Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, November 28, 2008

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	29	Grizzlies	18%	85	98
	10	Spurs	82%	97	109

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MEM	112.6	87	85.9
SAS	125.3	87	88.2

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

-13

SAS

+12

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.20 59.8%

SAS

1.24 61.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		98 0%	109 100%
Q4 - 0:08.0	MEM	Mayo Free Throw 2 of 2 (32 PTS)	98 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:08.0	MEM	Mayo Free Throw 1 of 2 (31 PTS)	97 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	96 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:17.0	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 1	96 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0	MEM	Parker STEAL (1 STL)	96 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 0:44.0	SAS	Mason Jr. 24' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)	96 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 1:03	MEM	Conley 4' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	96 0.3%	104 99.7%
Q4 - 1:07	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	94 0.2%	104 99.8%
Q4 - 1:08	MEM	MISS Mayo 26' 3PT Jump Shot	94 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 1:24	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	94 0.3%	104 99.7%
Q4 - 1:24	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 1 of 2	94 0.4%	103 99.6%
Q4 - 1:43	MEM	Gay Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)	94 0.5%	103 99.5%
Q4 - 1:43	MEM	Gay Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)	93 0.5%	103 99.5%
Q4 - 1:48	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	92 0.4%	103 99.6%
Q4 - 1:49	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot	92 0.3%	103 99.7%
Q4 - 2:14	MEM	Milicic 1' Dunk (11 PTS) (Conley 4 AST)	92 0.2%	103 99.8%
Q4 - 2:32	SAS	Thomas 5' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	90 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 2:49	MEM	Mayo 6' Pullup Jump Shot (30 PTS)	90 0.2%	101 99.8%
Q4 - 3:07	SAS	Parker Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	88 0.2%	101 99.8%
Q4 - 3:07	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	88 0.2%	100 99.8%
Q4 - 3:18	MEM	Mayo 16' Jump Shot (28 PTS)	88 0.3%	99 99.7%
Q4 - 3:36	SAS	Udoka 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hill 7 AST)	86 0.5%	99 99.5%
Q4 - 3:58	MEM	Mayo 27' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS)	86 0.9%	96 99.1%
Q4 - 4:13	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)	83 0.4%	96 99.6%
Q4 - 4:30	SAS	SPURS Rebound	83 0.9%	93 99.1%
Q4 - 4:30	MEM	MISS Gay 25' 3PT Jump Shot	83 1.0%	93 99.0%
Q4 - 4:52	SAS	Udoka 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Mason Jr. 4 AST)	83 1.3%	93 98.7%
Q4 - 4:57	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	83 1.9%	91 98.1%
Q4 - 4:58	MEM	MISS Gay 25' 3PT Jump Shot	83 2.2%	91 97.8%
Q4 - 5:15	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	83 4.1%	91 95.9%
Q4 - 5:16	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	83 3.9%	91 96.1%
Q4 - 5:16	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	83 3.2%	91 96.8%
Q4 - 5:25	MEM	Gay 4' Turnaround Jump Shot (24 PTS)	83 4.0%	90 96.0%
Q4 - 5:42	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	81 2.9%	90 97.1%
Q4 - 5:43	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 1	81 2.8%	90 97.2%
Q4 - 5:54	MEM	Mayo Dunk (23 PTS)	81 3.9%	88 96.1%
Q4 - 5:59	SAS	Ginobili Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	79 2.9%	88 97.1%
Q4 - 6:09	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	79 2.7%	88 97.3%
Q4 - 6:10	MEM	MISS Milicic 5' Jump Shot	79 2.9%	88 97.1%
Q4 - 6:27	SAS	Hill Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)	79 3.6%	88 96.4%
Q4 - 6:32	MEM	Udoka STEAL (2 STL)	79 6.3%	85 93.7%
Q4 - 6:50	SAS	Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Hill 5 AST)	79 8.5%	85 91.5%
Q4 - 7:00	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	79 14.4%	82 85.6%
Q4 - 7:00	MEM	MISS Mayo Free Throw 1 of 1	79 15.0%	82 85.0%
Q4 - 7:14	SAS	Finley Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T12)	77 11.6%	82 88.4%
Q4 - 7:27	MEM	Udoka STEAL (1 STL)	77 8.8%	82 91.2%
Q4 - 7:49	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	77 11.6%	82 88.4%
Q4 - 7:50	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 24' Jump Shot	77 10.7%	82 89.3%
Q4 - 7:55	MEM	Hill STEAL (1 STL)	77 8.8%	82 91.2%
Q4 - 8:14	MEM	Lowry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	77 11.9%	82 88.1%
Q4 - 8:15	SAS	MISS Finley 21' Jump Shot	77 11.2%	82 88.8%
Q4 - 8:41	MEM	Gay Free Throw 1 of 1 (22 PTS)	77 9.5%	82 90.5%
Q4 - 9:06	SAS	Thomas 16' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hill 4 AST)	74 6.6%	82 93.4%
Q4 - 9:20	MEM	Gay 10' Floating Jump Shot (19 PTS)	74 8.2%	80 91.8%
Q4 - 9:32	SAS	Finley 7' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Hill 3 AST)	72 6.5%	80 93.5%
Q4 - 9:51	SAS	Hill REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	72 8.2%	78 91.8%
Q4 - 9:52	MEM	MISS Jaric 22' Jump Shot	72 8.8%	78 91.2%
Q4 - 10:12	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	72 10.5%	78 89.5%
Q4 - 10:12	MEM	MISS Mayo 13' Step Back Jump Shot	72 9.2%	78 90.8%
Q4 - 10:26	SAS	Thomas Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	72 10.5%	78 89.5%
Q4 - 10:26	SAS	MISS Thomas Free Throw 1 of 2	72 11.0%	77 89.0%
Q4 - 10:30	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	72 10.6%	77 89.4%
Q4 - 10:31	SAS	MISS Udoka 12' Turnaround Jump Shot	72 12.1%	77 87.9%
Q4 - 10:39	SAS	SPURS Rebound	72 10.6%	77 89.4%
Q4 - 10:39	SAS	MISS Udoka 12' Running Bank Shot	72 12.1%	77 87.9%
Q4 - 10:52	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	72 10.6%	77 89.4%
Q4 - 10:54	MEM	MISS Gasol 3' Layup	72 11.2%	77 88.8%
Q4 - 11:13	SAS	Thomas 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Mason Jr. 3 AST)	72 13.1%	77 86.9%
Q4 - 11:29	MEM	Mayo 17' Step Back Jump Shot (19 PTS)	72 15.9%	75 84.1%
Q4 - 11:42	SAS	Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	70 13.1%	75 86.9%
Q4 - 11:42	SAS	Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	70 13.6%	74 86.4%
Q4 - 11:45	SAS	Hill REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	70 15.9%	73 84.1%
Q4 - 11:46	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 19' Jump Shot	70 17.9%	73 82.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MEM		70 15.9%	73 84.1%
Q3 - 0:03.0	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T11)	70 18.9%	73 81.1%
Q3 - 0:30.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	70 16.2%	73 83.8%
Q3 - 0:31.0	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	70 18.0%	73 82.0%
Q3 - 0:38.0	MEM	Mayo 7' Floating Jump Shot (17 PTS)	70 16.2%	73 83.8%
Q3 - 0:42.0	SAS	Thomas Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T10)	68 13.4%	73 86.6%
Q3 - 0:44.0	MEM	Gasol 2' Layup (12 PTS) (Mayo 4 AST)	68 11.4%	73 88.6%
Q3 - 1:00	SAS	Parker 2' Driving Layup (10 PTS)	66 9.3%	73 90.7%
Q3 - 1:15	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	66 11.5%	71 88.5%
Q3 - 1:15	MEM	Gasol Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	65 11.0%	71 89.0%
Q3 - 1:37	SAS	Parker 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (8 PTS)	64 9.5%	71 90.5%
Q3 - 1:57	MEM	Gay 7' Running Bank Shot (17 PTS)	64 11.5%	69 88.5%
Q3 - 2:04	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)	62 9.8%	69 90.2%
Q3 - 2:14	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	62 8.2%	69 91.8%
Q3 - 2:15	MEM	MISS Gasol 5' Jump Hook Shot	62 8.7%	69 91.3%
Q3 - 2:30	SAS	Ginobili 1' Layup (11 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	62 9.7%	69 90.3%
Q3 - 2:44	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	62 11.5%	67 88.5%
Q3 - 2:44	MEM	Milicic Tip Shot (9 PTS)	62 11.5%	67 88.5%
Q3 - 2:45	MEM	MISS Milicic 2' Layup	60 8.7%	67 91.3%
Q3 - 3:04	SAS	Mason Jr. 18' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	60 9.8%	67 90.2%
Q3 - 3:15	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	60 11.3%	65 88.7%
Q3 - 3:16	MEM	MISS Mayo 15' Fadeaway Jumper	60 11.9%	65 88.1%
Q3 - 3:31	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	60 13.4%	65 86.6%
Q3 - 3:32	SAS	MISS Parker 4' Running Jump Shot	60 12.8%	65 87.2%
Q3 - 3:44	MEM	Gasol 5' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Conley 3 AST)	60 11.4%	65 88.6%
Q3 - 4:03	SAS	Mason Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Oberto 3 AST)	58 10.0%	65 90.0%
Q3 - 4:06	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	58 13.3%	62 86.7%
Q3 - 4:07	SAS	MISS Duncan 14' Jump Shot	58 15.0%	62 85.0%
Q3 - 4:29	MEM	Gay 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	58 13.3%	62 86.7%
Q3 - 4:42	SAS	Parker 5' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	56 11.7%	62 88.3%
Q3 - 5:07	MEM	Conley 2' Layup (11 PTS)	56 13.3%	60 86.7%
Q3 - 5:13	MEM	Conley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	54 11.7%	60 88.3%
Q3 - 5:14	SAS	MISS Ginobili 26' 3PT Jump Shot	54 11.1%	60 88.9%
Q3 - 5:29	MEM	Milicic 3' Layup (7 PTS) (Mayo 3 AST)	54 9.9%	60 90.1%
Q3 - 5:41	SAS	Ginobili Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	52 8.6%	60 91.4%
Q3 - 5:48	MEM	Gasol 2' Layup (6 PTS)	52 7.3%	60 92.7%
Q3 - 5:50	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	50 6.3%	60 93.7%
Q3 - 5:51	MEM	MISS Gasol 2' Layup	50 5.6%	60 94.4%
Q3 - 6:12	SAS	Oberto Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T7)	50 6.4%	60 93.6%
Q3 - 6:30	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)	50 5.5%	60 94.5%
Q3 - 6:30	MEM	MISS Milicic Free Throw 1 of 1	50 5.6%	60 94.4%
Q3 - 6:48	SAS	Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	48 4.7%	60 95.3%
Q3 - 7:13	MEM	Gay 1' Driving Layup (13 PTS) (Milicic 1 AST)	48 5.7%	58 94.3%
Q3 - 7:21	SAS	Duncan Layup (5 PTS) (Oberto 2 AST)	46 4.9%	58 95.1%
Q3 - 7:40	MEM	Gasol Traveling Turnover (P1.T10)	46 5.7%	56 94.3%
Q3 - 7:56	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Finley 2 AST)	46 6.6%	56 93.4%
Q3 - 8:14	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	46 8.8%	53 91.2%
Q3 - 8:15	MEM	MISS Conley 3' Layup	46 9.2%	53 90.8%
Q3 - 8:38	SAS	Finley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	46 10.2%	53 89.8%
Q3 - 8:42	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	46 13.2%	50 86.8%
Q3 - 8:43	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot	46 14.5%	50 85.5%
Q3 - 8:57	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	46 13.2%	50 86.8%
Q3 - 8:58	MEM	MISS Gasol 6' Jump Shot	46 13.7%	50 86.3%
Q3 - 9:11	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	46 15.0%	50 85.0%
Q3 - 9:12	SAS	MISS Oberto 15' Jump Shot	46 14.4%	50 85.6%
Q3 - 9:24	MEM	Mayo Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)	46 13.2%	50 86.8%
Q3 - 9:27	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	43 10.2%	50 89.8%
Q3 - 9:28	SAS	MISS Finley 17' Jump Shot	43 9.8%	50 90.2%
Q3 - 9:44	MEM	Mayo 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Conley 2 AST)	43 8.9%	50 91.1%
Q3 - 10:01	SAS	Mason Jr. 15' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Oberto 1 AST)	41 7.9%	50 92.1%
Q3 - 10:20	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	41 8.9%	48 91.1%
Q3 - 10:21	MEM	MISS Gasol 13' Fadeaway Jumper	41 9.3%	48 90.7%
Q3 - 10:39	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	41 10.2%	48 89.8%
Q3 - 10:40	SAS	MISS Bowen 20' Jump Shot	41 9.8%	48 90.2%
Q3 - 10:57	MEM	Mayo 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS)	41 8.9%	48 91.1%
Q3 - 11:06	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	38 7.0%	48 93.0%
Q3 - 11:08	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	38 6.1%	48 93.9%
Q3 - 11:09	MEM	MISS Mayo 19' Jump Shot	38 6.4%	48 93.6%
Q3 - 11:27	SAS	Mason Jr. 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bowen 2 AST)	38 7.0%	48 93.0%
Q3 - 11:42	MEM	Gay 16' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Gasol 1 AST)	38 7.9%	46 92.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		36 7.0%	46 93.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	36 6.1%	46 93.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 3' Driving Layup	36 6.7%	46 93.3%
Q2 - 0:07.0	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	36 6.4%	46 93.6%
Q2 - 0:08.0	MEM	MISS Gasol 18' Jump Shot	36 6.6%	46 93.4%
Q2 - 0:32.0	SAS	Tolliver 23' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hill 2 AST)	36 7.0%	46 93.0%
Q2 - 0:41.0	MEM	Warrick 3' Layup (2 PTS) (Ross 2 AST)	36 8.2%	44 91.8%
Q2 - 0:56.0	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	34 7.0%	44 93.0%
Q2 - 0:57.0	MEM	MISS Mayo 1' Layup	34 6.6%	44 93.4%
Q2 - 1:21	SAS	Hill Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	34 7.1%	44 92.9%
Q2 - 1:23	SAS	Tolliver REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	34 9.4%	41 90.6%
Q2 - 1:25	MEM	MISS Gasol 1' Layup	34 9.6%	41 90.4%
Q2 - 1:42	SAS	Tolliver 1' Driving Layup (3 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	34 10.2%	41 89.8%
Q2 - 1:58	SAS	Hill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	34 11.8%	39 88.2%
Q2 - 2:00	SAS	MISS Tolliver 17' Jump Shot	34 12.5%	39 87.5%
Q2 - 2:19	MEM	Conley 17' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	34 11.5%	39 88.5%
Q2 - 2:30	SAS	Tolliver Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	32 10.3%	39 89.7%
Q2 - 2:30	SAS	MISS Tolliver Free Throw 1 of 2	32 10.6%	38 89.4%
Q2 - 2:46	MEM	Arthur Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	32 10.3%	38 89.7%
Q2 - 3:03	SAS	Ginobili 2' Driving Layup (9 PTS)	32 11.5%	38 88.5%
Q2 - 3:20	MEM	Conley 17' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	32 12.6%	36 87.4%
Q2 - 3:43	SAS	Ginobili 2' Layup (7 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	30 11.5%	36 88.5%
Q2 - 4:03	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	30 12.6%	34 87.4%
Q2 - 4:05	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	30 13.6%	34 86.4%
Q2 - 4:11	SAS	Tolliver REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	30 12.6%	34 87.4%
Q2 - 4:14	MEM	MISS Arthur 1' Layup	30 13.0%	34 87.0%
Q2 - 4:16	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	30 14.1%	34 85.9%
Q2 - 4:17	MEM	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	30 13.0%	34 87.0%
Q2 - 4:23	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	30 14.1%	34 85.9%
Q2 - 4:24	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	30 13.6%	34 86.4%
Q2 - 4:37	MEM	Gay 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Lowry 1 AST)	30 12.6%	34 87.4%
Q2 - 5:01	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	27 10.2%	34 89.8%
Q2 - 5:15	MEM	Milicic Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	27 12.7%	31 87.3%
Q2 - 5:15	MEM	Milicic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	24 10.2%	31 89.8%
Q2 - 5:17	MEM	MISS Lowry 11' Jump Shot	24 9.5%	31 90.5%
Q2 - 5:25	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	24 10.2%	31 89.8%
Q2 - 5:26	SAS	MISS Parker 8' Jump Shot	24 9.9%	31 90.1%
Q2 - 5:40	MEM	Mayo 8' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	24 9.2%	31 90.8%
Q2 - 5:56	SAS	Finley 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Mason Jr. 2 AST)	22 8.2%	31 91.8%
Q2 - 6:09	MEM	Arthur Foul Turnover (P1.T8)	22 9.3%	29 90.7%
Q2 - 6:28	SAS	Duncan 2' Layup (3 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	22 10.5%	29 89.5%
Q2 - 6:38	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	22 11.4%	27 88.6%
Q2 - 6:40	MEM	MISS Arthur 16' Jump Shot	22 11.8%	27 88.2%
Q2 - 6:55	MEM	Arthur REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 12.8%	27 87.2%
Q2 - 6:56	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Jump Shot	22 12.4%	27 87.6%
Q2 - 7:16	MEM	Gay Traveling Turnover (P2.T7)	22 11.3%	27 88.7%
Q2 - 7:25	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 12.6%	27 87.4%
Q2 - 7:27	SAS	MISS Bonner 3' Layup	22 12.2%	27 87.8%
Q2 - 7:44	MEM	Gay 9' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	22 11.3%	27 88.7%
Q2 - 8:03	SAS	Parker 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	20 10.4%	27 89.6%
Q2 - 8:18	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	20 11.4%	25 88.6%
Q2 - 8:20	MEM	MISS Arthur 2' Layup	20 11.8%	25 88.2%
Q2 - 8:35	MEM	Lowry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20 12.6%	25 87.4%
Q2 - 8:36	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	20 12.2%	25 87.8%
Q2 - 8:49	MEM	Gay 3' Driving Layup (4 PTS)	20 11.4%	25 88.6%
Q2 - 9:09	SAS	Oberto 1' Layup (4 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	18 10.3%	25 89.7%
Q2 - 9:15	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 11.4%	23 88.6%
Q2 - 9:17	MEM	MISS Ross 25' 3PT Jump Shot	18 11.7%	23 88.3%
Q2 - 9:38	SAS	Bonner 3' Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	18 12.5%	23 87.5%
Q2 - 9:56	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 13.7%	21 86.3%
Q2 - 9:57	MEM	MISS Warrick 19' Jump Shot	18 14.1%	21 85.9%
Q2 - 10:18	SAS	Parker 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	18 15.1%	21 84.9%
Q2 - 10:37	MEM	Gasol 10' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Ross 1 AST)	18 16.5%	19 83.5%
Q2 - 11:01	SAS	Parker Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	16 15.3%	19 84.7%
Q2 - 11:14	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 14.0%	19 86.0%
Q2 - 11:16	MEM	MISS Gay 25' 3PT Jump Shot	16 14.3%	19 85.7%
Q2 - 11:31	SAS	Bonner 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	16 15.2%	19 84.8%
Q2 - 11:48	MEM	Ross Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	16 16.6%	17 83.4%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		16 18.1%	17 81.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM	Lowry 2' Layup (2 PTS)	16 16.6%	17 83.4%
Q1 - 0:05.0	MEM	Grizzlies Rebound	14 14.9%	17 85.1%
Q1 - 0:05.0	SAS	MISS Hill 3' Driving Layup	14 14.6%	17 85.4%
Q1 - 0:09.0	MEM	Bonner STEAL (1 STL)	14 14.0%	17 86.0%
Q1 - 0:31.0	SAS	Hill 1' Layup (4 PTS)	14 14.9%	17 85.1%
Q1 - 0:38.0	MEM	Gasol 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	14 16.5%	15 83.5%
Q1 - 0:56.0	SAS	Bowen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	12 14.9%	15 85.1%
Q1 - 1:09	MEM	Grizzlies Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)	12 14.0%	15 86.0%
Q1 - 1:32	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	12 14.8%	15 85.2%
Q1 - 1:34	SAS	MISS Bonner 5' Running Jump Shot	12 14.6%	15 85.4%
Q1 - 1:49	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	12 14.0%	15 86.0%
Q1 - 1:51	MEM	MISS Warrick 12' Jump Shot	12 14.2%	15 85.8%
Q1 - 2:03	MEM	Lowry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 14.9%	15 85.1%
Q1 - 2:05	SAS	MISS Oberto 10' Jump Bank Shot	12 14.7%	15 85.3%
Q1 - 2:15	MEM	Mayo Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T3)	12 14.0%	15 86.0%
Q1 - 2:25	MEM	Gasol REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	12 14.9%	15 85.1%
Q1 - 2:27	MEM	MISS Lowry 26' 3PT Jump Shot	12 14.3%	15 85.7%
Q1 - 2:56	SAS	Hill Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	12 14.9%	15 85.1%
Q1 - 2:56	SAS	Hill Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	12 15.2%	14 84.8%
Q1 - 3:03	MEM	Mayo Foul Turnover (P1.T2)	12 16.0%	13 84.0%
Q1 - 3:22	MEM	Ross REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 17.3%	13 82.7%
Q1 - 3:23	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	12 17.1%	13 82.9%
Q1 - 3:23	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	12 16.4%	13 83.6%
Q1 - 3:38	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	12 17.3%	12 82.7%
Q1 - 3:39	MEM	MISS Mayo 4' Pullup Bank Shot	12 17.7%	12 82.3%
Q1 - 3:47	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	12 18.7%	12 81.3%
Q1 - 4:16	MEM	Mayo Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	12 21.0%	9 79.0%
Q1 - 4:31	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	9 18.3%	9 81.7%
Q1 - 4:32	SAS	MISS Hill 16' Jump Shot	9 17.9%	9 82.1%
Q1 - 4:50	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	9 17.0%	9 83.0%
Q1 - 4:52	MEM	MISS Milicic 2' Layup	9 17.4%	9 82.6%
Q1 - 5:17	SAS	Ginobili 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Hill 1 AST)	9 18.5%	9 81.5%
Q1 - 5:33	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 19.6%	7 80.4%
Q1 - 5:35	MEM	MISS Ross 16' Jump Shot	9 20.1%	7 79.9%
Q1 - 5:44	MEM	Conley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 21.2%	7 78.8%
Q1 - 5:45	SAS	MISS Ginobili 16' Jump Shot	9 20.7%	7 79.3%
Q1 - 6:03	MEM	Mayo 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	9 19.2%	7 80.8%
Q1 - 6:24	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	7 18.0%	7 82.0%
Q1 - 6:25	SAS	MISS Duncan 13' Jump Shot	7 17.6%	7 82.4%
Q1 - 6:38	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	7 16.7%	7 83.3%
Q1 - 6:40	MEM	MISS Gay 19' Jump Shot	7 17.1%	7 82.9%
Q1 - 7:05	SAS	Oberto 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	7 17.7%	7 82.3%
Q1 - 7:20	MEM	Gay Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T1)	7 18.8%	5 81.2%
Q1 - 7:34	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	7 20.3%	5 79.7%
Q1 - 7:58	SAS	Oberto REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 18.8%	5 81.2%
Q1 - 7:59	MEM	MISS Mayo 15' Jump Shot	7 19.3%	5 80.7%
Q1 - 8:14	SAS	Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Finley 1 AST)	7 19.9%	5 80.1%
Q1 - 8:20	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 22.7%	2 77.3%
Q1 - 8:22	MEM	MISS Gay 5' Jump Shot	7 23.2%	2 76.8%
Q1 - 8:38	MEM	Mayo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 24.3%	2 75.7%
Q1 - 8:40	SAS	MISS Bowen 18' Jump Shot	7 23.8%	2 76.2%
Q1 - 8:55	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	7 22.7%	2 77.3%
Q1 - 8:57	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 21' Jump Shot	7 23.8%	2 76.2%
Q1 - 9:23	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	7 22.3%	2 77.7%
Q1 - 9:24	MEM	MISS Gay 25' 3PT Jump Shot	7 22.7%	2 77.3%
Q1 - 9:31	MEM	Gay REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 23.6%	2 76.4%
Q1 - 9:33	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	7 23.2%	2 76.8%
Q1 - 9:51	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	7 22.3%	2 77.7%
Q1 - 9:53	SAS	MISS Duncan 2' Layup	7 23.2%	2 76.8%
Q1 - 10:17	MEM	Conley 2' Layup (5 PTS)	7 21.5%	2 78.5%
Q1 - 10:24	SAS	Duncan Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	5 20.3%	2 79.7%
Q1 - 10:25	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	5 19.1%	2 80.9%
Q1 - 10:27	SAS	MISS Duncan 9' Jump Shot	5 20.0%	2 80.0%
Q1 - 10:47	MEM	Conley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Mayo 1 AST)	5 19.1%	2 80.9%
Q1 - 11:13	SAS	Finley 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mason Jr. 1 AST)	2 16.5%	2 83.5%
Q1 - 11:32	MEM	Gay 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Conley 1 AST)	2 17.4%	0 82.6%
Q1 - 11:44	SAS	Oberto Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 16.5%	0 83.5%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Milicic: Tip to Oberto	0 15.6%	0 84.4%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.20 59.8%

SAS

1.24 61.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

58%

SAS

78%

Midrange

MEM

58%

SAS

39%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

6.0

36%

55%

SAS

13.5

56%

84%

Free Throws

MEM

83%

SAS

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
O. Mayo	32	76%	16.0 / 21
R. Gay	26	72%	13.0 / 18
M. Conley	13	93%	6.5 / 7
M. Gasol	12	46%	6.0 / 13
D. Milicic	11	69%	5.5 / 8
K. Lowry	2	33%	1.0 / 3
H. Warrick	2	33%	1.0 / 3
Q. Ross	0	-	0.0 / 2
M. Jaric	0	-	0.0 / 1
D. Arthur	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Mason Jr.	20	77%	10.0 / 13
T. Parker	15	68%	7.5 / 11
M. Ginobili	14	70%	7.0 / 10
M. Finley	12	67%	6.0 / 9
G. Hill	12	86%	6.0 / 7
T. Duncan	11	50%	5.5 / 11
K. Thomas	7	88%	3.5 / 4
I. Udoka	5	63%	2.5 / 4
A. Tolliver	5	63%	2.5 / 4
F. Oberto	4	50%	2.0 / 4
M. Bonner	4	50%	2.0 / 4
B. Bowen	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

-13

SAS

+12

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.20 59.8%

SAS

1.24 61.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	103.4 108.3	MEM 112.6 SAS 125.3 +12.6
Pace	90.3 88.7	MEM 85.9 SAS 88.2 +2.3
Avg. Poss. Time	16.2 16.5	MEM 16.8 SAS 16.3 +0.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.6% 51.3%	MEM 57.1% SAS 62.5% +5.4%
TO %	15.6% 12.4%	MEM 14.5% SAS 13.2% +1.3%
ORB %	25.9% 22.2%	MEM 20.0% SAS 27.3% +7.3%
FTrt	32.9 25.1	MEM 15.6 SAS 27.6 +12.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	49.7% 57.1%	MEM 33.3% SAS 72.1% +38.8%
STL %	8.2% 6.5%	MEM 6.9% +1.2% SAS 5.7%
BLK %	7.9% 6.1%	MEM 5.0% +3.5% SAS 1.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.46 and 2.46.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	51.5% 53.4%	MEM 59.8% SAS 61.9% +2.1%
Rim FG%	55.3% 58.8%	MEM 57.6% SAS 77.8% +20.2%
Mid FG%	40.9% 42.7%	MEM 57.6% +18.2% SAS 39.4%
3P %	36.0% 38.6%	MEM 36.4% SAS 56.3% +19.9%
FT %	75.6% 76.2%	MEM 83.3% +16.6% SAS 66.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.2% 30.3%	MEM 42.9% +7.3% SAS 35.5%
Mid Att. %	45.3% 44.9%	MEM 42.9% +0.6% SAS 43.4%
3P Att. %	17.5% 24.8%	MEM 14.3% SAS 21.1% +6.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	SAS
Possessions	87	87
Possession Minutes	24.3	23.7
Points	98	109
Rebounds	31	37
Assists	14	31
Steals	6	5
Blocks	3	1
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	12 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (1)	9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	24 (1)	28 (1)
Field Goals	42-77	43-76
At-the-Rim FG	19-33	21-27
Midrange FG	19-33	13-33
2-Point FG	38-66	34-60
3-Point FG	4-11	9-16
Free Throws	10-12	14-21
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

Access to boxscore predictions requires a premium subscription.

29 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 22	43.3	26	72%	6	0	1	0	3	5	0	6	3-3	100%	10-12	83%	1-5	20%
O.J. Mayo G · 6'5" 210 · 21	42.1	32	76%	4	4	3	0	3	3	0	4	4-5	80%	11-17	65%	2-3	67%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 24	33.1	12	46%	6	1	0	1	1	2	4	2	2-2	100%	5-12	42%	0-0	-
Darko Milicic F · 7'0" 275 · 23	30.5	11	69%	6	1	0	1	0	4	2	4	1-2	50%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 21	29.7	13	93%	2	4	1	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	5-6	83%	1-1	100%
Kyle Lowry G · 6'0" 196 · 23	24.4	2	33%	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Quinton Ross F-G · 6'6" 193 · 28	12.8	0	0%	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 26	9.1	2	33%	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Marko Jaric G · 6'7" 224 · 30	8.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 21	6.3	0	0%	3	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-0	-
Javaris Crittenton G · 6'5" 200 · 21
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 32
Antoine Walker #8 · F · 6'9" 245 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Hamed Haddadi #15 · C · 7'2" 265 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	60%	31	14	6	3	13	0	7	24	10-12	83%	38-66	58%	4-11	36%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

29 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gay F · 6'8" 230 · 22	43.3	26	72%	6	0	1	0	3	5	0	6	3-3	100%	10-12	83%	1-5	20%
O.J. Mayo G · 6'5" 210 · 21	42.1	32	76%	4	4	3	0	3	3	0	4	4-5	80%	11-17	65%	2-3	67%
Marc Gasol C · 7'1" 255 · 24	33.1	12	46%	6	1	0	1	1	2	4	2	2-2	100%	5-12	42%	0-0	-
Darko Milicic F · 7'0" 275 · 23	30.5	11	69%	6	1	0	1	0	4	2	4	1-2	50%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Mike Conley G · 6'0" 175 · 21	29.7	13	93%	2	4	1	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	5-6	83%	1-1	100%
Kyle Lowry G · 6'0" 196 · 23	24.4	2	33%	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Quinton Ross F-G · 6'6" 193 · 28	12.8	0	0%	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Hakim Warrick F · 6'9" 219 · 26	9.1	2	33%	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Marko Jaric G · 6'7" 224 · 30	8.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 21	6.3	0	0%	3	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-0	-
Javaris Crittenton G · 6'5" 200 · 21
Greg Buckner G · 6'4" 210 · 32
Antoine Walker #8 · F · 6'9" 245 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Hamed Haddadi #15 · C · 7'2" 265 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	60%	31	14	6	3	13	0	7	24	10-12	83%	38-66	58%	4-11	36%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

10 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 28	35.2	20	77%	3	5	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	4-6	67%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 33	31.1	11	50%	12	2	0	1	2	2	4	8	3-6	50%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Michael Finley G · 6'7" 225 · 36	27.5	12	67%	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-4	50%
Fabricio Oberto C · 6'10" 245 · 34	23.1	4	50%	4	3	0	0	2	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 37	15.3	0	0%	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 23	24.5	12	86%	3	7	1	0	0	3	2	1	6-6	100%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 31	20.8	14	70%	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	2-4	50%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 27	16.6	15	68%	1	7	1	0	2	1	0	1	3-5	60%	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 31	16.3	5	63%	1	1	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-1	100%
Matt Bonner C-F · 6'10" 235 · 29	13.0	4	50%	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36	9.2	7	88%	3	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Tolliver F · 6'8" 240 · 23	7.6	5	63%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jacque Vaughn #11 · G · 6'1" 190 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Blake Ahearn #19 · G · 6'2" 190 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	62%	37	31	5	1	12	0	9	28	14-21	67%	34-60	57%	9-16	56%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE