Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	29	Grizzlies	27%	93	95
	15	Hawks	73%	101	105

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MEM	113.1	84	93.5
ATL	122.1	86	78.0

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+13

-9

ATL

+11

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.06 52.8%

ATL

1.25 62.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	ATL
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		95 0%	105 100%
Q4 - 0:12.0	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	95 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 0:14.0	MEM	MISS Gasol 7' Jump Shot	95 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 0:19.0	ATL	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	95 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 0:19.0	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	95 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 0:25.0	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	95 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:27.0	MEM	MISS Gay 18' Jump Shot	95 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:39.0	ATL	Horford 18' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Bibby 10 AST)	95 0.3%	103 99.7%
Q4 - 1:03	MEM	Warrick 3' Alley Oop Layup (20 PTS) (Conley 4 AST)	95 1.2%	101 98.8%
Q4 - 1:16	ATL	Pachulia Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Bibby 9 AST)	93 1.0%	101 99.0%
Q4 - 1:34	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	93 2.3%	99 97.7%
Q4 - 1:35	ATL	MISS Williams 13' Running Jump Shot	93 3.4%	99 96.6%
Q4 - 1:57	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	93 2.7%	99 97.3%
Q4 - 1:57	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	92 2.4%	99 97.6%
Q4 - 2:14	ATL	Johnson Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T15)	91 2.0%	99 98.0%
Q4 - 2:36	MEM	Mayo 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Conley 3 AST)	91 1.0%	99 99.0%
Q4 - 2:53	ATL	Johnson 15' Jump Shot (26 PTS)	89 1.0%	99 99.0%
Q4 - 3:12	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	89 1.4%	97 98.6%
Q4 - 3:12	MEM	MISS Warrick Free Throw 1 of 2	88 1.2%	97 98.8%
Q4 - 3:31	ATL	Johnson 3' Driving Reverse Layup (24 PTS) (Bibby 8 AST)	88 2.7%	97 97.3%
Q4 - 3:45	MEM	Gay Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	88 3.6%	95 96.4%
Q4 - 3:45	MEM	Gay Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	87 3.4%	95 96.6%
Q4 - 3:54	MEM	Conley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	86 2.5%	95 97.5%
Q4 - 3:56	ATL	MISS Johnson 29' 3PT Jump Shot	86 2.2%	95 97.8%
Q4 - 4:02	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	86 1.7%	95 98.3%
Q4 - 4:02	ATL	MISS Williams 7' Jump Shot	86 2.2%	95 97.8%
Q4 - 4:05	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	86 1.7%	95 98.3%
Q4 - 4:08	ATL	MISS Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot	86 2.2%	95 97.8%
Q4 - 4:31	MEM	Warrick 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Mayo 3 AST)	86 1.6%	95 98.4%
Q4 - 4:52	ATL	Bibby 29' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Williams 5 AST)	84 1.1%	95 98.9%
Q4 - 5:14	MEM	Buckner 3' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	84 3.5%	92 96.5%
Q4 - 5:34	ATL	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	82 2.5%	92 97.5%
Q4 - 5:34	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	82 2.7%	91 97.3%
Q4 - 5:44	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	82 3.5%	90 96.5%
Q4 - 5:45	MEM	MISS Gay 19' Jump Shot	82 3.8%	90 96.2%
Q4 - 6:00	ATL	Bibby 20' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Williams 4 AST)	82 4.8%	90 95.2%
Q4 - 6:10	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	82 7.8%	88 92.2%
Q4 - 6:11	MEM	MISS Conley 28' 3PT Jump Shot	82 8.6%	88 91.4%
Q4 - 6:21	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	82 10.4%	88 89.6%
Q4 - 6:22	ATL	MISS Horford 4' Jump Shot	82 9.5%	88 90.5%
Q4 - 6:36	MEM	Warrick Driving Dunk (13 PTS)	82 7.8%	88 92.2%
Q4 - 6:53	ATL	Smith 3 Second Violation Turnover (P4.T14)	80 5.9%	88 94.1%
Q4 - 7:18	MEM	Gay 18' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	80 5.1%	88 94.9%
Q4 - 7:36	ATL	Bibby 28' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Horford 4 AST)	78 3.9%	88 96.1%
Q4 - 8:09	MEM	Conley 11' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS)	78 7.5%	85 92.5%
Q4 - 8:26	ATL	Smith 3' Driving Layup (14 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	76 5.8%	85 94.2%
Q4 - 8:45	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	76 7.5%	83 92.5%
Q4 - 8:47	MEM	MISS Mayo 29' 3PT Jump Shot	76 8.0%	83 92.0%
Q4 - 8:54	MEM	Conley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	76 9.4%	83 90.6%
Q4 - 8:55	ATL	MISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot	76 8.7%	83 91.3%
Q4 - 9:04	MEM	Williams STEAL (1 STL)	76 8.4%	83 91.6%
Q4 - 9:22	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	76 10.3%	83 89.7%
Q4 - 9:24	ATL	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	76 9.7%	83 90.3%
Q4 - 9:43	MEM	Conley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Gay 2 AST)	76 8.4%	83 91.6%
Q4 - 9:51	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	73 5.3%	83 94.7%
Q4 - 9:53	ATL	MISS Murray 5' Jump Shot	73 4.9%	83 95.1%
Q4 - 10:14	MEM	Mayo 5' Running Jump Shot (9 PTS)	73 4.7%	83 95.3%
Q4 - 10:18	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	71 3.8%	83 96.2%
Q4 - 10:20	MEM	MISS Conley 1' Driving Reverse Layup	71 3.3%	83 96.7%
Q4 - 10:34	ATL	Murray Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T13)	71 3.8%	83 96.2%
Q4 - 10:39	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	71 3.0%	83 97.0%
Q4 - 10:39	MEM	Gasol Putback Layup (4 PTS)	71 3.0%	83 97.0%
Q4 - 10:41	MEM	MISS Conley 3' Jump Shot	69 2.1%	83 97.9%
Q4 - 10:52	ATL	Smith Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	69 2.4%	83 97.6%
Q4 - 10:55	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	69 2.0%	83 98.0%
Q4 - 10:57	ATL	MISS Evans 25' 3PT Jump Shot	69 2.3%	83 97.7%
Q4 - 11:17	MEM	Mayo Bad Pass Turnover (P5.T8)	69 2.3%	83 97.7%
Q4 - 11:21	ATL	Smith Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T11)	69 2.8%	83 97.2%
Q4 - 11:36	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	69 2.3%	83 97.7%
Q4 - 11:38	MEM	MISS Mayo 18' Jump Shot	69 2.4%	83 97.6%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		69 2.8%	83 97.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	69 2.3%	83 97.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Murray 35' 3PT Jump Shot	69 2.6%	83 97.4%
Q3 - 0:05.0	MEM	Lowry 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Mayo 2 AST)	69 2.7%	83 97.3%
Q3 - 0:29.0	ATL	Smith 3' Finger Roll Layup (12 PTS)	66 1.7%	83 98.3%
Q3 - 0:52.0	MEM	Warrick Alley Oop Dunk (11 PTS) (Mayo 1 AST)	66 2.2%	81 97.8%
Q3 - 0:55.0	ATL	Law Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)	64 1.7%	81 98.3%
Q3 - 1:06	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	64 1.6%	81 98.4%
Q3 - 1:06	ATL	MISS Evans 25' 3PT Jump Shot	64 1.8%	81 98.2%
Q3 - 1:18	MEM	Lowry Traveling Turnover (P1.T7)	64 1.6%	81 98.4%
Q3 - 1:28	ATL	Murray 3' Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Law 1 AST)	64 1.9%	81 98.1%
Q3 - 1:36	ATL	Law REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	64 2.4%	79 97.6%
Q3 - 1:39	ATL	MISS Smith 28' 3PT Jump Shot	64 2.7%	79 97.3%
Q3 - 1:52	MEM	Lowry Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	64 2.3%	79 97.7%
Q3 - 1:52	MEM	Lowry Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	63 2.3%	79 97.7%
Q3 - 1:56	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	62 1.9%	79 98.1%
Q3 - 1:58	ATL	MISS Murray 16' Turnaround Jump Shot	62 1.8%	79 98.2%
Q3 - 2:14	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	62 1.8%	79 98.2%
Q3 - 2:15	MEM	MISS Lowry Free Throw 2 of 2	62 1.9%	79 98.1%
Q3 - 2:15	MEM	Lowry Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)	62 2.1%	79 97.9%
Q3 - 2:17	MEM	Warrick REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	61 1.8%	79 98.2%
Q3 - 2:18	ATL	MISS Pachulia 2' Driving Layup	61 1.7%	79 98.3%
Q3 - 2:39	MEM	Gay Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	61 1.5%	79 98.5%
Q3 - 2:39	MEM	Gay Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	60 1.4%	79 98.6%
Q3 - 2:39	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	59 1.2%	79 98.8%
Q3 - 2:39	MEM	Horford BLOCK (2 BLK)	59 1.1%	79 98.9%
Q3 - 2:55	ATL	Horford Dunk (13 PTS) (Pachulia 2 AST)	59 1.2%	79 98.8%
Q3 - 3:07	MEM	Warrick Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)	59 1.7%	77 98.3%
Q3 - 3:29	ATL	Bibby 27' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Horford 3 AST)	56 1.2%	77 98.8%
Q3 - 3:33	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	56 1.6%	74 98.4%
Q3 - 3:34	ATL	MISS Evans 27' 3PT Jump Shot	56 1.9%	74 98.1%
Q3 - 3:48	MEM	Lowry Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	56 1.6%	74 98.4%
Q3 - 3:48	MEM	Lowry Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	55 1.6%	74 98.4%
Q3 - 3:48	ATL	Pachulia Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	54 1.4%	74 98.6%
Q3 - 4:07	MEM	Lowry Running Layup (9 PTS)	54 1.3%	74 98.7%
Q3 - 4:11	ATL	Horford Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	52 1.1%	74 98.9%
Q3 - 4:36	MEM	Warrick Running Dunk (6 PTS) (Lowry 4 AST)	52 0.9%	74 99.1%
Q3 - 4:40	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	50 0.8%	74 99.2%
Q3 - 4:41	ATL	MISS Evans 25' 3PT Jump Shot	50 0.7%	74 99.3%
Q3 - 4:58	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	50 0.6%	74 99.4%
Q3 - 5:00	MEM	MISS Gay 25' 3PT Jump Shot	50 0.7%	74 99.3%
Q3 - 5:07	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	50 0.9%	74 99.1%
Q3 - 5:08	ATL	MISS Horford 18' Jump Shot	50 0.8%	74 99.2%
Q3 - 5:17	MEM	Warrick 7' Driving Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Lowry 3 AST)	50 0.7%	74 99.3%
Q3 - 5:27	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	48 0.6%	74 99.4%
Q3 - 5:27	MEM	Johnson BLOCK (1 BLK)	48 0.6%	74 99.4%
Q3 - 5:44	ATL	Johnson 28' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS)	48 0.6%	74 99.4%
Q3 - 5:54	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	48 0.9%	71 99.1%
Q3 - 5:56	MEM	MISS Gay 28' 3PT Jump Shot	48 0.9%	71 99.1%
Q3 - 6:23	ATL	Johnson 28' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Pachulia 1 AST)	48 1.2%	71 98.8%
Q3 - 6:42	MEM	Mayo 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Lowry 2 AST)	48 1.6%	68 98.4%
Q3 - 6:55	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	45 1.2%	68 98.8%
Q3 - 6:55	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	45 1.2%	67 98.8%
Q3 - 6:57	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	45 1.3%	66 98.7%
Q3 - 6:58	MEM	MISS Lowry 14' Jump Shot	45 1.4%	66 98.6%
Q3 - 7:19	ATL	Smith Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T7)	45 1.8%	66 98.2%
Q3 - 7:31	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	45 1.5%	66 98.5%
Q3 - 7:32	MEM	MISS Warrick 18' Jump Shot	45 1.6%	66 98.4%
Q3 - 7:59	ATL	Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Horford 2 AST)	45 1.8%	66 98.2%
Q3 - 8:20	MEM	Warrick Dunk (2 PTS) (Lowry 1 AST)	45 2.5%	63 97.5%
Q3 - 8:39	ATL	Horford 4' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Bibby 7 AST)	43 2.2%	63 97.8%
Q3 - 9:02	MEM	Milicic Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	43 2.6%	61 97.4%
Q3 - 9:02	MEM	Milicic Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	42 2.5%	61 97.5%
Q3 - 9:18	ATL	Bibby 3' Layup (9 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	41 2.3%	61 97.7%
Q3 - 9:29	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	41 2.6%	59 97.4%
Q3 - 9:30	MEM	MISS Gay 28' 3PT Jump Shot	41 2.7%	59 97.3%
Q3 - 9:45	ATL	Smith 22' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)	41 3.0%	59 97.0%
Q3 - 10:05	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	41 3.7%	57 96.3%
Q3 - 10:05	MEM	Gay Putback Dunk (10 PTS)	41 3.7%	57 96.3%
Q3 - 10:07	MEM	MISS Gay 2' Layup	39 2.9%	57 97.1%
Q3 - 10:16	ATL	Johnson 10' Fadeaway Jumper (14 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)	39 3.2%	57 96.8%
Q3 - 10:38	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	39 3.7%	55 96.3%
Q3 - 10:38	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	39 4.2%	55 95.8%
Q3 - 10:38	MEM	MISS Gasol Putback Layup	39 3.8%	55 96.2%
Q3 - 10:42	MEM	MISS Arthur 17' Jump Shot	39 3.8%	55 96.2%
Q3 - 11:04	ATL	Smith Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Bibby 6 AST)	39 4.5%	55 95.5%
Q3 - 11:16	ATL	Williams REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	39 5.0%	53 95.0%
Q3 - 11:17	MEM	MISS Mayo 26' 3PT Jump Shot	39 5.3%	53 94.7%
Q3 - 11:23	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	39 5.8%	53 94.2%
Q3 - 11:24	MEM	MISS Mayo 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	39 5.3%	53 94.7%
Q3 - 11:46	ATL	Bibby 27' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	39 5.8%	53 94.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM		39 7.4%	50 92.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	39 8.5%	50 91.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Crittenton 21' Jump Shot	39 7.8%	50 92.2%
Q2 - 0:05.0	ATL	HAWKS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#6)	39 8.6%	50 91.4%
Q2 - 0:29.0	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	39 7.9%	50 92.1%
Q2 - 0:31.0	MEM	MISS Crittenton 5' Jump Shot	39 8.1%	50 91.9%
Q2 - 0:37.0	ATL	Bibby Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T5)	39 8.6%	50 91.4%
Q2 - 0:42.0	MEM	Evans STEAL (1 STL)	39 7.9%	50 92.1%
Q2 - 0:59.0	ATL	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	39 8.6%	50 91.4%
Q2 - 0:59.0	ATL	Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	39 8.8%	49 91.2%
Q2 - 1:10	MEM	Gay Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	39 10.2%	48 89.8%
Q2 - 1:27	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	39 11.2%	48 88.8%
Q2 - 1:28	ATL	MISS Johnson 21' Jump Shot	39 10.9%	48 89.1%
Q2 - 1:45	MEM	Mayo Foul Turnover (P4.T4)	39 10.3%	48 89.7%
Q2 - 1:58	ATL	Horford 6' Turnaround Jump Shot (9 PTS)	39 11.2%	48 88.8%
Q2 - 2:15	MEM	Arthur 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Conley 2 AST)	39 12.7%	46 87.3%
Q2 - 2:35	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	37 11.4%	46 88.6%
Q2 - 2:36	ATL	MISS Bibby 27' 3PT Jump Shot	37 11.0%	46 89.0%
Q2 - 2:54	MEM	Mayo 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	37 10.2%	46 89.8%
Q2 - 3:19	ATL	Horford Dunk (7 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	35 9.2%	46 90.8%
Q2 - 3:37	MEM	Gay 9' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS) (Conley 1 AST)	35 10.1%	44 89.9%
Q2 - 3:57	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	33 9.2%	44 90.8%
Q2 - 3:57	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	33 9.4%	43 90.6%
Q2 - 4:00	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	33 10.1%	42 89.9%
Q2 - 4:03	MEM	Horford BLOCK (1 BLK)	33 10.7%	42 89.3%
Q2 - 4:26	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	33 11.6%	42 88.4%
Q2 - 4:27	ATL	MISS Johnson 28' 3PT Jump Shot	33 11.2%	42 88.8%
Q2 - 4:32	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	33 10.3%	42 89.7%
Q2 - 4:33	MEM	MISS Conley 23' Jump Shot	33 10.7%	42 89.3%
Q2 - 5:04	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	33 11.7%	42 88.3%
Q2 - 5:06	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 2 of 2	33 11.6%	42 88.4%
Q2 - 5:06	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 2	33 10.8%	42 89.2%
Q2 - 5:10	MEM	Bibby STEAL (1 STL)	33 10.6%	42 89.4%
Q2 - 5:21	ATL	Johnson 2' Layup (12 PTS) (Bibby 5 AST)	33 11.7%	42 88.3%
Q2 - 5:40	MEM	Arthur Dunk (9 PTS) (Gasol 2 AST)	33 13.0%	40 87.0%
Q2 - 6:03	ATL	Horford 11' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	31 12.1%	40 87.9%
Q2 - 6:16	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	31 13.1%	38 86.9%
Q2 - 6:17	MEM	MISS Arthur 4' Jump Shot	31 13.6%	38 86.4%
Q2 - 6:30	ATL	Johnson 28' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Bibby 4 AST)	31 14.7%	38 85.3%
Q2 - 6:46	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	31 17.6%	35 82.4%
Q2 - 6:46	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	31 19.6%	35 80.4%
Q2 - 6:46	MEM	MISS Arthur Tip Shot	31 18.2%	35 81.8%
Q2 - 6:47	MEM	MISS Mayo 6' Jump Shot	31 18.2%	35 81.8%
Q2 - 7:04	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 19.3%	35 80.7%
Q2 - 7:05	ATL	MISS Bibby 18' Jump Shot	31 18.8%	35 81.2%
Q2 - 7:20	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	31 17.6%	35 82.4%
Q2 - 7:21	MEM	MISS Gay 20' Jump Shot	31 18.1%	35 81.9%
Q2 - 7:41	ATL	Bibby 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Murray 1 AST)	31 19.4%	35 80.6%
Q2 - 7:59	MEM	Gay Putback Layup (6 PTS)	31 21.1%	33 78.9%
Q2 - 8:00	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	29 19.4%	33 80.6%
Q2 - 8:02	MEM	MISS Gay 3' Layup	29 18.2%	33 81.8%
Q2 - 8:17	ATL	Murray Running Dunk (4 PTS) (Bibby 3 AST)	29 19.3%	33 80.7%
Q2 - 8:26	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	29 21.1%	31 78.9%
Q2 - 8:28	MEM	Smith BLOCK (1 BLK)	29 21.7%	31 78.3%
Q2 - 8:53	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	29 23.0%	31 77.0%
Q2 - 8:53	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 1 of 2	29 23.5%	30 76.5%
Q2 - 8:57	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	29 23.0%	30 77.0%
Q2 - 8:58	MEM	MISS Milicic 7' Turnaround Hook Shot	29 23.6%	30 76.4%
Q2 - 9:14	MEM	Lowry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	29 24.7%	30 75.3%
Q2 - 9:15	ATL	MISS Murray 19' Jump Shot	29 24.1%	30 75.9%
Q2 - 9:39	MEM	Lowry Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	29 22.8%	30 77.2%
Q2 - 9:55	ATL	Pachulia 5' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Evans 1 AST)	26 19.2%	30 80.8%
Q2 - 10:10	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 21.0%	28 79.0%
Q2 - 10:11	MEM	MISS Warrick 18' Jump Shot	26 21.6%	28 78.4%
Q2 - 10:24	ATL	Murray Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	26 22.9%	28 77.1%
Q2 - 10:46	ATL	Law REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	26 21.0%	28 79.0%
Q2 - 10:47	MEM	MISS Warrick 18' Jump Shot	26 21.5%	28 78.5%
Q2 - 11:00	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	26 22.8%	28 77.2%
Q2 - 11:02	MEM	MISS Warrick 19' Jump Shot	26 21.7%	28 78.3%
Q2 - 11:13	ATL	Smith 8' Running Hook Shot (5 PTS)	26 22.9%	28 77.1%
Q2 - 11:26	MEM	Lowry 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	26 24.8%	26 75.2%
Q2 - 11:40	ATL	Murray 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Smith 5 AST)	24 22.9%	26 77.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM		24 24.8%	24 75.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	24 26.8%	24 73.2%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Lowry 32' 3PT Jump Shot	24 25.4%	24 74.6%
Q1 - 0:05.0	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	24 26.0%	24 74.0%
Q1 - 0:05.0	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 1 of 2	24 26.5%	23 73.5%
Q1 - 0:26.0	ATL	Law REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 26.5%	23 73.5%
Q1 - 0:28.0	MEM	MISS Gay 19' Jump Shot	24 27.0%	23 73.0%
Q1 - 0:38.0	ATL	Law Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	24 28.1%	23 71.9%
Q1 - 0:38.0	ATL	Law Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	24 28.5%	22 71.5%
Q1 - 1:00	MEM	Lowry 7' Driving Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Warrick 1 AST)	24 30.6%	21 69.4%
Q1 - 1:13	ATL	Pachulia Driving Layup (2 PTS)	22 27.7%	21 72.3%
Q1 - 1:38	MEM	Buckner Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	22 30.3%	19 69.7%
Q1 - 1:38	MEM	Buckner Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	21 29.8%	19 70.2%
Q1 - 1:52	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 27.7%	19 72.3%
Q1 - 1:55	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Fadeaway Jumper	20 27.3%	19 72.7%
Q1 - 2:06	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 26.2%	19 73.8%
Q1 - 2:08	MEM	MISS Gay 12' Running Jump Shot	20 26.7%	19 73.3%
Q1 - 2:30	ATL	HAWKS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	20 27.7%	19 72.3%
Q1 - 2:30	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	20 26.2%	19 73.8%
Q1 - 2:31	ATL	MISS Evans 20' Jump Shot	20 27.2%	19 72.8%
Q1 - 2:54	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 26.2%	19 73.8%
Q1 - 2:56	MEM	MISS Arthur Free Throw 2 of 2	20 26.4%	19 73.6%
Q1 - 2:56	MEM	Arthur Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	20 27.6%	19 72.4%
Q1 - 3:05	MEM	Lowry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 25.8%	19 74.2%
Q1 - 3:06	ATL	MISS Evans 20' Jump Shot	19 25.3%	19 74.7%
Q1 - 3:15	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	19 24.1%	19 75.9%
Q1 - 3:16	ATL	MISS Bibby 29' 3PT Jump Shot	19 25.3%	19 74.7%
Q1 - 3:30	MEM	Arthur Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	19 24.1%	19 75.9%
Q1 - 3:30	MEM	Arthur Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	18 23.7%	19 76.3%
Q1 - 3:45	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	17 22.5%	19 77.5%
Q1 - 3:46	ATL	MISS Johnson 22' Jump Shot	17 22.0%	19 78.0%
Q1 - 3:58	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	17 21.0%	19 79.0%
Q1 - 3:58	MEM	Gay Putback Dunk (4 PTS)	17 21.0%	19 79.0%
Q1 - 4:01	MEM	MISS Mayo 15' Jump Shot	15 18.3%	19 81.7%
Q1 - 4:19	ATL	Horford Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	15 19.3%	19 80.7%
Q1 - 4:32	ATL	Evans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 17.9%	19 82.1%
Q1 - 4:34	MEM	MISS Arthur 18' Jump Shot	15 18.3%	19 81.7%
Q1 - 4:52	ATL	Bibby Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	15 19.3%	19 80.7%
Q1 - 4:59	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 17.9%	19 82.1%
Q1 - 5:02	MEM	MISS Gasol 8' Turnaround Jump Shot	15 18.5%	19 81.5%
Q1 - 5:23	ATL	Horford 5' Layup (2 PTS) (Bibby 2 AST)	15 19.6%	19 80.4%
Q1 - 5:33	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 20.8%	17 79.2%
Q1 - 5:35	ATL	MISS Evans 29' 3PT Jump Shot	15 21.9%	17 78.1%
Q1 - 5:53	MEM	Conley 20' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	15 20.8%	17 79.2%
Q1 - 6:09	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 19.2%	17 80.8%
Q1 - 6:10	ATL	MISS Williams 28' 3PT Jump Shot	13 18.8%	17 81.2%
Q1 - 6:35	MEM	Mayo 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	13 17.9%	17 82.1%
Q1 - 6:50	ATL	Williams 3' Layup (7 PTS) (Smith 4 AST)	11 16.8%	17 83.2%
Q1 - 6:56	MEM	Smith STEAL (2 STL)	11 17.9%	15 82.1%
Q1 - 7:11	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	11 19.1%	15 80.9%
Q1 - 7:31	MEM	Gasol 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Arthur 2 AST)	11 21.7%	12 78.3%
Q1 - 7:49	ATL	Johnson 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)	9 20.4%	12 79.6%
Q1 - 8:10	MEM	Gay 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	9 21.5%	10 78.5%
Q1 - 8:20	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	7 20.1%	10 79.9%
Q1 - 8:22	ATL	MISS Smith 4' Jump Shot	7 19.7%	10 80.3%
Q1 - 8:39	MEM	Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Arthur 1 AST)	7 18.8%	10 81.2%
Q1 - 8:52	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 16.4%	10 83.6%
Q1 - 8:53	ATL	MISS Bibby 18' Jump Shot	4 16.0%	10 84.0%
Q1 - 9:11	MEM	Arthur 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	4 15.7%	10 84.3%
Q1 - 9:27	ATL	Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bibby 1 AST)	2 14.5%	10 85.5%
Q1 - 9:43	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 16.7%	7 83.3%
Q1 - 9:43	MEM	MISS Gasol 9' Jump Shot	2 17.0%	7 83.0%
Q1 - 10:10	ATL	Williams 5' Driving Jump Shot (5 PTS)	2 18.1%	7 81.9%
Q1 - 10:37	MEM	Arthur 9' Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Gay 1 AST)	2 19.2%	5 80.8%
Q1 - 10:57	ATL	Williams 28' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	0 18.1%	5 81.9%
Q1 - 11:09	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 20.2%	2 79.8%
Q1 - 11:10	MEM	MISS Gay 21' Jump Shot	0 20.6%	2 79.4%
Q1 - 11:32	ATL	Johnson Layup (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	0 21.4%	2 78.6%
Q1 - 11:46	MEM	Smith STEAL (1 STL)	0 22.5%	0 77.5%
Q1 - 12:00	ATL	Jump Ball Smith vs. Gasol: Tip to Arthur	0 23.7%	0 76.3%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.06 52.8%

ATL

1.25 62.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

54%

ATL

83%

Midrange

MEM

43%

ATL

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

6.0

36%

55%

ATL

15.0

42%

63%

Free Throws

MEM

88%

ATL

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
H. Warrick	20	71%	10.0 / 14
K. Lowry	17	77%	8.5 / 11
R. Gay	16	40%	8.0 / 20
O. Mayo	11	46%	5.5 / 12
D. Arthur	11	50%	5.5 / 11
M. Conley	10	63%	5.0 / 8
M. Gasol	4	33%	2.0 / 6
G. Buckner	4	100%	2.0 / 2
D. Milicic	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Crittenton	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Johnson	26	81%	13.0 / 16
M. Bibby	20	83%	10.0 / 12
M. Williams	16	67%	8.0 / 12
A. Horford	15	75%	7.5 / 10
J. Smith	14	64%	7.0 / 11
Z. Pachulia	6	75%	3.0 / 4
R. Murray	6	43%	3.0 / 7
A. Law	2	100%	1.0 / 1
M. Evans	0	-	0.0 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+13

-9

ATL

+11

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.06 52.8%

ATL

1.25 62.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	103.4 109.2	MEM 113.1 ATL 122.1 +9.0
Pace	90.3 89.8	MEM 93.5 +15.5 ATL 78.0
Avg. Poss. Time	16.2 15.9	MEM 15.4 +3.1 ATL 18.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.6% 50.4%	MEM 48.1% ATL 63.4% +15.3%
TO %	15.6% 13.6%	MEM 9.3% +6.6% ATL 15.9%
ORB %	25.9% 26.0%	MEM 27.0% +3.9% ATL 23.1%
FTrt	32.9 32.3	MEM 31.2 +4.4 ATL 26.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	49.7% 56.1%	MEM 51.4% ATL 82.5% +31.1%
STL %	8.2% 8.2%	MEM 8.3% +2.5% ATL 5.8%
BLK %	7.9% 7.4%	MEM 0.0% ATL 6.1% +6.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.46 and 2.46.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.5% 53.2%	MEM 52.8% ATL 62.5% +9.7%
Rim FG%	55.3% 60.5%	MEM 53.8% ATL 82.6% +28.8%
Mid FG%	40.9% 40.2%	MEM 42.5% ATL 45.8% +3.3%
3P %	36.0% 36.6%	MEM 36.4% ATL 41.7% +5.3%
FT %	75.6% 73.8%	MEM 87.5% +8.6% ATL 78.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.2% 32.2%	MEM 33.8% +1.4% ATL 32.4%
Mid Att. %	45.3% 42.4%	MEM 51.9% ATL 33.8% +18.1%
3P Att. %	17.5% 25.3%	MEM 14.3% ATL 33.8% +19.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	ATL
Possessions	84	86
Possession Minutes	21.6	26.4
Points	95	105
Rebounds	30	33
Assists	18	33
Steals	7	5
Blocks	0	4
Turnovers (Team)	9 (0)	13 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (3)	6 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	20 (1)	27 (4)
Field Goals	35-77	40-71
At-the-Rim FG	14-26	19-23
Midrange FG	17-40	11-24
2-Point FG	31-66	30-47
3-Point FG	4-11	10-24
Free Throws	21-24	15-19
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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29 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 22	40.0	16	40%	10	2	1	0	1	3	4	6	4-4	100%	6-15	40%	0-3	0%
O.J. Mayo G · 6'5" 210 · 21	35.1	11	46%	4	3	1	0	5	6	0	4	0-0	-	4-9	44%	1-3	33%
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 21	30.6	10	63%	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 24	28.7	4	33%	4	2	0	0	1	3	2	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 21	21.8	11	50%	3	2	0	0	0	3	2	1	3-4	75%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 26	25.8	20	71%	2	1	2	0	0	3	1	1	4-5	80%	8-12	67%	0-0	-
Darko Milicic C · 7'0" 275 · 23	19.4	2	50%	3	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Kyle Lowry G · 6'0" 196 · 23	17.4	17	77%	2	4	2	0	1	1	0	2	6-7	86%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 32	14.9	4	100%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Javaris Crittenton G · 6'5" 200 · 21	6.3	0	0%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Antoine Walker F · 6'9" 245 · 32
Marko Jaric G · 6'7" 224 · 30
Quinton Ross #13 · F-G · 6'6" 193 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Hamed Haddadi #15 · C · 7'2" 265 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	53%	30	18	7	0	9	0	10	20	21-24	88%	31-66	47%	4-11	36%

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29 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 22	40.0	16	40%	10	2	1	0	1	3	4	6	4-4	100%	6-15	40%	0-3	0%
O.J. Mayo G · 6'5" 210 · 21	35.1	11	46%	4	3	1	0	5	6	0	4	0-0	-	4-9	44%	1-3	33%
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 21	30.6	10	63%	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 24	28.7	4	33%	4	2	0	0	1	3	2	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 21	21.8	11	50%	3	2	0	0	0	3	2	1	3-4	75%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 26	25.8	20	71%	2	1	2	0	0	3	1	1	4-5	80%	8-12	67%	0-0	-
Darko Milicic C · 7'0" 275 · 23	19.4	2	50%	3	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Kyle Lowry G · 6'0" 196 · 23	17.4	17	77%	2	4	2	0	1	1	0	2	6-7	86%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 32	14.9	4	100%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Javaris Crittenton G · 6'5" 200 · 21	6.3	0	0%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Antoine Walker F · 6'9" 245 · 32
Marko Jaric G · 6'7" 224 · 30
Quinton Ross #13 · F-G · 6'6" 193 · 28	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Hamed Haddadi #15 · C · 7'2" 265 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	53%	30	18	7	0	9	0	10	20	21-24	88%	31-66	47%	4-11	36%

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15 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 31	37.3	20	83%	3	10	1	0	2	1	1	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	4-6	67%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 23	37.1	15	75%	5	4	0	2	2	4	2	3	1-2	50%	7-9	78%	0-0	-
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 27	34.8	26	81%	5	4	0	1	1	3	0	5	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	4-6	67%
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 22	31.9	16	67%	4	5	1	0	0	3	0	4	6-6	100%	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 23	28.0	14	64%	6	5	2	1	4	2	1	5	2-5	40%	6-8	75%	0-1	0%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 25	26.2	6	75%	6	2	0	0	1	4	1	5	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Maurice Evans G-F · 6'5" 220 · 30	16.5	0	0%	1	1	1	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-5	0%
Flip Murray G · 6'3" 200 · 29	12.4	6	43%	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 24	10.7	2	100%	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 24	4.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 24	0.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Randolph Morris C · 6'11" 275 · 23
Othello Hunter #50 · · 6'8" 225 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Thomas Gardner #3 · G · 6'5" 225 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	63%	33	33	5	4	13	0	6	27	15-19	79%	30-47	64%	10-24	42%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE