Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	5	Nuggets	38%	95	96
	10	Rockets	62%	99	108

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DEN	110.3	87	100.0
HOU	124.1	87	77.0

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+17

-13

HOU

+12

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.05 52.7%

HOU

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	HOU
Q4 - 0:00.0	HOU		96 0%	108 100%
Q4 - 0:10.0	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	96 0.1%	108 99.9%
Q4 - 0:11.0	DEN	MISS Carter 19' Jump Shot	96 0.1%	108 99.9%
Q4 - 0:32.0	HOU	McGrady 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Brooks 6 AST)	96 0.1%	108 99.9%
Q4 - 0:53.0	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (22 PTS)	96 0.2%	105 99.8%
Q4 - 1:13	HOU	McGrady Driving Layup (17 PTS)	94 0.2%	105 99.8%
Q4 - 1:34	DEN	Carter 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Smith 4 AST)	94 0.6%	103 99.4%
Q4 - 1:50	HOU	Brooks Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	92 0.6%	103 99.4%
Q4 - 1:50	HOU	Brooks Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	92 0.6%	102 99.4%
Q4 - 2:16	DEN	Billups Driving Layup (8 PTS)	92 0.7%	101 99.3%
Q4 - 2:29	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:6 Def:1)	90 0.5%	101 99.5%
Q4 - 2:30	DEN	MISS Anthony Tip Shot	90 0.3%	101 99.7%
Q4 - 2:30	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	90 0.5%	101 99.5%
Q4 - 2:31	DEN	MISS Anthony 6' Jump Shot	90 0.3%	101 99.7%
Q4 - 2:44	HOU	Yao Free Throw 2 of 2 (32 PTS)	90 0.5%	101 99.5%
Q4 - 2:44	HOU	Yao Free Throw 1 of 2 (31 PTS)	90 0.6%	100 99.4%
Q4 - 3:06	HOU	World Peace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	90 1.1%	99 98.9%
Q4 - 3:07	DEN	MISS Smith Driving Layup	90 1.3%	99 98.7%
Q4 - 3:15	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	90 1.9%	99 98.1%
Q4 - 3:16	HOU	MISS McGrady 15' Jump Shot	90 1.6%	99 98.4%
Q4 - 3:37	DEN	Smith Driving Dunk (17 PTS)	90 2.3%	99 97.7%
Q4 - 3:50	HOU	World Peace 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS)	88 1.6%	99 98.4%
Q4 - 4:12	HOU	Landry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	88 3.1%	96 96.9%
Q4 - 4:15	DEN	MISS Anthony 8' Jump Shot	88 3.5%	96 96.5%
Q4 - 4:22	DEN	Carter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	88 4.6%	96 95.4%
Q4 - 4:23	HOU	MISS World Peace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	88 4.0%	96 96.0%
Q4 - 4:43	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	88 3.0%	96 97.0%
Q4 - 4:45	DEN	MISS Anthony 24' 3PT Jump Shot	88 3.4%	96 96.6%
Q4 - 4:56	HOU	Brooks Driving Layup (16 PTS)	88 4.5%	96 95.5%
Q4 - 5:19	DEN	Anthony 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Carter 4 AST)	88 8.6%	94 91.4%
Q4 - 5:25	HOU	Brooks Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13)	85 4.6%	94 95.4%
Q4 - 5:42	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:12)	85 3.3%	94 96.7%
Q4 - 5:43	DEN	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	85 3.6%	94 96.4%
Q4 - 5:54	HOU	Yao 5' Hook Shot (30 PTS) (World Peace 1 AST)	85 4.6%	94 95.4%
Q4 - 6:09	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:11)	85 7.9%	92 92.1%
Q4 - 6:10	DEN	MISS Billups 10' Jump Shot	85 8.6%	92 91.4%
Q4 - 6:29	HOU	World Peace Layup (17 PTS)	85 10.4%	92 89.6%
Q4 - 6:34	HOU	World Peace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	85 13.4%	90 86.6%
Q4 - 6:35	HOU	MISS McGrady 26' 3PT Jump Shot	85 16.2%	90 83.8%
Q4 - 6:59	HOU	Landry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	85 13.4%	90 86.6%
Q4 - 7:00	DEN	MISS Nene 13' Jump Shot	85 14.6%	90 85.4%
Q4 - 7:06	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	85 18.9%	90 81.1%
Q4 - 7:08	DEN	McGrady BLOCK (3 BLK)	85 15.9%	90 84.1%
Q4 - 7:31	HOU	ROCKETS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#12)	85 18.8%	90 81.2%
Q4 - 7:55	DEN	Andersen Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	85 14.6%	90 85.4%
Q4 - 7:55	DEN	MISS Andersen Free Throw 1 of 2	84 13.6%	90 86.4%
Q4 - 8:14	HOU	Brooks Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)	84 16.1%	90 83.9%
Q4 - 8:30	HOU	ROCKETS Rebound	84 13.0%	90 87.0%
Q4 - 8:31	DEN	MISS Carter 26' 3PT Jump Shot	84 13.9%	90 86.1%
Q4 - 8:51	HOU	World Peace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Battier 5 AST)	84 16.0%	90 84.0%
Q4 - 9:13	HOU	World Peace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	84 25.7%	87 74.3%
Q4 - 9:15	DEN	MISS Smith 26' 3PT Jump Shot	84 27.0%	87 73.0%
Q4 - 9:22	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	84 30.3%	87 69.7%
Q4 - 9:23	HOU	MISS Brooks Driving Reverse Layup	84 28.8%	87 71.2%
Q4 - 9:44	DEN	Carter 8' Running Jump Shot (5 PTS)	84 25.6%	87 74.4%
Q4 - 10:00	HOU	World Peace 14' Pullup Jump Shot (12 PTS)	82 21.1%	87 78.9%
Q4 - 10:20	DEN	Kleiza 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Carter 3 AST)	82 26.2%	85 73.8%
Q4 - 10:38	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	79 18.3%	85 81.7%
Q4 - 10:38	HOU	MISS Battier 7' Turnaround Hook Shot	79 17.3%	85 82.7%
Q4 - 10:54	DEN	Smith Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	79 15.2%	85 84.8%
Q4 - 11:04	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	79 19.1%	85 80.9%
Q4 - 11:05	HOU	MISS Brooks 25' 3PT Jump Shot	79 18.2%	85 81.8%
Q4 - 11:21	HOU	Brooks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	79 16.2%	85 83.8%
Q4 - 11:22	DEN	MISS Anthony 15' Jump Shot	79 17.0%	85 83.0%
Q4 - 11:37	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	79 19.1%	85 80.9%
Q4 - 11:38	HOU	MISS Battier 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot	79 18.1%	85 81.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN		79 16.1%	85 83.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	79 19.0%	85 81.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	MISS Billups 40' 3PT Jump Shot	79 16.9%	85 83.1%
Q3 - 0:13.0	HOU	Landry Foul Turnover (P1.T10)	79 19.7%	85 80.3%
Q3 - 0:30.0	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)	79 17.0%	85 83.0%
Q3 - 0:32.0	HOU	MISS World Peace 3PT Jump Shot	79 18.8%	85 81.2%
Q3 - 0:46.0	HOU	Landry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	79 17.0%	85 83.0%
Q3 - 0:47.0	HOU	MISS Brooks 24' 3PT Jump Shot	79 18.8%	85 81.2%
Q3 - 0:56.0	HOU	ROCKETS Rebound	79 17.0%	85 83.0%
Q3 - 0:57.0	HOU	MISS Brooks 5' Floating Jump Shot	79 18.8%	85 81.2%
Q3 - 1:10	HOU	Landry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	79 17.3%	85 82.7%
Q3 - 1:11	DEN	MISS Andersen 6' Jump Shot	79 18.1%	85 81.9%
Q3 - 1:19	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	79 20.1%	85 79.9%
Q3 - 1:21	HOU	MISS McGrady 18' Jump Shot	79 19.2%	85 80.8%
Q3 - 1:39	DEN	Andersen 14' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)	79 17.3%	85 82.7%
Q3 - 1:58	HOU	Yao 6' Hook Shot (28 PTS) (McGrady 10 AST)	77 14.5%	85 85.5%
Q3 - 2:14	HOU	World Peace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	77 17.8%	83 82.2%
Q3 - 2:14	DEN	MISS Smith Free Throw 2 of 2	77 18.2%	83 81.8%
Q3 - 2:14	DEN	MISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 2	77 20.1%	83 79.9%
Q3 - 2:31	HOU	McGrady 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	77 20.7%	83 79.3%
Q3 - 2:44	DEN	Smith 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Billups 6 AST)	77 24.0%	81 76.0%
Q3 - 2:57	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	74 17.7%	81 82.3%
Q3 - 2:59	DEN	MISS Smith Driving Layup	74 15.9%	81 84.1%
Q3 - 3:10	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	74 18.4%	81 81.6%
Q3 - 3:11	HOU	MISS Brooks 25' 3PT Jump Shot	74 17.5%	81 82.5%
Q3 - 3:19	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:10)	74 15.7%	81 84.3%
Q3 - 3:20	DEN	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	74 16.5%	81 83.5%
Q3 - 3:29	HOU	Yao Layup (26 PTS) (McGrady 9 AST)	74 18.4%	81 81.6%
Q3 - 3:44	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)	74 21.0%	79 79.0%
Q3 - 3:48	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	71 15.8%	79 84.2%
Q3 - 3:50	HOU	MISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot	71 15.1%	79 84.9%
Q3 - 3:59	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9)	71 13.4%	79 86.6%
Q3 - 4:00	DEN	MISS Billups 17' Jump Shot	71 14.1%	79 85.9%
Q3 - 4:09	HOU	Brooks 6' Running Jump Shot (14 PTS)	71 16.4%	79 83.6%
Q3 - 4:19	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	71 18.5%	77 81.5%
Q3 - 4:20	DEN	MISS Martin 17' Jump Shot	71 19.4%	77 80.6%
Q3 - 4:40	HOU	Yao Free Throw 1 of 1 (24 PTS)	71 21.7%	77 78.3%
Q3 - 4:50	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:5 Def:1)	71 27.7%	74 72.3%
Q3 - 4:50	DEN	Nene Tip Shot (10 PTS)	71 27.7%	74 72.3%
Q3 - 4:51	DEN	MISS Anthony 4' Jump Shot	69 22.3%	74 77.7%
Q3 - 5:13	HOU	Brooks 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS)	69 24.9%	74 75.1%
Q3 - 5:18	HOU	Scola REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	69 31.3%	71 68.7%
Q3 - 5:19	DEN	MISS Smith 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 32.5%	71 67.5%
Q3 - 5:34	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	69 35.5%	71 64.5%
Q3 - 5:34	HOU	MISS McGrady Free Throw 2 of 2	69 34.9%	71 65.1%
Q3 - 5:34	HOU	McGrady Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	69 32.5%	71 67.5%
Q3 - 5:48	DEN	Anthony Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	69 35.0%	70 65.0%
Q3 - 5:58	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:4 Def:0)	69 39.4%	70 60.6%
Q3 - 5:59	DEN	MISS Billups 14' Jump Shot	69 36.3%	70 63.7%
Q3 - 6:13	HOU	Yao Layup (21 PTS) (McGrady 8 AST)	69 39.0%	70 61.0%
Q3 - 6:32	DEN	Martin 6' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	69 42.6%	68 57.4%
Q3 - 6:48	HOU	Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (McGrady 7 AST)	67 39.0%	68 61.0%
Q3 - 7:02	HOU	ROCKETS Rebound	67 45.9%	65 54.1%
Q3 - 7:03	DEN	MISS Nene Layup	67 47.1%	65 52.9%
Q3 - 7:09	HOU	McGrady Driving Layup (12 PTS)	67 49.9%	65 50.1%
Q3 - 7:17	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	67 53.6%	63 46.4%
Q3 - 7:18	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	67 54.8%	63 45.2%
Q3 - 7:31	HOU	Battier 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (McGrady 6 AST)	67 57.6%	63 42.4%
Q3 - 8:02	DEN	Jones Dunk (2 PTS) (Nene 1 AST)	67 63.9%	60 36.1%
Q3 - 8:06	HOU	McGrady Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9)	65 60.7%	60 39.3%
Q3 - 8:19	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	65 56.7%	60 43.3%
Q3 - 8:21	DEN	McGrady BLOCK (2 BLK)	65 57.9%	60 42.1%
Q3 - 8:37	HOU	Yao 5' Hook Shot (19 PTS)	65 60.7%	60 39.3%
Q3 - 8:57	DEN	Martin Traveling Turnover (P2.T11)	65 63.9%	58 36.1%
Q3 - 9:04	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	65 66.8%	58 33.2%
Q3 - 9:05	HOU	MISS McGrady 16' Jump Shot	65 65.8%	58 34.2%
Q3 - 9:22	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	65 63.4%	58 36.6%
Q3 - 9:22	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	64 62.8%	58 37.2%
Q3 - 9:29	DEN	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	63 60.0%	58 40.0%
Q3 - 9:30	DEN	MISS Martin 21' Jump Shot	63 57.5%	58 42.5%
Q3 - 9:44	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	63 60.0%	58 40.0%
Q3 - 9:45	DEN	McGrady BLOCK (1 BLK)	63 57.5%	58 42.5%
Q3 - 9:53	HOU	Yao 15' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Brooks 5 AST)	63 60.0%	58 40.0%
Q3 - 10:13	DEN	Anthony Foul Turnover (P2.T10)	63 62.4%	56 37.6%
Q3 - 10:31	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	63 65.8%	56 34.2%
Q3 - 10:32	HOU	MISS Yao 8' Hook Shot	63 64.8%	56 35.2%
Q3 - 10:56	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	63 62.5%	56 37.5%
Q3 - 10:57	DEN	MISS Nene 18' Jump Shot	63 63.5%	56 36.5%
Q3 - 11:16	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	63 65.0%	56 35.0%
Q3 - 11:17	HOU	MISS Yao 7' Hook Shot	63 63.9%	56 36.1%
Q3 - 11:43	DEN	Nene Layup (8 PTS)	63 61.6%	56 38.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	HOU		61 58.5%	56 41.5%
Q2 - 0:05.0	DEN	Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)	61 54.9%	56 45.1%
Q2 - 0:29.0	HOU	McGrady 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)	58 47.3%	56 52.7%
Q2 - 0:35.0	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	58 54.8%	53 45.2%
Q2 - 0:36.0	DEN	MISS Nene Dunk	58 55.6%	53 44.4%
Q2 - 0:52.0	HOU	Brooks Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	58 57.4%	53 42.6%
Q2 - 0:52.0	HOU	Brooks Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	58 57.8%	52 42.2%
Q2 - 0:54.0	DEN	Brooks STEAL (2 STL)	58 61.4%	51 38.6%
Q2 - 1:01	HOU	Brooks Driving Finger Roll Layup (7 PTS)	58 63.1%	51 36.9%
Q2 - 1:11	DEN	Anthony 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS)	58 66.8%	49 33.2%
Q2 - 1:26	HOU	Landry 9' Running Bank Shot (6 PTS) (McGrady 5 AST)	56 63.1%	49 36.9%
Q2 - 1:48	DEN	Smith Foul Turnover (P2.T8)	56 66.9%	47 33.1%
Q2 - 2:07	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	56 68.3%	47 31.7%
Q2 - 2:08	HOU	MISS Brooks Driving Layup	56 67.4%	47 32.6%
Q2 - 2:22	DEN	Billups Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	56 65.4%	47 34.6%
Q2 - 2:22	DEN	MISS Billups Free Throw 1 of 2	55 65.2%	47 34.8%
Q2 - 2:37	HOU	Yao Foul Turnover (P3.T8)	55 65.5%	47 34.5%
Q2 - 2:38	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	55 62.5%	47 37.5%
Q2 - 2:40	HOU	MISS McGrady 19' Jump Shot	55 64.6%	47 35.4%
Q2 - 2:52	DEN	Nene Traveling Turnover (P1.T7)	55 62.6%	47 37.4%
Q2 - 3:06	HOU	Yao Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)	55 65.0%	47 35.0%
Q2 - 3:23	DEN	Nene 14' Step Back Jump Shot (6 PTS)	55 61.7%	47 38.3%
Q2 - 3:39	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	53 59.2%	47 40.8%
Q2 - 3:39	HOU	MISS Yao Free Throw 2 of 2	53 58.7%	47 41.3%
Q2 - 3:39	HOU	Yao Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	53 56.5%	47 43.5%
Q2 - 3:58	DEN	Martin Traveling Turnover (P1.T6)	53 58.7%	46 41.3%
Q2 - 4:10	HOU	McGrady Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	53 61.2%	46 38.8%
Q2 - 4:12	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	53 58.0%	46 42.0%
Q2 - 4:13	HOU	MISS McGrady 20' Jump Shot	53 60.2%	46 39.8%
Q2 - 4:30	DEN	Smith Driving Layup (9 PTS)	53 58.1%	46 41.9%
Q2 - 4:35	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	51 55.3%	46 44.7%
Q2 - 4:36	DEN	MISS Kleiza 25' 3PT Jump Shot	51 53.0%	46 47.0%
Q2 - 4:53	HOU	McGrady 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Head 2 AST)	51 55.3%	46 44.7%
Q2 - 5:14	DEN	Anthony Layup (10 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	51 60.6%	43 39.4%
Q2 - 5:18	HOU	Yao Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	49 57.6%	43 42.4%
Q2 - 5:22	DEN	Yao STEAL (1 STL)	49 54.8%	43 45.2%
Q2 - 5:29	HOU	Yao 6' Hook Shot (14 PTS) (McGrady 4 AST)	49 57.6%	43 42.4%
Q2 - 5:46	DEN	Kleiza 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Anthony 3 AST)	49 60.6%	41 39.4%
Q2 - 6:02	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	46 54.4%	41 45.6%
Q2 - 6:03	HOU	MISS World Peace Free Throw 2 of 2	46 53.9%	41 46.1%
Q2 - 6:03	HOU	World Peace Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	46 52.2%	41 47.8%
Q2 - 6:16	DEN	Andersen Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	46 53.9%	40 46.1%
Q2 - 6:16	DEN	Andersen Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	45 53.1%	40 46.9%
Q2 - 6:32	HOU	Landry Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Battier 3 AST)	44 51.5%	40 48.5%
Q2 - 6:50	DEN	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	44 54.0%	38 46.0%
Q2 - 6:50	DEN	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	43 53.3%	38 46.7%
Q2 - 7:01	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	42 50.8%	38 49.2%
Q2 - 7:03	HOU	MISS Battier 17' Jump Shot	42 50.0%	38 50.0%
Q2 - 7:25	DEN	Carter 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Kleiza 2 AST)	42 47.9%	38 52.1%
Q2 - 7:29	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	39 42.4%	38 57.6%
Q2 - 7:30	DEN	MISS Nene 6' Jump Shot	39 40.5%	38 59.5%
Q2 - 7:48	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	39 42.5%	38 57.5%
Q2 - 7:50	DEN	MISS Smith 17' Jump Shot	39 40.5%	38 59.5%
Q2 - 8:01	DEN	Carter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	39 42.1%	38 57.9%
Q2 - 8:02	HOU	MISS World Peace 3PT Jump Shot	39 41.3%	38 58.7%
Q2 - 8:16	DEN	Kleiza Driving Layup (7 PTS)	39 39.5%	38 60.5%
Q2 - 8:30	HOU	World Peace 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)	37 36.8%	38 63.2%
Q2 - 8:44	DEN	Nene 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Kleiza 1 AST)	37 42.2%	35 57.8%
Q2 - 8:49	DEN	Carter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	35 39.4%	35 60.6%
Q2 - 8:50	DEN	Battier BLOCK (2 BLK)	35 37.7%	35 62.3%
Q2 - 9:00	HOU	Yao 4' Hook Shot (12 PTS) (Head 1 AST)	35 39.4%	35 60.6%
Q2 - 9:23	DEN	Kleiza Slam Dunk (5 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)	35 41.7%	33 58.3%
Q2 - 9:26	HOU	World Peace Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	33 39.1%	33 60.9%
Q2 - 9:45	DEN	Nene Slam Dunk (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	33 36.6%	33 63.4%
Q2 - 10:04	HOU	ROCKETS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	31 34.2%	33 65.8%
Q2 - 10:04	HOU	ROCKETS Rebound	31 31.9%	33 68.1%
Q2 - 10:05	HOU	MISS World Peace 24' 3PT Jump Shot	31 33.5%	33 66.5%
Q2 - 10:32	DEN	Billups 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS)	31 31.8%	33 68.2%
Q2 - 10:37	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	28 27.5%	33 72.5%
Q2 - 10:39	HOU	MISS World Peace 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 26.9%	33 73.1%
Q2 - 10:52	HOU	Hayes REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 25.4%	33 74.6%
Q2 - 10:53	DEN	MISS Kleiza 24' 3PT Jump Shot	28 26.0%	33 74.0%
Q2 - 11:08	HOU	World Peace Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	28 27.8%	33 72.2%
Q2 - 11:08	HOU	MISS World Peace Free Throw 1 of 2	28 28.2%	32 71.8%
Q2 - 11:30	DEN	Kleiza 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)	28 27.7%	32 72.3%
Q2 - 11:43	HOU	World Peace Layup (5 PTS) (Brooks 4 AST)	25 23.8%	32 76.2%
Q2 - 11:48	DEN	Brooks STEAL (1 STL)	25 25.7%	30 74.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	HOU		25 27.7%	30 72.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN	Andersen Putback Dunk (6 PTS)	25 25.7%	30 74.3%
Q1 - 0:01.0	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	23 23.8%	30 76.2%
Q1 - 0:01.0	DEN	MISS Smith Free Throw 2 of 2	23 22.7%	30 77.3%
Q1 - 0:01.0	DEN	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	23 23.9%	30 76.1%
Q1 - 0:14.0	HOU	Hayes Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	22 22.1%	30 77.9%
Q1 - 0:31.0	DEN	Andersen Slam Dunk (4 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)	22 20.8%	30 79.2%
Q1 - 0:41.0	HOU	Landry Layup (2 PTS) (McGrady 3 AST)	20 18.9%	30 81.1%
Q1 - 0:59.0	DEN	Andersen Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	20 20.8%	28 79.2%
Q1 - 0:59.0	DEN	Andersen Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	19 20.3%	28 79.7%
Q1 - 1:11	HOU	McGrady Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Brooks 3 AST)	18 19.3%	28 80.7%
Q1 - 1:17	DEN	McGrady STEAL (1 STL)	18 21.3%	26 78.7%
Q1 - 1:32	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	18 22.4%	26 77.6%
Q1 - 1:34	HOU	MISS McGrady 18' Jump Shot	18 22.1%	26 77.9%
Q1 - 1:47	DEN	World Peace STEAL (1 STL)	18 21.3%	26 78.7%
Q1 - 1:55	HOU	Brooks 15' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	18 22.4%	26 77.6%
Q1 - 2:01	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	18 24.9%	24 75.1%
Q1 - 2:02	DEN	MISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot	18 25.3%	24 74.7%
Q1 - 2:14	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	18 26.3%	24 73.7%
Q1 - 2:15	DEN	Yao BLOCK (2 BLK)	18 25.3%	24 74.7%
Q1 - 2:32	HOU	Yao 5' Hook Shot (10 PTS)	18 26.3%	24 73.7%
Q1 - 2:46	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	18 28.5%	22 71.5%
Q1 - 2:46	DEN	Smith Tip Shot (4 PTS)	18 28.5%	22 71.5%
Q1 - 2:48	DEN	MISS Nene 4' Hook Shot	16 25.3%	22 74.7%
Q1 - 3:08	HOU	World Peace 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Yao 1 AST)	16 26.5%	22 73.5%
Q1 - 3:27	DEN	Smith Driving Layup (2 PTS)	16 30.2%	19 69.8%
Q1 - 3:34	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 28.3%	19 71.7%
Q1 - 3:35	HOU	MISS Yao Tip Shot	14 27.7%	19 72.3%
Q1 - 3:36	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	14 26.5%	19 73.5%
Q1 - 3:37	HOU	MISS McGrady Layup	14 27.7%	19 72.3%
Q1 - 4:02	DEN	Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)	14 26.4%	19 73.6%
Q1 - 4:15	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	11 23.2%	19 76.8%
Q1 - 4:16	DEN	MISS Nene 20' Jump Shot	11 22.1%	19 77.9%
Q1 - 4:34	HOU	Scola Layup (4 PTS) (McGrady 2 AST)	11 23.2%	19 76.8%
Q1 - 4:51	DEN	Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)	11 24.8%	17 75.2%
Q1 - 5:10	HOU	Yao Dunk (8 PTS) (Brooks 2 AST)	8 22.1%	17 77.9%
Q1 - 5:12	HOU	Brooks REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	8 23.4%	15 76.6%
Q1 - 5:13	HOU	MISS Brooks 25' 3PT Jump Shot	8 24.6%	15 75.4%
Q1 - 5:52	DEN	Martin 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Anthony 2 AST)	8 23.4%	15 76.6%
Q1 - 6:11	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	6 22.0%	15 78.0%
Q1 - 6:11	HOU	MISS Yao 8' Hook Shot	6 21.5%	15 78.5%
Q1 - 6:31	HOU	Scola REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	6 20.5%	15 79.5%
Q1 - 6:32	DEN	MISS Nene 4' Hook Shot	6 21.0%	15 79.0%
Q1 - 6:46	HOU	McGrady Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	6 22.0%	15 78.0%
Q1 - 6:50	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	6 20.5%	15 79.5%
Q1 - 6:51	DEN	MISS Billups 15' Jump Shot	6 21.0%	15 79.0%
Q1 - 7:00	DEN	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 22.0%	15 78.0%
Q1 - 7:01	HOU	MISS Yao 7' Fadeaway Jumper	6 21.5%	15 78.5%
Q1 - 7:21	DEN	Anthony 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 20.4%	15 79.6%
Q1 - 7:38	HOU	McGrady 23' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Battier 2 AST)	4 19.2%	15 80.8%
Q1 - 7:45	DEN	Battier STEAL (1 STL)	4 20.4%	13 79.6%
Q1 - 7:53	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 21.9%	13 78.1%
Q1 - 7:54	HOU	MISS Yao 5' Hook Shot	4 21.5%	13 78.5%
Q1 - 8:11	DEN	Billups 13' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 20.4%	13 79.6%
Q1 - 8:18	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 19.1%	13 80.9%
Q1 - 8:20	HOU	MISS Battier 25' 3PT Jump Shot	2 18.7%	13 81.3%
Q1 - 8:26	HOU	Scola REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	2 17.8%	13 82.2%
Q1 - 8:28	HOU	MISS Scola Layup	2 18.7%	13 81.3%
Q1 - 8:43	HOU	Scola REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	2 17.8%	13 82.2%
Q1 - 8:44	HOU	MISS Scola 7' Hook Shot	2 18.7%	13 81.3%
Q1 - 8:53	HOU	Scola REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	2 17.8%	13 82.2%
Q1 - 8:55	DEN	Yao BLOCK (1 BLK)	2 18.2%	13 81.8%
Q1 - 9:12	HOU	Yao 4' Hook Shot (6 PTS)	2 19.9%	13 80.1%
Q1 - 9:15	HOU	Yao REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	2 21.3%	11 78.7%
Q1 - 9:16	HOU	MISS Scola 17' Jump Shot	2 22.1%	11 77.9%
Q1 - 9:27	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	2 21.3%	11 78.7%
Q1 - 9:28	DEN	MISS Jones Driving Layup	2 21.6%	11 78.4%
Q1 - 9:46	HOU	Scola 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Brooks 1 AST)	2 22.5%	11 77.5%
Q1 - 9:52	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	2 24.0%	9 76.0%
Q1 - 9:54	DEN	Battier BLOCK (1 BLK)	2 24.4%	9 75.6%
Q1 - 10:09	HOU	Brooks 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (McGrady 1 AST)	2 26.2%	9 73.8%
Q1 - 10:33	HOU	McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 29.0%	6 71.0%
Q1 - 10:34	DEN	MISS Anthony 19' Jump Shot	2 29.5%	6 70.5%
Q1 - 10:51	HOU	Yao Layup (4 PTS) (Battier 1 AST)	2 30.7%	6 69.3%
Q1 - 11:10	DEN	Martin Dunk (2 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	2 32.2%	4 67.8%
Q1 - 11:21	HOU	Yao Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	0 30.8%	4 69.2%
Q1 - 11:21	HOU	Yao Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	0 31.0%	3 69.0%
Q1 - 11:31	HOU	Scola REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 32.2%	2 67.8%
Q1 - 11:32	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	0 32.7%	2 67.3%
Q1 - 11:49	HOU	Battier 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Scola 1 AST)	0 33.8%	2 66.2%
Q1 - 12:00	HOU	Jump Ball Yao vs. Nene: Tip to Brooks	0 35.2%	0 64.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.05 52.7%

HOU

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

53%

HOU

75%

Midrange

DEN

36%

HOU

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

15.0

45%

68%

HOU

16.5

46%

69%

Free Throws

DEN

71%

HOU

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Anthony	22	55%	11.0 / 20
J. Smith	17	50%	8.5 / 17
L. Kleiza	13	93%	6.5 / 7
C. Andersen	11	79%	5.5 / 7
Nene	10	36%	5.0 / 14
C. Billups	8	36%	4.0 / 11
A. Carter	7	70%	3.5 / 5
K. Martin	6	50%	3.0 / 6
D. Jones	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
Yao	32	73%	16.0 / 22
T. McGrady	20	56%	10.0 / 18
M. World Peace	20	71%	10.0 / 14
A. Brooks	18	60%	9.0 / 15
S. Battier	8	57%	4.0 / 7
C. Landry	6	100%	3.0 / 3
L. Scola	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+17

-13

HOU

+12

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.05 52.7%

HOU

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	110.2 107.9	DEN 110.3 HOU 124.1 +13.8
Pace	94.5 90.7	DEN 100.0 +23.0 HOU 77.0
Avg. Poss. Time	14.7 16.2	DEN 14.4 +4.3 HOU 18.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.2% 50.1%	DEN 51.2% HOU 62.5% +11.3%
TO %	15.8% 14.6%	DEN 12.7% +0.8% HOU 13.5%
ORB %	27.5% 26.6%	DEN 36.4% +1.9% HOU 34.5%
FTrt	38.2 29.2	DEN 20.7 HOU 22.4 +1.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	59.5% 56.2%	DEN 54.1% HOU 61.9% +7.8%
STL %	9.1% 7.4%	DEN 5.7% HOU 6.9% +1.2%
BLK %	9.7% 6.5%	DEN 0.0% HOU 11.7% +11.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.55 and 2.55.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.8% 53.0%	DEN 52.7% HOU 60.7% +8.0%
Rim FG%	60.5% 55.5%	DEN 53.1% HOU 75.0% +21.9%
Mid FG%	38.7% 41.5%	DEN 35.7% HOU 41.7% +6.0%
3P %	37.1% 37.5%	DEN 45.5% HOU 45.8% +0.3%
FT %	76.0% 80.7%	DEN 70.6% HOU 76.5% +5.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	39.7% 34.8%	DEN 39.0% +2.2% HOU 36.8%
Mid Att. %	37.6% 39.8%	DEN 34.1% HOU 31.6% +2.6%
3P Att. %	22.7% 25.4%	DEN 26.8% HOU 31.6% +4.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	HOU
Possessions	87	87
Possession Minutes	20.9	27.1
Points	96	108
Rebounds	35	38
Assists	20	26
Steals	5	6
Blocks	0	7
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	11 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (1)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	19 (6)	28 (2)
Field Goals	37-82	42-76
At-the-Rim FG	17-32	21-28
Midrange FG	10-28	10-24
2-Point FG	27-60	31-52
3-Point FG	10-22	11-24
Free Throws	12-17	13-17
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 25	37.6	22	55%	2	3	1	0	3	1	1	1	3-3	100%	5-13	38%	3-6	50%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 32	35.4	8	36%	0	6	0	0	3	2	0	0	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Nene C · 6'11" 250 · 26	35.0	10	36%	7	1	1	0	1	5	6	1	0-0	-	5-14	36%	0-0	-
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 31	26.2	6	50%	8	0	0	0	2	3	2	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G · 6'6" 225 · 28	14.3	2	33%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 23	30.8	17	50%	5	4	2	0	3	2	2	3	3-6	50%	4-9	44%	2-5	40%
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 34	22.3	7	70%	3	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 24	21.4	13	93%	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-5	60%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 30	17.1	11	79%	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5-6	83%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 24
Chucky Atkins G · 5'11" 185 · 34
Sonny Weems #13 · G-F · 6'6" 205 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Cheikh Samb #35 · C · 7'1" 245 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Steven Hunter #45 · C · 7'0" 240 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	53%	35	20	5	0	13	0	16	19	12-17	71%	27-60	45%	10-22	45%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 25	37.6	22	55%	2	3	1	0	3	1	1	1	3-3	100%	5-13	38%	3-6	50%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 32	35.4	8	36%	0	6	0	0	3	2	0	0	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Nene C · 6'11" 250 · 26	35.0	10	36%	7	1	1	0	1	5	6	1	0-0	-	5-14	36%	0-0	-
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 31	26.2	6	50%	8	0	0	0	2	3	2	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G · 6'6" 225 · 28	14.3	2	33%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 23	30.8	17	50%	5	4	2	0	3	2	2	3	3-6	50%	4-9	44%	2-5	40%
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 34	22.3	7	70%	3	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 24	21.4	13	93%	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-5	60%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 30	17.1	11	79%	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5-6	83%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 24
Chucky Atkins G · 5'11" 185 · 34
Sonny Weems #13 · G-F · 6'6" 205 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Cheikh Samb #35 · C · 7'1" 245 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Steven Hunter #45 · C · 7'0" 240 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	53%	35	20	5	0	13	0	16	19	12-17	71%	27-60	45%	10-22	45%

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10 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Aaron Brooks G · 6'0" 161 · 24	42.3	18	60%	2	6	2	0	2	1	1	1	4-4	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Yao Ming C · 7'6" 310 · 28	37.4	32	73%	7	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	6-7	86%	13-19	68%	0-0	-
Tracy McGrady G · 6'8" 225 · 30	37.3	20	56%	14	10	1	3	3	3	2	12	1-2	50%	5-12	42%	3-5	60%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 30	34.0	8	57%	0	5	1	2	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Luis Scola F · 6'9" 241 · 29	24.6	4	40%	6	1	0	0	0	4	2	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Metta World Peace F · 6'7" 260 · 29	28.8	20	71%	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	3	2-4	50%	3-3	100%	4-9	44%
Carl Landry F · 6'9" 248 · 25	23.7	6	100%	4	0	0	0	1	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Chuck Hayes F-C · 6'6" 240 · 26	6.3	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Luther Head G · 6'3" 185 · 26	5.7	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Von Wafer G · 6'5" 209 · 23
Steve Francis G · 6'3" 210 · 32
Brent Barry G · 6'7" 210 · 37
Rafer Alston #12 · G · 6'2" 175 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Joey Dorsey #15 · · 6'8" 268 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	61%	38	26	6	7	11	0	10	28	13-17	76%	31-52	60%	11-24	46%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE