams Free Throw 1 of 2	22 5.0%	40 95.0%
Q2 - 11:19	SAS	Tolliver Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	22 5.1%	40 94.9%
Q2 - 11:26	PHI	Iguodala Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	22 4.7%	40 95.3%
Q2 - 11:30	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	19 3.8%	40 96.2%
Q2 - 11:32	SAS	MISS Ginobili 13' Fadeaway Jumper	19 3.7%	40 96.3%
Q2 - 11:45	PHI	Speights Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	19 3.5%	40 96.5%
Q2 - 12:00	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw Technical	19 3.8%	40 96.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	PHI		19 3.8%	40 96.2%
Q1 - 0:01.0	SAS	Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Tolliver 1 AST)	19 4.0%	40 96.0%
Q1 - 0:21.0	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 4.9%	37 95.1%
Q1 - 0:22.0	PHI	MISS Young 16' Jump Shot	19 5.0%	37 95.0%
Q1 - 0:35.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS)	19 5.3%	37 94.7%
Q1 - 0:47.0	PHI	Young 3' Driving Bank Hook Shot (9 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	19 6.5%	34 93.5%
Q1 - 0:56.0	SAS	Parker Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T3)	17 5.8%	34 94.2%
Q1 - 1:04	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 5.7%	34 94.3%
Q1 - 1:06	PHI	MISS Williams 3' Layup	17 5.8%	34 94.2%
Q1 - 1:13	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	17 6.1%	34 93.9%
Q1 - 1:14	SAS	MISS Tolliver 22' Jump Shot	17 6.0%	34 94.0%
Q1 - 1:28	SAS	Tolliver REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 5.7%	34 94.3%
Q1 - 1:30	PHI	MISS Young 1' Layup	17 5.8%	34 94.2%
Q1 - 1:42	SAS	Parker 2' Driving Layup (5 PTS)	17 6.1%	34 93.9%
Q1 - 1:56	SAS	SPURS Rebound	17 6.8%	32 93.2%
Q1 - 1:57	PHI	MISS Young 15' Jump Shot	17 6.9%	32 93.1%
Q1 - 2:15	SAS	Parker 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	17 7.5%	32 92.5%
Q1 - 2:36	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	17 9.1%	29 90.9%
Q1 - 2:37	PHI	Young REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	17 9.7%	29 90.3%
Q1 - 2:37	PHI	MISS Young 2' Tip Shot	17 9.2%	29 90.8%
Q1 - 2:39	PHI	MISS Dalembert 3' Layup	17 9.2%	29 90.8%
Q1 - 2:41	PHI	Dalembert REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	17 9.7%	29 90.3%
Q1 - 2:43	PHI	MISS Iguodala 24' 3PT Jump Shot	17 9.2%	29 90.8%
Q1 - 3:10	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Mason Jr. 1 AST)	17 9.7%	29 90.3%
Q1 - 3:22	PHI	Miller 1' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Iguodala 2 AST)	17 11.5%	26 88.5%
Q1 - 3:41	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Thomas 1 AST)	15 10.6%	26 89.4%
Q1 - 4:05	PHI	Young REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	15 12.4%	23 87.6%
Q1 - 4:05	PHI	Young 1' Layup (7 PTS)	15 12.4%	23 87.6%
Q1 - 4:08	PHI	MISS Green 1' Driving Layup	13 10.9%	23 89.1%
Q1 - 4:10	PHI	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 11.5%	23 88.5%
Q1 - 4:12	SAS	MISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	13 11.2%	23 88.8%
Q1 - 4:21	PHI	Iguodala 2' Layup (4 PTS)	13 10.6%	23 89.4%
Q1 - 4:26	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	11 9.8%	23 90.2%
Q1 - 4:28	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot	11 9.6%	23 90.4%
Q1 - 4:44	PHI	Miller 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	11 9.0%	23 91.0%
Q1 - 4:58	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (11 PTS)	9 8.4%	23 91.6%
Q1 - 5:18	PHI	Iguodala 1' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	9 9.3%	21 90.7%
Q1 - 5:38	SAS	Bonner 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	7 8.7%	21 91.3%
Q1 - 5:46	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 10.0%	18 90.0%
Q1 - 5:47	PHI	MISS Young 24' 3PT Jump Shot	7 10.3%	18 89.7%
Q1 - 6:03	SAS	Mason Jr. Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T2)	7 10.8%	18 89.2%
Q1 - 6:16	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	7 10.0%	18 90.0%
Q1 - 6:18	PHI	MISS Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot	7 10.3%	18 89.7%
Q1 - 6:29	SAS	Parker Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	7 10.9%	18 89.1%
Q1 - 6:49	PHI	Young 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Green 2 AST)	7 10.0%	18 90.0%
Q1 - 7:07	SAS	Duncan 13' Jump Bank Shot (9 PTS)	4 8.5%	18 91.5%
Q1 - 7:24	PHI	Iguodala Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	4 9.1%	16 90.9%
Q1 - 7:46	SAS	Duncan 3' Layup (7 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	4 10.0%	16 90.0%
Q1 - 8:06	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	4 10.6%	14 89.4%
Q1 - 8:08	PHI	MISS Iguodala 16' Jump Shot	4 10.9%	14 89.1%
Q1 - 8:26	SAS	Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	4 11.4%	14 88.6%
Q1 - 8:33	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	4 13.3%	11 86.7%
Q1 - 8:34	PHI	MISS Green 17' Jump Shot	4 13.6%	11 86.4%
Q1 - 8:53	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	4 14.3%	11 85.7%
Q1 - 9:20	PHI	Young 6' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Iguodala 1 AST)	4 16.7%	8 83.3%
Q1 - 9:25	PHI	Iguodala REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 15.5%	8 84.5%
Q1 - 9:27	SAS	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	2 15.3%	8 84.7%
Q1 - 9:39	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 14.6%	8 85.4%
Q1 - 9:40	PHI	MISS Young 10' Jump Shot	2 14.9%	8 85.1%
Q1 - 10:00	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)	2 15.5%	8 84.5%
Q1 - 10:10	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 16.9%	6 83.1%
Q1 - 10:11	PHI	MISS Miller 6' Jump Shot	2 17.2%	6 82.8%
Q1 - 10:32	PHI	Green REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 18.0%	6 82.0%
Q1 - 10:33	SAS	MISS Parker 6' Jump Shot	2 17.7%	6 82.3%
Q1 - 10:40	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 16.9%	6 83.1%
Q1 - 10:41	PHI	MISS Dalembert 14' Jump Shot	2 17.2%	6 82.8%
Q1 - 11:00	SAS	Bonner 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	2 18.0%	6 82.0%
Q1 - 11:25	PHI	Dalembert 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Green 1 AST)	2 20.0%	3 80.0%
Q1 - 11:46	SAS	Bonner 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	0 19.0%	3 81.0%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Dalembert: Tip to	0 21.1%	0 78.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

PHI

1.15 57.6%

SAS

1.27 63.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

PHI

65%

SAS

70%

Midrange

PHI

48%

SAS

37%

3PT | Effective 3PT

PHI

6.0

33%

50%

SAS

22.5

58%

87%

Free Throws

PHI

84%

SAS

64%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

76ers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Miller	28	88%	14.0 / 16
A. Iguodala	25	78%	12.5 / 16
T. Young	19	56%	9.5 / 17
L. Williams	11	55%	5.5 / 10
M. Speights	10	63%	5.0 / 8
T. Ratliff	4	100%	2.0 / 2
R. Ivey	3	50%	1.5 / 3
W. Green	2	11%	1.0 / 9
S. Dalembert	2	33%	1.0 / 3
R. Evans	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Duncan	26	72%	13.0 / 18
M. Ginobili	21	75%	10.5 / 14
R. Mason Jr.	19	86%	9.5 / 11
T. Parker	15	44%	7.5 / 17
M. Finley	14	78%	7.0 / 9
M. Bonner	9	56%	4.5 / 8
B. Bowen	4	67%	2.0 / 3
K. Thomas	0	-	0.0 / 1
G. Hill	0	-	0.0 / 1
A. Tolliver	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

PHI

+11

-8

SAS

+10

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

PHI

1.15 57.6%

SAS

1.27 63.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	107.5 108.3	PHI 124.7 SAS 127.1 +2.4
Pace	90.3 88.7	PHI 89.7 +8.9 SAS 80.8
Avg. Poss. Time	15.9 16.5	PHI 16.1 +1.8 SAS 17.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.5% 51.3%	PHI 57.0% SAS 62.7% +5.7%
TO %	14.9% 12.4%	PHI 9.3% +3.9% SAS 13.2%
ORB %	31.4% 22.2%	PHI 33.3% +7.7% SAS 25.6%
FTrt	33.9 25.1	PHI 24.1 +6.4 SAS 17.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.0% 57.1%	PHI 44.2% SAS 64.3% +20.1%
STL %	8.9% 6.5%	PHI 5.9% SAS 7.1% +1.2%
BLK %	8.5% 6.1%	PHI 7.5% +1.5% SAS 6.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.1 and 2.1.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.6% 53.4%	PHI 57.6% SAS 63.5% +5.9%
Rim FG%	58.5% 58.8%	PHI 65.0% SAS 69.6% +4.6%
Mid FG%	39.3% 42.7%	PHI 48.1% +11.4% SAS 36.7%
3P %	31.8% 38.6%	PHI 33.3% SAS 57.7% +24.4%
FT %	74.5% 76.2%	PHI 84.2% +19.9% SAS 64.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	40.7% 30.3%	PHI 50.6% +21.5% SAS 29.1%
Mid Att. %	42.9% 44.9%	PHI 34.2% +3.8% SAS 38.0%
3P Att. %	16.4% 24.8%	PHI 15.2% SAS 32.9% +17.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.7 and 2.7.

Game Totals	PHI	SAS
Possessions	85	85
Possession Minutes	22.8	25.3
Points	106	108
Rebounds	40	32
Assists	19	27
Steals	5	6
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	8 (1)	12 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (0)	10 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (1)	22 (3)
Field Goals	43-79	42-79
At-the-Rim FG	26-40	16-23
Midrange FG	13-27	11-30
2-Point FG	39-67	27-53
3-Point FG	4-12	15-26
Free Throws	16-19	9-14
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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18 Philadelphia 76ers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andre Iguodala F · 6'6" 215 · 25	41.1	25	78%	8	8	1	0	3	1	1	7	5-5	100%	10-13	77%	0-2	0%
Thaddeus Young F · 6'8" 230 · 21	37.6	19	56%	5	0	0	0	1	1	3	2	2-2	100%	7-14	50%	1-2	50%
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 33	36.6	28	88%	6	3	1	0	1	2	0	6	3-4	75%	11-13	85%	1-1	100%
Willie Green G · 6'3" 205 · 27	21.6	2	11%	3	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	1-6	17%	0-3	0%
Samuel Dalembert C · 6'11" 255 · 29	16.4	2	33%	3	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Lou Williams G · 6'1" 175 · 22	26.7	11	55%	3	6	2	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-3	67%
Royal Ivey G · 6'4" 200 · 27	20.3	3	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Marreese Speights F-C · 6'10" 255 · 21	18.4	10	63%	6	0	0	0	1	3	3	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Theo Ratliff C · 6'10" 235 · 36	13.2	4	100%	4	0	1	2	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Reggie Evans C-F · 6'8" 245 · 29	8.1	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Kareem Rush G · 6'6" 215 · 28
Donyell Marshall F · 6'9" 245 · 36
Elton Brand #42 · F · 6'9" 254 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jason Smith #14 · F-C · 7'0" 240 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	58%	40	19	5	4	8	0	11	29	16-19	84%	39-67	58%	4-12	33%

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18 Philadelphia 76ers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andre Iguodala F · 6'6" 215 · 25	41.1	25	78%	8	8	1	0	3	1	1	7	5-5	100%	10-13	77%	0-2	0%
Thaddeus Young F · 6'8" 230 · 21	37.6	19	56%	5	0	0	0	1	1	3	2	2-2	100%	7-14	50%	1-2	50%
Andre Miller G · 6'3" 200 · 33	36.6	28	88%	6	3	1	0	1	2	0	6	3-4	75%	11-13	85%	1-1	100%
Willie Green G · 6'3" 205 · 27	21.6	2	11%	3	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	1-6	17%	0-3	0%
Samuel Dalembert C · 6'11" 255 · 29	16.4	2	33%	3	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Lou Williams G · 6'1" 175 · 22	26.7	11	55%	3	6	2	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-3	67%
Royal Ivey G · 6'4" 200 · 27	20.3	3	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Marreese Speights F-C · 6'10" 255 · 21	18.4	10	63%	6	0	0	0	1	3	3	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Theo Ratliff C · 6'10" 235 · 36	13.2	4	100%	4	0	1	2	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Reggie Evans C-F · 6'8" 245 · 29	8.1	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Kareem Rush G · 6'6" 215 · 28
Donyell Marshall F · 6'9" 245 · 36
Elton Brand #42 · F · 6'9" 254 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jason Smith #14 · F-C · 7'0" 240 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	58%	40	19	5	4	8	0	11	29	16-19	84%	39-67	58%	4-12	33%

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6 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 27	38.3	15	44%	3	10	0	0	4	0	1	2	0-0	-	6-15	40%	1-2	50%
Michael Finley F · 6'7" 225 · 36	34.7	14	78%	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-6	67%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 33	34.4	26	72%	12	3	0	1	2	3	5	7	4-8	50%	11-15	73%	0-0	-
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 28	32.4	19	86%	2	3	0	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	5-5	100%
Matt Bonner C · 6'10" 235 · 29	27.8	9	56%	6	3	1	0	0	3	2	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	3-5	60%
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 31	28.6	21	75%	3	2	3	1	1	3	1	2	3-4	75%	6-8	75%	2-5	40%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 38	17.7	4	67%	1	0	2	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36	14.5	0	0%	2	2	0	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 23	6.4	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Anthony Tolliver F · 6'8" 240 · 24	5.2	0	0%	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 34
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jacque Vaughn #11 · G · 6'1" 190 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Malik Hairston #1 · G · 6'6" 220 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	64%	32	27	6	4	12	0	10	22	9-14	64%	27-53	51%	15-26	58%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE